posted
It's a death blow according to me as well. Once the UEFA playoffs were finished and two of three top seeds one (Czech's over Norway, Spain over Slovakia, while the underdog (but favored by some) Swiss knocked Turkey out it was clear that UEFA's strength in the World Cup this year was so obvious, and deep that two groups of death, rather than one would be the reality, particularly when the seedings were announced last tuesday and Holland, Portugal, and the Czech Republic, all considered among the best six or seven international teams in the world went unseeded (Holland due to missing the '02 World Cup after getting bounced in the UEFA qualifying group of death, Portugal due to a terrible performance in '02 and missing '98 in France, and the Czech's for missing both '02 and '98 after losing playoff home and away series).
The Groups were announced today and due to the structure of the seedings, and pots, it was virtually impossible for the US to land in one Group of death, Group C, which quickly featured Argentina, favorites in '02 who crashed out early, and the only team to Beat Brazil by more than one goal in a very, very long time, six months ago, and Holland, two time World Cup Champion Runner Up, and traditional power that has been snake bit, for decades when it comes to winning it all (the Dutch teams of '74, '78, '94 and '98 were considered true challengers for the crown, but were up ended each time). When Serbia and Montenegro, a team that won a group with #1 seed Spain, was added to the group, and African darlings Ivory Coast landed in as well, we had one group of death.
The US, unlikely to be drawn into group C, or Brazil's due to the pot and rule structure, and Mexico's entirely due to confederation rules, now would land with Germany, England, Italy, France or Spain. Following the first three sections of the draw, the US had to be hoping to land with Germany, France or Spain. Group E (with Italy), had landed the Czech Republic, a dark horse contender to win it all after nearly winning Euro '04 18 months ago, and Ghana, the other African favorites. Meanwhile Germany had landed Ecuador, a CONMEBOL (South America) patsy who can't get results outside their home grounds high in the mountains in Quito, and Poland, one of the weaker sides to qualify out of Europe, definitely a group the US would like to land in. England's group featured Sweden, a power we would not want to play, and Paraguay a traditional second tier power in South America who have been better than the bottom of the barrell squads from Cup to Cup, but not much better than that, landing in England's group would be a very difficult challenge but not as tough as landing with Italy. Spain and France had both received cake draws. Spain landing Ukraine, a team featuring one of the two best strikers in the world in Schevchenko that played well in qualifying but is not fancied, and Tunisia, known for it's anti-soccer tendencies (only attack on the counter, defend, defend, defend and hope for a bit of a luck or a break), while France had landed an unimpressive Swiss team, and Togo, surprise qualifyers from the group that featured last Cup's surprise team Senegal but also unfancied.
Where did we land? We landed in Group E with Italy (considered one of the top five teams in the world though they've struggled in recent years due to poor coaching, and a weak team mentality), the Czech Republic (Euro '04 semi-finalists, and a dark horse favorite to win it ), all)and Ghana, a traditional African power in youth tournaments and the African Nations Cup whose never made the final and features one of the best midfielders in the world.
What are our chances? Not good at all. I'd give us about 1 chance in 4 of advancing at best. What makes it even worse is the schedule, we play the Czech's, then Italy, then Ghana, which means we'll be playing the Czech's and Italians when they absolutely have to win, as they do not want to have to get points off one another in the last game of group play. Since we play neither last, we won't be able to catch a team resting players due to injury or yellow card accumulation either and finally the Italians, traditional slow starters known for playing down to the competition, and playing poorly in their first game, will be playing us second when they must win.
Can we get ouf the group? Maybe, but even if by some luck, we manage to advance over teams signifigantly more talented than us (i hesitate to say better considering that Italy rarely plays as well as the sum of their parts, while the US rarely plays below the sum of its parts), we'll have to face Brazil unless we win the group, in the Round of 16.
