quote:

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The Nobel Peace Prize for 2010 has gone to China's best-known dissident, Liu Xiaobo — who is presently in a prison cell where he is serving 11 years for incitement to subvert state power.

The Norwegian Nobel committee praised Liu Xiaobo for his "long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China. The ... committee has long believed that there is a close connection between human rights and peace." As the news was announced, transmission of both BBC news and CNN television channels was interrupted in China.

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Fall brings slipping temps, change of color and mid-term elections to the United States, which also means it's time to bring out the spectre of China to wrangle votes. The anti-China rhetoric is really heating up as Americans head to the polls in less than one month’s time. According to a piece in the New York Times, in roughly the past week, 29 candidates have jumped on the anti-China train... much of it focusing around, wait for it, you guessed it - JOBS!

While the ads mean to take advantage of the growing anti-China sentiment in the US as a result of continued high unemployment and cries of unfair trade practices (aka currency manipulation), one has to wonder how this will affect US-China relations going forward. Running an ad and ending it with thanking the candidate in Chinese for sending jobs to China isn’t exactly playing nice.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
The green dam girl is so moe!

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quote:

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Twitter users in China report that references to the letter on different internet message boards are already being deleted.

The censors appear to be doing what they always do, seeking to wipe away any traces of criticism of the party that would soil its reputation amongst ordinary people, our correspondent says.

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:

quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
The green dam girl is so moe!

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This is the Chinese thread. Take your dirty Japanese words somewhere else.

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quote:

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Coined in Japan around the year 2000, "Moe" (萌え) is an ill-defined otaku term that means, amongst others, "cute", "huggable", "endearing". While it's sometimes used to describe a series, it's more about a specific kind of character. Can also incorporate sexiness, to some. To others it invokes a Big Brother Instinct.

Or to put it another way, Moe is the ability of a character to instill in the audience an irrational desire to hug them, protect them, comfort them, help them with whatever they need/want, etc.

However, woobies or other awkward male characters can be seen as "moe" by fans. Like their Distaff Counterparts, they posses traits like quirkiness, clumsiness, social awkwardness, and other Character Tics that give them an endearing vulnerability. This can be especially effective if they possess a tough outer shell that belies a soft, squishy heart. If you ever hear a male character referred to as "adorkable" chances are good they're pretty moe. If they aren't generically cute in canon, expect them to be so in fanfic and fanart. Also, despite general belief that moe females are more tolerated, often the "bad traits" that make moe girls "offensive", "sexist" and "bad role models" are somehow seen as "cute, squishy and adorable" in boys.

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quote:

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Originally posted by fugu13:
While there are aspects of moe culture that can be distasteful, it isn't synonymous with lolicon at all. Some parts of it are definite offshoots of lolicon culture, though.

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:

quote:

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Originally posted by fugu13:
While there are aspects of moe culture that can be distasteful, it isn't synonymous with lolicon at all. Some parts of it are definite offshoots of lolicon culture, though.

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I know that the two terms are not synonyms, but as long as moe includes anything loliconish, I find it hard to give moe much of my time.

I'm mostly vehemently against girls "budding" and being cute/sexy so as to entice male viewership.

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
There's nothing wrong with female characters being attractive looking, cute, funny, girly, or flirty. I find it creepy when they try to make prepubescent girls seem physically attractive, or out and out sexual.

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quote:

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That isn't what is widely considered the goal or intention of moe.

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quote:

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For example Rika Furude from When They Cry Higurashi is "moe", she's cute, endearing, and everything about her makes you want to run over to her and hug her to protect her from all the times she gets murdered in series, paradoxically even moreso when she stops "acting" moe.(emphasis mine)

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quote:

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But never in this entire time did I (or alot of fans) consider her sexually attractive or a character I would consider a viable or attractive mating option.

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As such I'm certain that your distaste with moe is at best misinformed.

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See I don't want young girls that are designed to make you want to grope them at all. I've seen that anime, and it wasn't the worst example of moe I've seen. The miniskirt is a bit much, but whatever I'm not a prude. Her slamming her head on a knife blade over and over was kinda messed up though.

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Yes, I'm sure there are many many older men who are jumping up and down with agreement.

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I've seen just about every female character from every anime you've probably seen dressed up, sexed up, and in suggestive poses.

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I like Hayao Miyazaki's female characters precisely because they are sweet, funny, enthusiastic, intelligent, but they also aren't 12 years old and forgetting to wear pants.

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As such, I'm certain you don't have a clue what I am and am not informed about when it comes to this medium.

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quote:

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Originally posted by TomDavidson:
I have to admit that I was a little creeped out by Ponyo's extremely unhealthy interest in her "boyfriend."

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quote:

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Honestly read as written charitably speaking you sound like you know a little but letting personal distaste with the egregious fanservice of shonen/shoujo anime colour and subvert the definition of what moe is and sorta passing off that definition as the truth.

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I've never once said my definition MUST be accepted as gospel. I just don't particularly enjoy getting physical contact with young girls I don't actually know.

Don't let my preference for disliking moe stop you. But it's still a Japanese word, and we are in a Chinese thread.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
And whose the older brother to who!? Japanese culture descends from Chinese culture, its only natural for Big Brother to learn something from Little Brother.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
And whose the older brother to who!? Japanese culture descends from Chinese culture, its only natural for Big Brother to learn something from Little Brother.

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quote:

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China's Communist Party Central Committee ended its annual meeting Monday by elevating Vice President Xi Jinping to a vice chairmanship of the powerful Central Military Commission, apparently cementing his role as the country's next president and demonstrating that the closely guarded succession process remains on track.

At the same time, the conference ended with only the vaguest mention of political reform, largely ignoring a recent small but growing clamor for more freedom and less news media censorship coming from a group of a dozen party elders, a hundred human rights activists and dissidents, newspapers, and even Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who vowed this month to push for reform "until the last day of my life."

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:
I don't think so, at least Wikipedia says he was born in Beijing with ancestral origins in Shaanxi.

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quote:

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
... The embargo is seen to be retaliation for the US pressing the WTO on Chinese trade practices regarding clean energies (specifically state subsidies that exceed those allowable under their trade agreements and trade barriers to imports).

---

It's been reported that way, but I find the connection dubious. The probe was announced less than a week ago. Given the glacial pace of these kinds of policy changes in China (and the US for that matter), I find it doubtful that the policy is connected.

Indeed, a bit of digging indicates that the policy has been choregraphed more than a year ago, far earlier than even the Japanese issue. http://www.chinalawblog.com/2010/10/chinas_rare_earths_we_called_this_one.html

Tariffs started as far back as 2006 according the CBC.

Anyways, whatever the reason, I tend to think of it as good news for everyone, except for maybe Japan. Rare earths shouldn't be mined in China, the current process is extremely toxic and even radioactive and has been targetted by human rights groups and environmentalists due to its effects on villagers. It would be better to mine them in the West where the regulations are better and in this economy, the increase in jobs aren't half bad either. *shrug*
 

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Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 
The US used to be the world's biggest exporter of these. China only has about 30-35% of the world's supply. Basically, they were willing to subsidize their industry (and run them without pollution and worker safety controls) until the point where nobody else found them economically viable, and now they're exploiting an artificial monopoly. In one case, a Chinese company literally went into a former US competitor, bought it, and took home all of the equipment. There's no physical reason why the US couldn't produce this stuff for itself.

However, it will take a few years to gear up the industry again.
 

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Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
 
I can accept the gun being loaded, but I find the idea that the Japanese imprisonment of the captain wasn't the trigger difficult to buy, because the two events happened in such a short time frame. Similarly with the widened embargo; I imagine the policy was put in place, waiting for the moment at which it was deemed useful.

As for it being good news for everyone, I think you're eliding many negative consequences for China and its trade partners. The worst of which could be increased economic tensions and likelihood of international trade wars, leading to global inflation on essential goods in a time of high unemployment. Tensions are already pretty high after a spate of unilateral currency devaluations (by countries taking China's lead in using currency manipulation as a tool to grow their export sector) and Brazil's consequent move (Drezner talked about that in a previous blog post) to "raise taxes on foreign inflows" in order to combat what the Brazilian foreign minister called "a global currency war."

So China ratcheting up trade tensions in an already tense environment doesn't seem, to me at least, to be good news for everyone.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
It doesn't matter if it was the "trigger" or not (although I find the American perception that the Chinese bureaucracy is *that* efficient amusing) if the reason is an underlying long term trend that was basically put into action more than a year ago, then I gotta say I have little sympathy for being caught off guard now.

As for tensions, I'm aware of them but I think they will wash out in the end. After all, the usual complaint is that China is selling stuff too cheap. In this case, whether or not it is a full ban or not, they've already announced drastic cuts in the amount that is allowed to be exported which should lead to very high prices. That is the opposite which should address the complaints about stuff being too cheap. People can't complain about stuff being too cheap AND too expensive at the same time
 

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Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :
 
Also, anyone who wants production to increase in the first world should be for the embargo -- there's no chance it'll be produced in a much more expensive place while the quantities needed are available cheaply elsewhere.
 

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Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
 
I can recognize the positive consequences of the embargo (e.g. eventual diversification of the production). But I can also recognize the short-term negative consequences and question whether the negative consequnces outweigh the positive ones. It seems more prudent to weaken the monopoly through encouraging greater safety and environmental regulations through international pressure, as well as an end to China's currency manipulation, rather than supporting an abrupt embargo that might lead to shortages, rationing and hoarding of essential raw materials, particularly given the currently somewhat precarious state of international trade.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Is there any proof that the currency manipulation is of any significant portion of the trade issues?
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
SenojRetep: There are a few different questions that are being answered. The relatively narrow one I targeted was effectively "Is this one action by China a net good for most nations?" to which I answered yes. Your last response seems to be an answer to the question "is this the most optimal action by multiple nations out of all possible actions?" which I think is probably much too broad.

The other issue is that an export quota or embargo on one commodity is much more domestically politically feasible than a far-reaching revaluation of the yuan and more realistic than expecting provincial authorities to enforce safety and environmental regulations. At this point in time, the central government has taken to blowing up outdated power plants and factories just to make sure that local authorities don't merely restart them when the central government moves its attention elsewhere.
 

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Posted by SenojRetep (Member # 8614) on :
 
Man pleads guilty to trying to spy for China.

quote:

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Shriver acknowledged at the hearing that he met with Chinese officials about 20 times beginning in 2004 and that he received a total of about $70,000 from Chinese intelligence officers.

One $40,000 payment was in exchange for his agreement to apply for a job in the U.S. government, obtain classified information and pass it to China, according to Judge Liam O'Grady who described the allegations during the hearing.

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quote:

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
And I believe that China's motive in emplacing the embargo is almost certainly not one of international goodwill but of local political expediency (a bone, as it were, to the nationalist hoards and a stick to produce favorable foreign policy from trading partners).

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quote:

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Rare-Earth Furor Overlooks China's 2006 Industrial Policy Signal
By Bloomberg News
...
China’s curbs on rare-earth exports may owe more to a 2006 policy to create fewer, larger companies than a knee-jerk response to trade and territorial disputes.

A directive that year tagged mining among the pillar industries the government wanted state enterprises to dominate to enhance returns and global competitiveness. This year it started closing down private mining companies to consolidate the industry around a handful of producers led by Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth High-Tech Co.

Global repercussions from the overhaul drew attention in July when the government said it would cut export quotas 72 percent in the second half of the year.

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quote:

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Is China's rare earth power play really such a big deal?
...
I am amazed at the parochialism of the press on this issue. It would seem as if the NYT thinks the tail is wagging the dog. China is restructuring its rare earth mining industry to reduce 129 legal, and no one knows how many illegal, producers of rare earth mine concentrates to just 3 or 4 entities controlled by regionally based, state-owned base metals giants. Currently 3 have been officially named: BaoSteel, Ziangxi Copper, and China MinMetal (This last is a trading company, not a miner per se). Chinalco seems to have added itself to the list also.

The purpose of this "consolidation" is to discover the industry's pricing and actual production both for the purpose of central planning. China, in my view, is acting quite rationally in order to organize an industry it has long recognized as too important to be left to the fierce and often destructive competition arising from China's wild west approach to capitalist development of new industries. The next two five-year plans feature a massive green development drive that cannot happen without the regular and smooth production and delivery of technology metals to the manufacturers whose green economy products critically depend upon them.

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The personal and professional interests of the foreign media in China have never had much in common with the average Chinese people with whom they cover. Sometimes, this is a good and necessary thing: if the foreign media won’t cover Chinese dissidents, who will? But often, this produces absurd results that distort – for readers and viewers outside of China – what matters to China.

Take, for example, the near obsession that China’s foreign correspondents have with Jia Zhangke, a very good Chinese filmmaker who makes “serious,” socially conscious films that have almost no audience in China, but which win awards abroad. This year, during the Expo, the New Yorker (to choose just one English language publication) devoted thousands of words to Mr. Jia. Fair enough, I suppose, except for the fact that – at the same time Jia Zhangke was appealing to a decidedly small audience of hyper-educated New Yorker writers, readers, and editors, the turnstiles at Expo 2010 – the Shanghai World’s Fair – were rotating at a rate that eclipsed Jia Zhangke’s entire Chinese audience by noon, every day, May to October. If New Yorker readers wanted to know something about why people were rushing through those turnstiles, they’d have to look elsewhere because, aside from a few blog posts, the magazine published nothing on Expo 2010 – the biggest and most expensive event that ever took place in China (and, some argue, anywhere). Of course, the New Yorker, and its terrific China correspondent weren’t alone in this choice of coverage – they were joined in the decision by most of the China-based foreign media (and their overseas editors). What a pity.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Samprimary:
More on my prior mentioned You Will Never Learn Chinese.

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Man in mask detained after Air Canada flight

A young Asian man is asking for asylum in Vancouver after what the Canada Border Services Agency is calling an "unbelievable case of concealment."

The young man is in detention in Vancouver after he boarded an Air Canada flight in Hong Kong on Oct. 29 disguised as an elderly man.

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quote:

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
It should be mentioned that pretty much everyone is pissed at the US over QE.

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Yep. Even Canada

quote:

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The ramifications of a weak U.S. dollar are huge - hence the concern. Scotia Capital economists Derek Holt and Gorica Djeric were particularly harsh in their assement today, raising warnings over the potential fallout:

"[Canadian dollar] strength also proves the point that one needn't have [Bank of Canada] tightening to drive the currency. It's being driven by U.S. efforts to export its years of profligacy to its trading partners and blame everyone else in a process engineered through debasement of the greenback. That is also sparking flows out of the [U.S. dollar] into commodities that in turn reinforce strength in commodity related [foreign exchange] crosses like [the Canadian dollar] ... The U.S. is fooling itself in believing that such efforts may not come back to bite itself via creating instability in foreign markets via feeding abrupt capital flow swings and imbalances ranging from emerging markets through to Canadian housing and household finances."

CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson noted last week that "there are fears that the U.S. are devaluing the dollar by a form of benign neglect, and as a result putting pressure on emerging market currencies in the process, as investors go looking for yield. This has created tensions and fears of a possible currency war as emerging market economies take steps to stem the appreciation of their currencies."

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quote:

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But in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine, Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, extended his criticism of US policy, describing the US growth model as in “deep crisis”.

“It’s not right when the Americans accuse China of manipulating exchange rates and then push the dollar exchange rate lower by opening up the flood gates by turning on the printing presses,” Mr Schäuble said.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:

quote:

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
It should be mentioned that pretty much everyone is pissed at the US over QE.

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Yep. Even Canada
...
Although we're less bombastic than the Germans

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Even Sarah Palin hates it! Does her agreeing with the Chinese finance minister make her a communist or just a communist sympathizer?
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Humorous interlude:

US-Sino currency rap battle from Next Media Animation

(Link Removed by Janitor Blade. There's a bit of frontal nudity in the film, which I felt tipped it into unsafe territory for a link. Anybody interested in finding the link can easily google 3-D Sex and Zen)

[ November 13, 2010, 11:33 AM: Message edited by: JanitorBlade ]
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
The Asian Games in Guangzhou have started.
The Big Picture

Looks like they spent quite a bit on the production, I'm going to have to figure out how to get video of it in HD. (Might even be able to get Cantonese since it looks like the protests against Mandarin succeeded)
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Cantonese folks still feel resentment at having Mandarin thrust upon them? Who knew!?
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
To the bitter end
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:
Humorous interlude:

US-Sino currency rap battle from Next Media Animation

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:
Anybody interested in finding the link can easily google 3-D Sex and Zen

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quote:

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The Asian Games in Guangzhou have started.
The Big Picture

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quote:

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How the hacker attacks which forced Google to quit China in January were orchestrated by a senior member of the Politburo who typed his own name into the global version of the search engine and found articles criticising him personally.

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"The [state] department is seeking both immediate action ... and a strategic approach with regards to this critical issue," Rice's cable states. "We now have information that the goods will be shipped on 4 November and insist on a substantive response from China ... We assess that the best way to prevent these shipments in the future is for Chinese authorities to take action ... that will make the Beijing airport a less hospitable transfer point."

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American diplomats in East Asia reported about members of the Beijing leadership who had grown sick and tired of the escapades of their North Korean ally Kim Jong Il and who could conceive of reunification under the control of South Korea.

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MalcolmMoore: Wikileaks China docs include embassy cables from June 3, 5, 1989.

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quote:

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MalcolmMoore: Wikileaks China docs include embassy cables from June 3, 5, 1989.

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American diplomats in East Asia reported about members of the Beijing leadership who had grown sick and tired of the escapades of their North Korean ally Kim Jong Il and who could conceive of reunification under the control of South Korea.

