quote: Long-term forecasts show the storm heading into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Forecasters said high water temperatures and other conditions were favorable for it to become a significant hurricane.
Is anyone else wondering when hurricane season is done for the year?
--Enigmatic
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
Hurricane season officially ends in October, I believe but there have been named storms in November before.
Posted by starLisa (Member # 8384) on :
If they get past Zelda, do they go to Aaron? I don't think there's a Bb name. <sigh>
Posted by KarlEd (Member # 571) on :
Today on NPR I believe they said this is the farthest down the alphabet they've gotten since 1931. This is the most tropical storms in one year, tied with 1931, in the whole 150 year recorded history of storm seasons.
(I heard this while driving and haven't double-checked it, so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.)
Posted by starLisa (Member # 8384) on :
Are there Americans who know the Greek alphabet in order? I'm shocked.
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
Alpha, Beta...Omega...Theta...
Yeah. That's all I got. Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
There it is.
Posted by CaySedai (Member # 6459) on :
Alpha, beta, gamma, delta, epsilon ... that's my guess without checking Narnia's link. Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
Alpha, beta, gamma, delta . . . uhm. hei-- hmm.
Something something something, omega. Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
It just floors me that we got up to W this year. Posted by advice for robots (Member # 2544) on :
quote:Originally posted by adam613: Hurricane season ends Nov 30.
I wonder who will be in the playoffs.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Let's see...alpha, beta, gamma, delta, episilon, zeta, eta, theta, iota, kappa, lamba, mu, nu, xi, omicron, pi, rho, sigma, tau...I always get the letters after that out of order for some reason. Even when I could actually read attic Greek, I still got the four letters between tau and omega out of order.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by Ela: It just floors me that we got up to W this year.
There are no X, Y, or Z names on the list. We've used them all. If there is another atlantic Tropical Storm before the end of the year, we will more on to the greek letters, something that has never happened before.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
I really think the greek letter idea is lame. Rather, we should use the doubled letter standard which is fairly common. Then we could name them things like Amelia Anne and Billy Bob. Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
A hurricane named Billy Bob. *blink*
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Wouldn't that be awesome? We need some native Mississippian, Alabamian, and Louisianan names, after all, since so many of them come here.
Posted by Chris Bridges (Member # 1138) on :
Wilma is now a hurricane.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Wilma is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75milesperhour/120kilometresperhour
"...that lousy excuse for a tropical storm hit Spain the other week."
Actually, that tropical storm was HurricaneVince for a while before the winds lessened. And its clearly visible eye and unusual characteristics -- eg formation and growth in waters colder than thought possible -- made it worthy of naming for easy rememberance even had it never gotten beyond the tropical storm stage.
However, I do agree that there were lesser tropical storms which should have remained numbered rather than named. I'd suggest that a TropicalStorm should at least reach a BeaufortWindScale Force9 StrongGale (41knots/47mph/76kph) before being named.
Posted by Jay (Member # 5786) on :
And I'm supposed to be in Tampa Saturday night for the WVU - South Florida game.........
Something tells me game time might change……
Posted by Shanna (Member # 7900) on :
I don't care if another hurricane comes. I'm kinda hoping one does. My mom said three strikes and we're out of here. It'll be nice to go back to Texas and civilization.
Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
I can't even name the English alphabet in order! The Greek one is out of the question.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Keep the date anyway, Jay. Ain't nothin' more romantic than sharing a disaster. Witness the success of Cameron's Titantic, etc.
Posted by pH (Member # 1350) on :
Goody-goody. Another hurricane.
Jay: I wouldn't worry too much about Tampa, if you make it there, and by some freak accident, the storm hits. Especially if you're in the USF area.
-pH
Posted by ketchupqueen (Member # 6877) on :
quote:It'll be nice to go back to Texas and civilization.
Did you just use "Texas" and "civilization" in the same sentence? Posted by Jay (Member # 5786) on :
Yes, as my car gets smashed from flying coconuts and oranges and roads get flooded out and what not. Fun.
