quote:Huckabee is clueless as to who he needs to apologize to.
Most importantly, he has no clue *why* he should apologize.
Well put. I have no clue how he's managing his PR (or, for that matter, who he hires to organize his PR), but they could use some getting fired forever. Some have come away from this thinking that Huckabee's a fay fay skeezier than he probably actually is. That's how badly he's managing this.
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posted
I don't know if MS-01 is the shape of things to come or not. I think it's even a more dangerous sign than the other two special elections that the Democrats have won, they are three for three in the offseason.
I think HOW the campaign was run and lost by the Republicans really matters. They did everything they could to attach the Democratic candidate to Obama and then smeared Obama like crazy. But it didn't work. That's very troubling for Republicans in the Fall, both in the Big Dance and in the downticket Congressional races.
All three of the offseason races were in heavily long held Republican districts.
Has anyone really been watching CNN or the main news channels in the last few days? Obama and McCain are front and center...Clinton is in the background. I think he's already in General mode, and Clinton is being phased out as unimportant. And to her credit, she has cut out the attacks, instead she's releasing positive policy oriented ads and she's defending Obama on television.
It's Obama and McCain now, and I think Obama has a lot more going for him than some people think. Still a long race though.
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Blayne Bradley
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i watched the tape, I've made worse cracks.
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If only he wasn't Canadian. I'm sure the Communist party would love to snap him up as a candidate.
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quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: It's Obama and McCain now, and I think Obama has a lot more going for him than some people think. Still a long race though.
Here's what I have in full of the situation so far: It is unprecedented. I am not certain that it's as bad as it looks, but this is pretty new for a person in my lifetime. It's practically soothsayer levels of doomsaying for the GOP. And — by all accounts — they act like they know it.
quote:National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) issued what can only be called a declaration of surrender. Here is Cole's statement, which I found simply amazing: “We are disappointed in tonight’s election results. Though the NRCC, RNC and Mississippi Republicans made a major effort to retain this seat, we came up short. ...
This whole statement is an admission by Cole that he does not now how House Republicans can win in November as a group, so each member better protect himself or herself. To his credit, Cole has been warning his members that they need to run as outsiders this fall, but beyond that general admonition, the Oklahoma Republican can't show them a path to victory. It's an extraordinary statement by the head of a national campaign committee, but it is not one that's going to inspire any warm feelings from his GOP colleagues.
quote:From NBC's Mike Viqueira Lots of very glum faces among House GOP members this morning as they emerged from their weekly closed-door session. The political situation is not good, and they aren't even trying to deny it.
Rep. Tom Davis stomped on the concrete floor of the Capitol basement when asked by reporters about Republican fortunes at the moment.
"This is the floor," he said, by way of explanation. "We're below the floor."
Inside the meeting, Davis had just presented his colleagues with what he said was a 20-page memo outlining his prescription for a way out of this mess. He did not offer details to the press, yet did not spare the party and the president scathing criticism in his public comments.
"The president swallows the microphone every time he opens his mouth," Davis said. ...
House GOP leaders huddle at 11 a.m. today. That will be watched closely for any possibility of a coup or insurrection against leadership in the wake of this third consecutive loss of a GOP seat.
Basically, according to dailykos, quote (I think?): this is an admission by Cole that he does not now how House Republicans can win in November as a group, so each member better protect himself or herself. To his credit, Cole has been warning his members that they need to run as outsiders this fall, but beyond that general admonition, the Oklahoma Republican can't show them a path to victory. It's an extraordinary statement by the head of a national campaign committee, but it is not one that's going to inspire any warm feelings from his GOP colleagues.
In addition, I think the next gerrymandering cycle is in two years. Assuming Obama wins the election, will be in the middle of a Democratic Party surge on both the state and the federal levels.
quote:IN MISSISSIPPI this week, the Republicans lost a congressional seat they held since 1994. This followed the loss of a congressional seat in Louisiana that they held since 1974. They lost both special elections after trying to cut and paste Barack Obama over the Democratic candidate. In a northern Mississippi district, Democrat Travis Childers won despite an attack ad that said, "When Obama's pastor cursed America, blaming us for 9-11, Childers said nothing. When Obama ridiculed rural folks for clinging to guns and religion, Childers said nothing. He took Obama over conservative values." In Louisiana, Baton Rouge-area Democrat Don Cazayoux won despite ads saying a vote for him was a vote for the "radical liberal agenda" of Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and asking, "Is Obama right for Louisiana?"
