But in the meantime. Between now and tomorrow night, post your electral college guess and if you want, an explanation of your guess. I figure Election Day itself deserves its own thread to cover the ever changing information we'll get during the day. The other threads were about the race, this is about the culmination.
I'm charting a middle of the road course and saying 326 for Obama, 212 for McCain. Obama wins every Kerry state plus: NC, VA, CO, IA, NM, OH and NV. The highest I reasonably see it going? 364 for Obama if you include Missouri and Florida. Anything over that includes all the longshot states like Georgia, Arizona, and some of the interior mountain west like MT and ND.
326 looks like a reasonable and very realistic guess however when you consider polling data, trends, early voting numbers, registration numbers, and ground game. Of the states I gave Obama, I think North Carolina is the most likely to stay with McCain.
Posted by Vadon (Member # 4561) on :
I think 326 is a very safe bet, but I think there has been enough positive polling from Florida that I'm going to put it in my Obama column. So I'm going to say 353 - 185.
I could see Missouri flipping, but the polls have been so tight that I don't want to call it to Obama yet. I wanted Indiana to flip because of Obama's huge ground game, but I'm thinking it won't.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
I'm working on Missouri -- tonight my mom forwarded me an e-mail full of outright lies. I found the e-mail quoted in its entirety on Factcheck.org and sent the link back to her.
So for no better reason than eternal optimism, I'm going to take the 326 and throw another 11 on for my home state -- 337. I'm more skeptical of FL, especially if the retirees there believe half of what was in that deceitful e-mail that's going around.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
I don't care enough about the details to make predictions on a state-by-state basis. My dad does -- he sent me (among others) a whole spreadsheet.
It makes my head hurt. Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
I'm gonna bet on at least 370 for true "landslideage".
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
I bet 291 for Obama and 247 for McCain, who ends up taking Ohio, NC, and Florida, and Obama wins the popular vote 51-48 (the same as in 04). This election will not be a blow out, it will be close, and it may just turn on whether Nevada (yes, Nevada) votes for Obama or McCain.
For instance, say McCain takes NC, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, and Obama takes the states that he is favored in, like Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. At that point, Obama takes the northeast and the three western most states not including Alaska. That leaves Nevada as a toss up state because the electoral map would be 265 for Obama and 268 for McCain. Nevada has 5 electoral votes, where if they go for Obama its 270 for Obama and 268 for McCain. If not, thats 273 for McCain and 265 for Obama.
I don't think that will happen, but this election will be alot closer than we imagine.
Posted by Strider (Member # 1807) on :
Obama volunteers in PA aren't sleeping till tuesday night(probably wednesday). We have busloads of people coming in from NY, NJ, and CT and that's just on this side of the state. We even currently have some people from Ireland volunteering at our main office who flew in specifically for this.
No matter how far ahead Obama is in the polls here, volunteers are not letting up a bit, and have in fact doubled(or tripled) our efforts coming into the stretch.
If enthusiasm is any indicator, Obama should do quite well here.
Posted by aiua (Member # 7825) on :
I bet that either McCain or Obama will win.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
A daring call!
Posted by Strider (Member # 1807) on :
did you delete a post Lyrhawn? I didn't notice anything particularly worthy of deletion there.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Yeah I did.
I was talking about the extremely small chance of Humean's hypothetical coming true. A second later I decided that discussing polling data and the such like I was doing made more sense in the other thread. Also I didn't want to rebut anyone's guess, as I didn't want anyone to see that and be discouraged from venturing forth their own guess. I'll save my rebutting and discussing of polls and such for tomorrow night/Tuesday afternoon.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
quote:
quote:I bet that either McCain or Obama will win.
A daring call!
Especially since being selected to clean up after Dubya's MySpace party ain't exactly what most people would call a win.
[ November 03, 2008, 02:34 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
I mentioned earlier that if I were gonna bet on ev outcomes I'd put Obama at about 350.
Things are 'tightening up,' but that is a statement that pertains mostly to overall popular vote. I am not sure it is having a significant effect on the electoral vote side. Maybe it'll throw MO or NV to McCain.
/edit -- here in CO, it's been a complete wash for Obama. I have gotten calls from five volunteers. They have all offered rides. I even asked "If I'm voting for McCain, will you still give me a ride?" They said yes, absolutely, the important thing is to participate in the democratic process. Over the last two days, seven people have knocked on my door and delivered obama flyers. They bussed volunteers down to places like Colorado Springs to hold Obama signs on street corners and help with Get Out The Vote programs elsewhere. The obama headquarters is up all night. I've seen.
On the other end of the spectrum, the McCain ground game is a ghost. Nothing. Nada. The county republicans office put a bunch of signs in front of their lawn and called it a night, I guess. I got one robocall.
[ November 03, 2008, 05:18 AM: Message edited by: Samprimary ]
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Polls out this weekend show NC teetering towards McCain, with MO neck and neck, and NV still leaning Obama.
Posted by Javert (Member # 3076) on :
I predict Bush gets a third term.
Or maybe I'm just saying the worst possible result as a way of making sure it doesn't happen...
Posted by PSI Teleport (Member # 5545) on :
quote: I'm working on Missouri -- tonight my mom forwarded me an e-mail full of outright lies. I found the e-mail quoted in its entirety on Factcheck.org and sent the link back to her.
Was this the "Obama and the flag" one?
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
quote:Originally posted by PSI Teleport:
quote: I'm working on Missouri -- tonight my mom forwarded me an e-mail full of outright lies. I found the e-mail quoted in its entirety on Factcheck.org and sent the link back to her.
Was this the "Obama and the flag" one?
No, it was an elaborate comparison of McCain's tax plan vs. a compeletely fabricated Obama tax plan. You can see the text at Fact Check where they refuted it.
Posted by Javert (Member # 3076) on :
If we're seriously betting on electoral counts, mine is:
Obama 291 McCain 247
That's my conservative guess, and gives McCain every current swing state. (MT, ND, MO, IN, OH, FL, & NC)
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
It's almost finished. Wow, I can name the source of most of these. I wish it came with reference links.
--j_k
[ November 03, 2008, 12:33 PM: Message edited by: James Tiberius Kirk ]
Posted by PSI Teleport (Member # 5545) on :
Link doesn't work, I'm guessing because of asterisks.
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
Intrade seems to be betting: Obama 364 McCain 174
That seems to be much higher than most of the predictions here, not entirely sure what accounts for the disparity.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by James Tiberius Kirk: It's almost finished. Wow, I can name the source of most of these. I wish it came with reference links.
--j_k
You'll need to tinyurl that link since hatrack seems to be editing out the curse word in the link even though it doesn't display on the screen.
Posted by katharina (Member # 827) on :
Colorado, Pennsylvania, FLorida, and Virginia go blue. Montana and South Carolina go red.
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit:
quote:Originally posted by James Tiberius Kirk: It's almost finished. Wow, I can name the source of most of these. I wish it came with reference links.
--j_k
You'll need to tinyurl that link since hatrack seems to be editing out the curse word in the link even though it doesn't display on the screen.
[ November 03, 2008, 12:32 PM: Message edited by: James Tiberius Kirk ]
Posted by Epictetus (Member # 6235) on :
I say it's going to be about 311 Obama to 227 McCain. Kind of my "worst case" scenario where all the toss-ups except Ohio go to McCain.
Note: Toss-up according the the New York Times electoral map, there may be some discrepancy there that I'm overlooking.
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
I'll post my prediction sometime tonight.
--j_k
Posted by Lisa (Member # 8384) on :
quote:Originally posted by aiua: I bet that either McCain or Obama will win.
Pessimist...
Posted by Lisa (Member # 8384) on :
quote:Originally posted by James Tiberius Kirk:
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit:
quote:Originally posted by James Tiberius Kirk: It's almost finished. Wow, I can name the source of most of these. I wish it came with reference links.
--j_k
You'll need to tinyurl that link since hatrack seems to be editing out the curse word in the link even though it doesn't display on the screen.
You should use SnipURL instead. TinyURL is more likely to have malware.
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
what would the President-elect do for the 2 months before inaugoration?
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lisa: You should use SnipURL instead. TinyURL is more likely to have malware.
Not if you have the preview function turned on.
Posted by lem (Member # 6914) on :
quote: and it may just turn on whether Nevada (yes, Nevada) votes for Obama or McCain.
I think Nevada will go to Obama because of the Ron Paul effect. Ron Paul has a strong supporter base comprised of mostly Republicans in NV. They are going to write him in, sit out, or vote for a third party candidate.
He did really well in the Nevada primaries, and Ron Paul supporters are not likely to vote for McCain.
Even if it is only 3-5%, in a close match it will make a huge difference. I also think Paul will flip Montana to Obama. He is on the ballot there as the Constitution Party candidate. If he gets 5% and Barr gets 1% Montana could easily go to Obama--especially considering the blue trends in that state.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: what would the President-elect do for the 2 months before inaugoration?
Start preparing for his administration. Choose advisors, cabinet members, staff members....prepare for his inaugural address....plan his strategy for introducing his proposed legislation to congress...and etc. and etc. I think he'll be quite busy.
Posted by Orincoro (Member # 8854) on :
I'm calling: 360 for Obama, 178 McCain.
I realize that's a way long shot, but I think pollsters are are getting shy about calling it a blowout, and they're not really considering the kind of new voter and youth turnout that we're going to see. I also think republican tactics to intimidate and discourage voters will be the final last-gasp death knell for the party.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
"I also think republican tactics to intimidate and discourage voters will be the final last-gasp death knell for the party."
the demise of the democratic party was greatly overstated in 2004. Likewise, the demise of the republican party is being greatly overstated in 2008.
Not that I wouldn't LIKE to see both parties go down in a blaze of flaming wreckage. But it ain't happenin until we pass legislation to untangle the parties and the states.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by rivka:
quote:Originally posted by Lisa: You should use SnipURL instead. TinyURL is more likely to have malware.
Not if you have the preview function turned on.
Or if you have Firefoxe's Noscripts addon. Initially it's a pain because it blocks EVERY website you go to but with patience your regular websites all get permission to run, and the occasional new website is kept from doing the unexpected.
Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
Just like always, money wins elections. Obama has it, McCain doesn't...
