I'm thinking we need a place that we can collect various reporting agencies results and projections, for both the presidential race, but for any Senate race (there are a few humdingers there!).
I'll start:
ABC is reporting IN, KY, GA for Bush, and VT for Kerry, basically without waiting for any official tallies. It appears SC and VA are a bit more interesting, and the media is holding off on them.
These were the 7PM poll-ending states.
-Bok
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Looks like WV for Bush, according to CNN and Fox.
Posted by Bokonon (Member # 480) on :
CNN and ABC all have IN, GA, KY, and now WV for Bush. VT is projected for Kerry.
VA, NC, SC, and OH are all closed/closing, but not winners projected yet.
-Bok
Posted by Phanto (Member # 5897) on :
Ack!!!!
But what does it all mean? I'm assuming nothing unexpected has happened yet? Were those states all predicted to go that way?
Posted by dkw (Member # 3264) on :
Yes, those are as predicted.
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
So far the GOP has gained one electoral vote they did not win in 2000. Other then that, these states are going the same way they did last election.
It's 5 states. It means nothing. Ohio, however, is a swing state, and when it's declared that might mean something. Ohio went to Bush in 2000. If Kerry gets it this year, I'd bet he wins.
[ November 02, 2004, 07:44 PM: Message edited by: ElJay ]
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Ohio is a BIG state this year, no doubt about it. All of the recaps I have seen about this election have mentioned how crucial Ohio is this year....it won't decide the election by itself, but if Kerry wins it it is a huge blow to the Bush Campaign...
Kwea
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Whoever wins Ohio has won the presidency for the last how many times running? I can't remember, but it's, like, the swing state in a lot of people's minds.
Posted by cochick (Member # 6167) on :
Eljay - so was Ohio won by the guy that won the overall election or the one who actually became President last time?
[ November 02, 2004, 08:00 PM: Message edited by: cochick ]
Posted by Godric (Member # 4587) on :
NBC says that in the last (I think it was) hundred years no Republican who has lost Ohio has won the election...
Posted by Xaposert (Member # 1612) on :
Virginia will go Kerry!
"It's my island!"
Posted by Bokonon (Member # 480) on :
The consensus is now 77 to 66 for Kerry, electorally.
No surprises... Now NBC is declaring NC for Bush.
-Bok
Posted by Vadon (Member # 4561) on :
Sound like Kerry got Ohio...
Posted by Bokonon (Member # 480) on :
ABC and NBC have NC for Bush, Fox News is declaring SC for Bush.
-Bok
Posted by Bokonon (Member # 480) on :
VA is now being projected to Bush, from ABC and CNN.
-Bok
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
CNN hasn't declared Ohio yet, and on the radio on my way home they said they still have hundreds of people in line at many polling places... anyone in line when the polls officially close gets to vote.
Posted by Godric (Member # 4587) on :
Ha! Tucker Carlson : "I hope it ends early, I want to go to dinner."
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
J Kerry -- 188 total California 55 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 Dist of Col 3 Illinois 21 Maine [3?] Maryland 10 Massachusetts 12 New Jersey 15 New York 31 Pennsylvania 21 Rhode Island 4 Vermont 3
Who is left, how much do they have, and when do the polls close (or when can the tally be expected)?
7:30pm Eastern Time Ohio 20 *** swing state
8pm Eastern Time Florida 27 *** swing state New Hampshire 4 Pennsylvania 21 *** swing state
9pm Eastern Time Arizona 10 Colorado 9 Michigan 17 *** swing state Minnesota 10 New Mexico 5 Wisconsin 10 *** swing state
10pm Eastern Time Iowa 7 Montana 3 Nevada 5
11pm Eastern Time Hawaii 4 Oregon 7 Washington St 11
1am Eastern Time Alaska 3
[ November 02, 2004, 11:11 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
CNN is 102 to 77, Bush. Oklahoma just got added, not sure which other states haven't been mentioned yet...
Edit: but Sara knows!
[ November 02, 2004, 08:49 PM: Message edited by: ElJay ]
Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
What time did the polls close in OK, anyway? Or after the one single Kerry voter in the state got home, did he just call the networks and say, "Okay, you can call the state now. I'm done."
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Holy.. a whole strip, North Dakota straight down to Texas just painted red...
Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :
Every time I look at the map of the US I'm glad that your elections are not decided by surface area of states won by each candidate.
Posted by sarcasticmuppet (Member # 5035) on :
quote: "It's my island!"
Isn't that Ireland?
Posted by Jutsa Notha Name (Member # 4485) on :
CNN has Bush projected as maintaining a solid lead over Kerry, both popular and electoral votes.
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
On TV, Justa? They don't have that on the web yet...
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
quote:Bush(Incumbent) popular vote -- 11,181,104 (54%) electoral vote -- 155
Kerry popular vote -- 9,597,542 (46%) electoral vote -- 77
Nader popular vote -- 45,334 (0%) electoral vote -- 0
Of note, thought, is that this is not unexpected. This is the measure of the lead up til this time -- not counting many heavily populated states still to come in and expected to swing blue.
No real news yet.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
The Republican party is reporting that they have made big gains in Central Florida counties over their 2000 totals. Fox News verified the numbers. Bush is leading Florida, and contrary to the exit polling, looks like he may pick it up.
Kerry's only hope is that there is enough turnout in heavily democratic counties remaining to offset the gains Bush has made.
Exit polling is proving to be quite unreliable so far... much better to ignore it and look at actual numbers.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Now 170 to 112.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Is Maine 3 or 4 electoral votes? I'm getting 113, not 112...