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Without naming names, XXXXXXXXXX also suggested the strong possibility that someone had made a payment (on the order of USD 10,000) to secure the premier’s support.

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That’s right: somebody at the US Consulate in Shenyang reported the “strong possibility” that China’s premier had been bribed for less than the cost of a used Buick in Shanghai. That is to say, somebody at the US Consulate in Shenyang – probably several somebodies – believes that the Premier can be bribed for less than the cost of a used Buick in Shanghai.

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In Chinese domestic politics, Hu had wanted Vice Premier Li Keqiang from the Communist Youth League to emerge as his successor, not Vice President Xi Jinping, but Hu did his calculations and accepted Xi when it became clear that Xi had the necessary backing from the rest of the leadership. Similarly, on Taiwan, Hu will be pragmatic. It does not matter to Hu if it takes 10 years or 20 or 30. The key is building links with Taiwan.

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Xi is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:
... First, one seems to be from one anonymous source and may or may not be reliable

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quote:

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In China, at least, among the most anticipated of the wikileaks cables was the one that purportedly suggested that a member of the Chinese Politburo set off a crackdown on google after finding that searches for his name produced unflattering results. To me, at least, this seemed implausible (at least as a source-able news story), but I thought I’d at least wait for the actual cable to make a judgment. And today, I got that cable, dated May 18, 2009 .... Interesting enough, Wikileaks blacks out the name of the Politburo official who purportedly was offended by the search – but the New York Times, for reasons unclear, could not resist and unmasks him as Li Changchun, China’s Propaganda chief. Neither party, however, identifies the source of this very high-level and damning story. But we do know this: a) there is only one source for this story, and b) it was not Li Changchun. Furthermore, we know that the author of the diplomatic cable wasn’t nearly as confident in the story as the authors of the New York Times piece, and s/he states this lack of confidence in the second to last sentence of the cable:

“While we can neither confirm nor deny the provocative language and views attributed to xxxxxxxx, the claims of government-forced retribution by the major SOE telecom companies are cause for serious concern.”

Now, it’s worth nothing that a single source anecdote, backed by doubts from the reporting journalist, would automatically disqualify the Li Changchun story from any major newspaper or magazine in the United States – especially those with fact-checking departments, and especially the New York Times (newspaper of, ahem, record).

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A lot of the intelligence in these cables doesn't seem to be panning out. No wonder we got the Niger-Yellowcake/WMD claims.

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quote:

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but the New York Times, for reasons unclear, could not resist and unmasks him as Li Changchun

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Zhejiang Province Communist Party Secretary Xi Jinping, a contender to succeed President Hu Jintao in 2012/2013

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Xi said he particularly likes Hollywood movies about World War II and hopes Hollywood will continue to make them. Hollywood makes those movies well, and such Hollywood movies are grand and truthful. Americans have a clear outlook on values and clearly demarcate between good and evil. In American movies, good usually prevails. In contrast, “Curse of the Golden Flower,” a recently popular Chinese movie directed by Zhang Yimou and starring Gong Li (she of “Miami Vice” movie stardom) had been confusing to Xi. Some Chinese moviemakers neglect values they should promote.

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He criticized Zhang Yimou by name as well as the kungfu action movie genre. “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and “Wu Ji” and imperial palace intrigues -- all are the same, talking about bad things in imperial palaces.

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quote:

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Xi would act
to ensure that Jiang was not harassed or that Jiang's corrupt
son would not be arrested, xxxxx.

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... Such a mindset could potentially place the "princelings" at odds with Party members who do not have
similar pedigrees, xxxxx, such as President
Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao and Party members with a CYL
background, who were derisively referred to as "shopkeepers'
sons." xxxxx had heard some princeling
families denounce those without revolutionary pedigrees by
saying, "While my father was bleeding and dying for China,
your father was selling shoelaces."

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
I guess Chinese food can be eaten in copious amounts over here in China...

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quote:

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Originally posted by jebus202:

quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
I guess Chinese food can be eaten in copious amounts over here in China...

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Well, yea, but I think over there they just call it food.

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Heh, the word "from" was missing.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
I'm sad they didn't get an actual answer, but I admit it's kinda nice for Pres. Hu to have his feet racked against the coals for just a few moments.

Link.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
All he had to do was email me ahead of time and I could have given him the perfect answer to that question
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
All he had to do was email me ahead of time and I could have given him the perfect answer to that question

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quote:

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The live global broadcast of Obama's press conference was not supposed to have any questions from non-American reporters. Obama pointed only at the White House reporters who traveled with him. This is Obama's custom. But he decided at the spur of the moment to add an extra question at the very end. He emphasized that he wanted the question to come from the Korean media.
...
President (1) comes to country (2) to attend an economic summit and holds a press conference. However, the President only took questions in his own language from his own national reporters who were traveling with him. At the end of the press conference, he allowed one question from the host country.

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quote:

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We can reverse this to make the silliness of the piece clear. How much would we congratulate a "gutsy" CCTV Chinese reporter for "unexpectedly" finding themselves allied with the Politburo and asking a tough question couched in criticism of Obama? None at all.

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Actually, if a CCTV reporter asked something like, "You promised to close Guantanamo Bay and give terrorists basic rights, and yet your administration has not delivered on these promises, why?

I would applaud.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Maybe you're a lot less cynical than I am
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Bah, turns out we're both working off of false premises. The WP article is just fantasy.

quote:

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(China Times) January 21, 2011

The first question came from an American reporter who asked Obama and Hu to discuss the issue of human rights. Obama thought that there was simultaneous interpretation service, so he responded immediately in a comprehensive manner without waiting for the interpretation of the question into Chinese first. After he finished speaking, the Chinese interpretation began. Obama realized what was going on and apologized. The emcee then asked a Chinese reporter to pose a question. This meant that Hu had no opportunity to respond on the human rights question.

The third question came from an American reporter who said: "Chairman Hu did not respond to the human rights question." Hu Jintao looked perplexed and said that he did not hear the human rights question. Then he began to speak readily. The fact is that all the questions were selected before hand. Thus, Hu came prepared with a printed speech in front of him. He did not have to evade this question.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:
Bah, turns out we're both working off of false premises. The WP article is just fantasy.

quote:

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(China Times) January 21, 2011

The first question came from an American reporter who asked Obama and Hu to discuss the issue of human rights. Obama thought that there was simultaneous interpretation service, so he responded immediately in a comprehensive manner without waiting for the interpretation of the question into Chinese first. After he finished speaking, the Chinese interpretation began. Obama realized what was going on and apologized. The emcee then asked a Chinese reporter to pose a question. This meant that Hu had no opportunity to respond on the human rights question.

The third question came from an American reporter who said: "Chairman Hu did not respond to the human rights question." Hu Jintao looked perplexed and said that he did not hear the human rights question. Then he began to speak readily. The fact is that all the questions were selected before hand. Thus, Hu came prepared with a printed speech in front of him. He did not have to evade this question.

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http://www.zonaeuropa.com/201101a.brief.htm

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Or perhaps, zonaeuropa is in the pockets of the politburo! We'll never know will we?!
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
There's an interesting back and forth on the subject of religion in China. The start is an article on Huffington Post depicting a massive resurgence of religion in China based on some (relatively) new survey. There's a counter-argument based on the study here and the original survey is available at ARDA with the caveat that the survey data is collected by the Templeton Foundation which has a somewhat colourful reputation. I actually recommend starting with the data actually.

The upshot is that the initial article is garbage, the Templeton survey does seem to have some interesting data on religion in China, but that it actually has much lower estimates of religious activity in China than an official government survey out of Shanghai (an encouraging (from my POV) 17.8% versus 30%).* There are many questions on the importance of religious belief, Christianity, and what rituals are still performed.

Reading through it, it also seems to support my belief that the Cultural Revolution certainly did a number on superstitions like astrology, fortune telling, and feng shui, knocking it below my estimate of their popularity in Hong Kong. Ancestor veneration appears to be the biggest survivor.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
I think the CR certainly did knock out religion quite throughly in ML China. I think the country is quite ripe though for a revival of religion, not just traditional religions but Western ones as well.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I'm not so sure. Historically, in China, religion has shown the greatest sudden growth during periods of instability between dynasties.

Barring that (in which case, who knows what a modern civil war would entail), we're looking at a grinding war between the secularism that development and education brings versus a "return to mean" as the CCP relaxes controls*. China will probably hits a point between the more religious Taiwan and the less religious Hong Kong.

* I'm not particularly sure this will even happen in the way that liberals hope.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Interesting point, haven't heard too much about this either

quote:

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As a sample of what I mean, let me try this question on you (this is one I used to preface a speech at Chatham House in London two weeks ago): Can you name an atrocity that happened in East Asia in the 1930s that, on a one-day, one-decision basis, probably ranks as the worst atrocity in history?
...
What is beyond question is that even many China specialists at U.S. universities have never heard of the Huang He massacre, for instance. Yet it was truly an enormous atrocity. On Encyclopedia Britannica's numbers, between 500,000 and 900,000 people died after Chinese Nationalist forces under Chiang Kai Shek destroyed the Yellow River's dikes near Kaifeng. The move was undertaken to try to slow the advance of Japanese troops during the Sino-Japanese War.

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I was very disappointed when I read this story about the US ambassador in Beijing taking part in the so-called “Jasmine” protests last Sunday. This is very bad news for Chinese supporters of democracy (yet again).

First of all, let’s be serious. The idea that the ambassador didn’t know what was going on is an insult to intelligence, his appearing on camera lying to a Chinese passer-by only makes things worse…

…Don’t American politicians understand that democracy can only win if it is seen as homegrown? What would happen if the French ambassador was seen joining a protest for, say, the health reform in the US, would this help further the Democrats’ agenda? Does this kind of action help the millions of real, anonymous Chinese who hope for a more open system? Certainly not.

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A study casts new light on the world's most important bilateral relationship

NEARLY three-quarters of Americans wish China would "just hurry up and overtake America already," according to a new survey by The Economist Simulation Unit, published on April 1st. Constant worrying about exactly when the superpower will fall into second place is causing anxiety throughout American society, the survey found. "Will it be 2015? 2020? 2025? I wish it would just happen, and then we could all stop agonising about it and get back to dentistry," said Adam Barnes, a dentist from Iowa. The report examines in detail the relationship between the two countries and finds that in some important fields, China has already surpassed America. A summary of the findings is presented below.

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Ai Weiwei ... has been close to the red line of Chinese law. As long as Ai Weiwei continuously marches forward, he will inevitably touch the red line one day... Ai Weiwei will be judged by history, but he will pay a price for his special choice

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3D Sex and Zen: Extreme Ecstasy beat Avatar and Lust, Caution as it smashed records as the highest 3D debut in Hong Kong and reclaimed its crown as the highest-grossing Category III film opening.

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PG Lips: Chinese tea plantation seeks virgins to pick leaves with their MOUTHS

It is billed as the most refined tea in the world, and possibly with some justification – the leaves are picked by a group of virgins using just their lips.

The leaves, gathered on lush mountainsides in central China, must be in their first flush and are dropped into baskets hanging from the pickers’ necks.

Legend has it that the leaves used to be picked by fairies with their mouths. When boiling water is poured on the leaves, fairies ascend amid the steam into the sky.

Now new pickers are being sought, with adverts in Gushi, Henan province, specifying that ‘applicants must be virgins’ and offering payment of £50 a day, a fortune in China.

They must also have at least a C-cup bra size – virginity and curviness are believed to promote well-being and purity.

The local job advert, which has caused controversy in the area, read: 'Lip tea is hiring full-time tea-leaf pickers.

'A prospective employee has to be a woman with no sexual experience, a bra size of at least a C cup, and no scar or wound visible on her body with a uniform.'

But this method has come under fire as being a practice that objectifies and disrespects females, claims the firm denies.

The recruitment is rigorous - the company looks for the 'purest', 'cleanest' and 'strongest' virgins as they are the key to the tea’s success.

Li Yong, a spokesman for the Jiuhua plantation, said: 'It is much harder work than it looks.

'They have to cleanse themselves completely before they start working and perform a special exercise programme to build up their necks and lips.

'It’s a long standing tradition - it is a tradition we do not want to lose so need to pass on to new employees. We are currently recruiting 10 C cup virgin tea pickers.

The girls are not allowed to touch the tea leaves with their hands at any point and all the picking has to be done through the lips.

The leaves are put into the baskets which are called Chaliuqing and have to made from the freshest willow twigs and also not touched by hand.

Mr Li confirmed the recruitment information was true. He also said an upcoming tea culture festival would include a performance of virgins picking tea leaves with their lips.

'We are hiring 10 girls to perform the traditional ritual to pass on interest in the tradition and keep it alive. We will auction off the tea leaves that they pick,' Mr Li added.

The so-called 'lip tea' comes from a legend that tea leaves used to be picked by fairies with their mouths.

When boiling water is poured on to these tea leaves, fairies will ascend amidst steam into the sky.

Tea made from these leaves has a refreshing aroma and taste and can even cure diseases and aid weight loss, claims the firm.

Last century some Chinese tea sellers experimented with the idea of ‘tea in front of breasts’, involving a group of 16-year-old virgins started picking tea and sleeping with it on their breasts during the night.

The next day it was thought the tea leaves would have picked up enough of the virgins scent to have health and wellbeing benefits.

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Good morning. We're editing our report which caused us so much hassle with officials/thugs late last week. Expected to air 15GMT.

Last week, we ran into trouble in Hunan looking at officials who kidnapped children and turned them around for sale to adoption centers.

With families in the US, Europe told these children were orphans when in fact, they were not. A serious case of human trafficking.

...

One villager told us officials would fine them $10,000USD for violating 1-child policy, fine is $7,600USD, they pocket difference.

If farmers couldn't afford fine, then officials would try to take their children from them.

It got so out of control officials started taking children who WERE NOT violations of the 1-child policy!

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The safeguarding of journalists' legal rights is once again in the spotlight following two separate cases where reporters were threatened and abused while investigating potential government scandals.

Local police in Xianghe county, Hebei Province, refused to protect reporters from the Xinhua News Agency when they were threatened on Sunday while investigating a case involving the transfer of more than 24 hectares of farmland.

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Cisco, the maker of Internet routing gear, customized its technology to help China track members of the Falun Gong spiritual movement, according to a federal lawsuit filed last week by members of the movement.

The lawsuit, which relies on internal sales materials, also said that Cisco had tried to market its equipment to the Chinese government by using inflammatory language that stemmed from the Maoist Cultural Revolution.

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The lawsuit challenges Cisco’s assertion that it did not help design the firewall system or customize technology that it sold to meet government surveillance and censorship requirements.

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The lawsuit states that other documents lay out design suggestions to the Chinese Ministry of Public Security on how to pursue dissidents effectively.

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Gunmen have attacked a military base in the Pakistani city of Karachi, killing at least 11 soldiers, officials say.

The attackers are now holding hostages, including Chinese military personnel, at the Mehran naval aviation base.

Eight hours after the incident began, blasts and gunfire were heard as security forces brought in more troops and tackled the militants.

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:

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MalcolmMoore: Wikileaks China docs include embassy cables from June 3, 5, 1989.

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I am so interested in those.

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Wikileaks: no bloodshed inside Tiananmen Square, cables claim

Secret cables from the United States embassy in Beijing have shown there was no bloodshed inside Tiananmen Square when China put down student pro-democracy demonstrations 22 years ago.

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The testimony contradicts the reports of several journalists who were in Beijing at the time, who described soldiers "charging" into unarmed civilians and suggests the death toll on the night may be far lower than the thousands previously thought.
In 2009, James Miles, who was the BBC correspondent in Beijing at the time, admitted that he had "conveyed the wrong impression" and that "there was no massacre on Tiananmen Square. Protesters who were still in the square when the army reached it were allowed to leave after negotiations with martial law troops [ ...] There was no Tiananmen Square massacre, but there was a Beijing massacre".

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:

quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:

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MalcolmMoore: Wikileaks China docs include embassy cables from June 3, 5, 1989.

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I am so interested in those.

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Apparently, these have been released.

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Wikileaks: no bloodshed inside Tiananmen Square, cables claim

Secret cables from the United States embassy in Beijing have shown there was no bloodshed inside Tiananmen Square when China put down student pro-democracy demonstrations 22 years ago.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8555142/Wikileaks-no-bloodshed-inside-Tiananmen-Square-cables-claim.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/8555896/Wikileaks-Tiananmen-cables.html

Not entirely new, as the article points out

quote:

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The testimony contradicts the reports of several journalists who were in Beijing at the time, who described soldiers "charging" into unarmed civilians and suggests the death toll on the night may be far lower than the thousands previously thought.
In 2009, James Miles, who was the BBC correspondent in Beijing at the time, admitted that he had "conveyed the wrong impression" and that "there was no massacre on Tiananmen Square. Protesters who were still in the square when the army reached it were allowed to leave after negotiations with martial law troops [ ...] There was no Tiananmen Square massacre, but there was a Beijing massacre".

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
According to a recent survey China is the happiest country in the world.

Numbers 2-5 are, respectively: N. Korea, Cuba, Iran and Venezuela. South Korea is number 152, and the U.S. ranks last at 203.

The survey was commissioned by North Korea's Chosun Central TV.

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Holy shit is this true? This isn't some sort of conspiracy gotcha sarcasm/prank/joke directed at me is it?

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
Holy shit is this true? This isn't some sort of conspiracy gotcha sarcasm/prank/joke directed at me is it?