Obama 338, McCain 200
Posted by Juxtapose (Member # 8837) on :
Obama - 353 - CO, FL, NC, NM, NV, OH, PA
McCain - 185 - IN, MO
Edit - This is my conservative guess. No, seriously.
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
quote:Originally posted by James Tiberius Kirk: I'll post my prediction sometime tonight.
--j_k
Was waiting for a few more polls.
Obama 338 200 McCain
Obama is Kerry+IA,VA,FL,CO,NM,NV,OH. I don't think he'll get NC.
--j_k
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
quote:Originally posted by Paul Goldner: "I also think republican tactics to intimidate and discourage voters will be the final last-gasp death knell for the party."
the demise of the democratic party was greatly overstated in 2004. Likewise, the demise of the republican party is being greatly overstated in 2008.
Not that I wouldn't LIKE to see both parties go down in a blaze of flaming wreckage. But it ain't happenin until we pass legislation to untangle the parties and the states.
I don't remember the gaps between Kerry and Bush being anywhere near the level we've seen here. Didn't that election all come down to Ohio? There's no way this election all comes down to one state.
Which leads to my serious prediction, electoral college map aside:
Winner announced by 10 p.m. central time. Posted by Sterling (Member # 8096) on :
A couple of pundits have noted that the polls don't tend to hit people who have no landline, a block which swings to the young and minorities, who are more likely to favor Obama.
It wouldn't surprise me to see him take Florida and Ohio; they're both pretty close, anyway.
I'm thinking Obama in the low 320s.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
538.com has nice charts that illustrate the cell-phone effect, using polls that include/exclude cellphones. link
My hope is the cellphone effect counters the Baxter effect and it's a wash.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
My prediction: 356 Obama 182 McCain Electoral College. 52% Obama, 46% McCain Popular vote, with the difference in Barr/Paul/McKinney.
Out of pollster.com 's toss-up states (FL, GA, IA NC, MO, MT, ND) Obama gets FL, GA and MT.
Pollster.com is calling OH, VA and CO all lean Obama. Along with FL and PA, these are the important bellwethers--if McCain hopes to win, he has to pick up some of these. I think VA and CO are the key states to watch ie whoever wins VA and CO wins the presidency.
BTW, I picked FL in 2000 and OH in 2004 as the bellwethers (along with lots of other people) so I hope I'm right about VA and CO. Posted by Darth_Mauve (Member # 4709) on :
I think McCain in a landslide.
Come on, some one has to bet on the longshot.
Here's how it goes.
The Baxter Effect swings a few sates.
Florida stays red through a combination of doa voting systems in Democratic strongholds and the disappearance of three truckloads of paper ballots that will later be found in the midst of the everglades.
Ohio and Pennsylvania will go to McCain thanks to Diebold. In return for helping with the win, new laws will be passed demanding Diebold Paperless Voting machines, not only across the country, but in Congress itself.
California sinks into the ocean due to a possibly Republican instigated earthquake, so their votes do not count.
The resulting tidal wave drowns the Hawain voting machines after a freak influx of Republicans had cast their votes, leaving the islands officially supporting McCain.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
quote:Originally posted by Darth_Mauve: California sinks into the ocean due to a possibly Republican instigated earthquake, so their votes do not count.
Scott, you promised!!! Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Haha, even Karl Rove is predicting a sizable Obama win!
quote:The final Rove & Co. electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow, the largest electoral margin since 1996.
This thread will be officially open for the business of discussion about results in 20 minutes when Dixville Notch and Hart's Location start voting. We should have our first results short after that.
For myself, I'm getting up in about six hours to head to the poll before I head off to school.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Obama wins Dixville Notch, marking the first time in 40 years that a Democrat has won this teeny tiny New Hampshire town.
Posted by kmbboots (Member # 8576) on :
Yay! Dixville Notch. Obama 15; McCain 6
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Perhaps just as importantly for the Senate, Shaheen beat Sununu in Dixville.
Edit to add: Obama also won 17 to 10 in Hart's Location (and a shoutout to Lisa, there were two write in votes for Ron Paul).
[ November 04, 2008, 01:56 AM: Message edited by: Lyrhawn ]
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
The McCain campaign has issued a statement warning that exit polls are biased in favor of democrats.
I find this very disturbing. Internationally, exit polls are considered one the best ways to detect election fraud. In fact, the US has helped pay for exit polls in fledgling democracies like Georgia (the republic no the state).
If we can't trust the exit polls and we can't trust the closed source easily hacked voting machines, how can we have confidence that our elections are on the up and up?
I really really hope that this election does not come down to another "surprise" victory for the republicans that has the opposite result of all the pre-election polls and exit polls.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
There's a reason McCain said that, and I don't think it's based on hard data.
Saying that exit polls are Democratically biased (like the media, everyone on the other side of the oceans, and apparently, reality) might give people who look at exit polls throughout the day a good reason to head to the polls when they might otherwise think "what's the point?" In otherwords, if exit polls show Democratic wins across the board, McCain saying "don't trust them, still vote for me!" is a way to rally the troops.
Besides, the McCain campaign thinks that EVERYTHING is biased for liberals. It's amazing, with our magical powers of coersion and our socialist takeover in the offing, that we even let McCain put his name on the ballots.
Posted by Strider (Member # 1807) on :
Early results Barack Obama 87.2% (686,907 votes) John McCain 12.8% (101,131 votes) VOTE Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
An hour and forty minute wait for me, arriving at the polls at 7:23. I was voter number 311, so I think they need a better set up if they're only moving 150 through an hour.
That said, I was extremely pleased with how they were handling new voters. Minnesota has same day registration, and a volunteer was walking the line handing people the registration sheet they needed to fill out so they could do it while they waited, and making sure they had the identification or documents they needed to prove they lived in the ward. It all seemed to go very smoothly, and there were a LOT of new registrants, and by far the highest level of minority turn out I've ever seen at my polling place. Pretty cool.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
"I was voter number 311, so I think they need a better set up if they're only moving 150 through an hour."
In virginia, state law is one machine per 750 voters. If each voter takes 5 minutes, we'd vote until friday.
We need more resources. Not a better setup.
Posted by sndrake (Member # 4941) on :
Mixed result. I got to verify my registration and vote within ten minutes.
Diane was tied up for over an hour.
Diane uses a wheelchair and has limited arm mobility.
The computerized accessible equipment didn't work - printer was offline and couldn't register her vote. Over 30 minutes of phone calls to try to problem-solve with no luck.
Next - try for a paper ballot. They give her a form that is actually one that is for a person filling out a *provisional* ballot (your registration can't be verified), and she balked at signing that. Finally, they found an "emergency ballot" form, which gets your paper ballot into an envelope to be sent in and counted. By that time, she had concerns about her vote getting counted by way of paper ballot.
So she opted for me going into the voting booth with her and pulling the levers for her. She trusts me, we both know who we're voting for, but she shouldn't have had to resort to that.
We're hearing there are widespread problems with the accessible voting machines right now that we're in the office.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
I showed up shortly before 8, and was surprised to see that there was very little line at all. I'd guess that there were probably 9 people ahead of me in line. I opted to fill out a paper ballot, which meant that I was able to bypass what little line there was (since they were all waiting to use the electronic machines).
I was a little surprised, outside the polling place, to find that while there were representatives of the Democratic party handing out "voting guides", they didn't have any republican counterparts.
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
quote:We need more resources. Not a better setup.
Minnesota uses paper ballots and a counting machine. There was not a wait to feed your ballot into the machine, there was a wait to get into one of the stations to fill out your paper ballot. If we had been in a larger room with twice the number of stations, people could have moved through twice as fast and the machine still wouldn't have been the hold up. So in my polling place, it was indeed a better set-up that was needed.
We were in a community center in a park, in about a 20' x 30' room, with tables along one wall to pick up your ballot and voting stations along the other wall. There is a junior high school 4 blocks away, if they had been set up in the gym there I bet there wouldn't have been any wait at all. Or, if they would have had the ballot tables in the vestibule outside the room and stations all the wall around the room they could have accomplished the same thing. The stations are just plastic tables tall enough to write at standing up with a shield on each side so your neighbor can't see your vote. If they don't have more of those, which would surprise me, if they were set up in a gym they could easily just use regular tables spaced out for privacy.
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
sndrake, one of the people behind me in line asked about accessible voting, as she was planning on coming back later with her father, who uses a wheelchair. The line outside the polling place was quite long and parts of it were on a steep hill. The initial answer was that he'd have to wait in line anyway, which she didn't accept, as at the old polling place they had always brought him to the front of the line. She talked to a couple more people, and they agreed that when she brought him she could pull up by the door and they would bring the ballot out for him to vote, and she would walk it in and feed it into the machine. She also pointed out to them that there was a woman in line on the hill with a cane who didn't look too stable, and they went over the her and offered to bring her to the head of the line to vote.
Posted by kmbboots (Member # 8576) on :
Where I voted, if there were people who had trouble standing in line, the poll worker would let the voter sit up near the front of the line until it was that person's turn to vote. When the line "caught up" to where the voter would have been standing.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Saying that exit polls are Democratically biased (like the media, everyone on the other side of the oceans, and apparently, reality) might give people who look at exit polls throughout the day a good reason to head to the polls when they might otherwise think "what's the point?" In otherwords, if exit polls show Democratic wins across the board, McCain saying "don't trust them, still vote for me!" is a way to rally the troops.
And there is another possible reason -- the election really is rigged and the McCain campaign are trying to prepare people to dismiss the discrepancies between the polls the vote tallies.
I really really hope that I have become too cynical and that I will be soundly proven to be a conspiracy theory wacko by morning but comments that have been coming from the McCain camp of late arouse my deepest fears about American democracy.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
I apologize, eljay. In most places, it seems to really be a matter of resources, either ballots, ballot readers, or poll workers.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
quote:Originally posted by kmbboots: Where I voted, if there were people who had trouble standing in line, the poll worker would let the voter sit up near the front of the line until it was that person's turn to vote. When the line "caught up" to where the voter would have been standing.
That's how they were handling it where I voted too.
Posted by Paul Goldner (Member # 1910) on :
Rabbit- I'm a long time red sox fan, so its hard for me to shake the fear that something will go wrong at the very end. I have this deep nervousness that somehow PA, VA, and CO will go to mccain, despite at least 6 weeks in each state since the last time mccain had a poll that showed him in the lead.
