posted
It's clear you don't understand how predictions *work*, Ron-when you predict something will happen by such time and it doesn't, that prediction doesn't have a chance to be later proven right-it's already been wrong.
But listen, whatever you do, don't let this occasion of being hugely, comically wrong (a prediction multiple people here, whom you scorned for making it, made) lead to you reevaluate your thinking on politics or your own predictive ability.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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quote:As of Wednesday morning, 54% voted to change the island's status. As to the second question, 61% want statehood, 33% are for sovereign free association, and about 5.5% are for independence.
Those results are with nearly 96% of polling stations reported.
It's unlikely that last 4% will change the results, which means the referendum officially passes and Puerto Rico votes to become a state.
Polls had this at a dead heat going into tonight, so this is actually a tiny bit of a surprise. Independentists were pushing hard on the YES issue to try to keep the status quo because they knew it was rigged in favor of statehood (and it was).
Now I think it goes to Congress. If I read correctly, Congress can either use this vote as a pretext to admit them as a state, or, more likely, they'll order a second straight up or down vote to confirm the choice. It's not clear under those circumstances what would happen, but it's entirely possible they'll confirm the vote.
Then Congress has to decide whether or not to support the measure. And I have no idea which way they will go. The media isn't talking about this on the front page yet, and I'm not sure when or if they will.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Yeah, there's been literally zero commentary that I am aware of at the national level regarding opinions on Puerto Rico becoming a state. I think both parties will immediately evaluate whether allowing Puerto Rico to become a state benefits them, and start stumping/voting accordingly.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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Blayne Bradley
unregistered
posted
Which is funny, because all it means is that the Democrats just have to support it and the Republicans will automatically reject it; meaning PR will even if it leaned republican before, will rapidly shift Democrat and eventually enter as a Democratic state.
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quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: Which is funny, because all it means is that the Democrats just have to support it and the Republicans will automatically reject it; meaning PR will even if it leaned republican before, will rapidly shift Democrat and eventually enter as a Democratic state.
Not exactly. If Puerto Rico was reliably conservative, you would find Democrats arguing against it, I'm trying to think of the stupid lie they'd hide behind, but I can't think disingenuously very well.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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Blayne Bradley
unregistered
posted
But I can!
"PR shouldn't be a state yet because it isn't clear if this vote clearly and accurately reflects the PR people; they should have another vote to make sure."
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posted
It's been guessed from the start that that is probably exactly what Obama and Congress will say. And it's unclear that it wins a straight up or down referendum, which, to my mind, makes it a pretty good idea to hold one.
After that, Obama has said he'll support it. PR is a heavily socially conservative Catholic territory, which suggest rich ground for Republicans, despite the Hispanic problem.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: No Sam, Democracy only works when it is mainly the wise who vote, and fools stay home.
For someone who claims to understand and support democracy, you've made a flagrantly obtuse and worthlessly judgmental statement.
It's also demonstrably wrong.
Australia is a fine and functioning democracy. Their government is admirably functional. They are actually better than us in more than a number of ways and are not subject to the paralytic obstructionism and vehement partisanship that threatens to chronically stymie our legislature. In sum they represent a better approach to democracy than ours.
They have mandatory voting.
It hasn't gone wrong. It hasn't flooded the country with the 'fools' that apparently upend democracy and refuse to allow it to work.
It is a distinct and complete refutation of your elitist claim. If you want to valiantly hoist it up as yet another one of your predictions, then insofar as it is quantifiable as an actual prediction, it's wrong.
It was all wrong! Just like I guessed, you were wrong about pretty much everything. 56% of the popular vote? over 300 electoral votes? Romney will win Ohio and Pennsylvania and Michigan?
Yeah but gloating about that is less important than tackling your terrible notions about how your disappointment over this election only proves how right you are in who 'should' vote in order for democracy to 'work.'
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Darth_Mauve: Dear Mr. & Mr. Koch.