I’m hoping they change the game to noon and then I can get the heck out of dodge.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Hey, nobody said romance was s'poseta be easy Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
HurricaneWilma is now Category2 with sustained winds of 100mph/161kph
Posted by Epictetus (Member # 6235) on :
quote: A hurricane named Billy Bob. *blink*
I've always secretly thought that they should name hurricanes something really intimidating. I guess it would just be easier for me to be scared of a tropical storm name "Bubba" or "Internal Revenue Service."
Posted by pH (Member # 1350) on :
WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED [...is...] 901 MB...26.61 INCHES.
From the NationalHurricaneCenter VortexDataMessage as of 19Oct 04:32:40Z/12:32PM EDT C. 850 mb 516 m [ie pressure of 850millibar measured at the height of 516metres/1692feet] [extrapolated to] H. EXTRAP 901 MB [at sealevel]
L. CLOSED WALL
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z [maximum flight level wind -- at 516m/1692f -- 162knots/186mph/300kph] SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB [sealevel pressure extrapolated from flightlevel pressure]
to
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...HURRICANE WILMA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
[ October 19, 2005, 08:50 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by akhockey (Member # 8394) on :
I've always thought we should name them again, after they hit. "Hurricane Hyperbole" or "Hurricane Utter Devastation" are catchier than Wilma.
And what about sexually ambiguous names? "Hurricane Ru Paul is making his or her way up the coast of Florida..." if anyone can name that quote they get 10 points.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
"HurricaneWilma's winds reached 175 mph and its pressure dropped to 892 mb this morning, making it an extremely intense Category 5 hurricane...with a projected landfall in Florida. This is the lowest pressure observed in 2005 and is equivalent to the minimum pressure of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami."
"Just nine hours after becoming a hurricane, Wilma's wind speeds had jumped from 75 mph to 100 mph. Then, within two hours, the winds intensified from 110 to 150 mph. A short time later, its winds had increased to 175 mph."
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
[ October 19, 2005, 08:52 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
Everyone be careful down there in Florida. Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST RETURNING... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
Posted by El JT de Spang (Member # 7742) on :
Where's landfall expected to occur?
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Fl, near the tip.
Click on this link for all the info you cpuld need. Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
According to the NationalHurricaneCenter 5day prediction HurricaneWilma is expected to make landfall in western Florida at the northernmost border of the the EvergladesNationalPark, travel through the southernmost border of LakeOkeechobee then exit on the Florida east coast about halfway between Ft.Pierce and WestPalmBeach, possibly as a Category3 hurricane as it reenters the AtlanticOcean.
However, the NHC has been predicting nearly straight line travel through the YucatanChannel between Cancun and Cuba from each point recorded on the tracking map, so I wouldn't take ease from that prediction if I were living in any of the other GulfCoast states.
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 882 MB...26.05 INCHES.
[ October 19, 2005, 08:54 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Megan (Member # 5290) on :
It's supposed to brush both the Yucatan Peninsula and possibly Cuba, as well. Wrath of God year continues.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
It has already hit both of those...it is there right now, just off the coast of Cuba. . .
Posted by Teshi (Member # 5024) on :
quote:Are there Americans who know the Greek alphabet in order? I'm shocked.
Alpha beta gamma delta epsilon zeta eta theta iota kappa lambda mu nu xi omicron pi rho sigma tau upsilon phi chi psi omega
Not American, though...
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Ya left out Galvetron and OptimusPrime
Posted by El JT de Spang (Member # 7742) on :
quote:Are there Americans who know the Greek alphabet in order? I'm shocked.
Pretty much everyone who's in a fraternity or sorority has to memorize it. So yeah, there are a few.
Posted by Boon (Member # 4646) on :
It's headed pretty much right at my in-laws. Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD .. .HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS.
quote:WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
Yikes, Pray for the people in Mexico. This is a monster.
Given the current trajectories, this storm could devaste the yucatan, then regain strength over the gulf, cross the entire florida penninsula, regain stength over the atlantic and reak havic all the way up the eastern sea board. The current maps at the national hurricane center show 10% chance of hurricane winds all the way up to Nova Scotia.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Local authorities have just ordered the evacuation of all non-residents and tourists from the Florida Keys.