Posted by advice for robots (Member # 2544) on :
I showed up at about 8:30 and had no wait whatsoever. I was surprised. I hope voting picks up throughout the day here in ID.
Posted by katharina (Member # 827) on :
I showed up at 5:30 for the polls to open at 6:00, and there was already a line. By the time the polls opened, the line was three blocks long.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
So much for plan A. The 45-60 minutes line stretching down the block I could have dealt with. Not finding any parking for blocks around was more of a problem. Plan B was to vote provisionally at the polling place upstairs from where I work, but that seems to mean I can't vote on any city measures (since I work in West Hollywood, not L.A. proper). So I guess it's plan C -- vote after work.
At least the polls don't close until 8.
Posted by kmbboots (Member # 8576) on :
I wonder how my sister is doing. She is an election judge in WI.
Posted by Chris Bridges (Member # 1138) on :
Walked in with Teres, got her signed in (I voted absentee), she voted, we left. Maybe 10 minutes, including getting in and out of the car.
Line moved quickly, there were three times the voting station I'm used to seeing there, and they even gave me an "I Voted" sticker when I asked for one
However, this was around 10:30 or so. My housemate voted on the way home from work early this morning and had a 45-minute wait.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Chris, I'm curious as to why you voted absentee and then actually went to the polls on election day?
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
To keep his wife company?
Posted by sndrake (Member # 4941) on :
quote:sndrake, one of the people behind me in line asked about accessible voting, as she was planning on coming back later with her father, who uses a wheelchair. The line outside the polling place was quite long and parts of it were on a steep hill. The initial answer was that he'd have to wait in line anyway, which she didn't accept, as at the old polling place they had always brought him to the front of the line. She talked to a couple more people, and they agreed that when she brought him she could pull up by the door and they would bring the ballot out for him to vote, and she would walk it in and feed it into the machine. She also pointed out to them that there was a woman in line on the hill with a cane who didn't look too stable, and they went over the her and offered to bring her to the head of the line to vote.
Eljay,
here in this particular county in NYS (don't know about the rest of the state), they've put a lot of investment into the technology. Diane has actually been involved in training people with disabilities how to use it.
It looks like they didn't spend enough time training the poll workers, testing the technology, or briefing workers on back-up plans.
The workers are paid for the time they do today (a pretty nominal fee), but I believe the rest of what they do is totally voluntary. In the case of what we're seeing with what happened to Diane and other stories - it's more a matter of resources. In this case, though, the issue is spending more time and money on training people and testing the technology.
I don't particularly blame the people who were working there this morning. They were unhappy things weren't working -- they really want people to be able to come in and vote - and not go through these hassles.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by rivka: To keep his wife company?
The question wasn't why he went to the poll even though he cast an absentee ballot. It was why did he cast the absentee ballot in the first place.
Posted by blindsay (Member # 11787) on :
I think they should just pass out Scantron sheets to vote on. Works for schools and they are easy to fill out....
Oh wait a second. You have to use a #2 pencil.
Ok I give up, there is no perfect way to vote.
Posted by sndrake (Member # 4941) on :
Almost forgot. One other option that was *supposed* to be available. One of the voting booths was allegedly one that could be lowered so that Diane or other wheelchair users could use it.
No one at the polling place knew how to lower it or could figure it out. Training again.
Posted by Tarrsk (Member # 332) on :
Our polling location used Scantron sheets that read Sharpie marker, instead of #2 pencil. I thought it worked quite well - you get the convenience of electronically recorded voting while still maintaining a paper trail.
Posted by Darth_Mauve (Member # 4709) on :
I'm voting this afternoon, but I've talked to several people here in Missouri and here is my unofficial poll.
If you arrived before 6am (opening time) there were long waits. Some waited up to 3 hours, as the "before work" or the "beat the crowd" crowd waited.
The actual voting went smooth and quick.
Lines diminished after that first rush, but as of 10am, there were still lines in front of many places I passed.
Waiting in line was pleasant. We are having unseasonably perfect weather today (Sunny and high 70's as the temp).
People in the line were very pleasant, and neighbors got to know neighbors they hadn't talked to in a while.
And nobody in line mentioned politics.
Posted by Lisa (Member # 8384) on :
Your link is addressed to http://http// Posted by Mike (Member # 55) on :
In at 10:05, out at 10:15. Lines were short. There was a shortage of booths, so some people were filling out their ballots on desks and out in the courtyard. The single counting machine kept up easily, despite having to be emptied just when I arrived.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Those points about the inadequacy of exit polling are ridiculous. In the Utah Colleges Exit Poll we are explicitly not permitted to help people fill out their survey, unless they are blind and require us to read it for them.
Cluster sampling is a perfectly acceptable way to glean statistics. Many studies regarding economics and education are done with cluster sampling. It does not matter if those willing to help out in exit polls are more Democratic or otherwise, party affiliation does nothing to affect the outcome of a solidly constructed poll.
Why does it matter if the poll taker cannot always get EXACTLY to the Nth voter? Sometimes the Nth voter refuses to take the survey, and we just move on to the next Nth voter. Once in a while getting the Nth + 1 voter does nothing to effect the randomness of a survey unless the pollster deliberately avoids the Nth.
Utah Colleges Exit Poll is going to be at it's designated polling places from the time polls open until they actually close. The results of our study are not leaked or published until polls are closed.
It bothers me that McCain is taking this cheap shot at exit pollers as other tactics actually influence the vote such as, "voter registration check" phone calls which are explicitly harmful. Exit polling is critical for solid research regarding what sorts of people are voting in this election and who they are voting for.
Contrary to my fears in my disenfranchised thread I managed to eek out my vote by showing up just as the polls opened. I made it to work without a minute to spare and now I am off to do some exit polling.
I'll post my experience at my polling station when I get home.
Also Mrs. BB was super proud to have voted in her first election, I'm very proud of her for carefully considering how she wanted to vote.
Posted by Orincoro (Member # 8854) on :
quote:Originally posted by Paul Goldner: I apologize, eljay. In most places, it seems to really be a matter of resources, either ballots, ballot readers, or poll workers.
It is utterly unacceptable to me if it is as you say, that certain states are simply not equipped to process the votes of all their voters. Given years to prepare for this one day, I am saddenned that there continue to be such problems. I realize there will always be problems, but honestly, if I were a local official, I would have been running around for months with the worst-case-scenario mindset.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by aspectre: Your link is addressed to http://http//
She's trolling.
Posted by sndrake (Member # 4941) on :
quote:If “Dandy” Don Meredith were to call the election results instead of CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, then he’d be singing his signature “Turn out the lights, the party’s over” for John McCain. At least in the towns of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location, New Hampshire.
The two little towns in the northern part of the Granite State have a tradition of voting at midnight and then releasing their results shortly thereafter.
The verdict this year? Obama in a landslide.
The results
Between the two towns, Obama received 32 votes while John McCain tallied 16 votes. Even Ron Paul got some action with two people voting for him.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit:
quote:Originally posted by aspectre: Your link is addressed to http://http//
She's trolling.
With that? Wow, her game is really off today.
Posted by Teshi (Member # 5024) on :
I find it odd that you clearly need more people and yet you have all this exit polling going on, using up great numbers of potential volunteers for the actual polling.
In Canada, there is no exit polling (at least not as a matter of course), there are up to 500 ballots per polling station, you can vote in about 30 seconds and everybody just waits for the official count to hear the results.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
So I voted two weeks ago, which meant I did not get my "I voted" sticker.
Today at my mom's group, I found out that local businesses are offering freebies to votres -- Free coffee from Starbuck's, free sandwich from Chick-Fil-A, free ice cream from Ben and Jerry's,e tc. That's not fair! I voted. I just don't have my sticker.
Posted by kmbboots (Member # 8576) on :
I got a sticker when I voted last week. I bet that you could tell the Starbucks people that you voted early and it would be okay.
Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Those points about the inadequacy of exit polling are ridiculous...Why does it matter if the poll taker cannot always get EXACTLY to the Nth voter? Sometimes the Nth voter refuses to take the survey, and we just move on to the next Nth voter. Once in a while getting the Nth + 1 voter does nothing to effect the randomness of a survey unless the pollster deliberately avoids the Nth.
Because exit polls are voluntary, they are susceptible to self-selection bias. When the Nth voter refuses to speak with you, it might be for reasons independent of party affiliation or how they voted, or it might not be. If it isn't, then exit polls need to account for the selection bias (here's the best way, if you know the sampling distribution).
The results of 2004 indicate either that that election was rigged (see Rabbit's pessimistic assertion above) or that exit polls exhibited a significant uncorrected selection bias (which I find much more likely). One hypothesis is that since exit pollsters are disproportionately college students, and college students as a whole are recognized as being predominantly Democrats, Republicans would deliberately avoid taking the exit polls, resulting in a statistically significant non-uniformity in the poll sampling distribution.
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Starbucks at least has changed it to a free coffee (brewed only) for everyone, because it's been pointed out that it's illegal to offer gifts as incentive for voting.
----
Teshi, a lot of the exit polling isn't done by volunteers, it's paid people who work for one of the polling companies. Some of it is volunteers, of course, like the one BlackBlade is taking part in. But not all.
At my polling station I was the 311th voter two hours after the polls opened. 500 ballots wouldn't cut it by far. And most of the poll workers are paid, not volunteers.
Posted by Jhai (Member # 5633) on :
quote:Originally posted by Christine: So I voted two weeks ago, which meant I did not get my "I voted" sticker.
Today at my mom's group, I found out that local businesses are offering freebies to votres -- Free coffee from Starbuck's, free sandwich from Chick-Fil-A, free ice cream from Ben and Jerry's,e tc. That's not fair! I voted. I just don't have my sticker.
Actually, none of them can require a voting sticker to give out the free stuff. Otherwise you run into problems with the law, since you aren't suppose to give out rewards for voting.
If you go in and ask for the free whatever, they have to give it to you. If you in & ask nicely, mentioning that you voted earlier by absentee, I'm sure they'd give it to you willingly.
Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
quote:Originally posted by Christine: Today at my mom's group, I found out that local businesses are offering freebies to votres -- Free coffee from Starbuck's, free sandwich from Chick-Fil-A, free ice cream from Ben and Jerry's,e tc. That's not fair!
Not only is it not fair, it's also not legal. (Also, according to the statement from Starbucks at the end of the linked article, to insure legality of the promotion anyone can get a free tall coffee today, whether they voted or not).
Posted by Bokonon (Member # 480) on :
Speaking of illegal actions, I was mildly peeved at a lady who came out of voting and walked down the entire line waiting to vote with a No on 1 sign (Question 1 would repeal the state income tax). Now, I support that position, but there's a reason why all the signholders are at least 100 feet from the polling place entrance lady.
-Bok
Posted by Orincoro (Member # 8854) on :
quote:Originally posted by Christine: So I voted two weeks ago, which meant I did not get my "I voted" sticker.
Today at my mom's group, I found out that local businesses are offering freebies to votres -- Free coffee from Starbuck's, free sandwich from Chick-Fil-A, free ice cream from Ben and Jerry's,e tc. That's not fair! I voted. I just don't have my sticker.
I'm hearing that Starbucks is offering free cups of coffee to voters.
There is a starbucks a few blocks from my apartment at Namaste Republiki (I can't spell in Czech)... I wonder if they'd give me a free cup.
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
quote:Originally posted by ElJay: ...
At my polling station I was the 311th voter two hours after the polls opened. 500 ballots wouldn't cut it by far.
I think that might just be a terminology thing.
quote: Canada is divided into 308 separate federal ridings or electoral districts. Each district elects one member of Parliament as a representative.
The districts are divided into polling divisions, or “polls.” Stationary polling sites usually contain several polls.
Each district has a number of polling stations. For the June 2004 election there were more than 18,000 polling locations in Canada, and 59,000 individual polls. Elections Canada ensures that nobody is forced to travel more than 30 kilometres to vote.
Mobile polling stations collect the votes of elderly or disabled persons living in health-care institutions. These stations are set up in districts having two or more health care institutions and travel between them to collect ballots.
Doing the math, thats roughly 500 voters per poll and 1667 voters per location.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
We had nearly two dozen voting stands at our polling place, in Troy, Michigan. Actually, they set up four more cardboard dividers on round tables with chairs, so I got to sit down while I filled out my ballot. We use basically a black magic marker to fill in an oval by the selected name on the cardboard ballot. Then all the ballots are fed into one optical scanner. It is fast and cheap, and has worked well for us for the six years or so we have been using it. A technician stands right there watching the readout to make sure each ballot was fed in and processed properly. The ballots remain stacked inside the machine, until emptied. So there is a paper trail.
Two precincts share our polling place, and the line for our precinct was much shorter. It was hard not to gloat while we passed by the long line for the other precinct.
Posted by Olivet (Member # 1104) on :
I heard a woman on Rush Limbaugh advocating that Republicans say they voted for Obama in the exit polls, to fool later voters into staying home. He said he had fantasized about the same thing.
I guess that is the sort of attitude that irks me about the quality of political discourse in the USA of late. My Beloved and I walked to our polling place a bit ago (no line, middle of the day) and voted for different candidates in some races. Earlier this week, we both had people "playfully" suggest ways in which we could keep the other from voting.
Excuse me for pointing this out, but that's not the way we should be acting. Just because someone disagrees with you, it doesn't make them misguided, or stupid, or dangerous. If we all agreed with each other, we wouldn't be people, much less Americans.
I, for one, am moved by the sheer involvement of people in this process. Whoever wins, I will be proud to be an American tomorrow, because of the things I have seen today.
It's a tad old, but I loves me some Craig Ferguson.
Posted by Orincoro (Member # 8854) on :
I "playfully" suggested you "cut" his "brakes."
I was joking though... I hope you realize. Being ironic. Sorry if it was over the line.
Posted by Olivet (Member # 1104) on :
Oh, dude, I wasn't thinking of you. I know my poor mother-in-law wanted him to show me bullet point lists on Neil Boortz and stuff. She's convinced that the only way Obama could win is by voter fraud, because of the ACORN nonsense.
It reminds me of one of my earliest political memories. 1976, my mom was on the phone. I was sitting on the floor playing with my dolls. She was telling someone that if Jimmy Carter was elected, the world would come to an end. Jesus would call the faithful home and the four horsemen of the Apocalypse would ride across the land. She was laughing, talking to her democrat mother, IIRC, but I was very small and not great at reading body language or expressions, and it kind of scared me.
Apparently, we survived. *shrug*
It's not the last five... endings? of Lord of the Rings, good versus evil. It's an election. That's all I'm saying.
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
Wow, oil is up $7 to $70 a barrel, the Canadian dollar is up 2 cents to 87 cents (it fell to a low of 77 cents a couple weeks ago), and both the Canadian and US stock market are up roughly 4%.
Yay for elections I guess.
Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
"My Beloved"
Whenever I hear the word 'beloved' the image of Sethe killing her daughter with a saw comes to mind.
Stupid book!
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
I think you mean "Beloved".
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
quote:Originally posted by ElJay: Starbucks at least has changed it to a free coffee (brewed only) for everyone, because it's been pointed out that it's illegal to offer gifts as incentive for voting.
Duh! Yeah, I'm hearing now that these places are just giving away freebies. I think I'm going out for ice cream tonight! Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
I was quoting Olivet in saying "My Beloved". Sorry for the confusion.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Olivet -
I just saw a thing on CNN. There was a text message apparently sent out to thousands of Obama supporters in multiple states that told them due to long lines, they were being asked to vote on Wednesday instead. I hope no one would fall for that, but sheesh.
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: We had nearly two dozen voting stands at our polling place, in Troy, Michigan. Actually, they set up four more cardboard dividers on round tables with chairs, so I got to sit down while I filled out my ballot. We use basically a black magic marker to fill in an oval by the selected name on the cardboard ballot. Then all the ballots are fed into one optical scanner. It is fast and cheap, and has worked well for us for the six years or so we have been using it. A technician stands right there watching the readout to make sure each ballot was fed in and processed properly. The ballots remain stacked inside the machine, until emptied. So there is a paper trail.
Two precincts share our polling place, and the line for our precinct was much shorter. It was hard not to gloat while we passed by the long line for the other precinct.
I didn't realize you lived so close! Do you ever eat at Champps on Big Beaver?
I like the optical scan ballots personally. They have a paper trail and they are quick and easy to use. My brother caused a backup this morning when he accidentally filled in three bubbles when you were only supposed to pick two candidates. The machine buzzed and spit his ballot back out. It was very amusing. Posted by Lisa (Member # 8384) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit:
quote:Originally posted by aspectre: Your link is addressed to http://http//
She's trolling.
With that? Wow, her game is really off today.
<shrug> I'm not feeling well.
Posted by Olivet (Member # 1104) on :
I read the things they put before me, and explained why some of them were spurious, some seemed like coded messages meant to play on racial fears, and others were absolute worst-case scenarios of the future in an Obama presidency.
Then I smiled and said I refused to cast a vote from a place of fear. I didn't do it in the last election, or the one before that, or the one before that, and gosh darn it, I'm not starting now.
I'd rather vote from a position of hope, even if it turns out to be a misplaced hope.
Posted by Juxtapose (Member # 8837) on :
I neeeed ressuuuuuuuuulllts!
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
Well, Obama is winning in Indiana but losing in KY. Hows that? Oh and somehow, Obama is leading in Maine, 2-1. I have no idea how that is possible.
Edited: Nevermind, he is now losing in Indiana.
Posted by Juxtapose (Member # 8837) on :
First blood.
McCain projected to win Kentucky for 8.
Obama projected to win Vermont for 3.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
(I apologize if someone already posted this. I don't have time to catch up on this thread right now, but this was too beautiful not to share, regardless of which candidate you support. It's from an email I just received, and originally from TPM.)
quote:My polling place is at the fairgrounds in Southern Maryland, about 40 minutes from Washington, D.C. This used to be tobacco country, but is slowly being developed, or other crops are grown. We waited until 10:00 to vote, to avoid the lines. When we got there a 97-year-old Black man was being wheeled out of the polls in his wheelchair. It was the first time he had ever voted in his life. When he came outside he asked if anyone could give him an Obama button. There were none left at the Democrat's booth so I gave him mine. He was so proud and I started crying. He looked at me and said, "why are you crying? this is a day for glory." I am still crying.
NBC is calling South Carolina for McCain...
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Wow, MSNBC just called most of the NE for Obama.
Including Pennsylvania!!
edit at 8:30: ABC calls Penn too. CBS, Fox and CNN haven't yet, I think.
8:44: Now CNN is calling Penn Obama.
[ November 04, 2008, 08:44 PM: Message edited by: Morbo ]
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
Is it just me, or does all of this early "calling" by the major news sources before any or most actual numbers come in actually take some of the fun out of election night?
Posted by Strider (Member # 1807) on :
i'm always a bit baffled when they call a state with 0% of the vote in.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
What, Godric, you want to wait for the dusty deliberations of the Electoral College? Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
Heh... CNN has Maine for Obama. Current actual vote count: Obama 2, McCain 1.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
It's all exit polls Strider. Most places will call a state if the exit polls show one person dramatically ahead of the other. If it's within 5-10 points they'll wait for some results to come in before they call it one way or the other.
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
Morbo, no, I just wish they'd wait 'til I got home from work... It's like missing the first 3 innings of Game 7 of the World Series.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Also they use key bellwether districts in key counties to call states. So if you can call a few of those districts, and your voting statistical model is good, you can predict the whole state.
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
Well, I'm going home... Here's my prediction: I'll have more fun and probably gain as much insight into today's election catching up with this thread in the morning than I will watching the coverage tonight.
Happy election evening!
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
Hmm.... 100,000 votes difference, can Obama catch up? MSNBC has it as "Too Close to call" but quite the difference... /insecure.
Posted by King of Men (Member # 6684) on :
Big precincts like cities, where Obama is strong, take the longest to count and therefore report last. So early Republican leads, even if large, can be caught up. Hence TCTC.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
In Kentucky, Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford is running neck and neck with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell with 50% of the precincts reporting. KY, GA and MS were the longshot states where the Democrats were hoping to get a ninth seat and win a supermajority, but everyone assumed that Georgia would be the best place for a pickup (especially given how AWFUL a candidate Lunsford is).