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
There's something weird about Maine. I don't know the details but there are four total but it's possible they can be split? I heard something about that.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
That is odd. CNN's main webpage on Maine lists it as 4 votes (3rd line under red bold "PRESIDENT"), but the total tally lists it at 3.
quote:Under state law, Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one apiece to the winner in each of its congressional districts. The state has not split its electoral votes since adopting that system in 1969.
[ November 02, 2004, 09:43 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :
Yeah, Maine is one of the states that splits is electoral votes up.
Edit: At least, that's what I heard on... um... NBC? CBS? CNN? One of those. They were talking about it an hour and a half ago, roughly.
[ November 02, 2004, 09:42 PM: Message edited by: twinky ]
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Yeah... Yahoo has only 3/4 for Kerry, but CNN has Maine with only 3 total.
[Edit] Belle, you're right... according to http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm , Maine has 4. Maine and Nebraska can both split their electoral votes.
quote: Whichever party slate wins the most popular votes in the State becomes that State's Electors-so that, in effect, whichever presidential ticket gets the most popular votes in a State wins all the Electors of that State. [The two exceptions to this are Maine and Nebraska where two Electors are chosen by statewide popular vote and the remainder by the popular vote within each Congressional district].
[ November 02, 2004, 09:51 PM: Message edited by: Defenestraitor ]
Posted by Phanto (Member # 5897) on :
News from Kerry Central:
As reported by Mike Barnicale (SP?), the Kerry campaign's polling shows that he is doing VERY well in both Ohio and Pensylvania.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
You know, my visceral loathing for that clot of red states always amazes me when I see it. I mean, seriously, I hate those states. It's like in those old propaganda films by Disney when the Axis octopus spreads its dark, inky tentacles across the globe, and you feel both pity and revulsion for the countries touched. Maybe we can call it the Pecan Pie Belt or something. Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
It is mostly empty land voting there. This made more sense when we were an agricultural-based economy and when most farmland, although making for empty space, represented real individual investment, and thus real individuals.
Most of that empty space doesn't represent individual interests anymore.
[ November 02, 2004, 10:00 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
I just wish something would happen. I know it's good that they haven't declared the close states yet, 'cause they're being careful, but at the same time I want them to get on with it!
Posted by Megan (Member # 5290) on :
Oh, I have a strong feeling nothing will be decided before tomorrow morning at the earliest.
Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
I'm not sure they'll be able to call Pennsylvania. There have been widespread irregularities there, from what I'm hearing, and I wouldn't expect that state to be resolved any time soon.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
CNN website just called Utah for Bush. NPR hasn't.
[Edit] NPR just pegged Utah and Montana for Bush. Yahoo website just called Utah for Bush. (I realize this isn't very surprising...)
[ November 02, 2004, 10:04 PM: Message edited by: Defenestraitor ]
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
The Daily Show's "Election Night 2004: Prelude to a Recount" is up and running.
Alabama went 51% to 48%? A lot closer than I expected. Huh.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
176 to 112 per CNN
[ November 02, 2004, 10:08 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
What gets me about so many of the Evil Octopus states is that their people are so pro-Bush that it's possible to call them a minute or two after their polls close, probably just by eyeballing the pile.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Alabama was oddly close, though.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Alabama... huh.
Florida meanwhile has 78% of precints reporting according to CNN. So far it's 52-47 Bush.
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
CNN's up to 182 - 112.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
182 to 112
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
jinx!
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm calling Ohio for Bush, no one else is yet, but the percentage has remained the same for the last 600, 700 thousand votes (52-47)
Hobbes Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Sh^%, now it's 193! What changed?
Posted by Boris (Member # 6935) on :
On another note, FOX is reporting Bush up by 2 million votes (Not that the number of votes actually matters)
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
[scooped by the hellspawn kitten]
[ November 02, 2004, 10:17 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Ah, Louisiana and Arkansas. Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Hobbes, I think you might be right. Pennsylvania seems to be the only swing state moving towards Kerry. But it's also still too soon.
CNN just called Missouri and Arkansas for Bush. Again, no big surprises yet...
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
How is Alabama close? According to the data, 60% Bush, 39% Kerry. I don't call that close.
Edit:data, not date.
[ November 02, 2004, 10:20 PM: Message edited by: Belle ]
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Yahoo also reports Bush is ahead by 1.9 million popular votes.
It's also pegged Montana for Bush.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Ah, I was going by the fake news.
(That was in my Daily Show post. The rest was sarcasm. Beg your pardon, I really do. I didn't realize I was being un-obvious -- mea culpa.)
[ November 02, 2004, 10:21 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
I like looking at the county by county data. By that, I'm almost 100% certain Bush will carry Florida. He is still ahead, and the majority of Broward and Miami-Dade precincts are in. Those are the ones that were supposed to push Kerry over, and they haven't yet.
I'm starting to feel cautiously optimistic.
Posted by Synesthesia (Member # 4774) on :
About projected votes... What does that mean exactly?
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Barack Obama wins [76% to 22%]!
[ November 02, 2004, 10:23 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :
You're definitely watching The Daily Show, Sara. Posted by Synesthesia (Member # 4774) on :
Good for him. I dislike Alan Keyes.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
JStewart had 88 to 10, CNN has 76 to 22. I'll weight to CNN.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Broward county: 87% of precincts reporting Kerry: 385,395 (65%) Bush: 197,852 (34%)
Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
I know no one really cares. But Indiana just got its first Republican governor in 20 years. Our House votes are surprisingly close too.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
New Hampshire sure is taking a long time for a small, non-swing state, eh?
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Sara, I was just noticing that. It's still split 50-50 and only reports 50%.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
I have no frequin' idea, Defenestraitor.
Posted by cochick (Member # 6167) on :
BBC News (England) has is standing at:
Bush: 197 Kerry: 112
with 33 of 51 states called, inc DC
EDIT: Bush went up one
[ November 02, 2004, 10:39 PM: Message edited by: cochick ]
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Meanwhile South Carolina's senate seat just went to Jim DeMint (R).
Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
New Hampshire is a non-swing state?
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm calling Ohio and Fl for Bush and Pa for Kerry.
Hobbes Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
I'm calling Ohio for Kerry, FL for Bush, and PA we're never going to know.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Just heard on NPR:
Kerry is likely to take the popular vote in Maine (2 electoral votes), then the first congressional district in the more urban, liberal south. But Bush just might be able to take the northern congressional district which is more rural and conservative. In 2000 he only lost that district by 6,000 votes to Gore.
Posted by Glaphyra the Righteous (Member # 6995) on :
Heck, I don't know about NH, Mike. I'd buy anything right now. I am so going to send my husband to get me a beer.
Your bum is the greatest thing about you; so that in the beastliest sense, you are Pompey the Great. Repent, one and all.
[which is, of course, from Measure for Measure, and no reflection at all on Mike, who -- though I'm sure he has a fine bum -- has many greater things about him]
[ November 02, 2004, 10:51 PM: Message edited by: Glaphyra the Righteous ]
Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
CNN just called Kerry for PA
Posted by Glaphyra the Righteous (Member # 6995) on :
Now 193 to 133 per CNN (reflects Pennsylvania)
NBC has 203 to 133
[ November 02, 2004, 10:55 PM: Message edited by: Glaphyra the Righteous ]
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Yes, NPR just confirmed it too. 57-43 for Kerry with 63% reporting in.
Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
OH seems to be going more towards Bush. Looks like I'm going to have to eat my words.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
Ohio still too close, cause northern ohio was a friggin mess until an hour ago, so a LOT of those ballots haven't been counted. PA is Kerry, arizona for Bush... no surprises still.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Blacwolve, you should just listen to me.
Hobbes
[ November 02, 2004, 11:00 PM: Message edited by: Hobbes ]
Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
Heaven forbid! Posted by Glaphyra the Righteous (Member # 6995) on :
CNN has Ohio at 53 (R) to 47 (D) with 47% reporting.
But note Paul's comment above.
[ November 02, 2004, 11:01 PM: Message edited by: Glaphyra the Righteous ]
Posted by Glaphyra the Righteous (Member # 6995) on :
CNN: 197 to 188
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I made the call a page ago, and I stick by it.
Hobbes Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
CNN just annouced with much fanfare that Idaho went to Bush. You can tell they're running out of things to say.
Posted by Phanto (Member # 5897) on :
Hobbes -- you are too wise for us mortals.
Posted by Glaphyra the Righteous (Member # 6995) on :
(California weighed in with a mighty rumpish bang)
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Ooh, I thought CA would give Kerry the popular lead, at least temporarily.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Um... I know the polls just closed in Cali, but why did CNN just call California for Kerry with only, um, no precincts reporting in? Did I miss something?
Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
They're getting desperate for something to call.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Yah Phanto, but I try not to act like it.
Hobbes Posted by Ethics Gradient (Member # 878) on :
The New York Times is calling it more conservatively. 134 to Bush, 130 to Kerry.
Posted by King of Men (Member # 6684) on :
As far as I can tell, Florida will be decisive. If Kerry takes Florida but not Ohio, he wins by one vote; if he takes Ohio but not Florida, he loses. That's based on me calling the states CNN won't commit on yet, and ignoring Hawaii and Alaska, which don't matter for this calculation. Unfortunately, Florida looks bad. Very bad.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
I'm resummarizing CNN on this page, just for convenience. Note EG's reference to a more conservative call above.
J Kerry -- 188 total California 55 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 Dist of Col 3 Illinois 21 Maine [3?] Maryland 10 Massachusetts 12 New Jersey 15 New York 31 Pennsylvania 21 Rhode Island 4 Vermont 3
Who is left, how much do they have, and when do the polls close (or when can the tally be expected)?
7:30pm Eastern Time Ohio 20 *** swing state
8pm Eastern Time Florida 27 *** swing state New Hampshire 4 Pennsylvania 21 *** swing state
9pm Eastern Time Arizona 10 Colorado 9 Michigan 17 *** swing state Minnesota 10 New Mexico 5 Wisconsin 10 *** swing state
10pm Eastern Time Iowa 7 Montana 3 Nevada 5
11pm Eastern Time Hawaii 4 Oregon 7 Washington St 11
1am Eastern Time Alaska 3
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Florida is currently 52(R) to 47(D) with 94% reporting, per CNN.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Florida is currently 52(R) to 47(D) with 94% reporting, per CNN.
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Man, what twinky said about being glad it doesn't go by land area... looking at that map is scary. Of course, for people on the other side it probably sucks to see the teeny tiny areas in blue and know they are weighted so heavily.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Sara,
Kerry has 3 electoral votes for Maine, but the 4th electoral vote looks like it's going to go to Bush.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm holding with the Ohio, Florida for Bush, and I'm going to step out on a limb here and call Colorado for Bush as well.
Hobbes Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Fox just gave AZ to Bush.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Another resummarizing of CNN just for convenience.
J Kerry -- 188 total California 55 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 Dist of Col 3 Illinois 21 Maine [3?] Maryland 10 Massachusetts 12 New Jersey 15 New York 31 Pennsylvania 21 Rhode Island 4 Vermont 3
Who is left, how much do they have, and when do the polls close (or when can the tally be expected)?
7:30pm Eastern Time Ohio 20 *** swing state
8pm Eastern Time Florida 27 *** swing state New Hampshire 4 Pennsylvania 21 *** swing state
9pm Eastern Time Arizona 10 Colorado 9 Michigan 17 *** swing state Minnesota 10 New Mexico 5 Wisconsin 10 *** swing state
10pm Eastern Time Iowa 7 Montana 3 Nevada 5
11pm Eastern Time Hawaii 4 Oregon 7 Washington St 11
1am Eastern Time Alaska 3
[ November 03, 2004, 12:20 AM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I don't get how NM isn't a swing state.