The Groups and My Predictions:
Group A: 1. Germany* 2. Poland* 3. Ecuador 4. Costa Rica
Group B: 1. England* 2. Sweden* 3. Paraguay 4. T&T
Group C: 1. Argentina* 2. Holland* 3. Ivory Coast 4. Serbia and Montenegro
Group D: 1. Portugal* 2. Mexico* 3. Iran 4. Angola
Group E: 1. Czech Republic 2. Italy 3. USA 4. Ghana
Group F: 1. Brazil* 2. Croatia* 3. Australia 4. Japan
Group G: 1. France* 2. Togo* 3. Switzerland 4. South Korea
Group H: 1. Spain 2. Ukraine 3. Tunisia 4. Saudi Arabia
To Advance out of the Round of 16:
Sweden over Germany Argentina over Mexico England over Poland Holland over Portugal Brazil over Italy Czech Republic over Croatia Ukraine over France Spain over Togo**** My ridiculous surprise team
To Advance out of the QF's:
Argentina over Sweden Czech Republic over Ukraine Netherlands over England Brazil over Spain
To advance to the Final: Brazil over Netherlands Argentina over Czech Republic
Final:
Brazil over Argentina
I may have to take another look at this , as it's pretty hard to imagine an all CONMEBOL Final in Europe, especially considering UEFA has traditionally advanced 3 of 4 teams to the semifinals. Probably a more likely scenario is either the Czech's or the Italians playing Brazil in the Final, but unless the Italians win Group E, that can't happen, and I see the Czech's winning the group, if Italy wins the group, I'll go with a repeat of the USA '94 final, where Italy and Brazil square off.
What are your thoughts on the draw, our chances and what you expect to happen?
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posted
<-----Is predicting England will win it for the first time in 40 years.
Owen and Rooney make an incredible striker duo, and the midfield is great with Beckham leading the way. I think England will take it over Argentina.
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posted
Heh. My Argentinean friends have already started complaining about a FIFA conspiracy since this is the second Mundial in a row that they've had a bad draw and Brazil has had a relatively easy draw. So they don't think Argentina's going to get very far.
As to my opinions - well, everything I learned about soccer I learned last World Cup. And I haven't paid attention since (except to taunt my Mexican friends when the US beats them). So it's probably not worth it for me to make predictions, at least not yet. I'll just happily sit back and root for the US and Spain or any other team that catches my fancy.
Posts: 959 | Registered: Jan 2002
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posted
The draw is absolutely ridiculous. Not only did Mexico, second place out of the CONCACAF region, get a seed while the US didn't, but they got possibly the easiest draw in the tournament. Granted, the Portugese are no slouches, but Angola and Iran are both relative pushovers. Despite the ridiculous draw for the US and I think the second tough draw in row after they got both host South Korea and Poland in 2002 I still think they have a decent chance of advancing. I like the ability of the US to get draws against Italy and the Czech Republic and then beat Ghana. In that scenario all they would need to get out of the group would be to have a better differential than either Italy or Czech if they draw against each other or for one to beat the other.
Personally, I don't think so highly of Europe. Both France and Switzerland qualified despite the fact that neither team was able to beat Israel on either occassion and the Swiss only broke out of their group over Israel on goal differential. In my opinion the Europeans are good at keeping themselves in power by essentially controlling the seeds which enables the seeded teams to do well and then get seeded again the following tournament. Of course, none of this provides any reason why the US didn't get seeded because not only did they win the CONCACAF region but they beat Mexico in 2002 to advance to the quarterfinals. Maybe the world just considers 2002 a fluke, after all Turkey couldn't even qualify after being semi-finalists and fellow semi-finalists South Korea didn't get a seed either.
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posted
Personally, I find it more electrifying than any tournament or league playoffs in world sport. Some say the NCAA tournament is more exciting, but entire countries and continents live and die with what transpires in 90 minutes in this tournament, it is glory, or ignominy all packed into one month of sound, color, passion and "the beautiful game".
England's got a horrific road, and frankly, I don't think there is anyway in hell they'll get through it. They'll have to win their group, then oust one team from a group that includes Portugal/Netherlands/and Argentina in the Quarterfinals, and then in the semi's, if they make it, they'll have to oust either the Czech's, the Italians, or most likely Brazil. Then if by some miracle they make it to the final, their foe will likely be either Germany, Argentina/Netherlands, or Czech Republic/Italy.
How are they gonna do that? The answer is, I don't think they will. They, much like Italy, and Spain rarely ever play as well as the sum of their parts, kind of the polar opposite of the US, a team which has one player, who might be rated among the worlds top 100 (compare that to Brazil that has at least six: Adriano, Ronaldo, Kaka, Robinho, Ronaldinho, Dida, and as many say, Brazil has two separate first XI's that could be potential favorites to win it all, and their C team would be a contender to make the quarterfinals). England also has a huge problem in the midfield, where they don't have enough slots for their stars and are forced to play Lampard and Gerrard together even though they do not work effectively together, as yet. This is England's most talented collection of players since '66 and '70, but they don't play as good as the sum of their parts and that will spell their doom, that and their iffy coach Errickson.