After following Childers on the campaign trail, then attending a rally of his Republican opponent, Greg Davis, it became apparent to me that the GOP's strategy would fail miserably. On Tuesday, the Republicans' worst nightmare came true: Childers defeated Davis by a stunning 8 point margin. Mississippi's First encompasses a working-class region reeling from the country's economic downturn. Voters there from both parties told me they were more concerned with bread and butter issues like gas and food prices than with whether Obama's supporters fundraised online for Childers, the issue exploited by the national GOP. Childers was the perfect candidate in this environment, running as a pro-life, pro-gun economic populist who opposed free trade and promised to take on big oil. I followed the candidate around a Piggly Wiggly supermarket, watching as he pointed shoppers to the whopping prices of milk and eggs, then indignantly blamed the White House for the price spike.
quote:May 16 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush is ``absolutely radioactive'' and Republicans will suffer widespread election losses in November unless they distance themselves from him, said Representative Tom Davis, a former leader of the party's House campaign committee. ``They've got to get some separation from the president,'' Davis, of Virginia, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's ``Political Capital with Al Hunt,'' scheduled to be aired today. Bush is the face of the party and congressional Republicans are ``seen as just in lockstep with him on everything,'' Davis said. Republicans would lose 20 to 25 House seats if the election were held today, Davis said. If Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, is seen by voters as ``Bush III'' he will lose by 20 percentage points, said Davis, who chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee from 1998 to 2002.
There's more about how the western republican committees are admitting hopelessness over the new 'westy dem' trend that's turning the west Democratic as inexorably as the south turned Republican, but I can't yet find it.
It's going to be a strange election, but as time goes on I'm rather confident that it will be predictable in a game theory way: the republican party is going down.
/edit — fixed some of the stranger linking errors.
posted
Also to note: every time I read "MS-01" I'm wondering if they're talking about an offshoot of the Mara Salvatrucha. hah.
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posted
i mean stalin was crazy so was mao but the original idea of communism giving the land to the people is cool
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quote:Originally posted by T:man: ok what be wrong with communists?
Look, I have no idea whether or not you are actually a 15 year old or if this is an elaborate ploy to act like one and play the hi-larious smurf game, but I am going to tell you that either way, step out and lurk more.Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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Blayne Bradley
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posted
quote:Originally posted by Samprimary:
quote:Originally posted by T:man: ok what be wrong with communists?
Look, I have no idea whether or not you are actually a 15 year old or if this is an elaborate ploy to act like one and play the hi-larious smurf game, but I am going to tell you that either way, step out and lurk more.
quote:Originally posted by Brian J. Hill: The problem is, I never actually agreed with this narrative. Sure, McCain got hammered in South Carolina with some innuendo and dirty tricks. But his campaigning has proved time and time again that he himself is not above the same smear tactics he claimed to be a victim of in 2000. He simply didn't have enough conservative support to beat Bush in 2000, and that's still his problem today. While I personally think his willingness to compromise in the name of actually getting things done is admirable, he's pissed off way too many Republicans over the years. It'll be interesting to see how he tries to regain their trust while retaining his appeal to more moderate voters.
Well, true, it certainly wasn't the smear campaign alone. But I think the "do whatever it takes to win" motto has a lot to do with his efforts to court the "conservative base" as well.
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quote:Has anyone really been watching CNN or the main news channels in the last few days? Obama and McCain are front and center...Clinton is in the background. I think he's already in General mode, and Clinton is being phased out as unimportant. And to her credit, she has cut out the attacks, instead she's releasing positive policy oriented ads and she's defending Obama on television.
If it stays that way I don't have any issue with this going till June. I wish she'd gone into that mode earlier, but oh well.
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Oh, please, Blayne. I mean, this guy is as bad, or worse, than you were when you started here. I think if you were to go back and look at some of your early posts, you'd be embarrassed as hell.
You've improved, and I bet T:Man can improve as well. But I don't regret my reactions to you, and I certainly don't regret my reactions to him.
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Blayne Bradley
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I'm pretty sure my earlier posts were more indictitive of OSC fanboyism then general open eyes immaturity.
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A web poll for the UO campus paper has twice as many people voting for Obama as Clinton... Certainly not representative of the state as a whole, but it certainly matches what it seems like around here.
Facebook has 842,000 supporting Obama and 157,000 supporting Clinton.
Clinton's aides are admitting defeat also.
We'll see how Tuesday goes!
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I was thinking this thread might have gotten too serious, now that we're into pretty clearly into the general and the hopes for more than partisan bickering become dim.
However, I think that until the running mates are chosen, there's still plenty of meta-political discussion to be had.
If McCain wants to scoop any attention by picking a running mate, he may need to do it soon. Though at this point, I think he might do well to let the country saturate on Democrats and then do his picking. It's a risky strategy. But McCain runs best as an underdog anyway.
