posted
Yet people get elected, and who gets elected is often determined by the popular opinion. If no one's vote had any impact, historical election results would not be like what they have been.
That every person's vote has extremely little impact does not mean it has no impact. Things do add up. Not voting has no marginal effect (except in very rare cases), but that does not mean it has no effect.
Posts: 15770 | Registered: Dec 2001
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I stand corrected. While most of our votes have essentially zero power over the course of the election, a few of us might have as much as a 1 in 10,000,000 chance of altering the course of the election.
I can feel the power.
Posts: 3950 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
A one in ten thousandth chance of altering the election significantly by just that vote.
Every vote has a one hundred percent chance of having some small effect on the election, though the size of the effect varies by the context.
Posts: 15770 | Registered: Dec 2001
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posted
Yep, just mis-typed the ten million. And the only reason those look like zero is because they're infinitesimal next to the one in ten million.
And you're still not understanding.
That's the chance that your vote alters the election considerably (by swaying the electoral college totals) simply by its presence or absence.
This doesn't mean other votes have no effect, just that they have very small effects that add up. If they had no effect, no one would ever be elected through people voting for the person.
Posts: 15770 | Registered: Dec 2001
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posted
It should be a pretty tough election for my congressman- he needs every vote he can get. So, for that election, I feel like my vote matters.
Posts: 2223 | Registered: Mar 2008
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posted
I'm not suggesting that no votes make a difference. I'm just suggesting that any one particular vote makes no difference. Any one of us could vote or not vote, and the outcome of the election would not change.
In fact, I would bet $10,000 that if every active member of Hatrack voted for the same candidate, not only would it not change the outcome of the election, it wouldn't even be noticeable as any kind of aberration from expected outcome.
Anyone who thinks his vote is powerful is fooling himself. A single vote has no power to alter the election. No matter how badly you want your vote to do something, it doesn't.
Throw a grain of sand at a 747 taking off and see if you make it stop. Yes, the impact of that grain of sand is a measurable effect, but it's entirely meaningless, just like one vote.
Posts: 3950 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
Wow. I have previously been an election day voter. I live in a pretty politically engaged town, but it has never taken me more than 15 minutes to vote here. I decided that turnout would be high, so I voted early today. (Also, I didn't want to risk getting hit by a bus and not be able to vote.)
I waited in line for an hour and a quarter. The folks who were arriving as I was leaving probably had a two hour wait ahead of them. There has been unprecedented early voting here. Either everyone has decided to vote early, or the turnout this year is going to be phenomenal.
Posts: 11187 | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
Your vote is much more powerful the closer the issue is to home. County judges, sheriffs, mayors, local propositions sometimes come down to a few votes...
Posts: 571 | Registered: Mar 2001
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posted
MightyCow, your vote does count. If everyone believed that their vote didn't count and did not vote, that would definitely count. Posts: 1574 | Registered: May 2008
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posted
I voted! An hour and half in line on the last day of Louisiana early voting.
My mom and I voted for Obama. My dad, after resisting to tell us his choice in the weeks leading up to the vote, revealed his decision to go with McCain over dinner. He doesn't like McCain but my dad is the ultimate capitalist and is content to vote for the Republicans even though he admits that the party is a long way from its old "hands off" approach to governing.
So he canceled my mom and my vote was no doubt canceled out by a ridiculous number of friends and classmates who still believe Obama is a Muslim. I'm still dumbstruck after finally getting some of them to come clean about their opinion of Obama. These are educated people, some of them I know read the Koran with me in college. *sigh*
Atleast the voting site was just a few blocks from the local democratic office and so we dropped by to get a new yard sign (ours was stolen within two days of going up) and got the information on the Obama party tomorrow.
Posts: 1733 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
I figured that by voting early, I was going to be one fewer person clogging up the lines for people who can't vote early.
Posts: 11187 | Registered: Sep 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Elmer's Glue: If you don't find anything stupid about that you are a lost cause.
Hey, thanks for the random, unsupported insults. It really makes me care about your worthless opinion.
quote:Originally posted by T:man: MightyCow, your vote does count. If everyone believed that their vote didn't count and did not vote, that would definitely count.
So what you really mean is that my vote ONLY counts if hundreds of thousands of other people, who I have not control over, act in a specific way.
Posts: 3950 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
No, your vote only has more than a small impact on the outcome of the election if thousands of people don't act in a specific way. This is not the same as not counting, merely the same as having no marginal effect.
