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While looking up old links to reBookmark, came across an interesting blog about factors to be considered inregard to the strength of future hurricane seasons.
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A podcast of a FreshAir interview with MIT meteorologist KerryEmanuel, named one of the world's 100 most influential people last year by Time magazine.
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I forgot to even look and we're already up to Chantal. I wonder if we'll have another active season this year. Any thoughts?
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Well, 2005 was really amazingly bad, and a lot of folks said it was just be beginning of a ramp up that would end in, uh, what's that disaster movie with Dennis Quaid? Day after Tomorrow?
It has been a relatively cool summer on the Chesapeake.
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That was a great podcast, by the way. I love Fresh Air. I wish she would interview more scientists and take more interest in science.
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Reuters is reporting today (dateline Aug 3) that the Colorado State forecasting team is reducing its forecast, citing cooler than expected water temperatures.
I expect a quiet year, similar to last year. Last year we had ten storms (made it to Isaac, including one unnamed storm). click here for NHC's review of 2006. None made landfall at hurricane strength, and I pray we will have a similar story for 2007. Hurricanes are fascinating things to watch when they spin and chase fish in the ocean, but I don't want to see life and property damaged by them.
Now it's August, and yes, this is when things really pick up, and we're ahead of schedule, but not by much. We normally hit our third named tropical storm in the Atlantic by Aug 12, according to the NHC, and Chantal was named on what, July 31? So we're only about two weeks ahead of schedule and with the downgrading in the forecast because temperatues weren't as high as expected, I'm optimistic.
The North Pacific, in contrast, is well below average in its activity so far this year.
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Southern states had better pray more than usual that it is in fact a lighter hurricane season. Insurers in many areas have refused to insure people at all, or are charging outlandish (though considering the risk, probably reasonable) rates for insurance. In the areas where private companies won't do it, the state governments are stepping in. Florida is the issuer on 17% (I think) of all insurance titles, and they haven't been doing it long enough to build up a reserve, so if those houses get flattened and the government of Florida has to replace all that damaged property, then the entire state of Florida will be financing the recovery efforts more directly than ever before, and it's going to suck something fierce.
Many other states are in a similar bind.
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Well, I can believe now that it will be worse than usual - we've had unbelievable heat the last week or so. This week they are predicting 100+ days.
The insurance thing is distressing for me. On the one hand, I think people who make a choice to live in disaster-prone areas should have to live with the consequences of choosing to live there - which includes hugely inflated insurance rates.
On the other hand, I know for many people they neither have the resources to leave the area they live in, or the desire to. I can appreciate that, I'm pretty attached to my home area as well.
*sigh*
I don't have any good answers.
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Maybe they can get a cheaper insurance that will provide them with a trailer if their house is flattened? It would also be livable quicker than waiting on a rebuild, particularly if there is extensive damage.
The problem with that is that trailer homes are much more prone to hurricane damage. Maybe a more hurricane proof prefab home could be devised, putting a steel exoskeleton around a trailer and anchoring it to a normal type of foundation. If we're talking fancy waterfront homes, they can pay the fancy waterfront insurance. I guess. I know there are a lot of people who bought their homes a long time ago, and replacement values are so high now. But I guess these cases should go with the prefabs. If I ran the zoo.
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Like Africa, the US imports so much more than it exports that shipping containers are piling up as garbage around all of its ports because it's cheaper to build new containers than to ship them back empty to their port of origin. Join a few shipping containers together, wrap in external insulation, put in windows and utilities, and nearly instant trailer homes MUCH stronger and MUCH less expensive than those currently being marketed.
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Well, Erin's just a depression now, so pfft! It's dark as night, but no biggie. Haven't heard about any flooding around here yet, but it'll be raining through Friday, so that could change. And Dean's a full hurricane now and may be headed our way. Here's hoping it fizzles out before it gets here.
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Perhaps aspectre can clue me in on this, but it seems weird to me that Dean is BEHIND Erin, yet according to the naming list, they would have named Dean first.
So was Dean actually on the radar earliest, it just took it so long to get here that Erin appear closer later?
*waiting for Erin to send some rain up my way*
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Farmgirl, storms are named when they reach tropical storm status, (winds of 39 mph to 73 mph) so Dean reached named status earlier, further out. Erin didn't reach named status until she strengthened, closer to making landfall.
