This is a thread where you can do anything recession related. You may whine about how your work is doing horrible things to you in the name of the economy. You can post your resume*. You can talk about doing that thing you always meant to do but couldn't because you had your job to worry about. Or heck we can combine forces and start our own hatrack business venture, and go forward like time into history!
----- Seems like every two years I lose my job, the only thing that makes me feel OK about it is that the last two places I've worked at are, or are likely to be, going out of business. I cause businesses to fail by just being there. I should get that officially listed as a disability and then go about coercing companies into giving me protection money so that I don't seriously attempt to work for them. In the interest of full disclosure I've sent applications to the State Department, National Security Advisory, Central Intelligence Agency, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. If I am granted employment at any of those places at best, a branch of the federal government will fail, at worst the union will dissolve.
I went to sleep at 9:30pm and woke up at 2:30am, apparently I can't even sleep full time.
And unemployment benefits, how does it make any sense to tax unemployment benefits?! It's like the government is saying to me, "Here's a paltry sum, now give us back a chunk of it!"
Folks seem quick to point out that Utah's unemployment rate is much lower than the national average. Of course it is, any fool can get a job for the price of their soul here telling rich employed folks how they ought to be spending their money and then get a sales commission. "Hey there Mr. Millionaire, why aren't you investing in a security system, real estate, time shares, oil futures?! Of course I myself would be investing in all these things if I had your money, so hand over a chunk and watch me go back to night school!"
I'll be going to the plasma clinic twice a week until I find a job, I'll make a cool $60 a week doing that. Of course occasionally my arms will look like I laid them on a railroad track as the train ran by, but hey maybe somebody will see my arms and buy me a drink because they think my wife beats me up. Of course I don't drink in the first place but at least I'd get free peanuts.
Whenever I eat now all I'll be able to do is think about how much it costs. If I turn on the heat I think of the utility bill. I'd cancel my cellphone if I didn't have to shell out $200 in fees. If I drive especially carefully can I just forgo car insurance?
Do I get another hourly wage job, or do I take out the largest student loan I can get and try to ride out this recession in grad school? Why can't I get paid for the hours I will spend everyday looking for a job?
Is it sickly ironic that the Utah Department of Workforce Services reported increasing its' staff by 150% over the last year? -----
*Don't actually post your RL resume.
[ February 04, 2009, 06:38 AM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
I would prefer to be doing well while my friends are all doing well; instead, most of my friends are eating street and selling plasma. I have recently caught up with a long-time friend who is living in a house in westminister, with no power nor heating. 17 friends have moved back in with parents. In fact, so many are, that it has lost its stigma among my peers. When you're slumming by, driving on fumes, life imparts different lessons and is fundamentally different. Coffee is a luxury, going to movies a significant investment. Concerts cease to happen. Drinking becomes untenably expensive as a habit. You look at your cat and realize that as much as you love him/her, they are an unforgivable luxury. If they got sick, you can't take them to the vet.
Then the more serious realities kick in: you can't get sick. Hell, you can't even get dental work. If your glasses get broken, you can't even get them fixed. You just weld them back together inelegantly and wear them crooked and scuffed. Access to reasonable cooking facilities becomes limited. Your diet starts getting replaced with heavily processed foods. Your dinner options are the several various fast food joints within walking distance that have dollar menus. Paradoxically, a recession is a great time to gain weight. J used to work in mortgages and is now unemployed. She goes to bars in the hope that men will buy her drinks as its the only vestige of her previous jet-setting life she can still cling to. M has sold two cars, including his boxter, in order to stay afloat. Solvent friends see couches filled up with insolvent friends. L is a graphic design artist who will take anything and will be happy to get back into employment at $20k. S is seriously contemplating becoming an escort. Excusing my french, PayDay loan centers have begun gleefully ****ing my friends in need. So desperate is the workforce in the neighboring towns that my overhead has reduced significantly; I can simply exploit the desperate, either directly or through day labor centers like LaborReady. For reasons like these, I am lipstick economics, and it's bizarre. When the real estate melted down, I started making real money. When the commercial paper market ground to a halt due to the CBL's and MBS's, acting as the harbinger of a worldwide depression that would last for years, things got even better for me. It's like being a demolition specialist after a hurricane hits the ninth ward. Disaster fills your plate for years to come.
Posted by Eaquae Legit (Member # 3063) on :
I feel very lucky these days. I work in an "idiot-proof curries" shop - buy one of our sachets, just add meat and water! My bosses have actually seen revenues increase this month (not counting the Christmas sales). Our theory is that people still want the treat of takeout but can't afford it, so they come to us. Either way, I'm really glad my job is secure.
Meanwhile, I'm happy to be a student right now. With any luck, by the time I get out and start looking for a real job, the worst of this will have blown over. A fantasy, I know, but it keeps me hoping.
Posted by Lisa (Member # 8384) on :
Shouldn't it be "Official Hatrack Depression Thread"?
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by Lisa: Shouldn't it be "Official Hatrack Depression Thread"?
Shhh! Nobody is using that word yet, just thinking about it makes it a self fulfilling prophesy.
Posted by BandoCommando (Member # 7746) on :
Maybe Lisa wasn't talking about the economy, but just her mood.
A lot of public school teachers are getting more and more concerned about how state budget shortfalls will affect our program budgets. This is particularly true for teachers (like me) who teach elective subjects. When my budget gets cut, it puts more of a financial burden on those wishing to participate in band, which definitely limits access to a portion of the school's population. And this assumes that they even retain my position. I haven't heard either way if my school is looking into cutting positions, and I think given the current size of my band program I wouldn't be the first on the chopping block, but it is still a concern.
I keep trying to reassure myself that it makes good business sense for the district to retain my position, even if they perhaps cut my budget. I mean, I see have 300 student contacts every day, which means that, if students were scheduled for other classes instead of band, it would take two or three teachers instead of just one. But still, it keeps one up at night.
Posted by Stray (Member # 4056) on :
What field do you work in, Samp?
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
My husband is looking for a job. Which is very difficult. I look at the news and see companies cutting huge amounts of their workforce and think, dh applied there. I bet if they just let go thousands of people, they aren't going to hire him. I am trying to avoid reading the news and thinking happy thoughts. Afterall, he did one interview that would have hired him if he could start now (he is finishing his masters right now). And when it didn't work out, they went on and on about how hard it is to find someone with such an impressive resume and a great interview to go with it and on and on. Called him and told him about other openings in other departments since they hated the thought of the company missing out on him. Of course, none of the other departments have called back and he still doesn't have a job lined up for when he graduates...
Posted by Alcon (Member # 6645) on :
The more I hear the more I'm cursing the fact that I graduate in May. I'm applying for Teach For America, but all my friends who've applied -- and have better grades than I -- have been rejected. I'm pretty much riding on the fact that I'm a double major and better yet, a double major in two sciences, to carry me in. Not likely. I'm looking at other service options but I don't feel like a good candidate for any of them. Right now I'm wishing I'd taken less risks in college. I'm wishing I'd tried for that bloody 4.0 (or hell, even a 3.5) rather than trying to take as many interesting classes as possible.
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
The more people that get laid off, the fewer people to buy stuff, the less product that companies can sell, the fewer employees that they can pay, the more people that get laid off.
It's a pretty scary cycle. I'm in a relatively safe place for now, but who knows where the bottom of this thing will be.
Posted by maui babe (Member # 1894) on :
My husband has been out of work since November. The two jobs in his field that have been available since then both had over 100 applicants. He's starting an IT training program next week - he worked IT until about 7 years ago, so just needs updates on new systems and certification.
The crazy thing about unemployment insurance (at least in Hawaii) are the stringent, yet extremely vague rules they have. For instance, you have to be "actively looking for work". I'm cool with that, but they define that here as making 3 job contacts a week. Which we've been told means 3 applications a week. Well, there have been two jobs in my husband's field since November, so he's been scouring the internet and the classifieds for anything that's remotely connected. Most of the jobs he's applied for he's extremely over-qualified for and they pay less than his unemployment pay. And if he accepted a job, he'd lose the chance to go into the training program. But if he turns down "suitable work" (don't even try to get that defined. No one knows what it means), he'll lose all of his benefits.
He was actually offered a position from one of the places he applied for and had a mess to clean up from that so he could keep his benefits and go to school without "refusing work". The DOL employee handling his case basically told him to apply for jobs he's not qualified for and cannot hope to land, just to meet the requirements and not to worry about getting an offer.
Once he starts the program next week, he won't have to apply every week, but it's been a frustrating experience.
My job is being eliminated in July. So I'm looking too. Of course, I'm also moving to Oahu around then, so there's lots of change coming. It's a frightening time to be looking for work, I'll tell you. Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: This is a thread where you can do anything recession related. You can post your resume*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *Don't actually post your RL resume.
Blackblade
Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
What is an RL resume?
My industry is doing pretty good right now. Hopefully bonuses will happen this year.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
"Real Life".
What's your industry?
Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
oil/gas
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Real life resume.
Personally I hadn't been worried at my job for a long time because people are still going out to eat, they're just doing it more infrequently and in smaller numbers, but a couple family members have lost their jobs recently, and my best friend's dad, who is an electrician, lost his job at a hospital. Now I'm a little worried. My hours are already fairly small, and I only work on the weekends, but they rush me out the door faster and faster and for the first time in awhile, money is really becoming tight, and I ALREADY live at home. Thank God I paid my car off last year or I'd be in some serious trouble, and for that matter, thank goodness I crosstrained so much last year at the restaurant or I'd already have been let go. If I get fired, I don't know what I'll do. None of the local restaurants are hiring (not the back of the house anyway), and I don't think you get unemployment if you work part time.
I work harder now than I used to, so the value of my work will stand out more in case someone does have to be let go. Next month I'll have been at my job for 5 years, and I only have to make it one more until I plan to quit when I go to either grad school or law school. There's a rumor going around that one of the managers is being fired to save money, but I hear lots of rumors. I like to think that things here in southeast Michigan are already worse than most every other place, and that they can't possibly get any worse, but I know things can always get go further down hill. I just hope things hold out long enough to get me through.
Posted by Achilles (Member # 7741) on :
I noticed yesterday that my tax-preparer was booked solid until next week. Good times for that industry, at least until April.
Posted by ketchupqueen (Member # 6877) on :
quote:Originally posted by Achilles: I noticed yesterday that my tax-preparer was booked solid until next week. Good times for that industry, at least until April.
Yeah, haven't noticed much of a slowdown in my husband's workload. Although they have had a harder time selling their "tax maintenance program"-- basically insurance in case you have questions or get audited. If you don't buy it you get charged for your time if you call to ask questions about tax planning during the year (although they don't usually charge on a call for a quick question, if they have to do any research and it takes more than 10 or 15 minutes they will) or if you get audited and they have to defend your return you get charged for that. If you buy it a certain amount of their time and any work they do on an audit is not charged because you paid for the TMP. It's a tougher sell this year.
