I'm not sure how many of you have heard about the influenza outbreak in Mexico City . I am just finishing my first year of medical school (a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing) including a course in infectious disease, so I find this fascinating.
Influenza is an interesting virus, it is constantly changing its virus just a little bit, which is why you can be reinfected year after year, and you need a new flu shot each year (this is called epigenic drift). But occasionally two strains of simultaneously infect the same host, then they swap large chunks of genes around and become effectively a whole new type of flu (this is called epigenic shift). Often times this happens in pigs or birds, but even more occasionally it jumps to people. The bird flu has done this, but it failed in the final step, becoming effective at infecting other people, people who never come in contact with birds at all. This new swine flu looks like it has crossed that final barrier.
As cited in the article above, there are 81 deaths already in Mexico. The CDC reports several confirmed cases in California and two more in Texas. In the cases in California there is at least one case of people who have not recently been to Mexico, or in contact with anyone who has traveled to Mexico. Furthermore there are two confirmed cases in Kansas, and eight unconfirmed ones in New York ( according to Yahoo news ). A different school group from New Zealand may be the first documented intercontinental cases.
The CDC has noted that disease in America has mostly been seen as a 'self-limiting' disease, however it can cause pneumonia and death. Because of the nature of the illness, many people may never see a doctor to be formally diagnosed, and most doctors won't waste time and money doing a viral culture on an otherwise healthy person without a suspicion of exposure. This means that there may be more undiagnosed cases than not to spread the disease. Most vulnerable populations are vaccinated against the flu, but unfortunately this is a completely different strain from the one vaccines were made against. This means we are at greater risk of a pandemic the likes of which we have not seen for a while. Fortunately the CDC has discovered that this virus is still susceptible to anti-virals like Tamiflu, so we have some recourse. But as with any new strain a large number of people are susceptible, and our supply may be taxed if this is not controlled.
I guess this is less of a discussion prompt than an informatory essay, but I for one am concerned that this has cropped so close to home. Most of the recent influenza pandemics have begun in Asia which has given America sufficient time to create and mass produce vaccines before it hit in force. This time the tables are turned and it has hit us before we have had time to prepare. I'm also curious to see what the response is, particularly in states like California and Texas where it seems to be spreading endemically (not direct transplants like those from New Zealand or New York). With all luck we'll be able to treat this without letting it get out of control. The CDC's official advice is for people with 'febrile' illnesses to stay home, and for everyone else to wash their hands.
Posted by AvidReader (Member # 6007) on :
We just did disaster training at work with a flu pandemic as the problem. I had laughed about it at the time since the bird flu had essentially seemed like food poisoning. Now I feel a little bad for assuming it was so silly.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
Yeah . . . the 1918 flu pandemic killed twenty to forty million people. And the world was a lot less dense and a lot less connected than it is today. If this thing mutates into a more virulent form, even with optimal government response, expect millions to hundreds of millions of deaths. Of course, here in the US we might escape with just thousands to tens of thousands of deaths, but populations in India and China would be devastated.
Not that such a scenario is the most likely at the moment; more likely is that it doesn't mutate into a more virulent form anywhere ready to spread.
Posted by Darth_Mauve (Member # 4709) on :
Poor Mexico. we were told to stay away during spring break for violence reasons. They should have clarified, violently ill reasons.
Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :
quote:Originally posted by fugu13: Yeah . . . the 1918 flu pandemic killed twenty to forty million people.
And now, just as in 1918, the concerning strain of influenza seems to be striking young, otherwise healthy people in disproportionate numbers -- not just the very young and old, or those with weakened immune systems otherwise.
I don't think we knew why then, and I don't think we've figured out why now yet, either.
Posted by Jhai (Member # 5633) on :
Doesn't seem to be enough strong evidence to fully prove the CytokineStormexplanation, but still interesting enough to consider.
[ April 26, 2009, 02:35 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Eaquae Legit (Member # 3063) on :
Confirmed cases on both coasts of Canada. They're saying the cases are mild, but considering I'd never even heard of this flu threat before yesterday and now it's spreading through my newsfeeds pretty quickly, I'm a little worried. Not a whole lot, but some.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
I had to deal with the SARS outbreak in Taiwan back in 2003, it was absolutely miserable. I really hope damage can be controlled as much as possible, this sort of thing is very deadly.
Posted by Armoth (Member # 4752) on :
quote:Originally posted by Eaquae Legit: Confirmed cases on both coasts of Canada. They're saying the cases are mild, but considering I'd never even heard of this flu threat before yesterday and now it's spreading through my newsfeeds pretty quickly, I'm a little worried. Not a whole lot, but some.
I'm pretty worried too. I hate what these kinda things do to your fear systems.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:Because of the nature of the illness, many people may never see a doctor to be formally diagnosed
Another terrible consequence of our terrible health care system: enhanced vulnerability to epidemic/pandemic, because there's tens of millions of people who won't go to a doctor in time because they do not feel like they are financially in a position to do so.
Posted by HollowEarth (Member # 2586) on :
Uh, no. That statement is about the fact that in general, no one goes to the doctor with just the flu, since there really isn't anything that they can do for you.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
You are supposed to go to the doctor if you have the flu and a certain number of symptoms remain too severe for too long. Fever and dehydration are issues that should be dealt with.
In addition, if it turns out we're dealing with a disease that makes your own immune system go berserk, similar to the 1918 influenza, then those thresholds would find themselves crossed in plenty of young people with strong immune systems that are the most likely not to be insured in this country.
And I don't know how true that general statement is. Colds and flus account for more doctor visits than any other reason.
Posted by T:man (Member # 11614) on :
quote:Originally posted by HollowEarth: Uh, no. That statement is about the fact that in general, no one goes to the doctor with just the flu, since there really isn't anything that they can do for you.
There are a couple treatments that seem to be doing quite well. (Relenza and Tamiflu)
Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :
quote:Originally posted by aspectre: Doesn't seem to be enough strong evidence to fully prove the CytokineStormexplanation, but still interesting enough to consider.
Yes, fascinating! Thanks for the links.
quote:Originally posted by T:man:
quote:Originally posted by HollowEarth: ...since there really isn't anything that they can do for you.
There are a couple treatments that seem to be doing quite well. (Relenza and Tamiflu)
Indeed. If there is a pandemic, then early treatment (and these antivirals have to be started in the first few days of symptoms, not a week later) will be key to prevent spread. Unless free public health service for this is set up -- and that would take a lot of money and organization -- then we would be relying on under/uninsured people to pay out-of-pocket, and we would rely on them to be willing to do so before they may be convinced they need to do so for their own safety.
