posted
I’ve decided to start again writing my first ever, and still favourite, story idea into a novel. I was wondering if anyone would be interested in rating the likelihood of the following scenario to help me decide if my premise can be compelling enough to readers. When I’m done writing the first chapter, I’ll post the first 13 here and offer to email anyone who wants the whole chapter of course.
Those that are interested, rate from 1 to 10 what you think is the likelihood of each of the following real world scenarios taking place. Also feel free to state why.
All questions are by the year 2020:
1. The entire Middle East becoming “First World”. 2. Japan going to war with Russia. 3. Japan purchasing a large chunk of eastern Russian land. 4. China still being Communist. 5. An end to protectionist trade policies in every single country. 6. France still being as, or more, “left” as it is now. 7. The Eurasian Land Bridge being built. 8. The U.N. imposing taxes on actual nations. 9. The U.N. still existing. 10. The United States going to war with Japan or China. 11. A nuclear weapon being used in war. 12. Human cloning specifically for (any) government (anywhere in the world) purposes.
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I disagree on MaGlick's nuclear weapon guess. I'd say 4. We've lasted this long- there's always been crazy people.
Most of the others I'd say they are the same as today. 2020 is only 14 years away. Unless something really dramatic happens (perhaps if a nuclear weapon or seven was used in war) I think that things will continue to evolve at a fairly slow pace.
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1. 1 2. 1 3. 6 4. 7 5. 3 6. 2 7. 1, because that's a loony Larouche website 8. don't they get dues now? what's the difference? 9. 9 10. 1 Japan, 3 China 11. 8, if you include a single smuggled weapon 5 in a regular military delivery (plane, missle, etc.) 12. 8
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Reticulum, you think there's going to be a war between US and China within 14 years for sure? And that a nuke will be used? 100% on those?
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quote:Why do you think Japan would go to war with Russia?
I need Japan to have significantly more land for my mileau to work. Russia's land in the east seemed the most practical for them to seek. This paragraph from OSC's Empire (Chapter 3) made me decide to change the way they go about getting it:
quote:"The ideology doesn't matter. You're right, no one cares enough. So here's when you'll get ready to shoot your neighbor: When you're convinced that your neighbor is arming himself to shoot you."
7. LaRouche is a nutjob, but I need that "Land Bridge" for the first scenario to be plausible.
8. What the U.N. is continually trying to pull off is actual head taxes on international citizens, specifically US citizens. But I have to finish reading Empire first, to make sure my stories USA scenario doesn't have too much in common with his.
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Why is it, we see socialist nations developing at an extremely slow pace, and then we see communist nations (and communism is supposed to be a more extreme form of socialism) developing at an extremely fast pace?
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China's not a communist nation, nor is communism supposed to be a more extreme form of socialism.
China is ruled by the communist party, but that does not make it communist. It is only somewhat communist in its governance, and it is not very communist at all in its economic policies.
China is able to develop quickly because it is leveraging itself up on the advances of nations before it, much as South Korea has done recently, and Japan less recently.
First world nations develop more slowly because they are the ones forging the path(s). Third world nations can (but are by no means guaranteed to) develop much quicker by taking advantage of knowledge of first world experiences (and first world investment and educational systems, of course).
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quote:I need Japan to have significantly more land for my mileau to work. Russia's land in the east seemed the most practical for them to seek.
If that's what you need to have happen for your story to work, then it almost doesn't matter how likely it is. That said, I find the prospect of Japan engaging in a war of conquest unlikely in the extreme. Their constitution specifically renounces offensive wars, and as such, their long range combat potential is severely limited.
Japan buying part of Russia, while still unlikely, seems far more plausible.
The quote you posted makes me suspect that the sequence of events you are envisioning would go something like this:
1. Japan purchases land from Russia. We can assume that Russia was in some dire economic straights indeed to be willing to part with a piece of the motherland.
2. After some time, in which Japan has industrialized said piece of land and/or discovered some previously unknown natural resource, Russia realizes, "oops, we made a mistake."
3. Russia starts rattling sabers.
4. War.
Even in a scenario like this, it seems far more likely to me that Russia would be the aggressor. Japan hasn't maintained an army with offensive capabilities in over fifty years. The business of Japan, moreso than any other country on Earth, is business.
