Hatrack River Forum: Is it the End of Days?

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Posted by Chris Bridges (Member # 1138) on :

We post polls on our front page, some silly, some serious, most having to do with current events.

The one from Monday read like this:

Tsunamis, hurricanes, fires and earthquakes have struck one after another this year. What's going on?

It's just a coincidence
It's global warming
It's all Bush's fault
It's the End of Days
Heck if I know

Currently the results (in an admittedly very unscientific poll) are looking like this:

It's just a coincidence 365 (29.41%)
It's global warming 230 (18.53%)
It's all Bush's fault 225 (18.13%)
It's the End of Days 254 (20.47%)
Heck if I know 167 (13.46%)

I gotta wonder... how many people believe we're in the End Times? What about you folks?

Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :

Put me down for "It's just a coincidence."

Posted by Beren One Hand (Member # 3403) on :

quote:
It's all Bush's fault 225 (18.13%)

Huh? Are these people insane?

I vote for coincidence.

I do have one question. Are we experiencing an unusual increase in tectonic plate shifts in the recent years? Or am I just paranoid because I live in California?

Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :

I'm sure a lot of the people are responding in jest. The poll choices are pretty amusing... I mean, "It's all Bush's fault!" *laugh*

Posted by Chris Bridges (Member # 1138) on :

Don't laugh. It was added in jest, but we've received complaints about the poll's "Bush-bashing."

Posted by Teshi (Member # 5024) on :

I certainly think there's a irrational desire to believe that the recent rash of disasters, the war, the weather etc., mark a kind of beginning of the end. I mean I've certainly stepped out of my front door into pinky-grey cloud cover and muffled sounds and thought "well, this would be a good day for the world to end."

I think this poll is totally unindicative rationally, but does reflect a kind of worry among the general populace that things aren't going in the right direction. The reasons for this are varied but I think the feeling, although people recognise it as irrational is definately there.

Posted by DarkKnight (Member # 7536) on :

I'm sure they are some people responding to the poll who truly believe it is Bush's fault

Posted by starLisa (Member # 8384) on :

I checked my calendar, and I'm pretty sure we have days going at least until the end of the year.

Posted by Crotalus (Member # 7339) on :

It's the end of the world as we know it.

And I feel fiiinne.

Posted by ifmyheartcouldbeat (Member # 8692) on :

Its the apocolypse people. Clearly. ;-)

Posted by KPhysicsGeek (Member # 8655) on :

It's the End of Days!!! [Cry]

but that is still Bush's fault [Wink]

Posted by littlemissattitude (Member # 4514) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Chris Bridges:
Tsunamis, hurricanes, fires and earthquakes have struck one after another this year. What's going on?

It's just a coincidence
It's global warming
It's all Bush's fault
It's the End of Days
Heck if I know

Okay, let's look at the alternatives.

It's all Bush's fault - Look, I don't like Bush much, but I just can't figure out how Bush could make a hurricane or an earthquake.

It's the End of Days - I don't believe in an "End of Days", so I wouldn't choose this alternative.

It's global warming - Okay, I can see how this could influence hurricane formation. But earthquakes? Can't see that at all.

It's just a coincidence - I'd be more apt to choose this alternative. Except that I'm not all that sure I believe in coincidence.

So, I think I'm stuck with Heck if I know. Although I think I might add another alternative, sort of between the "coincidence" alternative and this one. I'd call that alternative Crap happens.

Posted by JannieJ (Member # 8683) on :

End of Days was an awful movie.

Posted by El JT de Spang (Member # 7742) on :

For those that don't believe in the End Of Days, consider this: Rick Moranis just released a country music CD.

Yes, you heard right. The guy from Honey, I Shrunk the Kids, My Blue Heaven, and Ghostbusters just came out with a record.

Posted by KPhysicsGeek (Member # 8655) on :

quote:
Originally posted by El JT de Spang:
For those that don't believe in the End Of Days, consider this: Rick Moranis just released a country music CD.

Yes, you heard right. The guy from Honey, I Shrunk the Kids, My Blue Heaven, and Ghostbusters just came out with a record.

I thought for sure it was the End of Days when the Red Sox won the series last year. After that, nothing is really a shock.

Posted by Askew (Member # 8438) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Adam613:

I don't think it's the end of days, but I do think we're entering a modern Dark Ages.