It really does become a public health issue as much as private, as private decisions might well have major public fallout.
Posted by Audeo (Member # 5130) on :
I would say that most people don't go to the doctor on day one of their symptoms. I for one would be more likely to down some sudafed and go to work (or school), and I think a lot of other people feel the same. If the symptoms persist I might go to the doctor, but not always.
Tamiflu can help, but it is not often prescribed because most viral infections go away on their own without treatment, and it only works against type A influenza (like this one), type B influenza and the dozen or so other viruses that cause similar symptoms are not susceptible.
Of course part of it is simply public awareness. If people know that this flu is around, hopefully they'll be more likely to seek a doctor's advice. When they get there the doctor is more likely to do a viral culture, or even to prescribe something like Tamiflu.
Posted by CaySedai (Member # 6459) on :
There are fascinating stories of the 1918 flu pandemic at the PandemicFlu.gov site. I was looking for information on steps taken at that time - some theaters and other public places were closed, it was recommended that churches not meet or hold very short meetings, in Great Britain they closed elementary schools. More links: http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/ http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/ Timeline (I found it particularly interesting that in November 1918 San Francisco officials relaxed the requirement for people to wear face masks in public and in December, 5,000 new cases were reported.)
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Thing is, even if you WANTED to go to your doctor on the first day or so of symptoms, the chances you could even get in to see him/her are pretty remote. Unless you want to go to an urgent care facility or an emergency room, and if there is fear of a pandemic, that's the LAST place you would want to go.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
quote:...Mexico...Health Minister...said on Sunday, "The most recent reports we have are of 1,614 cases, with 103 deaths, and we still have around 400 patients in hospital,"...explaining that around two-thirds of the sick patients had recovered...
Considering flu severity requiring at least a 31.5% hospitalization rate, this appears to be a particularly nasty outbreak with a steady* ~6.4% death rate (amongst those presumed to have become infected) exceeding that of the 1918Pandemic. On a more amusing (though twisted) note... ...so who here is gonna be jam-packing those theaters for the Wolverine and StarTrek opening weekends?
* Since I first noticed the numbers coming out
[ April 27, 2009, 05:11 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Just remember, there is a difference between concern and hysteria.
You can't get it just from Mexicans, or from eating properly cooked pork........and yes, I actually heard both of those comments yesterday.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Also realize that during every pandemic there are several phenomena that recur:
1) Wild rumors that so-and-so deliberately caused the outbreak. In this case it will be Al Quaeda or the Taliban or .... Vladmir Putin... it will be anyone some people recognize as an enemy. Some right wing nutjobs will say Obama did it to drive home his socialized medicine agenda, and some left wing nutjobs will say Bush did it to discredit Obama's presidency, or whatever. Realize when you hear these sorts of rumors that none of them are true. Flu pandemics happen a few times a century throughout recorded human history. They just happen. Nobody has to start them.
2) Some sick people will deliberately spread the disease. They figure if they're gonna die they will take others with them. It's just a human failing, to lash out and blame others for our misfortunes, and try to get some company in our misery.
3) Some people will panic and start buying up all the groceries on the shelves, etc. It's actually a good idea to have food and water and other supplies to last up to six weeks during a bad flu epidemic. But it's much wiser to stock up gradually over time, buying a few things for your food storage on every visit to the grocery store all year round. Also, fill every empty 2 liter soda bottle, or every gallon water bottle or Gatorade bottle from the tap and put it in the basement or under your bed or somewhere out of the way. This way you can collect up a good water storage to last if anything bad happens. Then you won't be desperately trying to purchase food off empty grocery shelves in the event of an emergency.
3) Waves of flu pandemics last 3 to 4 weeks each. Then they subside and eventually another wave will usually come. The second wave can be the most deadly, for poorly understood reasons. During the 3 to 4 weeks, many people will be out sick, and many others will be home caring for them. So lots of businesses will be closed and many utilities will quit working. Also, governments may restrict travel and transport, so grocery store shelves might get pretty bare. That's why it's good to be prepared to fend for yourself for six weeks or so. Food and water storage will give you peace of mind.
4) If this one turns out to be self limiting, and society's systems don't break down, then it can still function as an excellent drill. Use it as motivation to get your food and water storage in order, get your cash reserves built up, etc. so that you will be ready for the real thing when it hits.
5) This is the farthest thing from being alarmist. If we are prepared, then there's never any cause for alarm. Don't panic. Make wise choices. Be prepared. If we have what we need and what our family needs, then we're much more able to reach out and help others. Be generous with neighbors who are less prepared than you.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Pretty much. I doubt this will kill millions, but that's the point....you don't KNOW it will until it;s too late.
Also, face masks don't really help at all. Unless you change them every 10 min or so they actually make things worse....they become a resouvoir for bacteria and can HELP spread things FASTER. People wearing them are NOT safer, mostly.
Posted by Jhai (Member # 5633) on :
xkcd's take. I particularly like the alt-text advice.
Posted by sarcasticmuppet (Member # 5035) on :
"How long until the Swine flu reaches me in Madagasgar?"
LOL! [/xkcd love]
Posted by ricree101 (Member # 7749) on :
quote:Originally posted by sarcasticmuppet: "How long until the Swine flu reaches me in Madagasgar?"
LOL! [/xkcd love]
I didn't get that one.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Put it in the context that the EU is recommending a boycott of travel to Mexico and the US, yet is not recommending that Americans and Mexicans be barred from entering Europe. Within the reality of globalization, is there any place remote enough to escape to when the travel-time barrier to the spread of contagion has been reduced from weeks or months to hours* or days?
* Or even minutes ala the meltdown of the global financial markets.
Posted by Bella Bee (Member # 7027) on :
It's pointless to ban people flying from the Americas anyway, since there are already confimed cases of swine flu in passengers flying into Spain and the UK.
Considering all the people they must have come in contact with on the flights and airports etc, it's pretty obvious that the infection has already reached Europe.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
aspectre: yes. reducing the avenues the disease has for spread can reduce the increases in cases per unit of time dramatically. And, since the race against a pandemic is effectively a race against creation and batch synthesis of an effective treatment, even days can make a huge difference in total survivors.
If you're interested in knowing more, check out Vespignani's work on modeling pandemics.
And they don't need to ban travelers from those locations, just test them.