Posted by Synesthesia (Member # 4774) on :
I need a job, and my unemployment hasn't come yet. Maybe I could start an unemployed mafia.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
I got called this morning and was told that I do not qualify for unemployment benefits. I mentioned that I am in school and that I cannot drop that specific class but that I could still work full time if the shift starts around 10:00am. Apparently they can only give me benefits if I am not in school or completely able to work any shift available. They are going to review my application again and I'll know by Sunday if everything is green. If not I'll have to talk to an appeals judge over the phone and perhaps he/she will have the latitude to say I qualify for their cheques.
So I went to school to qualify for a loan, since I'm a senior I could get upwards of $7500 subsidized. But no because I am only taking one class, (the last class I need to graduate) and not the minimum of 6 credits, I cannot qualify for a loan. I could go to my bank but I am paying back a short term loan there and it was a nightmare to get $1600 out of them in the first place.
Too much school for unemployment benefits, not enough school for a student loan.
edited for grammar.
[ February 04, 2009, 03:31 PM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
Wow. Tough call there. I think I would go ahead and say you can work any shift so the checks can start coming. Express your preference for later shifts to potential employers, but state availability for any shift in your application. If you get an offer and it's only for an early shift, decide at that time if you need to drop the class.
Posted by scifibum (Member # 7625) on :
Can you add credits to get the loan? (Maybe it's finally time for that bowling class?)
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
quote:Originally posted by scifibum: Can you add credits to get the loan? (Maybe it's finally time for that bowling class?)
I was just thinking that too. Sign up for a couple weekend fluff classes. The fitness class is like an expensive gym membership.
Posted by Jhai (Member # 5633) on :
quote:Originally posted by lobo: oil/gas
Yeah, I'm an energy market consultant, and my division hasn't had much trouble finding contracts. When things are so variable in the market companies need analysts all the more. My husband works in the financial industry, but he's in product management, which isn't an area you really want to lay people off from. In fact, his group is looking to hire more people because they're badly understaffed.
Really, the recession hasn't affected our lives in any significant way. It means I probably won't be job hopping this summer, and we might stay in the DC area a year or two longer than originally planned until we can sell our house at a profit (we could currently sell & break even, except for closing costs).
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Mattp: I'll probably just say I can take any shift so I can qualify and also state that on applications. Hopefully I'll just snatch up a good part time or full time job in the near future.
I can't add credits as it's too late in the semester, unless I get a note for my teacher or sign up for a class that starts second block. I don't know of any classes I really could take second block. But I'll look into it just in case. But perhaps a loan isn't the way to go.
Also apparently if I get unemployment and donate plasma, the plasma money is deducted dollar for dollar from my cheque. I'm going to check with my center to see if they report individual payouts to the IRS.
Posted by Artemisia Tridentata (Member # 8746) on :
Our workload is increasing. We are still hiring people every month. We have an online application system and jobs that used to attract 10 to 20 applicants now have well over 100. I'm sure that if they looked at a map there wouldn't be as many. But recruting is a lot easier than a year ago. My issue is on the other end of a career. I have been planning on retiring this year and my 401(k) account has morphed into a 201(k). I am still planning on it but am getting worried.
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
Artemisia, that's where the recession has hit my family the most - my dad didn't move most of his retirement egg out of eBay stock (that's where he works), and it got hit really hard. He's in his mid-55s, and I think this, coupled with the housing market, has pushed back his planned retirement by a few years, if not more.
I've been trying really, really hard not to say "I told you so," since I advised him to move his money into safer, lower-returns investments years ago. So far successful - I love him, but he was really an idiot about this, and his ranting now doesn't help anything.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Also the epicfail blog has one of the most concentrated levels of hilarity I have ever seen on the internet.
Posted by Artemisia Tridentata (Member # 8746) on :
Mine's even worse. Two years ago, the lady that administers our plan told me that she had heard me give dozens of briefings to new employees in which I had advised them to remember to move their funds to a more conservitive investment several years before a planned retirement. She wanted me to do it right then. I promised to do it within the week. I just kept putting it off.
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
As long as we're talking retirement savings sob stories...
My company switched to a new 401k plan and rolled all of the investments into a cash account with the new plan. I had decided to leave the cash there until I had a chance to look into things but after about 30 days of inactivity they helpfully auto-invested the entire sum into a some catchall "you're retiring in X years" plan about a month or two before everything started seriously heading south. This would have been the one time where my procrastination and lazyiness would have paid off.
Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
This is a good time for employers to get rid of the dead weight. The downturn is mostly mental...
Posted by natural_mystic (Member # 11760) on :
quote:Originally posted by lobo: The downturn is mostly mental...
What sources of information give you that impression?
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
A lot of the things exacerbating the downturn are mental (though many of those are instigated by policy), but the effects of the downturn are definitely being felt by real people. Nothing like the great depression, but there are a lot of people to hurt before it gets anywhere near there.
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
And even if true, that doesn't really change anything about how it affects individuals and businesses. Decisions need to be made based on who will buy what then. This affects personal finances as well as business decisions. Regardless of whether it's all mental or not, people are still not buying things, still getting laid off, still losing their retirement savings, and no one has any clue when that will change.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
Oh, a lot of people have some clues about when that will change. There are a number of models and heuristics pointing to the overall economy starting to head up again in six months to a year and a half (there would be more certainty, but this is an unusual situation). Some sectors will probably remain in difficulty for a while past that, as they're not only typically lagging sectors, but are being particularly hard hit (commercial construction, for instance).
Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
Do you see gas lines? Do you see lines at the food kitchens? Do you see massive unemployment?
I HEAR lots of doom and gloom though...
The difference between this and other down-turns, is that the media and politicians keep saying the sky is falling. Consumer confidence is low. The fundamentals are not.
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
quote:Oh, a lot of people have some clues about when that will change.
What I should have said is "and this won't be over very soon" but I was feeling a bit dramatic.
Also, I'm not putting a whole ton of stock in any particular forecasts at this point. I know several people think they have a clue, but still...
Posted by ketchupqueen (Member # 6877) on :
quote:Originally posted by lobo: Do you see gas lines? Do you see lines at the food kitchens? Do you see massive unemployment?
No (except where the ice storm hit), yes, and yes.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
Even if the gas supply became very low (and it isn't right now, because gas isn't an issue in the current recession), there wouldn't be gas lines until the gov't put in price restrictions, just higher gas prices.
And unemployment is both quite high (and increasingly rapidly) in comparison to most of the last couple decades, and probably underestimating some parts of the effect, as the underemployment rate has also been climbing steeply. It'll probably stop somewhere above the rate in the early 90s, but below the rate in the early 80s.
Posted by natural_mystic (Member # 11760) on :
quote:Originally posted by lobo: Do you see gas lines? Do you see lines at the food kitchens? Do you see massive unemployment?
I HEAR lots of doom and gloom though...
The difference between this and other down-turns, is that the media and politicians keep saying the sky is falling. Consumer confidence is low. The fundamentals are not.
Your questions lead one to a conclusion concerning the scale of the down-turn, not to the conclusion that the down-turn isn't real (as against mental).
Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
I am not saying that the downturn is not real. The scope is what I am talking about. The politicians and media would have us believe that this is on par with the great depression.
Posted by natural_mystic (Member # 11760) on :
There is a difference between saying that a down-turn is over-hyped and saying a down-turn is mental. After 5+ years of living in a bubble there are very real economic reasons for why this down-turn is happening.
Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
I said "mostly mental"...
And since we lived in a bubble, it isn't really a down turn. It is a correction.
Posted by natural_mystic (Member # 11760) on :
quote:Originally posted by lobo: I said "mostly mental"...
And since we lived in a bubble, it isn't really a down turn. It is a correction.
Corrections and down-turns are not mutually exclusive phenomena. They are both in action.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:Originally posted by lobo: I am not saying that the downturn is not real. The scope is what I am talking about. The politicians and media would have us believe that this is on par with the great depression.
They are actually bending over backwards to try to convince the more pessimistic among us that it has not fallen to that level and they will do everything in their power to avert the possibility.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:Originally posted by Stray: What field do you work in, Samp?
I'm a subcontractor. I primarily work on huge projects making gargantuan mansions and ranch homes for absurdly rich people. What makes it lipstick-economics-ey is that the opening of the recession caused a flurry of dudes on the top end of the socioeconomic stratum to just go 'whelp, this looks like a good time to quit and settle down' so the construction of giant homes out here simply accelerated.
The houses also get cooler as time goes on.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
quote:Originally posted by MattP:
quote:Originally posted by scifibum: Can you add credits to get the loan? (Maybe it's finally time for that bowling class?)
I was just thinking that too. Sign up for a couple weekend fluff classes. The fitness class is like an expensive gym membership.
Be careful. Technically, only credits that count towards graduating can be used to calculate eligibility for financial aid. Not every school is diligent about checking, but many are -- and the likelihood increases if you are adding the class after the usual deadline.
We have a student in a similar situation. Personally, I think a graduating senior should be able to get a Stafford loan even if they're only taking one class (with certain caveats, like having been enrolled the previous semester full-time). Now we just have to convince Congress. Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by rivka:
quote:Originally posted by MattP:
quote:Originally posted by scifibum: Can you add credits to get the loan? (Maybe it's finally time for that bowling class?)
I was just thinking that too. Sign up for a couple weekend fluff classes. The fitness class is like an expensive gym membership.
Personally, I think a graduating senior should be able to get a Stafford loan even if they're only taking one class (with certain caveats, like having been enrolled the previous semester full-time). Now we just have to convince Congress.
From your lips to the presidents' pen.
Posted by pooka (Member # 5003) on :
We bought back the same house we owned from 2003 to 2006. It was much cheaper than it had been in 2006, but still more expensive than when we bought it in 2003. It falls about 1/3 the way between the two amounts. Just a bit of perspective there. In terms of the market, I think we are in reality about halfway between the 2003 and 2006 amount.
Now we just have to sell or rent our house in Maryland. We've been carrying the two mortgages on it and the Utilites for 6 months now.
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
I think that one anecdote might just be that.
Here's a visualization of housing prices across 20 cities, I think a house selling for 2006 prices now would be a bit of an outlier.
That graph is quite heartening, because I refused to buy something for the five years I lived in Dallas. It looks like while Dallas missed out on the boom, it is missing out on the bust as well. Good for Dallas.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
Mucus: That's the change in housing prices, year on year, not the housing prices. Since the peaks are often longer or higher than the troughs, the actual home prices in general haven't fallen to quite where they were before they started climbing a lot.
Integrate if you want the home prices instead of just the change.
Posted by DarkKnight (Member # 7536) on :
quote: They are actually bending over backwards to try to convince the more pessimistic among us that it has not fallen to that level and they will do everything in their power to avert the possibility.
It feels to me like President Obama and Congress is telling us to bend over and take their massive borrowing plan or else everything will fail...only THEY can save us from certain doom!
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
fugu13: Ah, you're right. I've have to find something else.