I agree with Adam. Human history is full of examples of civilizations being cyclic. Rome in recent history. The legends of Atlantis, Babylon etc. The archeological ruins of civilizations that have passed through the cycle.
Many of the older eastern religions have cycles in them where things come crashing down and begin again.
Most things grow old and pass on into history. If you think of our society as an organism, we advance as long as more effort is put into advancing the whole, than for individual satisfaction. If all the cells in your body wanted more, what would happen? I’m not going to carry this oxygen to the liver. It would break down and fall apart. We are reaching that point. It’s very similar to what John Forbes Nash Jr. came up with (the guy in ‘A beautiful mind’). We work together till it is no longer in our perceived self-interest.

As for a reason for the weather, there are shifts. Was the last ice age the “end of the world”? I wouldn’t say so.

Did you ever hear "old yellow eyes" by Data from Star Trek?

Posted by Enigmatic (Member # 7785) on :

quote:
Originally posted by JannieJ:
End of Days was an awful movie.

But Strange Days was pretty good.

Posted by ricree101 (Member # 7749) on :

Sorry Chris, but your poll is fundementally flawed. It is common knowledge that the Yakuza are to blame. And the Russians. Always the Russians.

Posted by KarlEd (Member # 571) on :

I thought we were supposed to . . .

Blame Canada!

Posted by ketchupqueen (Member # 6877) on :

I don't know.

But I'm still trying to work a little harder on the things I know I haven't got right yet.

It's kinda scary.

Posted by Father Time (Member # 7985) on :

The increase in catastrophic disasters is real. It is documented and analyzed. The data supporting a trend towards super disasters has been available for over a decade.

Here are a few statistics:

-The number of natural disasters has more than tripled since those experienced in the 1970’s.

-More than 3 3/4 million people were killed by all disasters in past 25 years.

-Since the 1950’s, costs associated with natural disasters have rocketed 14-fold. The year 2004 is the most catastrophic year in insurance history. The total world losses (insured and uninsured) rose to an unprecedented total of more than U.S. $150 billion.

-Toward the end of the 1990’s, the world counted some 25,000,000 “environmental refugees.” For the first time in recorded history, more people had fled natural hazards than conflict.

-Another humanitarian disaster could be found in sub-Saharan Africa last year, where 2.2 million people died from the HIV/AIDS epidemic, while 24 million currently live with the infection.

-In 2004, Florida was hit by four hurricanes in the space of only a few weeks, making it one of the most costly hurricane seasons ever for insurers. At the same time, Japan was hit by a record number of ten tropical cyclones.

-“Killer earthquakes” (with scale ratings of 6.0 or above) have jumped from a cumulative total of 9 in the 1950’s, to 51 in the 1970's, to 285 in the 1990's, and already 190+ in the 2000’s.

-The 1980's and 1990's were the most violent years on record for the actual number of and resulting damage from armed conflicts (including acts of terrorism, insurrection, and war).

Part of the increase can be traced to the improvements in technology and our ability to "see" disasters in remote areas of the world.

Is it the end of days? I don't think so, but we do need to be aware of these trends and the need for coordinated information to help people world wide.

Posted by Ophelia (Member # 653) on :

quote:
For those that don't believe in the End Of Days, consider this: Rick Moranis just released a country music CD.

Yes, you heard right. The guy from Honey, I Shrunk the Kids, My Blue Heaven, and Ghostbusters just came out with a record.

Well, it's not like he's never sung before. Little Shop of Horrors has a great soundtrack. Not that I'd call his singing wonderful, but certainly not too bad for a country album.

But then again, I guess these days singing ability has absolutely nothing to do with someone's music career.

Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :

quote:
Originally posted by starLisa:
I checked my calendar, and I'm pretty sure we have days going at least until the end of the year.

And I still have checks in my checkbook. So?

As far as the original question, I don't know. I hope it is (keeping in mind that what that means to me is somewhat different than the Christian notion), but I know that I'm not ready yet. So I also hope it isn't.

Posted by Brinestone (Member # 5755) on :

What does it mean to you, rivka? Now you've made me curious. [Smile]

Posted by Chris Bridges (Member # 1138) on :

Not sure the numbers on the disaster trends is entirely relevant. For one thing Florida had such horrendous hurricane periods before, apparently on a roughly 25-year cycle. And we have far more people living in the state than we did then, meaning repair costs and evacuation numbers would be correspondingly higher. If 30 people lived in an area that was evacuated in 1965 and 3,000 people live in the same area now, the disaster has not gotten worse.

Adjust the numbers for population growth and building development and let's see if it's an increase or not.

Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :

When Jewish sources refer to Achris haYamim, the End of Days, it means the time period directly leading up to the time of Moshiach.

Posted by Brinestone (Member # 5755) on :

I knew that the coming of the Moshiach was anticipated at the end of days, but I would like to know why you don't feel ready and what you expect to lead up to that time.

Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :

Because in a way similar to death bringing me to a better world, but one where I no longer have the opportunity to DO anything (including become a better person), Moshiach will bring us to a better world, but one where many of the challenges are removed.

Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :

As I can't think of any major religion who believes that the unbelievers will get the best end of the apocalypse, I'd like to throw my vote in for "not ready yet," too. [Smile]

Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :

Why the economic damage in Florida has gotten worse

Posted by littlemissattitude (Member # 4514) on :

quote:
Originally posted by El JT de Spang:
For those that don't believe in the End Of Days, consider this: Rick Moranis just released a country music CD.

Well, while it is true that I don't believe in the End of Days, I actually considered that it might be true a few weeks ago when William Shatner won an Emmy for his acting. [Eek!]

Posted by Parsimony (Member # 8140) on :

Hey come on now. No Rick Moranis bashing! Didn't you see him in "Little Shop of Horrors"? He is actually a fine singer. I don't know how well his voice translates to country style, since I haven't heard the cd. But let's give the poor guy a little credit.

We have to stick up for the dorky looking guys who manage to make it in this shallow world!

--ApostleRadio

Posted by imogen (Member # 5485) on :

quote:
Originally posted by TomDavidson:
As I can't think of any major religion who believes that the unbelievers will get the best end of the apocalypse, I'd like to throw my vote in for "not ready yet," too.

I'm with Tom.

Posted by Joldo (Member # 6991) on :

Well, according to Fred Phelps, the fault belongs to the perverts out there. And yes, it is the end of days.

Posted by Cactus Jack (Member # 2671) on :

Actually, Mormon leaders have said that "millions" of good people of all creeds (including athiests) will survive the apocalypse and live during the millenium. Granted, that's in a world of billions, but at least it gives it odds, right?

Posted by mr_porteiro_head (Member # 4644) on :

I do believe that it is the End of Days.

How close we are to the end of the End of Days, I don't know.

I do not think that only believers will survive the end (or the beginning) of the apocalypse.

Posted by beverly (Member # 6246) on :

quote:

We have to stick up for the dorky looking guys who manage to make it in this shallow world!

It's all good and fine to stand up for the dorky guys, but what about the dorky girls who make it in this shallow world?

Oh, wait. There aren't any. [Razz]

Posted by ssywak (Member # 807) on :

My son and I were watching that pseudo-news anchor on the local TPN station, who was proudly proclaiming, "See! I was right! It is the End Of Days!"

I told my son, "If Jesus doesn't come by June, 2006, we're going to find this guy, hold him down, and just slap him silly."

Seems like a fair deal.

Posted by Altáriël of Dorthonion (Member # 6473) on :

For me its a toss between the end of days and the coincedence thing. I probably would've voted that its all Bush's fault just for the heck of it. You guys know I cannot stand Republican viewpoints or polititians.

Posted by 0range7Penguin (Member # 7337) on :

Not to worry anyone but the Mayan Calender predicted the end of the world to be the year 2020. The Mayan's had VERY accurate calenders...

Posted by Enigmatic (Member # 7785) on :

Actually, it's 2012. December 21, iirc.
Also, it's arguable that the Mayan "end of the world" is more like the end of one age and the beginning of another.

Of course, as one of my secular humanist friends likes to say "I can't wait until 2012, just so everybody has to find a new magic date after nothing happens."

--Enigmatic

Posted by Elizabeth (Member # 5218) on :

My husband pointed out to my son that if the world ends before the World Series is finished, the Red Sox will be world champions for eternity.

Posted by kojabu (Member # 8042) on :

Jokingly I'd say it's all Bush's fault, but in reality I think it's global warming and coincidence.

Elizabeth: [ROFL]

Posted by Elizabeth (Member # 5218) on :

Sadly, Kojabu, many Red Sox fans would probably go for this option.

Posted by Dan_raven (Member # 3383) on :

Karl Rove called. He wants you to know its really all the Bush Haters fault. They are making the natural disasters to make him, I mean the President, look bad.

Posted by littlemissattitude (Member # 4514) on :

Dan...When you talk to Karl, tell him he's projecting again and to cut it out and go talk to a professional. [Razz]

Posted by kojabu (Member # 8042) on :

quote:
Originally posted by El JT de Spang:
For those that don't believe in the End Of Days, consider this: Rick Moranis just released a country music CD.

Yes, you heard right. The guy from Honey, I Shrunk the Kids, My Blue Heaven, and Ghostbusters just came out with a record.

Have you ever heard of Bob and Doug McKenzie? It's Rick Moranis and Dave Thomas being weird. Great stuff though. They do a hilarious version of the 12 Days of Christmas.

