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Author Topic: College Football, Best Time of the Year
Ecthalion
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in most books i think
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FlyingCow
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Personally, I'd probably respect a one-loss Florida, Auburn, or Tennessee more than an undefeated WVU or UofL. At least this year.

The Big East has had a lot of national spotlight this year and last, and has been bringing in a lot of nationally recognized recruits. Some good bowl showings (and possibly a shot at a national title) would definitely boost recruiting, and more serious Heisman talk for Slaton and Rice next year as juniors will do so as well.

If (and it's a big if) the Big East can continue to perform the way it has this year and last, it could steal away a lot of those players who would have formerly headed to the SEC or other major BCS conference.

Unfortunately, schedules are planned 5 years in advance, and our conference OOC schedule strength isn't going to get immediately better. The best thing we could do is to buyout some of the I-AA contract games and try to replace them with BCS games, but we're still locked into contracts with the likes of UNC, Ohio, and Illinois.

Even so, the "one-loss SEC team trumps undefeated Big East team" concept will hopefully become a thing of the past in the next few years.

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Jay
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Yes, future schedules do help. WVU’s is fun: http://westvirginia.scout.com/3/fbfuturesched.html
We have a few bum ones, but we also have Auburn, Michigan State, and Florida State.
We had Maryland back out of our yearly game for a couple of seasons. Guess they were getting tired of getting spanked!

I’m pretty excited about tomorrow’s game. We’re leaving in the morning for the drive down.

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FlyingCow
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I watched the Boise St v. Fresno St game and had a long post with commentary throughout. Then, when I tried to post it, hatrack ate it and it was lost forever.

Sigh.

Here are the highlights I can remember:

First Quarter: The game felt like a high school game with better facilities, and both teams came out like they had just woken up. 7-3 to Fresno St? Clearly neither of these teams are ready for primetime.

Second Quarter: BSU finally wakes up and starts playing some football against a really, really bad Fresno St defense. The only thing worse than the Fresno defense is their offense. The refs obviously feel that offensive holding was removed from the rulebook before the game.

Third Quarter: BSU shows signs of being a legitimate team before falling asleep again at the end of the quarter. BSU defensive back and Piscataway, NJ native Kyle Wilson gets some love from the announcers after some big hits. BSU hands Fresno their first interception of the season.

Fourth Quarter: Fresno shows some signs of life when a WR goes uncovered for a touchdown. Uncovered? You've gotta be kidding me. The refs finally rediscover the rules regarding offensive holding. Johnson gets absurd Heisman talk that's even more ridiculous than Ray Rice or Steve Slaton's. 20 TDs against WAC defenses isn't anything to be proud of - that's like saying you've stolen candy from 20 babies.

Final comments: BSU is a good team that can be very inconsistant and has mental lapses. In a good conference, they'd probably finish third or so, with a 10-2 or 9-3 record. A top BCS team would exploit their weaknesses and take advantage of their inconsistency.

They'll backdoor into the Fiesta Bowl and lose by more than two touchdowns. Johnson will get less than 100 yards and Zabranksy will finally see some pressure and sacks.

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Frisco
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quote:
First Quarter: The game felt like a high school game with better facilities, and both teams came out like they had just woken up. 7-3 to Fresno St? Clearly neither of these teams are ready for primetime.
For one, it was 10-7 BSU after the first quarter. Two, a "low" scoring quarter is a sign of teams not ready for prime time?

Besides, Boise was a late touchdown against its backup D from beating Fresno just as badly as #13 LSU did a week ago. And had they not run the clock out to end the game, they could've probably scored again (though there are now penalties for running up the score in the computer polls). Is LSU not ready for prime time, either?

If it felt like a high school game, it was likely because Boise doesn't have the giant football stadium the big conferences do. Well, that and the FSU offense. Their defense and special teams accounted for two of the scores (they have speed and athletes, I give them that), but their only offensive score was a blown coverage from the BSU bench.

quote:
Final comments: BSU is a good team that can be very inconsistant and has mental lapses. In a good conference, they'd probably finish third or so, with a 10-2 or 9-3 record. A top BCS team would exploit their weaknesses and take advantage of their inconsistency.
Recently, 10-2 or 9-3 would have been more than enough for BSU to get the BCS bid in the Big East. [Razz] Hell, wasn't Pitt 7-4 a few years back when they went to the Orange Bowl?

And one blown coverage (a big one, but not by players likely to play against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl) and they're inconsistent?

They held FSU to 105 yards of offense before they threw in the scrubs late in the third quarter, and the offense scored on six of their first seven drives.

Their passing defense is their weakness, yes, but Texas isn't exactly the kind of team that can exploit that. I foresee a close game.

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El JT de Spang
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quote:
20 TDs against WAC defenses isn't anything to be proud of - that's like saying you've stolen candy from 20 babies.
That sounds like something someone who's never played so much as a down of football would say. 20 TDs against any level competition is something to be proud of. If you want to make the point that WAC defenses are weak, I'd take another angle.
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Frisco
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True...and Ian Johnson had 240 yards and 5 touchdowns against an Oregon State defense that ranks third in the Pac-10 against the run--they allow 96 yards a game and held USC to 101 yards on the ground.