Posted by sarcasticmuppet (Member # 5035) on :
I caught it as a reference to the Pandemic flash game. Madagasgar is impossible to infect.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Mass testing of passengers relies on body heat scanners. The problem being a ~3day time-frame in which people are infected yet show no symptoms, and a ~1day time frame in which they can infect others before they start showing symptoms. I mean if they felt sick in the first place, they'd be unlikely* to board a long-distance flight.
* Yeah, I know there are narcissistic jerks who don't care abour whether they harm others. But even most of them don't want to add the misery of being confined in a chair for hours at a stretch to their own already existing misery of feeling ill.
[ April 27, 2009, 03:13 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by maui babe (Member # 1894) on :
quote:Originally posted by Belle: Thing is, even if you WANTED to go to your doctor on the first day or so of symptoms, the chances you could even get in to see him/her are pretty remote. Unless you want to go to an urgent care facility or an emergency room, and if there is fear of a pandemic, that's the LAST place you would want to go.
Is this the case for any/many of you? I've lived in a dozen states in every region of the country. For the last 20+ years I've lived in areas that were officially under-served medically. I've been covered by military insurance, HMO, PPOs and been uninsured, and I've never EVER had a problem getting a same day appointment with my physician for an acute illness. For routine exams, yes, but never if I had an urgent need.
Posted by T:man (Member # 11614) on :
quote:Originally posted by sarcasticmuppet: I caught it as a reference to the Pandemic flash game. Madagasgar is impossible to infect.
I usually start in Madagascar makes it easy to infect the world Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
quote:Originally posted by Kwea: Pretty much. I doubt this will kill millions, but that's the point....you don't KNOW it will until it;s too late.
Also, face masks don't really help at all. Unless you change them every 10 min or so they actually make things worse....they become a resouvoir for bacteria and can HELP spread things FASTER. People wearing them are NOT safer, mostly.
I was under the impression that the effectiveness of face masks depended entirely on the mask's quality and rated ability to filter out certain things. Not all masks are the same, and most of those mass produced ones aren't going to do anything at all, but the expensive well made ones, I've read, actually do serve a purpose, but relatively few people actually purchase ones that are worthwhile.
Posted by sarcasticmuppet (Member # 5035) on :
quote:Originally posted by T:man:
quote:Originally posted by sarcasticmuppet: I caught it as a reference to the Pandemic flash game. Madagasgar is impossible to infect.
I usually start in Madagascar makes it easy to infect the world
I found that even harder. All Madagascar has is one shipyard. Everyone else closes their borders before you can even think about infecting them. Even if you have no symptoms, and no deaths.
Posted by Wendybird (Member # 84) on :
What makes it extremely difficult to contain any illness is the very fact that people will go to work/school/store etc even when they are sick. I've been guilty of it too. But we would decrease things substantially if sick people would just stay home.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
What intrigues me is why it seems that this new swine flu strain originated in Mexico. Many new diseases we hear about appear to originate in China, which is not so surprising because it is the single largest human population reservoir.
Maybe for the time being, the drug cartels will call a truce in their weeks-long shooting war with the Mexican police.
Posted by Armoth (Member # 4752) on :
Mexico does not have it easy these days. Drug wars, swine flu, and an earthquake today...
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:Originally posted by ricree101:
quote:Originally posted by sarcasticmuppet: "How long until the Swine flu reaches me in Madagasgar?"
LOL! [/xkcd love]
I didn't get that one.
Pandemic II is a popular internet flash game where the objective is to create and modify your own custom disease in one of three classes (viral, bacterial, or parasitic) in order to try to wipe out the human race with it.
In this simulation, madagascar is both paranoid and well-situated to lock itself away from disease. Basically the only way to infect it is to have a lucky ship-docking with infected rats or people on the island. It also has to happen early, because often when the disease becomes visible on the world scale, Madagascar will close its ports and wall up. Success in Pandemic II often relies on whether or not you can spread the infection on to the island.
This led to many jokes about "President Madagascar," the world's most nervous and paranoid head of state, shutting down everything at the first sign of someone coughing in Brazil.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
Ah, sure enough, the first time I kicked up the game in a while and look what happens.
quote:Originally posted by Kwea: Pretty much. I doubt this will kill millions, but that's the point....you don't KNOW it will until it;s too late.
Also, face masks don't really help at all. Unless you change them every 10 min or so they actually make things worse....they become a resouvoir for bacteria and can HELP spread things FASTER. People wearing them are NOT safer, mostly.
I was under the impression that the effectiveness of face masks depended entirely on the mask's quality and rated ability to filter out certain things. Not all masks are the same, and most of those mass produced ones aren't going to do anything at all, but the expensive well made ones, I've read, actually do serve a purpose, but relatively few people actually purchase ones that are worthwhile.
I was addressing the ones most people were wearing. There are different quality ones, but even those aren't good after an hour or so.
Unless you want to spring for your own RACAL it's pretty much worthless.
Posted by Audeo (Member # 5130) on :
quote: What intrigues me is why it seems that this new swine flu strain originated in Mexico. Many new diseases we hear about appear to originate in China, which is not so surprising because it is the single largest human population reservoir.
It is true that most influenza in recent years have originated in Asia. The reason for that is pretty simple; open air markets that sell (among other things) live poultry. Ask yourself when the last time you picked up a living duck, chicken or pig and took it home to slaughter and cook. That being said many people thought the avian flu was in danger of being pandemic. It is much more lethal than this new swine flu, but it is much less easily spread between people. Instead most people who got sick from it spent a lot of time around poultry and got it directly from them.
However the swine flu has been in the North American (including the US) pig population for years. The CDC has had it as a reportable human illness since 2007. Since the average American (or Mexican for that matter) don't habitually spend time living with pigs (as Asians commonly cohabitate with poultry) it hasn't very commonly spread to humans. However the Spanish flu of 1918 also originated in America (Kansas to be precise) from Americans being infected from pigs. So it's not unprecedented for flu to come from North America, it's just less likely due to a cultural difference in how we process and grow meat animals. This new strain seems to have the advantage of being more easily transmissable between humans than the avian flu, but at least it's less deadly so far.
Posted by FlyingCow (Member # 2150) on :
::rolls eyes:: My religion says you can't eat pig. Not talk about it.
Apparently your religion isn't the same as his (Judaism).
Posted by Tstorm (Member # 1871) on :
quote:However the Spanish flu of 1918 also originated in America (Kansas to be precise) from Americans being infected from pigs.
I've heard this a couple of times. Since I'm not in possession of the details, perhaps someone could share them with all of us...