If your argument were correct, nobody's votes would count. However, people do get elected in accordance with having the most votes, therefore votes must count (or "counting" must mean something other than having an effect on the election). Which premise or logical step do you disagree with?
Marginal analysis is not the only way to quantify impact.
Posts: 15770 | Registered: Dec 2001
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fugu13: I agree with the obvious point that large groups of votes count. I still stand by the fact that any single vote does not count.
Unless the election is decided by a single vote, then no single vote counts. I could vote or not, and the outcome would not change, therefore, my vote has no real power.
A single vote may have some sort of imaginary power that can be calculated by probability or fancy math, but in the real world, it is meaningless.
Posts: 3950 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
I mailed in my absentee ballot last night. So my vote is no set in stone so to speak.
I hope nothing happens during the next few days to make me change my mind. Of course, I find it hard to imagine voting for McCain no matter what but if there were some major last minute surprise I might switch my vote to third party.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
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posted
Everyone's been asking me why I don't vote early.
My answer: there's still a campaign going on. Ample opportunity for the person that would be my choice to screw things up.
For example, I send a vote in for candidate "A". Next day, candidate "A" says or does something so blunderously stupid ("Hi! I'm Candidate A and I eat babies!" *CHOMP!*) that makes me and a vast majority of people not want him anymore. But... but... I already voted! Oh noes! The baby eating moron's going to win and there's nothing I can do about it!
Come to think of it, I *am* in Florida. Guess I can just vote again, right?
Posts: 3486 | Registered: Sep 2002
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posted
I voted! Only 15 minutes. If after this many months of campaigning, we haven't learned about a candidates baby eating tendencies, are we really going to learn about them in the next few days?
I vote because I want to minimize the percentage by which the other guy wins. I know my guy isn't going to win, but if it is close atleast, maybe they won't assume everyone agrees with them.
Posts: 2223 | Registered: Mar 2008
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posted
I'm concerned about whether absentee ballots will ever actually be counted. In many cases, absentee ballots may not even be received before one candidate or the other concedes the election. In those cases, absentee ballots (even the ones received well in advance) never get counted.
Historically, this hasn't made much difference because a relatively small percent of voters cast absentee ballots and they do get counted if there is a recount which always happens if there is a very narrow margin. But now a very significant number of people are voting early or casting absentee ballots.
Two years ago in Utah, there were some very significant shifts in precincts during recounts because of the inclusion of absentee ballots. These shifts were big enough to conclude that there is a selection bias if you exclude early and absentee ballots. (Either that or there are some major bugs in the touch screen machines). I'd really like to know how and whether this is being dealt with in different places and the impact it might have on early returns.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
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posted
As many as a third of the electorate is voting early this year. I'm not sure what the split is between absentee and early voting in person, but it's still tens of millions of people.
With the possible exception of military ballots, all absentee ballots have to be received by election day or they don't count. At least that's how it works here. If you don't get it in the mail in time, it's your own fault.
I think they should all be counted, for a couple reasons. Simple fairness is one. If someone votes, it should count, regardless. Also, if a district has 30,000 absentee ballots and they're all for one guy but aren't counted because he lost by 30,001 vote, that's ridiculous. It could be that he only lost by one vote, or a recount might find he actually won, but it's still not fair. The volume alone this year should make it necessary and unavoidable.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Here there are other options if you can't get it in the mail in time. You still have to get it there but you can
-drop it off in person at a polling place -have someone else drop it off for you (there's a place to authorize this on the back of the sample ballot) -fax it -if you lose your ballot or don't recieve it in time, you can go to the county website, print out a sample ballot, fill it out, and print out a provisional ballot signature form and fax it or turn it in in person.
Posts: 21182 | Registered: Sep 2004
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quote:With the possible exception of military ballots, all absentee ballots have to be received by election day or they don't count. At least that's how it works here. If you don't get it in the mail in time, it's your own fault.
No. For all US citizens living oversees, ballots need only be postmarked before election day -- they do not have to be received before election day.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
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posted
I just finished voting at the county clerk's office. Election day is a state holiday here, so I don't have to work next Tuesday (woot!) but I work directly across the street from the county building, so I went with some co-workers after our Halloween breakfast potluck. Now I can be lazy on Tuesday.
I doubt my presidential vote will matter, since I don't live in a battleground state, but I have some strong opinions on some of our local candidates. So I felt good about voting for them.
Posts: 2069 | Registered: May 2001
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