In fact, take Ian Johnson't game out of OSU's schedule (since he's just a candy-stealing WAC wussy), and their average drops to 74.9 yards a game allowed on the ground, which would be #8 in the nation (they're 20th, currently).

[ November 02, 2006, 11:32 AM: Message edited by: Frisco ]

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FlyingCow
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El JT, I'm not saying he's a bad player, just that 20 touchdowns against bad teams isn't much better than 14 touchdowns against good teams.

Looking up his stats, he's scored:
2 TDs v. Fresno (59th rush defense)
4 TDs v. NM State (78th rush defense)
5 TDs v. Oregon St (20th rush defense)
0 TDs v. Wyoming (38th rush defense)
2 TDs v. Hawaii (80th rush defense)
0 TDs v. Utah (112th rush defense)
1 TD v. La Tech (118th rush defense)
4 TDs v. Idaho (74th rush defense)
2 TDs v. Sacramento State (I-AA)

Edit: Was looking at Oregon, not Oregon St.

He's seen exactly three rush defenses in the top half of the country, and has scored 13 of his TDs vs. rush defenses ranked 74th or lower. The average I-A rush defense he's seen is 72nd.

By comparison, James Davis (also a sophomore) of Clemson has 17 TDs against an average rush defense of 59th (with 7 of those TDs coming against the top 25 rush defenses in the country).

And Johnson gets the Heisman talk? It's just silly.

Frisco,

quote:
For one, it was 10-7 BSU after the first quarter. Two, a "low" scoring quarter is a sign of teams not ready for prime time?
My mistake on the score - in my original hatrack-eaten recap, I'm sure I had that TD in the first quarter, but my memory somehow jumped it to the second... probably because of the quality of play there had been for the first 14 minutes.

It wasn't the low score, but the quality of play overall. Both teams were playing terribly. BSU starts with a three and out with Johnson getting tackled for a loss - against Fresno's defense? Then, later, again against Fresno's tissue paper defense, they needed a fake punt to get a first down? Fresno didn't even get a first down until the second quarter.

After that performance, I was shaking my head wondering how BSU even went 8-0 so far - and even more about why ESPN chose to televize a game involving Fresno.

They finally started playing after about the first 14 minutes or so, but coming out that poorly against any of the top 10 teams in the country would have had them in a 14-0 hole.

quote:
Is LSU not ready for prime time, either?
LSU didn't let Fresno score 21 points - in fact, they didn't allow a single touchdown, backup players or not. There weren't any points put up by Fresno in the 4th quarter, and only a field goal each in the second and third quarters. There also weren't any kickoff return touchdowns for 93 yards.

quote:
Recently, 10-2 or 9-3 would have been more than enough for BSU to get the BCS bid in the Big East.
Recently. This year, BSU would finish behind L'ville, WVU, and likely Rutgers - and possibly post a loss against Pitt and Cincy. I'm not saying BSU is bad, just that they haven't earned a BCS bid. 10-2 and 9-3 are both very good records, and BSU is a good team, but the way they're sneaking into the BCS ahead of better teams rubs me the wrong way.

As an aside, I don't know why BSU didn't just hoist 40 yard pass plays every time they had the ball, seeing how Fresno had no pressure on the QB or coverage in their secondary.

quote:
They held FSU to 105 yards of offense before they threw in the scrubs late in the third quarter, and the offense scored on six of their first seven drives.
They kept Johnson in until the final 2 minutes and Zabranksy in the whole game. Not exactly throwing in the scrubs. And were the scrubs on the field for that kickoff return?

I'm not knocking BSU as a team, but it's not like they're gods among college football players. They're good. Better than average, surely. They'd perform well in almost any conference, absolutely. They have good athletes and quality players.

But they're not deserving of a BCS bowl bid supposedly set aside for the best 10 teams in the country. There's a reason the top 11 BCS teams have ratings of .700 or better and BSU has only a .476.

They would certainly do well against the bottom halves of the BCS conferences, and maybe win 50% of its games against the better teams of the major conferences, leaving them with 2-3 losses (or possibly 4) if they were a BCS team.

They would likely still be ranked (though much lower), they'd still get national television coverage, and they'd still win most of their games. They would not, however, be in the BCS bowl games. They need their non-BCS standing and rules loophole to accomplish that.

So, in summary: Boise St is good, but not BCS worthy. Johnson is good, but not Heisman worthy.

[ November 02, 2006, 11:02 AM: Message edited by: FlyingCow ]

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FlyingCow
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Frisco, not sure what numbers you're looking at for Oregon State's defense. [Confused] And they're not in the ACC.

Here are the NCAA I-A statistics.

Edit: My mistake! [Eek!] I was looking at Oregon! Will adjust numbers above! [Blushing]

That gives him a bit more respectability, but still not anywhere near Heisman-level respectability.

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El JT de Spang
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quote:
El JT, I'm not saying he's a bad player, just that 20 touchdowns against bad teams isn't much better than 14 touchdowns against good teams.
This isn't what you said. And I'm not even going to ask how you manage to normalize the TDs scored against bad teams vs. good teams.

Do you think that most backs score most of their TDs against the best teams on their schedules?