1. Was Kansas the original point of dispersal? In other words, did an infected individual spread the disease via close proximity to many other people at an army base?
Or
2. Was Kansas the place where the disease made the jump from pigs to people? I'm thinking this is pretty difficult to prove, given medical knowledge of the early 20th century.
It seems a lot of people have recently read a book on the subject of the 1918 flu pandemic, or something...
Posted by scholarette (Member # 11540) on :
My vague memory of 1918 flu info was that it was originally believed to be swine but genetic analysis showed it was bird.
Posted by Tstorm (Member # 1871) on :
See, now that's the second time I've heard that, too. Separating the dis from the information will be a challenge during this event, I can tell... Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Yes, they dug up the body of a girl buried under permafrost in Alaska who died of the 1918 flu. They were able to get the flu from her lungs and sequence it. It's definitely a mutated bird flu. The interesting thing was that assortation didn't create the human-to-human transmissible form of the 1918 flu, something that scientists are very scared about with our H5N1 avian flu today, it was definitely mutations.
Posted by Armoth (Member # 4752) on :
::rolls eyes:: My religion says you can't eat pig. Not talk about it.
Apparently your religion isn't the same as his (Judaism).
My friend's Dad always used to say: "Don't confuse Jews with Judaism."
Posted by Audeo (Member # 5130) on :
Caysedai linked to the PBS site which includes a timeline. The first thing on the timeline is
quote: At Fort Riley, Kansas, an Army private reports to the camp hospital just before breakfast on March 11 complaining of fever, sore throat, and headache. He was quickly followed by another soldier with similar complaints. By noon, the camp's hospital had dealt with over 100 ill soldiers. By week's end that number jumped to 500.
So Kansas is the where the first case was identified. If it came from anywhere before that we don't know, but many of the new recruits were coming directly from family farms where they would have been exposed regularly to both poultry and livestock. The timeline shows pretty well how the disease was spread throughout the world.
Posted by AvidReader (Member # 6007) on :
quote: I've never EVER had a problem getting a same day appointment with my physician for an acute illness.
Last time I had a bad sinus infection, I got an appointment three days from the day I called. Then the doctor was sick and they rescheduled me for a month from then. I probably should have thrown a bigger fit and tried to get them to get me in with one of the other doctors, but I canceled the appointment. It did eventually go away on its own.
Posted by FlyingCow (Member # 2150) on :
quote:However, a 2005 survey by the Commonwealth Fund of sick adults in six nations found that only 47% of U.S. patients could get a same- or next-day appointment for a medical problem, worse than every other country except Canada.
That always happens to me in Japan, I kill the entire world except for those in japan XD
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
quote:...149...The latest death toll...announced...by Health Secretary...Córdova, who said that more than half of the 1,995 people admitted to hospitals...have been treated and released, while 776 remain hospitalized.
quote:One ray of good news is that the outbreak may be leveling off in Mexico...Mexican Health Minister...Cordova said that the number of new cases...had declined from 141 on Saturday to 119 on Sunday and 110 Monday.
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
A local high school had students on a trip to Mexico, and today sent home eight of them who had symptoms. The symptoms are more like allergy symptoms, and probably have much more to do with pollen than with swine flu, but at least they are being cautious. Yet, I suspect it's more about placating anxious parents who don't want their kids to go to school with people who have just gotten back from Mexico.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
"The Los Angeles County coroner's office on Tuesday was investigating the recent deaths of two men for links to swine flu. If confirmed, the cases would be the first swine flu deaths in the United States."
"The CDC today confirmed 64 infections in five US states, although Indiana later reported its own case. Five of the patients were now in hospital, Mr Besser said - three in California and two in Texas. Their ages ranged from seven to 54."
"Swine Flu Suspected at Two More New York City Schools"
Posted by kmbboots (Member # 8576) on :
Didn't we already do swine flu, 30 some years ago? I remember having to get a vaccine for it.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Yeah, and that flu disappeared faster than the vaccine was disseminated. Which left some people who had been vaccinated VERY unhappy, enough to win monetary settlements after their lawsuits were filed.
More than one kind of swine flu. Sufficient mutation upon the protein*coat changes an older form into a new variety which can bypass immunities developed against the old virus. The genes in this one appear to have avian flu characteristics mixed in with the swine and human flu portions.
* A change in the protein coat reflects a variation in the genetic structure.
[ April 28, 2009, 08:29 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
They're saying it's a type of Influenza A H1N1 (for the flu geeks out there) that is an assortated combination of flu genes from human flu, two different pig flus, and a bird flu.
Also, the CDC is recommending the masks for people who are caregivers to anyone with flulike illness, and for ill people themselves if they have to go in public for any reason (like a doctor visit). I've got a supply of good masks, a couple of hundred, in case it's needful.
The company sent out an email telling us all to read the pandemic plan, so we can keep the power on in case of a pandemic. Our current level of preparedness doesn't give me a whole lot of hope the power will stay on in the event of a bad pandemic, mainly because coal shipments will likely cease. The nuclear plants will be able to stay up, but that's only about 20% of our power. Hopefully there are good transmission and distribution plans that will allow that 20% to keep going. To be safe, we probably need to plan for the power and natural gas and even water to be out 3 - 6 weeks or so, for the worst case.
Best case is no outages due to mild illness and relatively few deaths.
I did go ahead and stock up on some plant-based whole foods that don't need refrigeration today. If the natural gas goes off, though, I'll have to gather firewood and make an outdoor hearth in which to cook them.
I like being prepared for the worst case, so I don't have to worry in any case. I'll just sail through without trouble, and be in a position to help my neighbors.
[ April 28, 2009, 07:44 PM: Message edited by: Tatiana ]
Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
Child was from Mexico, but being treated in Houston. 23 months old. Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
quote:Originally posted by Tatiana: They're saying it's a type of Influenza A H1N1 (for the flu geeks out there) that is an assortated combination of flu genes from human flu, two different pig flus, and a bird flu.
I suppose it is inevitable--but not unreasonable--that some people are asking if this new flu was genetically engineered in a laboratory, by some terrorist-minded person seeking to combine human flu, pig flu(s), and bird flu. If it is just an accident of nature, it is quite an accident!
Posted by Corwin (Member # 5705) on :
I don't know the exact mechanisms at work, but IIRC other flues have passed from birds to pigs to humans. So for the final virus to collect parts of other viruses along the way shouldn't be that surprising. In fact it should be expected.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
Then why doesn't it happen more often? I never heard of polio combining with smallpox.
