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We’re pretty much two months out from Election Night on November 4th. I plan to do a thread much like the Midterm elections to bring updates throughout the night on major House and Senate races, ballot proposals and this time, the electoral math from the various states. I don’t have to tell you about who is running for president, and I’m probably going to wait until election night itself to look up info on major ballot proposals (no offense other states, but I don’t care that much right now ).
But I thought I could take some time to lay out the Congressional races that will be taking place so you’re familiar with them over the next two months, and know what to look for on Election Night. Throughout the week I’ll be doing posts on the Senate, and then when I have time (as school starts next week) I’ll try and tackle the House, which is a much bigger fish, but with more of a focus on the truly big contentious races.
So, here’s your Senate preview:
Currently the Senate has a 49/49/2 split, with two independents (Sanders and Lieberman) caucusing with the Democrats. What’s at stake in this election? Democrats already control the Senate with an effective 51/49 split, but the magic number is 60. Senate rules require 60 senators (3/5ths of the Senate) to vote to invoke a cloture motion, which ends debate (the dreaded filibuster) and brings the issue to a vote. Democrats and Republicans alike have stymied each other with filibusters, which is the minority’s main tool in holding off majority rule. Two-thirds are still required for Senate rule changes (like changing rules on cloture motions and filibusters) and for overriding a Presidential veto. The hope for Democrats is that if they can pick up nine more seats, keep their Independent support, and get Obama elected president, they’d have a virtual monopoly in the Senate. Most analysts predict somewhere between 5-20 seats to be picked up in the House, adding to a considerable Democratic majority there, but this would end the gridlock that so often kills Democratic bills. But a whole lot has to happen to get there.
35 seats are up for reelection this year in the US Senate, 23 Republican seats and 12 Democratic seats. By nature of numbers alone, Republicans are defending a lot more territory than Democrats, and added to that is the fact that five of those 23 Republican seats are vacant because of a retirement, meaning no incumbent will be there to defend the seat. Two of those Republican seats are also special elections, but I’ll get into that later. As far as money goes, in general, the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee as of the end of June has a $43 million war chest, to the Republican’s $24.6 million. I’ll break down the races by the party of the seat being defended.
Democrats
Mark Pryor (AR) – In a state won by Bush in each of the last two elections, the Republicans are not fielding a candidate to oppose Pryor, who is a first term Democratic senator, and the only senator to take a seat from the Republicans in the 2002 Senate race. There was speculation that Mike Huckabee would run for the seat if his presidential bid failed, but he declined to do so. Pryor is running unopposed, except for a Green party candidate that he is expected to resoundingly defeat. Safe Democrat
Joe Biden (DE) – It’s still unclear if Biden will run for his Senate seat and for the Vice Presidency as Deleware state law allows. If he does run, he’s widely expected to win, as he has for the last six years. The party primary is on September 9th, so we’ll know by then who the candidate for the seat is. If he loses the VP election, he would return to his seat for his seventh term, but if he wins the election, the Governor of Deleware would choose a replacement who would then have to be confirmed in a special election in 2010. His son “Beau” Biden is considered a favorite, though it is unclear exactly how that would work with him about to be deployed to Iraq with his National Guard unit. Presumably he’d be recalled, but if he is unavailable, a few other statewide Democratic names are in the mix. Safe Democrat
Dick Durbin (IL) – Durbin is running for his third term, serves in the second highest position among Senate Democrats as Majority Whip, and was hailed by TIME magazine as one of the Senate’s 10 best Senators. He is running against Republican Steve Sauerberg, a doctor from western Chicago, and the most recent poll has Durbin up by some 30 points. This election is considered “safe” by pollsters and analysts alike. Many are suggesting that it was Durbin, a friend of Biden’s, who subtly campaigned for his friend for the VP spot on the ticket. Either way, this seat is in no jeopardy. Safe Democrat
Tom Harkin (IA) – Harkin is running for his fifth Senate term from Iowa. His opponent is Christopher Reed, a businessman and Navy vet who narrowly edged out his two Republican opponents in what was nearly a three way tie in the Republican primary. Polling currently has Harkin beating Reed by around 25 points, and Harkin’s numbers over the last few months have never fallen below the low 50’s. Furthermore, Iowa did very well for Democrats in the 2006 midterms, where Democrats defended a Governorship, picked up two House seats, and took control of both houses of the state legislature. It’s also a state that every poll I’ve seen recently has trending for Obama by anything from five to ten points in the last month, which gives Harkin the added bonus of an downticket bump. Safe Democrat
Mary Landrieu (LA) – Here’s where the Democrats run into a little bit of trouble. Mary Landrieu suffers from a mountain of bad omens in her race for her third Senate term. The state’s Democratic population took a big hit when Katrina came through, and a large number of the residents who left have not returned and show no signs of doing so anytime soon. Estimates are that there was a net loss of 50,000 Democratic voters, which was pretty much her margin of victory six years ago. Add to that the fact that Louisiana just elected Bobby Jindal, a young Republican, to the Governor’s mansion to replace a Democrat; widely criticized Kathleen Blanco. On the bright side, Landrieu has a two to one fundraising advantage, and Landrieu’s brother was elected as Lieutenant Governor, beating out two Republicans for the job (including country singer Sammy Kershaw). But I don’t think that last part will do much for her chances. Landrieu enjoys wide support in New Orleans, her home town and political support base, and is credited there with helping to get the state what it needed after Katrina. Landrieu’s opponent is John Kennedy (no relation), a former Democrat who ran for the Senate seat as a Democrat in 2004 but lost. I guess Landrieu has the fact that he came in third in that election, and that a party switch will have some odd effects on the electorate going for her. The polls show mixed views of the race. Every poll from March to June showed her consistently polling in the low to mid 40’s. Recent Rasmussen polls have her up 15 points over Kennedy. No offense to Rasmussen, but I think this one is a lot closer than that. For Democrats, this will be one of the major close races to watch in trying to defend their own territory. Lousiana is currently going for McCain by double digit margins, and Landrieu may have to rely on split ticket voters who support McCain for the White House but her for the Capitol. She has the fact that Louisiana Republicans and Democrats are closer to each other than they are nationally, and that she has a strong centrist image, but that might not be enough to save her.Lean Democratic/Race to Watch
John Kerry (MA) – Kerry is running for his fifth term in the Senate. Even though the primaries for both parties haven’t happened yet, the results from the Democratic state convention and the failure of Republican opposition to secure enough ballot signatures have all but set the race as Kerry versus Republican John Beatty. Beatty is running on his anti-terrorism and military credentials, while Kerry is running, I would assume on his “look how liberal I am!” credentials. I mean hey, it’s Massachusetts . All kidding aside, Massachussets hasn’t elected anyone Congress from the Republican party since 1994, and hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 1972. If you want polling data though, the last poll was taken in June, and has him winning by anywhere from 20 to 30 points. Safe Democrat