There's much more parity in college football than you seem to realize. The difference between Fresno St's D and, say, Ohio State's boils down to OSU's bottom 3-4 are better than their F.S. counterparts, OSU has much better schemes, and (most importantly) are playing with much more confidence. Take the 3 best players on any IA team in the country, and chances are they could start for most any other team, or at least have a chance to. The difference between the haves and the have nots is largely depth, coaching, and confidence (which is precisely how a doormat such as Rutgers is able to follow a series of mediocre seasons with an okay one, then follow that with a great one).

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Frisco
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quote:
5 TDs v. Oregon St (94th rush defense)
I'm not sure what stats you're looking at, but OSU is 20th in the country against the run. (your edit is noted)

quote:
They kept Johnson in until the final 2 minutes and Zabranksy in the whole game. Not exactly throwing in the scrubs. And were the scrubs on the field for that kickoff return?
When I'm talking about them only giving up only 105 yards to FSU, I'm clearly talking about defense. Johnson and Zabransky are offensive players. The defensive backups are to blame for the blown coverage and FSU's only offensive touchdown.

quote:
My mistake on the score - in my original hatrack-eaten recap, I'm sure I had that TD in the first quarter, but my memory somehow jumped it to the second... probably because of the quality of play there had been for the first 14 minutes.
BSU sustained a 72 yard drive in the last 4 minutes of the first quarter, resulting in a touchdown. Maybe you mean the first 11 minutes?

quote:
LSU didn't let Fresno score 21 points - in fact, they didn't allow a single touchdown, backup players or not. There weren't any points put up by Fresno in the 4th quarter, and only a field goal each in the second and third quarters. There also weren't any kickoff return touchdowns for 93 yards.
And they also didn't put up 45 points with an opportunity for more. Offense and defense both count towards the final score. And LSU even had a bigger home-field advantage. FSU is pretty used to coming to Boise, and as you pointed out, it's not exactly an intimidating stadium. LSU on the other hand?

quote:
Recently. This year, BSU would finish behind L'ville, WVU, and likely Rutgers - and possibly post a loss against Pitt and Cincy. I'm not saying BSU is bad, just that they haven't earned a BCS bid. 10-2 and 9-3 are both very good records, and BSU is a good team, but the way they're sneaking into the BCS ahead of better teams rubs me the wrong way.
Except this year, I think BSU beats Rutgers easily, and either WVU or Louisville, if not both. You're clearly of the opposite opinion, but I've watched all three Big East unbeatens, and they're all terribly overranked, IMO. Maybe the Big East should offer an invitation. [Razz] I mean, Marquette's in freaking Wisconsin, right?

And how do you feel about the Big East in past years sneaking in ahead of better schools because of their automatic bid? Or this year's ACC, who'll likely put in a team outside the top 12?

Really, the BCS isn't flawless. And it's not there just so the top 10 teams can square off. The system ensures that the top 2 play, so there's a clear champion...aside from that, it's a mix of Notre Dame, the Good Ol' Boys network of the big 6 conferences, and the occasional spattering of the rest of the conferences.

Would a Tennessee-Texas or a Wisconsin-Texas mathup really be that much more entertaining to you? At least now the networks will have the Cinderella story to play up.

quote:
I'm not knocking BSU as a team, but it's not like they're gods among college football players. They're good. Better than average, surely. They'd perform well in almost any conference, absolutely. They have good athletes and quality players.
In a big conference, they'd be even better. More money, more scholarships, more recruiting power...

quote:
But they're not deserving of a BCS bowl bid supposedly set aside for the best 10 teams in the country. There's a reason the top 11 BCS teams have .700 or better and BSU has .476.
But they're not set aside for the top 10 teams. They're set aside for the conference champs of the Pac-10, SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and Big East, regardless of their ranking. Why should BSU have to fit some criteria that not everyone else is subject to? Pitt was #21 a couple years back. BC is currently #15. The Big 12 and ACC could still possibly send unranked teams to the BCS this year.

quote:
So, in summary: Boise St is good, but not BCS worthy. Johnson is good, but not Heisman worthy.
I agree with you on Johnson, but we're going to have to agree to disagree about BSU. If they get blown out by Texas, I'll concede they merely played a "loophole". But if they win, I'll have no more of your mouth running. [Razz]

Past BCS bowl participants not in the top 8 (since there were only 4 BCS bowls prior to this year):

1998:
#9 Wisconsin
#11 Texas Tech
#15 Syracuse

1999:
#9 Michigan
Unranked Stanford

2000:
#11 Notre Dame
#14 Purdue

2001:
#10 Maryland
#13 LSU

2002:
#14 Florida State

2003:
#10 Miami
#15 Kansas State

2004:
#13 Michigan
#21 Pittsburgh

2005:
#11 West Virginia
#22 Florida State

edit: And keep in mind that this was all before they expanded the BSC series to 5 bowls. So, by your theory, only the top 8 should've made these games. But I'm too lazy to go back again to see who wasn't in the top 8. [Razz]

edit: no, I'm not.

[ November 02, 2006, 12:30 PM: Message edited by: Frisco ]

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Frisco
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quote:
and confidence (which is precisely how a doormat such as Rutgers is able to follow a series of mediocre seasons with an okay one, then follow that with a great one).
I was thinking about this last night. Fresno State was 14-1 in their previous 15 games going into their match with USC last year. Since losing that nailbiter by a touchdown, they've gone 1-12! [Eek!]
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El JT de Spang
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Going along confidence is momentum, which is huge in football. It's really freaking nebulous, and it's about as predictable as craps (giant swings of fortune with zero warning). It can swing a series, a game, or a whole season and no one watching will have a clue why.