Posted by Xavier (Member # 405) on :
My boss threw out the "fact" that you can only catch this from actual pigs. As if anyone would be scared if that was the case.
I told him "I don't think that's true" but didn't throw any links at him (though I was tempted). He still thinks it is true, but I'd imagine he'll be corrected enough that he will realize he was mistaken.
Posted by jebus202 (Member # 2524) on :
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert:
quote:Originally posted by Tatiana: They're saying it's a type of Influenza A H1N1 (for the flu geeks out there) that is an assortated combination of flu genes from human flu, two different pig flus, and a bird flu.
I suppose it is inevitable--but not unreasonable--that some people are asking if this new flu was genetically engineered in a laboratory, by some terrorist-minded person seeking to combine human flu, pig flu(s), and bird flu. If it is just an accident of nature, it is quite an accident!
Of course! Al Qaeda's advanced bio-scientists developedthe disease in order to attack their great enemy: Mexico! It makes so much sense. And they made it so it could travel from person to person so they could sneak it into the US (and, apparently, the Middle East)! I mean, a thinking man might have brought the infection to every major city in the US first to take out the America devils, but these are only Muslims we're talking about, after all. They can engineer an advanced virus, but Allah help them if they can find the right place to put it. I mean, look where they put SARS! Idiots!
Posted by kmbboots (Member # 8576) on :
Hey, it seems that Congresswoman Bachman, while not blaming President Obama "find[s] it interesting that it was back in the 1970s that the swine flu broke out then under Democrat President Jimmy Carter."
Ummm...that was Republican President Ford.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Really, the news should only be reporting it when Bachman says something that isn't bat-shit crazy.
Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Then why doesn't it happen more often? I never heard of polio combining with smallpox.
The influenza viruses are somewhat unusual in that they have a segmented genome. Some viruses do, but most don't. Since the virus is designed to readily come apart, when it comes apart in a host animal affected with more than one strain, it can be reassembled in a different way. This is called antigenic shift.
Influenza viruses (specifically, strains of Influenza A) have cleavage sites on the RNA at which host proteases (e.g., certain trypsin-like enzymes in pigs) act to cleave the virus, which then recombines or reassorts with other strains. This has been going on for hundreds of years, well before anyone on Earth had the knowledge or technology to design or deliberately manipulate viruses at the genetic level.
quote:Influenza A viruses have eight separate gene segments. The segmented genome allows influenza A viruses from different species to mix and create a new influenza A virus if viruses from two different species infect the same person or animal. For example, if a pig were infected with a human influenza A virus and an avian influenza A virus at the same time, the new replicating viruses could mix existing genetic information (reassortment) and produce a new virus that had most of the genes from the human virus, but a hemagglutinin and/or neuraminidase from the avian virus. The resulting new virus might then be able to infect humans and spread from person to person, but it would have surface proteins (hemagglutinin and/or neuraminidase) not previously seen in influenza viruses that infect humans.
Polio infects the nervous system directly, as does herpes, but influenza does not. Influenza has a genome that comes apart and is reassembled in host animals, but polio and herpes do not. This is just because different viruses have different structures and work in different ways. It is what makes them different viruses.
It looks like some other viruses (such as Ebola) undergo recombination, but they are not encountered on such a massive scale as the wildly infectious flu virus, so we don't hear much about them.
Posted by BlueWizard (Member # 9389) on :
The question I would like answered is, how many people die from Flu every year?
As far as I can see, the only difference between this flu and any other, besides the media scare mongering, is that it is new and we don't have a vaccine yet. But there is no reason to assume we won't have that vaccine by next flu season.
Yes, a new flu is spreading, and people have died. But people always die from flu, what I want to know is, how is this different than any other flu?
They interviewed a kid in Mexico that tested positive, and he said he wasn't even aware he had it. The worse he felt in the prior weeks was a mild cold.
The flu goes round every year, and in longer than I can remember, I've never caught it.
If you;re worried, simply carry some hand sanitizer around with you.
Steve/bluewizard
Posted by The Pixiest (Member # 1863) on :
The problem with the media crying wolf over and over like this is, eventually, as in the story, the wolf actually shows up and no one pays attention.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
BlueWizard: the big deal is what happens if it this flu has a mutation that makes it spread more rapidly before we have good treatment. If that happens, the possible death toll suddenly jumps from tens of thousands to tens of millions.
Posted by T:man (Member # 11614) on :
While the media is certainly blowing things up a bit, national reactions have generally been proportionate to the level of risk. Heck, I collaborate with one of the people the government tasked to project possible courses of a pandemic, and he thinks slightly stronger measures might be warranted.
Posted by Tinros (Member # 8328) on :
See, we were told by my biology professor that if we had ANY symptoms of flu(coughing, sneezing, fever) we should stay home from class, no matter what, and call a doctor. I had a nasty, nasty flu last quarter- I was in the ER twice- and I can tell you, staying home because you have a cough is NOT a good idea. I ended up failing a couple classes because I missed a week and a half of them, even though I made the work up. So... while the general national reaction might be proportional, educated, intelligent people ARE being (what I would consider) paranoid.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
Claudia, thanks for the explanation about the combine-a-bead nature of influenza viri.
I just saw that Egypt has ordered the destruction of all pigs. I guess that is not too hard to do in a nation that is predominantly Muslim, and regards Swine's flesh as unclean, similar to the way Jews do.
Here is an excerpt:
quote:CAIRO -- Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country Wednesday as a precaution against swine flu even though no cases have been reported here, infuriating farmers who blocked streets and stoned vehicles of Health Ministry workers who came to carry out the government's order.
I have heard health authorities assure everyone that people cannot get this new swine flu from pork products. But are swine an animal vector for the new swine flu or not?
Posted by Bella Bee (Member # 7027) on :
No - it's not affecting pigs. Plus, (if they're going to panic) this strain is part human flu and bird flu as well - so why aren't they killing the chickens for good measure?
Posted by jebus202 (Member # 2524) on :
And the humans.
Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Claudia, thanks for the explanation about the combine-a-bead nature of influenza viri.
No worries.
That's a great way to describe it, by the way: "combine-a-bead." I'll remember that.
Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlueWizard: Yes, a new flu is spreading, and people have died. But people always die from flu, what I want to know is, how is this different than any other flu? ... The flu goes round every year, and in longer than I can remember, I've never caught it.
Because influenza A is a combine-a-bead bugger, every so often, one of the new beads will be particularly virulent. This is especially a problem because most of the flu viruses we've been exposed to are primarily avian strains, and that is where the general population's partial immunity lies. When there is a radically new recombination, that partial immunity may not carry over well, or even at all.