Looks like you're right, house prices in general are only back to around March 2004. (For the other poster, Dallas is only back to April 2005)
Thats pretty surprisingly to me in light of stuff like:
quote: The relentless slide in home prices has left nearly one in six U.S. homeowners owing more on a mortgage than the home is worth, raising the possibility of a rise in defaults — the very misfortune that touched off the credit crisis last year.
[ February 05, 2009, 12:28 PM: Message edited by: Mucus ]
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by Mucus: fugu13: Ah, you're right. I've have to find something else.
In other news you are in possession of a "have" that you could sell, it's in pretty good condition just out of place.
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
I guess I need to find a excess word price index too.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
That's easily explainable: the rise in housing prices from 2004 to 2007 or so was quite large, and a lot of homeowners (even in existing homes) took out mortgages (including second mortgages) near the 'top' of the trend. Many of those mortgages were with low or no money down. That meant that even a slight drop in home value would put a mortgage-holder underwater on the mortgage.
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
Like I said, it somehow makes sense.
However, its still mind-blowing to me that 1 in 6 homeowners would either have bought a house during that time with so little equity or have borrowed that much money against their house.
After all, even with a small 20% down-payment and no principal paid back, there's a fairly narrow window close to the peak in order to be underwater already. So this large number of people must have had as you said, significantly less.
That just blows my mind, especially coming from Canada where people with less than 20% have to pay a hefty mandatory mortgage insurance premium to CHMC and mortgage interest isn't tax deductible.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
We're not talking 20%, we're talking 0 to 5% down (either real or effectively, by taking out a second mortgage to cover the down on a first mortgage).
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
Thats what I was referring to by "significantly less"
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by Mucus: Like I said, it somehow makes sense.
However, its still mind-blowing to me that 1 in 6 homeowners would either have bought a house during that time with so little equity or have borrowed that much money against their house.
After all, even with a small 20% down-payment and no principal paid back, there's a fairly narrow window close to the peak in order to be underwater already. So this large number of people must have had as you said, significantly less.
That just blows my mind, especially coming from Canada where people with less than 20% have to pay a hefty mandatory mortgage insurance premium to CHMC and mortgage interest isn't tax deductible.
I think you are making a number of invalid assumptions. First off, 20 percent down payment is pretty unusual in many parts of the country. When we bought our house in 1992, we were required to have 15% as the down payment and that was higher than most parts of the country. For decades its been possible to get an FHA loan with as little as 3% down and a VA loan with no down payment. Part of the current collapse is related to the fact that banks were offering uninsured mortgages with very little or no down payment. I would guess that very few first time home buyers are putting anything near 20% down.
I've been told by Real Estate Agents that the average American home sells once every 5 years. Assuming that is correct, I would expect roughly 50% of American homeowners purchased their home since Jan. 2004. It would not surprise me at all if 1/3 of the people who bought homes during the last 5 years now owe more on them the homes are currently worth and that would give you 1 in 6 homes.
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
I think both you and Fugu are misreading me.
I'm not saying that the statistics are wrong, I explicitly said that they somehow make sense.
Those "assumptions" that you're referring to aren't assumptions being used to dispute the statistics, after all, I already accept them.
Rather they're used to illustrate why I think the situation in the States is mind-blowing by giving you context on the perspective I'm coming from.
Edit to add: Maybe you're both interpreting "mind-blowing" in the sense of "that must be wrong" when I'm using it in the sense of "hot damn, thats really different"
Posted by mungagungadin (Member # 11746) on :
Slouching toward Mexico How to slip from a first world to a third world economy
Sad news, America has stopped working. Not that Americans get to rest, just that the Rags-to-riches Horatio Alger dream of America has been dead for years.
More than two years go, my lead debt investors offered me the use of US dollar-denominated securities, with total value at maturity in 2022 of over $100 Million US Dollars. These were offered as collateral for economic development or clean renewable energy facilities.
Today in America (18 banks) would not finance against US dollar-denominated collateral in a transaction in which there could be no loss because the collateral as security guaranteed repayment of the debt. Despite the clear invitation from the Federal Reserve Bank which posted their margin table on the internet in order to invite secure transactions the banks obstinately refused to conduit economic development in America. GLBA prevented our direct approach. The banks could have conduited the bonds at the Federal Reserve Discount Window and drawn-down cash so that no depositors funds would be involved in my proposed facility, and the banks could earn reasonable interest on the transactions. That however eliminates the chance for politics to enter the picture.
It is tempting to blame all our problems on the commercial banks. Or our legislators. Or our oversight committees. The simple fact is that we are in a capital crisis, which means we have insufficient capital for all the goods and services we can produce. No one but the Federal Reserve prints our money and no one but the FOMC injects that into circulation with the ring dealers (Interbank dealer network). The commercial banks’ refusal to access the REPO process of capital injection at a time when they are perfectly aware of the need, is the subject of this paper. The height and inventiveness of these arbitrary and capricious blockades to open access of capital in more than two years cannot dispel if our commercial banking system is broken as a result of greed, mismanagement, blindly following tradition, or cruel intelligent design. The bankers’ “Blame the consumer” and then restrict greater access to capital or the “belt tightening” approach is not the answer.
Have you ever produced some new product with your bare hands? For me, I made pizzas in college. Whatever product you made, can you recall if there was anyone there -maybe a fellow with a clipboard- to measure your production quota in order to release the proper amount of dollars for goods and services into circulation, so that you could be paid without creating a competitive hardship upon all other production? Does the black economy of tax evasion, drugs, prostitution and vice impact the amount of funds in circulation in the white economy? I’ve done many menial tasks in my life time and they were never monitored or measured by the government which nevertheless asserts control of the volume of M1 or M2 in circulation and does not have to “audit” the goods and services in order to match “growth” with capital infusion. Capitalism is very misunderstood today. Capitalism was supposed to mean the creation of capital (recognized debt securities traded to the fed for dollar bills ie federal reserve notes) which medium of exchange counted on being released by the commercial banks into general circulation upon the indications of over production of goods and services, so that products can compete in a level playing field with a reasonable cost of capital. When you artificially dry up supply it creates demand ….. for the currency. Thus only chronic shortages can keep demand at 24% credit card rates otherwise people beat a path to the door of better terms. Capitalism today means stockpiles of production of goods and services for which there is insufficient currency being released into the system, the commercial bank wants to retain the right to say “no” just as do many civil servants. Producers of goods and services striving for economic development by creating or adapting internal efficiency that call for upgrades, must compete for access to capital in order to continue providing greater productivity. If those consumers lack the supply of capital to buy from the producers who have good credit ratings but cannot access affordable capital with which to buy their raw materials then either condition destabilizes the free market. It is no longer free but subject to artificial constraints (the lack of productivity equals a lack of competitiveness resulting in a soft-default under bank/senior secured debt holder terms) how could the consumers create capital to purchase that increased productivity? This is where the system spirals out of control. The most obvious problem with the auto-bailout is that with no new money in circulation that was provided to consumers who could buy the cars (which is where the auto-makers sales generate their source of revenues) would we have to recognize that “united we stand, divided we fall” applies to economics? Americans work hard. Will tightening the belt make money appear, not hardly a strong dose of myth busting. Did Congress step in and make sure the tax-payers got nothing at all (no cash for title) in the bailout-the-top (sans shoring up the consumers). These same consumers whose wages gush up versus profits that barely trickle down to investors that saw their pensions violently contract?
So WHERE is the means of CAPITAL creation today?
How did this happen?
A good starting point is the old Gold Standard. Let’s say that ancient man began exchanging shoes for baked goods in olden times as manual production took off. As soon as we exited Noah’s Ark, commerce began. The medium of exchange that was first developed were rare metals so that everyone, no matter how dumb, could understand that this was the universal means of exchange for goods and services this medium would not lose value area to area and region to region. But this method had two major draw-backs 1) a medium of exchange needs to be as easily created in lock step with production of goods and services - you cannot have a bottleneck or you’ll have excess buildups of raw materials, labor, finished goods, singers without contracts, gumshoes without clients, no profits for new taxes, everything people want and need gathering dust on the shelves, and storekeepers tapping their feet 2) the medium of exchange instrument must not, in any way, be a rare commodity with less value than the goods and services that it represents. Gold, as we know, is not a strong-American product and so could not be counted on to be in such abundance as to balance out against the new and upcoming production capacity of the industrial revolution.
In the early 1900s our country realized that our currency itself was a bottle-neck. We could not whimsically increase the volumes of rare-earth metals in the vaults around the world that backed our US dollars in circulation since we needed that to match galloping production. GDP was rising baby boom inspired consumption was running rampant, we badly needed legal tender that said, “good for all debts public or private.” We also felt that it was time to stop over-collateralizing our commercial transactions- Why should a dollar represent the goods and services of Americans and a wee bit of gold? That is similar to creating a house mortgage (collateralized by the lot then the house) and backing that transaction with your car and a down payment. That is good for the banker but poor business.
So we wisely went off the Gold Standard, tying our dollars to all the goods and services of Americans and not merely one good, gold. But many people, strict concrete thinkers, squawked. They were unable to ascertain that goods are goods, whether or not there are equal amounts of rare minerals (silver, gold, platinum) on hand to balance. Then we have to factor in are more people being born that expiring so more production of more goods and services. Finally, is 1 dollar worth of hamburger exactly equal to 1 dollar’s worth of gold. The outcry was so fierce that those who regulate the monetary supply couldn’t help themselves. The bankers finally began to ponder, “I realize that Ma and Pa Farmer are the salt of the earth, and I wouldn’t want to hurt a fly, but can you tell me please, just how dumb are they?” The financiers could already see that there was a large deficit of reasonable logic (corn growers knew that they made new corn every year, and yet they inexplicably wanted to match that output to a finite supply of gold….can you blame them from wanting to exploit this?) and being good company men having a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders, they were ready to exploit this opportunity but at whose peril. Thus, the financial sector understood macroeconomics sufficiently to create a system which encouraged acquisition by receivership, or the gentle tendency for your assets to become theirs, all by manipulation of the amount of currency in circulation in the local economy. Our injections of currency have been far too low for the known production output capacity for over 60 years. We don’t factor in unexpected demand in black economy growth (when is the last time you heard prostitution sales up 40%).
We’ve had roughly a fixed mindset of 9% population growth per year (population equals workers and consumers) and the government has factored in 3% inflation and 6% new currency or M1 + M2 growth. What becomes of those productive surges and black economy withdrawals? How do we factor in surplus inventory and unexpected growth in poverty levels?
How did it happen?
Year one:
You have 100 people in a community. The town fathers authorize the creation of 100 Dollars. The people each make 1 dollar of production per day, and they all require output of 1 dollar worth of products per day. For the whole year the system operates at equilibrium.
Year two:
9 new citizens come to town, and the town fathers have a meeting. They decide that town father (Institution X) would like to become a financier and make money on renting capital, so they authorize only 3 new dollars, knowing that the economy will tend dip into recession. The six percent of humanity then becomes the revenue stream (interest payments) because there is never sufficient currency for the system to balance, they begin to create the poorest class of standards, living on 80 cents per day, and less and less over time. Thus, a flue epidemic and a host of ailments sets in which means a sudden drop in productivity and a rise in the number of citizens consigned to the lower classes.