Hobbes Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
It is
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Yah, but CNN seems to think it isn't.
Hobbes Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
It's white
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
NPR predicts "the Senate will remain in Republican hands."
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
White? CNN's map doesn't have any white...
Florida's at 97%, 52%, 47% for Bush and Kerry respct. It looks like that call's going on my prediction too.
Hobbes Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Defen, yah, it sure looks that way, there seems to be little change for anyone, a very good showing if your the incumbent. :-/
Hobbes Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
On tv CNN has white *shrugs*
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Ohh, well I don't have TV so I guess there's our problem . I was mostly going off of Sara's list, it highlights the swing states, and it doesn't highlight NM.
Hobbes Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Max Burns (R-Goergia) is the first Republican incumbent to lose in the House.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
The remaining precints in florida are all teh southern democratic strongholds.
Ohio, Columbus JUST finished voting, so we wont know anyting there for a few more hours.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
I thought white on CNN map was for states not yet called.
Sorry for the confusion, Hobbes.
[ November 02, 2004, 11:46 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
The remaining precincts in Fla are mostly Democratic, but the remaining votes to be counted aren't enough to close the gap even if they ALL went Kerry. Not counting absentee ballots.
Dagonee
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm calling the election for Bush, soory everyone (myself inlcuded ), but that's my call.
<--*Likes living on the edge*
Hobbes Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
CNN on swing states and likely votes, as per Oct 22 article .
quote:President Bush seems to have a lock on 176 electoral votes from twenty states: Alabama - 9, Alaska -3, Arizona -10, Georgia -15, Idaho -4, Indiana -10, Kansas -6, Kentucky -8, Louisiana -9, Mississippi -6, Montana -3, Nebraska -5, North Dakota -3, Oklahoma -7, South Carolina -3, Tennessee -11, Texas -34, Utah -5, Virginia -13 and Wyoming -3.
Senator Kerry seems to have a lock on 153 electoral votes in ten states and the District of Columbia: California -55, Connecticut -7, Delaware -3, Hawaii -4, Illinois -21, Maryland -10, Massachusetts -12, New York -31, RI-4, Vermont -3 and Washington, D.C. -3.
Six states with 51 electoral votes tilt toward Bush: Arizona -6, Colorado -9, Missouri -11, Nevada -5, North Carolina -15 and West Virginia -5.
But six states with 63 electoral votes lean toward Kerry: Maine -3 (note that Maine apportions its four electoral votes, and one vote still appears to be up for grabs), Michigan -17, Minnesota -10, New Jersey -15, Oregon -7 and Washington -11.
Suppose all the tilting states indeed go in the direction in which they are tilting. That gives Bush/Cheney 227 electoral votes, and Kerry/Edwards 216 votes.
There are still eight true swing states. In total, they have 95 electoral votes: Iowa -7, Florida -27, Maine -1, New Hampshire -4, New Mexico -5, Ohio -20, Pennsylvania -21 and Wisconsin -10.
It is in these states that election 2004 will ultimately be resolved -- either in the voting booths, or in the courts. And note that none of these states, alone -- even Florida, with its 27 votes -- will give either candidate a win.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
For updates on three southern counties in Florida (CNN figures)...
As of 11:50 p.m. (EST)
Miami-Dade county: 96% of precincts reporting Kerry: 369,929 (54%...no change from 10:20 p.m.) Bush: 311,546 (46%)
Broward county: 97% of precincts reporting Kerry: 437,741 (64%... down 1% from 10:20 p.m.) Bush: 234,359 (35%)
Palm Beach county: 93% of precincts reporting Kerry: 262,897 (61%) Bush: 168,905 (39%)
Posted by Elizabeth (Member # 5218) on :
Jon Stewart put all those states together on one map, as their own big state, and called them Ohiowa. (I think)(funny whatever it was)
Posted by Book (Member # 5500) on :
I assume those counties are heavily populated? Bigguns?
[ November 02, 2004, 11:58 PM: Message edited by: Book ]
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
So, if the non-dead-heat states go as expected, Bush/Cheney will have 227 electoral votes, and Kerry/Edwards 216.
Under those assumptions, Bush will need 43 more and Kerry will need 54.
The dead-heaters (coming in to the race): Iowa -7, Florida -27, (likely Bush?) Maine -1, (likely Bush?) New Hampshire -4, New Mexico -5, Ohio -20, Pennsylvania -21 (went to Kerry) Wisconsin -10.
[ November 02, 2004, 11:59 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Kerry's lead in New Hampshire has steadily increased from 6,000 to 8,000 over the past 2 hours. 3/4 of the votes are in.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Florida is a sure thing, my Ohio prediction is looking better now, a 4 percent spread with 70% reporting (still not anything like sure of course, but I'm keeping my prediction). Colorado is also going Bush it appears.
Hobbes Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire, look like they will go Kerry.
Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, look like they will go Bush
Posted by cochick (Member # 6167) on :
BBC is now projecting:
Bush 238 Kerry 188
with 38 of 51 states called
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Michigan is darn close, I almosst called it for Kerry but it's a 3% spread with 40% reporting.
Hobbes Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Urban areas with dense populations tend to both go Democratic and take the longest to count. That is one of the reasons that early results tend to look more Republican than later. (We are seeing the effect of this, e.g., in Milwaukee.)
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
msNBC is calling Wash state for Kerry, but that was not unexpected.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Kerry could gain another 100,000 votes in heavily democratic Cuyahoga county, Ohio. Still another 33% votes untallied.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
Michigan is close... but wayne county is going 3-1 for Kerry, and less then half done. Kerry will pick up another 100-150k votes on Bush just in that county.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Wash, really? I mean I think so too, but at 5% spread with only 12% reporting it seems a little early for MSNBC to call it.