Ohh boy, I've been hearing for years about the vulnerablity of the Keys to a majors hurricane.
from Wikipedia
quote:Tropical cyclones present special dangers and challenges to the entire Keys. Because no area of the islands is more than 20 feet above sea level (and many are only a few feet elevation), and water surrounds the islands, nearly every neighborhood is subject to devastating flooding as well as hurricane winds.
Because of the threat from storm surge, evacuations are routinely ordered when the National Weather Service issues a hurricane watch or warning, and are sometimes ordered for a tropical storm warning. Evacuation of the Keys depends on causeways and the two-lane highway to the mainland. Time estimates for evacuating the entire Keys range from 12 to 24 hours. Evacuation estimates are significant in emergency planning, of course, but also because they are a factor in local and state regulations for controlling development. The building permit allocation was increased in 2005 when local governments reduced estimates for evacuation.
Posted by Samarkand (Member # 8379) on :
Sorority girl, definitely know the entire Greek alphabet in order.
I'm worried about the people, but the environmental impact that this storm will have on the Everglades and the Keys is also huge. We've preserved very very little of the wetlands of Florida, and this could destroy what we have protected. There aren't other reservoirs of native plant and animal life to recolonize. It really sucks. Down with subdivisions and McMansions, argh.
Posted by Rakeesh (Member # 2001) on :
*sigh* Gadzooks! We'll see what happens, but looks like time to-G-d help me-hunker down! again. Yuck. Hopefully things will slow down a bit.
Posted by El JT de Spang (Member # 7742) on :
Samarkand,
I didn't know any of you guys could read.
/I keed, I keed. (I love Boulder)
Posted by pH (Member # 1350) on :
At least there's no Diddy-sponsored award show going on this time to demand the attention of a huge portion of the police force while the population of non-celebrities in South Florida face the hurricane without the benefit of a full force of law enforcement officials.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.
Posted by pH (Member # 1350) on :
How close are the University of Miami dorms to the coast?
My little brother is there.
And my parents are in Tampa, but our house isn't near the ocean at all. I'm sure my parents can handle themselves. I'm more worried about my brother.
Since the hurricane is projected to be coming from the west and travel north of Miami, with Miami far enough away from the eye to experience only tropical force winds at worst, there shouldn't be any storm surges hitting the campuses.
[ October 19, 2005, 08:16 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by pH (Member # 1350) on :
Well, great. Now I'm more worried about my parents.
But they've weathered storms in our house before.
Just not this, uh, beefy, steriod hurricane.
Life annoys me.
-pH
Posted by mackillian (Member # 586) on :
Good LORD.
I hope our FL Hatrackers can get the hell out of the way in time. Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
If the northern front across the US -- which is supposed to push Wilma eastward -- arrives in time to prevent a Yucatan landfall, there may be an accompanying windshear that would lessen the speed of the hurricane's winds to a considerable degree.
If not, HurricaneWilma might follow the same path as HurricaneStan did; travel westward across Mexico into the PacificOcean.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:If not, there is a chance that HurricaneWilma will do the same thing as HurricaneStan did: cross Mexico into the PacificOcean.
That seems very unlikely. Currently, (i.e. prior to the arrival of the northern front), Wilma is heading due north. If the front doesn't arrive in time, it seems most likely that Wilma would continue on its current northerly trajectory, move into the gulf of Mexico and potentially hit land along the US gulf coast. I don't see anything that is likely to push the storm westward.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR... WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.
[ October 19, 2005, 08:10 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
I stand corrected. For some reason I had the map turned a bit in my head putting the gulf of Mexico due north of the Yukatan rather than northwest of the Yukatan.