You can not buy our Government.
Thanks for spending your money on the effort. It sure helped the economy somehow.
Cynically yours.
Ms. Liberty
As a Kansan, I find your cynicism amusing. They did just fine here, pushing their agenda and their favorite candidates. There is no doubt in my mind who the most influential people in this state are, and that their money makes a big impact on issues.
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: I think both parties will immediately evaluate whether allowing Puerto Rico to become a state benefits them, and start stumping/voting accordingly.
This is sad, but probably true.
Posts: 1813 | Registered: Apr 2001
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posted
Good for Puerto Rico. I hope they are admitted into the Union without argument. They have been voting on this measure for years, and I think it is awesome they finally passed it.
And congratulations to President Obama as well. He wasn't my first choice, but I know he meant what he said last night in his acceptance speech. I hope Congress (both house and senate) will pull their heads out of their asses and start working together.
I think everyone sometimes we get too worked up over politics. I look on Facebook and see a ton of people spouting things like "RIP America" and "I should move to Texas before they leave the Union." Our nation has been around for over 200 years, and there will ALWAYS be decisions that you don't agree with. There have been some downright awful decisions made in this country before. The thing is, we always get through it and come out on top.
So even though I do not agree with some of Obama's policies, I do believe that he has America's best interests at heart.
Posts: 1937 | Registered: Nov 2006
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posted
Imagine my surprise, to see Ron not admitting that he missed HUGELY on virtually all of his predictions, as usual. But yeah, democracy would be improved if only delusional crackpots were allowed to vote.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Geraine: Good for Puerto Rico. I hope they are admitted into the Union without argument. They have been voting on this measure for years, and I think it is awesome they finally passed it.
And congratulations to President Obama as well. He wasn't my first choice, but I know he meant what he said last night in his acceptance speech. I hope Congress (both house and senate) will pull their heads out of their asses and start working together.
I think everyone sometimes we get too worked up over politics. I look on Facebook and see a ton of people spouting things like "RIP America" and "I should move to Texas before they leave the Union." Our nation has been around for over 200 years, and there will ALWAYS be decisions that you don't agree with. There have been some downright awful decisions made in this country before. The thing is, we always get through it and come out on top.
So even though I do not agree with some of Obama's policies, I do believe that he has America's best interests at heart.
quote:Originally posted by Geraine: And congratulations to President Obama as well. He wasn't my first choice, but I know he meant what he said last night in his acceptance speech.
Usually I am way way too jaded to get all swept up in ~patriotic speechification~ or whatever, but that was a hell of a speech, wannit?
He seemed like, genuinely juiced.
Hell, Romney did too. He seemed so happy. Legitimately personable. Elections these days must be such a grind that you're just riding an elated high at the end like that.
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
I thought Romney's concession speech was extremely weak, dispassionate, and paint-by-numbers. His one chance to act like a real human being and he still read that boring thing straight from the prompter. I'd like him so much more if he'd had a meltdown. Any sort of genuine moment from him would've been good.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
I feel that it was fairly genuine in appearances, I'm not disappointed in the lack of a meltdown.
I mean a good portion of the speech was either fluffing Ryan up for 2016 as designed ("I know now why you cry," says Romney to Ryan, "but it is something I can never do." He is then slowly lowered into the pool of molten metal.) or otherwise just really getting at issues of moving back to bipartisanship, which you can take and repeat endlessly to people in his party if they don't quite get where their ruthless obstructionism has gotten them.
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
I'm not disappointed in the lack of a meltdown in the slightest. I've just yet to see anything I'd consider 'real' from Romney. I still have no clue who the eff he is. I want him to do 60 Minutes in a few months and tell us honestly what he believes. Because it doesn't matter at this point and I'd like to know.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
I'm not disappointed in the lack of a meltdown in the slightest. I've just yet to see anything I'd consider 'real' from Romney. I still have no clue who the eff he is. I want him to do 60 Minutes in a few months and tell us honestly what he believes. Because it doesn't matter at this point and I'd like to know.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Geraine: And congratulations to President Obama as well. He wasn't my first choice, but I know he meant what he said last night in his acceptance speech.