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I was thinking more along the lines of the Japanese (not all) conspiring to put Russia in those dire economic straights to make the land easier to purchase. Then an even smaller group of Russians (the main bad guy is a Russian) -- knowing the conspiracy the Japanese have just commited -- convincing the Russian people that the Japan is "arming himself to shoot at you", so to speak. An escalation to war begins and Japan, with their newly acquired land, is in a much better position to fight Russia. And they win. The main bad guy is pissed off and spends over a decade (the story I want to write is set in the 2030s) trying to get revenge.
That's all background though. Reading about OSC only writing Ender's Game because he wanted to write SOTG and needed a background story prequel. I'd prefer to not have to do a background story just for that, however.
Edit: Japan would also amend their Constitution -- to allow for agressive war -- during the escalation. Or so I would have it...
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This is the last time I had a go at starting out this story, well over a year ago. I wasn't that good with words back then. Whether I'm any better now is debatable, but we'll soon see. It's nothing but background info.
quote:The men, women and children of marvelous Japan were few in number. But in the Era of Energy, large numbers were useless. But more than anything, they wanted desperately to go to Mars, so they first had to lower the population enough to get the Empiricists all to be able to go. Then the Earth would finally be free. And on Mars, they would be free.
When the Era of Energy finally dawned, East and Southern Asia, and even as far south as Australia and New Zealand, saw it as their chance to lead the world, a change that hadn’t occurred since the American Revolution. Leading by example, they quickly sought to lower the world population by forcing everybody into concentrated areas and willing them to want to live comfortably by lowering population density.
In the swift change that occurred all over the world, India and China – with their massive populations – soon became the poorest countries in the World. Devastation reined anywhere there was too dense a population.
Japan had offered to buy Eastern Russia, for a massive sum by Russian standards, and when the Russian Government declined they soon turned to dealings with the Russian Underworld. In the end, Japan had their land for mining resources, and the Great Russian Mafya ended up controlling the entire European political structure. But, interestingly enough, the new responsibility gave the Mafya a slightly renewed respect for the government and crime rates in the area boldly declined.
posted
Ahh, I see where you're going, cheiros. Although I still think the Japanese would be highly unlikely to initiate a war, your scenario is at least plausible.
quote:How do professional writers handle truck loads of background info, besides writing prequels?
Although I'm not a professional writer (although I do like to think I reach passable at times), I can tell you methods that I think work well in books I've read. I think my favorite method in dealing with this problem is to use a "Need to Know" basis. That is, just jump into the story and provide background as it's required/desired. I favor this approach in reading, especially in worlds that are appreciably different from this one, because I find it makes it easier for me to recall the historical events of that world. Simply having a prologue that covers the history you want to cover can be effective, but even then I find I have to consult it several times throughout the story, which can be distracting.
For what it's worth.
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quote:Ahh, I see where you're going, cheiros. Although I still think the Japanese would be highly unlikely to initiate a war, your scenario is at least plausible.
Think of it less as war and more as a land grab. Does it seem unlikely for an overly dense population in a country as developed as Japan will be a decade from now to initiate a land grab?
As for the rest, you've been very helpful. I'm going to start writing it again now.
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posted
Just to be clear, I don't want it to seem like I'm crapping on your ideas. They're intruiging, but certrain kinds of interactions between nations don't seem all that plausible.
Honestly, I have an easier time imagining Japan building new land.
I could see Japan attempting an economically driven land grab. It's just that I think nations know the value of territory, and would be loathe to part with it except under the most dire circumstances. As an author, though, it is certainly in your power to make those circumstances come about.
EDIT - Good luck with the writing! (Break a pencil? Keyboard?)
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The old USSR was the closest to communist that has appeared on this planet. Their politics were more totalitarian, but their economics were fairly communist (plus corruption!). Even if their economy had been managed competently (which it emphatically wasn't) they almost certainly would have failed, because the amount of information necessary to perpetuate a successful command economy (that is, to be the optimal social planner) is astronomical. Even if they didn't fail completely, they would have ony hobbled along.