But still, if the Hurricane continues on its current west northwest trajectory it will cross the yukatan and end up in the gulf of mexico. In order for it to cross Mexico and end up in the pacific, it would have to turn to the southwest which seems highly unlikely.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Yep, Rabbit, and your statement matches that of the talk from the NationalHurricaneCenter experts. Which is why I used "might" in: If not, HurricaneWilma might follow the same path as HurricaneStan did. Guess I should have italicized might for more emphasis.
However, as I stated before on this thread, the NHC has been predicting a more northward path than has occurred from each point recorded on Wilma's actual storm track. ie Wilma has been squirrelly in movement when compared to the NHC predictions. So I'm more willing to offer possibilities which differ from the NHC predictions for consideration by others.
[ October 19, 2005, 09:26 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
BTW: Take a look at the difference in sea surface temperatures for the Gulf of Mexico between Oct18 and Oct19. Which was one of the things which made me think that perhaps the cold pressure cell of the northern front has already descended onto the Gulf of Mexico, with perhaps enough pressure to prevent Wilma's northward movement past the Yucatan. Just speculation. Of course, if I hadda know what I was talking about I'd talk a lot less.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
quote: Of course, if I hadda know what I was talking about [Big Grin] I'd talk a lot less.
Wouldn't we all. Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
"Pressure of 882 and hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from the center?! 175 mph is a pretty conservative wind speed estimate..."
From an article on HurricaneWilma's unusual features, "A hurricane’s winds are blown because higher-pressure [outside] air rushes [inward] toward the lower-pressure eye to equalize the difference. Typically, the lower the pressure, the faster the air speeds in. But because the [outside] pressure around each storm is different, lower [central] pressure doesn’t [directly] correspond to a specific wind speed."
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR WILMA IS A [top end] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.
[ October 20, 2005, 02:03 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
WILMA HAS [been] MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13KM/HR...WITH SOME WOBBLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR... WILMA IS A [top end] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 899 MB...26.55 INCHES.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
WILMA IS...MOVING...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR WITH SOME WOBBLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WILMA IS A[n upper level] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES.
[ October 20, 2005, 08:29 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
WILMA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR... WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES.
[ October 20, 2005, 04:54 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by DarkKnight (Member # 7536) on :
Why do I have an image of Fred Flintstone standing outside yelling "WILLLLLLLLMAAAAAAAAAAAA!" as loud as he can?
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by DarkKnight: Why do I have an image of Fred Flintstone standing outside yelling "WILLLLLLLLMAAAAAAAAAAAA!" as loud as he can?
For two days, I've been asking myself the same question . . .
. . . and wondering if it would be utterly insensitive of me to mention it considering that peoples lives are in the balance.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT.
This is not good news for the people in the Yucatan. Looking at the maps it appears that there is no escape.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
I've been getting the same image And wondering why the NationalHurricaneCenter hasta print advisories in capital letters. It's not like the rest of their website is written that way. It's not like they don't have the time to make proper use of capitalization: the advisories are usually posted online ~15minutes before scheduled.
But then, the NationalHurricaneCenter website is one of the worst designed for extracting information. Not only is the most-looked-for information buried in the all-capitals text instead of being placed as the leading lines on the advisories, but the public can't directly access old advisories and old forecasts. Instead ya hafta download a bunch of pages and non-links -- individually by changing numbers in the browser address box -- then sort through them visually to find the relevant pages. They don't even publish the actual storm track along with their forecast maps. It's almost as if the NHC's head bureaucrats are afraid that the public expects forecasts to be perfect.
Though I've been tempted to retype the advisories into something less screaming and more readable, I'm also leary of even the amount of condensation, changed line placement, and bracketed personal notes that I'm already doing; so...
WILMA IS MOVING...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WILMA IS A[n upper level] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.
[ October 20, 2005, 07:13 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
quote:This is not good news for the people in the Yucatan. Looking at the maps it appears that there is no escape.
My dad worked on hurrican relief efforts and planning for the Navy. He said the general rule is "run from water, hide from wind." Of course, this requires an appropriate hiding place: strong enough building or underground shelter. Of course, the height needed to avoid water generally makes one more vulnerable to wind.