When our bodies kind of recognize the flu virus as something to which one was exposed to before, the immune response is different. The symptoms are less, the infection lasts a shorter time, and we may be infectious ("shedding virus") for a shorter period of time. It's just easier for the body to deal with efficiently and effectively. But a radically different strain can present an essentially new challenge.
"All flus are the same" is a really bad and incorrect way to think about it.
---
Added:
quote:Originally posted by BlueWizard: The flugoes round every year, and in longer than I can remember, I've never caught it.
There is no single "flu." It's always a new flu, which is why the vaccination has to be mixed up new each year, and even then, it doesn't always match.
Some years it is a more similar flu to prior ones than others. This year it might not be very similar at all, and that can have very real consequences.
Posted by Juxtapose (Member # 8837) on :
I hate this. It's making me nervous.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
LOL
Posted by Derrell (Member # 6062) on :
First confirmed case here in Arizona. An 8 year old, but he's already showing signs of improvement. I just saw it on the local news.
Posted by EmpSquared (Member # 10890) on :
Great. Now it's in Washington State. Link. Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
We should expect it to rapidly travel all over the globe. There aren't any good barriers to flu that's spread this far. In 1918 even remote villages far from civilization caught it, from mail delivery people, or whatever rare contact existed. So don't expect your area to stay flu-free.
Posted by Valentine014 (Member # 5981) on :
Looks like it made it to Omaha via California. Link. Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
CT, I'm curious to know how concerned you are about this. After reading that New Scientist article, I'd classify myself as interested, but only slightly concerned (down from mildly worried before reading it).
Something that I don't think is addressed in the article (though maybe it was--I'm operating on far too little sleep here, and it's possible my memory is off) is that even in Mexico, where the mortality rate for this virus seems to be startlingly high, the number of reported cases is probably only a fraction of the total number of people infected. If I get the flu, I don't bother going to my doctor for it, because there really isn't a whole lot that they can do for me. Instead, I just stay home and wait it out. Only if my symptoms intensified to the point that the were scaring me would I bother going to the doctor.
Assuming that I'm not abnormal in this, it seems reasonable to think that the high percentage isn't as high as people think--yes, a high percentage of people with symptoms bad enough to seek physician assistance are dying in Mexico, but the people going to the doctor for this probably represent a fairly small percentage of the infected population. Of course, it's entirely possible that epidemiologists control for this sort of thing when making their estimates (maui babe? Any input?).
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Noemon I think you're absolutely right, but the big concern for me is not getting the flu and dying, but rather the social and economic impact that can come from a large percentage of the population being sick at one time. If only 20% of the firefighters in the city of Birmingham were out sick, it would cripple emergency services in the town. I'm sure that is not unique to Birmingham, but would be the case in any large city.
You would see deaths, not necessarily from swine flu, but from other problems because emergency services can't respond effectively. And, if the emergency rooms are clogged with people panicking because they have the sniffles (or even if they have a mild case of the flu) then the doctors and nurses there can't respond as quickly or as well to true emergencies. Millions of people get sick or injured every day with or without swine flu, and we need our resources from emergency services and hospitals to care for those people. If they're tied up either responding to swine flu, or if they are sick themselves, it makes things much harder.
Posted by Christine (Member # 8594) on :
I'm really struggling to get some perspective here. A big part of me feels like this is just another might-happen that the news is blowing way out of proportion. in effect, "crying wolf." On the other hand, there are definitely some credible medical agencies raising some warning flags here. So yeah, there's a new flu going around. A few people are getting sick, most of them seem to be recovering. I don't want to sound cold about it, but the death toll really doesn't strike me as being particularly frightening.
So, what is possible and what is LIKELY?
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Noemon, the issues is what has been reported. The actual amount of people infected is more than likely MUCH higher than what is being reported. If that is true (and it looks like it is) then the over all mortality rate isn't nearly as high as what is currently being reported.
Data collection is still being done, but I imagine we will see a decrease in the mortality rate now that it is in the US.
One of the concerns is also that it seems to be attacking (and killing) otherwise healthy people, which is atypical of flus. I think that we will also see that change( and it already is starting to), because one again it is a data collection error. Most of these cases are not being reported, and we are starting to receive reports of a number of milder cases that people survived.
Also, as the SF spreads, I imagine we will see it begin to grow in the typical "at risk" population. Right now those populations have been limited in their exposure (young children, elder people and people with compromised immune systems) compared to a normal flu virus. This will lower the infection rate of healthier populations, but may cause more fatalities. Right now we are seeing a disproportionate percent of healthier people being sick, but this will change.
It is POSSIBLE (but not probable) that this could mutate, and because a huge issue. What is likely is that this will be a bad flu, and possibly spread, but the mortality rate will even out, and if you are a healthy person who takes reasonable precautions(HAND WASH PEOPLE, 10-15 times a day....skip the masks and wash your hands!!!) you should be fine.
There will be social repercussions, and our economy will probably take another hit, but in the end we will probably be fine.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
"...Egypt has ordered the destruction of all pigs."
Aporkalypse Now: "Not to have a negative effect on our [pork] industry, we decided to call it 'novel flu' from now on," European Union Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou said yesterday.
Book burnings to follow in order to prevent page-to-human transmission.
Posted by CaySedai (Member # 6459) on :
Maybe the government - or the Iowa Pork Producers - could run a contest for a catchier name that doesn't doesn't involve pork.
Posted by jebus202 (Member # 2524) on :
Pork Flu?
Pig Flu?
Ham Flu?
Bacon Flu?
Don't-Eat-It-if-It-Has-a-Snout-and-Hooves Flu? (Handily shortened to DEIIHSH Flu)
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Well since it's a combination of pig, bird, and human strains why can't we just call it the "mystery meat flu?"
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Belle, that's interesting; I hadn't considered that angle.
quote:Originally posted by Kwea: [QB] Noemon, the issues is what has been reported. The actual amount of people infected is more than likely MUCH higher than what is being reported. If that is true (and it looks like it is) then the over all mortality rate isn't nearly as high as what is currently being reported.
Yes, that's what I was saying. Or, you know, trying to say. I'm a bit of a zombie today, so it's entirely possible that I was less than clear.
As for coming up with a catchy name, it's too bad that term "chimera" is already used in medicine. If it weren't, it would be a good popular name for this one.
[Edit - how about "manticore flu"]
Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
quote:Originally posted by CaySedai: Maybe the government - or the Iowa Pork Producers - could run a contest for a catchier name that doesn't doesn't involve pork.