Carl Levin (MI) – Levin is the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and is running for his sixth term. Levin’s opposition is Republican state rep John Hoogendyk, who is currently losing by almost 30 points and has a huge fundraising disadvantage against Levin, whose brother is running for reelection in the Detroit suburbs for a House seat. Levin also faces Libertarian challenger Scotty Boman, who I’m guessing is hoping people will mistake for former Detroit Red Wings coach Scotty Bowman, who would probably get more votes from local hockey fans alone. Levin’s been in the Senate forever, and most everyone around here loves the guy. Safe Democrat
Max Baucus (MT) – At first blush, you’d think Montana would be a solidly Republican state. They’ve voted for a Republican I think every time since they were made a state for the presidency, but in statewide elections they’ve recently been trending Democrat. Governor Brian Schweitzer was considered a VP hopeful for Obama before Biden was picked (more of a dark horse candidate I’d say). They elected a Democrat, Jon Tester, in a closely contested Senate race two years ago. On the other hand, Republicans took over the state house in 2006. Baucus is a very popular five term Senator though, and if the trends don’t convince you one way or the other, his opponent will. Baucus is running against 85 year old Bob Kelleher, who has lost 15 of the last 16 things he has run for. He beat five other Republican nominees in the primary (surprising everyone paying attention) who were fairly in line with common Conservative principles. Kelleher has run for the Green party’s nomination before. He supports single payer healthcare, wants to nationalize the US oil and gas industry, wants to replace Congress and the presidency with a parliamentary system, is pro-life, thinks taxes are a way to save America, not hurt it, champions the poor and loves government. I think in Congress his closest political ally would be far flung Left winger Bernie Sanders. How he got elected to the Republican ticket is beyond me, but seems to baffle experts looking at the race, but there are a number of theories ranging from too many Republicans splitting the vote to a Ron Paul effect. Max Baucus will win this race in a landslide, I predict, and even if he doesn’t, and by some crazy twist of fate Kelleher wins the election, so far as I can tell a Democrat will still have won, even if not in name. Safe Democrat (regardless)
Frank Lautenberg (NJ) – Lautenberg is running for his fifth non-consecutive Senate term in a rather hostile climate. Polling data taken over the last two years has him as the most disliked Democratic Senator in his own state. He faced a serious primary challenge from Rob Andrews, but defeated him. He will go on to face Dick Zimmer, a former member of the US House and the NJ Legislature, in the final election. Lautenberg has teetered back and forth in the polls between being behind, tied with, and ahead of Zimmer, and his age, at 84, could be a factor. Recent polls wildly vary, showing anything from a seven point to 18 point lead over Zimmer. I guess it depends on whose polling data you believe, as the polls are coming from Rasmussen, Zogby and Quinnipiac, the last of whom I probably trust the best out of the group, and also the one that has the race at a seven point difference for Lautenberg. I expect things to narrow as the race gets closer to election time, but it’s hard to say what will happen with Lautenberg, who is familiar to Jersey voters, and who until a few months ago wasn’t very widely regarded favorably. Lean Democratic/Race to Watch
Jack Reed (RI) – Reed is running for his third term in the US Senate. Reed has a very liberal record, which is fine I guess when you’re from Rhode Island, is a former army ranger and paratrooper, graduate of Harvard Law, state senator, US House Rep, Kennedy School graduate and two term US Senator. He won reelection in 2002 with almost 80% of the vote. The guy he beat in 2002, Robert Tingle, is his opponent in 2008. The last poll taken has him up by almost 50 points. This is considered the safest race of every seat up for election. Safe Democrat
Tim Johnson (SD) – Tim Johnson, as many of you may know, is a survivor of prostate cancer, and more recently had bleeding in the brain in 2006 which kept him out of the Senate for a year. Republicans had considered his seat up for grabs in the 2008 election, but his recent return to good health has stymied their hopeful plans. South Dakota elected a Republican, John Thune (who Johnson defeated by 528 votes in 2002) to replace Tom Daschle in 2004. South Dakota has a Republican governor, who many fear would replace Johnson with a Republican should his health concerns grow more serious. His opponent is Joel Dykstra. Most recent polls show Johnson ahead by as many as 25 points due to his resurgence of health, but many on both sides expect this to be the Democrats’ other major battleground (other than Landrieu in Louisiana). Despite his high polling numbers now, Republicans plan to spend a lot of effort and money to elect Dykstra here. Expect the race to narrow closer to November. Lean Democratic/Race to Watch
John “Jay” Rockefeller IV (WV) – First off, John Jay? I didn’t know there were that many John Jay fans out there, unless it’s a coincidence. Jay Rockefeller is the great-grandson of oil baron J.D. Rockefeller. He’s a four term incumbent seeking a fifth. West Virginia is a state that until 2000 was considered prime and secure Democratic territory. Since then Republicans have captured it twice in national presidential elections, ousted a Democratic House rep, and given two more a run for their money. It has also made inroads into the state legislature. Democrats however still hold a 60/40 and 68/22 margin in the state senate and house and Robert Byrd was reelected by a 31% margin of victory in 2006 back to his US Senate seat. I don’t have any current polling data, but no one I’ve read has listed West Virginia as a state in contention, and Rockefeller’s opponent, Jay Wolfe, is the same guy who ran against Rockefeller in 2002 and lost by 27%. Safe Democrat
Summary: Democrats had a reasonable hope of protecting every Senate seat they have up for grabs in the 2008 election. It’s unlikely that they’ll be unable to unseat either Lautenberg or Johnson, and from the looks of things, even Landrieu may have turned things around, but if you’re going to even try and follow Senate races over the next two months, these are the only three even close to being in contention for the Democrats to defend:
New Jersey – Frank Lautenberg (D) vs. Dick Zimmer (R) South Dakota – Tim Johnson (D) vs. Joel Dykstra (R) Louisiana – Mary Landrieu (D) vs. John Kennedy (R)
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Lyrhawn, I don't know if you've found it yet or not, but fivethirtyeight.com might be right up your alley.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: May 2001
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Interesting. I like the layout of the website, and the ease of access to the polling data. The commentary is interesting also. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but it's a much more cautious and less partisan take than it seems like I've been getting elsewhere. It'll be a good, easy place to stop and check when I'm updating the races over the next few weeks.
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No problem. I found it because the author is Nate Silver. If you're not a baseball dork you've probably never heard of him. He's a major player at baseball prospectus, and invented the player-forecasting system, PECOTA, which is about the most accurate of the various projections availbe (always, depending, of course, on how you define accurate). obviously, he's a big time math-guy, and I think that shows up in the work he's done with fivethirtyeight... its much more model driven then other analysis, which I think is going to make it more reliable then other sites.
Of course, I'm biased because I'm a baseball dork and I want to see Silver do well Posts: 4112 | Registered: May 2001
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quote:Originally posted by James Tiberius Kirk: That's an interesting site -- how do they award 1/2 an electoral vote, though?
They do 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, using their adjusted polling averages as probabilities, and report the mean number of EVs each candidate receives. So generally the graphic with the number of EVs reported won't be a whole number, but the average of 10,000 different whole numbers.
