This seems a little too easy, I was expecting you know, a top secret operation where a crazy NK colonel tries to steal a nuke and detonate it to kick off wwiii before being stopped by a gutsy CIA agent who hates being president.
Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :
North Korea must be having a huge internal food and energy crisis. All the same, it's nice to see some progress.
Posted by Dan_raven (Member # 3383) on :
Amazing. We cut off their secret money laundering system, and suddenly they want to talk. What an amazing coincidence.
Posted by Counter Bean (Member # 10176) on :
No doubt, and the fact that they fired a wet firecracker nuke, so the most milage they could get out of it was to barter the best deal possible. Iran is playing nice too and Putin is schedualed to chat, I have to say that sometimes all the dimes drop in a row.
Posted by Ethics Gradient (Member # 878) on :
Its good news. Remains to be seen whether NK will follow through... But we can hope.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
If it sets an example for the world, we'll be building light water reactors all over the middle east soon.
But better that than ICBMs flying all over the eastern half the world.
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
Also the recent Chinese troop deployments north of the Yalu river probly also had something to do with DPRK's decision to hurry up.
Posted by Lavalamp (Member # 4337) on :
Ah c'mon, it also sets and example for us.
We were patient, held the multi-lateral talks we wanted, cooperated with our partners, and worked out a deal that got us exactly what we wanted for less per YEAR than the cost of a MONTH of troop deployment and support would have.
Would that we could have accomplished the same "miracle" in relation to Iraq.
I'm still hopeful for a similar success in Iran.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: Also the recent Chinese troop deployments north of the Yalu river probly also had something to do with DPRK's decision to hurry up.
Details? What'd they station there?
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
troops, planes, tanks other war/kickass stuff usually involved, heard it watching a discussion between the American Ambassador to China, China Expert at MIT, and I think a China Watcher Senater discussing China's rise in the world and using China's active and commited participation in the 6 Party talks as a sign of good faith.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Numbers please.
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
The Ambassador didnt give numbers, I can give a link but its a 30 minute long discussion and large portions of it irrelevent. He just stated that China began troop deployments North of the Yalu river to subtly pressure North Korean compliance.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Without numbers the whole thing might be irrelevant. If they sent a single armored regiment and a brigade of troops, that's nothing. North Korea is probably the most entrenched nation on the planet, a minor troop redeployment from China isn't going to register as anything more than saber rattling.
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
considering that with a militaryt he size China has moving a single regiment is hardly gonna register in US intelligence reports, it is probly sizeable enough to have been important enough for intelligence to mentiont to the Ambassador as he was doing his rounds.
Posted by Euripides (Member # 9315) on :
I'm glad we're on the road to de-nuking North Korea and I think this is the right move for each of the six parties, but it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. NK has constantly held the world to ransom, both by developing and threatening to use nuclear weapons, and by allowing its economy and people's standard of living to sink to such dismal levels. And now they are receiving a bribe of 1 million tons of oil in return for disarming. I support Abe's decision to withhold aid until the issue of abducted Japanese citizens is resolved.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
I dunno whatcha think occurred, but the socio-politico-economic situation is going to become basicly about the same as before Dubya decided to prod NorthKorea into going nuclear. Except now there is no way of knowing how much plutonium or uranium NorthKorea extracted from the fuel rods short of chemical separation&analysis, followed by isotope-ratio analysis. And an agreement to reseal the reactor and allow monitoring doesn't help at all as far as gaining the freedom to make such quantitative analyses.
Writing this in hope that someone here has run across a more detailed article than the ones I've run across, and that the article will put to lie my take on what's happening.
[ February 14, 2007, 02:21 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
What with China playing America to NorthKorea's Mexico, I'd bet the Chinese troop deployment has a lot more to do with preventing NorthKoreans from migrating across the border than as any sort of military sabre-rattling.
Posted by Euripides (Member # 9315) on :
quote:Originally posted by aspectre:
I dunno whatcha think occurred, but the socio-politico-economic situation is going to become basicly about the same as before Dubya decided to prod NorthKorea into going nuclear.
Were you talking to me? Wouldn't you agree that it's a step in the right direction?
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
quote:Originally posted by aspectre: What with China playing America to NorthKorea's Mexico, I'd bet the Chinese troop deployment has a lot more to do with preventing NorthKoreans from migrating across the border than as any sort of military sabre-rattling.
Which makes the assumption that the military movement was in fact THE reason for their change in policy even more dubious.
Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lavalamp: We were patient, held the multi-lateral talks we wanted, cooperated with our partners, and worked out a deal that got us exactly what we wanted for less per YEAR than the cost of a MONTH of troop deployment and support would have.
Would that we could have accomplished the same "miracle" in relation to Iraq.
I'm still hopeful for a similar success in Iran.
Exactly.
Posted by Rakeesh (Member # 2001) on :
Isn't it a bit too early to be declaring miracle just yet, Bob & Twinky?
Don't get me wrong, this is definitely a good sign. I am relieved and happy about it. But there hasn't been a substantive miracle yet.
Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :
Bob? Lavalamp is Bob?
In any case, I took the usage of "miracle" to be somewhat facetious there -- I thought it was in quotes for that reason. I think this is a good first step, and it's really nice to finally see some progress.
Posted by Rakeesh (Member # 2001) on :
I thought he was...but I could be mistaken..
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
Take a look at Lavalamp's profile Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :
Well, that answers that question.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
"Were you talking to me?"
Not specificly but rather to the tone of the thread in general, which seemed to be "this is Dubya's new peace initiative" rather than "this is a return to the old Clinton agreement."
"Wouldn't you agree that it's a step in the right direction?"
Anything that ticks off the swaggering little twerpstrying to disguise their greed&cowardice with threats and evil actions is a step in the right direction.
BTW: "...North Korea has not committed a terrorist act since the 1987 bombing of a Korean Air Lines flight." is a load of pure malicious propaganda by MSNBC editors, and by WashingtonPost editors and the US Department of State if that sentence accurately reflects what was said by StateDepartment officials. 1) There was no bombing. It was missile intercept of an unidentified aircraft clearly flying over NorthKorean territory. 2) There was no terrorism. All sovereign nations have the right to control their own airspace; up to and including downing aircraft which refuse to identify themselves or refuse to follow orders to land. There is no doubt that KAL Flight007 fit that description. 3) The question is whether the KAL pilot was operating under direct orders from the SouthKorean government to deliberately fly over NorthKorean territory, to deliberately provoke a hostile response. This incident was the second time that the USCongress was on the verge of reducing aid to SouthKorea, until a plane with Congressmen onboard was flown directly over NorthKorean territory. The second time that an internationally legal NorthKorean response caused Congress to reverse itself on SouthKorean aid reduction.
[ February 15, 2007, 08:57 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by twinky: North Korea must be having a huge internal food and energy crisis. All the same, it's nice to see some progress.
Um, they have had both of those things for the past 50+ years.
China was definitely "quite annoyed" when NK detonated that nuclear device after China over and over requested that they refrain.
I doubt China moved their army around as a way to pressure NK into some sort of deal. China just wants stability in the region so they can make more money, using troops usually escalates a situation when it comes to NK.
I really think NK internally is just in REALLY bad shape, and the fuel and supplies they have demanded in exchange for dismantling their program is purely a means where they will be able to maintain control over the population.
Little known fact: North Korea is believed by many to have the most advanced and well trained special forces unit in all of Asia.
Posted by Survivor (Member # 233) on :
Yeah, it has something with the "sneak into a hostile country just to get food" thing, I think. Basic ninja training Posted by Euripides (Member # 9315) on :
Tangentially related question: How much media attention do David Hicks and NK's abductions of Japanese citizens get in the US? (Not much of the latter in Australia)
Posted by Ethics Gradient (Member # 878) on :
I think China is playing this smart. At the end of the day, they know that NK can't last indefinitely but could escalate the situation to one in which China can step in as the only party able to resolve the issue peacefully.
The troop reployment mentioned above - if confirmed - would lend weight to this idea. It would suggest that China is showing NK that it's not kidding around and that it expects adherence to the agreement.
This situation could be read as China showing the world that it is a responsible, independent and mature power.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
"How much media attention do David Hicks and NK's abductions of Japanese citizens get in the US?"
Americans aren't much interested in AustralianRulesFootball. Just kidding... ..."the Australian Taliban" shows up more often in US news than "the American Taliban"/"the British Taliban"/etc; but I doubt that more than a percent of Americans would even vaguely recognize his actual name. He still isn't a cause celebre to the US peace movement or to antiGuantanamo protestors. Never drew a "water cooler conversation at work" level of public interest.
Brief flurry of direct interest about NorthKorea's kidnapping of Japanese citizens, though mostly as a "man bites dog" oddity except to the "commies under every bed" crowd. Mentioned in news articles when Japanese-NorthKorean relations are discussed, but again not a "water cooler conversation" draw.
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