Ivan appears to be veering North, North-East. It will likely spare New Orleans for the most part, as the waves there are not expected to get more than 12' above normal. If the levee holds, the city will once again be spared.
However, places in the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi are in danger of much greater storm surge. One of the gulf islands has experienced waves up to 75' high!!!
Coastal waves are expected to be as much as 40' high.
Power outages may affect places as far inland as Atlanta and points North.
This is a major storm. It should die down pretty quicly once it hits land, but all those coastal areas are in for a terrible time between now and this time tomorrow.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
I've been brooding on this all day, Bob. Kinda makes the small spats of life look, well, small. Posted by Bob_Scopatz (Member # 1227) on :
Yes, it has to be pretty hard to rapidly sort through a life's possessions taking only what you must save, and leaving your home with the thought that it probably will not be there when you return.
I must say I'm glad about New Orleans (although the outcome there is by no means certain), but the Gulf Coast has many other fine places that could really be hit hard. Mobile, Alabama is a fairly large metropolis, for example. And an important shipping area for the nation.
There have already been 2 deaths from tornadoes spawned by this storm, and it hasn't even made landfall yet. The winds are at tropical storm strength on land at this point (up to 50 mph in gusts). But those tornadoes are killers too.
I visted South Florida after the storm there destroyed parts of Miami and it was truly terrible to see. Things just looked scraped bare. And there were large piles of rubble burning all over the place -- it was the only reasonable way to reduce the size of the heaps.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
New Orleans is a special case, though. The Red Cross won't put up emergency shelters there because of the danger. The city is below sea level - if the ocean level breaches the levees, the city will be under water for months. The pumps can clear one inch a day. The flood control is rated for a category 3 at most.
New Orleans in a hurrican is considered the worst potential natural disaster in the U.S. according to an one of the disaster agencies. It could be as bad as the Bangledesh storm was.
Scary, scary, scary stuff.
Dagonee
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Well, we're all holed up with puzzles, games, and lots of food. They are expecting widespread power outages here in Birmingham tomorrow, and possible tornadoes and high winds. Forecasting tropical storm force winds here, which is a bad deal, our trees and power lines are exactly built to withstand tropical forces, ya know.
School is cancelled for tomorrow and Friday, and my husband has been called up on emergency alert status and probably won't come home until Saturday.
So it's just me, Mom, and the kids. And the Lord of the Rings version of Risk. Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
Be safe.
Posted by Synesthesia (Member # 4774) on :
I hope my friend there will be ok Posted by unicornwhisperer (Member # 294) on :
I have a brother over in Alabama, How bad is it expected to get??... he will be home in November, but oh gosh... I think he's in Athens Alabama now..?
[ September 15, 2004, 11:29 PM: Message edited by: unicornwhisperer ]
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
unicornwhisperer, I don't think there will be anything deadly.
Our news weatherman just said that our worst-case scenario is about 75 mph winds in the birmingham area. Athens, I believe, is north of here.
Now, certainly that's not a good thing - but it's a far cry from the 135 mph winds the coast is facing.
Our main concern is power outages. The trees in Northern AL just aren't used to those force winds, there will be a lot of trees and limbs down which will take down power lines.
I think our biggest problem will be inconvenience, not threat to life and limb.
On a somber note, I heard that a tornado in the panhandle has already claimed two lives. Posted by PSI Teleport (Member # 5545) on :
My Dad flew out of Mobile last night, and is now safely in Peru again.
Two hurricanes targeting my parents. What's up with that?
Posted by Shan (Member # 4550) on :
[ September 16, 2004, 12:11 AM: Message edited by: Shan ]
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Belle, I have that version...but my wife won't play it with me.
She says she doesn't like it, it is too combarive for her.
Duh!
It's Risk!
Kwea
Posted by BannaOj (Member # 3206) on :
Apparently New Orelans has just had some new screw pumps installed fairly recently, the largest in the world. It's actually going to be an interesting test to see how they handle the storm surge.
To ease your mind about New Orleans:
quote:The system's pumping capacity is over 29 billion gallons a day, enough to empty a lake 10 square miles by 13.5 feet deep every 24 hours. That flow rate (over 45,000 cubic feet per second) is more than the flow rate of the Ohio River, the nation's fifth largest river.
