Ivan, stay away!! Posted by Derrell (Member # 6062) on :
*sends out Ivan will miss Florida vibes* Ivan will not hit Florida, Ivan will not hit Florida.
Posted by Chaeron (Member # 744) on :
Climate change: absurd liberal myth!
Posted by newfoundlogic (Member # 3907) on :
Well, its official, Ivan is predicted to hit Florida in less than a week.
Posted by JaimeBenlevy (Member # 6222) on :
Is it me or does every single hurricane hit Cuba? I bet the next hurricane is going to miss Cuba, then stop and turn around saying "Wait! I forgot Cuba!" I'm really starting to feel bad for those people.
Posted by newfoundlogic (Member # 3907) on :
It'll still be a 'cane, maybe a weak one, but those little islands won't batter it too badly.
Posted by newfoundlogic (Member # 3907) on :
Great, if the damn storm follows its current path, one week from now its going to go around the peninsula and strike the panhandle at its closest point to Tallahasse and with its time in the gulf it should be plenty powerful when it hits me. I hate this season.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
quote:Elsewhere, Ivan pulverized concrete homes into piles of rubble and tore away hundreds of the island's landmark red zinc roofs.
The storm strengthened even as it hit Grenada, becoming a Category 4, and got even stronger Wednesday, packing sustained winds of 140 mph with higher gusts as it headed across the Caribbean Sea and passed north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
It's expected to go into the gulf - it may or may not hit Florida, too early to tell. If it does go into the gulf, it could veer west and hit Missisippi or Alabam Gulf coast or LA or Texas. That would give the Floridians a break, but not be so good for the other folks.
Posted by Happy Camper (Member # 5076) on :
Oh, dear. This isn't looking good at all. 160 mph sustained max winds. Though it's still about 4 days away, and a lot can happen in that time. Jamaica looks like it's in for a beating though.
[ September 09, 2004, 06:55 AM: Message edited by: Happy Camper ]
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
20 people dead in Greneda, Jamaica looking like it's going to be next.
And Jamaica probably won't weaken it.
Scary, scary stuff.
[ September 09, 2004, 10:14 AM: Message edited by: Dagonee ]
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Category 5, and very dangerous - after Jamaica, there is great uncertainty where it will go but is expected to continue moving N-NW.
All you coastal folks, better be checking your supplies and reviewing your evacuation routes. If it stays this strong, no one wants to be home when it makes landfall.
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
Five day forecast has it hitting Tampa and then proceding on to Orlando area.
I honestly believe many people are going to move if this one hits Central Florida.
Posted by Tammy (Member # 4119) on :
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
My wife has wanted us to move to FL for several years now, but this string of hurricanes has finally changed her mind.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
It's way too soon to assume certain cities or even states will be affected - the NWS readily admits five day hurricane forecasts are highly unreliable.
(not that I'm being critical of you posting the five day estimate - I am a storm junkie and love following big storms - I just don't love what happens when they hit )
I hope I don't offend my Floridian friends when I say that hurricanes bring back some nice memories for me - my grandfather used to have one of the old magnetic tracking boards, and he'd get the latest latitude and longitude numbers on the storm's position and plot it. He taught me navigational skills that way.
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
I'm aware of the unreliability, Belle. It's still very depressing that they're even plotting it this way.
As far as the magnetic tracking board, I've never heard of that. Can you find a link that shows one and how it operates?
Posted by Tstorm (Member # 1871) on :
Yeah, four days ago, they had this storm pegged to begin turning northwest, up toward Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. Instead, it's kept up it's churn to the west, ever steadily. Every update, the forecasters insist it will begin turning to the north. I'm sure it will, but when? That makes the difference.
The forecast discussion indicates this storm will most likely peak in intensity soon, then decrease a little. Hurricanes fluctuate in their intensity due to many factors.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Oh it was nothing big. Just a magnetic surface with a map of the tropics and the southeastern US, and the longitude and latitude lines. There were a bunch of little hurricane-swirl shaped magnets.
You put a magnet for every position, and you could follow the hurricane's track.
Just a neat way for a grandfather to teach his grandkids about navigation.
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
They are already talking about the possibility of evacuations in the Florida keys, south of me...
Looks like it will hit the west coast of Florida, not the east coast, where I am. But we are certainly keeping an eye on this storm in south Florida.
[ September 09, 2004, 02:27 PM: Message edited by: Ela ]
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Oh, Ela, I'm sorry. Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
It's not a possibility, Ela. They are evacuating the keys and Monroe county right now.