It's the whole reason for the expression, "that's why they play the games."

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FlyingCow
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You're right, El JT, I said it wasn't anything to be proud of. That's not true - it *is* something to be proud of. But a Heisman candidate needs to have more than just a lot of touchdowns off of weak opponents.

Do I think Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, or Ian Johnson should even be in Heisman consideration? No way. They're all very good, all comparable with one another in terms of stats, and none have really faced very challenging teams. On top of that, they're all sophomores.

Johnson's a good back - but not clearly better than other good backs in the country.

quote:
Do you think that most backs score most of their TDs against the best teams on their schedules?
No, but for a sophomore to win the Heisman as a running back, he needs to blow away all other running backs in the country and put up big numbers against big competition. He's good, but he's not Heisman good.

If he goes wild in the bowl game against Texas for 200+ yards and 3 TDs, and then goes wild again next year, he'll have made his case for a Hiesman as a Junior.

quote:
There's much more parity in college football than you seem to realize.
Any given Saturday - I get that.

But there is far less parity between the top teams and the bottom teams than there is between any two teams ranked within 40 or so places of each other.

I mean, La Tech gives up 243 rushing yards and 220 passing yards per game... compared to Florida's 67 rushing yards and 153 passing yards per game.

Florida's defense is just better all around, all talk of parity aside.

If you have the 118th ranked defense in the country, you can't have a lot of depth, confidence, or defensive schemes backing you up - to use your indicators. And success breeds success, as you start getting better recruits.

quote:
Past BCS bowl participants not in the top 10:
I get that. But who did they beat to get there? Who did BSU beat to get there?

You can graduate with a 4.0 after taking mostly remedial classes, or you can graduate with a 3.4 after taking a few honors classes. It just really seems that BSU has done its best to avoid all challenges in getting its check to the bank.

quote:
If they get blown out by Texas, I'll concede they merely played a "loophole". But if they win, I'll have no more of your mouth running.
In an totally chaotic world, WVU will lose causing a scramble for which one loss team will be in the championship, that one loss team will get blown out by Ohio St causing all kinds of second guessing about why *that* one loss team was taken, BSU will get blown out, and the ACC champion will get obliterated too, throwing the whole BCS concept out the window.

The best that could be hoped for? WVU goes to the National Championship and defeats Ohio St (giving the Big East more legitimacy), BSU obliterates Texas in the Fiesta Bowl (granting the WAC some legitimacy), and the ACC champion beats up on their competition (returning some of the ACC's legitimacy). In the aftermath, maybe the Big East and BSU will schedule some tougher OOC games.

Time will tell what we get - but whatever happens, it sure will be fun to watch. [Big Grin] If BSU hangs close with Texas (win or no), they'll get a lot more respect from me. If they win, that would be great for them - and would hopefully give their conference a kick in the butt.

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El JT de Spang
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quote:
Do I think Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, or Ian Johnson should even be in Heisman consideration? No way. They're all very good, all comparable with one another in terms of stats, and none have really faced very challenging teams. On top of that, they're all sophomores.
Agreed, with the caveat that I don't think what year they are should have even the faintest whisper to do with Heisman consideration. But then, I mostly consider the Heisman a sham (as well as the NFL MVP, for similar reasons).
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Frisco
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quote:
I get that. But who did they beat to get there?
Judging by the fairly reliable rankings, nobody better than the people ranked ahead of them did.

Do you mean to imply, contrary to your insistence that BSU is taking a bid from a better team and that the BCS is for top 10 teams, that it doesn't matter who they put in the BCS or who they pass over as long as they've beaten a top 25 team?

Make up your mind, man!

BSU hasn't beat anyone in the top 25 yet, but they've beaten two teams in the top 37. [Smile] One will probably end the season ranked, but not both, probably, since they play each other.

quote:
In an totally chaotic world, WVU will lose causing a scramble for which one loss team will be in the championship,
It wouldn't be totally chaotic, since they're not even favored. And with a Louisville win, it's possible, if not probable, that they'd jump to #2 and play for the NC.
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FlyingCow
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quote:
Make up your mind, man!
What I mean is that in order to win their conference, they had to play well against some strong competition. In the case of Florida St in 2005, they beat #5 Virginia Tech, #9 Miami, and #19 Florida to win their conference championship.

In comparison, BSU hasn't beaten anyone of real significance except Oregon State - unranked David to USC's goliath.

Granted, there are other teams on your list that shouldn't have been there (namely any Big East team in 2004 or 2005) which is one of the reasons I've never really liked the BCS system.

quote:
I don't think what year they are should have even the faintest whisper to do with Heisman consideration.
Just saying that no sophomore in the history of the trophy has won it. It seems Heisman voters prefer to give the trophy to someone they assume will go very early in the NFL the following year, not someone who will come back and have the chance to win it again.

quote:
It wouldn't be totally chaotic, since they're not even favored.
True. I worded that badly - I meant the chaos that would erupt if there is no undefeated Big East team (I'm assuming WVU pulls it out at L'ville). A handful of one-loss teams all clamoring at the National Championship door, all feeling they have more of a right to go than the next one-loss team.

quote:
Except this year, I think BSU beats Rutgers easily, and either WVU or Louisville, if not both. You're clearly of the opposite opinion, but I've watched all three Big East unbeatens, and they're all terribly overranked, IMO. Maybe the Big East should offer an invitation. I mean, Marquette's in freaking Wisconsin, right?
I don't know how easily BSU beats Rutgers this year. I'd love to watch it though - high powered offense vs. stingy defense. I definitely think that White/Slaton is a better combo than Zabranksy/Johnson, and I think WVU has a better defense than BSU. As for L'ville, the loss of Bush hurts them a lot, and Brohm still isn't 100% - though their defense is again a lot better than what BSU is used to.