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In September 1989, the Chinese government arranged an interview in which I told about what I personally witnessed and went through on Tiananmen Square on the early morning of June 4, 1989.
...
I knew clearly that nobody died when Tiananmen Square was cleared. But the purpose of this interview would not be clarify the facts, which will only be exploited as the tools and methods of the government's political goals. If I did that interview, I would be a willing government tool and thus suffer bad social impact. At the time, the whole world believed that the martial-law troops had carried out a massacre right on Tiananmen Square. Some June 4th participants who became overseas exiles were trying to establish heroic images for themselves and therefore they distorted the facts, they lied and they exaggerated the blood flowing like rivers on Tiananmen Square (Wuer Kaixi, Chai Ling, Li Lu and others were all like that).

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Derek Williams and I were driven in a pair of army jeeps right through the square, almost along its full length, and into the Forbidden City. Dawn was just breaking. There were hundreds of troops in the square ... But we saw no bodies, injured people, ambulances or medical personnel—in short, nothing to even suggest, let alone prove, that a "massacre" had recently occurred in that place... some have found it uncomfortable that all this conforms with what the Chinese government has always claimed, perhaps with a bit of sophistry: that there was no "massacre in Tiananmen Square." But there's no question many people were killed by the army that night around Tiananmen Square, and on the way to it — mostly in the western part of Beijing. Maybe, for some, comfort can be taken in the fact that the government denies that, too.

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
But you're not disputing there were deaths outside Tiananmen, right?

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Beijing police said they had released the 54-year-old "because of his good attitude in confessing his crimes" and a chronic illness, Xinhua news agency reported.

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Beijing to Shanghai Railway: diary of a 4h 48m journey
China opens its 820-mile Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail link to the public this week ahead of schedule, just three years after construction began. Our China Correspondent, Peter Foster, was given an advance preview and details the journey.
...
There’s something about trains that lend themselves to fact-spotting. Here’s one for you: China has laid more high-speed rail track in the past decade than all new rail installed in Western countries combined over the past half-century. Or what about this mind-boggler? According to the World Bank, the amount of freight hauled on China’s railways increased in 2010 by an amount equivalent to the entire freight carried by Britain, France, Germany and Poland. The Beijing-Shanghai link is expected to free up older tracks to carry an additional 50m tons of freight every year.

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China built this Shanghai-Beijing line in 39 months (ahead of schedule) at a cost £21.4bn, making it China’s most expensive engineering megaproject, surpassing even the Three Gorges Dam (£19.8bn).
China is still investing £70bn a year in its railways while Britain wonders if it can find less than half that amount between now and 2032.

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Chinese officials stole $120 billion, fled mainly to US

Thousands of corrupt Chinese government officials have stolen more than $120bn (£74bn) and fled overseas, mainly to the US, according to a report released by China's central bank.
...
The study said corruption inside China was severe enough to threaten the nation's economic and political stability.

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Official CCP line declares Jiang 30% dead but 70% alive.

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The public, however, has not been in the mood to forgive anyone. A user-created poll on Weibo asking people their opinion of the way the accident has been handled has already accrued over 55,000 responses, and they are not good:

Are you satisfied with the way the Chinese government has handled the Wenzhou accident?

Very dissastisfied, [the government has] simply shown disrespect for human life. – 93%, 51,779 votes
Dissatisfied, the emergency response has been poor. – 4%, 2,003 votes
Decent, it’s been about average, they saved a few people – 1%, 592 votes
Satisfied, but I’m just satisfied with the way our countrymen saved themselves [i.e., satisfied with the people's response but not the government's] – 2%, 855 votes
Satisfied, the government is doing a good job. – 1%, 290 votes
Another poll on Weibo asked people whether they felt the disaster was “natural” [in this case, they just mean unavoidable] or man-made. 98% — nearly 18,000 voters so far — chose “man-made.”

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
I have a pet theory that generally all of China's good (at least net good) revolutionaries (Sun Yat Sen, Chiang Kai Shek, Lu Xun, Confucious, Ai Wei Wei) all have facial hair of some kind. While their truly bad ones do not (Mao, Hong Xiu Quan, etc)

The ones who don't quite fit that mold are Deng Xiao Ping, (though I'm still on the fence about him), Zhou En Lai, and Peng De Huai.

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Deng's only official title was President of the National Bridge players association Bridge players tell me this makes perfect sense, you need to be a political genius to understand Chinese bridge rules.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
BlBl:

Hmmm, I was thinking about your post, and it seems that I get hung up on relatively simple questions like, "what is traditional Chinese culture?"

Even "what is Chinese culture?" is difficult when we consider minorities (such as Deng Xiaopeng being Hakka) which may exist, have been assimilated, or have simply left China proper. It sometimes feels to me that the degree of differences between regions of China is more akin to that of Europe than America, with the vast differences in living standards, dialects, and foods. So the valid comparison might be less to American culture and more to say European culture.

Then there's the historical element. I admire the role Buddhism has in moderating Chinese society, but is it Chinese or Indian? The usual answer is that Chinese Buddhism has been in China long enough, but then we're down to weighing how long things like fundamentalist Christianity has been in China and whether that is long enough.

And looking back at the examples, do I actually consider the popularity of taking photos with foreigners a cultural thing or just a symptom of unfamiliarity? When I was in Istanbul and people from European tourists to presumably Turkish schoolgirls were taking pictures with us, is that cultural?

Or when looking at politeness, the thing I like a lot about Cantonese is the brutal slang, straightforward talk, and the lack of hypocritical political correctness. That isn't an across-the-board rule though, you do have the passive aggressive round-about speech in more formal occasions or in the mainland, but what is more polite?

Some random thoughts I guess.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:
BlBl:

Hmmm, I was thinking about your post, and it seems that I get hung up on relatively simple questions like, "what is traditional Chinese culture?"

Even "what is Chinese culture?" is difficult when we consider minorities (such as Deng Xiaopeng being Hakka) which may exist, have been assimilated, or have simply left China proper. It sometimes feels to me that the degree of differences between regions of China is more akin to that of Europe than America, with the vast differences in living standards, dialects, and foods. So the valid comparison might be less to American culture and more to say European culture.

Then there's the historical element. I admire the role Buddhism has in moderating Chinese society, but is it Chinese or Indian? The usual answer is that Chinese Buddhism has been in China long enough, but then we're down to weighing how long things like fundamentalist Christianity has been in China and whether that is long enough.

And looking back at the examples, do I actually consider the popularity of taking photos with foreigners a cultural thing or just a symptom of unfamiliarity? When I was in Istanbul and people from European tourists to presumably Turkish schoolgirls were taking pictures with us, is that cultural?

Or when looking at politeness, the thing I like a lot about Cantonese is the brutal slang, straightforward talk, and the lack of hypocritical political correctness. That isn't an across-the-board rule though, you do have the passive aggressive round-about speech in more formal occasions or in the mainland, but what is more polite?

Some random thoughts I guess.

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Nailing down traditional Chinese culture is about as easy as nailing down Jello. I guess what is really eating me is that many of these cultural mores have flat out disappeared, or are in the processing of dying.

Have you ever seen the movie King of Masks? While his art isn't really in danger of dying, many people know how to perform with paper masks, but his family, and millions like it all had legacies of things like that, that defined them, and they were beautiful things. Those things were all taken away, and so pointlessly.

The South Chinese are definitely more blunt, brutally honest, and that is refreshing, I don't want to see that go either, though there are many ex-pats who do. Yet this departure from politeness in Beijing for example hasn't been a natural progression, nor has it been replaced by a more useful cultural practice, rather it's easier to be a jerk to people. Being polite and dignified take a lot of effort and time to get right, who wants to even try anymore? Well, I do.

As a missionary in Taiwan, I thrived on that particular custom. Many of companions were pulling their hair out because they hated that the Taiwanese would not tell it to you straight, almost ever. But to me, they *were* being completely honest, you just had to stop plugging in American interpretations to those very Asian statements. When you stopped trying to pry the truth out, suddenly conversations were a real treat.

I don't really know how to describe the difference, but if you ever get the chance, go visit the slightly rural areas of Taiwan. Tai Nan, Nan Tou, Miao Li, Xin Zhu. There's this microcosm of a lost China that is still there to a large degree. You look at the Chinese food being served and you think, "Bwuh?! I had no idea!" You go to the miaos and think, "Holy crap, there are sooooo many people here." Of course most of them are doing it just cuz they don't really want to, it's just expected to be done.

When you help them, they hang on to you like you were gold coins. It's completely normal for them to go way out of their way to see you, they don't even think it's a big deal. In Beijing though, it just feels so much less intimate. They are still Chinese, and very friendly, funny, but something big is missing.

I'm back to rambling again, I think I just need to get myself a job over there and then I will stop missing it so durn much.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
I finally found that documentary I've been looking for for a long time now.

"China Rises" on Discovery channel.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
I finally found that documentary I've been looking for for a long time now.

"China Rises" on Discovery channel.

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Never heard of it, what intrigues you about it?
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
It's pretty well detailed, goes to all sorts of places, talks about alot of stuff, its pretty cool.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Mildly Not Safe for Work but tame by anime standards, moe version of Green Dam Girl that I find absolutely hilarious
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Ai Wei Wei shows up in part 4.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
BlackBlade:

Just to let you know, I saw the previous post, but I'm not sure what kind of opinion I have on the matter.

I never really got the impression that Beijing was particularly polite either (by Western definitions of polite). Whether thats due to the size of the city, the classic "To the people of Beijing, everyone else is a subordinate; to the people of Guangdong, everyone else is a northerner; to the people of Shanghai, everyone else is a country bumpkin." atitudes, or something cultural I couldn't say.

On one hand, the archetypes of the loud and boisterous Beijing cab driver and the straight-forward plainspoken hutong dweller populate many a expats book or blog. On the other hand, I really wouldn't know if Beijingers were more polite, say, during the Cultural Revolution, during the Qing dynasty, or during the Ming.

In short, I dunno
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
(separately, while I've watched many a Hong Kong film and feel I have a good coverage of at least the 1980s+ films, unfortunately my mainland viewing is still pretty modest due to recent available time)
 

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Posted by pooka (Member # 5003) on :
 
I'm trying to find a thread there used to be about Chinese language. My search fu isn't working.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Lower part of the first and a bit of the second page of this maybe?
 

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Posted by pooka (Member # 5003) on :
 
It was one BlackBlade set up for studying and practicing. Spacepook is taking Mandarin and I'm along for the ride.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 

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Originally posted by pooka:
It was one BlackBlade set up for studying and practicing. Spacepook is taking Mandarin and I'm along for the ride.

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:

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Originally posted by pooka:
It was one BlackBlade set up for studying and practicing. Spacepook is taking Mandarin and I'm along for the ride.

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I cannot for the life of me find it either. :\

If you'd like to setup a new one, I'd be happy to participate. Also, if spacepook or yourself wants time practicing, I'd be happy to talk over Skype, or else respond on facebook or some other platform. Honestly the biggest obstacle to learning Mandarin is having opportunities to practice speaking/writing.

Though to be completely frank, I think the first two years should be dedicated to speaking only, with not a character in sight, beyond maybe 100 basic characters.

People who insist on learning both congruently usually end up doing neither very well, and I include myself as exhibit A.

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This, however, was no movement of frustrated migrant workers or disgruntled peasants thrown off their land, but an orderly, 12,000-strong crocodile of China’s new well-to-do; smartly-dressed and smartphone-savvy, texting pictures of their defiance all around the world.
China’s authorities deal with a 100,000 'disturbances’ a year, but the protests in Dalian last weekend were different, forcing the local government to announce the closure of the £950m factory that generates £200m of tax revenues a year.

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“Sure, I got the warning message [from the university authorities],” a 21-year-old student who agreed to meet on Dalian’s seafront, obscured in a bustling crowds of tourist said. “But I ignored it. It was right for people to go. As citizens we must have courage to express ourselves. It is our duty.” Joshua Rosenzweig, honorary researcher at Hong’s Kong’s Dui Hua foundation who has been chronicling dissent in China for almost a decade, says the Dalian-style protesters differ from traditional dissidents like Liu Xiaobo, the 2010 Nobel peace prize winner who was jailed for 11 years for writing and circulating the Charter 08 petition attacking one-party rule.

“Over the last five years activism has taken a new direction in China,” says Mr Rosenzweig, “There had been a move away from the classical mode of attacking the system itself, to more issue-based causes like this chemical factory in Dalian, that people can identify and sympathise with much more directly.” China’s rulers might take little comfort from this distinction, since participants at the Dalian rally seemed clear that they were using an issue that has widespread public support to attack the system while avoiding serious charge of 'subversion’.

“It was like a carnival, everyone was so excited. People were coming out of the restaurants to give us tea and water, they were doing it spontaneously.

It felt like there was revolutionary atmosphere. It was the most exciting thing I’ve ever done,” added the student.

“People were talking about 'June Fourth’ [the date of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989],” he added, “There were some officials walking in the Square, saying if you don’t disperse, the square will be cleared by force, but the people said it’s different now.

“Back then, they sent tanks in to clear the square, but people said they wouldn’t dare now, the slaughter would be too much.” Perhaps, but it is clear from the frantic attempt to censor news and pictures of the protest in the Chinese media, that the government is doing everything in its power to stop other cities getting wind of Dalian’s big news: that a street protest in China has actually won the day.

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Both the beating of the reporters and the missing CCTV program generated furious speculation in Dalian, with blogs and tweets going up faster than censors could contain them: What were residents not being told? What higher hand was protecting the factory from scrutiny? Was the danger so much worse than anyone imagined?

The former party boss whose tenure coincided with the project's approval, Xia Deren, was widely despised in Dalian as corrupt and inattentive to popular will -- in marked contrast with his predecessor, the charismatic and beloved Bo Xilai, who had effectively positioned himself as the people's champion. Did some scandal involving Xia explain why the factory had landed in Dalian? In the absence of credible facts coming through the media or other official channels, dire scenarios circulated online: Contact with contaminated seawater would kill you within eight minutes; a generation of Dalian children would be born with severe deformities.

In retrospect, the sense of existential peril was a bit exaggerated. A campaigner from Greenpeace East Asia, who was not involved in organizing the protest, noted the actual potential impacts, most likely skin or eye irritation, were somewhat less than those feared. Yet there was a real risk, and the people of this otherwise safe and comfortable city had no regular, trusted channel to press the issue. And so they marched.

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China to cut income tax for 60 million people
China's government is attempting to boost spending and fuel sustainable economic growth though income tax cuts. Only 8 percent of Chinese will now pay income tax.

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Helping someone to kill themselves - known as assisted suicide - is a crime in Britain which carries a sentence of up to 14 years imprisonment.

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A man convicted of murder in what he called an assisted suicide was sentenced on Monday to 20 years to life in prison in the death of the New York motivational speaker who hired him.

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
Tibetan monks receive harsh prison sentences for assisting in self-immolation protest.

I don't understand the extreme animosity the Chinese gov't feels toward these Tibetan protesters. Is the idea of a self-sufficient, Buddhist Tibet really that threatening? Or is it because to back down in the face of protest would be to lose face?

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Under Canadian law, it's illegal to counsel, aid or abet a person to commit suicide, and anyone convicted of the offence could be imprisoned for up to 14 years

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
A guy hiring a killer to help him commit insurance fraud seems worlds removed from not only what is usually thought of as assisted suicide let alone the case of self-immolation as political speech.

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Originally posted by Mucus:

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Originally posted by SenojRetep:
A guy hiring a killer to help him commit insurance fraud seems worlds removed from not only what is usually thought of as assisted suicide let alone the case of self-immolation as political speech.

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Huh? It's suicide. It's assisted.
How on Earth is it remotely removed from assisted suicide?

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Originally posted by Mucus:
2009, yo. (Although, I wouldn't be surprised if it has gotten worse)

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The United States has long imported its food and fuel, its cars and clothes. Now the faltering economy has sparked a push for another type of import: shoppers.

For the first time, lawmakers, businesses and even White House officials are courting consumers from cash-rich countries such as China, India and Brazil to fill the nation’s shopping malls and pick up the slack for penny-pinching Americans. They are wooing travelers with enticements such as coupons, beauty pageants and promises of visa reform. The payoff, they say, could be significant: 1.3 million new jobs and an $859 billion shot in the arm for the economy over the next decade.

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That’s because even though foreign shoppers are spending money in the United States, their purchases are counted as exports on the country’s balance sheet. This year, their spending is up 13 percent compared with last year, to nearly $87 billion.

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Guo Hui, 37, who lives in Beijing, recently returned home from a two-week tour of Yellowstone National Park, Houston and Los Angeles. He estimated he spent $2,000 to rent a car and pay for gas and lodging for himself and his wife. Then there was the Ed Hardy T-shirt, the Apple laptop, the HP laptop, even baby food and formula for his child, totaling an additional $6,000.

Still, Guo said prices are significantly cheaper than in China — a pair of Adidas sneakers costs only $25 at a U.S. outlet mall.

“For that price in China, you can’t even buy counterfeits,” he said.

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Last week, Rep. Joseph J. Heck (R-Nev.) introduced a bill aimed at cutting the time it takes to get a tourist visa to 12 days, citing waits at consulates in key markets that can stretch to more than 100 days.

The State Department has pledged to reduce wait times for appointments to 30 days, and a spokesman said it is adding a “significant” number of staffers in Brazil and China to keep up with demand. The bill is awaiting a committee hearing.

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
Makes me curious about the switch in perspectives, for a while it really seemed that the Chinese overseas community was more anti-china/anti communist but with the opening and the reforms and the growing numbers of youth going overseas to study and then return home to bring their expertise to the Chinese economy it really seems to have done a 180 here.

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Well, that's half true, half not.