Usually I am way way too jaded to get all swept up in ~patriotic speechification~ or whatever, but that was a hell of a speech, wannit?
He seemed like, genuinely juiced.
Hell, Romney did too. He seemed so happy. Legitimately personable. Elections these days must be such a grind that you're just riding an elated high at the end like that.
It was a really good speech. It reminded me a little of the speech he gave during the Democratic National Convention in 2004.
I thought Romney was a class act in his speech as well.
I was a little confused as to why Obama would invite Romney to the White House to discuss economic policy since he had just spent a year running negative ads against it, but hey, that is politics right? Perhaps Romney can give the President some pointers on how to get Congress to play nice. Posts: 1937 | Registered: Nov 2006
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quote:Originally posted by El JT de Spang: I'm not disappointed in the lack of a meltdown in the slightest. I've just yet to see anything I'd consider 'real' from Romney. I still have no clue who the eff he is. I want him to do 60 Minutes in a few months and tell us honestly what he believes. Because it doesn't matter at this point and I'd like to know.
Same here. I wonder if the 47 percent video was the closest we've come to seeing the real Romney, because he was speaking behind closed doors and presumably wasn't thinking about how the general public would take it. But I don't know if it was just a different facade for a different audience.
I came to the conclusion a while back that he doesn't have any real principles, at least politically. He just really, really wants to get elected.
Posts: 9945 | Registered: Sep 2002
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posted
Obama's victory speech was livestreamed, in its entirety, on mittromney.com last night. A classy gesture, I thought.
Posts: 7790 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
his ability to 'etch-a-sketch' was actually pretty much the reason why he rose to the top of the republican primary system. Without blatant dishonesty and the willing capacity to reinvent yourself dependent upon the audience, no candidate who can appeal to and stand good probability to win the republican primary can even remotely hope to appeal to and win the general election (see: santorum) and no candidate who can appeal to and stand good probability to win the general election can even remotely hope to appeal to and win the republican primary (see: huntsman).
The GOP is so completely broken right now that their only hope left to the presidency comes in the form of expert and callous mendacity — a person who can expertly play its own primary and then turn around and run a completely different platform for the general election.
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Chris Bridges: Obama's victory speech was livestreamed, in its entirety, on mittromney.com last night. A classy gesture, I thought.
posted
Was anyone really surprised that Obama won? I ask because a few of my older family members genuinely believed that Romney was going to win (and have been saying so for like 6 months).
And then the election ends up being a "landslide", and they act like it's this huge surprise. I never believed Romney stood a chance, personally, but that's me. Did any of you?
Posts: 1324 | Registered: Feb 2011
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posted
The polls and 'news' stations on the right side have been running sleight of hand games for months, making it appear like it was a close race. So, if that's where you get your information I can see it being a surprise.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
Depends on whether you swallowed the MSM liberal bias story. A lot of people were convinced (by Fox and other conservative outlets) that the polling was all skewed democrat because of liberal bias and/or unrealistic weightings. Even the non-conservative outlets were pretending it was neck & neck.
Posts: 3275 | Registered: May 2007
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posted
Though I certainly saw a lot more conservative news outlets saying Romney would win, I honestly thought that it was pretty much across the board fantasy we were in a nail-biter. Everyone knew what their audience needed to hear if they were to tune in again and then just said that. Which is a really scary precedent to set when the news starts doing that, even if it's just from their pundit's speculations about a future event.
posted
That's true. The people I mentioned only ever watch Fox, so I suppose it shouldn't surprise me.
Posts: 1324 | Registered: Feb 2011
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posted
That's one the reasons why I see Nate Silver going 50 for 50 on statewide predictions as being on of the more important things to come out of this. I've had no doubt that President Obama was going to win pretty much the entire time, because the electoral math was so obviously in his favor.