I also think he can afford to wait and see if Obama is forced to take on Clinton. It may be they have already reached that agreement. If so, I think this could remain a very interesting race.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
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Attention is turning now that Clinton is changing her strategy from attacking Obama to attacking McCain. With them tag teaming against McCain and her only paying lip service to challenging Obama rather than really hammering him. It's turning into free media to attack McCain from the Democrats, and thus far McCain and Bush are only making it too easy.
It's a bad media turn for the Republicans, and good for the Democrats.
And yeah, I was thinking about either starting a new thread or changing the name of this one to switch into General mode, but, I was waiting for Obama to be the official presumptive nominee. I'll wait for June 3rd and the last of the Primaries, then this stage will be over and the next will begin in name as well as fact.
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You know, it's really pretty impressive the way this thread has managed to stay on-topic for 77 pages. There have been times when I thought it was going to derail, but it's never stayed off the tracks for very long.
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quote:(AP) Sen. Robert C. Byrd, a former member of the Ku Klux Klan and a one-time opponent of civil rights legislation, endorsed Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination on Monday.
Obama is vying to be the nation's first black president.
Byrd's support comes almost a week after the Illinois senator's 41-point loss to Hillary Rodham Clinton in the longtime lawmaker's home state of West Virginia.
Byrd said he had no intention of getting involved while his state was in the midst of a primary. "But the stakes this November could not be higher," he said in a written statement.
Byrd said Obama has the qualities to end the Iraq war, which he has strongly opposed.
"I believe that Barack Obama is a shining young statesman, who possesses the personal temperament and courage necessary to extricate our country from this costly misadventure in Iraq, and to lead our nation at this challenging time in history," Byrd said.
Byrd has repeatedly apologized for his time in the Ku Klux Klan, which he joined as a young man in the 1940s to fight communism. He also opposed integrating the military, and filibustered the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
Byrd is the longest-serving senator in history. As Senate president pro tempore, he is in line for the presidency after the vice president and House speaker.
posted
It only takes one post to get this thread back on track and then you can just ignore whatever nonsense was going on before it...
I don't think McCain will do so well when people actually pay attention to him. (for example, most of the videos responding to a "mccain" search term on Youtube cast him in a negative light, like this one.)
This morning's opinion column in the campus paper is the "generic college Republican" guy finally taking a look at McCain after months of defending him--and he doesn't like what he sees... The last sentence of his column was something like "I wish I could take my [mail-in Republican primary] ballot back and vote for Ron Paul"
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I just watched that video today too Nato. I'm curious though as to whether McCain has much support to begin with among the youtube crowd.
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quote:Originally posted by Nato: It only takes one post to get this thread back on track and then you can just ignore whatever nonsense was going on before it...
Well, that's always the case. The difference between this and most threads is that because this one concerns a developing story that a large number of people here care about, there are fairly frequent injections of new, on-topic information from a variety of posters. This generally helps to keep the thread flying straight, but even if it veers dramatically off-course, a development of any magnitude in the larger story is sure to move the thread back to its original trajectory.
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McCain is pro-choice and pro-immigration. Or, at least, he once was. I guess the Republicans have decided to forget about the immigration question for now. It would be a difficult press (from a strategic standpoint) against a candidate whose father was an immigrant. (I'm pro-immigration, hence the "strategic.") Did the majority of Ron Paulists found his revocation of birth citizenship to be their favorite plank? I can only hope not. I think they mostly liked Paul's never-say-die/no compromises idealism.
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Judging from the Facebook stats that are easiest for me to access to try to capture something like that demographic (young, connected), McCain has about 150,000 supporters and Obama 850,000... Among my friends who designate a preference, it's 1 for McCain to 25 for Obama...
So I imagine that he does not have much support in this demographic... But with such fierce resistance in it, does he have much of a chance?
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posted
There was a time Obama was getting kicked by Stephen Colbert in the Facebook presidency. It's basically meaningless.
I guess I better go and make sure I'm not still an Obama supporter on Facebook.
P.S. I have no idea how to go about that. I did leave the 1,000,000 strong for Obama group. I'm glad he got the nomination, and I think he may well win, but my vote is for McCain.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
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Do you think the people from the video link I posted (this one) are right that the mainstream media will ignore these criticisms of McCain?
I think that if people pay attention to what McCain stands for (or doesn't), he will have trouble energizing people. I think he is still coasting on the impression of the outsider maverick from 2000 that he is completely divorced from in terms of the positions he supports and the stability with which he supports them.
Also, there are some minor wedge issues that may turn off some segment of the Republican base (like immigration)...