Belle, this sounds stupid, but I had this mental picture of, like, some kind of ouija board that actually pointed at the hurricane miles away by some kind of super secret magnetic technology your family has kept hidden for thousands of years.
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
Everyone in Florida please stay safe. This thing is getting scarier - as Belle said it's up to Cat 5.
Why are my parents moving to Florida again?
Dagonee
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
Hey, Ela. Did I ever tell you that when I was young, my family used to have a cat named Sam? Then we got a cockatiel and named it Ella? So, we could tell people we'd made pets of Sam 'n' Ella?
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
If it goes west-northwest it could also hit Mississippi Gulf Coast where my mother-in-law lives. That would not be cool.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Storm Saxon, that sounds really cool. Makes me think of a possible story line, involving families that possess super technology that they only pass down to their descendants...making everyone else dependent on them.
Can you give us the gist of the Miami Herald article? It requires registration.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
How flexible are most employers in FL about people taking off due to hurricanes? If I lived where Ela does, I think I'd probably be inclined to take off and drive north at the drop of a hat, and to try to do it early enough to avoid all of the evacuation gridlock.
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
quote:It's not a possibility, Ela. They are evacuating the keys and Monroe county right now.
Yeah, Storm, I was just looking at that Miami Herald article before you posted the link.
Looks like Miami can expect something - hope it's not the full force. I read in the Herald today that Ivan knocked down concrete houses in Grenada.
Btw, Storm, where are you in Florida?
Posted by BannaOj (Member # 3206) on :
hmm was looking around at the noaa website and Frances is now officially a "tropical depression" We might actually get a little rain from it here, but not much.
(oh wait probably none at all) They meant the eastern "Great Lakes region"
AJ
[ September 09, 2004, 02:44 PM: Message edited by: BannaOj ]
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
quote:Hey, Ela. Did I ever tell you that when I was young, my family used to have a cat named Sam? Then we got a cockatiel and named it Ella? So, we could tell people we'd made pets of Sam 'n' Ella?
Ouch.
No, Storm, you never told me that. Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
We got rain and some mini-tornados near DC from Frances.
Dagonee
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
quote:How flexible are most employers in FL about people taking off due to hurricanes? If I lived where Ela does, I think I'd probably be inclined to take off and drive north at the drop of a hat, and to try to do it early enough to avoid all of the evacuation gridlock.
Noemen, that is really impractical and inadvisable, as hurricanes can change direction and you could end up stuck on the road in hurricane force winds. Plus, it would make evacuation for those who really need to leave difficult to impossible.
Keep in mind that Florida is a very long state, full day's drive just to get out from down here. No employer would give that much time off, for as many storms as come each season, each watched carefully by the local populace, and most not hitting here, at least in recent years.
[ September 09, 2004, 02:47 PM: Message edited by: Ela ]
Posted by Bokonon (Member # 480) on :
My fiancee has a friend who lives on the Cayman Islands. Needless to say, she's just a tad worried (both the friend and my fiancee).
-Bok
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
That's what I thought Ela. I think I'm glad I don't live down there. I'd much rather deal with avoiding the occasional tornado than avoiding hurricanes every year.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
My husband was raised on the gulf coast and went through Camille.
It's not a name that is used in polite conversation down there. Posted by BannaOj (Member # 3206) on :
Did Celia know they named a hurricane after her this year? (it was in the Pacific)
In today's paper, Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, was quoted as saying, "Would someone please turn off the hurricane switch?"
I have to say, I couldn't agree more...
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
quote:Hey, Ela. Did I ever tell you that when I was young, my family used to have a cat named Sam? Then we got a cockatiel and named it Ella? So, we could tell people we'd made pets of Sam 'n' Ella?
lol--I have two students who are best friends named Sam and Emma, and they refer to themselves as salmonella!
Noemon,
My employers (the school district) gave teachers and students (note: not maintenance staff) Friday off when Frances came. Now Ivan stalled, but if you recall, hurricane force winds were supposed to start hitting Central Florida at 10 am Friday. So when were people supposed to board up their houses?! I went to Tampa Wednesday night to buy plywood, and took a personal day Thursday to put it up. I do resent having had to use a personal day to protect my house.
It seems to me that both before and after this storm, they did not give thought to the needs of their employees, but only the condition of the schools themselves.
I did evacuate. I left Thursday night. (I got up at 6 am Thursday and worked until 7:30 or 8 pm, and then drove until 3 or 4 the next afternoon.) I ignored the requests that those not in mandatory evacuation zones stay home. I understand their logistical reasons, but I find the request inappropriate, since they are advising a dangerous course of action. And yes, evacuating is also dangerous. So warn people about the risks either way, and let people decide for themselves.