Posts: 10177 | Registered: Apr 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Jeff C.: That's true. The people I mentioned only ever watch Fox, so I suppose it shouldn't surprise me.
I'm pretty sure that people who get their information only from Fox (and have to deal with reality) live in a near permanent state of surprise/disappointment.
Posts: 10177 | Registered: Apr 2001
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posted
The election was severely corrupted by the dishonesty and unprofessionalism of the Main Stream Media, which refused to take Obama to task for his obvious miscues, such as "Fast and Furious," the terrorist attack in Benghazi and Obama's attempt for ten days afterward to characterize it as a "demonstration" against an inconsequential internet video, and Obama's lie that Romney did not call for GM and Chrysler to go through bankruptcy WITH GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES--which is pretty much what Obama did, except that he gave the car companies cash up front.
Some leftist liberals may delude themselves that they have a cause for celebration. But what is there really to celebrate? The triumph of wrong? The triumph of negative campaigning and untrue personal attacks? The triumph of a total incompetent who never so much as managed a lemonade stand over a proven professional in business?
Contemplate very carefully what the nation has let itself in for during the next four years, and see if it is really a cause for celebrating. I think this is the beginning of the end. The end of America as a nation that stands for good in the world, and the end of the world as it looks to America for leadership. I am afraid there may be no recovery from this. We are heading downhill, and it is permanent. This time, we have finally gone too far. Woe to the next generation--if there is one. The Lord will come within nine years.
Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Chris Bridges: Wow. Just read OSC's post-election essay and, as usual these past few years, I'm really kind of sorry I did.
Indeed. From the title I thought it was going to be a let's-all-come-together article in the spirit of Romney's concession speech. It wasn't.
Posts: 644 | Registered: Sep 2008
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posted
Note another prediction, tucked in among the usual Ron-crap: the Lord will come within 9 years.
Posts: 37449 | Registered: May 1999
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First, please come up with a new word for news sources you don't like. Last night's top cable news shows were CNN (8.836 million total viewers), FOX News (8.708 million total viewers) and MSNBC (4.604 million total viewers). FOX IS PART OF THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. You can't pretend to be the unheard underdog when you're the second (and occasionally top) news network on the air.
"Fast and Furious" has been explained, you just don't like the answer. The report was released, some top ATF officials were punished or fired. There's no evidence that Holder knew about it (the program predated him, from the Bush years). Withholding documents was a dumb move (unless there were reasons we don't know yet) but those documents were provided to the investigating committee (several are quoted in the report) so if there were any smoking guns in there, they're out.
Benghazi was a fustercluck, but it wasn't the malicious, Obama-wants-our-people-to-die story FOX (and, sadly, OSC) keeps pushing.
Romney called for a "managed bankruptcy." But this would not have worked in 2008. From the Washington Post's Fact Check:
quote:"Here’s how the bipartisan Congressional Oversight Panel, in a unanimous finding, framed the issue in a January 2011 report: "The circumstances in the global credit markets in November and December 2008 were unlike any the financial markets had seen in decades. U.S. domestic credit markets were frozen in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy, and international sources of funding were extremely limited."
Romney's plan would not have worked; he straight out said the government should not 'seal their fate with a bailout check." Obama was right.
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Woe to the next generation--if there is one. The Lord will come within nine years.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this prediction will fall in line with every other prediction you've ever made on this site.
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It is, like, absolute spittling fury. CNN is every bit the enemy to democracy that the Nazis were. FEMA did "at least as badly as the Bush administration did after Katrina." Fox news coverage was the only "genuinely balanced" coverage.
quote:faced with your monolithic groupthink, your insistent flacking for the Beloved Leader, your dishonesty that is equal to his dishonesty, your emulation of Pravda, the Republicans in Congress will give up, Fox News will drop the story, it will all go away, and the Beloved Leader will continue in power.