(not that it helps everywhere else,New Oreleans might actually be more prepared than its surrounding neighbors.
[ September 16, 2004, 01:15 AM: Message edited by: BannaOj ]
Posted by ak (Member # 90) on :
Ooooooh, I'm glad to hear that about New Orleans! I've been worried about them ever since I saw that article in Sciam explaining how it's a disaster waiting to happen. It's raining here now with some gusty wind but nothing scary at all. The latest forcast track shows it still aimed straight to us, with tropical storm force winds when it arrives. I do think I should board up my big windows, and I'm going to do that now before I go to sleep.
Probably our power will go off, but I'll post again as soon as it's back on. I'm sure we'll be just fine. I'm nestled in the crook of a hill and am well protected. The cats and I will go downstairs in the hall with the doors closed when the winds get high, and we'll sleep on the cots. I've got candles and a lighter all ready, and plenty of nonperishable food on hand, as well as stored water and so on (thanks to the wisdom of the LDS church teachings).
I hope the people in Mobile are okay. It seems to have come ashore early this morning. I've not heard any news yet. Maybe I'll go check it before I sleep as well.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
What's scary is that the pumps are draining about 350 square miles. Even with the new pumps, that's less than 6 inches a day it can pull out of the city if the whole thing is flooded.
Dagonee
Posted by Zevlag (Member # 1405) on :
I am praying far all of you, and your family, and your homes. May God and your wisdom bring safety unto you.
Posted by ak (Member # 90) on :
Oh, okay, thanks, Joshy! I KNOW that we'll be fine now! It's starting to gust up to fairly high wind velocity. I'm moving out of the room with the big windows now. Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Stay safe, Anne Kate, be smart. Posted by ak (Member # 90) on :
Woooo! We're getting occasional gusts strong enough to be exciting already at 10 AM and the storm isn't supposed to peak in intensity until around 10PM tonight! Should be rather fun.
Thanks, Sara! I'm not one of these who is out dancing around in it. (Gives Anna a look.) But it's very awesome when I peek out. This is a big storm! Wind patterns are crazy! The clouds are zooming rapidly across the sky from east to west now.
Posted by Eduardo_Sauron (Member # 5827) on :
Hey, people...I hope you're all safe out there!
(((( everyone ))))
*is glad Brazil doesn't have tornadoes
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Well, I just got back inside. I went outside to bring our garbage can inside, so it doesn't get blown around.
that was fun.
My husband called to say not to expect to talk to him again until tomorrow. I might see him on Saturday. but, that's the price we pay for him being in the rescue/service industry.
We have power (obviously, the computer and DSL are working!) but we lost it for a while this morning. Praise God we have underground utilities and we are on the same trunk or whatever that feeds the prison about ten miles away, so we get power back very quickly when we lose it. One Alabama power guy said we are second only to the hospital in the county for priority.
The trees are bent over, and rain is lashing the windows. And the worst of it hasn't hit us yet. It will be very interesting.
I heard from my mother in law on the coast - she has some roof damage and lost a storage building in the backyard but that's it. She has power.
Like an idiot, and against my advice, my mother went to work this morning. Seh is now on the way home, and I'm praying she makes it safely.
Wes told me if the wind gets up to 45 mph they will suspend rescue response, for the safety of the fire fighters. (those top heavy rescue units aren't what you want to be in when the wind is gusting that high) That's reassuring for me, as the wife of one of those rescuers, but scary for the people that may need them in the interim.
My kids and I all joined hands and prayed, and will continue to do so at regular intervals. Any prayers from you guys are appreciated too.
God bless.
Posted by Farmgirl (Member # 5567) on :
You have my prayers, Belle.
You're a real trooper for how well you are taking this, how organized you are, and how calm you are staying. I'm glad you're farther inland than some.....
Farmgirl
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Belle, I have all my good thoughts and fervent wishes directed out your way. Check in when you can!
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Everyone be careful and don't underestimate the storm.
Dagonee
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
Yeah, I was going to say something about winds being 'only' of tropical storm strength. With gusts, that's plenty powerful to knock down trees and, what's worse, pick up anything loose and send it hurtling towards things at a high velocity. I'm hoping everyone is boarded up just to be on the safe side with plenty of water set aside in the event water goes down.