Repeat those cycles for 60 years.
The majority of the population are in debt up to their ears as there was too little currency to match the surges in productivity and growth and to make matters worse when nobody was ill the normal attrition rate to poverty didn’t happen. Eventually, all production ceases as currency availability grinds to a halt when all raw materials are converted to goods and services are waiting on consumers who have wants and needs but no $$$$. The town fathers, wishing to avoid their comeuppance, indicate that the community must bail out the banks (who by now have all the assets and little if any money) the miser of the town has all 98% of the capital in a sock in the closet because he doesn’t trust the banks. So in order to dump the last non-performing debts upon the community and walk away whole with the inventory of assets the banker forecloses and collects all of the raw materials and finished goods. The consumers are hungry and tired but not sick. How do you kick start this economy? Give tax breaks to the 2% hoarder so that he will employ 10% and leave 90% in poverty? Sell 100% of the goods and services to the same person? Hand the poor a fishing pole and tell them to go catch dinner?
So, how was it all made possible? A powerful myth was created. The myth itself is that “more currency in circulation creates inflation” (the price of a basket of goods that is supposed to react to supply and demand) the demand is there the consumers want to eat, and live in a house, and drive a car, which must be bad for us all. The reason that this a myth is that the Keynesian calculations did not account for expanding asset pools, growth in productivity and loss of currency that paid for ill gotten moral depravity. The only time in which extra currency could possibly produce inflation is when there are few goods and many consumers. When Americans churns out productivity like machines and we have researchers and artists who are aching to make more goods, who are truly starving, this point is no where in sight. The means to inject capital at the bottom in the hands of the consumers feeds the entire system, if that is not so, consider that the miser took his 98% of the capital and left town…. so what then?
In the meantime, we’ve fallen prey to the actual causes of inflation. Recall that inflation is a measurement of an arbitrary basket of goods that are similar to consumer products: in this normal basket you would find oil, sugar, corn, a gallon of gas or milk and a mcf of methane…..and so on. The prices of these “base goods” are measured every day and all other transactions include an inflation index marker or CPI adjustment factor. Prices can inflate because A) the products truly have run out (lower supply and equal or greater demand --but we have not run out of any of these goods) or B) because the speculators cornered the supplies and created the appearance of increased demand such as for our supplies of gasoline back in 2008, (market responding to artificial demand) or C) because of growth in the number of consumers and no growth in the number of workers (supply constant with increased demand) then 20% of the currency leaves town because the hoarder sends it overseas in an investment or for war. What do you expect will happen? When money is scarce these goods and services are paid for with IOUs, not cash (future sales), and when the producers need cash in order to purchase the raw materials that are needed to produce their finished products, goods or services they must go to the financiers (who are perfectly aware that there is insufficient currency in circulation) and beg the bank to provide them with any loan against their future sales contracts that they have from their buyers (this procedure is called “discounting their receivables” or “factoring” or dNPV) so that they can buy their much needed raw materials so that they can pay back the money plus the interest from future profits. Many have stand-by credit facilities or need a co-guarantor and credit enhancement but whatever instruments or deals that are used, interest is accrued and the price of the productivity is increased to account for the banker’s portion or “interest” = “price increases” = “inflation” to offset shortfalls not the supply and demand free market that would normally exist and this is an example of false inflation.
Note that in no way does having too much currency cause inflation when there is adequate means to maintain or improve production. The fact of the matter is that overproduction puts positive pressure on prices to drop (more supply than demand). In fact, having enough currency and having even a little extra production causes deflation, where prices begin to fall- through the pressure of increased efficiency. When the bank is no longer taking a piece of the action (the portion of the raised or artifically “inflated” price) then the price of the goods and services will reach market equilibrium and will stay constant or will begin to fall.
Bankers defend their 24% con game with this line, “If you inject more money, that will devalue the dollar!” even though they are well aware of the fact that if the dollar was balanced by production we are still at equilibrium or advantage to the consumer. The dollar against other currencies is a matter of stimulating imports or exports based on the theory of production price parity. Americans today are inventory rich- having produced themselves to the brink of self-destruction in an attempt to rescue their American dreams, while simultaneously being currency-bankrupt so that we could artificially support a chronic shortage and keep real interest rates at 24%. As far as foreign trade goes- “value of the dollar” means “in relation to other currency” which shouldn’t bother since that comes down to this we pay dollars that are becoming depreciated for goods that are more valuable (cheap labor and quality products). After all, we’re the ones who set to value of everyone else’s exchange rate. And if the value of the dollar fell, would you like to pay for tangible goods with seven fat cows, or seven starved cows? Answer- a strong dollar is wanted only in an export economy, a weak dollars is wanted to support in an import economy. We need to do what is needed, when it is needed.
Knowing all this, in my opinion the financiers hit an all-time low by suggesting that it was the consumers, specifically the poor and the middle class, that were responsible for the housing/banking credit crash. At no time in the last 8 years did the producers of America stop working en masse. Our production has been beyond reproach- with most parents taking on multiple jobs to create a dual income family lifestyle and we are very good consumers. Nobody wants to be poor. In no way is the average Joe responsible for the fact that Bush’s administration injected the already-insufficient annual currency allowances that were transferred over to the middle-east, rather than supplemented and fed into America’s economy as needed with the consumers. Ben Bernanke was right then and still is now- the best and fastest answer to our capital crisis is to drop cash into the ghettos by helicopter. People who live paycheck to paycheck consume away their entire paycheck at the local small business and big business. Cleaners, bakers, and candle stick makers. They pay rent and utilities. But then, the banks sunk lower let the gas hit $4.00 and failed to drop the credit card interest rates and then refuse to make loans. How else does the money appear at a 2 income earning family? Does the manager give the big bonus at the top or at the bottom? The banks saw that America realized that we had a “capital crisis” a liquidity shortage and the top 2% said market aberration not our doing and they invented the mechanisms whereby they could cause those Americans that would be persuaded that they must buy equity in their failing banks or lose all finance viability in America. “Tell the workers and taxpayers to bail us out but expect nothing in return. They bond finance us with tax dollars but we own the profits!” the banks said. The banks did this 1) without owning up to the fact that they had pooled the mortgage tranches and after they were seasoned forgot to inject the liquidity for the consumers because credit card rates was the only surplus money in town……….. how long can 24% money sustain the economy? Something has to give in order to cause them to appear equally performing 2) they did not acknowledge that the failure that caused the eventually contagious condition was in second “vacation” homes with ARMs (repricing interest rates that did not offer interest only options, these were not “risky home loans” to poor people they rent and live paycheck to paycheck, 3) worst of all- the banks were well aware of the fact that they had been rejecting opportunities to inject capital into circulation by refusing to take any collateral to the Fed Window for discount purposes and to effect a draw-down (interest demands exceed capital creation for goods and services minus black money attrition that is rarely factored into the overall equation but everyone knows that is the whole truth). It is always better for bank’s real interest rates not prime rates to reflect perception versus reality. Trying paying your bills with perception.
Ask, yourself, if a mortgage had been successful, what would all the participants have? The equity participant would have a home free and clear, and the bank would have made interest (profit) on their loans. Banks are supposed to be “engaged in lending” in order to earn interest. That means more than houses, boats, and cars. It means small business to big business but admit something will you? If you were a banker would you prefer to loan at 24% credit card money or 9% small business money? Perception versus reality. Does prime at 1 Ľ % equate to reality? However, somehow the pool-product geniuses on wall street forgot to embed an interest-only ARM into their mortgages (allowing the homeowner to pay only interest and extend the term of the note for our period of hardship, due to robust greed) and was that option better than wrecking the housing starts? Does failing to fund economic development start to come into focus when 90% of the liquidity is vented at 24% money and little if any at economic development? Would that be why infrastructure is in such a bad state of affairs that someone point out that feeding 1 segment of the economy does not drive the other segments to performance? Was the trickle down being squandered or diverted or hoarded? Rather than being forced to pay down principal without stimulating liquidity because the banks wanted to seize those asset- equity in cars and homes, what happens when that element dries up? Equity as little a hundred dollars is worth seizing and is all in a good day’s work. Which they did and continue to do with abandon. The primary reason that my facilities weren’t financed was because the banks realized that in a heavily recessed economy, the price of renting capital (loans or credit cards) was vastly increased- (credit cards went from 8% to 30%) with predatory practices (the political assassination of Eliot Spitzer). If there had been adequate sources of liquidity and if currency had been made readily available and circulating by the funding of projects such as ours, then how would the bank be able to seize the assets of Americans by defaulted loans? Receivership Acquisition is the name of that game.
If we were to have a responsible economic policy, where should the currency (which our production justifies) be injected? Reaganesquely at the top, or Obamanautically at the bottom?
Simple thought exercise two: see a room full of 100 rich businessmen, and a room full of 100 food stamp applicants. If you had the mechanism to track the dollars as they circulated, what would be our findings 1 year after a “ceiling drop” of 1 million dollars upon each room? My prediction is that the businessmen, having no need to circulate it at all, would likely put it in their pockets and leave it on their dressers for the year. However, the poor would instantly spend it, and the money would ping one hundred times up through and around all the classes of producers until it finally came to rest, where money does, at the wealthy.
The answer to the question of where should one inject new liquidity is, for the good for all producers, at the lowest level of consumers you can find. This was how Zion was ever dreamed- because in order to balance production there must be liquidity injection, therefore, even the poor will have wherewith to subsist.
Some will counter that the Federal Reserve, our national “central bank,” only distributes money upon an interest rate, however minor. This is true, but can the source of all the money say, “I will loan you 100 cents, and you must pay back 102 cents” without an assumption that the currency can only be returned with some additional in-kind valued assets (is it the Fed Bank that causes ring-fence banks to seek to seize assets?) Is it reasonable that this should be the case?
The question is, “Does America exist to enrich the privately-owned Federal Reserve?” or “Does the Federal Reserve, which has enjoyed a special privilege license to print and release currency into the economy and has demonstrably done so disastrously, deserve to be the only bank producing and injecting dollars or deserve to change Americans an interest rate when the dollars required are only re-balancing what production? May the Fed charge interest when the inflation index indicates that insufficient currency has been released and as such, how many of which solutions are appropriate:
A) Ignore any specific “program requirement” and simply inject liquidity at lowest consumer point in every county and state until inflation balances aka Helicopter Ben idea.
B) using of state banks, issuing recognized and equivalent (on par) currency, for transaction at low interest rates for prospective production or developmental projects.
America has held out the promise it never delivered- it has said, “Come work and you will be rewarded here” but it has never produced sufficient currency to see that the workers could be paid. Today, the promise of America is a lie waiting to be righted.