And the whole country trending against Republicans has got to have some effect...
It just all seems that everything is against McCain, and nothing is for him? Are there any issues he is "strong" on? I just don't see him having any good qualities in terms of abilities to solve the mess we're in.
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quote:Originally posted by Nato: It only takes one post to get this thread back on track and then you can just ignore whatever nonsense was going on before it...
Well, that's always the case. The difference between this and most threads is that because this one concerns a developing story that a large number of people here care about, there are fairly frequent injections of new, on-topic information from a variety of posters. This generally helps to keep the thread flying straight, but even if it veers dramatically off-course, a development of any magnitude in the larger story is sure to move the thread back to its original trajectory.
And you have different posters around the forum coming in to be more active in the thread around the time of their state's primary.. (e.g. My state's is tomorrow)
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posted
You know what's weird, is on Pollster.com, Clinton still does better v. McCain than Obama, though Obama is now 7 pt.s ahead in a national democratic poll.
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I think this study concluded that political opinions aren't that different...yet. As this election has a lot of different demographics going different directions, the fact that most people who don't have a landline are under 30 may make a difference in this one even when it hadn't before. Some reports have the number of people in this demographic at 14% of the population and rising..They may also participate less though (only represented 7% of voters in the Pew link), so this might be a limiting factor on the impact. (I have a feeling that young voters are voting in high numbers, but my county has a very high turnout in every election, so that may not be representative)
quote:Originally posted by Nato: [QUOTE]And you have different posters around the forum coming in to be more active in the thread around the time of their state's primary.. (e.g. My state's is tomorrow)
Oh, that's interesting; that factor hadn't occurred to me.
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Summarizes some reasons to be skeptical of landline-only polls.
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Blayne Bradley
unregistered
posted
quote:Originally posted by pooka: There was a time Obama was getting kicked by Stephen Colbert in the Facebook presidency. It's basically meaningless.
I guess I better go and make sure I'm not still an Obama supporter on Facebook.
P.S. I have no idea how to go about that. I did leave the 1,000,000 strong for Obama group. I'm glad he got the nomination, and I think he may well win, but my vote is for McCain.
McCain for the collapse of American power.
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quote:You know what's weird, is on Pollster.com, Clinton still does better v. McCain than Obama, though Obama is now 7 pt.s ahead in a national democratic poll.
It's only weird depending on your preconceptions.
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"Attention is turning now that Clinton is changing her strategy from attacking Obama to attacking McCain. With them tag teaming against McCain and her only paying lip service to challenging Obama rather than really hammering him. It's turning into free media to attack McCain from the Democrats, and thus far McCain and Bush are only making it too easy.
It's a bad media turn for the Republicans, and good for the Democrats."
One was wondering how long it would take for common sense to overcome ego. I was asking myself, "must the Democratic party shoot itself in the foot again?"
I would seriously give John McCain a thousand bucks from my own pocket to bow out the day before the election, with no warning. Maybe 1500, and I'm not wealthy. Would he take it? I doubt it, but, if any of you hear otherwise, let me know. Posts: 3354 | Registered: May 2005
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"It's only weird depending on your preconceptions."
Irami, I agree with you that race is part of that, but so is age. McCain thrashes Obama among older voters, and so does Clinton. I really do think Obama is a bit on the young side for this job, and I hope he makes Bill Clinton his chief advisor, assuming he wins. A young man in that job needs gray heads around him.
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posted
WHAT PLAN?? Everything I've read from him and his campaign says that it is up to her to be a candidate as long as she wishes. They are making up something to be upset about.
It is turning into hilarity. Great - definitely vote for the person who doesn't let a little thing like getting fewer votes stand in the way of gaining power. What a great idea!
Posts: 26077 | Registered: Mar 2000
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quote:Originally posted by steven: A young man in that job needs gray heads around him.
Given the current state of our country, perhaps that's exactly what he doesn't need. The gray heads haven't exactly brought us to a utopia, have they?
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posted
I'd just like to point out that although I'm nearly a year younger than Obama, I've got plenty of gray hair (well, atleast its gray under the dye).
Obama, like any other person who might assume the oval office, needs to surround himself with people with expertise and experience in areas where he himself is lacking. No person has expertise and experience in all the areas important to this country no matter what their age or background.
One of my biggest complaints about the current administration is that it has favored loyalty and ideology over expertise and experience in its appointments.
[ May 20, 2008, 03:04 PM: Message edited by: The Rabbit ]
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quote:One of my biggest complaints about the current administration is that it has favored loyalty and ideology over expertise and experience in its appointments.
I agree. Is it really impossible for a nominee to have both? If it is, expertise is not the one that should suffer!
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