The Yucatan has some high ground. I hope there are adequate shelters there. But they don't necessarily have to get off the penninsula to be safe if they have adequate shelters.
I have a bad feeling that the strongest buildings might be all on the coast, though.
[ October 20, 2005, 07:52 PM: Message edited by: Dagonee ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
BTW: When looking at maps, each degree of latitude is 60nauticalmiles/~69miles/~111kilometres. So the 5degrees between lines on the NHC forecast map is about 300nm : "about" because the longitude lines(rings) shrink as their distance from the equator(ring) increases.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Even though the eye of this hurricane is still around 12 hours away, the edge of the hurricane is already striking the coast of the Yukatan. The next 24 hours are going to be brutal for the people there. And the storm is currently getting stronger rather than weaker.
I'd say prayers are in order.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
BTW, Isn't it cool that we can get all this stuff online. Back in my grad. school days, we used to have to go to the map room on the top floor of the UW meterology building to see this kind of stuff. And of course, that was limited access.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Yep. And really nice to be able to easily share whatcha find. Here's a usefully large (click to expand) map of Central America, the Caribbean, and the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Looking at this topographic (click to enlarge) map of NorthAmerica, the triangular tip region of the Yucatan peninsula is as flat and low to the ocean as southern Florida Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
If you watch the animation of the satellite map right now, you can see the hurricane disappear as the sunsets. Wouldn't that be nice? If you can't see it, it isn't there.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
WILMA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL [large tourist resort island just east of the Yucatan Peninsula] AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED IN COZUMEL AND ADJACENT AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WILMA IS A[n upper level] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WILMA REGAINS CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.
Even IF the hurricane turns north-northeast so that it's eye passes through the center of the YucatanChannel between Mexico and Cuba, Wilma is so large that: at least CategoryOne hurricane strength winds and rain will hit the coasts of both countries; and tropical force winds and rain will hit a large section of western Cuba and most of the triangular tip of the YucatanPeninsula.
Which is the best case scenario minimizing the combined damage in both countries. And a possibly very bad one for the US. Without a landfall or near landfall of the hurricane's eye to greatly reduce Wilma's strength, there is a very strong chance that: Wilma will pass through the YucatanChannel into the Gulf of Mexico as a Cat.5 hurricane; and even the Gulf's lower sea surface temperatures, lower humidity, and greater windshear won't weaken the hurricane enough to prevent Wilma from making landfall in the US as an extremely strong hurricane.
[ October 21, 2005, 09:36 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Wilma’s outer eyewall made landfall in Cozumel at ~8:15am. The hurricane’s eye is ~40miles/~64kilometres wide -- ~20miles/32kilometres in radius -- while the center of the eye was ~50miles/~80kilometres southeast of Cozumel.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Cool, But this means it will probably hit FL (if it turns this way at all) on my day off...
How inconvienant! Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Everything I'm reading is about the resorts and tourists. What about the hundred of thousands of Mexicans who live there, of whom 94% live below poverty level?
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
I know this is going to sound callous but if it hits me the night of the Nine Inch Nails concert I'm gonna punch Wilma in the face!
Honestly, I'm just sick of putting boards up.
Posted by pH (Member # 1350) on :
Treason: I feel sorry for Trent.
I wonder if his house is still there.
-pH
Posted by Goo Boy (Member # 7752) on :
Looks like I better go buy new tires while I can . . .
Posted by Boon (Member # 4646) on :
My in-laws live about here. That seems right in the path of the storm track, neh? It's unlikely that they'll evacuate. They rode out Andrew, and, even though their neighbor's roof blew off, they've stayed home for every hurricane since then.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
(click to enlarge) Cozumel is being totally trashed. With 145to140mph/233to225kph winds&rain battering the island for hours on end, I expect that the overwhelming majority of homes will be destroyed. And even the poshest resort hotels will have the most of their windows blown out, and a substantial portion of their interior doors and walls blown into the internal corridors.
I hope I'm very very wrong, but the death&casualty figures could be horrendously ugly. Including large numbers of disappeared buried under sand and mudslides or swept away from the island by the tidal surge.