I'd love to see the matchups. Maybe Boise St. can join the Big East? [Big Grin]

quote:
Would a Tennessee-Texas or a Wisconsin-Texas mathup really be that much more entertaining to you? At least now the networks will have the Cinderella story to play up.
It's funny, though, that BSU is still getting very little press. You can't open a newspaper or turn on ESPN without hearing something about Rutgers - and they're almost certain to lose two, if not three games this year. BSU is going to win out (most likely) and searches on google news yield next to nothing about it.

Pretty crazy. You'd figure the Cinderella hype would have started already.

As for Rutgers, I'm not hopeful. Then again, I graduated in 2000, seeing a grand total of 8 wins in my four years as an undergrad (including a 5-6 season!). The team is not as good as the press is making out, and, quite honestly, have the possibility of not winning another game.

I mean, they'll probably lose to Louisville. The could fall to Cincy's defense (though Cincy doesn't have an offense to speak of). There's a slim, slim chance they could lose to Cuse. And they'll probably lose to WVU. Even so, 9-3 is cause for celebration at Rutgers - hell, 8 wins is more than we've had in two decades, and there's a decent chance we could go 10-2.

If Schiano stays long term, we could be the ones fighting for national titles in a couple years. [Big Grin]

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B34N
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Got a question? What happens if Louisville beat West Virginia tonight? Does Texas move into 3rd or does Louisville jump them and move into number three since they beat them. This depending on a Texas win this weekend.

** Edited to make sure everyone knew I was talking about top 25 not BCS standings **

[ November 05, 2006, 04:39 PM: Message edited by: B34N ]

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Ecthalion
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louisvill will probably jump to third. If louisville doesnt texas wont jump auburn or UF until this weekend at least. All the one loss teams need whoever wins the WVU/Louis game to lose to rutgers, or possibly pitt. That is really what will cause the comottoin. Most of the voters will vote for a team with no losses over teams with one loss even if the team's schedule isnt worth looking at.
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Ecthalion
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Rut and BSU will be the exception of tha ti think. They will not get ranked that high even if they do win out.
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Ecthalion
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just as a fyi update. Louisville is pretty much making WVU eat the turf
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Ecthalion
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WVU has started to go blow-to-blow with louis again, after letting them jump out to that big lead.
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Ecthalion
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i dunno about anyone else whos watching this game but there is something that just jumps out at you about these two teams. Their defences are horrible. Their "good" offences may not be anywhere near as good as anyone thinks they are simply because they havent faced defences that can do anything, including each other's. There are plays all game that go for 20+ yards. They are both missing tackles. Multiple tackles.... Blown coverage all over the place. Louisville is admitedly the better team in this contest. But i see rutgers giving them trouble down the road.
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Ecthalion
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well hand it to wvu for getting the last 2 stops they needed (although it was because Louis wanted to run time out) but you can pretty much give it to louisville with less than a minute and 10 point lead. Although if Louis wanted to keep hope for a NC chance they should have kept scoring. Allowing this game to get close will only favor one-loss teams.
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Frisco
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I think Louisville's chances for a shot at the NC are pretty good, despite the fact that they don't play any defense to speak of.

Troy Smith is going to feast on the Cardinals.

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FlyingCow
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I learned a few things about the two teams last night.

-First off, Louisville is a good team, while WVU just has a good group of players.

If you take WVU's best two players out of the lineup (White and Slaton), they'd collapse. It showed just how much they need Slaton when he was out with an injury for much of the third quarter - and if White wasn't there, they'd have had no shot at all.

By contrast, Louisville lost star running back Michael Bush and star QB Brian Brohm at the start of the season, and stayed solid. Now that Brohm is back, they're only better.

- Another thing I noticed is that both teams are very sloppy. All the fumbles, dropped passes, tripping on the turf in the open field... the game was not as close as the score indicated, for sure.

From what my girlfriend tells me (she's studying to be an Occupational Therapist), the way the trainers were rehabbing Slaton looked as though his pinky and ring fingers on his left hand were somehow affected - which are the two fingers that provide grip strength. It's possible he was trying to play through it, but couldn't hold onto the ball well - and came out after it was obvious (the two fumbles).

- As far as Rutgers' chances, we match up better against WVU than against Louisville, but both will be hugely challenging games.

If we can harrass Brohm like we managed to do to Palko, we might have a chance against Louisville. However, Louisville has a lot better O-Line than Pitt did, and a 6'6" receiver in Uruttia that we'll have trouble with. Beyond that, our offense still isn't clicking and Rice isn't 100%. We need our freshmen and sophomore WRs to catch passes to keep Louisville's defense from packing the box.