I didn't contribute to the traffic or people who needed to evacuate, because I have lived in Florida all my life and know the backroads like the palm of my hand. I stayed off of I-95, I-75, and the Turnpike, and took back roads instead. It was the first time I have ever fled a storm--I didn't even consider leaving for Charley--but I couldn't deal with the stress of back to back storms wth inadequate insurance, after having been in a house as it was demolished by Andrew. For five years or so after Andrew, I had occasional flashbacks. Eventually, they went away, but the last month or so has brought them back, and I'm just not up to dealing with it again any more than I absolutely have to. (It's not simply the threat of hurricanes. In Miami, Cor and I had to board up for several hurricanes and hunker down. It's this repeated pounding of the specific part of Florida in which I live that has me filled with this irrational sense that it's somehow personal.) So yeah, if Ivan approaches closely, we will get out again.
EDIT: See what I mean, Ela?!
[ September 09, 2004, 03:38 PM: Message edited by: Icarus ]
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
Just for the record, many businesses here gave their employees off to give them time to prepare for Hurricane Frances (I know that's what you meant, Icky, you accidentally typed "Ivan")- at that time tropical storm force winds were expected by Friday during the day. Dade and Broward County schools were closed Thursday and Friday.
Personally, I don't evacuate unless a hurricane warning is in effect (at which point, I am in a mandatory evacuation zone, even for a category 1).
I have to agree with Joe that Andrew is the worst hurricane I have ever experienced - I have no desire to go through something like that again.
[ September 09, 2004, 03:37 PM: Message edited by: Ela ]
Posted by zgator (Member # 3833) on :
We were given Friday off for Frances and Friday afternoon off for Charley. If people needed to leave before hand to get supplies, board up their house or leave, they could do so, but they had to use vacation time.
Or do like me and bring the work home with you. Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
[ September 10, 2004, 11:01 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
*best wishes and prayers for all the Floridians*
*prefers earthquakes!*
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Stormtrack, probability charts, windspeeds, etc of Hurricane Ivan Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
This latest satellite image has me more convinced than ever that some cosmic force is gunning specifically for me. Posted by katharina (Member # 827) on :
Wow.
It's been good knowing you, Icky. Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Another good StormTrack site. I think you have to click amongst the links -- Tracking, 5DayForecast, etc, ComputerModels -- to get a refresh for the latest map.
Posted by Goody Scrivener (Member # 6742) on :
Whoa, there's three storms in that picture... which one is which?
Goody
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
Hmm. Goody, have I mentioned I live in Orlando?
(*sigh* I've been away too long.)
Posted by Goody Scrivener (Member # 6742) on :
Yes, Icarus, I did know you were at least near Orlando, wasn't sure if you were actually within city limits.
After posting earlier, though, I found this on NHC: Current satellite imagery Maybe that other image was a composite or something?
Goody
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
::smacks forehead::
Goody, dear, look at the URL on my image . . .
You see, there is this famous tourist attraction near us . . . Posted by Goody Scrivener (Member # 6742) on :
oh DUH!!!!!!!!!!! I never even realized the similarity to The Ears......
Think I need a nap..... LOL
Goody
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
(I'm an obsessive Disney freak, btw.)
Posted by Goody Scrivener (Member # 6742) on :
The worst part, Icarus, is that I DID see Mickey in the URL the first time! Since I didn't think we were up to the 13th named storm of the year yet, I went to NHC to look up the list of names and saw a different M name... and then my mind did a complete disconnect and failed to pursue it any further.
[ September 13, 2004, 11:42 PM: Message edited by: Icarus ]
Posted by newfoundlogic (Member # 3907) on :
Yay, its not going to hit Tallahassee! Sorry and good luck 'Bama.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Icarus:
quote:Awesome! I just bought four of the bumper stickers!
Hopefully you will still have a car to put them on...
Glad to see you are OK though.
Kwea
Posted by PSI Teleport (Member # 5545) on :
It's pointed at my dad in Mobile.
My parents are not having good luck.
Nor is my, um, Tatiana.
(Um, I just read the "nads" comment. *shudder* I don't have any and it still hurts.)
[ September 14, 2004, 12:11 AM: Message edited by: PSI Teleport ]
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
Did you look at the map?
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
Wouldn't the worst case scenario be that it hits New Orleans?
Posted by PSI Teleport (Member # 5545) on :
Ic: Yes.
(Hey, your name shortened is like a fish disease. That's interesting.)