Posts: 2926 | Registered: Sep 2005
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This will be a two part feature, as I’m trying to do about 12 Congresspeople per night. Republicans have a lot of serious problems ahead of them in this Senate race. They have their share of safe Senate seats, and it’s unlikely that Democrats will pick up the 9 seats necessary to gain their supermajority, but as you’ll see, it’s not impossible. This is the widest disparity, by the way, in the gap between defending Democrats and Republicans in 50 years. But I guess it wasn’t that hard 50 years ago when Republicans were an endangered species in Congress. We’ll run into a couple races on the Republican side that are widely considered to be safe for the Democrats to pick up, but I’m going to call any race that involves a party switch to be a “race to watch” even if Republicans don’t have much of a chance of defending the seat. A * next to the end of summary guess of which party is leading indicates a party switch. Without further delay, let’s get into the Republicans:
Jeff Sessions (AL) – Alabama is not considered a state of contention for the Republicans this year. Sessions is running for his third Senate term from Alabama, is an Eagle Scout and former Alabama AG. He has a rather colorful history, but he won reelection to his seat in 2002 by a 19 point margin. His opponent this time around is Vivian Figures, a state senator who is currently running 15-20 points behind him in the latest polls. Alabama has consistently voted Republican in recent presidential elections, despite the fact that both houses of their state legislature are Democratic controlled. Republican Safe
Ted Stevens (AK) – You have to love Ted Stevens, if for no other reason than being the guy who provided us with the famous "series of tubes," comment. But despite the fact that he was the architect of the now infamous “bridge to nowhere,” and despite the fact that he’s under investigation by the FBI, faces seven indictments for not reporting gifts in violation of the Ethics in Government Act, and his age (he’ll be 85 in November), he still not only runs, but says after his primary victory that victory in November will be “a breeze.” Now that’s confidence. Polls and public sentiment however don’t agree with him. Until mid-July, the race was pretty close, teetering back and forth with Stevens eking out a few point lead here and there. Since his July 29th indictments, his opponent, current Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has vaulted into the lead, with anywhere from a 10-15 point lead in the last month. Stevens will face a hearing in September that will take him off the campaign trail (such as it is in Alaska). Begich easily won the Democratic primary, and interestingly, the guy he beat out for the mayor’s spot in 2006 is named, I kid you not, Jack Frost. I can see the bumper sticker now “Elect Begich for Senate 08: The guy who beat Jack Frost.” Maybe a little long for a bumper sticker, maybe more of a slogan. Stevens hasn’t lost a race in Alaska since he was appointed to the seat in the 60’s, but Republicans under indictment haven’t fared well in recent elections. Things could change based on what happens at his hearing in September, but I doubt the spotlight shining on his FBI probe will do him much good. *Lean Democratic/Race to Watch
Saxby Chambliss (GA) – Most analysts agree that Georgia isn’t really in contention this year, or at least they did until recently. Georgia is a sort of a mythical hope for Democrats this time around. Saxby Chambliss is the guy who beat Max Cleland in 2002 in a narrow, very dirty race in which Cleland, a triple amputee Vietnam War vet was labeled un-American by I believe third party groups not attached to Chambliss. Chambliss enjoys a 61% approval rating by Georgians, but like I said, Georgia is a weird place this time around. Chambliss is ahead of his opponent, former state rep and Vietnam war vet Jim Martin by only 6 points according to the most recent poll, down from an all time high lead of 29 points back in late June. Polls since June have shown the race steadily narrowing, and though I’m not entirely sure why, I have a guess. The reason Democrats are so giddy, or at least hopeful, about Georgia is what’s been happening there in recent months. With the nomination of Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate for president, there is real energy in the large black community in Georgia. State rolls show a dramatic dropoff in Republican affiliation and increase in Democratic affiliation while Obama’s voter registration efforts there since his primary win have steadily been signing up thousands of previous unregistered blacks in the state. Add to that a large influx of Katrina refugees that generally vote Democratic in Louisiana and have changed their home state to vote in Georgia. Obama’s hope for the Fall is that this plus Bob Barr’s candidacy will allow him to steal Georgia, but it may turn out that if this isn’t to be, then the real magic will be all the benefits of his efforts fall to Jim Martin, who could eke out a win against Chambliss. There’s still a lot of time between now and November, but I call this one a race to watch. Lean Republican/Race to Watch
Pat Roberts (KS) – Roberts is running for a third term from the state of Kansas in a race that is considered to be very safe for Republicans. Kansas is one of the more conservative voting states in the country, and hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. There is nothing to indicate that that trend is changing anytime soon. Roberts holds a 27 point lead over his opponent, former Congressman Jim Slattery. Safe Republican
Mitch McConnell (KY) – Something important to remember in the Kentucky Senate race is that television ads for Senate campaigns generally don’t start until September or even as late as October. Unlike the Presidential race, they generally don’t have the money to lavish on expensive television markets months and months before the race. I probably should have thrown that out there before I even started this but, it’s elections like Kentucky’s (and all close elections) that such a fact is important to remember when looking at the election at the end of August. NY Senator Chuck Schumer the guy in charge of getting Democrats elected to the Senate in 2008, has called McConnell’s Kentucky seat a top priority of his. McConnell is under so much heat because he’s the Minority Leader in the Senate, and Democrats would love to unseat him. McConnell is running for his fifth term, and is by my estimation one of the most conservatives members of the Senate (this I estimate both by his perfect score from the American Conservative Union and his election to Minority Leader). He’s a former army reservist, law school graduate, four term Senator from Kentucky. McConnell’s seat has been won fairly easily in past reelections, and he’s favored to win again, and will be helped by the fact that his opponent, Bruce Lunsford, has a lot of baggage from former business dealings and several failed attempts to run for state office. He may be hurt by the fact that other major Republican office holders, like his fellow Republican senator Jim Bunning (who narrowly won four years ago) and recently defeated (last November) Republican governor Ernie Fletcher are wildly unpopular at the moment. Democrats took control of both state houses in the 2006 midterm elections. Polls showed the race as razor thin back in May and June, but McConnell has opened a 10 point lead since then. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when the ad war starts, especially if Democrats really plan to sink that much money into the race. Lean Republican/Race to Watch
Susan Collins (ME) – Collins, despite saying she wouldn’t seek a third term, is seeking her third term in the US Senate against Democratic opponent Tom Allen. Maine was supposed to be considered a hotly contested race in the Fall, but such a contest has yet to materialize. Olympia Snowe, her fellow Maine Senator was resoundingly reelected to the Senate in 2006. She currently leads Allen by 15 points in a state that Obama is winning by 12 points. It’s possible that the race could heat up in the coming weeks, and that Obama’s downticket effect could give Allen some boost, but right now the race is looking anything but competitive with no signs of changing. I might change it’s designation if Allen shows more life, but for now…Safe Republican
Norm Coleman (MN) – This is probably one of the more interesting races due to who is running. Coleman’s opponent is comedian Al Franken. Already the race is the most expensive race in US Senate history. By all rights, Franken should have fertile ground for the seat running as a Democrat, but his biggest obstacle seems to be his mountain of very non-family friendly comedy. The race was originally clearly in Coleman’s camp, but since then Coleman has spent the last year crisscrossing the state and blitzing the television with ads. He has a lot of ground to make up, both in repairing his own image and in gaining traction against a heavily favored incumbent. But Franken has some good indicators. Governor Pawlenty was barely reelected in 2006 (but he still defeated his Democratic opponent), but Amy Klobuchar took a Republican Senate seat away by defeating Mark Kennedy. The Democrats took control of the state house and furthered their gains in the senate. The state is being led by Obama in the presidential election by 10 points. Recent polls are all over the place. The race has been back and forth the last month. The last two polls, taken one day after each other, show Franken up by one point, and then down by seven the next day. The results are all over the place, making it hard to ascertain who is really ahead, but I think that’s because Franken has narrowed the gap and it’s a real horse race. If that’s true, then it’s pretty impressive considering the rich ground Coleman has to use in commercials against Franken, mostly I’d imagine on a family values attack. But I’ve seen video of Franken on the campaign trail, and he’s actually pretty impressive. When he drops the comedian’s veneer and the talk show host rancor he comes across as genuine, caring, smart, and articulate. I think he’s a natural campaigner. Coleman is going to get some major help from the Republicans next week when the RNC comes to the Twin Cities. He’s bound to get a prime speaking spot at the convention, (I haven’t seen Franken at the DNC thus far). Despite Coleman’s most recent lead in the poll, I think this one is far too close to call. Tie/Race to Watch
