posted
Caysedai linked to the PBS site which includes a timeline. The first thing on the timeline is
quote: At Fort Riley, Kansas, an Army private reports to the camp hospital just before breakfast on March 11 complaining of fever, sore throat, and headache. He was quickly followed by another soldier with similar complaints. By noon, the camp's hospital had dealt with over 100 ill soldiers. By week's end that number jumped to 500.
So Kansas is the where the first case was identified. If it came from anywhere before that we don't know, but many of the new recruits were coming directly from family farms where they would have been exposed regularly to both poultry and livestock. The timeline shows pretty well how the disease was spread throughout the world.
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quote: I've never EVER had a problem getting a same day appointment with my physician for an acute illness.
Last time I had a bad sinus infection, I got an appointment three days from the day I called. Then the doctor was sick and they rescheduled me for a month from then. I probably should have thrown a bigger fit and tried to get them to get me in with one of the other doctors, but I canceled the appointment. It did eventually go away on its own.
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quote:However, a 2005 survey by the Commonwealth Fund of sick adults in six nations found that only 47% of U.S. patients could get a same- or next-day appointment for a medical problem, worse than every other country except Canada.
quote:...149...The latest death toll...announced...by Health Secretary...Córdova, who said that more than half of the 1,995 people admitted to hospitals...have been treated and released, while 776 remain hospitalized.
quote:One ray of good news is that the outbreak may be leveling off in Mexico...Mexican Health Minister...Cordova said that the number of new cases...had declined from 141 on Saturday to 119 on Sunday and 110 Monday.
posted
A local high school had students on a trip to Mexico, and today sent home eight of them who had symptoms. The symptoms are more like allergy symptoms, and probably have much more to do with pollen than with swine flu, but at least they are being cautious. Yet, I suspect it's more about placating anxious parents who don't want their kids to go to school with people who have just gotten back from Mexico.
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"The Los Angeles County coroner's office on Tuesday was investigating the recent deaths of two men for links to swine flu. If confirmed, the cases would be the first swine flu deaths in the United States."
"The CDC today confirmed 64 infections in five US states, although Indiana later reported its own case. Five of the patients were now in hospital, Mr Besser said - three in California and two in Texas. Their ages ranged from seven to 54."
"Swine Flu Suspected at Two More New York City Schools"
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posted
Didn't we already do swine flu, 30 some years ago? I remember having to get a vaccine for it.
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Yeah, and that flu disappeared faster than the vaccine was disseminated. Which left some people who had been vaccinated VERY unhappy, enough to win monetary settlements after their lawsuits were filed.
More than one kind of swine flu. Sufficient mutation upon the protein*coat changes an older form into a new variety which can bypass immunities developed against the old virus. The genes in this one appear to have avian flu characteristics mixed in with the swine and human flu portions.
* A change in the protein coat reflects a variation in the genetic structure.
posted
They're saying it's a type of Influenza A H1N1 (for the flu geeks out there) that is an assortated combination of flu genes from human flu, two different pig flus, and a bird flu.
Also, the CDC is recommending the masks for people who are caregivers to anyone with flulike illness, and for ill people themselves if they have to go in public for any reason (like a doctor visit). I've got a supply of good masks, a couple of hundred, in case it's needful.
The company sent out an email telling us all to read the pandemic plan, so we can keep the power on in case of a pandemic. Our current level of preparedness doesn't give me a whole lot of hope the power will stay on in the event of a bad pandemic, mainly because coal shipments will likely cease. The nuclear plants will be able to stay up, but that's only about 20% of our power. Hopefully there are good transmission and distribution plans that will allow that 20% to keep going. To be safe, we probably need to plan for the power and natural gas and even water to be out 3 - 6 weeks or so, for the worst case.
Best case is no outages due to mild illness and relatively few deaths.
I did go ahead and stock up on some plant-based whole foods that don't need refrigeration today. If the natural gas goes off, though, I'll have to gather firewood and make an outdoor hearth in which to cook them.
I like being prepared for the worst case, so I don't have to worry in any case. I'll just sail through without trouble, and be in a position to help my neighbors.
quote:Originally posted by Tatiana: They're saying it's a type of Influenza A H1N1 (for the flu geeks out there) that is an assortated combination of flu genes from human flu, two different pig flus, and a bird flu.