Posted by Tante Shvester (Member # 8202) on :

First, I believe that it is all just a coincidence.

Second, it is about 5 minutes 'til midnight, so it is certainly the end of this day.

Posted by Occasional (Member # 5860) on :

I believe it is the End Days and has been for almost 200 years. After all,I belong to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Of course, that means the last period of human history and could be 100 or 1000 years from now before THE End Days. However, following LDS prophecy, I would say two thirds of major events have been fulfilled.

Posted by odouls268 (Member # 2145) on :

quote:
but does reflect a kind of worry among the general populace that things aren't going in the right direction

What would BE the "right direction?"

I for one still follow the eternal tenants of the "Everything I need to know I learned in kindergarten" poster: The world would be a much better place if at 1 o'clock everyone, the whole world, had cookies and milk and laid down for a nap.

Posted by kojabu (Member # 8042) on :

Everything I need to know I learned from Star Trek. [Wink]

Posted by Dan_raven (Member # 3383) on :

Everything I need to know I learned from a dark headed minx named Chaquita...but that is not important now.

Posted by Shawshank (Member # 8453) on :

I think that we are living in the end of days. If you read parts of the bible- they specifically name that an increase of earthquakes would come in the latter days. I think our generation will be the one to see the world end- but that's my own personal belief- it's not very "scientifically" rational- not at all indeed, but it is what I think.

Posted by Teshi (Member # 5024) on :

quote:
What would BE the "right direction?"

It depends on who you ask. Ask a religious person and they might say that people are losing their relgion. Ask a liberal socialist and they'll talk about conservative capitalists. Ask the poor and they'll say the rich.

The point isn't that the world is actually come to an end but that people perceive it that way when they think that things aren't going their way (I'm not saying that their way is necessarily wrong. I'm sure we can all agree that there are a few ways that we should definately be going in).

Posted by Askew (Member # 8438) on :

quote:
What would BE the "right direction?"

I think the right direction would be where people felt more included and at peace than more distant and hectic.

Posted by John Van Pelt (Member # 5767) on :

When I see a use of statistics in a fashion that is so clearly susceptible to distortion, I like to put it through a few filters of my own. I believe this critical eye is a useful skill to have in our complex world.

quote:
Originally posted by Father Time:
The increase in catastrophic disasters is real. It is documented and analyzed. The data supporting a trend towards super disasters has been available for over a decade.

Citation source(s) please? What is a catastrophic disaster? What is a super disaster? If the trend was visible more than a decade ago, how do disasters since 1995 figure in?

quote:
-The number of natural disasters has more than tripled since those experienced in the 1970’s.

Per year? How is natural disaster defined?

Were disasters defined the same way in the 70's, as they are today? Counted the same way? Were counts made then compared with counts made now? Or did someone now go back and recount based on reports and records from the 70's?

quote:
-More than 3 3/4 million people were killed by all disasters in past 25 years.

This does not support any idea of a 'trend.' Other than that, the usual questions apply: who says? what disasters?

quote:
-Since the 1950’s, costs associated with natural disasters have rocketed 14-fold. The year 2004 is the most catastrophic year in insurance history. The total world losses (insured and uninsured) rose to an unprecedented total of more than U.S. $150 billion.

Inflation adjusted? I didn't think so.

The mention of insurance makes me ask: where are these numbers from? Insurers? Do they have any vested interest, perhaps, in inflating their losses? The most tightly regulated industry in this country.... hmmm.

Gut check: actually, the $150 billion worldwide total for 2004 sounds low to me.

quote:
-Toward the end of the 1990’s, the world counted some 25,000,000 “environmental refugees.” For the first time in recorded history, more people had fled natural hazards than conflict.

I wonder how the compilers distinguish among environmental and war and political refugees in places where those problems overlap. Perhaps these numbers came from environmentalists, seeking to dramatize their concerns. A refugee in Tanzania from Uganda -- were they fleeing strife? Drought? Earthquake? AIDS?

Does the number include people who fled hazards in previous years, but are still counted as refugees? If so, this number could just keep going up.

quote:
-Another humanitarian disaster could be found in sub-Saharan Africa last year, where 2.2 million people died from the HIV/AIDS epidemic, while 24 million currently live with the infection.

'Humanitarian disaster' seems like apples and oranges to natural disasters. But it is included in 'evidence' about 'catastrophic disasters.'

I now see the point of this seems to be less to 'help people' with 'coordinated information,' but rather to impress people with a general notion that a lot of things are very bad, without having to be too careful about what things, how bad, and if or how they are related.