The conservatives today are assisting in our national suicide by fighting releasing of money as if it had to come from the tax-payers. In a pool of ever-expanding assets (including goods, services and people who immigrate or were born here) how are the comparatively smaller assets (a portion of which becomes taxes) of last year’s production supposed to address the currency needs of this year at higher production? Ridiculous. Further, why would anyone vote get money from the tax-payers (or worse, borrow money from overseas in order to release currency for our OWN production!) when we own the plates to print it and have every reason (quantifiable production starving for currency to match) to print and release in record amounts? But conservatives are dead-set against acknowledging the facts. Every known figurehead is crying foul and urging belt tightening including Mitt Romney, who we must suppose has the tightest pants in business. Instead, they should be demanding an asset-audit and rebalancing of currency and production.
In this last week a California man, overly distraught, killed his wife and five small children because he and his wife had lost their employment at a medical center. At the same time, women are lining up to give birth at home with midwives because they cannot afford to go to a hospital. We have in the same breath those who wish to provide a service and those who want to buy the service, but our government, knowing the calamity that could befall those children, refuses to release the capital into circulation. When our children begin to die because they cannot be born in safety, the culpable burden for this refusal will likely rise to wrongful death.
Our nation is likely to complete the phases of currency starvation:
1. Rampant inflation- caused by lack of capital and the resultant factoring of receivables by manufacturers (bank interest = inflation index)
2. Receivership Acquisition- banks executing cures on secured transactions- taking assets from equity and consolidating the wealthy against the poor. (America yesterday)
3. Production switches to only-foreign consumers as locals have no currency to purchase. (Mexico today w/ America, America tomorrow w/ China).
4. Eventually only the wealthy and the impoverished will exist, prelude to civil war, communist revolution, or other depending on the strength of the variables.
Our current trajectory has us headed toward stage three as the dollars are too scarce and only China and the middle east have a large supply. Tomorrow, when no currency is released and the women begin having babies at home, and the men begin building log cabins and the children stop dreaming of college because there is no money in the country to pay them if they educated themselves, we will need a new kind of Rio Grande to cross. China is much further away but if we all use the ropes from our cars and blow up our rafts, we might be able to string a life-line to China, allowing Americans to migrate the other fateful direction toward the last supply of currency and leave America to the Mexicans. And there a good life is possible: China responsibly injects liquidity upon the indication of production.
Posted by Juxtapose (Member # 8837) on :
Wall of Text crits you for 3532 damage!
Posted by mungagungadin (Member # 11746) on :
just drop a quarter...
help if you'd like, mostly I'm stuck at home on a sick-bed and can't think straight, but it is slightly satisfying to attempt to correct what Card gets so grossly wrong.
wow, I've just looked over it (my pain med wearing off) and my grammar sucks but even then the ideas are correct.
[ February 05, 2009, 10:10 PM: Message edited by: mungagungadin ]
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
there are better things to do on a sickbed than uhh make card a personal vendetta or whatever
Posted by mungagungadin (Member # 11746) on :
well, no one else in Washington is getting it right.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Well I was talking to a school loan officer the other day and again I was refused a loan. I casually mentioned that I had just lost my job and that I just needed to make it a month or two, and she just as casually said, "Oh I totally understand, my dad lost his job months ago and has been looking for another one ever since."
Obviously I could not do aught but thank her and scurry away.
edit: Thanks Senojretep. editX2: Thanks dkw.
[ February 07, 2009, 12:27 PM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Obviously I could do ought but thank her and scurry away.
I think you mean "aught."
And tough luck on the loan. Elder Holland gave a great conference talk back in 1999 where he shared an anecdote about the financial challenges he and his family faced when he left Utah for graduate school at Yale.
One of the things that pulled me through tough times early in my marriage was a story he told once at a BYU devotional, about the hopelessness he felt soon after he'd married. He and his wife had just spent the last of their money, and were walking on the southwest end of campus. He tells of breaking down, emotionally, and how his wife comforted him. 20 years later, as President of BYU, he said he would walk out to the front porch of the President's mansion and see the exact spot where that happened. Every time I walked that sidewalk between the President's mansion and the Maeser building I would remember his assurance that despite hardship "there is help and happiness ahead. You keep your chin up. It will be all right in the end. Trust God and believe in good things to come.”
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by SenojRetep:
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Obviously I could do ought but thank her and scurry away.
I think you mean "aught."
And tough luck on the loan. Elder Holland gave a great conference talk back in 1999 where he shared an anecdote about the financial challenges he and his family faced when he left Utah for graduate school at Yale.
One of the things that pulled me through tough times early in my marriage was a story he told once at a BYU devotional, about the hopelessness he felt soon after he'd married. He and his wife had just spent the last of their money, and were walking on the southwest end of campus. He tells of breaking down, emotionally, and how his wife comforted him. 20 years later, as President of BYU, he said he would walk out to the front porch of the President's mansion and see the exact spot where that happened. Every time I walked that sidewalk between the President's mansion and the Maeser building I would remember his assurance that despite hardship "there is help and happiness ahead. You keep your chin up. It will be all right in the end. Trust God and believe in good things to come.”
I've always loved that talk ever since I first read it on my mission. It's comforting to reread it once again. Thanks for the link.
Posted by dkw (Member # 3264) on :
quote:Originally posted by SenojRetep:
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Obviously I could do ought but thank her and scurry away.
I think you mean "aught."
"naught," actually. Or "nought."
Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
Of course you're right. There was naught he could do, or (equivalently) there wasn't aught he could do.
But here's a question then: why was the decade from 1900-1909 known as the "aughts." My great-uncle was born in "Aught-Eight," for instance. Is there a colloquialism (or regionalism) in the US that "aught" means zero? *looks for Jon Boy*
<edit>Online resources, including www.dictionary.com and wordnet.princeton.edu list an archaic form that means "nothing; a cipher; zero."</edit>
Posted by pooka (Member # 5003) on :
Yeah, no one has named this decade yet. I've tried to call it "the digits" now and then, but it hasn't caught on.
We've been trying to figure out how we got approved for a second house. Something will have to change. We either have to sell the house in Maryland, rent the house in Maryland, or make more money.
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
I've heard the 2000's referred to as the aughts by a lot of different people. Things will be much easier when we get to the 20's.
And they'd better be roarin'.
Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
I've been referring to the 2000's as the "Naughts" since Jan. 1, 2000.
Despite myself, I fequently refer to the year as 'Oh-Nine' (instead of my preferred 'Naught-Nine') just because it's the construction I hear most often.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Well I was talking to a school loan officer the other day and again I was refused a loan.
You realize that since you are less than half time, her hands are completely tied?
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by rivka:
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Well I was talking to a school loan officer the other day and again I was refused a loan.
You realize that since you are less than half time, her hands are completely tied?
Yes I didn't make that completely clear earlier. There's no real way to add three more credits at this conjunction.
edit: I'm in the appeals process for unemployment benefits, so let's hope that works out.
[ February 08, 2009, 10:15 AM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Tell them that you are fully available, and that if necessary you'd drop a class if it was trouble.
What state do you live in?
Posted by Glenn Arnold (Member # 3192) on :
quote:I've been referring to the 2000's as the "Naughts" since Jan. 1, 2000.
I'm pretty sure that "naught" refers to an empty set, rather than a place holder. "Ought" refers to a place holder as in "30 ought-6." I've seen it spelled "aught," but Walt Kelly spelled it "ought," and I'm sticking with it.
Posted by Orincoro (Member # 8854) on :
quote: naught |nôt| noun the digit 0; zero. pronoun archaic nothing : he's naught but a worthless fool.
Dictionary aught 1 |ôt| (also ought) archaic pronoun anything at all : know you aught of this fellow, young sir? ORIGIN Old English āwiht (see aye 2 , wight ). aught 2 noun the digit 0; zero. ought 2 noun archaic term for aught 2 . ORIGIN mid 19th cent.: perhaps from an ought, by wrong division of a nought; compare with adder 1 .
So to sum up, Naught refers to the numeral zero, and so does aught, and in fact they may just be variations on the division of the indefinite article.
My word to date snobs: The correct way of referring to any specific time period is the way that becomes most common. In less than two years, we'll all stop saying "Two Thousand" and just say "twenty-eleven."
Posted by Chris Bridges (Member # 1138) on :
My company has been up for sale for over a year, but likely that would have happened depression, recession, or no. Mismanagement and some personal vendettas between our owners and a just-barely-minority stockholder erupted into a long court battle and we lost. However, the price we were listed for was based on 5-year-old figures (before the print journalism industry started collapsing) and so finding buyers is not an easy task.
I have little savings, my job skills are almost ideally suited solely for the antiquated machines and software we use, and people in my field are being laid off by the tens of thousands. But I can't say that's because of the economic downturn; most big print publications went a little nuts in the last 10 years and overextended like crazy, and now that we're losing all of our ad money to the Internet (and not getting enough back there to make the difference) and most of us are still scrambling to make that work, it's more of a paradigm shift that we're on the losing end of.
Where the economic downturn does affect us is that anyone buying us would likely need a loan, which may not be forthcoming.
Posted by Glenn Arnold (Member # 3192) on :
quote:My word to date snobs: The correct way of referring to any specific time period is the way that becomes most common. In less than two years, we'll all stop saying "Two Thousand" and just say "twenty-eleven."
You mean we will stop referring to the years between 1999 and 2010? What will happen to the history books?
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by Kwea: Tell them that you are fully available, and that if necessary you'd drop a class if it was trouble.
What state do you live in?
Utah. After thinking about it, I think it would be dishonest for me to claim that I am willing to drop a class that I really think is more valuable than my unemployment benefits. I can still attend my class and work full time, I'm going to try to be upfront with the appeals judge, and see if that works out for me.
Posted by JennaDean (Member # 8816) on :
quote:You mean we will stop referring to the years between 1999 and 2010? What will happen to the history books?
They'll just keep referring to "the early years of the twenty-first century".
It used to be "we're living in the eighties," and then "welcome to the nineties", but now all I hear is "welcome to the twenty-first century". We seem to just be skipping naming the decade entirely in favor of referring to the century.
Fine with me, whenever I hear "aught-nine" I think of The Music Man. "I'm an Indiana man, myself. Gary Conservatory, class of aught nine."
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
Me too!
Posted by Glenn Arnold (Member # 3192) on :
quote:It used to be "we're living in the eighties," and then "welcome to the nineties", but now all I hear is "welcome to the twenty-first century".
Which is the same as what happened at the beginning of the 20th century. I don't know that there is enough social momentum to make "ought-x" the standard way of referring to a specific year, but as you point out, there isn't any form that has really been accepted. The "ought-x" version still has time to be retroactively accepted, especially since "retro" is cool these days anyway.
Posted by advice for robots (Member # 2544) on :
I hope we start saying "double-O" to refer to the years 2001-2009, because that would be COOL.
"Yeah, I think that was back in double-O-seven."
Posted by ketchupqueen (Member # 6877) on :
I most often hear just "07," pronounced, of course, "Oh-seven."
I think that's probably the most widespread way of referring to individual years.