And Obama just got Pennsylvania called for him. As far as I can tell, that's the ballgame for McCain. Obama is going to win every other Kerry state plus IA, NM and CO. I think that's it. McCain NEEDED Pennsylvania. Any other pathway to victory is exotic and EXTREMELY unlikely.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Which state Blayne?
Keith Olbermann is really being dissed tonight. MSNBC is ignoring him.
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
VA Virginia.
I don't think their ignoring Olbermann, they're all ignoring each other.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Blech, MSNBC put on that hack Delay. Time for a snack break.
Delay said Dems would double the minimum wage in 6 mos. What a liar.
Posted by Vadon (Member # 4561) on :
quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: Hmm.... 100,000 votes difference, can Obama catch up? MSNBC has it as "Too Close to call" but quite the difference... /insecure.
Easily.
Northern Virginia has barely started reporting, and I'm pretty sure that Richmond will go Obama and it hasn't started counting at all.
Edit: Well, they hadn't started counting Richmond as I wrote this, but it is closing a lot of the gap. + 40000 to Obama just from that.
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
quote:And Obama just got Pennsylvania called for him. As far as I can tell, that's the ballgame for McCain. Obama is going to win every other Kerry state plus IA, NM and CO. I think that's it. McCain NEEDED Pennsylvania. Any other pathway to victory is exotic and EXTREMELY unlikely.
Agreed. If either Ohio or Florida fall to Obama, both states he is up in, the game is over. They could announce as early as 9ct or 930ct.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
MSNBC: Ohio to Obama. edit: CBS calls Ohio too!
WOO-HOO!! Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
Barack Obama is the next president of the US. And it looks like it is alot bigger a win than I thought.
Posted by Threads (Member # 10863) on :
Looks like McConnell will end up winning in Kentucky.
Posted by Threads (Member # 10863) on :
Fox News now projects Obama wins Ohio.
Posted by jh (Member # 7727) on :
Projections are fine, but there is no way I will be 100% confident of the outcome until all votes in all states are counted and any lawsuits brought are settled.
Posted by Sterling (Member # 8096) on :
CNN has New Mexico going for Obama, but they report him having 37% of the vote. (And their exit polls say he has 53% of the male vote, and 58% of the female... I think someone is getting punchy trying to keep up with incoming data.)
Posted by Tinros (Member # 8328) on :
quote:Originally posted by jh: Projections are fine, but there is no way I will be 100% confident of the outcome until all votes in all states are counted and any lawsuits brought are settled.
QFT. Only 20% of the precincts in Ohio are reporting right now. Let's wait until it hits 100% before we start celebrating, mmkay?
Posted by Threads (Member # 10863) on :
Obama is within 7000 votes in Indiana (out of over 2 million cast so far).
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
OBAMA IN THE LEAD OF VIRGINIA!
Posted by Threads (Member # 10863) on :
As long as he picks up Washington and California he will win even if he loses all other states that haven't been called so far.
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
Iowa has gone to Obama, with Kansas and Utah to McCain.
Edited: There are 73 electoral votes in the west from CA, OR, and WA and Obama has won 202 electoral votes already. If he wins those three states in the west, which he is almost surely to win, then he is the president even if he does not win NV, CO, FL, Virginia, NC, Indiana, and MO.
Posted by Unicorn Feelings (Member # 11784) on :
I think Obama has California. Just a hunch. Though 0% polls reporting atm. So don't bet the house on it. Maybe just the garage and the backyard + the kitchen.
Posted by Tara (Member # 10030) on :
Obama won Ohio and Florida, it's basically over.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Who has called Florida? I can't find anybody calling it yet.
But yeah, it's over. Florida is not even necessary for Obama at this point.
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
Apparantly Daily Show will have a live showing with Steven Colbert and Stewart doing a live thing about the election but I can't figure out how to watch it online.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
quote:Originally posted by Unicorn Feelings: I think Obama has California. Just a hunch. Though 0% polls reporting atm.
The polls don't even close here for another 30 minutes!
I voted. I'm glad I didn't try to deal with that awful line and no-parking-zoo this morning. The line 45 minutes ago was much better.
There was one person in front of me. Including parking and walking to and from my car, the whole thing took 15 minutes. Maybe 10.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
I haven't seen anyone call Florida. I'm checking CNN, NBC, BBC, and Fox....
Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
NYT has 80% reporting with 50.9% Obama and 48.4% McCain.
Posted by Unicorn Feelings (Member # 11784) on :
Wow. NC and Virginia are so close.
Posted by Vadon (Member # 4561) on :
Obama has fallen behind in NC, it looks like the only way he can take that is with the rest of Mecklenburg being counted.
(I worry about NC because my guess was 353 to Obama. Another possibility to get my guess is if Obama takes MO, MT, and one electoral vote from Nebraska.)
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
The BBC?? Socialist.
Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
And Indiana.
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
Nobody has called the race in Florida because it is too close to call, but in about 10 minutes, if you are an Obama fan, I would be near a television. At 10 ct, there is going to be a big announcement, I have a feeling.
Posted by Tstorm (Member # 1871) on :
I voted this morning at 7AM. There were four lines, one for each precinct/ward. Each line was short and the voting went smoothly. The poll workers were organized and efficient. I heard there was quite a line at around 8AM. This is a small town, though.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Fox just projected Virginia for Obama. Posted by Launchywiggin (Member # 9116) on :
Yeah Virginia. I turned you blue.
Then again--are absentee votes even counted in this hullabaloo today? I sent it in about a month ago.
Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
I like Colbert and Stewart's matching ties.
Posted by Unicorn Feelings (Member # 11784) on :
I am going to go ahead and call Utah for Mccain. 0% of the polls reporting atm. Don't bet the house on it. er, yeah, this one is a sure thing, bet the house and the vacation pad.
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
BARACK OBAMA WINS! 284!!!!!
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
Cnn just called it for Obama. He is the next president of the US!!
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
NBC Called their winner -- Obama! Posted by Sean Monahan (Member # 9334) on :
CNN has just called Obama with 297.
Posted by jh (Member # 7727) on :
Well, ABC has projected Barack Obama is the 44th President of the United States.
Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
Stewart just called it for Obama.
Posted by Katarain (Member # 6659) on :
It's a lot of fun watching the people celebrate on all of the news channels. Posted by jh (Member # 7727) on :
I still want to see who wins the states which have not been called, but this is a very exciting moment.
Posted by Elmer's Glue (Member # 9313) on :
Well that didn't take very long.
Posted by Darth_Mauve (Member # 4709) on :
Perfect, just in time for The Daily Show.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
NBC Called their winner -- Obama! Posted by Elmer's Glue (Member # 9313) on :
Someone already told us tha- hey wait a minute...
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
quote:Originally posted by The White Whale: Stewart just called it for Obama.
Gah! Where did you find his live broadcast!?
Posted by Tara (Member # 10030) on :
I am so looking forward to the next World Watch... Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
Television.
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: BARACK OBAMA WINS! 297!!!!!
I WAS FIRST! I WAS FIRST!
Posted by Teshi (Member # 5024) on :
Posted by Katarain (Member # 6659) on :
Is it just me, or is anyone else a little uncomfortable with all of the emphasis he's putting on Obama's race? *shrug* Looks like he's moved on from that now. I'm glad he's calling for unity.
(He being McCain)
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
I really don't sympathize with that crown.
"No Hussein"?
Posted by Saephon (Member # 9623) on :
That was a pretty good speech by McCain just now. When you take away all the campaigning and the differences in policy, I really respect the man. He's got a good heart.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
quote:Originally posted by Katarain: Is it just me, or is anyone else a little uncomfortable with all of the emphasis he's putting on Obama's race? *shrug* Looks like he's moved on from that now. I'm glad he's calling for unity.
(He being McCain)
Yeah, I was thinking that for a minute, but now he's back. And he's being a gentleman, but I knew he would be. Posted by Unicorn Feelings (Member # 11784) on :
Nickelodeon just called it for Obama!
Posted by steven (Member # 8099) on :
Home Shopping Network just called it for Obama!
Posted by Elmer's Glue (Member # 9313) on :
Well Nickelodeon as your news source just makes sense.
Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
I like McCain's speech.
Posted by mimsies (Member # 7418) on :
Wow
just...
Wow
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
Agreed, TWW.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Newsbusters.org just called it for McCain!
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
quote:Originally posted by Christine: Which leads to my serious prediction, electoral college map aside:
Winner announced by 10 p.m. central time.
I called it on the nose! Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
McCain gave a very gracious speech. I can't wait for Obama's speech!
Posted by Unicorn Feelings (Member # 11784) on :
yay!
just
yay!
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
quote:Originally posted by Christine:
quote:Originally posted by Christine: Winner announced by 10 p.m. central time.
I called it on the nose!
Natch. What did you think was going to happen as soon as California's polls closed? Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
My local news just says Obama's going to speak at around midnight.
I'm sleepy and have a test tomorrow! I should go to sleep!
Coffee is my best friend.
Posted by Saephon (Member # 9623) on :
I'm eating a celebratory frozen pizza while I wait for Obama's speech. Mmmmmm.
Posted by dean (Member # 167) on :
I know, I have a long day tomorrow, but I want to hear the speech!
Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
He's about to speak.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
If my dad wins a political [edit: office], can I have a puppy too?
[ November 05, 2008, 12:29 AM: Message edited by: rivka ]
Posted by Shan (Member # 4550) on :
Absolutely.
How come you beat me to my puppy comment?
*sniff*
***************
Uh-oh -- sounds like he's asking us to roll-up our shirt sleeves and get to work . . . service, sacrifice and spirit.
Resolve.
Look after each other.
Rise and fall as one nation. (Did I miss something there?)
Resist temptation . . . and immaturity in politics. Did he just say that???? Immaturity? In politics??? Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Heh, the puppy thing was funny. I missed most of McCain's speech, I'll have to catch that later.
On the bright side, I won $20 in the electoral college pool at the bar I was at.
quote:Originally posted by Katarain: It's a lot of fun watching the people celebrate on all of the news channels.
One of the guys at the bar I was at, when they showed all the different people celebrating at the different places yelled out "It's like the end of Star Wars! Show the Wookies celebrating for Obama." It was pretty funny. I can already see the Youtube video.