[ October 21, 2005, 03:17 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
I've been watching the sattellite pictures all morning. Wilma's just been virtually sitting on top of Cozumel at least since dawn. I keep reading in the US news about how it's "good news" that this storm is moving so slowly because that gives it more time to loose strength before it hits the US.
It seems that such sentiments are very insensitive in the least to the Mexican's and Cuban's who are getting totally trashed by this monster storm. The more slowly it moves, the worse it will be for all those people who live on the Yucatan pennisula and in Cuba. It makes me angry to read articles about tourists who are trapped in hot over crowded shelters, when the local residents are loosing their homes.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Yeah, I totally agree. And I think that'll be a topic, possibly a thread for later
But I read hours ago in the NBC article posted above that the roof of the gymnasium where Cancun tourists/refugees are being housed was already leaking, with winds still under or barely reaching tropical storm force. The windows weren't boarded up and unlikely to become so. Which doesn't bode well for the roof to survive the hurricane.
[ October 21, 2005, 03:38 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
quote:Everything I'm reading is about the resorts and tourists. What about the hundred of thousands of Mexicans who live there, of whom 94% live below poverty level?
I heard a piece last night on...hm...either All Things Considered, Marketplace, or BBC World Service that made me feel somewhat better about the average person's chances of weathering this storm, Rabbit. According to the piece local governments have been taking the threat of hurricanes pretty seriously since Glibert ripped through the Yucatan in 1988. Most people still have their stockpiles of food and water from a hurricane scare this past June, according to the piece, and announcemnts have been being made over both the radio and speakers in both Spanish and Mayan warning people about the storm and advising them to make their way to shelters (and apparently shelters exist, too, which is always a good thing. I have no idea what they consist of, though, or how well constructed they are).
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
Rabbit, I have not heard that tone around here.
Maybe it's because, this close to Latin America, many people here have relatives in the afflicted areas. But the tone I have heard has been concern for all those affected, not relief that it's spending more time in Mexico.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Rabbit, it always upsets me when the US news reports only US deaths, and acts like other people don't even matter. That happens far too often. I wish there were some way we could clue them all in that we do count other nationalities as people, and what happens to them matters to us. Icarus, I'm glad that attitude isn't universal, as shown by your area. I mean, we're the melting pot country! Americans are from everywhere, and have friends and family from all over the world. It's just weird that so many of the US news outlets don't seem to realize that yet.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET [2.3to3.3metres] ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES
When Wilma's outer eyewall first struck Cozumel, Cuba was reporting 20foot/6metre waves were hitting its southwestern coastline. Photograph of a Wilma-generated wave hitting GrandCayman*, which remained outside of Wilma's path.
Still no news coming out of Cozumel. Any mention seems to be repetition of the last news reports which came out a bit before 75mph/120kph hurricane-force wind&rain touched the island, before the ~10foot/~3metre storm surge had arrived. And well before the 145mph/233kph outer eyewall struck Cozumel with more than 7times as much power, and with possibly 45foot+/13.5+metre waves on top of the storm surge.
* Star-marked island south of Havana, Cuba. Click to enlarge map.
[ October 22, 2005, 05:59 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
The news coming out of the Yucatan remains sparce, but "In Cancun, the Caribbean flowed over the hotel zone, reached three stories high and merged with an inland lagoon. Hundreds of tourists had to be rescued from their refuge at a gymnasium after the roof blew away." Wonder if the gynasium is the one with the leaky roof mentioned in the article posted earlier.
Still no news from Cozumel, except the mention of a Mexican naval ship which ran across several floating bodies, and a mention of a "fruit and vegetable salesman who phoned in that damage was minimal". Considering that no other Cozumelian has phoned, internetted, or radioed out a message*...
* Which is unusual cuz there are a LOT of direct satellite-bounce phones, satellite-bounce internet-linked computers, and radio transceivers there for the boating&yachting crowd, and a lot of private electrical generators. Plus there is a Mexican naval station on the island, which apparently hasn't been back in contact yet. Though I suppose that could have been evacuated before the hurricane struck. However, about half of Cozumel's population did not evacuate.