Posted by Kama (Member # 3022) on :
The first time I saw that was in Stross's Halting State; I wondered if it was an obscure Scottish word or something.
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
Let's see:
My father-in-law has been laid off
My wife and sister-in-law have both had their hours dramatically reduced (my wife now typically only works one 4-6 hour shift per week)
One of my best friends has moved in with my wife and I
At work, many of our clients are dramatically reducing their advertising budgets (So far, my ad agency is still growing in number of clients because we have a very competitive retainer rate. But the bad news is that we focus almost exclusively on gaming and hospitality clients who are being hit very hard right now.)
[ February 10, 2009, 04:30 PM: Message edited by: Godric 2.0 ]
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by Godric 2.0: Let's see:
My father-in-law has been laid off
My wife and sister-in-law have both had their hours dramatically reduced (my wife now typically only works one 4-6 hour shift per week)
One of my best friends has moved in with my wife and I
At work, many of our clients are dramatically reducing their advertising budgets (So far, my ad agency is still growing in number of clients because we have a very competitive retainer rate. But the bad news is that we focus almost exclusively on gaming and hospitality clients who are being hit very hard right now.)
I'm sorry to hear that Godric.
In other news my best friend was able to subcontract out some data entry work he is doing to me, so I've got something to do from now until Monday! I'll be able to make some money while looking for jobs.
I also finished applying to the CIA and decided to pick something they were hiring for but for which they probably do not have tons of applicants. Polygraph administrator seemed to fit the bill.
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: In other news my best friend was able to subcontract out some data entry work he is doing to me, so I've got something to do from now until Monday! I'll be able to make some money while looking for jobs.
I've just started seriously seeking freelance work to supplement our income. So far, plenty of responses, but no actual jobs.
Actually though, we're in a much better position right now than we were 1 or even 2 years ago. I just don't want to take anything for granted. And the small nest egg we have worked to build would evaporate pretty quickly (as in a month or two) were I to lose my job.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
barclays (which called this whole mess) says that about right now you start to see the spiraling cycle of job loss intensify in a dramatic fashion.
Posted by Enigmatic (Member # 7785) on :
I was laid off in January. It was the company's 3rd or 4th round of layoffs in the last year and much larger cuts than the ones before the whole financial meltdown in October. Also the first round to seriously affect my department, though before it we were just not refilling positions open through normal attrition.
I'm still in touch with several people from work, and this last round was definitely deep enough that the people left remaining are feeling the pain of the missing labor.
--Enigmatic
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
I was surprised today by a recording from my congressman. He wanted to know what way I thought he should vote on the stimulus bill. He used loaded words, which indicated he wanted people to say he should vote against it, but still, having him ask my opinion was kinda cool. He also wanted to know what I wanted him to vote on card check and a few other policy issues.
Posted by advice for robots (Member # 2544) on :
So...are there any industries that are layoff-proof?
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by advice for robots: So...are there any industries that are layoff-proof?
Video gaming industries seem to be extremely recession resistant for the time being.
edit: I'm finding out today if my father will get to keep his job with Shinsei Bank. I really hope he does, my younger sister with her donated kidney really needs the insurance.
Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
Repo?
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade:
quote:Originally posted by advice for robots: So...are there any industries that are layoff-proof?
Video gaming industries seem to be extremely recession resistant for the time being.
Didn't EA just cut a bunch of jobs?
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
Auto repair, maybe.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by Godric 2.0:
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade:
quote:Originally posted by advice for robots: So...are there any industries that are layoff-proof?
Video gaming industries seem to be extremely recession resistant for the time being.
Didn't EA just cut a bunch of jobs?
I believe they cut about 6% of their workforce back in October, but holiday sales IIRC were comparably just as high this past Christmas as they were a year prior.
edit: Whoops I lied, they cut an additional 11% in February.
But that's EA, they are by far the largest, I'm not sure how Activision/Blizzard is doing, or Bandai, Namco, Capcom, Nintendo, and Sega. I think Sony's problems are beyond just the recession. I also think Nintendo needs to figure out how to solve its' third party problem, or their bubble is going to pop in a very loud way.
[ February 11, 2009, 01:29 PM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
Posted by DarkKnight (Member # 7536) on :
I think some companies use the recession as a great way to fire off people they want to get to rid of without people asking too many questions. Some is legitmate cost savings, and others are probably internal politics
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by DarkKnight: I think some companies use the recession as a great way to fire off people they want to get to rid of without people asking too many questions. Some is legitmate cost savings, and others are probably internal politics
That is certainly plausible, and perhaps even likely, but it would certainly be hard to find evidence of that.
Posted by Omega M. (Member # 7924) on :
I have a job, so I have no immediate worries. I do worry about catastrophe striking and getting kicked out of my condo for being unable to make my mortgage payments; but as my parents own their home, I can always move back in with them, pay my fair share of bills, and simply feel like a loser. Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by Omega M.: I have a job, so I have no immediate worries. I do worry about catastrophe striking and getting kicked out of my condo for being unable to make my mortgage payments; but as my parents own their home, I can always move back in with them, pay my fair share of bills, and simply feel like a loser.
I have never ever believed that if parents, siblings, and children all live under the same roof that that is something to be ashamed of. This could be in part to my being raised in China, but I think there is nothing more beautiful than a large family of several generations living together and striving to provide for the physical and emotional needs of all.
Do I live with my parents currently? No, but if things keep getting rough I would be not feel ashamed to move in with them and strive to be a support rather than a burden. Sometimes family is all you've got, but it's also all you need.
There's nothing wrong with somebody going out there and making a life for their own family. But there is also nothing wrong with a family facing life together.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
And it looks like I may be getting the gigantic family I so deeply love. My father just received word that he lost his job with Shinsei bank. To be honest I am not entirely torn up over it. My father was miserable at Shinsei. Some of the higher ups gave up their souls long ago. So my parents and youngest sister will likely be moving back to Utah in one to two months. Hopefully my father will find another job, but in any case I will be happy to have my parents nearby.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
video gaming industries are culling studios at a furious clip.
Right now the market is so fragile that even successful studios can be doomed by a single botched launch. The MMO world in particular has doomed all newcomers from 2008 onward. One hundred percent fatality. Even AoC and WAR are pretty much in a protracted sink.
PC gaming has been hit by a piracy rate that has exceeded 90%. Console gaming, short of closed studios for the Wii, are tightening shop. The industry is so mercurial that the risk-takers that try less-than-mainstream titles are existing inches from the tracks.
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
quote: Midway Games Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Thursday because it doesn't expect to be able to pay back accelerated debt obligations stemming from media mogul Sumner Redstone's sale of a majority stake in the company.
Midway, best known for the "Mortal Kombat" video games, had about $281 million in debt and $167.5 million in assets as of Sept. 30, according to its bankruptcy filing.
In December, Redstone sold his majority stake in Midway -- an interest of about 87.2 percent -- to a company led by private investor Mark Thomas.
In a statement Thursday, Midway Chief Executive and President Matt Booty, who took the company's helm last month, called the bankruptcy filing a "difficult but necessary decision."
"We have been focused on realigning our operations and improving our execution, and this filing will relieve the immediate pressure from our creditors and provide us time for an orderly exploration of our strategic alternatives," he said in a statement.
The company announced in December it is laying off 25 percent of its work force, or about 180 people, and closing a studio in Austin, Texas, to cut costs.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
So video games can't be called "recession resistant?" They're still doing better than banks these days.
Also Midway made alot of money from Mortal Kombat in the 90s but it never felt like they put out much else afterward.
Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
quote:PC gaming has been hit by a piracy rate that has exceeded 90%.
Note that this is a completely unfounded statistic, for all that it's bandied around.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:Originally posted by TomDavidson:
quote:PC gaming has been hit by a piracy rate that has exceeded 90%.
Note that this is a completely unfounded statistic, for all that it's bandied around.
When you take data like this and combine it with the Various Intangibles and the Known Unknowns expected from markets like korea and china, the extrapolation of 'for every copy of X game sold, 9 copies are pirated' is hard to describe as completely unfounded. :/
Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
Well, heck, I wasn't including the Chinese and Korean markets, because they're just a bit illegitimate. I have trouble believing that anything is ever bought legally in those countries. So yeah. *laugh*
That said, almost every estimate I've ever seen of piracy basically counts the number of torrents and files out there being downloaded, a figure that does not correctly represent the number of lost sales. I know a number of pirates who'll download a game two times before they get around to buying it, and then -- two years later -- grab another pirated copy to avoid having to find the CD again the next time they want to reinstall it.
In other words, "9 copies are downloaded illegally for every copy sold" does not mean that nine people didn't pay for the game for every person that did.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
I'm thanking God every day that my husband was able to move into something that is much more recession-resistant. Even though our budget has suffered (he makes a good bit less now) I am still grateful it wasn't worse. We shut down our construction sub-contracting business...there was no money to be made there anymore. He moved into teaching at the junior college, and their particular program is sitting very pretty on a new grant and has increased enrollment so there is little danger of him losing his position. Of course, that's just part-time income and he still has his full-time job as a firefighter/paramedic. Rescue services is most definitely recession-proof. People don't stop having fires and medical emergencies in a recession.
As for me, well I picked a bad time to gradute from college with a teaching degree. They is talk our governor may sign a law that increases maximum class size so fewer teachers will be needed. That is a death knell for new teachers seeking jobs.
The only advantage I have is that I'm graduating with a bachelor's degree in May and will be highly qualified and certified because I've pursued a double major in English and secondary education. I am the only person graduating from my university with such a degree - most people get an undergrad major in their subject and get certified through a fifth year program - at the master's level. Every other English graduate from my university this year is graduating at the fifth year level. That means that we have the same certification, but because my degree is lower I'm cheaper to hire. The minimum salary for a master's degreed certified teacher is 6,000 a year more than mine.
So, if a principal needs to hire a new teacher and is looking at me and one of my classmates...he gets the same experience level and the same certification in me for 6 grand less a year. That is what I'm banking on. Of course, if they increase class size, I won't just be competing against my classmates, but also against teachers with experience. I can just hope a principal is willing to take a chance on me.
If not - if I don't get anything, I will sign up to be a long-term sub and a short term day to day sub. Not much money ($60-$75 a day) but better than nothing. That will also get me some contacts in the schools and some more stuff on my resume. If we can afford it, I'll start taking master's classes and apply for an assistantship. Then I can get my master's in English and that would open up the possibility of teaching junior college, with my hubby. They are hiring this year and expecting enrollment to increase.
So I have a plan...first to get a full-time secondary teaching job, if that falls through long-term sub, if that falls through day-to-day sub. If I get anything less than a permanent full-time job, I'll apply at the university and start taking classes. Once I've taken 12 hours I am eligible to take an assistantship and teach there...and that would bring in some money and pay for the rest of my master's. I've already been asked by faculty to do the assistantship and one actually requested me as her research assistant (you can either be a research assistant for a professor or you can teach a class), so I don't think I'd have trouble getting the position. I was told they never have enough applicants. It's not great news...I'd love to be able to say there are plenty of jobs and I'll definitely get one, but it's not terrible news either as I have some options and hubby's two jobs are still steady and reliable.