Hobbes Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Heck, Fox's website called Washington State at 11:01 p.m. for Kerry. Yet strangely, they have yet to call Cali for him.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
Their models are also based on county. 5% spread, if its in counties that are more republican then other counties, means its locked up for kerry.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
CNN now has Ohio at 51 Bush and 49 Kerry at 74% reporting. The urban areas are coming in.
Columbus - Franklin Co (53 Kerry, 47 Bush, with 91% reported) Cincinnati - Hamilton Co (51 Kerry, 49 Bush, with 31% reported) Cleveland - Cuyahoga Co (63 Kerry, 37 Bush, with 67% reported) Toledo - Lucas Co (62 Kerry, 38 Bush, with 76% reported)
[ November 03, 2004, 12:16 AM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm giving all of Maine to Kerry.
Hobbes Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
OR goes under Kerry's position in my call.
Hobbes Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
CNN gave Florida to Bush. 234-188
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
I'm calling wisconsin and new hampshire for kerry.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
3% spread at Ohio, 76% reporting, I'm staying firm.
Hobbes Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
It looks like Colorado is becoming a sure thing, becoming, not is, but my call stays firm there too.
Hobbes Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
I'm calling New Hampshire for Kerry. The spread's increased to 8,838 votes.
I'll give Maine's final vote to Kerry, too.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
CNN: 234 to 188
msNBC: 207 to 206
Posted by Boris (Member # 6935) on :
Looks to me like Bush is pulling ahead in Ohio. 52-48.
Does anyone else find it funny that Nader is really crapping out in this?
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Lot of Bush precincts outstanding in Wisconsin. Maybe not enough to close the lead, but it's not safe Kerry yet.
Dagonee
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Yah, Ohio's moving out to 4% spread, still at 76% reporting.
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
CNN anchor is getting punchy...
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
Dagonee- It doesn't matter. Milwaukee still hasn't finished counting, nor has madison. Kerry's got it locked up, unless something WEIRD happens.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm giving MN to Kerry too.
Hobbes Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
Looks like Kerry needs 55.1% of the remaining vote in Ohio to carry it.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
quote:Looks to me like Bush is pulling ahead in Ohio. 52-48.
But see the post re: counties with large cities above. The county with Toledo has 3/4 in and the county with Cincinnati has only 1/3 in. Both are likely to continue to bring in votes for Kerry.
Same reason as for the Madison/Milwaukee influence noted by PG above.
Colorado's cities are also coming in late, but the probable call for it was Bush overall. Don't know how that will end up.
[ November 03, 2004, 12:25 AM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
That's more than doable.
Hobbes Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
That above post was towards Mike, Ohio's still at 4% spread, 77% reporting.
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Cincinatti is more Republican than Democrat.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
3% spread now, 79% reporting.
Hobbes Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
That's right, Dag. ALthough it's close so far in that county at 51 Bush and 49 Kerry.
Now Ohio overall at 51 Bush 48 Kerry with 79% reporting, per CNN.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
CNN's model just gave Colorado to Bush. 237-188
Fox's model just gave Oregon to Kerry. 210-151
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
(Thanks! I should have remembered Cincinnati's conservative side -- my aunt is an active Democrat there.)
Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
Kerry now needs in excess of 55.63% remaining votes in Ohio.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
I wish they'd put the major city names in with the county names on the breakdown screens.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
My call for Bush remains. [For the whole thing, not just Ohio]
Hobbes
[ November 03, 2004, 12:31 AM: Message edited by: Hobbes ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
The senate is now officialy R.
Hobbes Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
As a side now, the local state rep I was really pulling for (and voting for ) has won, this is purley an Indiana matter, but hey, I'm excited. (It's Joe Micon for those other Purdue people)
Hobbes Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
I've totally stopped watching CNN and am reading this thread instead.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
82% in, 51 to 49 at Ohio now.
Hobbes Posted by Sean (Member # 689) on :
Does anyone know how many absentee votes came in in Ohio and when they're counted?
Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
56.5%.
Yeah, if Ohio goes to Bush, there's no chance Kerry will win.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Iowa is far, far closer, 1% spread (Kerry leading 50-49), 76% reporting.
Hobbes Posted by kaioshin00 (Member # 3740) on :
Dan Rather cracked a funny;)
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Republicans just picked up a Senate seat in Louisiana, so they pretty much can't lose the Senate now.
Dagonee
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Another percent comes in for Ohio [82 reporting now] (same spread).
Hobbes
[ November 03, 2004, 12:41 AM: Message edited by: Hobbes ]
Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
Kerry needs 57.3% of the remaining Ohio vote. Not counting absentee ballots.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
The gap just widened in Ohio by about 10k (after narrowing by that much about 10 minutes ago).
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Bush 2,355,323 51% Kerry 2,218,407 48%
(In Ohio, 83% reporting)
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Fox just called Ohio for Bush.
I think they're jumping the gun a little, although I think Bush will win it.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
CNN overall has 246 Bush and 195 Kerry
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Fox News just called Ohio for Bush...has any other network done the same?
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Sara, I saw MSNBC call 207 for Bush, 199 for Kerry...and Fox has 266 for Bush and 211 for Kerry.
It's so confusing!!
Posted by kaioshin00 (Member # 3740) on :
dan rather says kerry's lead in iowa is 'as thin as turnip soup'
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
CNN Ohio at 52 to 48 with 83% reporting
[ November 03, 2004, 12:46 AM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
He's right about Iowa, about 20,000 vote difference right now.
Hobbes Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Actually, 15,000 is closer.