Posted by ak (Member # 90) on :
<laughs with glee>
Power is blinking already here. Just went outside to grab more Diet Coke out of the car and the street, driveway, ground, everything are solid green, covered in leaves blown down from the trees. It's only noon! It's not supposed to peak until late tonight!
Wheeeee, this is fun!
Posted by plaid (Member # 2393) on :
*curious* So, has Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell or anyone similar been on TV to figure out who to blame for all the hurricanes?
Posted by Telperion the Silver (Member # 6074) on :
wow!
Posted by Olivetta (Member # 6456) on :
School has been let out up here. Have been standing in the garage waiting for the bus to drop off Robert (He had already been put on the bus by the time we got back from picking up Liam.
They put both loads on the buss at once, so there is no telling when it will come. Must go back out and wait with umbrella.
Posted by MaydayDesiax (Member # 5012) on :
Well, I know Toretha is depressed about not getting to run out in the storm, but I'm rather glad it missed New Orleans. The elderly and those who couldn't evacuate in time were holed up in the Superdome overnight.
Everyone else, stay safe.
::prays for you... yes, you!::
Posted by pooka (Member # 5003) on :
quote: *curious* So, has Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell or anyone similar been on TV to figure out who to blame for all the hurricanes?
My take on this is that it is surprising this sort of thing doesn't happen a lot more often. I thought this first about 8 years ago when I was driving home in a stiff wind and considered that it wouldn't even take an order of magnitude shift in wind speed for life on earth to be pretty much impossible. That said, I blame Oral Roberts.
P.S. My sister lives in Gainesville, FL. I've been quite concerned about her for a while. As far as I know, they have just been getting a lot of rain.
[ September 16, 2004, 02:19 PM: Message edited by: pooka ]
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Be careful, Olivia. Posted by TMedina (Member # 6649) on :
Olivia lives north of Atlanta, so she should be fine.
I'm in Dunwoody and we're just getting thunderstorms rolling through.
Tonight and tomorrow, however, may be an entirely different kettle of fish.
-Trevor
Posted by Insanity Plea (Member # 2053) on :
Anne Kate called me about....three hours ago, seemingly the worst of it has passed her, and she's doing good, power is still out though. Satyagraha
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
(((Ivan victims)))
Posted by TMedina (Member # 6649) on :
No flooding in the apartment complex, but we did lose power for only four hours total.
It was raining so hard, the flood of water came up to my knees when I hopped out of the car to throw away some toxic sludge that began life as something green and leafy.
-Trevor
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
I read that there is a 20 year trend that repeats for Hurricanes, and that we are entering the beginnig of a "severe" weather pattern now...so for the next 20 yers 9plus) we will have more class 4 and 5 Hurricanes than we have been seeing for the past 20 years.
Kwea
Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :
One of the networks did a thing last night and said that there had been an abnormally large high sitting off of the east coast of Florida which pushed the hurricanes this season into the more destructive paths that we've seen.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Hey guys! We weathered the storm in embarrassing comfort.
We lost power for about two hours. Then it came back on and never blinked again. We didn't lose our satellite feed, so could watch TV.
Our biggest problem was keeping a drain on our driveway clear, so no water backed up into our garage. It meant bundling up several times and going out in the rain to clear the drain of all the leaves and debris blown down by the wind.
Some neighbors of ours lost trees, but we had no damage, no water in the house, no trees blown down. It's as if angels put a protective canopy over our home.
Others in our family didn't fare as well. My mom's house, (she lives with us now, but her divorce from my stepdad isn't final and he still lives in the house) had a tree down that took out two bedrooms and the back porch. My brother and sister-in-law live in Pelham (not all that far from AKA) and they are still without power today.
My aunt in Florida had a lot of trees down on her property but her house was spared.
Wes got home last night about 2 AM, scared me to death, because he called before he came in. ONe doesn't expect good news at 2AM, I had a fleeting thought that when I answered the phone it would be some official telling me he had been hit by a tree or something awful. Thankfully, it was him telling me he was about to come inside and "didn't want to scare me" so he called first. Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Power still off here but I'm posting from my niece's house. Their's is on again already. Everything's fine with us. It's fun not having power. I actually like slept... at night... when it was dark and stuff. Was cool! <laughs>
Hope everyone else is fine too! I heard 21 people in the U.S. died. Vanya wasn't so sweet after all.
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