Posted by DDDaysh (Member # 9499) on :
I was remarkably lucky in the job I found earlier this year. We do work for tax-exempt bond issuers. With all the "bail outs" the government is planning, our business will be just fine.
Still, it is scary to look around at all the people losing their jobs and homes. I wonder if this will mean people will start building smaller homes again. Wouldn't it be remarkable if siblings started sharing bedrooms, and families had only one or two common rooms in a house so they actually had to SEE each other?
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:Originally posted by TomDavidson: In other words, "9 copies are downloaded illegally for every copy sold" does not mean that nine people didn't pay for the game for every person that did.
That would be a different figure. One that could likely be extrapolated crudely by looking at the decrease in gaming revenue vs. the increase in gaming popularity, I guess.
It's gotten so bad that some people analyzing Fallout 3 prior to release thought that it might make better business sense to release Fallout only on the Xbox, due to the fact that if it were available on the PC the total profit might ultimately decline due to piracy.
I asked my friends about this and they seemed to agree with this hypothesis: to a man each and every one of them had pirated F3 and had it only been available on the Xbox they would have probably "been forced to" actually buy a copy since they don't bother with console piracy.
Even if this didn't happen in the case of Fallout 3, we are rapidly approaching that sort of point.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
What decline? Video game revenue has increased every year.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Welp, the wife was sent home again after getting a grand total of 2.75 hours in at the office.
We're probably going to see about finding her another job as well, this is getting ridiculous.
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
So, anyone else here start crying whenever they watch the news?
Posted by advice for robots (Member # 2544) on :
I know I need to stop listening to the news in the car on my way home from work. By the time I get home I'm considerably more stressed than when I left work.
Posted by T:man (Member # 11614) on :
Mom gotta job!
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Welp, the wife was sent home again after getting a grand total of 2.75 hours in at the office.
We're probably going to see about finding her another job as well, this is getting ridiculous.
This really sucks. Dare I ask if anyone in your big family is still fully employed? Its hard enough to be unemployed when you have family support to fall back on but when hard times hit the whole extended family it even worse. My prayers are with you.
Please, talk to your Bishop. I know that asking for help from the church is probably the last thing you want to do but this is exactly the kind of thing church programs were created for.
Posted by mungagungadin (Member # 11746) on :
Well if any of you folks are from Utah, I'll have you know that your politicians have told my investors in no uncertain terms that their offer to invest in Utah's green infrastructure (to purchase bonds so that green energy and green jobs can grow in Utah) has been roundly rejected, two years running. Every so often (because I'm Mormon) I revive the issues and get another commitment letter and aim it at the Utah econ folks, who say to them again, no, we don't want any investors in Utah.
So, good ruck, and all I can say is, I tried.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:Originally posted by fugu13: What decline? Video game revenue has increased every year.
'video game revenue' includes consoles, portables, and cell phones. For the purpose of extrapolation we would have to look at the subsets of that industry most affected by piracy.
Non-MMO PC computer games, in specific. More popular now, less profitable now.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit:
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Welp, the wife was sent home again after getting a grand total of 2.75 hours in at the office.
We're probably going to see about finding her another job as well, this is getting ridiculous.
This really sucks. Dare I ask if anyone in your big family is still fully employed? Its hard enough to be unemployed when you have family support to fall back on but when hard times hit the whole extended family it even worse. My prayers are with you.
Please, talk to your Bishop. I know that asking for help from the church is probably the last thing you want to do but this is exactly the kind of thing church programs were created for.
Snap, now that I think about it I think only my older sister currently works full time. Only one of my brothers currently works pseudo part time, the other is currently looking for a job. About 6 months ago I had to get groceries using the bishops' storehouse and it really was a last resort, (alot of thing hit us at once.) I'm really trying to throttle my way into the government. At this point I'm even considering the armed forces. I'm really hoping by working hard, being careful with finances, and being smart that me and Tiffany will find our way out of this and get on less tenuous ground.
Thank you so much for your prayers. If all else fails of course I'll turn to the church, but I'd be remiss if I didn't hold out until it's absolutely necessary.
In better news Tiffany gets to work 8 hours tomorrow, and I may have found part time work at the dry cleaning business across the street. I was also contacted by a business looking for employees willing to relocate to Taiwan, there may be something there for me and Tiffany.
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
I've got a job interview on Friday, it's some sort of bone density scanner technician job. Here's hoping it provides sufficient income until I can take that hop skip and jump over to DC.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
Non-MMO PC computer game revenues, as a field, have pretty much only been positive. Aggregated yearly, as far as I know they have never, ever dropped.
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
From what I've been reading a major problem is that game budgets are so huge that a game has to sell big numbers in order to break even and there are very few real blockbusters. So revenues may increase, but costs are increasing as well and misjudging how your game will be received by the market can bankrupt your company.
Certainly. That calculus is not an indicator of piracy's impact on gaming revenues, though.
Posted by scifibum (Member # 7625) on :
munga, to be fair, they are rejecting your specific proposals, which is not equivalent to saying "we don't want any investment."
What would be interesting to know is whether proven technology is getting the same treatment. I mean, a power plant is up and running and producing cheap & clean & safe power, and all this can be shown, and still getting stonewalled? That'd be damning.
BlackBlade, is that in a medical setting or one of those mall outfits that sort of skirts the edge of practicing medicine?
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
quote:Originally posted by fugu13: Certainly. That calculus is not an indicator of piracy's impact on gaming revenues, though.
Right. I don't think piracy is as big of a factor as some publishers make it out to be.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by scifibum: BlackBlade, is that in a medical setting or one of those mall outfits that sort of skirts the edge of practicing medicine?
I'll let you know Friday.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Well the interviews went well. I had to go through three of them and it appears they liked me well enough. Lets hope the other candidate doesn't blow their pants off, as I could only manage their socks.
Looks like I was mistaken alittle about the job. I basically setup appointments with people who have had a quantitative electroencephalogram done and using a machine help them with their neuro-feedback therapy. I get paid on a commission basis, so lets hope I can setup plenty of clients from the get go.
I've been reading alot about neurofeedback therapy and it looks like it's quite controversial. General consensus seems to be that it does not necessarily help all people, and that placebo could account for much if not all of the perceived benefits. I need to keep researching, but I may accept this job if nothing else comes down the pipeline.
Posted by lem (Member # 6914) on :
I would be careful what you write. I would hate for a boss to see anything but support with such a competitive job market.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by lem: I would be careful what you write. I would hate for a boss to see anything but support with such a competitive job market.
I actually talked to her about her feelings regarding neurofeedback therapy and she said that she understands that general consensus is not for it, but in her personal experience she has seen results and believes in it.
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
quote:I basically setup appointments with people who have had a quantitative electroencephalogram done and using a machine help them with their neuro-feedback therapy. I get paid on a commission basis, so lets hope I can setup plenty of clients from the get go.
Interesting. Is the "QE" free to get people to sign up for the therapy? The fact that it is commission based suggests that this is the case. If so that could end up being a difficult job for you to do if you are skeptical of the value of the therapy.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by MattP:
quote:I basically setup appointments with people who have had a quantitative electroencephalogram done and using a machine help them with their neuro-feedback therapy. I get paid on a commission basis, so lets hope I can setup plenty of clients from the get go.
Interesting. Is the "QE" free to get people to sign up for the therapy? The fact that it is commission based suggests that this is the case. If so that could end up being a difficult job for you to do if you are skeptical of the value of the therapy.
No, these are patients who have already signed up for the therapy and have been referred to me for scheduling.
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
Some big glosses, particularly over what sub-prime has meant, and why banks are in a crunch (not because they had a bunch of CDOs they hadn't yet sold off, as the video suggests), and to the fungibility of mortgages (prime mortgages are being sold at premiums), but the video's pretty good overall at communicating one small slice of the credit situation. Housing was just a trigger, there are a number of other issues at hand.
Posted by Tstorm (Member # 1871) on :
We tend to think of education as a field that's recession-proof. It is, relatively speaking. However, in the great state of Kansas, we're having to make cuts, and if forecasts materialize close to expectations, then they won't be insignificant. I'm having trouble keeping track of secondary education, as I'm more in tune with higher education, where I'm employed.
The president of our college told us that for next year, he won't be seeking any raises for administration or staff (full disclaimer: I am staff). Combined with other factors, he says that should allow us to scrape by without eliminating any positions. That was his stated goal at the beginning of this fiasco, and I'll give him props for apparently meeting it. It doesn't bother me in the slightest, to take a little cost-of-living/inflation hit so that someone else doesn't lose their job.
I'm absolutely thrilled at the timing my boss had, in asking for a raise for our office last year. His timing was impeccable. Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Oh, I never assumed education was recession-proof. Tenured faculty have little to worry about, but everyone else involved in education always has to worry about their jobs.
My hope is that as someone certified and highly qualified at the bachelor's degree level, I will be a cheaper alternative than people who are graduating certified at the master's level. But, I don't for a moment think getting a job is a slam dunk. I am prepared to sub next year, or take a job as an instructional aide if need be. Much less money than a classroom teacher position, but better than what I have now, which is nothing.
Posted by Tstorm (Member # 1871) on :
Oh, my post wasn't aimed at you, Belle, sorry. I was just generalizing...
I read your post, and I think your reasoning sounds good. I hope you have good luck with your job hunt. Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
Maybe this is just based on who I tend to associate with, but it seems like teachers are getting hit hard. A lot of my friends have been laid off and may be rehired (no guarantee), but even the ones laid off and rehired are getting hurt. Because of the break, they are considered new hires- so they accumulate vacation time at the lowest level. Also, this means that they don't have 12 months of continuous work, so no maternity leave. I have a pregnant friend who was not amused.
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
quote:Originally posted by scholarette: Maybe this is just based on who I tend to associate with, but it seems like teachers are getting hit hard.
This has been my observation too. The teachers' union in my area offer to forgo their annual raise in order to prevent layoffs.
[ Also, good luck on the hunt, Belle. The world always needs more teachers (: ]
--j_k
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
Here in Nevada there is talk of cutting teachers salaries by 6%.
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
One of my friends who was told 30% chance of being rehired is really upset because right now her school is short two teachers in her department. They are struggling to get by severely understaffed and they are still laying people off. How many kids can you shove in a classroom (and she does science labs, so the shoving more and more kids is even worse)? Of course, when my husband taught, there was no seating chart. The incentive for being early was getting a desk. When they ran out of desks, they had a few chairs and then you just got to sit on the floor.
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
I gotta stop following my stocks on CNBC. It's making me depressed.
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
Yep
Posted by King of Men (Member # 6684) on :
quote:Originally posted by scholarette: So, anyone else here start crying whenever they watch the news?
Start? It seems to follow from this that natural disasters in Asia and war in the Middle East doesn't make you cry, but a bunch of wealthy Americans losing their jobs and having to go on welfare fo some months does. Are you sure you've got your priorities straight?