Then, when his appeasement of our enemies results in a nuclear explosion in Tel Aviv ...
When more and more Al-Qaeda-style attacks kill more Jews and more Americans around the world ...
When Obama's incompetent and anti-scientific economic policies have the consequences that such policies always have, and the American economy collapses under the weight of debts and entitlements ...
When Obama's crushing policies result in American healthcare sinking to the low level of service, the endless waiting lists, the needless death and suffering in the name of "fairness" that already afflict Europeans and Canadians ...
When the burden of ever-steeper taxes moves capital and industry and innovation to other countries ...
Will you step forward and take responsibility, and say, "We should have known; in fact we did know, but we did not tell you"?
Will you accept accountability for your lies and omissions in support of the Beloved Leader, for your slanders of the opponents of the Beloved Leader, for your having put your ideology and group loyalty above any notion of truth and honor?
That list of bad things -- we might get lucky. Some of those bad things might not happen. After all, there are still plenty of good people trying to keep us safe and make things work well.
The Beloved Leader isn't one of them, but he thinks he is, and so he might actually learn something and change his policies. It's possible, though it hasn't happened even once during the first four years of his reign.
Or Israel might take care of the Iranian nuke for us. Jews aren't going to sit still for another holocaust, even if the intellectuals of the world -- including you -- have re-embraced fashionable anti-semitism, this time under the name "anti-zionism" or "anti-neo-conservatism."
posted
You know, I'd strongly consider sending Ron some money to predict that bad things would happen to me and mine. I'm afraid that it really doesn't work like that though.
Posts: 10177 | Registered: Apr 2001
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posted
OSC's head is full of angry bees. I don't think it's fair to laugh at him for this...but I find it hard not to.
Posts: 10177 | Registered: Apr 2001
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Will we become aware of it or will it be one of those incognito comings, where He comes, but 99.99% of the human population hasn't actually realized he has come?
Consider using http://predictionbook.com/ to record your predictions; you can put a percentage of certainty on each prediction, so that you then judge if you tend to be overconfident, underconfident.
Posts: 676 | Registered: Feb 2003
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quote:Originally posted by MrSquicky: That's one the reasons why I see Nate Silver going 50 for 50 on statewide predictions as being on of the more important things to come out of this. I've had no doubt that President Obama was going to win pretty much the entire time, because the electoral math was so obviously in his favor.
I was certain that, given the data, President Obama should win but with all the voting shenanigans going on in FL, OH, and PA I was still worried.
Posts: 11187 | Registered: Sep 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Hobbes: Though I certainly saw a lot more conservative news outlets saying Romney would win, I honestly thought that it was pretty much across the board fantasy we were in a nail-biter. Everyone knew what their audience needed to hear if they were to tune in again and then just said that. Which is a really scary precedent to set when the news starts doing that, even if it's just from their pundit's speculations about a future event.
quote:You haven't just been misinformed about the horse race. Since the very beginning of the election cycle, conservative media has been failing you. With a few exceptions, they haven't tried to rigorously tell you the truth, or even to bring you intellectually honest opinion. What they've done instead helps to explain why the right failed to triumph in a very winnable election
posted
A companion piece to boots's, written by a conservative pundit who predicted that Obama was going to win. Here's the money quote:
quote:One of the many reasons that the conservative movement is in such deep trouble is that those who were wrong here will suffer no consequences and those who knew the truth will receive no benefit.
This sums a lot of it to me. I was basically forced out of the Republican Party during the Bush years as it bought more and more into embracing fantasy and outright falsehood with no regard for the consequences. There are a lot of important parts of what was traditionally the conservative viewpoint/philosophy/ideology that I feel have largely been lost in favor of courting the ignorant, angry, and old who prefer lies that agree with them to truth that doesn't.