The problem is that there is no real one "Chinese overseas" community. Rather, you have a bunch of perspectives from immigrants from Hong Kong, from Taiwan, and from the mainland. Each of these has different perspectives on the situation and different cultural backgrounds. There is less of a shift in perspective than a shift in the proportions of the immigrants (and as you imply, this person probably won't even immigrate).

(There's also a difference between anti-China and anti-CCP which I think is more accurate)

In my grandfather's time, you're looking at people that had to leave China due to land reforms and the Communist revolution, that generation will never forgive no matter how much the CCP tried (and they did).

In my parents's time (60s and 70s), immigration is dominated by a Cantonese-speaking diaspora from Hong Kong. Growing up with access to a free press, they won't be too CCP friendly, not during the cultural revolution, and not after Tiananmen Square.

Toss in the Chinese citizens that are immigrating because they're poor (and want to work hard in a new life) or because they're being persecuted (Falun Gong) and you're going to get a community which is not CCP friendly.

As we move into the current day, you hit the post-90s generation, who literally grew up after Tiananmen Square, didn't grow up with access to a free press through Hong Kong, are from the mainland, and most insidiously, usually aren't poor but are instead well-off and politically well-connected.

In a way, Canadian immigration policy has backfired. Instead of welcoming hard working poor immigrants, we've cranked up the bar. Example: instead of giving bursaries to poor students we've cranked up tuition fees for international students and look to them as a revenue source rather than as an investment.

So in increasing proportions, we get the sons and daughters of corrupt CCP members and well-connected businessmen that can afford to send their children abroad in order to establish a safety net for themselves and for their ill-gotten gains. That is not to say that we don't still get a lot of very talented and skilled people, but the quality has definitely gone down.

In this section of the population, you're a lot less likely to see criticism of the CCP because
a) they may very well *have* to go back
b) they have relatives that benefit from the current policies of the CCP
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
What Mucus said. Also, realize that you are talking to a Mainlander. Many, if not most people, are going to be pleased to hear a positive assessment of their country and how they are doing. His statement that you are well informed should also be taken in the light that that sort of compliment is very much in line with, "Oh, your Chinese is very good."

He might completely mean it, but he also might just be polite and letting you do all the talking. Many Chinese believe Westerners love to hear themselves talk, and so will listen patiently and act as if they are interested, nodding their head and smiling frequently. Again, he might have actually been excited to hear your ideas, but you should be careful.

My rule of thumb is, if you can get the Chinese person to talk 35% as much, if not more than you, then they really enjoyed the conversation.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
He *did* bring up the topic and asked for my facebook/msn and expressed interest in talking more

Regarding anti-china vs anti ccp, I think pre-1990's this isn't too much of a meaningful distinction to make, but in a way I have some difficulty expressing. More like, a general feeling of dissatisifaction in how the country and society as a whole has turned/transformed to where I'm more using 'china' as a geographical vague generalized shorthand. In which they're not just criticizing party elites, but the feeling the society has embraced it as well.

In much the same way people in the states say "screw this country I'm moving to X".

Now "ill gotten" I consider a little unfair, its not like being a Russian kleptocracy of where the former intelligence members became oligarchs in the Ukraine or wherever (generalizing), plenty of well off or affluent in China were dirt poor themselves before the Deng Xiaoping reforms and probably at least a majority contributed to the economic growth in the process of becomming millionaires. People who got rich say, by being the brother of a party member and got access to land where he built a factory that provides jobs or something for example; unethical as hell sure but that's the trade off for something good from it.

Compared to say Enron where CEOs made dozens of millions from betting against their company and depriving their workers of billions in benefits and pensions when it went bankrupt.

Not that there aren't any who did probably use wholly illegal means to get rich or become politically affluent and have "ill gotten gains" but I would personally like some hard numbers to see what the proportions are before I would generalize the situation.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Blayne: Perhaps articles discussing that China and Russia were recently rated the most corrupt places to do business would be of use. Also statistics on China's billionaires/millionaires and the percentage that are members of the CCP.

I'm glad he apparently enjoyed the conversation, did he offer you *his* facebook, or did he ask for yours?
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
The problem here is that I accept a certain level of nuance in what is acceptable vs unacceptable corruption, partly regarding moral relativism of where China, being a gift giving culture may account for a large part of it.

Simply being a part member isn't really a guarantee of a silver spoon, I recall that a millionare interviewed in the "China Rising" program talked with one who was a member of the red guards originally but was poor and obscure. I'ld consider his success, even if it involved using political connections to help leverage his way there as acceptable since it brought tens of thousands of jobs with it, and as part of the cherry on top the dude apparantly took relatively good care of his workers.

Its something that happens in every country and every political system, if your friends, related, or connected to the political system, and it helps you become wealthy, but in the process of doing so helps people and increases the economy, then I consider the gains acceptably albeit unethically gotten.

Using political connections to say illegally bulldoze a neighbourhood to build factories is something I am not so tolerant of however.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Acceptable corruption? Is that like acceptable losses? Being a gift giving culture doesn't figure into it as much as you are asserting. Sure the Chinese give each other money (more especially children) during Chinese New Year, and the buy beautiful things to give as house warming gifts. They also have a less stringent sense of nepotism. But corruption is corruption, and they are not stupid. Just because culturally they don't find corruption so bad, doesn't change its effects one iota. Saudi Arabians have a stronger sense of patriarchy in their dealings, doesn't mean it's OK they keep women down on the way they do, no matter how OK the majority of the populace feels about it. It certainly changes a feminist's strategy if they were operating out there, but it doesn't mean that corruption isn't bad for the economy and infrastructural development.

Who cares if a CCP senior member, embezzles money and picks up lucrative government contracts, greases the wheels with bribes to local officials, cuts corners on material, creates some jobs, and creates a shoddy product that is dangerous for consumers? It's bad.

[ November 03, 2011, 06:48 PM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Well your kinda strawmanning there through, as I said, in of itself I don't think having political connections to get ahead is so unacceptable, everyone does it all the time.

Ever had a dad who had a friend on the review board of some Ivy league school get you in even if your marks weren't quite in the top percentile or whatever to get in?

Happens all the time and really, I don't really care, if you look throughtout history its kinda the norm that only recently started getting frowned at.

China is still a developing country, it *knows* that there's *too muc* going on I'm certain its working on clamping down on it. But lets not jump on all and any forms here, focus on the bigger fish like the dudes who move to canada for tax evasion purposes.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Blayne: It's not a strawman, that actually happens all the time. Why do you think there are real legitimate fears on their high speed rail lines? And no, I've never been afforded special privileges in employment or getting into college because my parents pulled strings. I wouldn't ask them to either. Knowing somebody who is on the admission board, who recognizes you will be a good investment is different than sending them a chunk of change and they then pull the strings and that becomes the norm. Does that happen here in the US, yes, all the freaking time, but it's just as wrong.

It's not only recently this has been frowned on, throughout history there have been people who believe merit ought to be the prime consideration in admitting a candidate, just as there have been corrupt officials in every civilization.

The CCP clamps down on corruption when it blows up in their faces, they do damage control. They don't do nearly enough to prevent it because not enough people are willing to stop it. When enough people are harmed by poor standards and a lack of something comparable to the EPA, then you will see real solid improvement in the quality of goods and infrastructural development coming out of and in China.

If you think the guys moving to Canada are the real big fish, you really haven't read some of the biographies of China's billionaires. I have, and a lot of them have a story that goes like this.

"Opened up a business selling recycled parts and repairing air-conditioners, business began to thrive, bought out by a bigger company, made their first few million, founded an electronics company, multi-billionaire status within 2-5 years."

That does not happen without corruption, but I'll accept outliers. The fact it fairly closely describes several billionaires and that so many millionaires in China become so incredibly rapidly speaks to corruption at all levels of government.

Not to mention that when they do ding somebody for overt corruption, they often are not arrested, just dismissed, and they take much of their money with them after paying a slap on the wrist fine.
 

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Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
 

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throughout history there have been people who believe merit ought to be the prime consideration in admitting a candidate

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Originally posted by TomDavidson:

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throughout history there have been people who believe merit ought to be the prime consideration in admitting a candidate

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Ironically, ancient China is actually famous for this, being given the credit for civil service exams.

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Corruption by Communist officials is routinely named in opinion polls as a top source of public discontent, and Hu said the anti-graft fight was the key to "winning or losing public support and the life or death of the party".

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and the Bank Of China itself measures that at least $120 billion has been stolen by corrupt officials since the mid-1990s to overseas destinations, let alone what's been blown on luxuries and mistresses or stashed within China.

The space of the debate seems to me to be between corruption being ridiculous and mind-bogglingly ridiculous

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
... its not like being a Russian kleptocracy of where the former intelligence members became oligarchs in the Ukraine ... to say Enron where CEOs made dozens of millions from betting against their company...

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I love the sample space.

Hey, you know that crumbling imperial power, wracked by income inequality, tear gassing protesters, and stuffed with crony capitalists? China may be doing better at corruption than that country. Also, China's doing better than Russia
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
The anectdote I've read is that there's this russian dude, at one of the forums I frequent, who works in Sozhou and feels he's safer walking around at night there than he feels walking alone during the day in Moscow.

But there isn\t really a distinction over if he asked to add me/add him, he lent me his laptop so I could add myself through his facebook page as he couldn't find himself from my laptop.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Cool.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Gotta love Ai Wei Wei.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Well this is adorable.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Wu Kan continues to fight on.

I want to believe if I was there, I'd be one of those neighbors bringing food to them everyday. Good for them.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Yeah, it's been interesting.

I can't see it ending well, the appeal to the central government is something that has happened in previous dynasties. That said, if there is going to be a positive change in Chinese society, Guangdong is a good historical place to start.
 

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Posted by JanitorBlade (Member # 12343) on :
 
Mucus: Sure has. If you want to start an uprising in China it's best to get Guangzhou involved.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
That said, if I was there or anywhere around there, I know I'd be leaving, perhaps to Hong Kong. Uprisings are bloody and dirty business.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Might find this interesting, personal notes from that reporter
https://plus.google.com/106468378347740234551/posts/cGLTZvczzWR
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
"It's not clear" is indeed a classic Chinese response. Those notes depress me, but I'm glad he managed to get in and do some reporting. People in China need to know what is happening, and hopefully that discontent will spread. It really is cruel how many of these people were given land by the government and told at the same time "You can't leave". You have to get a permit to live in a city. But then when developers start eyeballing their tiny plot, they are basically shoved out of the way.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Chinese Atheists Lured to Find Jesus at U.S. Christian Schools


Pretty disgusting that this kind of thing still goes on these days. This commentary probably sums up my thoughts
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
If parents do not want their children to be proselyted to they don't need to send them to those particular schools. As for the argument that Chinese children are totally unprepared for religion and then they have it foisted on them at that impressionable age, well to be honest they are being raised in an artificially areligious environment. There are definitely churches in China, but they are not allowed to openly proselyte. When I visit mainland China and people have walked up to me and asked me about my faith I follow the law and do not invite them to attend my church.

Having been there I have definitely seen many Chinese people discuss getting in touch with their culture, including religion. With this increase in quality of life, they, like everybody else, try to find happiness in possessions and prestige. But for many it just doesn't work. Because religion is artificially closed off to them it's no wonder they are enamored with it when exposed.

While I strongly disagree with the doctrine many of these schools are surely preaching, I'm not surprised they are having so much success. But the argument that kids are young an impressionable and therefore the religious need to keep their ideas to themselves smacks of not liking the ideas, rather than not liking the mechanism.

Again, there are plenty of schools that could setup a program sans religion and offer those services to Chinese people.

If the government is truly concerned with children being tricked into being heavily proselyted to, then they can educate their populace and let the marketplace of ideas open to religion. When there is freedom to discuss, then people will see Christianity for what it is, and it won't come as such a shock when they come to the United States and suddenly you are in control of your own beliefs and can believe as you please.

I absolutely understand though that many of these groups expressly want to convert students so that they will go back to China converted and spread those ideas in the mainland until the government is forced to take those restrictions off.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
If parents do not want their children to be proselyted to they don't need to send them to those particular schools.

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As for the argument that Chinese children are totally unprepared for religion and then they have it foisted on them at that impressionable age, well to be honest they are being raised in an artificially areligious environment.

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While I strongly disagree with the doctrine many of these schools are surely preaching, I'm not surprised they are having so much success. But the argument that kids are young an impressionable and therefore the religious need to keep their ideas to themselves smacks of not liking the ideas, rather than not liking the mechanism.

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
The government should be able to regulate this sort of thing, and immediately black list schools that are actively lying about the details of their program.

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... if the first wrong were rectified the second would not be occurring.

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Cheaper, more affordable housing could also unlock the savings of China's working-class families, unleashing greater consumer demand and helping to rebalance the global economy. Investment long bottled up in idle real estate could flow to more productive pursuits. These adjustments have been put off too long. This is why at least some of China's leaders appear determined to force a correction despite the risks. But they know they are walking a razor's edge.

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For years analysts have warned of a looming real estate bubble in China, but the predicted downturn, the bursting of that bubble, never occurred -- that is, until now. In a telling scene two months ago, Shanghai property developers started slashing prices on their latest luxury condos by up to one-third. Crowds of owners who had recently bought apartments at full price converged on sales offices throughout the city, demanding refunds. Some angry investors went on a rampage, breaking windows and smashing showrooms.

Shanghai homeowners are hardly the only ones getting nervous. Sudden, steep price reductions are upending real estate markets across China. According to the property agency Homelink, new home prices in Beijing dropped 35 percent in November alone. And the free fall may continue for some time. Centaline, another leading property agency, estimates that developers have built up 22 months' worth of unsold inventory in Beijing and 21 months' worth in Shanghai. Everyone from local landowners to Chinese speculators and international investors are now worrying that these discounts indicate that "the biggest bubble of the century," as it was called earlier this year, has just popped, with serious consequences not only for one of the world's most promising economies -- but internationally as well.

What makes the future look particularly bleak is the lack of escape routes. If Chinese investors panic and rush for the exits, they will discover that in a market awash with developer discounts, buyers are very hard to find. The next three months will be a watershed moment for a Chinese investor class that has been flush with cash for years but lacking a place to put it. Instead of developing a more balanced, consumer-based economy, an entire regime of Beijing technocrats -- drunk on investment-led growth -- let the real estate market run red hot for too long and, when forced to act, lacked the credibility to cool the sector down. That failure threatens to undermine the country's continued economic rise.

Real estate woes are already sending shockwaves through China's broader economy. Chinese steel production -- driven in large part by construction -- is down 15 percent from June, and nearly one-third of Chinese steelmakers are now losing money. Chinese radio reports that half of all real estate agents in the southern city of Shenzhen have closed up shop. According to Centaline, more than 100 local government land auctions failed last month, and land sale revenues in Beijing are down 15 percent this year. Without them, local governments have no way to repay the heavy loans they have taken out to fund ambitious infrastructure projects, or the additional loans they will need to keep driving GDP growth next year.

In a few cities, such as coastal Wenzhou and coal-rich Ordos, the collapse in property prices has sparked a full-blown credit crisis, with reports of ruined businessmen leaping off building rooftops; some are fleeing the country. The central bank's decision on December 5 to lower the reserve requirement ratio for the first time in three years signaled a broader move to pump money into the economy. Beijing has directed banks in Wenzhou to extend emergency loans to troubled borrowers. Of course, officials could halt the sell-off simply by handing developers enough cheap loans to allow them to carry their inventory. But such a strategy risks re-inflating the bubble.

The impact of a housing downturn would have a significant impact globally. International suppliers who have been fueling China's construction boom -- iron-ore miners in Australia and Brazil, copper miners in Chile, lumber mills in Canada and Russia, and multinational equipment makers such as Caterpillar and Komatsu -- could be hard hit. Heavy losses on real estate and related lending could damage investment and consumer confidence, undermining the rising tide of Chinese demand that has been a much-needed growth engine for everything from Boeing airplanes to Volkswagen and GM automobiles to KFC and McDonald's fast food.

Understanding how this came to pass means parsing the host of distortions and mind games that characterize China's real estate market. Residential real estate construction now accounts for nearly ten percent of the country's total GDP -- four percentage points higher than it did at the peak of the U.S. housing bubble in 2005. Bullish analysts have long argued that large-scale urbanization and rapidly rising incomes warrant such an extraordinary boom.

But new urban residents are not the immediate drivers of China's recent run-up in real estate. Chinese investors, large and small, are the ones creating the market. For more than a decade, they have bet on longer-term demand trends by buying up multiple units -- often dozens at a time -- which they then leave empty with the belief that prices will rise. Estimates of such idle holdings range anywhere from 10 million to 65 million homes; no one really knows the exact number, but the visual impression created by vast "ghost" districts, filled with row upon row of uninhabited villas and apartment complexes, leaves one with a sense of investments with, literally, nothing inside.

The craze for vacant real estate is due in large part to a lack of attractive alternatives. Strict controls on capital outflows prevent most Chinese citizens from investing any real money abroad. Chinese bank deposits earn very low interest rates -- lower, for the past year now, than the rate of consumer inflation. The public sees the country's domestic stock exchanges, which have endured volatile ups and downs over the last few years, as little more than high-risk casinos. In contrast, real estate, which has not seen a sustained downturn since China first converted to private homeownership in the 1990s, has long looked like a sure bet.

Beijing's response to the global financial crisis added jet fuel to the fire. To maintain GDP growth of nearly ten percent during a massive downturn in global demand, China's leaders engineered a lending boom that expanded the country's money supply by roughly two-thirds. Real estate was already the preferred place for the Chinese to stash cash; now, investors had that much more cash to stash. Prices rose accordingly: In many locations, the cost of prime new properties doubled in just two years.