Posted by scifibum (Member # 7625) on :
quote:Originally posted by King of Men:
quote:Originally posted by scholarette: So, anyone else here start crying whenever they watch the news?
Start? It seems to follow from this that natural disasters in Asia and war in the Middle East doesn't make you cry, but a bunch of wealthy Americans losing their jobs and having to go on welfare fo some months does. Are you sure you've got your priorities straight?
1.) It only follows if you infer things not said.
2.) Don't be a jerk. Everyone has selective empathy.
Edit: not that selective empathy is necessarily involved, but it seemed to be what you were criticizing.
Posted by Godric 2.0 (Member # 11443) on :
quote:Originally posted by King of Men:
quote:Originally posted by scholarette: So, anyone else here start crying whenever they watch the news?
Start? It seems to follow from this that natural disasters in Asia and war in the Middle East doesn't make you cry, but a bunch of wealthy Americans losing their jobs and having to go on welfare fo some months does. Are you sure you've got your priorities straight?
I haven't been crying over anything (yet), but I think there is some distinction to be made between natural disasters and the current economic crisis in that the natural disasters are not man-made. Seeing the damage in lives and property from a tsunami is certainly heart-wrenching, but it's depressing and aggravating on a different level when you look at job loss spiraling from the reckless decisions made by business executives who make hundreds of thousands or millions a year and have had some of the best education money can buy. Shouldn't they have been more responsible? Shouldn't they have known better?
As for war in the middle east... Well, as tragic as it is, it seems to me to be somewhat a given. I'm not unsympathetic to the lives it effects, but honestly, most of the time it feels like waking up to a rainy day (they're unpleasant to be out in, but they just happen once in awhile). In another way, it is more similar in that it's a man made mess, but since I don't have any direct contact with it, and I do with the American economy, I'm more inclined to spend my time contemplating our financial state than I am conflicts across the globe.
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
Sorry, I do get more upset over the grim financial outlook for my family then I do for just about anything else. My husband is unemployed, so reading about how no one is hiring and not to expect things to change for 6 months to a year is scary and upsetting. So, it isn't that some unknown American lost his job and is on welfare, it is how am I personally going to survive this.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by scholarette: Sorry, I do get more upset over the grim financial outlook for my family then I do for just about anything else. My husband is unemployed, so reading about how no one is hiring and not to expect things to change for 6 months to a year is scary and upsetting. So, it isn't that some unknown American lost his job and is on welfare, it is how am I personally going to survive this.
Best of fortunes to your husband scholarette. Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
Thanks! Posted by DDDaysh (Member # 9499) on :
Yikes! I'm sorry you're having such a rough time. Have you guys considered moving? There are some states doing better than others.
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
We are stuck here until I finish school (either this winter or spring 2010). So, that limits our ability to move and potential jobs. On the plus side, at least as a student, I can get cheap student loans.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Well I still don't have a job yet, but Tiffany is back up to full time and all this extra time has compelled me to get my butt back in the gym.
Who says a recession has to be all bad?
Posted by MattP (Member # 10495) on :
quote:all this extra time has compelled me to get my butt back in the gym.
You also seem to be playing the Xbox a bit more. Posted by lobo (Member # 1761) on :
I see hiring opportunities all over the place. Granted most are in grocery stores or fast food, but I would think any job is better than none...
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by MattP:
quote:all this extra time has compelled me to get my butt back in the gym.
You also seem to be playing the Xbox a bit more.
Nah, that's just me running Netflix while I browse the internet for jobs. BTW how would YOU know unless you were on Xbox yourself!?
-----
In other news I start training for my new job as a Neurofeedback Therapy Technician tomorrow! I sure hope this doctor has the patient base to provide me with at least 20-25 hours of work a week. To new jobs in careers heretofore unknown!
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Well....turns out today was actually a third interview to see if I could handle the work involved and if I could relate well to the patients. Needless to say I was terrified and yet I managed to stay cool and collected the whole time. I found the patients to be wonderful people, and I think I made a good impression demonstrating technical skill, befriending the patients, and getting along with the staff. It turns out that out of upwards of thirty applicants they narrowed it down to me and one other person. The guy interviewing me could not say if I had the job or not but he said he felt like I did a very good job. I hope he wasn't trying to put me down gently but they are supposed to call me in the next few days either way.
I'll just have to keep looking for other jobs so I don't stress out in the meantime. Here's hoping they call back with good news. Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
I know this thread has felt a little too saturated with my posts, something I hope won't always be the case, but I just received word that I beat out the other candidate and am now employed!
I'm so glad everything worked out, I hope I can figure out the nuances of this position as fast as possible so that I can start supporting my sorry butt again.
Woot for finding a job in this tough time!
Posted by Tammy (Member # 4119) on :
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote: Woot for finding a job in this tough time!
[/QB]
Congratulations!! Posted by AvidReader (Member # 6007) on :
Since this thread is back up, does anyone know when we're supposed to get to the bottom of the drop in the stock market? Is it going to take the 18 to 24 months the rest of the economy is supposed to take?
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
No, it should begin rising before then. Many parts of the economy (jobs, et cetera) lag the stock market and the return to growth in GDP.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
New plan to buy up troubled assets and to package them together hopefully creating a market for them. Not sure how I feel about this, I need to talk to some people first.
But now, off to work, I'm glad to be a cog in the machine of capitalism again.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
I attend another job fair on Friday. Just the typical round of spring education job fairs...no one is really posting openings for next year yet. March is a bit early for that yet. But, should see action picking up a bit in April, with the real hiring push coming in May, June and July.
Being patient is hard! I want someone to hire me RIGHT NOW and tell me that I'll have a classroom next fall. Posted by Juxtapose (Member # 8837) on :
I've been working in a coffee shop for about two years now. Six months ago, I was promoted to store manager. After a 90 day probation period, I applied for the health care package that all the store managers get. It went into effect February.
Last week, I was told all that the company could no longer afford the coverage, and that they were dropping the whole thing. The upside is that I'm young and healthy and except for my vision, I can pretty much get by without regular check-ups.
Time to go shopping for a good catastrophic plan.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
quote:Originally posted by Juxtapose: I've been working in a coffee shop for about two years now. Six months ago, I was promoted to store manager. After a 90 day probation period, I applied for the health care package that all the store managers get. It went into effect February.
Last week, I was told all that the company could no longer afford the coverage, and that they were dropping the whole thing. The upside is that I'm young and healthy and except for my vision, I can pretty much get by without regular check-ups.
Time to go shopping for a good catastrophic plan.
Since the insurance my wife can get through her company really sucks, and I am currently a private contractor, I basically pray that nothing serious happens to either of us until I can finally get this State Department gig off the runway.
My grandfather is an insurance broker and according to him he does not even try to seek new customers, but instead spends all his time trying to retain his current base as everyone is either downgrading or suspending service.
Posted by Juxtapose (Member # 8837) on :
I don't know what the insurance situation is like in Utah, BB, but there are decent catastrophic plans I've been looking at here in WA state that run from fifty to eighty bucks a month. I'm not certain about your situation, but that isn't budget breaking for me. If something awful were to happen to me, having one of those plans could be the difference between paying a few thousand dollars and paying a few dozen thousand dollars. It might be worth looking into, if you haven't already.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Well I spoke with my boss today and apparently there aren't enough new clients coming in that they can afford to keep me. I can work for two more weeks, while I look for another job, and then buh-bye. So it's back to the unemployment line, flooding the country with my resume, badgering contacts for leads, and thinking about everything in terms of dollar amounts.
I'm so sick of doing this, I just want to have a job that I keep for at least five years. I'm confident I'll find something better, I always am, but I'd also rather not do this song and dance again. Of course I signed a 12 month contract a month ago with my apartment complex, so I might have to try to sell my contract if I don't find a new job right away.
I don't want to say I'm too good to work fast food or as a janitor, but in a sense, I just can't work those sorts of jobs anymore and pay all the bills that need to be paid.
Maybe I'll go back to school and take out a bunch of student loans and ride out the recession. I've got some ideas for where to start looking for jobs, but ideally I was going to work as a neurofeedback/QEEG technician until I figured something else out. Now I'll likely figure something else out until I can figure out what I was supposed to figure out in the first place.
Fun huh?
[ November 12, 2009, 09:32 AM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
I am so sorry BB. I hope something great works out for you soon. I keep thinking, this recession can't last forever.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
I'm sorry, BB. That sucks.
Good luck!
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
That sucks, I hope it works out for you. I did the college thing and I graduate as an LPN in 4 weeks, but now I am trying to decide if I can afford to go for my RN right away. I don't think I can, as I have prerequisites to do first, and because I am not in a degree program while doing them I don't qualify for loans.
I'll be looking for LPN jobs soon, I suspect. Posted by malanthrop (Member # 11992) on :
Of course the Dept of Workforce Services increased it's staff by 150% last year. Plenty of government employees there to help you find private sector jobs who pay taxes for the government workers. The government is hiring like gangbusters as part of the stimulus plan. Problem is none of those govt employees stimulate anything, their pay comes from taxing the private sector. Go to USAJOBS.COM...that's the future of the US economy. The foundation is getting thin.
Has anyone ever stopped and considered the fact that limiting executive compensation reduced the balance of the treasury? It makes good political sense to severely restrict the salaries of executives from companies that received bailout money but fiscally it is the opposite. The bailout money has already been spent. Reducing executive compensation returns none of that money. In fact, returns even less....slash their pay by 90% and get 90% less back in taxes. Makes as much sense as paying income tax on unemployment and social security benefits. Anyone like to wager which party started taxing social security and unemployment payments?
For most, perception is reality. If you really cared about the defecit, you would have been opposed to executive pay cuts for bailout recipients. They pay the bulk of the taxes in this country. 50 cents of every dollar the executives got would go directly back to the treasury and the company would still owe the entire principle balance. Instead, they get tax deferred stock that is a bargain. When the market rebounds and the stocks quadruple in value, the tax payers get the short end of the stick. Rock bottom tax deferred stock is more valuable than a high salary that is going to be taxed at near 50%.
[ November 12, 2009, 01:01 AM: Message edited by: malanthrop ]
Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
quote:For most, perception is reality.
I don't think you can fairly extrapolate from your own experience to the rest of the population, mal.
Posted by katharina (Member # 827) on :
Black Blade, what do you do? You're in Salt Lake, right?
If you are willing to work with your hands and mostly use your brain to make sure your hands are doing the right things, Pilkington Metal Finishing is hiring. The wages are standard laborer wages, but they are hiring and they have great benefits and really good health insurance of which the company pays 80% of the premium, much higher than standard. (This explains at least in part why the wages aren't higher.)
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
katharina: I live in Provo, but I'm not opposed to working in Salt Lake. Thanks for the suggestion, I'll give it a look see.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
So I'm applying for work as a substitute teacher and a teacher's assistant for now. Hopefully I can do that until I find something more substantial or until I go to grad school.
Working part time and going back to school suddenly seems so appealing.
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