Tropical depressions are not named, unless they were previously at least a tropical storm. So, if a tropical depression has a name, that's an indication that it was a storm that weakened.
I think I have that info right.
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aspectre, I'm not sure if you have PODS (Portable On Demand Storage), but they are now taking some of their 8'x'8'x16' storage containers and fitting them as temporary shelters.
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My issue with insurance is that is changed recently. When I bought my house, I didn't have a problem finding wind/storm insurance and then a few months ago, my insurance company informed me that they would not longer be covering hurricane damage. The only way to get that covered was through the state. Based on Katrina, one of my friends was thinking that insurance coverage really was not necessary, especially since she is poor.
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I think it might be because so many people were denied reimbursement by their insurance companies, but I'd like scholar to answer that.
It is different, though. People were denied because it was flood damage and not hurricane/storm damage that destroyed most of the homes.
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quote:Originally posted by Farmgirl: Maybe because everyone got financially reimbursed by the government???
Not everyone. And a whole lot of people who did ended up having the government ask for their money back.
I have a friend here who was paying her own way through school...working full-time and going to school full-time. The hurricane ate her car and the house she was living in. The house then burned down, destroying the rest of her worldly possessions. FEMA gave her $14,000 for rental assistance and compensation and all....a year later, they asked for all of the money back, saying they'd made a mistake and that she really didn't have that much damage. They told her that she could dispute it....but that she still had to make payments on the debt in the meantime. She had to drop out of school and is now working three jobs to pay back student loans and FEMA while being able to pay rent.
There are so many horror stories I've heard about the government asking for their disaster money back.
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We are in Houston, where it seems like people were constantly getting free stuff for being in katrina and rebuilds and stuff. I hadn't heard too many stories about giving money back. Even as late as two months ago, the news did a why aren't we doing more to help the katrina victims story. Not based on people having to pay back, but since the government was no paying their rent, how will they pay rent? In the end, my friend did end up getting insurance through the state, just like I did. We both also have and have always had flood insurance.
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The difference between flood and hurricane damage when you live near the coast has always seemed pretty stupid to me. It's the hurricane that causes the storm surge that floods your house, it's storm damage, it just so happened that your house was "flooded" with a hurricane. At that point what does storm protection really protect? Broken windows? But the difference in terminology saves insurance companies billions of dollars.
Personally I'd be pretty pissed if I paid insurance for years on my house and then one day my provider told me that the most important part of my insurnace was no longer there. I'd want my money back for all that time I'd paid, or at least, I'd want a huge reduction in my montly payment.
At any rate, if you live on the coast in a hurricane prone area and private insurance won't cover flood or storm damage, why bother with insurance at all when they still charge the same? My aunt and uncle have lived in Florida for decades, and just sold their house because my uncle had to come back to Detroit for a job, but the biggest reason they sold was because their montly insurance payment was more than their monthly mortgage payment. At that point, you have to wonder if it's worth it. I'd rather take my insurance payment and put it in the bank to earn interest. If my house is knocked down by a hurricane, I have a rebuilding fund. Yeah that's hyperbole but still, rates are outrageous, and the next couple years of states being the insurers on such a big scale are going to be very scary. They need time to build up a fund big enough to pay for all the damage that would be done before they pay out, otherwise it's going to be a big hurt. I don't have a problem with states being insurers though. I think their rates would actually be lower since they don't have to turn a profit like private companies do.
Belle - You're right on the naming of the storms.
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My understanding of the hurricane/flood insurance: If your roof gets ripped off, that is hurricane. But if the house fills with water, trashing all your stuff, that is flood.
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Yeah I get that, I just don't get why there's a distinction at all. Without the storm, neither of those things would have happened, so they are both still storm damage. Not covering non-hurricane flood damage I think would be a different thing, especially if you live in a flood plain near a river, but a hurricane can level a house, what's the point in making the distinction?
