Hatrack River Forum: Heliogenic climate change: not so much

This is topic Heliogenic climate change: not so much in forum Books, Films, Food and Culture at Hatrack River Forum.

To visit this topic, use this URL:
http://www.hatrack.com/ubb/main/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=052003

Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :

Results from a few different research efforts were presented at an American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting last week.

quote:
Lean concluded that, over the past 100 years, changes in the sun's output have driven the temperature up by about 0.1 K, but greenhouse gases have had a seven fold effect compared to the sun—0.7 K.

...

Dr. Ammann also discussed some climate modeling results. He showed that modern climate models that take into account natural forcings do a rather good job at predicting past climate data—they're all within the uncertainty of the temperature measurements. These models and reality only diverge in the past 50 years and, when greenhouse gas forcings are added in, the two match closely all the way to the present.

...

The message of the talks was clear: although the sun's output is variable, those variations have occurred over a defined range for the last 50 years, with no trend once the variation is smoothed out. It's not the sun, and the only way to get the rising temperatures we see is to include greenhouse forcings in the climate models.

Heliogenic climate change has been cited by anthropogenic climate change skeptics as a more likely cause of observed trends in global temperatures, but it appears that heliogenic effects are insufficient to explain the observed trends. Anthropogenic effects, on the other hand, explain the trends reasonably well.

Posted by Jon Boy (Member # 4284) on :

Thanks for the link, twinky.

Posted by orlox (Member # 2392) on :

I've been wading through all the stuff coming out of the meeting but missed this. Thanks.

On teh other hand, I understand the sun has a liberal bias...

Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :

quote:
Originally posted by orlox:
On teh other hand, I understand the sun has a liberal bias...

Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :

quote:
it appears that heliogenic effects are insufficient to explain the observed trends.

*statement subject to convenient non-remembering

Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Samprimary:

quote:
it appears that heliogenic effects are insufficient to explain the observed trends.
*statement subject to convenient non-remembering

This makes me sad. [Frown]

Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :

Whoop see there we go

Posted by orlox (Member # 2392) on :

quote:
Since the ice froze at sea level, it will melt to sea level. It physically cannot rise above sea level any more than a glass filled with ice will overflow when the ice melts. Claims of drastic rises in sea levels are nothing more than envirocrat lies.

Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :

quote:
Originally posted by orlox:

quote:
Since the ice froze at sea level, it will melt to sea level. It physically cannot rise above sea level any more than a glass filled with ice will overflow when the ice melts. Claims of drastic rises in sea levels are nothing more than envirocrat lies.

What the ...?

---

*smacks forehead

Of course! It's that universal time-as-well-as-space constant, The Sea Level. I hear the TARDIS uses it to calibrate instruments.

Posted by Jon Boy (Member # 4284) on :

It's a good thing there aren't any ice caps above sea level, where they could melt and run down into the ocean.

Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :

But that's just crazy talk, Jon Boy. How would ice ever have gotten there above sea level?

It doesn't have wings! (Crazy talk, I tell you.)

Posted by Jon Boy (Member # 4284) on :

Exactly! I've heard rumors that sometimes ice actually falls from the sky, but obviously that's another enviro-fascist lie. How did it get up there? I mean, we all know that ice floats on water, but it most certainly doesn't fly.

Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :

Ducks float on water. So do witches.

Ice is, obvious, made of ducks with witchly tendencies. Burn it! Burn it!

Posted by ketchupqueen (Member # 6877) on :

Isn't that a bit premature? Shouldn't we get out the giant scales to weigh the icebergs and such first?

Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :

quote:
Originally posted by ClaudiaTherese:
Ducks float on water. So do witches.

Ice is, obvious, made of ducks

::nods::

That's why it can fly.

In Australia they used to have ice that was made of dodos, but it was all used up in early European settlers' drinks, and no longer exists.

Posted by ketchupqueen (Member # 6877) on :

(Also, ice turned me into a newt!)

Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :

Be careful about lighting ice on fire, I hear it has a really low explosive limit.

Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :

You have to wear goggles. Or you see visions in the flames.

Posted by Launchywiggin (Member # 9116) on :

So a family of environmentalists goes into a talent agent's office...

"So what's your act?"

The family gets into a gas-guzzling SUV, take their recyclables, and put them in the trash can. The son lights up a cigarette and tosses the finished butt out the window into a protected wetland. They leave all of their lights on while away from the house (using INCANDESCENT bulbs), and they finish off by hijacking and crashing an oil tanker, killing off all the local wildlife.

"Well that sure is something" says the talent agent. "What do you call an act like that?"

"The Envirocrats!"

Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :

[ROFL]

Posted by Jon Boy (Member # 4284) on :

quote:
Originally posted by twinky:
Be careful about lighting ice on fire, I hear it has a really low explosive limit.

So what you're saying is that the entire nation of Canada is basically one gigantic powder keg?

Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :

Exactly. Now you see why we're so keen to export all of our oil! We need to keep fire to a minimum up here.

Posted by Jon Boy (Member # 4284) on :

Hmm. But if ice is so explosive, wouldn't it potentially make a better fuel than oil? I sense a Canadian trick.

Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :

Oh no! He's figured out our secret plan to build the ultimate weapon: the ICE BOMB!

Posted by Jon Boy (Member # 4284) on :

Well, I hadn't quite figured it out until you said it, but still . . .

[Eek!]

Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :

[Smile]

Posted by orlox (Member # 2392) on :

More envirocrat lies.

Posted by JonHecht (Member # 9712) on :

I'm not sure whether or not you're being facetious.

Posted by orlox (Member # 2392) on :

[Big Grin]

Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :

quote:
Originally posted by orlox:

quote:
Since the ice froze at sea level, it will melt to sea level. It physically cannot rise above sea level any more than a glass filled with ice will overflow when the ice melts. Claims of drastic rises in sea levels are nothing more than envirocrat lies.

Which completely ignores the fact that the majority of predicted change in the sea level is due to thermal expansion of water as a result of rising temperatures and has nothing to do with melting ice caps at all.

Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :

Thanks twinky but I would like to add that these new results don't change the climate change picture significantly. Numerous studies over the past 5 - 10 years have come to the same conclusion. This research simply confirms and refines what we have known for some time.

Posted by orlox (Member # 2392) on :

Except for the rofl part, you realize that is not my sentiment but a quote from:

quote:
Originally posted by Samprimary:
Whoop see there we go

Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :

Thanks for pointing that out, Rabbit. [Smile]

And thanks for the additional link, orlox. You seem to have a knack for posting interesting links. [Cool]

Posted by orlox (Member # 2392) on :

Thanks twinky! I needed some encouragement today.
[Cool]