I suppose it is inevitable--but not unreasonable--that some people are asking if this new flu was genetically engineered in a laboratory, by some terrorist-minded person seeking to combine human flu, pig flu(s), and bird flu. If it is just an accident of nature, it is quite an accident!
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I don't know the exact mechanisms at work, but IIRC other flues have passed from birds to pigs to humans. So for the final virus to collect parts of other viruses along the way shouldn't be that surprising. In fact it should be expected.
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My boss threw out the "fact" that you can only catch this from actual pigs. As if anyone would be scared if that was the case.
I told him "I don't think that's true" but didn't throw any links at him (though I was tempted). He still thinks it is true, but I'd imagine he'll be corrected enough that he will realize he was mistaken.
Posts: 5656 | Registered: Oct 1999
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quote:Originally posted by Tatiana: They're saying it's a type of Influenza A H1N1 (for the flu geeks out there) that is an assortated combination of flu genes from human flu, two different pig flus, and a bird flu.
I suppose it is inevitable--but not unreasonable--that some people are asking if this new flu was genetically engineered in a laboratory, by some terrorist-minded person seeking to combine human flu, pig flu(s), and bird flu. If it is just an accident of nature, it is quite an accident!
Of course! Al Qaeda's advanced bio-scientists developedthe disease in order to attack their great enemy: Mexico! It makes so much sense. And they made it so it could travel from person to person so they could sneak it into the US (and, apparently, the Middle East)! I mean, a thinking man might have brought the infection to every major city in the US first to take out the America devils, but these are only Muslims we're talking about, after all. They can engineer an advanced virus, but Allah help them if they can find the right place to put it. I mean, look where they put SARS! Idiots!
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Hey, it seems that Congresswoman Bachman, while not blaming President Obama "find[s] it interesting that it was back in the 1970s that the swine flu broke out then under Democrat President Jimmy Carter."
Ummm...that was Republican President Ford.
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posted
Really, the news should only be reporting it when Bachman says something that isn't bat-shit crazy.
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Then why doesn't it happen more often? I never heard of polio combining with smallpox.
The influenza viruses are somewhat unusual in that they have a segmented genome. Some viruses do, but most don't. Since the virus is designed to readily come apart, when it comes apart in a host animal affected with more than one strain, it can be reassembled in a different way. This is called antigenic shift.
Influenza viruses (specifically, strains of Influenza A) have cleavage sites on the RNA at which host proteases (e.g., certain trypsin-like enzymes in pigs) act to cleave the virus, which then recombines or reassorts with other strains. This has been going on for hundreds of years, well before anyone on Earth had the knowledge or technology to design or deliberately manipulate viruses at the genetic level.
quote:Influenza A viruses have eight separate gene segments. The segmented genome allows influenza A viruses from different species to mix and create a new influenza A virus if viruses from two different species infect the same person or animal. For example, if a pig were infected with a human influenza A virus and an avian influenza A virus at the same time, the new replicating viruses could mix existing genetic information (reassortment) and produce a new virus that had most of the genes from the human virus, but a hemagglutinin and/or neuraminidase from the avian virus. The resulting new virus might then be able to infect humans and spread from person to person, but it would have surface proteins (hemagglutinin and/or neuraminidase) not previously seen in influenza viruses that infect humans.
Polio infects the nervous system directly, as does herpes, but influenza does not. Influenza has a genome that comes apart and is reassembled in host animals, but polio and herpes do not. This is just because different viruses have different structures and work in different ways. It is what makes them different viruses.
It looks like some other viruses (such as Ebola) undergo recombination, but they are not encountered on such a massive scale as the wildly infectious flu virus, so we don't hear much about them.
Posts: 14017 | Registered: May 2000
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The question I would like answered is, how many people die from Flu every year?
As far as I can see, the only difference between this flu and any other, besides the media scare mongering, is that it is new and we don't have a vaccine yet. But there is no reason to assume we won't have that vaccine by next flu season.
Yes, a new flu is spreading, and people have died. But people always die from flu, what I want to know is, how is this different than any other flu?
They interviewed a kid in Mexico that tested positive, and he said he wasn't even aware he had it. The worse he felt in the prior weeks was a mild cold.
The flu goes round every year, and in longer than I can remember, I've never caught it.