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I had to get a new cell phone yesterday. AT&T claimed that they wouldn't fix my RAZR, which had some unknown problem, since my two year service agreement had expired, so I would have to buy a new phone and get a new 2 year plan. Well that sounded like crap to me, but I had been thinking about getting a new phone anyway, so I didn't complain, I like AT&T and my bill is a lot cheaper than it was with Sprint, so I just looked around the store and after the guy tried to force a half dozen different phones on me, I settled on the Cingular SYNC (or Samsung A707). It's originally $300, but with the plan, it was $100, with a $50 rebate, so now it's only $50. That seemed like a deal to me (except I have to buy $50 worth of peripherals to fully utilize the phone because it doesn't come with anything, but whatever). But I saw at Best Buy and in an ad that if you are a NEW AT&T customer, the phone is free, you get that last $50 off. RETURNING customers have to pay the money. So I asked the guy at the store "So basically they punish loyal customers in an effort to steal customers away from rival companies?" To which he answered with an uneasy chuckle "Yeah pretty much." Talk about screwing the customer. Where's my loyalty reward? [/rant]
At least the phone is halfway decent.
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Well, I was being sarcastic. I was here for TS Allison. I know the flooding. Also, in the animation you linked, Galveston County was destroyed, but Houston was relatively untouched. Just a rising in the ship channel.
Also, it did end up flooding pretty bad yesterday for some people in this area. Luckily my neighborhood was fine. Here's hoping Dean fizzles out.
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Wow, Dean is looking like a buzz saw! The eye has formed up really well and it's moving quite fast. Forecasts are saying that it will hit Mexico rather than Texas, so assuming that's right, and assuming we care less about Mexico (why? I guess because we don't know people there (only we do)) then maybe Texas will be spared this time.
I'm worried about a FOAF in Antigua. Haven't heard from him yet since the storm passed by there, although it veered off to the south and wasn't a direct hit. Hopefully he only got tropical storm strength winds there.
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I always have to go look up the Saffir-Simpson scale, so here it is, straight from the NOAA pages, in case anyone else is interested.
quote:Category One Hurricane: Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.
Category Two Hurricane: Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.
Category Three Hurricane: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.
Category Four Hurricane: Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
Category Five Hurricane: Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.
Of all the things our government gets wrong, NOAA is one thing they get very right. So naturally they tried to disband it a year or two ago. =) Luckily they didn't.
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We are not evacuating this time, no matter what the forecast. We've got food and water for a week and keeping our cars full of gas. We are far enough in that we should be ok. Very glad we picked this house over our second choice. While not that far from where we live, that house is just inside a possible mandatory evacuation zone, while ours is a few miles outside.
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Cuz (I expected) the last plot of HurricaneDean was due west, and the current predicted line of travel is west-westnorthwest... ...my prediction is that Dean will next travel northwestward until it is directly west of GeorgeTown CaymanIslands.
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HurricaneDean will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche where the what-would-become-TropicalStormErin was first designated an Invest -- ie worth watching because of a strong possibility of becoming a TropicalDepression, a TropicalStorm, then a Hurricane -- after being first formed by Pacific moisture crossing northward through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
As many people in the US were killed by TropicalDepressionErin after landfall in Texas when it was downgraded from TropicalStorm as have been killed by HurricaneDean in the Caribbean before its landfall in Mexico.
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quote:Originally posted by aspectre: An excellent NASA photo blended with a NOAA photo showing the HurrricaneDean's relationship to the Gulf of Mexico. Click to see its relationship to Earth, then click again to enlarge.
I thought that was just shallower water there, Lyrhawn. Around some smaller islands. I believe different depths show up differently. (but that's just my guess from the way I viewed it)
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Cool. I knew the Caribbean was the shallowest sea, but I didn't realize it looked like that from space. Thanks for the info.
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Wow, Felix is now a cat 3. What did the poor folks on the Yucatan peninsula do to deserve this one-two punch?
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Felix is a Cat 4, heading into the open water of the Carribean they expect it's numbers to stay the same or climb, currently at sustained winds of 140mph.
Currently it looks like NOAA expect it to be a direct hit on Belize. But the actual path could be to the north or south of that point depending on the track it takes. The Yucatan likely won't get a direct hit, but with the sustained winds of the hurricane, it'll be near enough, especially on the heels of Dean (or was it Erin?).
Baja California looks to get hit head on by Tropical Storm Henriette on the opposite side of Mexico.
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