This is topic Election Prediction: Ohio is the new Florida in forum Books, Films, Food and Culture at Hatrack River Forum.


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Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
 
This thread is for those willing to make election predictions.

I predict Ohio will be to this election what Florida was in 2000.

Some of you may remember last summer I claimed to have predicted that Florida was the key state in the 2000 election. What I meant was, several analysts had stated that Florida would be the bellweather for the election--i.e., whoever won Florida would win the overall election.

I agreed with them, for several reasons. Florida has unique demographics that make it a good microcosm for the country as a whole, probably the best state of it's population range for modeling the country. The governor of Florida was the brother of one of the candidates. Both sides saw Florida as a key swing state, and threw many resources at it. It was going to be a very close and contested state

Of course, I didn't think it would be so close it would lead to all the chaos that ensued, nobody could have predicted that--it was a statistical fluke that the state was that close.

This year, Ohio is in play. Unemployment has risen dramatically, as have registered voters. The secretary of state is a Bush campaign official, and has made some controversial decisions. It is a statistical dead heat in most recent polls. Both candidates have saturated the media, and have made numerous campaign stops. Oft-quoted is the fact that no republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.

I think Ohio will be close, and will be a bellweather or predictor of who wins--whoever wins Ohio will win overall. Also, I think it could be close enough to lead to election litigation.

I think the election overall is too close to call, but I hope and pray Kerry wins.

I will try and make other predictions before Tuesday.

Anybody else willing to make predictions??
The gauntlet has been thrown!

[ October 27, 2004, 03:47 PM: Message edited by: Morbo ]
 

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Posted by TMedina (Member # 6649) on :
 
Yeah, I keep thinking George Bush's range of facial expressions remind me of a cocker spaniel watching porn.

When Kerry smiles, I keep looking for Sigourney Weaver to run by with an assault rifle and a dazed marine.

That plastic chin reminds me of someone...the devil from "Legend?"

-Trevor
 

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Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
 
Ohio was even more crucial than I expected. Well, it's some solace to me that I was right about Ohio, even though I voted for Kerry and predicted in another thread Kerry would win. And I am glad to be wrong about extensive litigation in Ohio.

An Ohio reporter I saw after I posted this thread called the phrase "Ohio is the new Florida" a cliche. So I was not alone in my prediction. However, I based it on a NY Times story along with a few other news stories, I didn't research it. If I had I would have seen that Ohio has been a bellweather state very often.
 

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Posted by newfoundlogic (Member # 3907) on :
 
Actually as it turns out there wasn't a new "Florida." Bush won Ohio by a significant margin and the only reason why networks held out in calling Ohio was because Pennsylvania and Florida had already been called earlier. Fox and NBC had already done the math and weren't waiting for a Kerry consession unlike CNN, ABC, and CBS.
 

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Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
 

quote:

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the only reason why networks held out in calling Ohio was because Pennsylvania and Florida had already been called earlier.

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