Hobbes Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
I know, Narnia. It's all so arbitrary in so many ways.
Thanks for the other updates.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
It's coming down to Ohio, and I am sticking with my page one prediction for Bush.
If Bush wins, that's it, if Kerry takes Ohio, then it'll be a real battle, we'll be up all night.
Hobbes Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Yeah, I think FOX is being premature also. I have a bad feeling that they're right, but I think it's too early to call it either way.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
The Fox Ohio call was based on an analysis of the outstanding precincts. No one else so far.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Bush has been declared winner in Ohio - unless there is the upset of the century in Alaska - he will be re-elected.
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
MSN:
Bush 246 Kerry 207
I won't believe anything until someone is sworn in in January. Posted by Alcon (Member # 6645) on :
Folks are you forgetting how absurdly biased for Bush Fox is? Don't listen to em, none of the others have called it.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
It's me they're trusting Alcon, everyone should've just gone home after I called the race a couple hours ago.
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
You know, you could at least dispute their reasoning.
They were right about Florida last time. Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Back to a 4% spread in Ohio, still 83% reporting.
Hobbes Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Um...did you listen to their reasoning for calling it? The margin is too high for Kerry to make up, the outstanding precincts are not in democratic areas.
New Mexico is looking good too. That would put it over 270.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Bush 2,364,527 52% Kerry 2,224,184 48%
83 % reporting in Ohio
Hobbes Posted by imogen (Member # 5485) on :
Remember, Fox were the ones who first called Bush last election.
Sure that was the *eventual* result - but many people think they called it way to early.
Posted by Synesthesia (Member # 4774) on :
*totally frustrated out of my brain*
Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
My Kerry-to-win-Ohio index sits at 58.0%. (Edit: the amount that he needs of the remaining, that is.)
[ November 03, 2004, 12:52 AM: Message edited by: Mike ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Back to 3 % spread.
Bush 2,372,359 51% Kerry 2,232,442 48%
84% reporting
Hobbes Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Cyahoga still only has 76% in, at 65% Kerry.
Franklin has 91% in, at 53% Kerry.
Hamilton has 44% in, at 52% Bush.
Lucas has 84% in, at 61% Kerry.
A lot of the smallest counties still not much in are Bush territory. It is quite close, IMHO.
(The 4 largest cities are at about [70-80]% in, all together. I don't see how that tips decisively to Bush--yet.)
[ November 03, 2004, 12:56 AM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
NPR: Bush 246, Kerry 216
Posted by imogen (Member # 5485) on :
Whoah this thread is moving fast.
The broadcast just got stopped here (on both channels it was showing on) in favour of daytime movies. *pbbbt*
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Iowa is more interesting, if less important.
Kerry 650,664 50% Bush 649,268 50%
82% reporting there.
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
quote:Remember, Fox were the ones who first called Bush last election.
Sure that was the *eventual* result - but many people think they called it way to early.
Of course, all the other channels called Florida for Gore far earlier in the evening, ignoring an entire section of the state.
Dagonee
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
The east coast news guys are starting to look really tired and really sick of all of this. Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Also of note - several pickups for the GOP in the Senate, including Louisiana, which has never before elected a Republican senator.
Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
Kerry needs 55.9% of remaining votes in Ohio.
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Wow. You're right Hobbes, Iowa is closer than I thought it would be.
yeah Belle, there are a lot of states that split the ticket this time around. Washington seems like it's electing a Republican for governor.
[ November 03, 2004, 12:55 AM: Message edited by: Narnia ]
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Cuyahoga now 90% in.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
Whats the absentee/provisionary ballot situation like in ohio?
Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
Now 56.6%.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Something like 200k provisional, I heard.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
10 day delay, lots of contraversy over how to count them.
Hobbes Posted by vwiggin (Member # 926) on :
James Carville just called the election for Bush on CNN. (His personal opinion, not CNN's official call)
[ November 03, 2004, 12:56 AM: Message edited by: vwiggin ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Check out Iowa, this is nuts!
Kerry 651,869 50% Bush 650,897 50%
83% reporting
Hobbes Posted by imogen (Member # 5485) on :
quote: Kerry 650,664 50% Bush 649,268 50%
That's not 50%!
Lazy non-decimal place two significant figure using election forecasters...
(It is Kerry 50.0537%, Bush 49.9463% )
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
87%, lead down to 102k in Ohio.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
CNN has Ohio at 51/49 with [87]% in.
[Changed fast!]
[ November 03, 2004, 12:59 AM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Bush 2,420,921 51% Kerry 2,319,462 49%
87 % reporting (Ohio again)
Hobbes Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
So it seems like most networks agree that Bush is ahead, but few are ready to call it yet. I don't blame them!
Posted by imogen (Member # 5485) on :
The difference between them is only about 100 000, so 200 000 absentee ballots could make a difference I guess.
Is there a trend in absentee ballots?
(Ours tend to be for the Liberal (conservative) government)
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
My most contraversial call yet, Iowa goes to Kerry.
Hobbes Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
imogen, it seems to depend on how many of them are military...but they count those in a different way than the rest of the absentees, don't they?
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Absentee generally reflects the popular vote of the state, with a slight trend Republican.
Provisionals will trend heavily Democratic, I'd think.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm putting Hawii in Kerry's column.
Hobbes Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm also making a slighty edgy call and pushing NM over to Bush.
Hobbes Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
I'll go with you on that one Hobbes...and maybe even your Iowa call too.
Posted by Anti-Chris (Member # 4452) on :
I'm giving Ohio to Nader.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
I'm going to veg off-site and follow the polls through my beloved's savvy eye. I'll be thinking about you all, though.
What a night.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Cuyahoga is 90% in, Hamilton (Cincinatti) is at 50%.