Roger Wicker (MS) – This is one of two races in Mississippi this year. Generally a state doesn’t let both senators run for office at the same time, but when Trent Lott resigned in 2007, the governor appointed Roger Wicker as his replacement, who had to be reelected by special election. There was some controversy over when the election could take place, with Democrats arguing it should’ve taken place back in March, but the Republicans argued it to the Supreme Court and got it pushed back to November of 2008, which benefits their candidate as he may have fallen prey to the higher name recognition of Ronnie Musgrove, a former Mississippi governor. Wicker has steadily gained in the polls over the last year, but as of late July they were still pretty much dead even. In the last month Wicker has broken open a nine point lead. Remember that in the last year, MS-01, a House district went from Republican to Democratic hands in one of the most surprising upsets of the last couple years. Musgrove enjoys wide name recognition and close polls, against Wicker’s relative unknown factor. But Wicker is still ahead in an election that was targeted as a good pickup chance for the Democrats. Larger turnout from an excited black population as a result of Obama’s candidacy might push more people to the polls on Election Day, but a shot at a senate seat would always have been a challenge for Democrats in Mississippi. There’s a good chance this one could narrow again in the coming weeks. Lean Republican/Race to Watch
Thad Cochran (MS) – Cochran is the other Republican running to defend a Mississippi senate seat. Unlike Wicker, Cochran is an established name in the seat and is running for his fifth consecutive senate term. His opponent is Democrat Erik Fleming, who is currently running nearly 30 points behind Cochran. Expect all the attention in Mississippi to be focused on the special election, since this one is safely in Republican hands. Safe Republican
John Sununu (NH) – Sununu is in his first reelection campaign. New Hampshire is a quirky little holdout that generally defies the general trend of the northeast to vote Democratic by going whichever way the mood strikes them any particular year. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000 I believe, and Kerry won them in 2004. This year it’s a neck and neck tie between McCain and Obama. Obama has a razor thin, insignificant lead over McCain. His senate counterpart, Judd Gregg has won dramatic victories in each of his last two elections, but mostly against powderpuff opponents. This year’s election however is going to be a repeat of 2002’s. Sununu and his opponent, former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen, faced off in 2002, where Sununu beat her by 20,000 votes. If you want to go back to the New Hampshire primary earlier this year, 280,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary, and 220,000 were cast in the Republican primary. Shaheen was a popular three term New Hampshire governor who narrowly lost in 2002 to Sununu after being attacked for her pro-choice/pro-gay rights stance, and for supporting several controversial tax increases (New Hampshire has no sales tax, and apparently really doesn’t want one). There was also a controversy which led to several convictions concerning a Republican plot to jam Democratic phone banks, which some blame for Shaheen’s loss. Regardless, in the 2008 race, Sununu is starting off with some handicaps. In a state that has a majority disapproval of both Bush and the war in Iraq, Sununu continues to voice support for the war. Shaheen has run ahead of Sununu in every poll I’ve seen that was taken in 2008, and enjoys a 10 point lead in the most recent polls. *Lean Democrat/Race to Watch
Elizabeth Dole (NC) – Liddy Dole ran in 2002 for her first term as North Carolina’s senator in what seemed like a perfect convergence of factors to allow her to defeat wealthy Democrat Erskine Bowles. Since then she has strongly supported an increasingly unpopular President and an increasingly unpopular war. A once safe Republican state, North Carolina is now considered by some to be up for grabs in the presidential race (I’m not one of those people, I think it’s pretty safely red). Democrats had hoped to recruit incumbent governor Mike Easley to run against Dole, but he didn’t want to be a senator. Other popular names also fell through the cracks, which left them with state senator (from Greensboro no less) Kay Hagan. Hagan has been down by 5 to 15 points for months until just recently, when the election suddenly became one of the most hotly contested in the nation. Two weeks ago Dole’s advantage evaporated into a tie, and days ago that tie turned into a Hagan lead of a couple points. Hagan has been hammering away at Dole’s Washington connections and Bush support, saying she is too far removed from North Carolina politics, but to Dole’s credit, she’s recently been putting up a fight of her own. Hagan could try and make hay out of the fact that Dole was chairwoman of the NRSC, the Republican senate group that tries to get Senators elected in 2006 when the Republicans lost six seats and control of the Senate, but I doubt they’d care much unless she tries to tie it into a wider attack on Dole’s Washingtonness. Hagan has come under fire recently for taking large sums of money from Moveon.org members. A potential spoiler could be Chris Cole, who is polling at 5% statewide for the Libertarian ticket. But I haven’t seen a poll with enough detail to tell who he’s drawing support from, but I’d guess Dole. Either way, this one just got interesting, and it’s too close to call. Tie/Race to Watch
James Inhofe (OK) – Inhofe is running for a third term and is not expected to face any serious opposition from his opponent, Andrew Rice. In every poll I’ve seen but one, Inhofe is running almost 20 points ahead of Rice. The most recent poll, from August 12th, has it down to nine points, but I’m skeptical. It’d be a dramatic turnaround in the race and no poll since has confirmed it, as there have been no major polls done since then. Oklahoma is widely considered to be a safe state for Republicans, and every state poll but the most recent confirms that. Rice is a state senator, and Inhofe is a former soldier in the army who has been in Okalahoma politics for much of his life. If the positive trend for Rice changes I might change the status of this election, but it looks to clearly be in Republican hands to me. Safe Republican
Gordon Smith (OR) – Smith is the last of a dying breed: West Coast Republican senators. In 2006, a Democratic governor sailed to reelection and Democrats took control of both houses of the state legislature. Oregon has gone for a Democratic president in each of the last five elections, and is currently heavily leaning towards Obama. His approval ratings in the state are near where Bush’s are. Still, he’s a seasoned politician running consistently 5-10 points ahead of his opponent, state Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley, whose name I can’t hear without thinking of Murky from Rainbow Brite. Smith has a moderate record and has released ads touting his success at working with Kerry and Obama, and against Bush. He’s running as a defender of those suffering from tough economic times and as a bi-partisan maverick. He does have some clear contrasts with Bush, but Merkley is focusing attention on the numerous bills that Smith has voted with Bush on, and on the fact that he recently spent a million dollars on a rare set of golf clubs. Smith in some ways is the Landrieu of the Republican side. He has to count on split ticket voters who vote for Obama and then vote for him. Merkley is getting some major help from the national Democratic party, as this is considered one of the prime seats for a takeover by the Dems. The most recent poll has Merkley down by six. A couple polls include Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow, who sounds like an odd mixture of both Republican and Democratic positions. He describes himself as 'a former Gordon Smith defending Republican who now sounds more like Ron Paul.’ The two polls I’ve seen with him in them have him in the 5-8 point range, which is pretty good for a third party candidate. This will be one of the more hotly contested races going into the Fall. Lean Republican/Race to WatchPosts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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No offense to the following Republicans, but to save myself some time (and because I don’t think anyone will miss the mini-bios I’m doing ), I’m going to lump the last five safe Republican states together. Lindsey Graham (SC), Lamar Alexander (TN), John Cornyn (TX), Michael Enzi (WY), & John Barrasso (WY) are all considered Safe Republican. Wyoming, like Mississippi has two senators running because of a special election to confirm an appointed senator. Those are the safe senators running for reelection. There were five retirements in the senate this year, all of them Republican. One of them, retiring Chuck Hagel (NE), is assuredly going to be replaced by Republican Mike Johanns (NE) and this race is considered Republican Safe.
The final four are all in states with a retiring Republican, leaving no incumbent, and in three of those four, a strong chance for a party flip.