As far as WVU, I think we can limit Slaton and White, but again our offense has to start producing. We've been strong on the road lately, but it will still be a challenging environment. We'll see.

I mean, we have some great talent on offense. Ray Rice is one of the top running backs in the country, Brian Leonard is considered one of the best fullback/all-around back in the country, and Clark Harris has been talked about as the best tight end. Beyond that, we have a crew of young, but talented receivers and a young, but talented QB. The pieces of the puzzle haven't yet come together completely, yet - mainly through lack of experience. Hopefully it will click by next Thursday. :fingers crossed:

- As far as Rutgers and the NC, even if we win out I don't think it will happen. We'd probably end up #2 in every computer, but there's no way we'd be ranked second in the Coaches or Harris polls to come out #2 in the BCS overall. Maybe if we brutally outplay both Louisville and WVU, but I don't think that will happen either.

I'm just happy for a good bowl bid, having any BCS bid at all would be cause for huge celebration. The NC just isn't really on the radar.

- The defense showed promise at times (three goal line stands by WVU) and was just terrible mostly (WVU's nonexistant pass defense, UofL's nonexistant run defense). That Louisville couldn't stop the run at all is good news for Rutgers, but if we can't keep them honest in the air it won't matter because they'll put 8 in the box every play.

Overall, neither defense was very good in the long haul. 1008 yards of total offense? 46 total first downs? 78 total points? , I mean, there were only 5 punts! Yeesh. It seems Rutgers and Cincy got the Big East's defense, and WVU and Louisville got the offense.

- Can't wait until next Thursday. [Big Grin]

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El JT de Spang
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Louisville's O-line did an excellent job protecting Brohm. Unless Rutgers D is much better than I think they are, I don't give them much chance at harassing him.

I expect Louisville to win out, and WVU to do the same.

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FlyingCow
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I expect that, too. [Frown]

Rutgers D is very good - mainly because of Schiano. He has worked as a defensive assistant/coordinator at Penn State, the Chicago Bears, and Miami during years when those defenses were very highly regarded. He knows a few things, and has players that will do anything he asks them to do. It's the only reason our defense has been as good as it is.

They weren't the most highly recruited bunch, but they play good team defense, and believe in doing their 1/11th and not overextending themselves (opening gaps). I'm far more worried about whether our pass defense can handle Louisville's receivers than whether we can bring pressure. The pressure will come - it's just when Brohm throws out of it, can we stop the receptions.

Sacks I don't know about, but he'll definitely be hurried and have to change his rythym - it's just whether that will be enough. [Dont Know]

Edit to add: If we can get recruits like Anthony Davis to commit, the future will definitely look even brighter.

[ November 03, 2006, 10:41 AM: Message edited by: FlyingCow ]

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Ecthalion
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Rut and Pitt have more ability to pressure the QB than WVU did. They are obviously the trap games for louisville.

If rut went undefeated i dont think the computer would give them #2. The Ap poll might, but i think most 1 loss teams have an advantage at this point.

That being said Louisville can still not be #2 if they go undefeated. Uf has a good shot if they win big over 3 of the next 4 opponants. Of course the SEC TG could end that fast, but style points always count.

Im still skeptical about OSU and Mich not making it tho. Especially if Mich pulls it out by a small score.

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FlyingCow
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Well, after this weekend, I'm definitely starting to agree that BSU deserves a BCS bid more than the ACC champion. It seems whenever one of their teams starts to rise in the rankings, they lose. They now have six teams ranked between 18-26 - none of them can seem to pull away from the pack.

That pretty much gives BSU a lock, because they will definitely be ranked higher than the ACC champion, unless they should lose a game this season.

Michigan and Ohio St. both showed some weakness this weekend, too, as Ball St. and Illinois sprung upset bids that fell short. Ball St, who has lost to western michigan, central michigan, and northern illinois... and Illinois, who got blanked by Rutgers 33-0. Crazy.

Totally looking forward to next Thursday. [Smile]

[ November 05, 2006, 04:29 PM: Message edited by: FlyingCow ]

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Ecthalion
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Strangely enough, looking at the BSC standings now, it looks as if Tex is going to probably jump Louis and UF. Lville didnt play really good defence on WVU and has to play some pretty stiff opponants.

Tex only has to play A&M and probably Nebraska again in the Big 12 TG. UF will drop if Ark wins out, even if they beat Ark in the SEC TG it would probably drop LSU and Tenn out of respectable win rank. Not to mention that FSU looks like Lee might bring some life to it, and any spurrier team is one to worry about.

Whew... so much tension for this season. At least we wont have one of those "shared NC" this year.

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Frisco
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So now WVU is 2-1 vs. teams with winning records--wins at East Carolina and over #23 Maryland and a sloppy loss at #3 Louisville.

This is good enough for #10 in the country, apparently.

BSU, on the other hand, is 3-0 vs. winning teams with victories over #24 Oregon State, #29 Hawaii, and Utah.

#14 worthy.

Wha? Why can't the poll voters admit what the computers have been telling us all season--that West Virginia is grossly overrated.

I can mostly accept #9 Notre Dame being ahead of BSU. Even though they only squeaked by #18 GT and got whooped by #2 Michigan, they've at least beat Purdue and Penn State, both 6-4.