Posted by The White Whale (Member # 6594) on :
I like Obama's speech.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
I love listening to Obama speak. Posted by Teshi (Member # 5024) on :
Obama is great.
McCain, however, gave an excellent concession speech. Humble, toned down, when he quieted the boos of the crowd he was doing it genuinely. It was a good speech.
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
Wooohooo! Tonight is a good night.
Posted by Surveyor 2 (Member # 347) on :
Congratulations from Europe. I think it was a good and wise choice.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
Good night!
Posted by Troubadour (Member # 83) on :
Congrats, America, we Aussies think you made a good choice.
Posted by advice for robots (Member # 2544) on :
Wow.
I'm excited.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Great speech. Lots of Lincoln and MLK cribbing, which is fine with me.
After the celebration dies down, we'll start hearing in the next three or four days about his cabinet. I think tomorrow we'll hear him announce his Chief of Staff, arguably the most important appointment when it comes to day to day White House operations.
By the end of the week I think it's likely you'll hear him make some sort of announcement on SecTreas as well. SecState and SecDef will come next week. He won't waste any time in announcing the Big 4 (SecState, SecTreas, SecDef and AG). There are a lot of names being bandied about for all positions. There's a strong possibility that Robert Gates, the current SecDef, will be asked to stay on for maybe a year until Obama gets a handle on the Middle East situation and appoints someone else to the post. I really don't know who he has in mind for some of the other spots (possible that Paulson will also be asked to stay on, but less likely than Gates), but he might choose the guy in charge of the NY Reserve, I can't remember his name, and I think Sam Powers is a strong candidate for National Security Advisor. Rahm Emmanuel is being talked about as a Chief of Staff candidate.
For AG, Michigan's own Jennifer Granholm is being talked about seriously. She was Michigan's AG before being elected governor. Too bad she can't run for president.
Can anyone believe that Indiana still hasn't been called? Obama is currently ahead in three of the last four states: Monatan, North Carolina, and Indiana. If he takes them all, he'll come in just shy of the 370 official landslide, but I don't care about what's official. This is a stunning electoral college victory across the map that I will result in a lot of power in Washington, as Congress realizes this amounts to a mandate.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: There's a strong possibility that Robert Gates, the current SecDef, will be asked to stay on for maybe a year until Obama gets a handle on the Middle East situation and appoints someone else to the post.
You really think so? It could be a good idea, I respect Gates. I was pleasantly surprised to like Rummy's replacement.
Posted by Elmer's Glue (Member # 9313) on :
So when will he be inaugurated?
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
I believe Jan 20 is inauguration day.
Posted by Epictetus (Member # 6235) on :
Wow. Just wow. I know in the back of my head I should be going to bed, but I'm too excited.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Yep.
But he'll start to exert influence almost immediately. He'll meet with Bush quickly to discuss a host of matters, not the least of which is an upcoming economic summit that Bush wants his input on. He also has to form a government from scratch over the next couple months. He needs to be ready to go on day one.
Here's a question no one has asked: Two senators were just taken off the table in Deleware and Illinois. Who will the Democratic governors of those two states appoint to replace them? There were strong rumors that Biden's son Bo would get the nod in Deleware, and if that's the case, it'd be a coup for his political career. He's the state's AG I think, and a reserve officer in the army. Being appointed Senator might be a nice stepping stone to the Governor's mansion and then a run at the White House of his own in 12 or 16 years. The problem there is the fact that he was supposed to be deployed to Iraq (even though he was in Chicago at Grant Park tonight). Many felt that would stop the governor from offering him the spot, but I don't know. He's certainly qualified. Keep your eye out for names for those spots.
quote:Originally posted by Morbo: You really think so? It could be a good idea, I respect Gates. I was pleasantly surprised to like Rummy's replacement.
Obama likes Gates. Actually most Democrats like Gates. He's a breath of fresh air after Rumsfeld. The two of them have met several times and had productive meetings. He knows the issues, he's in the midst of a military in transition to a 21st century fighting force, and the two already have a working rapport. Keeping him on makes sense in that sense, and also because keeping on a Bush appointment has strong political appeal as far as bipartisanship goes. He won't stay on for the full term I don't think, but he'd be an excellent interim choice that I think would earn a unanimous confirmation in the Senate.
Posted by Vadon (Member # 4561) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: Can anyone believe that Indiana still hasn't been called? Obama is currently ahead in three of the last four states: Monatan, North Carolina, and Indiana. If he takes them all, he'll come in just shy of the 370 official landslide, but I don't care about what's official. This is a stunning electoral college victory across the map that I will result in a lot of power in Washington, as Congress realizes this amounts to a mandate.
I think that he could hit the 370 landslide. Missouri isn't done being counted, and St. Louis isn't done being counted yet, looking at the gap, it may be just enough. I don't know if it's likely, but it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
This is really a vindication of Dean's 50-state strategy. I had my doubts, but Obama's campaign did so well fund-raising that they had the resources to pull it off.
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
The rumors are that Jesse Jackson Jr. will be the appointment for Obama's seat, and I would bet on Bo Biden as well for Delaware Lyrhawn. Those would be two great senators.
I also like Colin Powell for Secretary of State, Gates may hang around for a year, and I would bet on Joe Lieberman coming into Obama's cabinet in some capacity. I don't think, after the general, that Lieberman can go back to the senate because the dems want his head, and I think it would a great move on Obama's part for him to bring him in. I also see Bill Richardson as UN Ambassador or Chairman of the DNC for Dean, the guy from the federal reserve whose name neither of us can remember as Treasury Secretary (with Paulson serving as an advisor for at least a year), and Gates to return as Secdef as well.
Oh and what a speech. Just...wow...
Edited: And his COS will be Rahm Emmanuel from Illinois.
Edited2: Oh and Buffet will serve some role, probably as one of his economic advisers, along with Steve Forbes (republican), and maybe Sam Power in a foreign relations role. One last thing, how about Hillary Clinton for AG? That would be interesting, but I am not sure that she either wants it or that Obama wants to give it to her.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
I agree with your last post, humean, except for Leiberman. Blech. He made his bed with the Republicans, let him lie in it.
Posted by Sterling (Member # 8096) on :
His speech was so gracious and articulate. It was remarkable.
I feel like today, America grew up a little.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
In other news:
Looks like the gay marriage ban will pass in Florida and Arizona. The ban on gay adoption will pass in Arkansas. The ban on gay marrriage in CA is winning but not a lot of the vote is in.
Here in MI, medical marijuana and embryos for stem cell research both passed. In my own district, it looks like Gary Peters will unseat Joe Knollenburg for the US House, turning us blue
Rep. Chris Shays has lost his House seat for the GOP, which means all of New England is now blue. He was the last Republican. North Carolina elected their first female governor ever.
On the senate:
4 Senate seats remain. They need all four to get to 60. It's not going to happen. Alaska is probably a given, so let's say 57 is guaranteed (the rest have all been called). Watch Minnesota and Oregon. As we speak they are both neck and neck. Between 5 and 10 thousand votes. Watch Georgia too. Martin isn't going to overtake Chambliss, but if he can knock him down to 49%, he'll get a runoff in December, and Obama will turn every resource as his disposal to the race. It'd be a sight to see.
Dems will probably net pickup 15-20 seats in the House. It won't be the 30+ turnover that they got in 2006 or that some were suspecting, but it'll pad their lead, and more importantly, it'll lessen the power of the Blue Dogs to force the Dems to center right or center left on a lot of issues.
Posted by Sterling (Member # 8096) on :
Last I saw California it was 52-48 against Prop 8; this is a switch. Hopefully it won't be the last of the night.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Humean -
Giving Lieberman a place in the Administration would be a fantastic move for a lot of reasons. It'd give the governor a chance to appoint an out and out Democrat to replace him, which may be more important than one might think with Democrats looking for his head and Republicans looking to woo him into a party switch. It would also look nice and bi-partisan, and he's actually qualified for several positions, so why not? Many may view it as rewarding treachery, but it's a smart political tactic. Frankly, it's something Lincoln would have done.
I think the guy from the Reserve is Tim Geithner? Gathner?
Hillary as AG? Her name has been seriously bandied about as a possible SCOTUS Justice for Obama's first appointment. Jennifer Granholm has also been discussed in such a capacity. She has demured whenever asked about either position. I think Obama would be okay with offering such a place to her, but I think she'll remain in the Senate and look to replace Reid when he eventually retires. Let me say this though; if she DOES take the AG spot, she's running for president in 8 years. I think she'd be crazy to do so. Obama isn't just the leader of the Democratic party now, he's the harbinger of a new brand of Democrat, or at least a new generation. She's part of the old generation. After Obama will be a long line of younger 40 something Democrats that will want their shot. Biden and Clinton will fade away into the history books.
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
quote:Originally posted by Sterling: Last I saw California it was 52-48 against Prop 8; this is a switch. Hopefully it won't be the last of the night.
I've been watching that all night and I've never seen it switch to the no side. It's been pretty consistently 53/47 in favor of "yes".
Posted by MightyCow (Member # 9253) on :
Such a bittersweet night so far. Awesome for Obama, but looking sad for gay rights in CA.
Posted by Elmer's Glue (Member # 9313) on :
Oh, like there are any gay people in CA anyway...
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
quote:I think Obama would be okay with offering such a place to her, but I think she'll remain in the Senate and look to replace Reid when he eventually retires.
I thought about that too, but it won't happen. When the Republicans talked about Reid/Pelosi, that was a real drag on the Democrats in some ways, and so, replacing that with Clinton/Pelosi just makes it worse. Obama knows that, as do the democrats who, by the way, don't even like Hillary in the senate, and who would not put with her as their leader in the senate.
I really don't think her post as the AG means she will run in 2008, I think she saw her chance in this election and didn't get it, and I think she knows that her and Biden will fade, as you said. I don't think she is going to run for President again, though she may seek the governership of NY, but I do think that if she accepts the position of AG, then she will accept a position on the Supreme Court with her position as AG setting that up.
Just a few more names to remember: General Wes Clark, who would make a great Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Claire Mcaskil (sp?) of Missouri, Caroline Kennedy (who I would not be surprised to be tapped to head up something Barack starts), and last but not least, T. Boone Pickens.