Idaho – This one will probably stay in Republican hands. Republican Jim Risch, Idaho’s lieutenant governor is running to replace Larry Craig, who retired amidst a sex scandal and what not. Challenging him is Democrat Larry LaRocco, army vet and former congressman. The race has narrowed slightly in the last month to a ten point race, with independent Rex Rammell polling in the five or six point range. Risch has seen his lead drop to ten points in the last month, but Idaho is as red as they get, and without Craig’s scandal, this seat wouldn’t even be in play. There are still more than 20 points worth of undecideds up for grabs, but LaRocco would need almost all of them to overtake and hold a lead against Risch. It’s hard to say exactly where this one is going, but I think the seat will stay in Republican hands, unless something dramatic happens. Lean Republican
Virginia – Former Democratic governor Mark Warner and former Republican governor Jim Gilmore are currently fighting for the seat of retiring Republican senator John Warner (no relation to Mark). They’re both popular, but Warner is more recent (and more popular) and has consistently been whooping Gilmore in the polls. He’s been at least 20 points up in the polls for the last two months, in a state that is currently narrowly in Obama’s camp and has been trending Democrat for the last couple years. Barring a dramatic shift, this one is safely in the bag for Democrats. *Safe Democrat
New Mexico – This contest will be to fill the seat of retiring Republican senator Pete Dominici, who was expected to run for his seat and easily win reelection but chose not to due to a degenerative brain disorder. Running for his seat will be Republican Steve Pearce, who chose not to run for reelection for his House seat to instead run for the senate seat. Opposing him is Democrat Tom Udall, who also chose not to run for reelection for his seat to run for the open senate seat. He’s also a former AG of New Mexico. Udall has been ahead for weeks now, though the most recent poll shows the gap narrowing to eight points, down from where it was a month ago at 26 points up, which is a pretty dramatic dip. Trends show Udall being way ahead, and most analysts agree that the state is likely to flip. *Lean Democrat/Race to Watch
Colorado – The final race is to replace the seat being vacated by Republican Wayne Allard. Republican Bob Schaffer, a former house rep will be running against Democrat Mark Udall, a current house rep from Colorado. Udall is the first cousin of Tom Udall, who is running in New Mexico, and is the second cousin of Gordon Smith, who is running for reelection in Oregon. The election has been a less than ten point race for the last few months, but Udall has always been ahead (except one poll had them tied). The race will tighten in the coming weeks, but for now, the Udalls have it. *Lean Democratic/Race to Watch
Summary: Republicans are in some trouble. New Mexico and Virginia are virtually considered locked up for the Democrats. Many more think that New Hampshire, Colorado and Alaska are also locked up for the Democrats, and there’s strong indication to think that way. If Democrats can seal those states, and it appears likely that they could, they’ll need four more for their supermajority. Those four will likely have to come from some combination of Idaho, North Carolina, Oregon, Georgia, Mississippi, Minnesota, or Kentucky. They need four out of those seven. All in all Republicans have 12 very or somewhat vulnerable seats in play here:
Currently Polling for Democrats Alaska – Ted Stevens (R) vs. Mark Begich (D) New Hampshire – John Sununu (R) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D) Virginia – Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Mark Warner (D) Colorado – Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D) New Mexico – Steve Pearce (R) vs. Tom Udall (D)
Currently Tied in Polls North Carolina – Elizabeth Dole (R) vs. Kay Hagan (D)
Currently Polling for Republicans Georgia – Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D) Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D) Minnesota – Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (D) Mississippi – Roger Wicker (R) vs. Ronnie Musgrove (D) Oregon – Gordon Smith (R) vs. Jeff Murkley (D) Idaho – Jim Risch (R) vs. Larry LaRocco (D)
That’s it for the Senate. Feel free to discuss and throw out questions. I might turn this into the 2008 Senate Election Thread in the coming weeks if I find I have time to update polls and stuff, but you all likely already have your websites for that sort of thing anyway. But I might still find something that isn’t in the polls that might be of interest, especially for people that don’t check up on this sort of thing in a regular basis. If I get some time this weekend before classes start next week, I’ll try to highlight the most vulnerable House seats that Democrats are eyeing, and any weak Democratic spots that the GOP might be eyeing. Otherwise it’ll have to wait until closer to election night.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Palin has helped push a lot of Republican seats that Democrats might have been eyeing totally out of reach. Idaho, Kentucky and Georgia are no longer in contention. It's really narrowed down to just a few states to watch. The Democrats it seems are fine in defending their states, unless something shifts by a half dozen points in NJ.
The race in Minnesota has narrowed to a dead heat, and remains a dead heat in North Carolina, and has narrowed in Oregon slightly. The real races to watch with a month and change to go in the election are: Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, and Mississippi/B. Of those, Mississippi remains the toughest nut to crack. Wicker has made some cautious gains, but nothing spectacular. In Alaska, Begich has a new fight on his hands. Palin has reenergized support for Stevens, even as she tries to distance herself from the scandal plagued ancient senator. Combine that with the fact that Obama is pulling his resources out of a state he no longer has a chance of winning and you get what might be a problem for Begich, who is still polling several points ahead of Stevens.
Democrats need all the states in bold above if they want a super majority.
I still intend to try and do some sort of feature for the House, but I'm having trouble finding a decent website that gives quick summaries of the important races. All I can find are random guesses on what many imagine will be the outcome, which seems to range on average from 10-20 seats that the Dems will pick up (net gain), further extending their lead. I'll keep looking.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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The wind certainly seems to be moving in the Dems' favor. Oregon and North Carolina are considered to be leaning towards the Democrats.
Several races that were previously totally out of reach have now come back within striking distance, including Kentucky and Georgia. Things have also narrowed in Mississippi. Even the race in Texas has come down to a point that Dems feel may be vulnerable.
As it stands, Dems have a fair lock on NM, VA, CO and probably NH as well. AK is in their camp for the moment, but it's a tenuous lead that might depend on how Stevens' trial goes. NC and OR are leaning their way but with the slightest of leads that just recently became theirs. It's basically a dead heat that leans Democratic. MS/2 is a possibility for Dems, but is in about the same position that Alaska is on the other side. MN is a dead heat that leans Republican. In the wings, KY, GA, and even TX have seen shifts towards Democrats, and keep in mind the huge registration drives and get out the vote efforts in Georgia.
Now, remember that 9 is the magic number for Dems to get their 60 seat Supermajority, and 10 is what I call the Lieberman Number; if they reach it, he'll likely face a major party backlash for his behavior recently.
With that in mind, the vulnerable GOP seats and their current standing:
Safe Dem: VA, NM, CO, NH Leaning Dem: AK Dead Heat: OR, NC, MN Leaning GOP: MS2 5-10 Lead for GOP but still in striking distance: TX, GA, KY
That's 12 states. They need 9 of them. It's a longshot, but they have a lot of outs.
I'm STILL on the hunt for a decent site with ANY sort of polling data updated on a semi-regular basis for House races. I might just have to wait for election night itself to come up with any sort of list on competitive races based on early returns from the poll themselves, but I'm not sure the individual House races are really as interesting considering the outcome is just going to be how big the Democratic majority margin will be.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
538 updated again today. The link I have in the last post is actually to the most updated post, rather than the post I was specifically writing about when I posted.
Changes?
Safe Dem: VA, NM, CO, NH (all stay the same) Leaning Dem: NC Dead Heat: AK (this will change when the Stevens trial finishes, one way or the other), MN, OR (I'm leaving it in Dead Heat, but polls show a shift to Merkley and the Dems) Leaning GOP: GA (great polls for Jim Martin show a tightening race), MS2 (this one is also tightening and could be a dead heat if trends continue) 5-10 Lead for GOP but in striking distance: TX, KY
Seems to be largely positive movement for Dems, with the only good news for the GOP coming out of Alaska. 338 gives them a 1 in 4 chance of getting to 60. I think it's even higher than that when you consider the downticket effect from Obama's turnout effort, and I think that as these races tighten, the Democratic party will flood them with more funding. Martin in Georgia is doing well despite being relatively underfunded. That might change if polls over the next week show a really tight race.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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"I think it's even higher than that when you consider the downticket effect from Obama's turnout effort,"
Keep in mind that in some of these states there's a lot of people being removed from the voting registries (mostly illegally), so the turnout effect is going to be at least partially negated by scumbags violating people's constitutional rights in the hopes that they won't bring legal action.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: May 2001
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The outlook in Senate races continues to deteriorate for Republicans, with Democratic gains at least in the high single digits increasingly likely. Where I once wrote in this space that Democrats had a chance of reaching 60 seats in 2010 (“For Democrats, Time to Pad Senate Majority and Think 60 Seats,” Feb. 12, 2007), I now can’t rule out 60 seats for this November.
Virginia and New Mexico are already gone, and Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon aren’t far behind. Add in North Carolina, and Democrats are plus-seven (and at 58 seats) without Minnesota or Mississippi, which are up for grabs.
Republicans can no longer count Kentucky as a lock, and if the Democrats spend significant sums of money against Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) in Georgia, they might even have a chance to swipe that unlikely seat.
Posts: 1784 | Registered: Jun 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Paul Goldner: "I think it's even higher than that when you consider the downticket effect from Obama's turnout effort,"
Keep in mind that in some of these states there's a lot of people being removed from the voting registries (mostly illegally), so the turnout effect is going to be at least partially negated by scumbags violating people's constitutional rights in the hopes that they won't bring legal action.
I haven't seen anything other than vague speculation on that point in news articles. I've heard a lot of rumors about people being taken off voter rolls, but Democrats are going to have lawyers are thousands of polling places, and if someone has a problem, Dems will make a stink of it immediately. I know here in Michigan there was a concern that thousands of people in foreclosed homes would be taken off the registries, but the Secretary of State said that everyone gets to vote.
