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I just wanted to really know what people thought about the global events and whether any of it could ever actually occur, with or without the battleschool kids.

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I think it's unlikely, precisely because one precondition of a peaceful FPE would be the creation of smaller ethnic enclaves -- and, unfortunately, there would be vanishingly few countries willing to permit the creation of such independent states within their own borders. It's probably the least realistic element of the book.
 

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Posted by Mr.Happenstance (Member # 7635) on :
 
Hrm not sure how to do the quote: thing with the line so I wont chance it. I agree that the creation of the FPE was one of the most unrealistic piece of the book, mainly because the events leading to its possibility, i.e the bugger attacks, never actually happened. What I was far more intrigued about was the actions the south-asian nations took towards each other, most of which I found to be very possible.

[ March 24, 2005, 02:26 AM: Message edited by: Mr.Happenstance ]
 

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Posted by Mr.Happenstance (Member # 7635) on :
 
And the thing about the smaller ethnic enclaves is that the nations that joined at first weren't facing any immediate danger of being split into smaller parts, and the nations that Peter created as part of his announcement were created from countries that really didn't have a choice in the matter considering Beans exceptional military actions.
Its just like Maryland, and hmm one other country I can't remember...Missouri?, joining the north during the civil war. When the war began it was to unite the states again and that seemed like the most profitable course. Its really not THAT unlikely that small countries, with really nothing to lose and much to gain, could do the same thing.
 

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Posted by Sid Meier (Member # 6965) on :
 
Ya, I loved the political stuff and remember the battle school kids were needed for all of that to happen becuase in these days with our huge beaurocracies, international economy, globalism, etc. Most governments don't have the boldness to to "go on their destined course" etc. Most governments are either too conservative and too willing to cling to the status quo or to liberal and willing to preserve the integrety of local nations. Nations with a high enough level of belligerance are becomming increasingly rare as it becomes harder to make war on other nations for economic and diplomatic reaons. The Battle School "brats" are needed because as Graff said they were so competitive for mastery that they kept fighting each other, wasting the worlds reaosurces in wars that were so impossible to win because they were so evenly matched! Eventually these wars would spread to other countries where governments fearing defeat and humiliation will immediatly do as the french did and put the reigns of power in the hands of their own countries' particular genious(es) Imagine what would've happened had Peter not have been in the equation and the IF willing to let things slide (hell if Ender returned home) South america would've devolved to chaos as Dumper tried to create a nation for his people in the Andes, Hot Soup in China reclaiming Han China, Russia cowing their Warsaw Pact nations once and for all under Vlad, Ducheval in France, Carn Carby in Austrailia, Fly in Philopeans hoping to take Taiwan etc etc, these wars under the direction (direct or indirect?) of the BS kids or going into their hands as the wars turn against their own nation would last decades as these wars reach militarily or diplomatic stalemates or just simply go back and forth over hundreds of miles of borders and frontiers and then becuase they would marry equally smart people and have children as smart or smarter who would inherit the responsilbility of the war as early as 15, a whole new social class could easily form as the numbers of genious kids increase over time, wars would continue increasing and the wars last longer. And none would ever become victorious because they are all evenly matched.
 

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Posted by Smasher (Member # 7640) on :
 
Myself, I have not yet finished 'Shadow of the Giant', but I bought it last night.

I love reading how political issues unwind in "Orson's" books. I think that in the Bean saga, the political-ness,*lack of a better word*, is what is the most intriguing story is.

Political random-ness,*again, lack of a better word*, in books like "The Wheel of Time" can be boring. Don't get me wrong, I love that series, but I still treasure the sagas of Ender and Bean for many reason. The political story is a main reason.
 

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Posted by Mr.Happenstance (Member # 7635) on :
 
The way I see it is there are really only a few ways to portray political dealings in a ficton book. Most of them, like in many of the Anne Mccaffery(sp?) books, may be slightly more like how things progress today but are so boring I almost find the books unreadable. What I mean by that is the fact that most of those books have a bunch of guys sitting aroud talking about what they SHOULD do for 8 chapters without ever actually doing any of it.
The shadow books, in my opinion, manage to portray these events in a clear flowing manner that really moves along much faster than it could.

These guys are here for absolutly no reason, but they're so fancy!
 

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Posted by 0range7Penguin (Member # 7337) on :
 
My thought is that those things could only happen if their was an antagonist. In SoTG it was not so unreasonable becuase the whole world would have seemed at war and they were just trying to jump into whatever ship didn't look like it was either sinking or killing its own crew. I believe we could atleast see a United States of Europe in the next fifty years, especially if they had an antagonist. Think of how many times enemies will unite to fight a common enemy. In world war II the USSR and the USA actually fought on the same side against the Nazis. The perfect example is the cold war were most of the smaller nations either got on the USA team or the Russian team.
If China or someone else ever started attacking their neighbors everyone else would start joining up.
 

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Posted by Mr.Happenstance (Member # 7635) on :
 
Well See, the thing is, they ARE going to start attacking their neighbors. The chinese government has recently made a law that basically obligates them to go to war with taiwan if taiwan doesn't give up their independance on their own. Now normally of course it would be insano crazy for taiwan to try and stand up to china, but of course guess who's backing them on this issue....yeah...That would be the United States and Japan.
 

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Posted by Sid Meier (Member # 6965) on :
 
I really don't think Japan is willing to lose billions of dollars over an island, which last time I checked was one of their buisness rivals...
 

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Posted by Sid Meier (Member # 6965) on :
 
Remember europe didn't go to war over the sudutenland.
 

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Posted by urbanX (Member # 1450) on :
 
Really? I just read that Japan might not directly get involved in a China/Taiwan dispute, it will provide support to American troops.

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Last month, Japan deliberately made its position on Taiwan less ambiguous by declaring, in a joint statement with its American ally, that Taiwan is a mutual security concern. This not only meddled in China's internal affairs, in China's view, but also took Japan a symbolic step further past its constitutional restrictions on military action. In December, Japan's National Defence Programme Outline had described China itself as a source of “concern” for Japan. That concern was reinforced in early March by China's own announcement of a 12.6% rise in official defence spending to almost 250 billion yuan ($30 billion), a figure believed in Japan to understate true spending by 30-50%.

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The sea-bed off Asia is home to numerous disputes over the ownership of various rocks and islets, all made potent by the prospect of oil and gas being found beneath the ocean. Japan has a dispute with South Korea over an island that Japan calls Takeshima (see article) and China is mixed up in quarrels with several South-East Asian countries over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. All are potentially serious. But the ones between Japan and China risk becoming especially fractious, for they mix greed with fear, or at least national pride: a feeling, widely held on both sides, that what is at issue may be not just a few barrels of oil, but the whole future power balance in Asia.

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I think it's unlikely, precisely because one precondition of a peaceful FPE would be the creation of smaller ethnic enclaves -- and, unfortunately, there would be vanishingly few countries willing to permit the creation of such independent states within their own borders.

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