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quote:Originally posted by newfoundlogic: The draw is absolutely ridiculous. Not only did Mexico, second place out of the CONCACAF region, get a seed while the US didn't, but they got possibly the easiest draw in the tournament. Granted, the Portugese are no slouches, but Angola and Iran are both relative pushovers. Despite the ridiculous draw for the US and I think the second tough draw in row after they got both host South Korea and Poland in 2002 I still think they have a decent chance of advancing. I like the ability of the US to get draws against Italy and the Czech Republic and then beat Ghana. In that scenario all they would need to get out of the group would be to have a better differential than either Italy or Czech if they draw against each other or for one to beat the other.
Personally, I don't think so highly of Europe. Both France and Switzerland qualified despite the fact that neither team was able to beat Israel on either occassion and the Swiss only broke out of their group over Israel on goal differential. In my opinion the Europeans are good at keeping themselves in power by essentially controlling the seeds which enables the seeded teams to do well and then get seeded again the following tournament. Of course, none of this provides any reason why the US didn't get seeded because not only did they win the CONCACAF region but they beat Mexico in 2002 to advance to the quarterfinals. Maybe the world just considers 2002 a fluke, after all Turkey couldn't even qualify after being semi-finalists and fellow semi-finalists South Korea didn't get a seed either.
You can also add that the US is 7-2-1 against Mexico since the begining of 2000, with 14 goals for and 3 against, the US won the Gold Cup in 2002, and 2005 and lost in 2003 semi's to Brazil in extra time due to a dubious offsides goal Brazil scored to win (Brazil equalized in the 89th minute, to make the defeat even more painful). The Gold Cup is the bi-annual tournament to determine the Champion of Concacaf and who will represent our region in the Confederation Cup. So the US has dominated Mexico for five years, beat them convincingly in the World Cup, won their qualifying group ahead of mexico (admittedly on the aggregate against one another for tiebreaker, USA 3 Mexico 2 on that tiebreaker), and won two of the last three confederation championships, while Mexico got rolled in two of the last three. The reason we were screwed is basically the equivalent of determining the BCS Series based on 8 years of results. Results that go into their formula include games played in the World Cup of 1998, nearly eight freaking years ago. Needless to say, that's what killed us, that and the dour performance at the Confed Cup in '03 (getting jobbed by the refs against Turkey (denied a clear PK, and then Turkey wins 2-1 on a PK after they handled the ball (player controlled ball with his hands)on the play where they supposedly earned a PK in the box, getting beaten by Brazil 0-1 on a fluke goal, and drawing Cameroon while playing our scrubs).
The seedings process is an absurd joke, the results should be based on one world cup, one confederation championship, and on qualifying, period. It's not, its used, as you mentioned, to reinforce the powers dominion over the championship, and to occasionally reward sides looked favorably upon, or punish those disliked (Aussies forced playoff against Uruguay instead of Bahrain occured as payback for the Oceania vote abstention, screw job of South Africa for the '06 World Cup bid. This tournament was going to be held in South Africa, but payoffs several years ago involving Oceania or just incompetance, stole the cup from South Africa. Oceania was paid back for this presumption by forcing them to play against Conmebol to go to the World Cup). Essentially FIFA is run like the IOC is/was in its most corrupt hey-day.
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My dad made an interesting comparison, he said the FIFA draw is like the Politburo where they choose their own successors. I think that's pretty accurrate with the only difference being that they aren't picking their successors, but just keeping themselves in power.
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Damn fine analogy. When you set up the formula for seeding while you're actually doing the seedings, it is too ridiculous and absurd to take seriously, and that's exactly what FIFA does. There is no measure of transparency whatsoever in this process of seeding, it's run in the tradition of the IOC.
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I'm feeling a bit better about the draw a week later. It's true it couldn't have been worse, once Serbia was drawn into Argentina's group, only six groups were available to be drawn into, and of course we got dumped in the worst possible group. C'est la vie, the best we can do is go out and show that we're better than everyone, even ourselves, believe. It's fully possible. As of now, I'm gonna predict that Brazil will face either Argentina, or Italy, or the Czech Republic in the final.
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They should advance , they got a cake group. Ecuador or Costa Rica could still surprise but Ecuador can't seem to beat anyone outside Quito.
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, as it's pretty hard to imagine an all CONMEBOL Final in Europe, especially considering UEFA has traditionally advanced 3 of 4 teams to the semifinals. Probably a more likely scenario is either the Czech's or the Italians playing Brazil in the Final, but unless the Italians win Group E, that can't happen, and I see the Czech's winning the group, if Italy wins the group, I'll go with a repeat of the USA '94 final, where Italy and Brazil square off. 