If you can point me to a substantive article that includes actual states and numbers of people being removed, then I'll be concerned, but all I've read are a bunch of hearsay rumors.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Safe Dem: VA, NM, CO, NH Leaning Dem: NC, OR Dead Heat: AK, MN, MS2, GA Leaning GOP: 5-10 Lead for GOP but in striking distance: TX, KY
A side note on the "Dead Heat" races is that Alaska and Minnesota are both leaning Democratic, but by such a slim margin that I still call them dead heats. Recent polling in Minnesota have marked a drastic shift away from Norm Coleman to Al Franken. The race in Alaska has really narrowed, and likely won't be decided until Stevens' trial is done, if then. Mississippi/2 has recently closed to a dead heat as well, with Musgrove polling within the margin of error. The most recent poll has Musgrove within 2 points, and that was taken more than two weeks ago. Considering the narrowing, he could even be ahead by now, but polls aren't flying out of Mississippi at the moment.
Georgia has tightened, with recent polling calling it a literal tie, or putting it within the margin of error. Democrats will have to sink a lot of money into the state very quickly to move the numbers more than events and push Martin over the top, but it's looking good for a potential 9th seat pickup.
Kentucky has tightened a little bit, as has Texas, but not enough to really make much of a difference. When exactly three weeks to go until election day, a lot can happen, but Senate races tend not to move as violently in the polls as Presidential races do, in part because of the money involved, and the news coverage. People aren't as hypersensitive about it.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Looking at Louisiana's numbers, I pleasantly surprised to see Mary Landrieu in the lead. I'm too much of a cynic to get excited about ANY politician coming out of Louisiana, but she scores points with me simply for being a Democrat and if her opponent's ads are to be believed, she's voted with Obama 81% of the time.
But I've been worried because Kennedy is pulling out the "values voters" card which plays well with Southern conservatives. Jindal's election as governor means politicians can still win here simply on the "sanctity of marriage" argument without having to discuss relevant issues like the economy.
Posts: 1733 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Landrieu was only really in trouble a few months ago, but since August her numbers have consistently been pretty far ahead of Kennedy's. Her and Lautenberg were really the only ones on the Democratic side that were in any sort of trouble, and lately their numbers have pushed them out of the danger zone.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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I wonder if there would be any shift in momentum if the press went after Mahoney like they did with Foley. There is almost no interest in this Democrat scandal... Mahoney tied to $121K sex scandal Posts: 1918 | Registered: Mar 2005
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There's a good amount of interest in his district, I hear. Also, that sort of sex scandal (an affair with payments) is, sadly, normal. It is also between consenting adults. Foley's scandal was about children he held a position of authority over, which is rather worse.
Posts: 15770 | Registered: Dec 2001
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Ah, I forgot the double standard for Dems and Repubs and how the definition of a child includes over 18 males. This should be a huge story. From the article
quote: The congressman – who promised to restore honor and morality in a district rocked by revelations of Foley’s inappropriate behavior toward House pages – reportedly moved the 50-year-old Allen from a job in his office to a $50,000 position with an agency that handles his campaign advertising.
If this was a Republican there would be wall to wall coverage on "Another Republican Scandal" and how Republicans run on morals but look how morally bankrupt they are.
Posts: 1918 | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
There are Republican affairs scandals that don't make much attention in the news all the time.
And the sexually suggestive emails were with pages under 18. You're recalling things incorrectly in your effort to create a case for partisanship. Have you considered looking with a similar degree of criticality at your own motivations?
You're also ignoring the dynamics of the news cycle. The news has lots to talk about right now that is far more gripping to the everyday person. There's no need to presuppose partisanship.
Posts: 15770 | Registered: Dec 2001
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posted
If for no other reason, the story is slightly more interesting than your average adulterous sex scandal because Mahoney actually asked the state legislative ethics board to conduct an investigation into his activities. If he really thinks he did something wrong, that's a pretty weird bluff to put up. But hey, maybe he'll do what Sarah Palin did and call for an ethics investigation and then try as hard as possible to stonewall the entire affair, label it a partisan smear fest, and refuse to cooperate, regardless of the fact that it was her idea to begin with.
Either way, sex scandals in politics aren't new. It's really only headline news these days when it's a gay sex scandal, or in the case of Foley, and child sex scandal.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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The first I heard about this was when the head of the House--Senator Pelosi-Dem--asked for a complete and bipartisan ethics investigation.
She said it loud and clear, no cover up, no wrist slapping. I find very little to fault Democrats here.
The press has gone after the story. But what you are wanting is the same attention Foley got after weeks of investigation, when the story is still new. Remember when Senator Foley was first arrested and pleaded guilty, it didn't make the national news.
The only fault I can see with the press is that when the story broke they didn't label the Senator by party. I had to look up to see if he was a Democrat or Republican.
Posts: 1941 | Registered: Feb 2003
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A quick note on the subject of sex scandals and party affiliation: I think if you did an examination of the number of minutes or pages devoted to sex scandals you might find Republican scandals more heavily brought up, but frankly I think there's a reason why, and it makes perfect sense: Hypocrisy. Republicans spend night and day harping on family values and then a slew of sex scandals hit and it's magnified. Plus, Republicans spend so much time villifying Democrats for having no values that when a sex scandal comes along, it doesn't have nearly the same furor behind it; Republicans have already desensitived the American public to Democratic sex scandals (you can thank a Republican Congressional investigation of Clinton for part of that). I think the story behind the story here is that Republicans have sort of made their own bed here, and if they want to keep their faces out of the news, they should stop having adulterous (or worse), gay, underage sex in that bed. You can't claim to be the party of moral values and then act the same way as your stated villain. Not if you expect to be taken seriously.
Safe Dem: VA, NM, CO, NH Leaning Dem: NC, OR Dead Heat: AK, MN, MS2, GA Leaning GOP: KY 5-10 Lead for GOP but in striking distance: TX
Not a whole lot of movement. North Carolina is been steady with a slight lead for Hagan, and Oregon had three recent polls out, two showing Merkley with a nice little 5-6 point lead, and one showing a tie. Remember Oregon is the state where the Republican incumbent ran ads showing how well he worked with Obama in Congress.
Alaska has remained a dead heat with a lot of back and forth (possibly due to Stevens' trial or people's genuine mind changing). Minnesota shows slow movement towards Franken, but it's slowing down. MS2 shows a now very, very tight race, with yet another movement towards Democrats that leaves GOP Senator Wicker with only a one point lead. His consant downward spiral suggets that the next poll could show Ronnie Musgrove winning for the first time.
Polling in Georgia has Saxby Chambliss with a two and three point lead in recent polls. I don't think they are sampling the black vote enough though. I'm not sure about the numbers in Mississippi, but in Georgia, I still think that downticket bumps from Obama will give Jim Martin a 3 or 4 point bump that he otherwise wouldn't have gotten.
The senate race in Kentucky is ever narrowing for minority leader McConnell. His 13 point lead a month ago has shrunk to a 4 point lead today, which moves his race to "Lean GOP" as far as I'm concerned.
That's all for today. There are 15 days left in the election. I might not be around on election night to do the kind of coverage that I did for the Midterms two years ago. My brother wants me to come to a bar downtown to watch with some other people, which sounds great, but I kind of like staying home with my internet access and a lot of result data that CNN generally doesn't display on TV like statewide Props, House races and sometimes even senate races. If I'm not around on Election Night, it'd be cool if someone else could see to it to point out the results coming in on the Senate races, as people might forget that in the midst of the Presidential hooplah.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Really coming down to it now. 11 days left, and another update from 538.
Safe Dem: VA, NM, CO, NH Leaning Dem: NC, OR Dead Heat (D): AK, MN Dead Heat (R): MS2, GA Leaning GOP: KY
Alaska remains a dead heat, and in fact has tightened to even more of a dead heat. I still think, like many do, that this race will be decided by the fate of Ted Stephens' trial. If he's convicted, he loses (in more ways than one), if he's aquitted, he'll get the bump he needs to beat Begich. There are some irregularities with the trial, or rather the deliberations, but they should be done well before the actual election.
Georgia may not have had any particular good news for Jim Martin, but Obama is ahead in Georgia in one recent poll for the first time ever. If his downticket bump can help Martin, it could be enough to overcome the polling gap. Early voting is underway now in Georgia, and there have been a few problems reported. Already turnout is expected to break records.