But this run of speculation has bid up the price of housing and left people who actually need a place to live in the lurch. Given the prices prevailing earlier this spring, the average wage earner in Beijing would have had to work 36 years to pay for an average home, compared to 18 years in Singapore, 12 in New York, and five in Frankfurt. The bidding war has further pushed developers to build ever more costly luxury properties that investors crave but few ordinary people can afford.

By the spring of 2010, China's leaders were growing increasingly worried that skyrocketing prices were sowing the seeds of social unrest. In response, Beijing imposed a series of cooling measures to rein in speculative demand. These included a stipulation for larger down payments, tougher qualifications for mortgages, residency requirements for home purchasers, and limits on the number of units a family could buy. Although these restrictions were mainly confined to Beijing and Shanghai, where central authorities hold the greatest sway, they were meant to send a clear signal that China's leaders wanted property prices to level off.

Real estate developers, however, believed they had seen this movie before. They had witnessed earlier cooling campaigns, as recently as early 2008. Each lasted a few months before reverting back to business as usual. Local governments depend on a healthy real estate market to generate revenue from land sales (as the state owns the land), and property development has long been a key driver of the GDP growth that the central government both demanded and prized. Let them see the effects of a slowdown, developers figured, and China's leaders would rush back in to support the sector. They always had before.

So the property developers bet against cooling. They continued borrowing and building, even in the face of a relatively soft and uncertain market. Until that point, Chinese developers had been able to move everything they built, usually pre-selling it before it was finished. But starting in the late spring of 2010, they began piling up substantial stocks of unsold inventory, for the day when the government would, so they thought, relent and demand would come surging back.

Because the industry kept on building, there has been no negative impact on GDP. Real estate investment has continued growing at nearly 30 percent annually. But inflation began to rise from 1.5 percent in January 2010 to a peak of 6.5 percent in July 2011, and authorities began to sweat. They broadened their cooling efforts. The central bank tightened credit expansion, and China's economy began to slow. As 2011 progressed, developers scrambled for new lines of financing to keep their overstocked inventories. They first relied on bank loans (until they were cut off), then high-yield bonds in Hong Kong (until the market soured), then private investment vehicles (sponsored by banks as an end run around lending constraints), and finally, in some cases, loan sharks. By the end of last summer, many Chinese developers had run out of options and were forced to begin liquidating inventory. Hence, the price slashing: 30, 40, and even 50 percent discounts.

The biggest unanswered question is whether existing investors -- the people holding all those sold but empty "ghost" condos and villas -- will join in the sell-off, which could turn the market's retreat into a rout. So far, that has not materialized. Unlike highly leveraged developers, most multi-home buyers invested their own money and do not face the same immediate pressures to sell. However, their willingness to hold idle properties depends on real estate's reliability as a store of value -- a rationale that seems to be disintegrating before home buyers' eyes. While pre-owned home prices in Beijing fell only three percent last month, transaction volumes there and in other cities have plummeted (down 50 percent year on year in Shenzhen, 57 percent in Tianjin, and 79 percent in Changsha), suggesting that many owners would like to sell -- so long as it is not at a loss -- but are having trouble finding buyers. Would-be residents, who once felt pressured to buy before prices rose even further, now prefer to wait and look around for a better deal.

In recent weeks, a growing chorus has called on the government to lift restrictions on multiple home purchases -- revealing, when push comes to shove, just how much the market has come to depend on investor, rather than end-user, demand. But both types of demand depend, in their own way, on the assumption of ever-rising prices. Unless that assumption can somehow be restored, neither looser regulation nor looser lending will persuade the Chinese to pile back into property. Just as elsewhere, China's monetary authorities may find themselves, as it's said, pushing on a string of unwilling demand.

Ironically, as Chinese investors start pulling their money out of property, many are putting it into bank- and trust-sponsored "private wealth management" vehicles that promise high fixed rates of return but channel the proceeds into investments -- like real estate developers and local government bonds -- whose returns are themselves predicated on ever rising property prices. Many fear this repackaging of real estate risk is laying the foundation for a follow-on crisis that some are labeling the Chinese equivalent of Wall Street's collateralized-debt-obligation mess.

While frightening, the popping of China's real estate bubble is not all bad news. Cheaper, more affordable housing could also unlock the savings of China's working-class families, unleashing greater consumer demand and helping to rebalance the global economy. Investment long bottled up in idle real estate could flow to more productive pursuits. These adjustments have been put off too long. This is why at least some of China's leaders appear determined to force a correction despite the risks. But they know they are walking a razor's edge.

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The government has been very successful at reducing demand these last two months, I work in Beijing and most of my co-workers are from the surrounding provinces. From what they've said and what I've read, the last three monthss' slowdown has been engineered by the government and mostly aimed at the first tier cities. Their hometowns have no bubbles.

Besides the first tier and parts of Fujian and Guangdong, there's not really much of a bubble. Moody's said as much in their analysis last week, which was "negative" but only focused on first tier ("property prices have not materially declined in most second-tier cities")

I mean, these are huge cities and they represent the interests of the moneyed elite in China, but as a total % of internal domestic demand, they're not very much. It's one thing to write stories about these 'ghost towns', it's another to actually look at % and how much such an image reflects the country as a whole.

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Yep, the foreign press is determined right now to try and divert attention away from all the problems in the US and elsewhere. China housing prices going down you say? Obviously the bubble has popped! But they ignore the fact that the government is forcing the prices down aggressively. Without the controls, housing prices would still be going up. Those controls?

Limits on who can buy housing in the cities (not a resident? gotta have 5 years of stable work history here and history of social insurance payments... and you're only gonna get 1)
Limits on how much people can buy in the cities (no, you can't have an apartment at every new subway station, sorry)
Very high requirements for down payments past the first property (it's effectively 100% now, and no, you can't use funds from your first place to get a loan to pay "cash" for the next one)
And then there's the public housing. 100,000 RMB a year for a family of 3 can get a place for dirt cheap. Way below the market rate. This is effectively 2x city median wage for Beijing.
Property taxes. This will most likely be instituted in 2012 with taxes being owed on everything past a certain amount of square meters.
Taxes that are draconian and evil and target flippers to the point where it's just not profitable in any kind of short term.

All of this will raise rents, or at least it would... if not for all the public housing which will basically end up effing landlords.

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If what you say is true, then it sounds like China's taken sensible choices to prevent a bubble collapse in the future, by making the inflation of a bubble economically non-viable.
The beauty is that it also punishes the effers who inflated the bubble to this point too.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/01/13/harpers-slow-boat-to-china-sets-sail/

Canada stands with America but looks to China.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
I think they'll find that cracking into the Chinese export market for anything other than commodities is notoriously difficult.

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quote:

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On a rooftop bar in Beijing, a twenty-something sips a raspberry Margarita and dishes the latest dirt on the scandal that has gripped China’s capital, if not most of the country. “I’ve heard the police and the military are supporting two different factions [vying for political power],” she says. “Lots of people who were close to [disgraced former city chief] Bo Xilai are being arrested in Chongqing.” The next evening, a retired party member whispers conspiratorially: “Have you heard? Jiang Zemin has been spending time in Beijing,” referring to the former top leader of China. Jiang lives in Shanghai and, although he retired almost 10 years ago, still is the most powerful player in China’s byzantine politics. “He’s making sure his people are O.K.”

A taxi driver scowls when asked about the intrigue surrounding the upcoming leadership transition and the fate of Bo: “Those who are capable don’t get promoted in China. Those who aren’t, they are the ones who run this country,” he says. “That’s how our system works.” A month earlier, a worried American investment banker called from his office in Shanghai to query a Beijing-based journalist: “I’ve been hearing that there is a coup happening up there and tanks and soldiers are on the street—I know this sounds crazy, but do you see any signs of that at all? My e-mail has been lighting up with worried clients asking about the coup all morning.”

This is what it is like to be living in Beijing in the time of Bo. China is undergoing its biggest political crisis since the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, as wild supposition mixes with outlandish facts to shift the city’s rumor mill into overdrive. Young Chinese in stylish bars, antsy American investors, civil servants, students, and entrepreneurs all swap stories of political backstabbing and collusion. There’s a feeling of nervous anticipation for what lies ahead. The fact that no one seems to know how things will unfold makes the frisson only stronger.

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quote:

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What is happening in China is familiar with one exception: the alleged murder of a foreigner. Without that the foreign press would pay little attention. Since Mao's rise to Party power long before the Communist triumph in 1949, inter-Party quarrels at the top level often led the death of the fallen one.

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http://www.sunday-guardian.com/investigation/western-press-runs-amok-with-hearsay-reporting-in-bo-case

[ April 30, 2012, 08:23 PM: Message edited by: Mucus ]
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Chen has left the embassy. There's a plethora of conflicting reports that he left of his own volition without duress or that he left because the government threatened his family. Both are certainly possible, I'm trying to give the central government the benefit of the doubt, they really don't need a scandal.

Still, I'm a bit disheartened as China does not have a good track record of living with political dissidents within their border. I don't expect Chen will just be free to go where he pleases or continue his work. The fact he is staying, instead of making a go of it in the US is hard to watch, but I can understand why he's doing it.

Sucks.
 

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Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
 
The sad thing about stuff like this, it seems, is that it makes the news when someone steps out of line, but now that the status quo has been reestablished, who hangs around to hold China's feet to the fire?

The media isn't very good at follow-up. We have to rely on human rights groups to play watchdog.
 

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Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
 
Chen regrets decision.

That didn't last long.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 


I really hope we find a way to get him out if that is what him and his family truly want. It's just so enraging to think it's an open secret they were all basically kept prisoner in their own home and routinely abused, and there just isn't a way to shake enough Chinese people into seeing why they could be living so much better. Every time a man like him leaves, that's one less person who can help them see.
 

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Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
 
I think China's a bit like America during the Gilded Age. The allure of vastly improved material wealth and well-being is covering up all manner of sins.

I imagine it won't last forever.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
No, but that's no guarantee of progress. It could be another demagogue who sets them back another fifty years if conditions were right. But I'd like to think with somebody having already pulled that stunt, they wouldn't stand for it again.

Here on the other hand...
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
An excellent primer by the WP on Chen Guang Cheng and his background.

I really admire him and his work. It's a rare instance where an activist is only looking to stay within the bounds of the law, and the law has utterly failed to protect him or uphold itself.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Chen coming to the US.

By all means, fill up our populace with men like Chen. Let's hope Chen ends up being a Sun Yat Sen. Returning to China triumphantly ready to lead a new reform minded movement after directing in exile.
 

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Posted by Rakeesh (Member # 2001) on :
 
That's great news! I'm glad a deal was able to be reached where he could get out of there, though it's unfortunate that it's just him and his wife. Still, I was expecting that this whole thing would be another case of us saying to hell with the human rights side of things for political and economic expedience, but this time on a very micro, personal level.

I just hope whatever was necessary to get Chen out from under the thumb of his own government wasn't too onerous.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Some info on Chinese land regulations:

quote:

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Generally the developer has to buy out the land usage rights from whoever's on the land first and pay a rather large tax to the government for rights to develop. Yep, it's technically a lease. For how long depends on the zoning.
(1)居住用地70年； - Residential 70 years
(2)工业用地50年； - Industry - 50 years
(3)教育、科技、文化、卫生、体育用地50年； - Educational, cultural, etc - 50 years
(4)商业、旅游、娱乐用地40年； - Business, tourism, entertainment - 40 years
(5)综合或者其他用地50年 - Combined and other purposes - 50 years

What happens after that period of time is still anyone's guess. Most likely it will mean paying a transfer tax to renew the lease. Odds are more likely that within that time span it will be targeted for a buyout and compensation for redevelopment prior to theexpiry date.

The definition of "development" was kinda vague before and it wasn't uncommon for a developer to just dig a small pit, or hire a handful of workers to pretend development was happening. Yummy land speculation. Buy it cheap, squat on it for a few years and then start to actually do something. The pre-sales thing also used to be possible, as was using an existing property as collateral for downpayment on new properties. That all changed.
Sales cannot happen until development reaches a certain point now, generally speaking it typically starts up once at least the shell of the building is all done and in place. Developers also tend to prefer mortgages to be coming in from a specific bank which they are working with. Funds from those banks are released piecemeal at various stages of development. The downpayments typically do straight into their pockets, which is why they'll give discounts for paying cash in full. That's more or less the only way pre-sales can happen anymore. Highly reputable developers with a long established history might give pre-sales of cash-in-full with around a 7~9% discount. Not so reputable developers where there is an obvious risk... it's not uncommon to see very early pre-sales of units with a 20~30% discount, but now, even that is still restricted. Development must be authorized by the government for pre-sales prior to actually being sold and this has become rather well regulated... at least in the hottest property markets.

Developer goes bankrupt halfway through and runs away? Assets get auctioned off to a new developer for cheap. They can either finish up the building and claim the funds remaining from bank mortgages as well as all the other perks, or they can tear it all down and compensate buyers. Most people who are not huge risk takers will only buy from very reputable developers who have a long history. The new restrictions specifically make it difficult for developers who don't have all that much actual capital. And yes, this industry is stupidly corrupt as there is huge money to be made. Getting cleaned up a bit recently, but still corrupt.

Taxes to the government are paid when property changes hands from the developer to the buyer. This must be in cash, and no, loans or other collateral is not allowed to pay for it. Back during the bubble there was also rampant speculation where buyers would line up and gobble up the pre-sales at huge discounts, paying cash in full before anything was actually built. Then as development got underway it wouldn't be uncommon to see those rights to future units being flipped at various stages of development for quick profits. That all kinda came to an end with the 5-year taxation policy. If you hold it for under 5 years, you get whacked with massive tax penalties now. That was one of the first regulations that was put in place, but the market was still so hot that it had virtually zero effect.

I'm not even going to bother to get into the disturbingly cheap places that have questionable land rights. That's a whole nother topic. But one of the funny things that's happened is the golf course implosion. Percentage of "green space" became the new hype. Taking a section of the development and turning it into a small park or whatever, or filling the parking lot with trees became a fairly standard way to boost that number on paper. Having green space was also one of those stats that local governments were graded on. So, when that whole "develop it or lose it" thing came to pass, a really common trick was to take a large plot that they wanted to speculate on, transfer it to a shell company, put in the underlying infrastructure (water mains, electric, sewage, etc) and then fill it with a bunch of trees (which can be dug up and sold for a profit later) or turn it into a golf course (which is actually a huge money maker and a great graft tool). When the day comes that they actually want to develop it, the shell goes bankrupt, the parent takes it back over, pays some tax to restart the lease and up go the buildings. In the meantime, adjacent developments can have inflated "green space" and the local government can boast about their parks and overall green space. Parks don't get bitched about, golf courses sometimes do, but the profits from the golf courses make the fines laughable. This land can also be used to secure future development loans for other properties.

The notion of ever-increasing prices is highly linked to improved development. remote locations get a subway station, or have a station planned. Prices shoot up. If perchance it's on top of a subway interchange station, prices shoot up even higher. Just the way it goes, and this is probably connected to the design of the subway system itself with it's lack of massive hub stations. The surrounding real estate would just be obscene.

Current restrictions in place (in Beijing):

Downpayments & Financing (These put a major damper on, but did not stop all growth)
1st unit - can used housing fund loans up to 80w and bank loans for the rest. Absolute minimum downpayment is 20% on the housing fund and 30% or higher for the rest of it.
2nd unit - 60% minimum, 100% preferred (might actually be a required 100% now, I would have to double check)
3rd unit - 100%, no other option, must be cash in full, also unlikely to be allowed.
It's also fairly difficult to get fixed rate mortgages, most are variable and those rates are entirely controlled by the government.

Purchasing (these are the biggies that finally started the deflation)
Typically restricted to a single unit in the city, potentially a second or third, but it typically requires some scheming to pull off.
Non-local hukou must have a 5-year history of a stable job, paying taxes, contribution to social insurances before being eligible for a single unit.
Foreigners limited to a single unit within China. It must be a primary residence and cannot be rented out. Must reside for at least 1 year prior to being allowed to purchase.
Foreign interests and speculators are effectively banned.

Construction
Stand alone villa construction is banned on all new developments
Pushing from the government for economic housing of reasonable sizes

Future things that will be or are in the process of happening:
Property Taxes!
It's a quota-based system. Each member of a family unit is allocated a certain amount of square floorage that is tax-free. Beyond that, taxes will be owed on the remaining sum of space taking into account all properties with a bias towards counting the floor space in the properties of highest value towards the quota first.
For the vast majority of people, this will never be a concern as the base line is rather high. It's pretty much just a tax on the rich and landlords (who are skirting rental income taxes anyways).

"Low-income" housing explosion
It was attempted before, there was corruption, end result was a bunch of rich people snapping it all up via various means. The new stuff is much more thorough in terms of qualifications and they simply cannot flip it for 10 or more years. This housing is aimed at new graduates and will be highly affordable either as purchases or as income-sensitive rentals with purchase options. Migrant workers more likely than not will not have any access to this prior to meeting a series of rather rigorous qualifications.


Do keep in mind that these are Beijing regulations and the ones I am most familiar with. Pretty much all other cities have their own regulations which vary according to how they see fit. But Beijing was one of the craziest places during the bubble. Most cities seem to ban outsiders from purchasing anything as well as slapping restrictions on how many units they are allowed to purchase. How strict this is, really does depend on their own regulations. For a place like Xi'an, I know there must be proof of 1 year of payments to the local social insurance scheme and/or a 1 year record of local taxation.