Posted by imogen (Member # 5485) on :
Ohio wiht 87%: Bush 2,452,234 51% Kerry 2,335,261 49%
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
(10 hours on a computer --> migraine aura. But I'll close my eyes and listen.)
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Bye Sara!! (I can't spell!)
[ November 03, 2004, 01:06 AM: Message edited by: Narnia ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Bush 2,459,650 51% Kerry 2,342,821 49%
88% reporting.
Hobbes Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
So they're saying that even if Kerry got a huge amount of the 250,000 provisional votes, it still wouldn't be enough to make up Ohio. What do you think?
Iowa continues to be a great show.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'd like to exhibit some pride here, so far I'm at 100% in calling the states, the tightest ones are still still open of course, but hey, I'm pretty psyched, which is nice since I don't want Kerry or Bush to win, and it's kind of hard to come away with a win in this situation.
Hobbes Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
John McCain.
Iowa is over for Bush right now, by just a few hundred, this is going to be a close call!
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
quote:So they're saying that even if Kerry got a huge amount of the 250,000 provisional votes, it still wouldn't be enough to make up Ohio. What do you think?
117k vote lead for Bush in Ohio.
Assume that holds, Kerry has to win 117k more votes than Bush out of 250k votes - so he needs 190k of them to go his way.
Dagonee
[ November 03, 2004, 01:13 AM: Message edited by: Dagonee ]
Posted by Anti-Chris (Member # 4452) on :
He voted for McCain! Posted by Destineer (Member # 821) on :
MSNBC has Bush with 269 now. It'll be enough.
I am burning up inside.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Ohio is going to Bush.
Iowa is my one chance for getting any state wrong. *Bites fingernails*
Hobbes Posted by kaioshin00 (Member # 3740) on :
CBS news hasn't decided if Ohio is decided Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Yah, but it's still going to Bush.
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
89% in Ohio, 2,496,440/2,371,383.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
(I can hardly see, but I can't stop watching)
Dag, on that read, Kerry would need 76% of remaining votes, and he's been breaking about 60/40 in the cities where he leads. I'm pretty sure it's a done deal, but I want to wait for the CNN call.
But CNN hadn't called yet for Florida, and that's way over.
Posted by Defenestraitor (Member # 6907) on :
Agh! This east coaster's going to sleep. Hopefully when I wake up Kerry will have 284 votes. G'night Hatrack! Thanks for the fun!
Posted by Sean (Member # 689) on :
CNN called Florida awhile ago...
Posted by Speed (Member # 5162) on :
Bush just passed Kerry in Iowa.
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Goodnight folks. Tomorrow is another day! (A day that I have to get up!)
It's been fun watching with you.
Posted by dread pirate romany (Member # 6869) on :
ABC News just called NH for Kerry.
Our (WA) gubernatorial race is still so close, I amstill holding out hope even though I'm not a huge fan of Gregiore. But I can't imagine a GOP governor.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I think I might lose my perfect call in Iowa. I shouldn't have made the call when there was less than 1,000 votes difference.
Hobbes Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
I know, I was shocked when I saw that WA might elect a Republican. talk about a split ticket!!
Ok. Now I'm going to bed.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
If CA keeps the same proportion, Kerry'll win by ~600k or so in that state - not enough to overcome the Bush popular vote lead. Still lots of other areas, but I gotta believe CA gives Kerry more raw vote differential than any remaining states.
Dagonee
Posted by Lupus (Member # 6516) on :
ya, it looks like a done deal. CNN is still holding out...but the guy talking on CSPAN seems to think Bush has got it...but they don't think Kerry will come down yet.
[ November 03, 2004, 01:22 AM: Message edited by: Lupus ]
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
I'm still saying IA is not only too close to call now, we're going to have to wait weeks to really find out.
<--*Has now lost interest in Ohio, it's over*
Hobbes
[ November 03, 2004, 01:23 AM: Message edited by: Hobbes ]
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Sean, I mean they didn't call it til way past it was over. They are likely to keep dragging their feet on Ohio, so this means a long night for me.
And I can't see out of one of my eyes -- I have to stop on the computer, even if I don't sleep.
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Have you guys heard any estimates on voter turnout yet? I haven't heard any...
Posted by Lucky4 (Member # 1420) on :
Whoa- how did Wisconsin suddenly get so close??
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
90%: 2,524,131/2,390,888
Posted by Speed (Member # 5162) on :
When are they going to call New Mexico?
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Not for a long, long time. There's too many absentee's. My call is official though.
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Within 5 minutes, I bet.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Ohh, news call ... right.
Hobbes Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
I think Hobbes is right for a Bush call. (Congrats to our Bush supporters. ) I'm curious as to what we'll see in absentee ballots, moreso for the popular vote --- eg 60,000 still uncounted from Miami-Dade Co.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Secretary of State of Ohio just said there's about 150k provisional ballots.
[ November 03, 2004, 01:29 AM: Message edited by: Dagonee ]
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Wow. Must have been a lot of challenges.
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Ok, so some people are saying 250K, some people are saying 150K....
And the Kerry campaign has officially disputed the Ohio call.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Cuyahoga 99% in, statewide 91% reporting 2,544,215/2,438,411.
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
I have GOT to go to bed!!
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
There were 100k provisional ballots in Ohio in 2000.
Most don't come from challenges, but from people showing up when there name isn't on the roll for that precinct.
Dagonee
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
I need to get to bed, too. Corporations is going to suck tomorrow.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
That's relieving. Thanks again, Dag.
I can't imagine not having verified your registration and polling site weeks ago if you are in a swing state, though. That is amazing.
(What were they thinking?)
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Yeah, my sister has to go to a sociology class at Portland Community College, where she is definitely a "stranger in a strange land." I think she was planning on skipping it.
Merry Elections to all and to all a GOODNIGHT!!