Kentucky may be close to dead heat status. Polls are tightening despite an underfunded and somewhat poorly run campaign from Bruce Lunsford. He's tied in a recent poll with McConnell for the first time. Obama's downticket bump won't help Lunsford anywhere near as much as it'll help in Georgia and Mississippi, if at all. He'll have to win it mostly off of anti-Republican anti-incumbent dissatisfaction with McConnell.
No big change in Minnesota. Most recent polls tend to give Franken pretty good numbers here, and only recent poll has Coleman ahead. There haven't been any new polls in Mississippi, but last we looked Wicker is only up a point.
No other big changes elsewhere, except I'm taking away the longshot category. Texas has moved up into the same category as Nebraska: Longshot that could have been that is now out of reach. I'm also splitting up the dead heat category in a way closer to what 538 does by showing you which way they tilt. Nate Silver I think gives both MS/2 and GA too much credit.
Remember, as always the magic number is 9, the Lieberman number is 10, and the only seats being tracked here are Republican seats in danger of flipping. If the seats that are safe, leaning and tilting towards Dem pan out, they need one of KY, GA and MS/2 to swing over as well.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
538 update with a week to go. It's the homestretch.
Safe Dem: VA, NM, CO, NH Leaning Dem: NC, OR, AK Dead Heat (D): MN Dead Heat (R): MS2, GA, KY
I moved Kentucky over to the dead heat category as the race has closed to just a few points. Likewise I have moved Ted Stevens to the leaning Dem category in the wake of his conviction. I'll change that when new polls come out and can reevaluate where he should be. I think 58-59 seats is looking like a real likelihood now for Democrats. That last seat will count on a breakthrough in one of those last three states.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Safe Dem: VA, NM, CO Leaning Dem: NC, OR, AK, NH Dead Heat (D): MN Dead Heat (R): MS2, GA Leaning GOP: KY
I'm moving Kentucky back into Leaning territory. It's a 5-7 point lead without the Obama coattails that other southern candidates are banking on. Kentucky isn't going to go for Obama, and Obama isn't going to bring enough voters over to get Bruce Lunsford over the top of the Senate Majority Leader.
It looks like MS is moving away from the Dems, but I still think GA is going to be a nail biter on election night. They need all their other pieces to fall into place, but GA could be the final nail in the coffin.
I agree with Nate Silver about what the nailbiters are going to be on election night. North Carolina, Minnesota and Georgia. The problem with Mississippi is that party affiliation isn't on the ballots, which means people wanting to vote straight ticket for Obama and the Democrats aren't going to know that Ronnie Musgrove is the Democratic candidate. It'll lessen his bump there.
With the way it's looking now, I think they'll pick up about 8 seats. Dems are going to have 59 seats with the two Independents voting with them, and with a lot of liberal Republican senators (I'm looking at you Maine) who'll cross lines a lot to vote with them.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Looks like Dems have picked up about 20 House seats, and thus far, five Senate seats to get them to 56. Four are still up for grabs.
It looks like Georgia is headed for a special run off election in December after all. Martin has a long hill to climb. Chambliss will probably get a lot of those Libertarian votes (if they vote at all), but Martin is going to get some serious party machinery working for him, and probably a lot of Obama campaign stops now that the General is over. He'll get the A team. If he can't do it with those kinds of resources, then he doesn't deserve to win.
Minnesota is headed for a recount. Despite Coleman's nearly 600 vote win, and his attempts to guilt Franken into conceding, less than .5% win means recount, and it's way below that. It's actually below .05% I think. So that will go to a recount later this month and we'll see what happens. They'll look at same day registrations and provisional ballots, as well as a lot of absentees. 600 votes is doable. If it had been 6,000, it would have been way out of reach.
And the results in Alaska and Oregon have yet to be certified. Somehow Ted Stevens is still ahead by 4,000 votes with 99% reporting, which I don't think Begich can make up. In Oregon, Merkley(D) is ahead of incumbent Smith(R) by almost 8,000 votes with 78% of the vote in.
So 56 for the Dems at least. Could they get all four left? Maybe, but unlikely. Alaska is somehow going to stay Republican it looks like, and barring a recount surprise, Minnesota as well. Oregon might go, and Martin could pull out a win in Georgia in December, which would bring Dems to 58. Regardless they have a stronger hand, but not an all powerful one. Democrats in Congress will still have to play bridgemaker to get legislation passed.
I'll have more updates in the coming days and weeks as the stories unfold more.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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There are still three outstanding Senate races. Democrats took Oregon with Jeff Merkley which brings them up to 57 with the two independents.
There's a little kerfuffle going on right now with Joe Lieberman. Mitch McConnell is trying to woo him over to the Republicans, and Reid took away his Chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee and instead offered him I think Veteran's Affairs. He said that was "unacceptable." There seem to be competing ideas on whether or not he'll jump ship or not. In the face of what he did during the campaign, I think demoting his Chairmanship is probably reasonable, but kicking him out of the caucus would have been a mistake. Likewise, I think his threat is pretty silly. Is he really going to vote against something he would have voted for out of spite? It'll hurt his reelection chances in a reliably Democratic state in 4 years. Anyway, I can't imagine he switches sides. He has almost no leverage, and his threat is somewhat empty. Besides, seniority and at least ONE committee chairmanship is a lot better than being a backbencher on the Republican side of things. After stabbing your party and your current party's leader in the back at the Republican national convention, don't you think he's been treated rather fairly in return? Throwing a hissy fit about it won't help. I think he'll stay, but people are unpredictable.
That leaves three Senate races. Georgia is headed for a special election in December that I suspect could be a nailbiter. Despite the fact that Jim Martin lost by a fairly large margin, and there's no way to know where Barr's votes will go, Martin will get the A game from the DNC and especially, from a newly empowered President-elect Obama to help boost him up. He'll likely have unlimited funds and serious ground game power. It'll be a tight race.
Minnesota is now down to a 220 vote difference, and even that might change. 538 did a breakdown of how they thing this thing could go, and they actually gave Franken a halfway decent chance of winning since the number to make up isn't too bad. Recount rarely garner that many flipped votes, but the margin here is tiny, and apparently when they actually hand count these things, they find a ton of little errors that the machines miss. Call it maybe a 50/50 shot of Franken actually overtaking him, and even better than that if the margin shrinks any more than it has. Fox News is already claiming that Democrats in some districts are trying to swing the race to Franken. Some of their claims actually look like valid questions, like why these couple of Democratic leaning districts have such dramatic changes after the election is over that far outpace any other precinct. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about it. The recount will begin at the end of November, and we should know by the middle of December what the result is.
And that leaves Alaska. Ted Stevens is ahead by I think 3,200 votes, but there are 10's of thousands of early votes, absentee ballots and provisional ballots that still need to be counted and sorted through. Given the extreme slant towards Democrats in early voting this election cycle, that would seem to favor Begich, despite the fact that Stevens' spokespeople were saying that Stevens in fact had the edge in early voting. Counts done so far on early votes seem to back up the national trend, with Begich taking a 60/40 split of the early votes being counted. In other words, Begich actually still has a chance to pull out a win in Alaska.
So, is there a path to 60 votes for the Democrats? Yes, but it's a rocky path, and at the end of the day it might not really matter that much. Any particular issue is going to cause some Democrats, like Byron in North Dakota, to jump ship and side with a fillibuster if they feel the need to protect a conservative base, or for that matter if the issue has particular consequences for their state. Cloture votes on tough issues are ad hoc alliances, not votes along party lines. As such, getting to 60 is important, and would be if nothing else a psychological milestone, but it won't mean the wielding of absolute power. As it is, Democrats are going to have to do a little coalition building to escape a fillibuster on most major issues.
I'm hesitant to post any kind of preview for the 2010 Midterm elections. They are still two years away, but could have a huge impact on the last two years of Obama's first term. 35 seats will be up for election in 2010. Like this year, there is a slight edge for Democrats, in that 19 Republican seats will be up, and 16 for the Democrats. One of those elections will be a special election for Deleware, as Joe Biden's replacement will have to either be elected in his/her own right, or be replaced.