Goals for the Government:
Smack the **** out of housing prices. This was becoming a huge problem for everyone who wasn't rich and was causing some serious problems.
Stabilize housing prices. Way too ****ing volatile before. Gots to keep a lid on that.
Kill off the crappier developers. Prior to about 1980, it was all state owned, workers were generally well trained, standards were higher. With the privatization and opening to private developers standards have gone down and there are higher risks from developers who really have no business being in the game to begin with. Government wants this to be more consolidated into large reputable companies that are more easily regulated.

With all the regulations in place, if the decline is too fast, they can ease up, if it overshoots the targets they can introduce incentives. It's all very controlled and not in any way some kind of crisis like the overseas media is pretending. Economists are also fairly useless to listen to about this, as their theories only really work in unregulated markets... all kinda gets shot to hell when it's central government pulling the strings. Mortgages here are not being bundled up and passed off to investors with fake ratings. No such thing as 0% down, liar loans or non-recourse (however policy is very lenient to primary residences in hard times who are temporarily incapable of repayment). No teaser interests and balloon payments, ARMs or resets. The major banks are all effectively state-owned and controlled and have government backing. HELOC exists, is limited to 70% LTV and generally is only really possible once the original mortgage has been paid off in full. Using a primary residence to do this is basically a risk no one in their right minds would ever take.

The culture here is highly geared to settle all debts asap and the first thing on everyone's mind isn't "how much per month" but rather "how much total in the end". If it means working a side-job, or starting up a small business... if there is a mortgage to pay, I can pretty much guarantee that every last fen of extra income will be going towards paying off the loan faster.


edit: Furthermore, due to the restrictions in China, you are seeing the outflow of hot money to markets pretty much everywhere else to snap up properties as investment. Any laxing of the regulations pretty much ensures cash flies right back into the markets here. There's tons of demand and those buyers generally represent zero credit risk as they pay in cash.

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quote:

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Is it just me, or is the American media's reporting of the Chen Guangcheng affair hopelessly stupid? Most outlets seem to be treating it as if Chen requested asylum and was denied and thrown under a bus, when State tells a very different story and Chen doesn't seem to be able to keep his story straight. There was only that one quote from the State Dept. guy who seems to understand something about the situation saying something like "we have a fragile deal with the state police and Chen is threatening it with his weird comments" but I don't hear the media even attempt to deal with analysis of that or any kind. They also are quite focused on how this reflects on OBAMA but what can you expect in an election year.

There is zero interest it seems in the motives and interests of and constraints on the relevant parties or any attempt to analyze what might happen next. They just seem to have a canned narrative, fake outrage from Americans who won't recognize Chen's name next week, and no real understanding of the situation.

I guess it doesn't help that the American government's treatment of the situation is almost willfully stupid, like trying to pass a Congressional resolution to give the guy asylum when, again, he hasn't requested it. The only thing keeping this guy from disappearing is U.S. diplomatic pressure and the fear of public embarrassment, and backroom deals to save face like the "study abroad" deal currently being floated is the only way Chen is getting anything positive out of this situation. I really feel for the State Department here sort of being the only adult in the room on this issue.

But the media sure isn't helping.

edit: the WaPo articles were good. I guess I should say television news, since those are the outlets I have specifically seen being offensively dumb.

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quote:

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The majority of the "modern" era dissidents are the disenfranchised non-Han minority in most cases. There are exceptions like Chen but the ones making the most noise are usually still ethnic minorities. Overseas Chinese back in the early 19th century were the fairly well off mercantile class of southern Chinese who were exiled for mostly economic reasons. There was a direct Han connection to the mainland so it was easy to foment revolution. On the other hand the non ethnic Han minorities might be able to stir up movements within their own community in the mainland but it's a drop in the proverbial ocean of people in China without Han support.


***************


To some extent China already doesn't really care if its citizens leave. It's not east Germany or anything. It's pretty easy for most Chinese citizens to leave to go live abroad if they have the economic means.

The problem is there aren't many countries out there that would want the type of people China would want to deport anyways. Activists always shed crocodile tears over Uighurs and such but do people really want potential islamic fundamentalists living in their country? Same goes for Falun Gong cultists or large impoverished populations of Tibetans.

I'm sure China would be thrilled to offload them to the U.S. But realistically they can't. That leaves a few high profile guys really.

It would be an interesting scenario if China tried to engineer a demographic time bomb by just opening up the borders to India and allowed Tibetans a one way trip. I imagine you'd end up with a situation like Castro's Cuba. A lot of prisons would "mysteriously" empty over night sending actual criminals out of the country too.

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Let's hope Chen ends up being a Sun Yat Sen. Returning to China triumphantly ready to lead a new reform minded movement after directing in exile.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:

quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Let's hope Chen ends up being a Sun Yat Sen. Returning to China triumphantly ready to lead a new reform minded movement after directing in exile.

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Let's hope he doesn't and that he actually does a lot better. The Sun Yat Sen story leads to a whole lot more tragedy than triumph in the end.

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Oh, sure. I don't mean to say we want a perfect reconstruction of Sun's life. But it's clear Chen cares very much about the Chinese in China, and not so much himself. It was only when they turned the screws on his family that he realized he needed to leave. I hope he is able to continue to be effective in advocating for change while he is abroad. I'd very much like to meet him if occasion permits.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I'm not convinced that he was all that effective even before going abroad. That said, I'm always in favour of more immigration to North America
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Interesting thoughts on Japanese language boards:

quote:

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I will say this: Simplified CHinese is a way better way to write than either Japanese or Traditional CHinese, and I have found that many of the simiplifications have actually found their way into Japanese handwriting recognition programs:

金 金 金 钅*
食 ⻞ 食 饣*
言 言 言 讠*
陰 陰 陰 阴
陽 陽 陽 阳
鳥 鳥 鳥 鸟
島 嶋 島 岛
飛 飛 飛 飞
馬 馬 馬 马
竜 龍 龍 龙
魚 魚 魚 鱼*
東 東 東 东
車 車 車 车
長 長 長 长*
糸 糸 糸 纟*
楊 楊 楊 杨
風 風 風 风
門 門 門 门

The *'d ones seem to work alot, so I have just incorporated them into my writing
The one unoffical Japanese simplification
門 to the one listed in this article
has saved me much time, sInce the simpifed Chinese for that one does not work, but it does

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryakuji

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quote:

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. In North America, you go shoot others up or do suicide by cop. In China you kill yourself.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Rakeesh:
The funny thing about calling BB naive in this context is that if he is, so is the government of China.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Rakeesh:
The funny thing about calling BB naive in this context is that if he is, so is the government of China. Among many reasons for exerting the degree of control they do on information and the media there, one of them is surely to keep apathy and antagonism towards would-be reformers and activists as high as they can.

Unless they join the government, of course. Then they're no longer 'pot-stirring activists', heh. One of the funniest things about these conversations, when they go this way, is to imagine Blayne's reaction if one morning a Canadian official, with a few goons, appeared at his door and informed him they were aware of that rally he went to that time, and did he know only pot stirring troublemakers attended such rallies? Well the state surely does, and if he were to continue, they'd make a note of it.

Short of having a tank driven over them, most injustices perpetrated against people are understandable...over there.

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What's naive is the belief that "Any day now *this time* the government is going to break the legs of one more dissident and the PEOPLE WILL REVOLT EN MASS AND TOPLE THE *ALLEGEDLY* illigitimate government."

Since people just *love* having an American style government right? End of History and all that, neoliberal democracy totally won the cold war guys so lets just give up and automatically abandon all other possible evolutionary paths of governence.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Rakeesh:

quote:

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What's naive is the belief that "Any day now *this time* the government is going to break the legs of one more dissident and the PEOPLE WILL REVOLT EN MASS AND TOPLE THE *ALLEGEDLY* illigitimate government."

Since people just *love* having an American style government right? End of History and all that, neoliberal democracy totally won the cold war guys so lets just give up and automatically abandon all other possible evolutionary paths of governence.

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What a nice example of a big pile of 'nobody said anything like that'! Is this a contest? I didn't know, I haven't even rehearsed.

(I'm curious: were Canada to begin mandating who you could and couldn't vote for based on party affiliation, and regularly blocking all sorts of content from your Internet access, how long would it take you past the first curtailed Internet search before you deemed that government illegitimate?

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quote:

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But I wonder: is there anyone here whose opinion you *don't* by allow yourself to automatically discount who believes you would regard that sort of government authority over you as lawful and legitimate?

Not a majority or a small minority or even a few, but just one.)

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quote:

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Originally posted by Rakeesh:
Which would not at all be the same thing as thinking the government was good or even legitimate, but rather (in a far from rare reaction, way back to bread and circuses and beyond) be an example of being effectively bought off.

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And it should be of no surprise that there are many seeing the bipartisan gridlock in Washington as a further and compelling reason against democracy for the effective governence of the country through complex economic problems. As I posted earlier we already saw a stunning example of the Central Government able to effectively intervene in the its own housing and construction bubble, because regardless of the local and indemnic corruption in China the Central Government is not indebted to the speculators and Big Business and could put down the brakes on the bubble in such a way that actually harmed those who caused it.

There is the argument being made, especially in China and in the Confucian Institutes popping up around the world that effective governence need not be a liberal democratic one and that some form of balance can be struck.

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
... You can't build a world class infrastructure on men who take the government's money, spend as little as possible on materials, and pay for laborers, then take the excess money and send it to the US or elsewhere.

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Or rather you can ... but only because current standards for world-class infrastructure seem to be awfully low

quote:

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Bo Xi Lai was such a big deal because finally for once, somebody who was in line for the top spot did so much bad crap that he was actually dismissed.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
You're moving the goalposts now, the question was about whether some other arbitrary crackdown no different from what currently goes will be sufficient to act as a "tipping point" and people will have had "enough" towards toppling the government and the fact is "no".

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quote:

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What I am objecting to, is your to what I feel is a reckless line of reasoning that the system should just be toppled and torn down now and that is nearly indisputably but mostly arguably foolish.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
But this isn't, so... D-, rewrite it and then get back to me, it's like your talking to some completely other person and not responding to my argument.

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quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
[QB]Since I barred you from using "Straw man"

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quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
... it has its reformist elements ...

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quote:

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Since I barred you from using "Straw man" I shall extend you the same courtesy. Having said that, I have no quarrel with reforms happening in an orderly manner. I still recognize though that if a government becomes an enemy to the people it must needs be toppled. Jailing, abusing, suing, and murdering reformers who stand up to villains in the government is enemy behavior.

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It should not happen, in the US or China. It's why Chen Guang Cheng has so much traction. He was fighting *for* laws as written by the government against local officials who were breaking the law. What happened to him? Years of prison followed by years of unofficial house arrest with routine beatings and atrocities he isn't willing to detail, I'm sure in part to protect his family he stays silent. His family has already been found and abused since he escaped. State sponsored thuggery is not a necessary component of any nation.

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I hope the autopsy is done far away from Shao Yang, but even then I don't expect we'll hear the truth of the matter. One day, after enough activists are exiled, die, or are brutalized the Chinese people will have had enough.

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If it can be shown, and in which it certainly can be arguably shown here, that a greater utility is served. Then I do not see how one make moralistic judgements.

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I don't see how this is relevant, emotionally charged language is hardly productive in this context. No matter *how* oppressive and undemocratic or systemic the abuses, the alternative is almost always worse and you don't seem to recognize this as a problem.

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I don't begrudge him whatever manner of reform or moves to crackdown on local corruption his or others sacrifices and suffering may eventually or probably result in; I object to the suggestion that the unmitigated humanitarian, social, cultural and economic disaster of revolt or revolution is the *solution* to even the most excessive overstretch of police targeted oppression.

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The language you used would seem to imply that if say, tomorrow a bunch of Tibetans decided to set fire to an army barracks and the PAP responded in force to result in say 108 fatalities the government loses "legitimacy" and there should be "revolution" to set up democracy.

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quote:

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This is what I was responding to, this is what I felt was naive;

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quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:

quote:

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Since I barred you from using "Straw man" I shall extend you the same courtesy. Having said that, I have no quarrel with reforms happening in an orderly manner. I still recognize though that if a government becomes an enemy to the people it must needs be toppled. Jailing, abusing, suing, and murdering reformers who stand up to villains in the government is enemy behavior.

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If it can be shown, and in which it certainly can be arguably shown here, that a greater utility is served. Then I do not see how one make moralistic judgements.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
The switch to a mixed economy is pretty compelling evidence of the existence of "Reformists" within the government.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mucus:

quote:

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Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
The switch to a mixed economy is pretty compelling evidence of the existence of "Reformists" within the government.

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Decades ago maybe, today not so much.

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By definition all governments have a reform faction, the whole government cannot be entirely composed of ideologically pure "hardliners" meaning by default all the likely majority officials are NOT hard liners and thus at least moderates; of whom we can easily and logically suppose a number of them must be reform minded.

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quote:

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Blackblade why do you expect me to respond to loaded questions and irrelevant tangents? It is not my obligation to draw obvious distinctions for you. You said a silly thing and I said so, and provided my reasoning as to why, what is there remaining to clarify?

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I'm insulted you are characterizing my words in this manner. Seriously. It makes me want to ignore you whenever you post anything about...well anything.

You have continually framed my argument into a, "I'm so excited to witness the chaos of revolution if it gets rid of the Evil Empire" argument. It's a suit I haven't put on Blayne. So stop telling me I'm wearing it. What is there left to clarify? Well, nothing, because you won't actually engage me in a conversation. I've tried to reach out to you as a human being, and your response is "You're silly. Also, a dummy."

If you don't really want to discuss the topic at hand, you can say so. If you are burned out, you can say so, if I really sound like I'm just spouting nonsense maybe you should get confirmation from another poster they feel the same way. I'll content myself with one question for you to answer. You can pretend I didn't say anything else.

"Chen Guang Cheng was working as a lawyer within the framework of the Chinese legal system. He completely supports the legitimacy of the Chinese government, and believes in observing the law, as well as reforming it through legal avenues.

He was advocating for the rights of Chinese women who were illegally forced to have abortions by local officials. He was convicted of trumped up charges, imprisoned, released, then placed under unofficial house arrest where he and his wife were beaten daily, and other harmful things were done to them which they will not disclose at this time.

What utility is accomplished by the central government allowing provincial governments to ignore the laws the central government has passed? And what greater good is accomplished by allowing a lawyer who has broken no laws to be mistreated in this manner?"
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
If you're lurking around Blayne, I'd appreciate a response, even if it's "no".
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
There was an excellent podcast on "Americans in China" on "This American Life"
http://www.8asians.com/2012/06/29/americans-in-china-on-this-american-life/

Two regulars from the Sinica podcast that I sometimes spam here also show up
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Blayne: I'd still like an answer to my previous question. I won't be discussing China with you again until you do.

----------

In other news, Gu Kai Lai gets life imprisonment.

I wish I knew in China just how often this ever leads to early release or parole.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Is that a purely Blayne question?
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Mucus: Feel free to answer it, I was just more interested in hearing Blayne do so.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Turns out Gu might be out in less than a decade.

Link.

It's nice we get so many details courtesy of the British consular staff present at the trial. I doubt we will get such a candid picture when Bo is tried. Certainly no details on how he has the wherewithall to talk about real estate deals worth tens of millions of dollars on a civil servant salary.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Why I'm leaving China

quote:

---

I can’t really say for sure what the final straw was. Probably it was a combination of things. Maybe the pollution; the constant food scandals; the oppression of the Tibetan and Uighur minorities; the inexcusable decision to delay Dark Knight Rises in cinemas until August 27. I mean, seriously, what the ****? I need to see that movie, now.

And look, this has nothing to do with the fact that the PSB tried to frame me as a drug dealer/ your father is a high-ranking PLA general who hate Americans/ my visa just ran out.

No. It’s just that now happens to be a very fashionable time to be leaving China. This isn’t personal. It’s not you. It’s me.

Well, mostly it’s you.”

---

quote:

---

Well that's a difficult logic map to follow. Remind me who the moderates were when Genghis Khan crossed Asia into Europe. By definition a moderate is only moderate when compared to the equivalent hardliner. If the hardliners from a fictitious group says lets kill all prisoners of war, and the moderates say lets instead kill all the men, but leave the women so that they can be intermarried with the soldiers, that's hardly a moderate faction we can all get behind. But they are still moderates.

---

quote:

---

I'm insulted you are characterizing my words in this manner. Seriously. It makes me want to ignore you whenever you post anything about...well anything.

---

quote:

---

You have continually framed my argument into a, "I'm so excited to witness the chaos of revolution if it gets rid of the Evil Empire" argument. It's a suit I haven't put on Blayne. So stop telling me I'm wearing it. What is there left to clarify? Well, nothing, because you won't actually engage me in a conversation. I've tried to reach out to you as a human being, and your response is "You're silly. Also, a dummy."

---

quote:

---

"Chen Guang Cheng was working as a lawyer within the framework of the Chinese legal system. He completely supports the legitimacy of the Chinese government, and believes in observing the law, as well as reforming it through legal avenues.

He was advocating for the rights of Chinese women who were illegally forced to have abortions by local officials. He was convicted of trumped up charges, imprisoned, released, then placed under unofficial house arrest where he and his wife were beaten daily, and other harmful things were done to them which they will not disclose at this time.

What utility is accomplished by the central government allowing provincial governments to ignore the laws the central government has passed? And what greater good is accomplished by allowing a lawyer who has broken no laws to be mistreated in this manner?"

---

quote:

---

Not applicable, those events are not analogous to modern political theory; Especially since those events tend to predate the modern system of party politics.

---

quote:

---

But I would say that Ghengis Khan is certainly is moderate compared to many conquerers at the time, a time when warfare and conquest was perfectly normal, along with Alexander the Great.