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
My MN call just got confirmed.
Hobbes Posted by Heffaji (Member # 3669) on :
I don't think I've ever hit the refresh button as much as I have tonight.
Posted by Boris (Member # 6935) on :
I'm still watching. Kerry needs 75% of the remaining Ohio votes to take it (Assuming the provisionals are split 50-50). He's pulled ahead by 4000 votes in Iowa, and he more or less has a lock on New Mexico.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
92% reporting, 2,577,304/2,477,475 - less than 100k lead for first time in a couple hours.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Bush now has more votes than he got in 2000, with 19% of the precincts nationally to be counted.
Posted by Synesthesia (Member # 4774) on :
*does not understand how that could possibly be*
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Higher number, not percentage, it's a big turnout.
Hobbes Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Well he's got a much higher percentage - he's over 50.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
93% reporting, 2,595,156/2,491,212.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Bush now has 51,078,930 votes, more than Gore received last year and more than any president since Reagan in '84 has received.
Dagonee
Posted by The Silverblue Sun (Member # 1630) on :
Bush wins.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
94% reporting, 2,639,180/2,532,530.
And now I'm off to bed.
Posted by Hobbes (Member # 433) on :
Yah, I should be off too, I doubt anything will be decided that isn't already in the next hour. At least anything that'll really matter...
Hobbes Posted by Heffaji (Member # 3669) on :
I haven't slept since Sunday night, so what's another few hours.
Posted by dread pirate romany (Member # 6869) on :
Now Gregiore (D) is taking the lead for WA governor.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
It might be 269-269, in which case Bush wins in the House of Representitves....
And gets nothing done for the next 4 years due to payback from the Dem's..
Then again, doing nothing is a huge improvement over his current track record...
Kwea
[ November 03, 2004, 02:17 AM: Message edited by: Kwea ]
Posted by beverly (Member # 6246) on :
Kwea, from your spelling I'd say you need to get some sleep.
Of course then you go and edit....
[ November 03, 2004, 02:18 AM: Message edited by: beverly ]
Posted by Vadon (Member # 4561) on :
Aw nuts... Ohio is too close to call...
Posted by CaySedai (Member # 6459) on :
one of our reporters said, "Iowa is going to be the Florida of the 2004 election."
Posted by dread pirate romany (Member # 6869) on :
Doesn't look good for Kerry -- looks like there aren't enough unreported precincts in pro-Kerry counties to make up the difference. But I guess there'll be the absentee votes yet...
Posted by newfoundlogic (Member # 3907) on :
I don't see anyway Kerry can make a comeback in Ohio. CBS, ABC, and CNN are just stubborn. It might not even matter. Bush is picking up New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa and if he were to make up the slim difference in Winsconsin he won't even need Ohio.
Posted by Boris (Member # 6935) on :
I'm going to fly to DC and bop Kerry on the head if he drags this out in Ohio. I mean, come on. How many people have been griping about Bush not getting the popular vote last election?
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
It's looking real, real good. For Republicans that is. Picked up seats in both House and Senate, the President is heading for re-election, and he will be the first man to get the majority of the national popular vote since his father. (Clinton never got over 50% of the popular vote, remember.)
I can't sleep, I'm too keyed up. Looks like there is a good chance Daschle will be out of a job, too.
Posted by Boris (Member # 6935) on :
Clinton definately got more than 50% when he ran against Dole. So not really the first president to do that since Bush, but hey.
Posted by Mr.Funny (Member # 4467) on :
Actually, according to this website, Clinton did not get the majority of the popular vote.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
[ November 03, 2004, 03:33 AM: Message edited by: rivka ]
Posted by prolixshore (Member # 4496) on :
Hooray for Republicans. Hooray for Bush and Cheney!
I am happy today. My faith in the American voting public is restored. Too bad my own state couldnt swing around to Bush, but you can't have it all I suppose.
--ApostleRadio
EDIT: Can anyone believe Thune beat Daschle? That's ridiculously stupid on the part of South Dakotans. Thune is never going to do as much for them as Daschle was able to. Oh well, there's no accounting for people.
[ November 03, 2004, 08:14 AM: Message edited by: prolixshore ]
Posted by Rakeesh (Member # 2001) on :
Yeah, Daschle's loss was a major setback for the Democrats, as well as being pretty surprising.
That particular Senate race is the most expensive in US history, as well as (I think) being the longest.
Posted by Farmgirl (Member # 5567) on :
I guess I was more aware, for the first time in my voting history, of the huge Rural/Urban split of this race. I have seen it before - but not as dramatically as now.
If you look at each state, and Bush/Kerry votes by county, overall (there are exceptions, of course) Bush won rural areas, and Kerry won major Metropolitan or heavily populated areas. And so, also, Kerry won the heavily populated California and West Coast, as well as the Beltway and New England states, where there is a great population of urban.
In states like Iowa, the most Kerry supporters were in the east-most populated counties along the river, and Des Moines (although he didn't pull a majority there). Same with Kansas -- the only really pro-Kerry showing was in the metropolitan KC area.
I can see that over time, as urban areas grow (which they are doing at a very rapid rate) and rural population declines, the shift of power could be major.
Farmgirl
Posted by katharina (Member # 827) on :
*wakes up, checks Hatrack first thing to see if there is a result*
*sighs*
Yay. Democrasy works. *waves a tiny little flag sadly*
![[Confused]](confused.gif)
I'm assuming nothing unexpected has happened yet? Were those states all predicted to go that way?
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
![[Grumble]](graemlins/grumble.gif)
![[Dont Know]](graemlins/dontknow.gif)
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
![[Mad]](mad.gif)
![[Frown]](frown.gif)
![[ROFL]](graemlins/rofl.gif)
Kwea....