They kinda have a point.
During the Spanish flu epidemic, I really cut back on eating Spanish people.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
In keeping with your suggestion, BlackBlade, how about "Spam Flu"?
Oh wait--then all the grocery stores would have to pull their cans of Spam off the shelves.
Jebus202--if we kill all the humans, then there would no longer be any urgency for developing a vaccine. It might save the pigs, though. And the birds.
Posted by Mama Squirrel (Member # 4155) on :
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Jebus202--if we kill all the humans, then there would no longer be any urgency for developing a vaccine. It might save the pigs, though. And the birds.
Damn it, I knew there was a flaw in the plan.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
See, the difference between pandemic flu and regular flu seasons is that in regular years, only a small fraction of people even get sick, and a small fraction of those die. In pandemics, a much larger fraction of people get sick all at once (within a 2 or 3 week period) and so they cause outages of normal services of societies, like filling grocery store shelves, keeping the power on, etc. So society is very stressed to be able to keep things going. With our new just-in-time global economy, nobody really has any idea how bad things might be. The last bad flu pandemic was in 1918 when the population was much less and global interdependence was much lower.
So there really is reason for concern. Not so you spend your days in dread, but enough that you realize that it just makes sense to be prepared.
Important ways to be prepared are
1) knowing what to expect so you don't panic and add to the problem. For instance, no groups or organizations, no matter how fearful and hated, did this on purpose. Pandemic flu is a recurring feature of human history.
2) Having supplies of food and water on hand so you can feed your family for several weeks even if grocery stores shelves are empty, power goes off, water goes off, natural gas goes off, other services are unavailable, etc. Hopefully those won't happen, but if half to 2/3 of your workforce didn't show up today, how much of your regular work could you manage to cover? Realize that's true for all sectors of our economy.
3) Knowing to check on relatives, neighbors, the elderly, and make sure everyone is cared for. Wear a good face mask if you're afraid of contagion, but don't let people die for want of simple things you can help them with like water or crackers.
4) So far they're holding up fine, but during a bad pandemic, health care facilities are swamped and can't possibly take care of everyone. Health care workers tend to get infected more than others, since they obviously get exposed to more. Emergency workers as well. So people may have to fend for themselves, or get kicked out of the hospital to make room for people much sicker. Another approach the hospitals might take is to turn away anyone else who comes after they fill up. They'll be working round the clock, stressed, fatigued, and traumatized by all the deaths, so don't try to argue with them. The hospital might be more dangerous a place than our homes for those few weeks while the wave passes.
5) Again, we can hope that the death rate is very low from this strain. Things very well might not get this bad. We've been preparing for an H5N1 pandemic for a while, and those preparations should help. But at the very least it looks like a lot of people will come down ill at once. So don't panic, know what to do, be prepared.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
Edit: Sometime between when I originally posted a link to the picture and now, a highly-probable malware site (country origin .ru) was inserted into the RandomFunnyPhoto page. ie Clicking on the link to that particular RandomFunnyPhoto causes an automatic link redirect that does insert an executable file without asking for permission.....and without changing the appearance of the page.
I replaced that particular link with what I think is one to a safe webpage. But definitely do NOT use the RandomFunnyPhoto link if you've bookmarked it.
[ September 20, 2009, 04:05 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Lol, aspectre!
Posted by ludosti (Member # 1772) on :
Well, with 4 confirmed cases here in AZ already, things will likely get interesting. My husband (who works in the IT department for a large national financial company) has had to prepare computers today for employees to take home in case of a large outbreak. My biggest concern is for my mother, who is immune-compromised. Between it and some of her other physical issues, she doesn't normally come into contact with many people, but things like this make me a little nervous for her.
Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :
Noeman, my personal (and unscientific but frank) belief is that we've already had swine flu travelling around the US and Canada for the last few months. I think it's likely that Mexico does have an underreporting problem, and (I think) odds are we'll mostly make it through just fine.
But. But. We just do not know. I don't think anyone has any reasonable way of predicting "how likely" at this point. It's a "may be, may not be, will have to wait and see, so best to be prepared" sort of thing.
Posted by CaySedai (Member # 6459) on :
I had wanted to suggest "zombie flu" in response to someone's post (Noemon, on second page) about zombies. Lo and behold: "zombism".
I wish we had spoiler text coverup on this site. It's a very clever page - mimics the BBC page and the links go back to the original BBC site.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
I just listened to the WHO daily press briefing from today and the WHO scientist on one occasion referred to it as "this pandemic". I thought that was interesting that he didn't say this potential pandemic or this impending pandemic but just this pandemic. It seems they are fully expecting to go to stage 6 any time.
Posted by maui babe (Member # 1894) on :
They pretty much are expecting to up the level to 6 very soon (the last report I heard was that it would go up within 24 hours)... but it's based on global spread, not on virulence or severity of the illness.
By definition, this IS a pandemic. It just doesn't seem to be an especially virulent one (outside of Mexico City anyway, and we're not even sure about that, cuz we're not sure exactly how they're counting cases).
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
What another WHO scientist said is that the 1918 flu was very mild at first. That there is no way to tell from these first cases how mild or virulent it will end up being.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Another interesting thing I found, video of a symposium on pandemic flu from 2006. Of course they assumed an H5N1 pandemic, but the conclusions they draw would apply to any severe pandemic.
The whole thing is like 2 hours long or something but it's really fascinating, or is to me.
Here we have this tremendous problem for society, and it has the potential to cause many deaths, and much trauma to those who survive, it can deal death-blows to any systems upon which we depend to survive in our society, if they are too delicate or too vulnerable. The big take-home lesson of all this is ...
we are on our own
we're going to have to learn self-reliance to get through this. All our support systems, the government, the hospitals, the ambulance drivers and EMTs, the grocery stores, the utilities, the gas stations, all of those things could go away, and we would be left to fend for ourselves, as the victims of Hurricane Katrina had to fend for themselves, but not just for a week but possibly for up to 12 weeks.