---

quote:

---

Moral and ethical relativism sure, no doubt there but it doesn't really make sense to attempt to draw an equivalence to such far apart and disparate events.

---

quote:

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Maybe don't ask loaded questions? The purpose of honest discussion is to try to find common ground of agreement and consensus, this is impossible when you as a starting point frame the issue in emotional and alarmist terms.

Essentially you start from a situation from where the "Chinese people" are being "brutalized", a position I consider to be appallingly one sided and steeped within emotional language.

---

quote:

---

I do not see a substantial difference, between malice and ignorance here, historical precedence in China is clear. A "Quiet Revolution" is exceedingly unlikely, any radical bottom up upheaval of political affairs is likely violent, chaotic, and bad and net negative for all involved and adjacent.

---

quote:

---

To still see revolution as preferable because of idealistic or ideological reasoning of principle "democracy good, authoritarianism bad" to be simplistic, is to still on one level and undeniably so, is to willingly accept responsibility for the consequences.

---

quote:

---

In short your question is not a useful question, as you are not asking the right questions. No system is perfect and it is too easy to get caught up in trivial trumped up "travesties" and ignore the greater context and complexity that the system has to deal with and balance on the whole.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
See again regarding my thoughts on this being a loaded question since you begin with the position that the central government is deliberately allowing disruptions to their harmonious big green dam (cutest thing ever over at Danbooru by the way, check it out, I showed some to a Chinese student I MSN with and he's like "OH! I've seen those! HOW DO YOU KNOW OUR MEMES!?" I'm still amused how I can say "xie xie" to a Chinese exchange student and she'll turn to her friend and say "*Gasp* He spoke Chinese! Isn't that amazing!?") society rather them simply pragmatically reacting to these situations in the however best Machiavellian way they can to insure their legitimacy through the tried and true method of "bad boyers good tsars".

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by BlackBlade:

quote:

---

To still see revolution as preferable because of idealistic or ideological reasoning of principle "democracy good, authoritarianism bad" to be simplistic, is to still on one level and undeniably so, is to willingly accept responsibility for the consequences.

---

I'm not willing to support revolution if I knew demagoguery would result. Since we can't know, we gamble and throw the dice, and try to squelch Maos while they are in embryo form. But revolution produces Washingtons too.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Rakeesh:
They're his guys.

---

quote:

---

This demand has no doubt contributed to fears over China's housing bubble, which has been the source of concerned speculation now that China's economic growth has slowed to 7.6 percent, the lowest since 2009. A recent IMF publication shows how a decline in the Chinese real estate market could do everything from affect the price of zinc and nickel to trigger a trade slowdown with South Korea, Japan, and other G-20 partners. Yet from the marriage-market perspective, the demand for property appears unrelenting.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
Regarding the question as to whether I would be willing to live in a Canada where the government was willing to do even a fraction as to what the Chinese government does to keep order, well I have three words. "Just watch me".

---

You have gone 'off message' one too many times and we feel that this is continued justification of the relocation of people with your condition to designated housing. Your media and internet access are going to be significantly restricted, of course.
 

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Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
Are you really going to cross that line Sam?
 

---

Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
 
What line? The "teasing Blayne about bravado on a point on which he cannot possibly be tested" line, or the "actually dispatching authoritarian Canadian commandos" line?
 

---

Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
The making disparaging comments about my autism to make a crude jab line.
 

---

Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 
Lol, wasn't even thinking about your ASD, but hey — it works that way too. The point is to note how grotesque human rights abuses in the name of 'stability' are okay, right? But wait, unless they cross lines you're individually sensitive to.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Blayne: Sam was clearly talking about what happens in a nation state when you can't openly criticize the government.

Aren't you glad Hatrack isn't run like China?
 

---

Posted by Blayne Bradley (Member # 8565) on :
 
You mean actually being moderated badumtush.

Point is, if restricting civil liberties was required to prevent Quebec from separating, it is a price worth paying. Since I couldbt leave Quebec to remain a Canadian citizen if it did.
 

---

Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 

quote:

---

Point is, if restricting civil liberties was required to prevent Quebec from separating, it is a price worth paying.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Aren't you glad Hatrack isn't run like China?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mucus:

quote:

---

Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Aren't you glad Hatrack isn't run like China?

---

Sadly, I think you over-estimate the number of people that would really object. Obviously, many Americans would object if the Chinese government ran Hatrack. But I suspect that if an American oligarch instituted the American equivalent, the protest would be much more muted.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mucus:
BlackBlade:
Oh, that's kind of a weird match. I thought you were comparing Hatrack to a mainland website and the censorship mechanism rather than the whole country which is kind of weird.

I also think corruption is kind of tangential to the issue (i.e. there are corrupt repressive governments, there are non-corrupt repressive governments, there are corrupt non-repressive regimes, etc.) and it's not really a government strategy/policy employs in order to keep stability.

---

I'm contrasting my moderating paradigm with one he could expect with a repressive regime.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Yeah, I'm totally confused now.

Are you mapping yourself to a moderator on a mainland Chinese website or are you mapping Hatrack to mainland China as a whole?
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Neither!

I'm mapping myself to a moderator who personifies Mainland China.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Chinese newspaper finds itself in hot water amongst Chinese readers after calling departing US ambassador Gary Locke a "banana man"

Personally I loved his style of ambassadorship, and his posting of accurate pollution reports on Chinese social media sites was brilliant.

Sad to see him leave, and it looks like many Chinese feel the same way.
 

---

Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
 
I think he was a fantastic Ambassador. From everything I read, regular Chinese citizens actually really liked him a lot. He made a serious effort to try to get in touch with regular people, and was both a great representative of America and a wise diplomat.

It really is too bad he's leaving.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
NSA hacking into Huawei's networks.

Little surprise the Chinese feel comfortable playing this game with us. We get to watch their business owners and government leaders say stuff, while they siphon billions in IP from us.
 

---

Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
 
Now this is the sort of thing I think the NSA SHOULD be doing, and this is the sort of thing I think Snowden should go to jail for.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Man, they should really have given Snowden asylum in Hong Kong rather than have him go to Russia.

BlackBlade: BTW, did you ever end up coming across any particularly interesting readings relating to China in your business course that I think you mentioned?

[ March 22, 2014, 08:46 PM: Message edited by: Mucus ]
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Yes, although it's a bit dated, and the author is working on a second edition, Susan Shirk's China: Fragile Superpower was an excellent read.

Ms. Shirk has been involved in Sino/US affairs since Mao, and is clearly very passionate about the region. Her writing isn't heavy, but she covers a lot of great concepts. It's not a very long book, but if she does complete a second edition, I'd get it just to get her post Olympics commentary.

It was pretty great that we had a huge case study dealing with Malaysia just days before the airplane incident happened. It's like watching the text come to life, unfortunately I can't link that here.

Though not specifically China, Sinagpore Inc was a good read. It's a Harvard Business Review article.

I think it offers an enormously strong commentary on why Singapore has been phenomenally successful with their rule of law approach to economic/political management. It's also a fascinating consideration in the debate between the Washington Consensus and the Beijing Consensus (liberal open markets vs state run mercantilism). It also provides a strong discussion for what a developed economy like Singapore's must do to let go of manufacturing and become a fully service based economy. There's a lesson there for the US I think.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I think I've heard of Fragile Superpower in some other context, maybe Sinica Podcast (which was great fun this week) or maybe twitter. I'll have to check it out, especially if there is a new edition (2008 feels so long ago ... sorta).

BTW, while waiting for permissions, I wanted to say that reading up on the threads in your role-playing game was pretty interesting.

Edit to add: BTW, the newspaper date on the first page reads 1922, is that consistent with Sun Yat Sen on the persons of interest page? (Is it supposed to be our world?)
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Mucus: Thanks!

It should be mostly. I tried to remain within the approximate chronology, but I'd only stand by the years, not really the months, weeks, or days. I think that particular newspaper article was vetted so during that date Sun Yat Sen should be in exile while Governor Chen is presently governor over Canton.

edit: I even made sure the South China Morning Post was in circulation at that time.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Oh, the governor's real as well.
(Google's his story)

Neat!
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Isn't he though? He's this invisible person who you'd think the CCP would applaud but because they've adopted the legacy of Dr. Sun they're required to speak against Chen because he opposed Sun.

I think one could do a fascinating biography about Chen Jiongming.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Oh, I was just reading about the story of his military rebellion, haven't thought much about the modern-day implications.

Looking at least at the wikipedia parts on his policies

quote:

---

Chen disagreed with Sun about the direction that reform should take. Sun wanted to unite the country by force and institute change through a centralized government based on a one-party system. Chen advocated a multiparty federalism with Guangdong becoming the model province and the peaceful unification of China. Sun became suspicious that the federalist movement was being exploited by the warlords to justify their military fiefdoms.

---

quote:

---

From Hong Kong, he criticized the Nationalists' single-party system and continued to advocate multiparty federalism. After the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, he attacked Chiang Kai-shek's regime for its refusal to confront Japan and he organized boycotts of Japanese products. He died of typhus on September 22, 1933.

---

Putting aside that it would have been pretty cool for Guangdong to be the model province( ), it doesn't seem obvious to me which side would have been more beneficial in the long term. I also think the CCP could find things to applaud (opposition to Japan, boycotts) or not applaud (opposition to a one-part system, advocacy of peaceful reunification).

Edit to add: Keep in mind, I've never even heard of the guy before this so I'm open to persuasion from my ambivalence.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Yeah, there's no way to know if his multi-party system would have ultimately lead to a unified China after the fall of the Qing dynasty. Obviously we know what happened with the CCP ascending.

I would think the communists would applaud his opposition to a one-party system, because that was what they were fighting against with the KMT. Initially they just wanted a voice at the table, but eventually determined to kick out the KMT when the KMT tried to wipe them out. Chen was willing to give them that seat, against Sun's wishes. It's too bad he died at 55, I feel like he would have been an active voice in China's destiny during WWII.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I guess I was more thinking a modern CCP wouldn't particularly want to talk about the benefits of a true multi-party system. I agree for contemporary CCP though.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Ah, true enough.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
In what is more BlackBlade news involving China, I'm going to Shenzhen for the Summer to intern for a company doing operations and finance.

I'm quite pleased with this opportunity.
 

---

Posted by Unmaker (Member # 1641) on :
 
Awesome!!!
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Cool.
I may bump into you in an airport, although I'll be on a much briefer vacation.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
If we do overlap Mucus I'd love to meet you.
 

---

Posted by Elison R. Salazar (Member # 8565) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Yes, although it's a bit dated, and the author is working on a second edition, Susan Shirk's China: Fragile Superpower was an excellent read.

Ms. Shirk has been involved in Sino/US affairs since Mao, and is clearly very passionate about the region. Her writing isn't heavy, but she covers a lot of great concepts. It's not a very long book, but if she does complete a second edition, I'd get it just to get her post Olympics commentary.

It was pretty great that we had a huge case study dealing with Malaysia just days before the airplane incident happened. It's like watching the text come to life, unfortunately I can't link that here.

Though not specifically China, Sinagpore Inc was a good read. It's a Harvard Business Review article.

I think it offers an enormously strong commentary on why Singapore has been phenomenally successful with their rule of law approach to economic/political management. It's also a fascinating consideration in the debate between the Washington Consensus and the Beijing Consensus (liberal open markets vs state run mercantilism). It also provides a strong discussion for what a developed economy like Singapore's must do to let go of manufacturing and become a fully service based economy. There's a lesson there for the US I think.

---

quote:

---

Bigger than Lehman?

If China were to have a banking crash, then the issue will be if the government can afford to rescue the banks without crashing the system.

If it can, then it is still a disaster since the cost to growth will be severe. If it can't, then China would be in crisis and the global consequences would be dire.

In some ways since every saver is affected in the world's most populous country, it could even have a bigger effect than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Either way, it's a troubling outcome.

From <http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26335304?print=true>

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Elison R. Salazar:
In very serious news, it looks like China may be facing an asset bubble collapse similar to what caused the whole Great Recession in (2007 was it?), its one of those things if it happens the world is going to be economically screwed and ...

---

Meh, we've been at this before both in and out of this thread. For example, three years ago

http://www.hatrack.com/ubb/main/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=057554;p=5#000219

Which isn't to say that I think China won't ever have an economic crisis, of course it will, what I lack confidence in is the ability for anyone to predict with any good accuracy when it will happen.

There's this especially amusing guy who makes the rounds on FoxNews, Gordon Chang which has predicting the imminent collapse of China since he published a book in 2001. In other words, the US he wrote the book right before one American recession and we've lived through another American recession without his prediction coming to pass.

And he's still at it.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
He'll be right eventually though, and then he can crow through all the talk show circuits!
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Re: Hong Kong. This would be toward the end of May, although I won't have much more than a layover in Hong Kong. So many places to see, so little time
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
This article is a year old, but it's an ongoing problem. Chinese hackers infiltrated ASIO (Australia's version of MI5) years ago,and much more deeply than initially admitted to by the government.

Link.

Is it any wonder that when Prime Minister Julliard was replaced that her opponents had no intention of changing her decision banning Hua Wei from bidding on building Australia's broadband network?

More recently, American engineers at DuPont were convicted for selling IP (blue prints for a factory, formulas for proprietary chemicals) to a government owned Chinese firm which then created the largest production facility for titanium oxide. It's a 20 billion dollar a year business, and DuPont has enjoyed a majority share of the market.

Which isn't to say the NSA isn't seeking to put backdoor exploits in Huawei gear, or Cisco units, were' talking about two very different outcomes.

The US spying results in us knowing what the Chinese are doing, and crafting foreign policy.

The Chinese spying results in them knowing what Americans are doing, and crafting foreign policy, and selling commercial secrets to their favored firms who then run ours out of business.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
"We have been living in a reality that provided a false sense of well-being, while being robbed blind and impoverished. Want to find the missing middle class? It’s alive and well, in China and South Korea. Indeed, the global middle class is growing, according to the World Bank. Just not in the Inventing Nations."
-Mark Anderson (Discussing the abysmal state of cyber security).
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
What? Not even anonymous Chinese government bloggers discrediting me or my ideas?

I'm so disappointed.... :\
 

---

Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
 
Sounds spot on to me.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
The anonymous Chinese government blogger informs the American running dog that he's currently on vacation and has wisely decided against entering a drive by conversation by phone since the points of disagreement are too numerous.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Better disagree with me now. I won't be criticizing China once I am there!
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Which reminds me Mucus. Do you know of any good Cantonese teaching programs, apps, or resources? I really want to do as much learning as I can in the 3 months I have. Ideally I want to be able to be able to perform basic functions solely in Cantonese before I leave Shenzhen.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I'm pretty sure I suck at learning different languages, but here goes.

I picked up a good cantonese-mandarin-english books of example conversation s for everyday life. I think I got it in a Beijing bookstore and I don't have it handy, so I'll link it here when I get a chance.

Pleco is a pretty cool app, mostly designed for Mandarin but is starting with Cantonese support, I definitely recommend that.

One problem is that Cantonese doesn't seem to have a very popular standard of transliteration like pinyin, but this also frees you to focus on speech. And it seems like to me that you don't have to stress out about tones a lot, Hong Kong cinema has many actors with mainland accents and distorted tones from the mainland.

That brings up what was the best way for me, watch some Stephen Chow movies or some of Wong Kar Wai's stuff like 2046, they sometimes allow the actors to converse in Cantonese if they are Cantonese and Mandarin if they are Mandarin so you get both in a conversation.

Had some relatives that used karaoke. YMMV.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Thanks man. I'll check some of those things out.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Oh, for fun there are two YouTube channels. CarlosDouh and Off The Great Wall. The former focuses on Cantonese slang, the latter sometimes has paired Cantonese and Mandarin videos. The Chinese relatives one is especially fun/sad.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
In case you're curious, off the top of my head, Gong Li, Xiao Wei, and Zhang Ziyi speak Mandarin in Hong Kong films. Carina Lau, Tang Wei, and Shu Qi learn to speak Cantonese during their films (I think anyways). Jet Li just plain gets dubbed.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
A specific movie I can recommend would be Comrades, Almost a Love Story. Not only does Leon Lai's character learn Cantonese during the course of the movie but its an exceptional movie about the Hong Kong experience as well.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
In other news I am now in China, and I am going to be spending a lot of time on buses and trains.

edit: Also I thought day 2 I was done with jet lag as I managed to comfortably stay up until 9:00pm. My brain woke me up at 2:00am. Not sure how today is going to pan out, but I start work so hooray for having no choice but to soldier through.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I hate buses here.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Where's here Mucus?
 

---

Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 
his computer desk
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 


It's kinda funny how the office staff will have a disagreement which sounds increasingly difficult to resolve, and their Mandarin reaches a certain energy level at which point they all spontaneously switch to Cantonese and suddenly everybody's friends again.

This isn't to say arguments in Cantonese can't happen, but it seems like when they want to keep things formal they stick to Mandarin, when they want to break the tension and be chummy they switch.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
North Chengdu long distance coach station is the worst.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Heh.
 

---

Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Submitted without comment.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Those are some high quality "not reacting and pretending not to notice" skills
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Right?!

Also, I feel like there's no way I could keep a straight face.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
A particularly notable Sinica podcast highlighting the expected bad news, upheaval and protests in Hong Kong plus some really good news: there's been a dramatic drop in the suicide rate in China, particularly among rural females to the extent that China has one of the lowest in the world *plus* there has been a big spike in the suicide rate among CCP officials.

http://popupchinese.com/lessons/sinica/hong-kong-protests-and-suicide-in-china

( The articles that are discussed are http://www.economist.com/news/china/21605942-first-two-articles-chinas-suicide-rate-looks-effect-urbanisation-back and http://www.economist.com/news/china/21605943-xi-jinpings-anti-corruption-campaign-may-have-led-spate-official-suicides-unnatural-deaths )
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Interesting article about Xi Jinping's PR efforts.