Edited: It looks as if Obama will win NC and Indiana and McCain will win Montana and Missouri. That will place the final tally at 364-173. It was close to that big huge landslide, but it was still quite the landslide.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
What spots do you see Caroline Kennedy or Claire McCaskill getting? Besides, who is the governor of Missouri? It might give the seat away. I think she stays in the Senate.
T. Boone Pickens. It's possible. But the only spot I see him taking would be Secretary of Energy. Either that as some sort of energy task force leader, but I think that role would more likely be offered to Al Gore, who despite his protestations, I think would jump at the chance if Obama really offered him a position of real power rather than just an advisory role.
Missouri is down to a thousand vote difference with 99% reporting! In MN, Franken trails Coleman by 3,000 with 10% left.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
The California Registrar-Recorder is currently estimating that 97%! of all registered California voters voted! Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Rivka sweetie, a) it's LA county b) I'm not sure the 97% is a percentage of all registered voters. I think it's some technical voting stat. edit: or maybe it does mean 97% in LA voted. That would be incredible.
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
quote:What spots do you see Caroline Kennedy or Claire McCaskill getting?
Well, the thing about Caroline Kennedy is that she is not a politician, so it might be interesting for Obama to get her to help run a coalition or committee he creates around health care or the environment or some other post in government. From what I know of Obama, he wants to set an example of government service and patriotism, and I think she would make a perfect example for others to follow.
McCaskill is different because I think she became a large part of the campaign for Obama and I think he wants her as part of his government. Matt Blunt in the governor of Missouri but he will not run for a second term and the Democrats won the governorship (Nixon won) of Missouri tonight, so he may have the opportunity to appoint McCaskill to a post that can be filled after Jan. 22.
Indiana has been called for Obama, and he might just take Missouri after all...
ETA: LOL, Missouri is down to a 398 vote difference.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
Pfft. Everyone knows L.A. County is the only part of California that matters. Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Missouri is down to three counties, one of which is the Kansas City suburbs and is heavily Obama. The other two are for McCain. All three have been at least partially reported, and in the case of the Democratic district, has been heavily reported.
He has like 400 votes to make up.
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
Well, Jeff Merkley is in a race with Gordon Smith in Oregon, both are tied with 47% and if the dems win they will pick up the seat. Al Franken and his opponent and Coleman are in the same kind of battle in Minnesota where again the democrats can pick up a seat. Ted Stevens is leading in his bid to retain his senate seat even after he was convicted in his corruption trial. Finally, it appears that Chambliss will beat Martin in Georgia.
More than likely, the democrats will have a 57 or 58 seat majority in the senate, depending on how Franken and Merkley do and just what exactly happens to Lieberman. Think of this too, Obama may have a Jewish problem with some voters, so placing Lieberman in his cabinet might help that, which just gives him another reason to bring him in to his White House.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Last four Senate races, with Dems at 56, Reps at 44.
Remember Martin doesn't need to win, he just needs to keep Chambliss' total under 50% to force a runoff in December.
Posted by Pinky (Member # 9161) on :
Obama is President! What a relief! Finally someone who doesn't perceive the world only in terms of black or white. (Pun not intended. ) And it's good to see that it wasn't a tight race either.
Posted by MightyCow (Member # 9253) on :
quote:Originally posted by Pinky: Obama is President! What a relief! Finally someone who doesn't perceive the world only in terms of black or white. (Pun not intended. ) And it's good to see that it wasn't a tight race either.
Obama has a mandate from Odin.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Good.
The Asgard vote really had me concerned.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
And with that I'm signing off for the night. I've already tarried too long when I should have either been reading or asleep. Keep in mind with whatever Alaska's final numbers are, that there are 10,000 absentee ballots to be counted in the coming days as well, and supposedly they have a heavy Republican tilt. Stevens just might pull this thing off afterall, which I believe would throw the matter to the courts during his sentencing hearing.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
quote:Originally posted by rivka: Pfft. Everyone knows L.A. County is the only part of California that matters.
There's a part of CA that matters?
I mean, when there isn't a shinda going on, that is.....
Posted by Elmer's Glue (Member # 9313) on :
quote:Originally posted by Kwea: There's a part of CA that matters?
Zing!
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
Pfft. I'm supposed to take opinions on California from someone in Florida?
Posted by katharina (Member # 827) on :
My stars.
Franken is losing and Stevens is winning.
Posted by Saephon (Member # 9623) on :
And that, my friends, is why someone from Alaska probably cannot relate to the country as a whole. Call me silly, but I doubt most people would reelect a convicted person unless they had a damn good reason for believing him to be innocent.
Or perhaps if his opponent was absolutely terrible. Not sure which, if either, is the case x_x
Posted by kmbboots (Member # 8576) on :
Lyrhawn,
Thank you for all your work in the election threads. You did great and I appreciate it.
Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
quote:Originally posted by katharina: My stars.
Franken is losing and Stevens is winning.
I'm more excited about Gordon Smith in Oregon. The 2006 election was terrible for moderate Republicans. The more moderates like Smith and Coleman we keep, the happier I'll be. I'd much rather see Saxby Chambliss lose than Smith or Coleman. And the prospect of Al Franken in the Senate, while slightly entertaining, is simultaneously nauseating to me (because his rhetoric is so ascerbic, which is the last thing I think our country needs).
As for Stevens, I'm seriously dumbfounded.
Posted by Sterling (Member # 8096) on :
Yeah, Smith is a pretty reasonable guy. I'm not particularly sorry to see him keep his seat.
Stevens, though... Good gravy, sometimes I hate it when I'm right. Way to pin a bullseye to yourselves for some much-deserved mockery, guys.
Posted by Lisa (Member # 8384) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: Rahm Emmanuel is being talked about as a Chief of Staff candidate.
Really? He's my cousin. Not that I'd vote for him, but that's kind of cool.
Posted by BannaOj (Member # 3206) on :
Ok, on CNN looks like IN went blue. Do we know which way Missouri and North Carolina went yet?
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
quote:Originally posted by kmbboots: Lyrhawn,
Thank you for all your work in the election threads. You did great and I appreciate it.
Seconded. Great job, Lyrhawn.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
Yes, Lyrhawn, I appreciate all your updates and other work on the election threads. Thanks!
In the Georgia Senate race, Saxby Chanbliss appears to be headed for a run-off in Dec., as he can't get 50% + 1.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
quote:Originally posted by BannaOj: Ok, on CNN looks like IN went blue. Do we know which way Missouri and North Carolina went yet?
MO went red. Posted by PSI Teleport (Member # 5545) on :
It's 'cause I was so embarrassed.
Posted by TheBlueShadow (Member # 9718) on :
quote: In the Georgia Senate race, Saxby Chanbliss appears to be headed for a run-off in Dec., as he can't get 50% + 1.
Has that been confirmed? I know they were beginning to or had been counting absentee ballots according to the local news when I left this morning.
Posted by Farmgirl (Member # 5567) on :
I'm getting banner ads at the bottom of this thread still asking me if I think Palin should be V.P. !
LOL
Posted by Farmgirl (Member # 5567) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lisa:
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: Rahm Emmanuel is being talked about as a Chief of Staff candidate.
Really? He's my cousin. Not that I'd vote for him, but that's kind of cool.
[ November 05, 2008, 02:16 PM: Message edited by: Farmgirl ]
Posted by Orincoro (Member # 8854) on :
quote:Originally posted by rivka: Pfft. Everyone knows L.A. County is the only part of California that matters.
YOU ARE DEAD TO ME.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Emmanuel is considered by many to be the reason why Democrats managed such huge pickups in the House in the 2006 midterms and again this year.
He changed the Democrats' entire strategy on choosing candidates to support. Despite being something of a newcomer to Democratic leadership, he more or less combed Republican districts for center to right leaning Democrats that he felt they could work with, groomed them a little, and then sent them all out at the same time with major DCCC backing, causing as we all know a major shift in power in 2006, and a smaller one in 2008. For his duties he was awarded the number three leadership post in the party in the House, and now has been asked to serve as Chief of Staff, which is both a huge responsibility and a great honor.
quote:Originally posted by kmbboots: Lyrhawn,
Thank you for all your work in the election threads. You did great and I appreciate it.
I'm just glad I have Hatrack to come to to sate my inner wonk. You guys were all awesome over the last year. I put a little endcap of some of my thoughts in the Presidential Primary thread a little while ago, but the gist of it: You guys all rocked during the elections this year, and I'm not above suggesting that everyone deserves a little pat on the back for their thoughtfulness, civility and performance of civic duty.
Posted by Orincoro (Member # 8854) on :
Wouldn't it be ironic if Lisa's presence on this board became a scandal of some kind of Obama's new administration? That's just like... you know when your watching a car chase on TV, and you wonder what it would be like if all the sudden the police convoy drove past your house? Yeah, it would be like that. But cooler.
Posted by Orincoro (Member # 8854) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: I'm just glad I have Hatrack to come to to sate my inner wonk. You guys were all awesome over the last year. I put a little endcap of some of my thoughts in the Presidential Primary thread a little while ago, but the gist of it: You guys all rocked during the elections this year, and I'm not above suggesting that everyone deserves a little pat on the back for their thoughtfulness, civility and performance of civic duty.
The thought occurred to me in the last week that you have kind of been steering this whole discussion through, what, a combined 120 pages of open posting? I think it's you that deserves the credit for what got recorded, and what got talked about, and how. What I want to know is, what are you running for, and when?
Posted by DarkKnight (Member # 7536) on :
I will add my heartfelt thanks to you as well, Lyrhawn. You definitely did a lot of work!
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:You guys all rocked during the elections this year, and I'm not above suggesting that everyone deserves a little pat on the back for their thoughtfulness, civility and performance of civic duty.
What? but i wasn't ANY of those th..
Oh no. it finally happened. my posts became invisible to lyrhawn Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Well that's odd. It says on the front page that this thread was updated at 12:08, but the most recent post I see is DK's. Hitting refresh doesn't seem to bring anything up. Must be some sort of glitch.
quote:Posted by Orincoro What I want to know is, what are you running for, and when?