The thing we need more than anything else is people who are resilient, prepared, determined, and able to take care of themselves. Those types of people will be the leaders who can get their communities through a severe pandemic, whenever it comes. We need a lot of people like that. I hope all hatrackers will be among them.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
Some health authorities I have heard on the media say that we are not into the regular flu season yet, which is one of the unusual things about this current outbreak. But once we do enter the regular flu season, many will think that any case of flu is H1N1 (Swine, Mexico, Babe). So as far as public hysteria is concerned, we are not out of the woods yet.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
I just had another possible name for the current flu occur to me. We could call it "Mayo Flu." Which could give a whole new meaning to the Cinco de Mayo holiday. The Mayo Clinic probably would not mind the extra publicity. Sales of mayonnaise might be depressed for a while, though.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
Hmmm--I just did a little research on my favorite "Sinko de Mayo" joke. I was surprised to find it made its way to Snopes. Here is the link: http://www.snopes.com/humor/jokes/sinkomayo.asp
I am sure I was not the first to tell it, but I know I was telling this joke prior to 1997.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/ Here's a good and fairly brief overview of the 1918 flu. This is what a bad pandemic is like during a time when the population is much smaller, the world is much less interdependent, and our local economies were not run on just-in-time principles. So here's a bad one. Hopefully this one will be a mild one.
The thing is, nobody knows. There's not anyone on earth who can tell you at this point if this will be mild or bad. If it's bad, it can be bad in whole new ways that we've never before experienced, because of the way society has changed in the meantime to a form that happens to be much more vulnerable to flu-like infectious diseases.
Again, I'm not trying to scare people for no reason. I'm trying to motivate people to prepare, I'm trying to educate them about how things will be, and I'm trying to encourage them to be strong, self-reliant, and capable in emergencies and disasters.
Posted by Audeo (Member # 5130) on :
To put this new pandemic into perspective a little, I found a pubmed article (DOI citation doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2007.03.46) that discusses the epidemiology of the 'seasonal flu' which is a mix of several subtypes that commonly infect humans. In the 1990's the US had an annual average of 36,000 deaths from influenza and 200,000 hospitalizations. The study doesn't give a number of total cases, but it must be well in excess of 200,000 people. Of course the deaths (over 60%) were mainly in people over 65 with deaths in children between 5-17 being so rare that they didn't have enough data to extrapolate the frequency.
So the newest strain of A H1N1 is still relatively small in terms of epidemiological impact. However, it is the nearing the end of the flu season and the virus may smolder over the summer only infecting a small number of people only to resurge in the fall and become a more severe problem. The fear of this was the reason for a wide spread flu vaccine program in the 1970's. The result was that the virus never spread like feared, and the morbidity and mortality as a direct result of vaccination was greater than that of the actual disease. Of course I wonder if the reason it never took off in the fall was because there was such a great vaccination program, but politicians and epidemiologists of the day were lambasted for overreacting.
Posted by Bella Bee (Member # 7027) on :
I still think that most people are likely to socialise with more humans than pigs, though.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Okay, the people whose main concern about SwineFlu was whether they'd close the theaters before StarTrek's opening weekend, raise your hands. It would be ironic if this minor outbreak turns into a pandemic because of this coming weekend's packed theaters.
Posted by Darth_Mauve (Member # 4709) on :
Those pesky viruses, wishing to, "Boldly go where no man has gone before--your lungs."
Or maybe, "To Boldly go into a man where no Swine derived virus has gone before."
The new name, "The Romulan Flu--insuring only it lives long and prospers".
I can see the post-mortem now. "The CDC reports that the virus was spread and strengthened due mostly to it being shared during the "Star Trek" weekend. It could have been stopped if the authorities had taken faster action, but since the Trekkies were the first to go, no one really noticed. Even those who saw a sick Trekkie--pale, glazed eyes, feverish, could not tell them from normal Trekkies."
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
Klingon!
But even if they do close the theatres, eventually the movie will come out on DVD.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
According to the Encyclopedia Galactica, Mauves are an alien species with three sexes that are entered into sequentially by one individual, first as the "sire" stage, then as the "wife" stage, then as the "incubator" stage. Sadly, if something goes haywire and a Mauve spends too long in the wife stage, eventually he/she/it bursts into flame and turns to ash. Hence the admonitory slogan known to all the Mauves--"Wive long and phosphor!"
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
uuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
[ February 14, 2010, 11:46 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Haha, great idea! And you'll totally fit in, too. People will just think you're in costume.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
The numbers continue to increase in a way that looks exponential, but will obviously turn into an S-shaped curve (sorry, I forgot the cool mathematical word for that) eventually. On this site, ignore the map, which isn't helpful at the moment, but notice the graph below it of cases day by day. It's not looking so good. At least for now the mortality rate is low. I guess that's the bright side. And if it comes back in more virulent form in the fall, all the people who get the milder form now will be immune, most likely. So it will be interesting to see what happens.
Edit: sigmoidal
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
The WHO declared pandemic phase 6 today. Don't quit taking precautions.
quote: The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic.
We are in the earliest days of the pandemic. The virus is spreading under a close and careful watch.
No previous pandemic has been detected so early or watched so closely, in real-time, right at the very beginning. The world can now reap the benefits of investments, over the last five years, in pandemic preparedness.
...
A characteristic feature of pandemics is their rapid spread to all parts of the world. In the previous century, this spread has typically taken around 6 to 9 months, even during times when most international travel was by ship or rail.
Countries should prepare to see cases, or the further spread of cases, in the near future. Countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked should prepare for a second wave of infection.
...
We are all in this together, and we will all get through this, together.
Unfortunately, not all, but hopefully most.
Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
That is, except the precautions that become useless in a pandemic. For instance, air travel to any particular location is nothing to avoid; the flu will be everywhere but the most remote locations.
Posted by The Pixiest (Member # 1863) on :
*yawn* wake me up when everyone is dead and I can move to Boulder.
Posted by Ron Lambert (Member # 2872) on :
I think the best precaution (besides getting enough sleep so that your immune system does not get run down) is to take lots of garlic tablets. The Allycin in garlic is said to have both antibacterial and antiviral properties. Odor-free tablets are commonly available. You will have to experiment to see what dosage works best for you. I take eight capsules per day, of the kind sold by CVS Pharmacy. With that I also take 2.5 grams of vitamin C daily (in the form of ascorbic acid), and I chew up several Rolaids tablets with them, to avoid too much acidity in my stomache. I prefer Rolaids because it also has a balanced amount of magnesium with the calcium. I have had no colds or flu in years.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
1. Allicin in garlic has no antiviral properties. Garlic won't have had anything to do with you avoiding colds or flu.
2. Are you saying that you take several rolaids tablets, preemptively, daily? This is a quick ticket to having kidney stones and it is a poor way to handle gerd.
Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
quote:Originally posted by The Pixiest: *yawn* wake me up when everyone is dead and I can move to Boulder.
I was here first.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
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