I believe that, although this may seem like a boon to many liberals, ultimately this is seriously damaging the country as a whole, not just to to the conservative parts/movement. Not only do we have an entire segment of the populace that chooses to get their information from a source that leaves them worse informed that if they didn't look at news at all, but (even if you don't agree with me that a lot of the conservative ideology is important) the principled opposition that the should be presenting is a necessary component of refining and reigning in the excesses of the liberals and Democrats. They seem to have largely swapped that for opposition based on shallow ideology and cultivated personal hatred.
The Republicans have spent a lot of more than the last decade actively degrading ideals I think are very important, like responsibility, honesty, integrity, etc. I'm not sure exactly what these concepts look like in the minds of those who have bought into their perversions, but I know that they scare me.
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: ... The end of America as a nation that stands for good in the world, and the end of the world as it looks to America for leadership.
posted
I never thought I'd say it . . . but . . . is Ron a secret pseudonym for OSC? I have a hard time believing some of the political essays lately.
I find it hard to believe some of the allegations in his essay. It's almost akin to conspiracy theory ranting. Like the economy, for instance. Most of the economists who have been (successfully) planning our recovery are the same mainstream economists that Bush had. The same cronies that Greenspan hung with. There've been a few new faces, but mainstream economic theory is on our side. Why would anyone blame Obama? It's not like he's doing any crazy socialist plotting. He's doing what any of us would do -- trusting the scientific experts and advisers. Just like he has with the military. We have facts on all of the other "crimes". I really don't understand the objection from laymen who don't understand economics / military theory / the way the government works / etc.
quote:I believe that, although this may seem like a boon to many liberals, ultimately this is seriously damaging the country as a whole, not just to to the conservative parts/movement.
What, you mean having no real party choice in presidential elections, and having a congress where one party refuses to let anything get through if it would help them hurt the other party (and in the process becoming almost as unpopular as castro) is BAD for a country? what??
Posts: 15421 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: The election was severely corrupted by the dishonesty and unprofessionalism of the Main Stream Media, which refused to take Obama to task for his obvious miscues, such as "Fast and Furious," the terrorist attack in Benghazi and Obama's attempt for ten days afterward to characterize it as a "demonstration" against an inconsequential internet video, and Obama's lie that Romney did not call for GM and Chrysler to go through bankruptcy WITH GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES--which is pretty much what Obama did, except that he gave the car companies cash up front.
Some leftist liberals may delude themselves that they have a cause for celebration. But what is there really to celebrate? The triumph of wrong? The triumph of negative campaigning and untrue personal attacks? The triumph of a total incompetent who never so much as managed a lemonade stand over a proven professional in business?
Contemplate very carefully what the nation has let itself in for during the next four years, and see if it is really a cause for celebrating. I think this is the beginning of the end. The end of America as a nation that stands for good in the world, and the end of the world as it looks to America for leadership. I am afraid there may be no recovery from this. We are heading downhill, and it is permanent. This time, we have finally gone too far. Woe to the next generation--if there is one. The Lord will come within nine years.
Hey Ron, you should start an extreme right email chain and start sending them out. You would be really good at it. It would probably be a quick road to popularity, as there is still a large segment of people ready to eat this stuff up. You can all join in sharing the same predictions. After all, why keep exposing yourself to people here that just can't see the wisdom behind these predictions.
I mean, c'mon, being wrong about everything shouldn't change the fact that your predictions are gold.
Posts: 684 | Registered: Aug 2001
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We congratulate President Obama on winning a second term as President of the United States.
After a long campaign, this is now a time for Americans to come together. It is a long tradition among Latter-day Saints to pray for our national leaders in our personal prayers and in our congregations. We invite Americans everywhere, whatever their political persuasion, to pray for the President, for his administration and the new Congress as they lead us through difficult and turbulent times. May our national leaders reflect the best in wisdom and judgment as they fulfill the great trust afforded to them by the American people.
We also commend Governor Romney for engaging at the highest level of our democratic process, which, by its nature, demands so much of those who offer themselves for public service. We wish him and his family every success in their future endeavors.
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