In particular, let's say it could be shown that there were a statistically significant increase in tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcano eruptions (to pick a category). This would likely point to some kind of tectonic or at any rate geophysical cause. It seems unlikely to me that any effort to study or address that question would have any bearing on an effort to study or address the question of AIDS. This 'information' is far from coordinated.

quote:
-In 2004, Florida was hit by four hurricanes in the space of only a few weeks, making it one of the most costly hurricane seasons ever for insurers. At the same time, Japan was hit by a record number of ten tropical cyclones.

So? Is this unusual? Who says? By what measure?

Here's some interesting data (link) though it does not include the unfinished 2005 season:

Year with most (Atlantic Basin) tropical storms: 1995
Year with most hurricanes: 1969
Year with most major hurricanes: 1950
Same categories above for USA landfalling storms: 1916; 1916,'85; 1909, '33, '54
Most recent year with least major hurricanes (0): 1994
Most recent year with least major USA landfalling hurricanes (0): 2003

And the decades represented in the lists of the top 28-30 hurricanes in 3 categories (link):

code:

        |        | STRENGTH     | $ DAMAGE
DECADE  | DEATHS | (atm. prsr.) | (infl. adj.)
----------------------------------------------
1900's  | *****  | *            | * 
1910's  | ****   | *****        | **
1920's  | **     | ***          | **
1930's  | ****   | *****        | *  
1940's  | **     | **           | *****
1950's  | *****  | ***          | ***
1960's  | ****   | ****         | *****
1970's  | *      | **           | ***
1980's  |        | ***          | **
1990's  | *      | **           | ****
2000's  | *      |              | **

This data does not seem to support an increase in catastrophic disasters. If such a trend exists, Atlantic Basin hurricanes are not part of the story.

quote:
-Killer earthquakes (with scale ratings of 6.0 or above) have jumped from a cumulative total of 9 in the 1950’s, to 51 in the 1970's, to 285 in the 1990's, and already 190+ in the 2000’s.

What is a 'scale rating'? Why are the 50's cited, but not the 60's? What is the source of this? What does 'cumulative' mean? Why is the phrase 'killer quake' used, thus confusing the reader as to whether we are talking about deaths, or seismic intensity?

In fact, the numbers cited here are complete rubbish. "As more and more seismographs are installed in the world, more earthquakes can be and have been located. However, the number of large earthquakes (magnitude 6.0 and greater) have stayed relatively constant." (Link and data.)

quote:
-The 1980's and 1990's were the most violent years on record for the actual number of and resulting damage from armed conflicts (including acts of terrorism, insurrection, and war).

See note above regarding AIDS. In fact we seem to have jumbled random 'facts' and misinformation from various very different categories: seismic, meteorological, health, and political. Some do interrelate (e.g., drought can contribute to disease and war) but no effort is made to make distinctions here.

Let's look at some facts:

War Deaths Said to Be Declining (Washington Times)
The number of major armed conflicts began declining in 1989 and has continued to trend downward ever since, according to the latest annual report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute...

Here are some interesting additional tips for scrutinizing statistics, particularly war statistics (link):

Even though the exact number may be unknown and possibly unknowable, you can still be absolutely, inarguably wrong if you misquote or misinterpret your source. If, for example, you claim that 20,000 Catholics were executed by a dictator, when in fact, the source you cite specifically says "20,000 political prisoners, many of them Catholic, were executed", then you are wrong, simple as that. (Well, unless you explain yourself...)
Apples and Oranges: Do you know exactly what is being counted in an estimate?
When someone says that 50,000 people were killed in a war, do they mean ...
- 50,000 soldiers were killed in combat?
- 50,000 soldiers died of all causes, including accidents and disease?
- 50,000 people were killed as a direct result of violence, including both soldiers and civilians?
- 50,000 people, soldiers and civilians, died of all causes, including famine and hardship?
When someone says that War A killed more people than War B, is it possible that the estimate for War A includes more categories of dead (Type 4D) than the estimate for War B (Type 4A)? And maybe, if we compared them using the same categories, the ranking would be reversed?

quote:
Part of the increase can be traced to the improvements in technology and our ability to "see" disasters in remote areas of the world.

An 'increase' that has not been demonstrated.

And even if it were supported by the statistics given, it might be traced to more than technology and sensing. It is stongly impacted by population trends. Are the dollar figures inflation adjusted? And consider, too, that weather forecasting technology actually reduces the impact of some disasters (note the decline in hurricane deaths since 1900, above).

If there is such a thing as an end of days, and if it might be heralded by an increase in disasters,' then these 'statistics' do not suggest it is occurring.

It may be occurring, but nothing here supports that assertion.

Edit: typo

[ October 16, 2005, 02:49 PM: Message edited by: John Van Pelt ]