If you;re worried, simply carry some hand sanitizer around with you.
posted
The problem with the media crying wolf over and over like this is, eventually, as in the story, the wolf actually shows up and no one pays attention.
Posts: 7085 | Registered: Apr 2001
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posted
BlueWizard: the big deal is what happens if it this flu has a mutation that makes it spread more rapidly before we have good treatment. If that happens, the possible death toll suddenly jumps from tens of thousands to tens of millions.
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While the media is certainly blowing things up a bit, national reactions have generally been proportionate to the level of risk. Heck, I collaborate with one of the people the government tasked to project possible courses of a pandemic, and he thinks slightly stronger measures might be warranted.
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See, we were told by my biology professor that if we had ANY symptoms of flu(coughing, sneezing, fever) we should stay home from class, no matter what, and call a doctor. I had a nasty, nasty flu last quarter- I was in the ER twice- and I can tell you, staying home because you have a cough is NOT a good idea. I ended up failing a couple classes because I missed a week and a half of them, even though I made the work up. So... while the general national reaction might be proportional, educated, intelligent people ARE being (what I would consider) paranoid.
Posts: 1591 | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
Claudia, thanks for the explanation about the combine-a-bead nature of influenza viri.
I just saw that Egypt has ordered the destruction of all pigs. I guess that is not too hard to do in a nation that is predominantly Muslim, and regards Swine's flesh as unclean, similar to the way Jews do.
Here is an excerpt:
quote:CAIRO -- Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country Wednesday as a precaution against swine flu even though no cases have been reported here, infuriating farmers who blocked streets and stoned vehicles of Health Ministry workers who came to carry out the government's order.
I have heard health authorities assure everyone that people cannot get this new swine flu from pork products. But are swine an animal vector for the new swine flu or not?
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posted
No - it's not affecting pigs. Plus, (if they're going to panic) this strain is part human flu and bird flu as well - so why aren't they killing the chickens for good measure?
Posts: 1528 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:Originally posted by BlueWizard: Yes, a new flu is spreading, and people have died. But people always die from flu, what I want to know is, how is this different than any other flu? ... The flu goes round every year, and in longer than I can remember, I've never caught it.
Because influenza A is a combine-a-bead bugger, every so often, one of the new beads will be particularly virulent. This is especially a problem because most of the flu viruses we've been exposed to are primarily avian strains, and that is where the general population's partial immunity lies. When there is a radically new recombination, that partial immunity may not carry over well, or even at all.
When our bodies kind of recognize the flu virus as something to which one was exposed to before, the immune response is different. The symptoms are less, the infection lasts a shorter time, and we may be infectious ("shedding virus") for a shorter period of time. It's just easier for the body to deal with efficiently and effectively. But a radically different strain can present an essentially new challenge.
"All flus are the same" is a really bad and incorrect way to think about it.
---
Added:
quote:Originally posted by BlueWizard: The flugoes round every year, and in longer than I can remember, I've never caught it.
There is no single "flu." It's always a new flu, which is why the vaccination has to be mixed up new each year, and even then, it doesn't always match.
Some years it is a more similar flu to prior ones than others. This year it might not be very similar at all, and that can have very real consequences.
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First confirmed case here in Arizona. An 8 year old, but he's already showing signs of improvement. I just saw it on the local news.
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We should expect it to rapidly travel all over the globe. There aren't any good barriers to flu that's spread this far. In 1918 even remote villages far from civilization caught it, from mail delivery people, or whatever rare contact existed. So don't expect your area to stay flu-free.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
CT, I'm curious to know how concerned you are about this. After reading that New Scientist article, I'd classify myself as interested, but only slightly concerned (down from mildly worried before reading it).
Something that I don't think is addressed in the article (though maybe it was--I'm operating on far too little sleep here, and it's possible my memory is off) is that even in Mexico, where the mortality rate for this virus seems to be startlingly high, the number of reported cases is probably only a fraction of the total number of people infected. If I get the flu, I don't bother going to my doctor for it, because there really isn't a whole lot that they can do for me. Instead, I just stay home and wait it out. Only if my symptoms intensified to the point that the were scaring me would I bother going to the doctor.