Posted by Book (Member # 5500) on :
From Dave Barry's website:
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS UPDATE If you're girding, bracing and hunkering, you'll appreciate this email we received from a Miami Herald colleague, full of practical advice:
Given the current weather patterns I am recommending that all my friends get the following supplies and immediately put them in the trunk of their car or stow them in a safe place in their home.
1) A length of rope long enough to HANG yourself if you wind up trapped for three days in a shuttered house listening to the same blathering nitwits on TV or radio,standing outside with a microphone mouthing variations of "yep...it is windy...only an IDIOT would be out HERE".
2) Bottle of tequila, margarita mix and box of kosher salt.
3) Several cases of beer (preferable Guinness which can be consumed warm if necessary).
4) Pistol (this is Florida...it is always a good idea to have a pistol).
5) A garbage bag full of sleeping pills.
6) Scrabble AND a dictionary (the dictionary is really necessary because otherwise disputes may be settled with use if emergency item #4).
7) Carl Hiaasen books and a flashlight.
8) Tim Dorsey books and extra batteries.
9) Shotgun (this is Florida...it is always a good idea to have a shotgun).
Patrick Ogle Miami Herald/Action Line
Posted by ak (Member # 90) on :
Woo! Hurrican party at my house! All those who didn't want to miss this storm, here's the place to be.
Icky, do you have some plywood I can borrow?
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
After all those admonitions for other people to leave, are you staying in the path of the hurricane?
Posted by zgator (Member # 3833) on :
ak, you can have my one sheet of plywood. I wonder how many stamps I should stick on it.
Posted by ak (Member # 90) on :
Hahahaha, by the time it gets all the way up here it's supposed to be just a tropical storm, so only 75 mph winds, no big deal!
I really appreciate the plywood, zan. I think you'd better put a lotta stamps on it!
[ September 14, 2004, 11:58 AM: Message edited by: ak ]
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Well this is just great. I've got family on Dauphin Island (Mobile Bay) and in Gulfport MS. Both are in mandatory evacuation.
It IS weakening though. That's a good sign, maybe it will lose some teeth before it makes landfall.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Okay, smart people, help me.
What do these probability numbers really mean? Does it mean there is a 25% chance the eye will pass within 65 miles of Gulfport?
Yes, that's a correct reading Belle.
Posted by newfoundlogic (Member # 3907) on :
Number 4 or 5 depending on whether you count Bonnie. Jeanne Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
This Strike Probability Map is a bit more readable than a list of names and numbers.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Man I'm ticked at my mother in law. She refuses to leave, saying "Your daddy never left." Well, Wes' father couldn't leave, he was a cop during Camille and with the Air Force during the others.
She has no clue what to do now, Wes' father passed away in January. She says she can stay and not worry about it. She refused Wes and his brother-in-law when they tried to come down there board up the hosue, and pick her up. Now it's too late, he can't get down there to get her now. And she's not answering her phone or her cell phone.
She got mad, at his sister, and is now refusing to speak to any of them. How selfish is that?? Her kids are only concerned about her.
Now my husband is a nervous wreck. He called the sheriff's dept, to try and get someone to get over there and check on her, make sure she has left. But no one knows where she is.
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
That sucks, Belle. Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Yeah it does. She's not behaving rationally, and her kids are all freaking.
My mother just called, she is the HR director for a supermarket chain, to tell me the stores are reporting they are out of bread and milk, and need extra cashiers ASAP. The stores are being overrun, in Birmingham.
Of course, over-reacting to weather reports is a local pastime here.
True, they expect us to get some pretty high winds and all, but I don't think we're going to be holed up for months without power or anything.
Posted by TheTick (Member # 2883) on :
Ah yes, I remember that from the near misses when I lived in Virginia Beach. I worked at a grocery store then...pretty brutal.
Posted by zgator (Member # 3833) on :
Ok, please help me out here - why, the frag, do people buy bread and milk when expecting storms and power outages?
-Trevor
Posted by zgator (Member # 3833) on :
As long as you've prepared, you can keep milk for a few days after the power goes out. Before Frances came through, our freezer was basically wall to wall ice blocks.
Also, a generator will keep your fridge going. The stores usually have generators and will reopen quickly, but they won't have cold storage. If you want milk and you have a generator, you better get it now.
![[No No]](graemlins/nono.gif)
![[Frown]](frown.gif)
![[Angst]](graemlins/angst.gif)
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
![[Evil]](graemlins/evil.gif)
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
![[Wall Bash]](graemlins/wallbash.gif)
![[ROFL]](graemlins/rofl.gif)
![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)