Well I'm only 24, so I won't be running for anything anytime soon. But I hope to have my law degree before I'm 30, so maybe around the time I'm 35 I could run for Michigan's AG spot or maybe the House, or state senate, and then on to the governor's mansion in Lansing before maybe getting a VP nod (my family did it once before! Though that was 100 years ago) or a nice cabinet position. I imagine it'll be a couple decades before I run for anything where you could legally vote for me Orincoro, assuming you'd want to.
That's assuming the position of Hegemon doesn't become available sooner. If that happens, you can expect a write in candidacy for which your support will be heavily lobbied .
Posted by plaid (Member # 2393) on :
quote:McCain also was reluctant to use Obama's incendiary pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, as a campaign issue. The Republican had set firm boundaries: no Jeremiah Wright; no attacking Michelle Obama; no attacking Obama for not serving in the military. McCain balked at an ad using images of children that suggested that Obama might not protect them from terrorism. Schmidt vetoed ads suggesting that Obama was soft on crime (no Willie Hortons). And before word even got to McCain, Schmidt and Salter scuttled a "celebrity" ad of Obama dancing with talk-show host Ellen DeGeneres (the sight of a black man dancing with a lesbian was deemed too provocative).
But scary to read this:
quote:The Obama campaign was provided with reports from the Secret Service showing a sharp and disturbing increase in threats to Obama in September and early October, at the same time that many crowds at Palin rallies became more frenzied. Michelle Obama was shaken by the vituperative crowds and the hot rhetoric from the GOP candidates. "Why would they try to make people hate us?" Michelle asked a top campaign aide.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
nhrrrrrhhhh
quote:Now that the 2008 election is over, reporters are spilling all the juciest, and previously off the record, gossip from the campaign trail. Much of it is about the infighting between Palin and McCain's staff, as Newsweek's treasure trove of post-election gossip reveals. However, perhaps one of the most astounding and previously unknown tidbits about Sarah Palin has to do with her already dubious grasp of geography. According to Fox News Chief Political Correspondent Carl Cameron, there was great concern within the McCain campaign that Palin lacked "a degree of knowledgeability necessary to be a running mate, a vice president, a heartbeat away from the presidency," in part because she didn't know which countries were in NAFTA, and she "didn't understand that Africa was a continent, rather than a series, a country just in itself."
***UPDATE*** Fox News Chief Political Correspondent Carl Cameron appeared on The O'Reilly Factor tonight and described in much fuller detail the truly astonishing behavior, and lack of knowledge, of Sarah Palin on the campaign trail, as well as the nasty infighting that resulted from, some would say, Palin's "diva" behavior. (Earlier today, Palin said reports of her "diva" behavior and any tension within the campaign were "absolutely false.")
Cameron relates how McCain aides were terrified of Palin's lack of knowledge of international and national issues, and even basic civics. Cameron reports that Palin was unfamiliar with the concept of "American exceptionalism," and that not only did she not understand that Africa was a continent rather than a single country but also that during debate prep Palin was unable to name all the nations in North America.
Palin was apparently a nightmare for her campaign staff to deal with. She refused preparation help for her interview with Katie Couric and then blamed her staff, specifically Nicole Wallace, when the interview was rightly panned as a disaster. After the Couric interview, Palin turned nasty with her staff and began to accuse them of mishandling her. Palin would view press clippings of herself in the morning and throw "tantrums" over the negative coverage. There were times when she would be so nasty and angry that her staff was reduced to tears..
quote:"a degree of knowledgeability necessary to be a running mate, a vice president, a heartbeat away from the presidency," in part because she didn't know which countries were in NAFTA, and she "didn't understand that Africa was a continent, rather than a series, a country just in itself."
Oh come on. I'm totally firm in the belief that she's unqualified to be president, but she can't be that much of a blithering idiot. I find it impossible to believe that a governor of a border state with Canada wouldn't know what NAFTA was. Has she just never heard of Mexico? I find that just a little too hard to believe.
quote:but also that during debate prep Palin was unable to name all the nations in North America.
This however I might not blame her for. I consider myself a fairly intelligent person, and I think I'd be hard pressed to rattle off the name of every Central American country (well, without using Yakko's "Nations of the World" in my head anyway). I could probably make a commendable dent though. If you mean North America as just the NAFTA countries, then I don't believe that report. If that includes Central America, then I believe it's possible, and I don't think she's especially unqualified or stupid because of it.
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
Wow. That's just...
It's either McCain's aid's blaming Palin for the loss or Palin is really an idiot. I'm not sure which to believe.
In other news, it appears Caroline Kennedy may be tapped to be the UN ambassador, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may head the EPA, and Colin Powell may be the SecDef, according to politico. Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
RFK JR to head the EPA? That's a fantastic choice!
I'm getting all tingly.
Posted by Humean316 (Member # 8175) on :
It would be a great choice. Here is a horrible choice: John Kerry for Secretary of State. The rumor is that he is angling for the job, but I doubt Obama gives it to him.
Furthermore, the Democrats have won another senate seat, with the election in Oregon where Merkley defeated Smith. There are still three outstanding races in Alaska, Minnesota, and in Georgia.
And here is a good one, the rumor swirling is that if Ted Stevens wins his seat, he will immediately step down, Gov. Palin will then step down as well, the Lt. Gov. will become Gov. of Alaska and appoint Sarah Palin the new Republican Senator from Alaska. I really kid you not...
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
I've heard the same rumor. I'll believe it when I see it.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
I've heard that one swirling around too, but I don't see it happening. I don't think Stevens will step down, I think he'll have to be removed by a prison sentence, or by some other means.
I didn't see anyone call Merkley, but looking at the returns it looks like he has a sizeable lead now. Georgia will go to a special election most likely now, and Minnesota will face a recount with Coleman up by less than 500 votes. Assuming Stevens wins Alaska, which boggles the mind but looks likely, Dems can get 59 max, 57 minimum.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
quote:And here is a good one, the rumor swirling is that if Ted Stevens wins his seat, he will immediately step down, Gov. Palin will then step down as well, the Lt. Gov. will become Gov. of Alaska and appoint Sarah Palin the new Republican Senator from Alaska. I really kid you not...
I'd give this more credence if the person appointed kept the seat the whole term. But Alaska law specifies a special election to fill a resigning Senator's term if there are more than 30 months left in it.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
You don't think Palin would get elected in an outright election?
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
Ah Palin, why must you continue to amuse:
quote: A call last week by a Quebec radio prankster pretending to be French President Nicolas Sarkozy reportedly became a fiery source of tension between the already feuding McCain and Palin camps. An aide to the Alaska governor, Steve Biegun, OK'd the call without discussing it with McCain's people or the U.S. State Department.
The Los Angeles Times reported that an outraged Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain's top strategist, organized a conference call after the prank — which revealed Ms. Palin to be ill-informed and naive — made international headlines and brought further ridicule to the campaign.
He demanded to know who had arranged the Sarkozy call and questioned why anyone would have agreed to such an unusual request and then failed to clear it with top staff.
quote: One senior aide told the magazine that she was told to buy three suits for the Republican National Convention and hire a stylist, but instead, the vice-presidential nominee began amassing costly goods from stores like Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus.
At one point during the campaign, Ms. Palin's youngest daughter, seven-year-old Piper, was photographed carrying a US$790 Louis Vuitton bag.
Two sources told Newsweek the goods were bought by a wealthy donor, who was flabbergasted when he saw the bills. Ms. Palin also allegedly instructed low-level staffers to buy her clothes on their credit cards, something the McCain campaign only discovered last week when the aides sought reimbursement.
...
The relationship between Ms. Palin and Mr. McCain, in fact, had deteriorated in the final days of the campaign to the point that they were seldom talking.
“I think it was a difficult relationship,” one top McCain campaign official told the New York Times. “McCain talked to her occasionally.”
Rahm Emmanuel has officially accepted Obama's invitation to be White House COS.
Next up, the Big Four.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: You don't think Palin would get elected in an outright election?
I think she would, but I don't think essentially appointing herself would help in that effort, and it might hurt.
If she had a whole term, or even four years, as an incumbent, she could overcome any downside from that.
Posted by katharina (Member # 827) on :
I think...
McCain picked her after a single conversation three days before he announced it.
She wasn't completely vetted and he didn't know her well.
I think he was charmed by a pretty lady and her reputation. If he's mad about it, he should be mad at himself.
And I do think that his aides muzzled her for the first whole month. If she couldn't be trusted to be on her own, then picking her to vice-president was an irresponsible thing to do. If she can't face an American journalist, she'd be eaten alive in the White House. If she can't be trusted enough to give an interview, she shouldn't have been trusted enough to put on the ticket.
Posted by Xavier (Member # 405) on :
Looks like one electoral vote from Nebraska has a very high probability of going to Obama:
Would be the first time that any state has split its electoral vote, as far as I know.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
quote:Originally posted by Dagonee:
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: You don't think Palin would get elected in an outright election?
I think she would, but I don't think essentially appointing herself would help in that effort, and it might hurt.
If she had a whole term, or even four years, as an incumbent, she could overcome any downside from that.
If it were any other state but Alaska I'd agree with you. But they just elected a convicted felon! All bets are off up there. Posted by Saephon (Member # 9623) on :
I was wondering if anyone else had heard the story of Palin's Shopping Spree. Good Lord, what if they had won Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by Saephon: I was wondering if anyone else had heard the story of Palin's Shopping Spree. Good Lord, what if they had won
Yes, we discussed it in the election thread.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
quote:But they just elected a convicted felon! All bets are off up there.
I'm pretty sure the thinking was he'll resign and a republican will be appointed.
I think a dead democrat won the same way a few years back.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Again, that makes logical sense...
But I'm not convinced that logical sense can be applied to the situation. Stevens isn't what I'd call a conventional politician anyway. It's the "series of tubes" guy. His statements since the conviction don't seem to reflect reality. Frankly, unless forcibly removed, I don't think he has any intention of resigning.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Then again taxing large corporations to fund the federal budget in its entirety AND to pay all US citizens a few thousand dollars per year (like they do in Alaska)...
Does the Republican base ever think about its candidate choices?
Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
YES! Daily Show had the Star Wars reference for the celebrations!
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Damn I missed it. I'll have to catch it later.
Posted by Threads (Member # 10863) on :
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) And it's good to see that it wasn't a tight race either.
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