I've been watching with fascination as his opponents are taken out by his anti-corruption crusade.
 

---

Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I finished listening to the China History Podcast fascinating three partner on Edmund Backhouse, the apparently brilliant writer and scammer who recently re-emerged in popular culture fame for his claims of being being sodomized by Empress Cixi's clit. Yeah, you heard me.

http://chinahistorypodcast.com/chp-137-sir-edmund-backhouse-part-1
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Yeah, I've read about Edmund Backhouse and his secret liaisons with Ci Xi. It was in a book about the Boxer Rebellion. Kind of a goober.

[ July 30, 2014, 09:27 AM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Chinese movie theaters experimenting with texting during the movie. It's worse than you think.

Link.
 

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Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Chinese movie theaters experimenting with texting during the movie. It's worse than you think.

Link.

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Shandong, their home province, is the heart of the Church of Almighty God, a cult that believes that Jesus has risen in the shape of a 40-something Chinese woman named Yang Xiangbin, also sometimes known as Lightning Deng.

Today, five members of the cult will go on trial in Yantai, a seaside city in Shandong, for murdering a 37-year-old woman in a branch of McDonald's while she waited for her husband and seven-year-old son.

No one intervened to stop the killing, which was caught on smartphone cameras, as Zhang Lidong, an unemployed salesman, three of his children and his partner tried to enlist the woman and then bludgeoned her to death when they failed.

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"I have seen some of their teaching material," said Mr Peng. "It begins just like normal Christianity, with no difference at all. But when you get more involved, they introduce the theory of [Mrs Yang] being 'Almighty God'."

Mr Peng said the teachings are straightforward.
"They just want you to repeat over and over that you obey 'God', listen to her, and not fight back. And there are threats for those who think of quitting. After six months, a new member can be brainwashed."

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/11046155/Inside-Chinas-most-radical-cult.html

This kind of cult is kinda flying under the media radar and could be potentially a pretty big deal, so its good to see it getting some independent Western investigation.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
When was the last time a Chinese Christian cult ever caused problems for China? Like, seriously?When?

Oh...at least 20 million people you say?....

This reminds me of Fa Lun Gong, it was incredibly widespread even within the government before people realized what was going on.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Yeah, its crazy how they put in like the middle of the article, like BTW, this cult could have a million people already and I've never even heard of it until about a month ago.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Yeah. So nuts.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Just listened to this on it: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p024bsj4
 

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Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 
i'm really surprised a cult can spread that fast anywhere these days. must just be something about everyday life there or something
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
A neat chart illustrating the likely convergence of various economies around the world in terms of energy intensity and per capita usage.

http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/graphics/2014-08-19-energy-consumption-per-capita-and-energy-intensity.html
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
In case you were not aware, in Hong Kong, students occupied government buildings over the weekend, and refused to disperse. Police responded with tear gas (Very unusual for Hong Kong where political protest is healthy and regular) on Sunday and that seems to have drawn thousands to the streets.

Monday morning travel is seriously disrupted in downtown with protestors refusing to vacate the streets. My father had to get off the bus well short of his stop and find another way in.

In case you need a primer. China promised way back when the 1997 turnover was being negotiated that in 2017 Hong Kong would be permitted to vote for their own Chief Executive Officer. Up until now a person is always nominated by a small pro-Beijing panel. Over the Summer China published a document called the "White Paper" that clearly placed the "one country" in a superior position to the "two systems" part of the statement. They also indicated that any CEO would have to be approved by Beijing, and *then* the Hong Kong people could vote on one of two candidates. So Pro-Beijing Candidate A or Pro-Beijing Candidate B. There were large protests in Hong Kong over the Summer while I was there, and a group called Occupy Central held an unofficial ballot where hundreds of thousands of people voted in support of reform.

Beijing responded with a rent-a-crowd counter protest and signaled they would not be capitulating on this point. It looked like perhaps the protests had run out of steam, but here we are.

Link.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
Been watching this with great interest.

A few minor historical thoughts.

1) The last significant use of tear gas was when the British used tear gas in Hong Kong in 1967. 30 years later, they were gone. 30 years out from 2014 is almost at the eve of the end of two systems, one country. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the CCP will be gone.

2) The pro-unification party/leader in Taiwan formally rejected Xi Jinping's stupid idea to bring up one country, two systems while on a trip there. Great timing!

3) Hong Kong had a significant role in sheltering Sun Yat-sen (credited, probably overly, with revolution against the Qing) and the CCP after Chiang Kai-shek crushed them in Shanghai. We know how both of those turned out. Third time's the charm? (Unfortunately, Beijing is probably well aware of this too)
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Migrants to China try to come to grips with the protests in Hong Kong.

The protests are still ongoing and it looks like both sides are digging trenches. Central, Admirality, and Causeway Bay are not Tiananmen Square, they are more like Wall Street. It's the center of finance and economic activity in Hong Kong. I'm not sure how long the protestors will be able to hold out but if they can manage it for weeks that would be incredible.

I've read several blogs about how the protestors are carefully recycling and cooking food supplied to them by sympathizers. Everything I've read seems to indicate that the protests have remained peaceful and non-violent.

I feel truly sad for the police many of whom I know sympathize with the protestors and yet they have to work 30 hour shifts in the heat because it's their job. I can't say I see a good outcome from these protests, but they are an important moment in Hong Kong history. People are making their statement to Beijing, and casting aside all uncertainty that Hong Kong wants to nominate and elect their CEO. It's only a question of will Beijing let them.

edit: So glad I got to have a taste of this while I was in Hong Kong last Summer. Love seeing all my friends from Hong Kong blow up Facebook with updates on the protests. The umbrella movement has all the makings of a major moment in Chinese history.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
From Facebook,

"Yes, USA politics is as dirty as it gets. But it's not democracy that is doing this. It is the way they allowed the corruption to happen in the name of democracy that is wrong. We are in a different place, a different era, different circumstances and we are a different people. We just have to make it right. I'm not saying it is easy. But we must walk the path. Telling our children you cannot have democracy just because other countries did it wrong is like the fairy tale where Dame/Mother Gothel locking up Rapunzel in a tower and not allowing her to see the world because there are bad people "out there"."

Too right.
 

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Posted by Lyrhawn (Member # 7039) on :
 
If they can capitalize on it. Occupy in America took a golden opportunity and frittered it away.
 

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Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 
I kind of doubt that the HK Occupy is going to have the same troubles endemic with Occupy's progressive stack uselessness and identity politics self-cannibalism
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
CY Leung's (CEO of Hong Kong) daughter decided to do some PR work for her father on Facebook.

Link.

Just kidding, she totally just set his PR campaign back several miles.
 

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Posted by Rakeesh (Member # 2001) on :
 
I'm not a Marxist, but god class warfare is honestly a thing.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
So yesterday a rent-a-mob was sent to attack protestors in Mong Kok. Police response was very limited and permissive. One of the protesting groups cancelled the negotiations with Mr. Leung's second over the incident. Unity between the protestors seems to have frayed just a little bit.

Numbers have dwindled as well, but I don't think that means people won't stream back out again if the right things happen.

I'm not sure what sort of compromise is possible. Beijing seems to have locked themselves into an uncompromising position. Seems like the bare minimum would be permitting the people of Hong Kong to elect a percentage of the panel that selects the CEO, but I don't think even that could be put on the table by Beijing.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I'm going to say the attacks on journalists are especially suspicious.

http://fcchk.org/article/fcc-condemns-attacks-journalists-covering-h-k-protests
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
More counter protestors try to remove the barricades in downtown Hong Kong.

The police still haven't tried to seriously enforce the government's demand the protestors clear the streets by this week. The protestors still appear to have a very healthy presence and entrenchment. I think so far we can expect the protestors really will stay for the long haul, and the people of Hong Kong are not resenting this development to the point the government doesn't have to actively do anything.

Government's move I think.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 


Link.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Chinese plainclothes policeman (allegedly) are caught on camera leading Civic Party member Ken Tsang off to a dark area and beating him. Allegedly he has claimed he was further slapped and hit with a heavy object at police headquarters. Photos of his injuries are being widely circulated.


Link.

A hundred protestors have stormed the HK police headquarters to lodge complaints against the officers and police handling of these protests. Things are definitely heating up, not quieting down.
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
CY Leung comes back to the table. Sorta.

I suspect it's another play for time, to see if the government appearing reasonable and willing to talk can deflate the movement.

Probably doesn't hurt that CY Leung is in the middle of his own political scandal, and needs to look proactive in governing rather than taking money from foreign firms surreptitiously.

I don't envy the calls CY Leung has to take from Beijing these days. The police brutality *really* put fuel on the protesting fire.
 

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Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 
"People of Hong Kong! I offer my daughter as tribute!"
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Hong Kong legco member argues that umbrellas are far more aggressive and deadly in a fight, than tear gas.

Link.

Not even exaggerating.

[ October 18, 2014, 01:39 AM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]
 

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Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
 
Pretty good synopsis by NYTs of where things are.

Link.

So what remains to be seen is which side can force the other's hand.
 

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Posted by Samprimary (Member # 8561) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by BlackBlade:
Hong Kong legco member argues that umbrellas are a far more aggressive and deadly in a fight, than tear gas.

Link.

Not even exaggerating.

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The level of support grew 6.7 percentage points from a poll a month earlier, and opposition shrank by 10.8 percentage points. The university conducted the earlier survey between September 10 and 17, just days before the class boycott started.

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Originally posted by JanitorBlade:
Investigative journalists are saying that for about 16 years China has been murdering political prisoners and criminals so as to harvest their organs.

Link.

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quote:

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Originally posted by JanitorBlade:
Investigative journalists are saying that for about 16 years China has been murdering political prisoners and criminals so as to harvest their organs.

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Originally posted here.
The three leading causes of death (diseases of the heart, malignant neoplasms, and cerebrovascular disease) accounted for 66.0 percent of deaths from all causes.

The five leading causes of death from vascular disease were cerebrovascular disease (mortality, 276.9 per 100,000 person-years), chronic pulmonary heart disease (137.6), coronary heart disease (85.5), heart failure (14.5), and rheumatic heart disease (9.7).

The five leading causes of death from cancer were malignant neoplasms of the lung (mortality, 71.5 per 100,000 person-years), liver (54.7), stomach (48.6), esophagus (31.3), and colon and rectum (17.4). However, stomach cancer was the second leading cause of death from cancer among women (Figure 1). [...]

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Originally posted in the above article:
Parts of the report, drawing from whistle blower testimonies and Chinese medical papers, state that some donors may not have even been dead when their organs were removed.

[...]

Most hospitals in China only perform liver and kidney transplants. They also rarely plan to transplant the kidneys and liver of a specific donor into two or three recipients at the same time, as would be common in the West.

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One thought, though: They do transplant mostly livers and kidneys, which happen to be the organs that can be taken from a person without killing them (one kidney per person, obviously, and more than half of the liver.). Then maybe the "donors" don't die. Maybe the "state secret" they spoke of is that in China it is (semi)legal to sell your organs? Which then would be kinda like a surrogate pregnancy...

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Originally posted by kmbboots:
Lungs, pancreas, intestine, corneas...

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In March 2006, U.S. Falun Gong representatives claimed that thousands of
practitioners had been sent to 36 concentration camps throughout the PRC,
particularly in the northeast, and that many of them were killed for profit through the
harvesting and sale of their organs. Many of these claims were based upon
allegations about one such camp in Sujiatun, a district of Shenyang city in Liaoning
province. The Epoch Times, a U.S.-based newspaper affiliated with Falun Gong, first
reported the story as told by a Chinese journalist based in Japan and a former
employee of a Sujiatun hospital that allegedly operated the camp and served as an
organ harvesting center.

According to Epoch Times reports, of an estimated 6,000 Falun Gong adherents detained there, three-fourths allegedly had their organs
removed and then were cremated or never seen again. American officials from the
U.S. Embassy in Beijing and the U.S. consulate in Shenyang visited the area as well
as the hospital site on two occasions — the first time unannounced and the second
with the cooperation of PRC officials — and after investigating the facility “found
no evidence that the site is being used for any function other than as a normal public
hospital.” Amnesty International spokespersons have stated that the claims of
systematic organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners cannot be confirmed or
denied.

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quote:

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Originally posted by kmbboots:
Lungs, pancreas, intestine, corneas...

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and skin. And vessels - which are not technically organs.

Intestine is very sensitive though and has to be transplanted within 2-6 hours. I.e. the doctors have to get to the donor, explant the organ, check it for diseases, transfer it to the recipient and implant it within that time. Which is why it is not done very often.

And the heart transplant is not really any more complicated than the lung, intestine or even pancreas transplant.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
As one might expect from CNN, the CNN link actually includes no investigation. It merely links to and largely repeats your second link.

Your second link is to an organization headed by David Kilgour and David Matas. That completes the circle, these authors are also named in the same Congressional report.

quote:

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On July 6, 2006, two Canadian investigators,
former Liberal Member of Parliament David Kilgour and David Matas, an
international human rights attorney, published Report into Allegations of Organ
Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners in China. The report concludes that the
allegations that “large numbers” of Falun Gong practitioners in the People’s Republic
of China (PRC) have been victims of live organ harvesting are true. For the most
part, however, the report does not bring forth new or independently-obtained
testimony and relies largely upon the making of logical inferences. The authors had
conducted their investigation in response to a request by the Coalition to Investigate
the Persecution of the Falun Gong in China (CIPFG), a U.S.-based, non-profit
organization founded by the Falun Dafa Association in April 2006. In addition to
interviewing the same former Sujiatun hospital worker as featured in the Epoch
Times, Kilgour and Matas refer to recordings of telephone conversations provided by
CIPFG.

...

The report’s conclusions rely heavily upon transcripts of telephone calls in which PRC
respondents reportedly stated that organs removed from live Falun Gong detainees
were used for transplants. Some argue that such apparent candor would seem
unlikely given Chinese government controls over sensitive information, which may
raise questions about the credibility of the telephone recordings.

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Jeremy Chapman, an Australian transplant surgeon and former president of the Transplantation Society, which is based in Montreal, called the estimates in the new report “pure imagination piled upon political intent.”

He questioned whether China has sufficient transplant surgeons to carry out tens of thousands of operations. “Pharma companies in China have been providing nowhere near enough medication for this number, and felt the downturn with the reduction in transplants as the executed prisoner organs dried up,” he said.

...

He also questioned the underpinnings of the new report. “Look at the sources of those documents. They are all Falun Gong,” he said.

Many of the report’s researchers, a network of Chinese-speaking volunteers, are Falun Gong practitioners. The primary authors – including the Nobel-nominated Mr. Kilgour and Mr. Matas – do not adhere to Falun Gong.

They heavily document their work, with 2,360 footnotes. Of the small number verified by The Globe and Mail, each matched with the report contents, although some point to unattributed Falun Gong research.

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/report-alleges-china-killing-thousands-of-prisoners-to-harvest-organs/article30559415/

Ten years later, the same authors still do their work with no real access and working with a Falun Gong staff.


 

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Posted by JanitorBlade (Member # 12343) on :
 
Mucus: Sorry for taking so long. But are you saying you don't believe China is killing anyone so as to harvest organs?
 

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Posted by Parkour (Member # 12078) on :
 
Individually I think they probably are but the Falun Gong's claims through this organization aren't really evidence that would prove the scale and tremendousness of this claimed rate of organ harvest.

China does some pretty creepy stuff but the falun gong people have made some pretty crazy allegations overall.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
JB: Are you saying that you don't believe that anyone in the US is killing anyone to harvest organs? Anyone at all?

Of course in a country as large as the US or China, it is possible, somewhere. That is not the question at hand. The question is proof of scale and how systematic it is. The Falun Gong have shown no good proof as to either. It shouldn't be hard to show proof either if their interpretation of the scale was correct.

Instead, we have probably faked data with a heavy layer of Falun Gong fanciful interpretation telling Americans what they want to hear.

I no more believe their interpretation of the scale of the problem than I believe that 200 million Chinese have contacted the Epoch Times to quit the CCP.

And there's no virtue in siding with such company, the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend in other words. Such obvious fabrications only discredit real credible opposition in the best case scenario. In the worst case scenario, they can lead to tragic miscalculations, if you'll recall Curveball and the Iraq War.
 

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Posted by JanitorBlade (Member # 12343) on :
 
Ah, I see. Thanks for responding. I agree the scale could be off, but hasn't the Chinese government already admitted it takes organs from prisoners on death row? And that that practice has likely not stopped?
 

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Posted by JanitorBlade (Member # 12343) on :
 
I mean it's this or annex Vancouver right?

Link.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 
I've read a bunch of news/responses on that. In my opinion, it's one of the more saavy political responses I've seen from a provincial politician. Reap potentially 1 billion per year from foreigners who literally don't have a vote or discourage a housing bubble (getting some credit from young people?). It seems like a win-win unless they do provoke a crash and annoy some boomers, which would still be worth it.

They also did it the right way by copying a tax from Hong Kong that has proven to be successful instead of inventing their own and they did it in mostly secret with a short deadline to avoid too much of an avoidance rush.
 

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Posted by Mucus (Member # 9735) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by JanitorBlade:
Ah, I see. Thanks for responding. I agree the scale could be off, but hasn't the Chinese government already admitted it takes organs from prisoners on death row? And that that practice has likely not stopped?

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