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Iran already has intermediate range ballistic missiles. Hitting anywhere in the Middle East is already an option. The are tested, we know they work.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Their is little doubt that Iran desires to make an ICBM, however even with Russian's building them for them and offering the ICBM scholarship program to every Iranian who wants to be a rocket scientist they are years from that capability. The Shahab 3's are a bit payload light for a heavy bomb, they need a next generation missile and a good bomb.
But my posture is based on what could be in place today, not three years from now or ten. A Russian warhead is not likely to be much more difficult to import then thirty tons of high carbon steel. The truth is we do not know how compact a device the Russian's inherited from the Soviet's but one would buy a lot of oil and good will.
I consider the smuggled bomb through Hezbolla to be the "It could happen today" possibility, probabilities will change as time passes.
Russia has all but declared itself as our enemy again, while China is cracking down on its aid. I think we need to watch the Russian/Iranian trade very close and estimate the threat based on what we see.
Posts: 231 | Registered: Feb 2007
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