538 has a breakdown of some of the lesser important less contest races, but they'll be releasing more comprehensive breakdowns of the more hotly contested ones in the weeks to come.
I'm not going to go anywhere near a serious breakdown of this election this far in advance, but there are some potentially interesting races. Governor Schwarzeneggar in California will be term limited, and might run against Barbara Boxer in what would be a battle of titans out west. Boxer is extremely popular and for that matter, very powerful, and Arnold is maybe the most popular moderate Republican in the country. It's hard to say how he'd vote without a Democratic state legislature holding his feet to the fire on a number of issues however. It's still speculative, but it's interesting. John McCain, if he runs for reelection, could face a primary challenge, and a serious fight from Gov. Janet Nepalitano, a very popular figure in Arizona, a state that has been trending Democrat for awhile, and most especially noted in election returns this year. Arizona would join a recent trend of the west sending Democrats to the Senate to replace Republicans.
In all there could be a dozen or more really interesting races. Typically the sitting president's party has a lot of problems in the midterms. Recent history has been mixed on the trend. In 1994, the Democrats were ushered out of power in a huge Republican landslide. 1998 was almost a wash, with a slight Democratic comeback. 2002 saw slight gains for the Republicans, which bucked the trend, and of course 2006 was a Democratic tidal wave that brought them back to power. So what does it come down to? Political types like to call the midterms a referendum on the sitting president's policies and accomplishments. So if Obama does well in his first two years, expect more Democratic gains, if not, expect some backsliding. He'll be helped by the fact that more Republican seats are considered vulnerable than Democratic, which gives the Dems a better shot at capturing a more powerful majority, which could have big implications for the 2012 elections.
More later as I get updates and info, both on the remaining Senate elections and on 2010, though it'll probably be a good year from now before I do serious breakdowns, if I even do them then.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:They'll look at same day registrations and provisional ballots, as well as a lot of absentees.
Just a slight correction -- same day registrations vote like anyone else in Minnesota, with their ballots fed into the optical scan machine. There is no indication on the ballot that it is a same day registrant, and they are not held out like the provisional or absentee ballots.
Posts: 7954 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
Well wait it a minute, it was a decent quality thread before you posted here, but does your tagging of my fairly qualified thread actually lower its quality just because you said it, or does it just make your statement true?
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Unicorn Feelings: I am posting in this high quality thread.
this is as funny as when n/t was coopted by people who didn't even know what it meant
PS don't crap up this thread hoss
/edit -- every time I go back and look at 538 and remember my time in Musgrave's district, I am again astounded that she got thrown out on her heels.
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
Minnesota's vote discrepancy is now down to 206 votes between Franken and Coleman. Franken's chances of winning a recount are growing, but there are still a lot of factors to be weighed in making any kind of determination.
Alaska still has thousands of votes to be counted.
Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss have already begun campaigning for the December 2nd special election.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
In Alaska, Stevens' 3,200 vote lead over Mark Begich shrank yesterday to just under 1,000 votes, and as of right now, has evaporated completely. Begich is now just three votes ahead of Stevens.
It's starting to look like Begich could/might be the 58th Democratic senator. There were still 90,000 votes to count as of a couple days ago, and at least 30,000 of them have been counted. If the Begich friendly wave continues, a win looks likely.
Despite the news saying otherwise, there DOES appear to still be a path to 60 seats for the Democrats before the end of the year, but it's a narrow path, and as I've said before, getting to 60 seats is nice and all, but in reality the number isn't super significant. Getting rid of Chambliss and Stevens will be nice, but Coleman is a moderate Republican, as was the now defeated Gordon Smith of Oregon, who likely could have been brought on board a bipartisan coalition on a number of issues that would have resulted in him voting for a cloture motion. There are still a few moderate Republicans that will do the same, and some right leaning or issue oriented Democrats who would sustain a filibuster. Reid doesn't have any more an iron grip over his caucus than Pelosi does over hers. Obama might help shore that up some, as he plays well with others but it remains to be seen exactly how this new Congressional dynamic will really work itself out.
I might revive the Congressional News Thread when the next Congress starts, as it's going to be extremely interesting to follow what sort of legislative agenda they roll out now that they have a much freer hand.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Begich is now up 814 votes, with the final count expected to roll in around Friday. Despite what you might be hearing from CNN and Sarah Palin, it looks like Begich, and not Stevens, is now the favorite to win the seat. The votes remaining to be counted are considered to be from rural regions more friendly to Begich, and thus his lead is only expected to grow during the day.
Looks like talk of whether or not Stevens will resign, and who will replace him, may become moot by the weekend.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Ted Stevens has conceded the election to Mark Begich.
Democrats now stand at 58, with the Minnesota recount already underway, and the election in Georgia about two weeks away.
Analysts are giving Franken a 50/50 shot in the recount, and way less than even money to Jim Martin. So 58 for sure, 59 maybe, 60 unlikely but possible. Georgia will all be about the GOTV effort.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Last time I heard it looked like Franken was definitely loosing. Of course, the last time I heard was election night.
Posts: 1287 | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
He has about 200 votes to make up in the recount, which will be done sometime in December. It's a laborious process.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Because all of the couple hundred thousand votes have to be hand counted by multiple people, and each ballot must then by double checked by a Republican and Democratic poll checker, and then by a state representative, but any ballot disputed by any of those people has to go into a separate pile to be sorted out by a judge.
The whole thing has to do with undervotes, and with misvotes, from people who didn't correctly fill out the little bubble on their ballot but still made some other kind of signifying mark. Historically undervotes favor Democrats, which is why Franken is considered something of a favorite, but it depends on how many recounted ballots end up having undervotes on them. There are also unrecorded votes.
538 had a big breakdown of how the recount works a week or two ago, I'd check there. It's too complicated to try and describe from memory.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
If I'm not mistaken, it's because they're going to have to recount it by hand because they're including rejected ballots that the machines didn't read.
Posts: 1831 | Registered: Jan 2003
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quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: Ted Stevens has conceded the election to Mark Begich.
Heard this on NPR today.
My jubilation isn't about the widening Democratic majority, but about this race. Whatever happens with his appeal, at least we won't have to deal with felonious "Uncle Ted" and his series of tubes.
Posts: 3826 | Registered: May 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: Ted Stevens has conceded the election to Mark Begich.
Heard this on NPR today.
My jubilation isn't about the widening Democratic majority, but about this race. Whatever happens with his appeal, at least we won't have to deal with felonious "Uncle Ted" and his series of tubes.
You know, I'll be honest. When you think of his comment that the internet is like a series of tubes, it's not a bad simile. I don't know why the media pounced on it as if Stevens actually thinks the internet is a bunch of tubes that tie computers together.
edit: But amen to a felon not being permitted to hold the office. I don't blame him for waiting for the results to come in first, but I would have hoped had he been elected that he would resign. Of course then Palin would be selecting the next senator.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
Frankly I DO think that he thinks it's a literal series of tubes. The way he said it doesn't lead me to believe that he was using a metaphor, though it actually wouldn't be a bad metaphor.
I'd say it's on par with the criticsm Gore gets for 'creating the internet.'
Both have a kernel of truth, and both get hyped way too much.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Oh, and to update on the Franken/Coleman recount:
On the first day, Coleman and Franken actually lost some votes because of challenges. Each side is allowed to challenge ballots on the other side that all must go to the state canvassing board when the whole thing is over and they'll be looked at individually. There could be thousands of them.
It would appear that just under 20% of all ballots have been recounted, and that Franken has a net gain of 43 votes over Coleman. This includes the total number gained and the number of votes actually lost due to challenges (Colemand has challenged more than Franken). In the end these challeneged votes WILL be instrumental in deciding the winner, but they are often frivolous charges, and thus the candidate who charges less and still has a lead could likely be the winner.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: You know, I'll be honest. When you think of his comment that the internet is like a series of tubes, it's not a bad simile.
It's not- but I don't particularly want someone who confuses bad local network design with Internet traffic problems, or refers to e-mails as "Internets", to be in charge of legislation of the Internet, either.
Posts: 3826 | Registered: May 2005
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