Assuming that I'm not abnormal in this, it seems reasonable to think that the high percentage isn't as high as people think--yes, a high percentage of people with symptoms bad enough to seek physician assistance are dying in Mexico, but the people going to the doctor for this probably represent a fairly small percentage of the infected population. Of course, it's entirely possible that epidemiologists control for this sort of thing when making their estimates (maui babe? Any input?).
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Noemon I think you're absolutely right, but the big concern for me is not getting the flu and dying, but rather the social and economic impact that can come from a large percentage of the population being sick at one time. If only 20% of the firefighters in the city of Birmingham were out sick, it would cripple emergency services in the town. I'm sure that is not unique to Birmingham, but would be the case in any large city.
You would see deaths, not necessarily from swine flu, but from other problems because emergency services can't respond effectively. And, if the emergency rooms are clogged with people panicking because they have the sniffles (or even if they have a mild case of the flu) then the doctors and nurses there can't respond as quickly or as well to true emergencies. Millions of people get sick or injured every day with or without swine flu, and we need our resources from emergency services and hospitals to care for those people. If they're tied up either responding to swine flu, or if they are sick themselves, it makes things much harder.
Posts: 14428 | Registered: Aug 2001
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posted
I'm really struggling to get some perspective here. A big part of me feels like this is just another might-happen that the news is blowing way out of proportion. in effect, "crying wolf." On the other hand, there are definitely some credible medical agencies raising some warning flags here. So yeah, there's a new flu going around. A few people are getting sick, most of them seem to be recovering. I don't want to sound cold about it, but the death toll really doesn't strike me as being particularly frightening.
So, what is possible and what is LIKELY?
Posts: 2392 | Registered: Sep 2005
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Noemon, the issues is what has been reported. The actual amount of people infected is more than likely MUCH higher than what is being reported. If that is true (and it looks like it is) then the over all mortality rate isn't nearly as high as what is currently being reported.
Data collection is still being done, but I imagine we will see a decrease in the mortality rate now that it is in the US.
One of the concerns is also that it seems to be attacking (and killing) otherwise healthy people, which is atypical of flus. I think that we will also see that change( and it already is starting to), because one again it is a data collection error. Most of these cases are not being reported, and we are starting to receive reports of a number of milder cases that people survived.
Also, as the SF spreads, I imagine we will see it begin to grow in the typical "at risk" population. Right now those populations have been limited in their exposure (young children, elder people and people with compromised immune systems) compared to a normal flu virus. This will lower the infection rate of healthier populations, but may cause more fatalities. Right now we are seeing a disproportionate percent of healthier people being sick, but this will change.
It is POSSIBLE (but not probable) that this could mutate, and because a huge issue. What is likely is that this will be a bad flu, and possibly spread, but the mortality rate will even out, and if you are a healthy person who takes reasonable precautions(HAND WASH PEOPLE, 10-15 times a day....skip the masks and wash your hands!!!) you should be fine.
There will be social repercussions, and our economy will probably take another hit, but in the end we will probably be fine.
Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
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"...Egypt has ordered the destruction of all pigs."
Aporkalypse Now: "Not to have a negative effect on our [pork] industry, we decided to call it 'novel flu' from now on," European Union Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou said yesterday.
Book burnings to follow in order to prevent page-to-human transmission.
Posts: 8501 | Registered: Jul 2001
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posted
In Iowa, at least one TV station is referring to it at H1N1 flu instead of swine flu. Iowa is the top pork producing state (according to the Iowa Pork Producers website).
Maybe the government - or the Iowa Pork Producers - could run a contest for a catchier name that doesn't doesn't involve pork.
Posts: 2034 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
Well since it's a combination of pig, bird, and human strains why can't we just call it the "mystery meat flu?"
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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Belle, that's interesting; I hadn't considered that angle.
quote:Originally posted by Kwea: [QB] Noemon, the issues is what has been reported. The actual amount of people infected is more than likely MUCH higher than what is being reported. If that is true (and it looks like it is) then the over all mortality rate isn't nearly as high as what is currently being reported.
Yes, that's what I was saying. Or, you know, trying to say. I'm a bit of a zombie today, so it's entirely possible that I was less than clear.
As for coming up with a catchy name, it's too bad that term "chimera" is already used in medicine. If it weren't, it would be a good popular name for this one.
[Edit - how about "manticore flu"]
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