Japan is extremely likely to acquire chunks of eastern Russia, no manipulation involved. However, its not so much the land that'll interest them as mineral rights and companies capable of exploiting the mineral rights. Right now Japanese direct investment in Russia is very low compared to in other countries, largely due to chilly relations, lack of economic dialogue, and Putin (lately).
If Russia ever thaws a bit towards Japan (likely after Putin leaves power), economic ties are likely to increase over time. In 14 years there will probably be significant Japanese direct investment in eastern Russia. Many important people are and have been agitating for it for a while.
Japan is not going to do this out of any attempt to cripple Russia, nor would there be any need to put Russia in dire straights. That wouldn't even be possible, really, since the economic ties between the nations are so low, not to mention that the Japanese businesses (the ones doing the buying of Russian mineral rights and businesses) aren't out to do the government's political bidding, but to make money, and they can make money far better if the Russian economy is healthy. Japanese investment in Russia would help the economies of both countries. Economics is not a zero sum game.
You're right, Japan likely will have amended their constitution by 2020 to allow for the possibility of initiating armed conflict.
The Japanese government would never purchase part of eastern Russia. Its not a very pleasant place, they don't (and won't) have the money, and there's no reason. For that matter, Russia and Japan still have that dispute over some islands up there (which Putin has just escalated), so while economic relations could open up, political relations are unlikely to.
Russia would sell some mineral rich land in southeastern Russia to the Chinese before they would sell land (on a governmental basis) to Japan.
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quote:Just to be clear, I don't want it to seem like I'm crapping on your ideas. They're intruiging, but certrain kinds of interactions between nations don't seem all that plausible.
It's not really Japan doing it. It's a small group that don't neccessarily represent the views of all Japanese people any more than the current Islamic terrorists represent the views of all muslims. Similiar with the Russians in my scenario.
I'm still trying to figure out where I was supposed to get the impression that you were "crapping on my ideas".
[ August 14, 2006, 01:09 PM: Message edited by: cheiros do ender ]
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quote:The Japanese government would never purchase part of eastern Russia. Its not a very pleasant place, they don't (and won't) have the money, and there's no reason. For that matter, Russia and Japan still have that dispute over some islands up there (which Putin has just escalated), so while economic relations could open up, political relations are unlikely to.
You don't think Japan will ever attain control of those islands (which are, after all, part of Eastern Russia)?
That land might be largely unpleasant now, but parts of it are being fruitfully exploited by Russian business (can't remember if it was criminals... or maybe that was just a conspiracy theory) and I believe they'd do exceptionally well in Japanese hands.
Hokay. The areas with their names circled are purchased. Then when war escalates the area that says EBG is where war first breaks out, and to secure their hold of this land Japan makes an advance north where the arrow is drawn.
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quote:I'm still trying to figure out where I was supposed to get the impression that you were "crapping on my ideas".
You weren't necessarily. I just get socially paranoid in situation's like this one. Thank you for calming my irattional fears.
quote:You're right, Japan likely will have amended their constitution by 2020 to allow for the possibility of initiating armed conflict.
I guess my problem here is that a large part of the economic success of post-war Japan has been their very limited military budget. A war of conquest earned them nothing but two nukes, while their focus on business has made them one of the worlds economic superpowers. I think most Japanese are smart enough to realize this.
The small conspiracy angle cheiros seems to be pursuing, however, makes the situation more plausible, but I have doubts that Japan as a whole would move in that direction without some sort of revolutionary nationalist movement. And it would have to spring up any day now to achieve anything substancial by 2020.
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posted
The islands aren't all that interesting, and Japan and Russia are likely to keep disputing them for a long time. There's little incentive to go to war over them (read: none), and without a war neither side is likely to rescind its claim. Also, its hardly Japan acquiring a large part of eastern Russia, because their contention is the islands are part of Japan, and the islands are relatively small.
As I said, Japanese businessmen would definitely purchase businesses in eastern Russia if able to. They aren't able to right now for a variety of reasons, but that will be thawing in the near future (next ten years), probably.
The inhospitability is why Japan the country won't be buying any of those areas. The only reason Japan as a country might possibly, theoretically want some more land is to put some people on it, and since the Japanese population is rapidly declining, plus most would not move to such an inhospitable region . . . the possibility of it happening in the next 14 years is nil.
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