#12 LSU played #6 Auburn tough in a 7-3 loss, and beat #16 Tennessee in Knoxville. And even though that Tennessee win is their only one over a team over .500, I give teams in the SEC a little leeway, especially when they play such awesome defense. But if they don't play impressively next week at home vs. Alabama, they're gonna lose that leeway. I can accept them ahead of BSU for now.

And I can even sorta accept Rutgers being #13, because even though they haven't played an opponent in the top 35, their wins over Ohio, Navy, South Florida, and Pitt (all winning records) combined with their better computer score make me believe that they're not as overrated as the rest of the country (outside NJ [Razz] ) seems to think.

But WV at #10?! Come on, voters.

My Top 15 predictions for the coming weekend:

Ohio St. 44 Northwestern 6
Michigan 31 Indiana 13
Louisville 38 Rutgers 28
Florida 35 S. Carolina 21
Texas 34 Kansas St.20
Auburn 30 Georgia 28
Oregon 30 USC 27
Cal 44 Arizona 20
Air Force 38 Notre Dame 35
Cincinnati 28 WVU 24
Arkansas 30 Tennessee 27
LSU 38 Alabama 17
Boise State 49 San Jose St. 14
Wisconsin 24 Iowa 14

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Mig
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I'm excited for this weekend. Florida State v. Wake Forest. Can't belive I'm excited about a Wake game. Florida State is starting Xavier Lee again. He wasn't spectacular against Virginia this weekend, but he's shown some flashes of brilliance in his two starts. Our defense is getting stronger each game. With the number of freshman we're playing this year playing as well as they are, this is going to be a brutal defense next year.

I've been looking at bowl predictions and I have a question. Miami is 5 and 4, but one of their victories is against 1-AA Florida A&M. I don't think that victory counts for bowl eligibility. Am I wrong? Miami has three games left (Maryland, Virginia, and Boston College). I can see them pulling out one of those games (maybe UVA) but not two.(QB Wright has an injured thumb and may not play this weekend against Maryland, not that he'd be much help to the Canes.)
Which means that if I'm right, Miami doesn't get a bowl. Don't know why that makes me so giddy? [Roll Eyes]

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Frisco
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One victory against a I-AA team is counted towards a team's bowl eligibility, but no more than that.

The ACC has ties to 8 bowls, so Miami is most likely going to a bowl. Sorry.

ACC bowl tie-ins:

BCS
Champs Sports
Peach
Emerald
Music City
Meineke Car Care
MPC Computers
Gator

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FlyingCow
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WVU is benefiting from perceptions - mainly perceptions of two games last year (Georgia and Louisville) and perceptions of the numbers their two star playmakers can put up (Slaton and White).

BSU and RU are hurt by perceptions - mainly that they haven't beaten anyone worthwhile in years.

Honestly, other than their preseason perceptions, there was no reason why L'ville and WVU were ranked ahead of Rutgers all season - seeing as Rutgers actually had a tougher strength of schedule through the first six weeks.

The Big East (to a far lesser extent) suffers the same perception problems as the WAC - they're not proven, so they can't be good. And, quite honestly, I think that's fair. With some good bowl showings this year, and continued OOC success next year, the Big East will start to prove itself more and more and wins against Cincy, Pitt, and USF will start to be perceived as more worthwhile.

If BSU and Hawaii can totally smack around their bowl opponents, and the WAC can start winning OOC games, they'll start to approach the (low) level of respect the Big East enjoys now.

As a Rutgers fan I shouldn't be saying this, but one year does not make a team. WVU and Louisville were good last year, and so they get more respect this year.

If Louisville goes 12-0 in the Big East, they'll likely play for the NC. If Rutgers goes 12-0 in the same Big East (with a comparable OOC schedule), they likely won't. Just because of Louisville's preseason perceptions and ranking.

Next year, if Rutgers goes 12-0 (which it almost definitely won't), RU will start the year in the Top 25, and we'll see how they go from there.

(As an aside about team confidence - Georgia was 20-4 (12-4 in conference) the day before the WVU bowl game last year, and is 6-5 since that day (3-4 in conference). Pretty crazy.)

Edit to Frisco: I think your prediction for the RU v. L'ville game is too high. I'd go more 28-17 or 28-20. I just don't think the total score will top 50 points.

Still, I'm hopeful that we can pressure Brohm enough and get Rice/Leonard free enough to pull out the W.

:fingers crossed:

(oh, and Air Force won't beat Notre Dame, nor will Cincy score that many points in a game against a I-A opponent this season)

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El JT de Spang
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Anytime I wonder about rankings that are close, I just imagine which team I'd favor on a neutral field were they to play next week.

I'd take LSU over the whole lot of 'em ('em being the teams Frisco mentioned). BSU and L'ville is a push, and I think BSU would also beat WVU. I don't know enough about Rutgers to make a prediction, but I think they'd lose to all of the other teams I mentioned above.

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FlyingCow
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quote:
I don't know enough about Rutgers to make a prediction, but I think they'd lose to all of the other teams I mentioned above.
[ROFL]

Then how can you make a prediction? It's like saying you don't know enough about physics to make a prediction, but you think we'll have faster than light travel in our lifetimes. The first part of your sentence cancels out the second.

Edit to add: This is probably how the polls work more often than not.

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Frisco
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quote:
Edit to Frisco: I think your prediction for the RU v. L'ville game is too high. I'd go more 28-17 or 28-20. I just don't think the total score will top 50 points.
I have three top 10 teams getting upset--two by unranked opponents--and that's your big beef? [Razz]

I'm just not so sure that Rutgers is going to be able to stop Louisville's 39-points-a-game offense so much as they're going to end up being forced to play Louisville's game--a shootout.

But they have fewer bullets.

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FlyingCow
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We totally have fewer bullets. In fact, I think a few of the bullets are rubber... though maybe we can hit them in the eye with one of those. [Big Grin]

In all seriousness, though, I also don't think we can stop their offense - though I'm pretty sure we can slow it down. They average 39 points against far weaker defenses than RU. I'm thinking they'll probably post in the 24-28 range (then again, I figured Navy and Pitt would, too [Dont Know] ).

I don't think we can score enough points to top that, though, unless our offense finally gels - which it has had trouble doing.

Also, you missed the edit to my parenthetical that included two other issues with your predictions. [Razz]

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El JT de Spang
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quote:
Then how can you make a prediction?
By saying "I think". That was probably poorly worded. What I mean was that I feel confident about the 'predictions', and the fact that they're all better than Rutgers is just a guess, since I haven't seen Rutgers play this year.

I'm not sure how that was rofl!! funny, though.

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Frisco
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quote:
(oh, and Air Force won't beat Notre Dame,
Oh, so you noticed that prediction. [Razz]

Notre Dame's rush defense is 45th in the country, and Air Force pounds the ball on the ground 267 yards/game.

The Irish will be relaxed after an easy week against North Carolina, and they'll be playing in Colorado against a team still high off crushing rival Army and needing two more wins this season to be bowl eligible.

And this is Notre Dame's first non-nationally televised game since 1992.

quote:
nor will Cincy score that many points in a game against a I-A opponent this season)
Did you see WV play defense last week?

Neither did I.

Plus, WVU is having a major bout of NC depression, I'll bet. Knowing they don't control their own destiny as far as even the conference championship goes and being all but totally out of the NC picture, I wouldn't be surprised if they come out of the gate a lot more sluggish than usual. And with their defense, that's tough to do.

Cincinnati's rush defense is decent--15th in the country (playing a much tougher schedule than WVs #14 rush defense)--and everything depends on Slanton and White being mature enough to bounce back and find a reason to win now that "undefeated or bust" is but a memory.

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FlyingCow
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El JT, it just struck my funny bone, is all. [Big Grin] The "I don't know enough to predict, so I predict..." nature of it. Hopefully the game Thursday will be a good showing for RU, and you'll get to see why people have been speaking so highly of them.

Frisco, Cincy has a very good defense - one I'm pretty damn worried about when RU faces them in Cincinatti. They just don't have any offense to speak of. I'm not saying they won't beat WVU (they very well might - they're a hell of a sleeper threat in the Big East), I just don't think they'll score 28 points.

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Mig
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quote:
Originally posted by Frisco:
One victory against a I-AA team is counted towards a team's bowl eligibility, but no more than that.

The ACC has ties to 8 bowls, so Miami is most likely going to a bowl. Sorry.

Darn! Every cloud has a silver lining: There's still joy in watching them lose in a bowl, like last years beating by LSU.

I think that the Rutgers Louisville game will be a good one. I pick Louisville, but that's a safe pick. I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers pulled it out.

As for a match-up between Louisville and winner of the OSU/Mich. game in a NC game, I don't think eiher team has seen a offense as well coached and talented as Louisville. However, the best defensive team Louisville has faced all year was Miami, and they would have lost that one if Miami had any life on offense. That said Louisville should be given a shot at the title if they win out. Fairness should dictate that the same should be true for Rutgers, but I just can't bring myself to pick them.

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Mig
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Let me add that I'm picking Michigan to beat OSU.
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FlyingCow
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I could definitely see Michigan beating OSU.

I mean, if Illinois' defense held OSU in check, what will Michigan's defense do? Then again, Ball St took Michigan's vaunted defense for a ride, so what would OSU's offense do?

I'd like to see a double-overtime Michigan victory, but that's just me. [Big Grin]

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Frisco
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quote:
I think your prediction for the RU v. L'ville game is too high. I'd go more 28-17 or 28-20. I just don't think the total score will top 50 points.
Well, you're only two field goals away (25-14) on your prediction.

If only it weren't the second quarter. [Razz]

[ November 09, 2006, 09:43 PM: Message edited by: Frisco ]

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Frisco
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Maybe I spoke too soon! Louisville doesn't seem to know what to do against an above average defense this half.

It'll be over 50, obviously, but I'm impressed that Rutgers has held Louisville to only 25 points so far.

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Mig
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Rutgers. Wow. What a great game. Put them in the top five or the BCS poll system has no meaning.
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dab
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top 5 is a BIG jump... congrats to Rutgers, but I would be surprised to see them in the top 5... I would bet that they move up to 7th... If they beat WV then they will move higher...
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Frisco
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Not gonna happen. Not that they don't deserve it, but rarely does an upset propel a team 9 spots this late in the season.

I do think they'll jump to #10, though. #7 at the very highest, if the computers put them at #3 .

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