[ October 23, 2005, 08:07 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
This BBC News article refers to the birth of Tropical Storm Alpha.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Noemon, I get a 404 on that link. Could they have moved the article? I can't find it on the BBC news website. Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
The National Weather Service has information on it here. Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
The satellite loop here makes me wonder if the two storms will eventually collide. Click on the "Tropical Forecast Points" check box, after the whole loop loads, to see the projected future path of the two storms.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Do storms function like waves, where it's possible for two of them to actually cancel each other out?
I'll go and fix my link Tatiana.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Hm. That's really odd. The story appears to be gone from their site. The link still works for me, but I suspect that that's because the page is cached.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Noemon, I'm pretty sure two storms would add if they merged. They might lose strength temporarily while merging, as the winds got more chaotic. But my guess (totally untrained in meteorology) is that as they near each other there will be a powerful attraction for each other, due to the distribution of pressures. Think about how the winds in between would tend to cancel each other out, while those around the perimeter would add to each other. I think that would lead to a very strong tendency to merge. Maybe someone who studies storms on Jupiter or Saturn can say for sure. I've never heard of two storms merging on Earth before but I think it happens on Jupiter and Saturn all the time.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Too bad the story is gone. Why not post your cached version?
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
So my husband took down our sukkah before the holiday is over, for the first time ever. We don't want it to take flight in 70 mph winds we keep hearing we'll be getting.
Now, I have to go cook for the holiday which is starting tomorrow night, in case our power goes out tonight, Our power goes out in a routine thunder storm, never mind a hurricane, and we have an electric stove.
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
My power goes out as well in a regular storm. I do not like the thought of another 2 days without ac in South Florida again. Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
My electricity has already flickered off a couple times, but I got most of my cooking done.
I usually turn the ac to a cooler temp before a storm - it gives us a little more time before we reach the uncomfortable stage if the power goes off.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE CENTER...IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF...FLORIDA...EARLY MONDAY MORNING
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND WILMA COULD BE...MAJOR HURRICANE...STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE...COAST MONDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...IS ESTIMATED TO BE 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT [2.7to5.1metres] ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL
pH: Wilma expanded the breadth of its hurricane force winds by a significant distance since leaving Cozumel/Cancun. Even if Wilma stays exactly on it's predicted course, there is a chance that UoM will experience hurricane force winds&rain of CategoryOne. The good news is that buildings at the University of Miami can easily withstand Cat.3 hurricanes. With enough confidence in standing up to stronger hurricanes that evacuees from the FloridaKeys are being housed there for the duration, even though the choice of shelter was made when a Cat.4 or Cat.5 landfall was still feared.
Boon: Your in-laws survived a northern edge of Andrew coming at them from the east, after travel across ~100miles of land caused major weakening. Wilma's eye is forecast to make landfall directly on the coast around 10miles from where they live inland, with possibly Cat.3 winds&rain. Since the hurricane left the Yucatan, the NHC's forecast of Wilma's path has been very accurate. Where I lived in Tampa, ya couldn't dig much more than a yard/metre down without hitting water. If your in-laws are similarly located, that would mean that their home is lower compared to the ocean than the height of the expected storm surge. About the only saving grace is that the freeway curving around them might be high enough to act as a levee. Haven't been there, so I wouldn't know. But if I were them, I'd rent an interior third-floor room in a nearby major hotel for tonight, and park my car on the third floor of an enclosed multi-story garage.
* And no, I ain't psychic. Boon posted an earlier link to a map of her in-laws' location.
[ October 24, 2005, 02:49 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
The wind is picking up here, and we have had a few more power flickers. Think it's time to shut down the computer, for now.
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Good luck, all.
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
I've got to shut the computer off as well. There's a cat 3 storm with my address on a piece of paper and it's looking for my house.
I'll post tomorrow and let y'all know if I'm alive. All the other Floridians post also!
Nikki
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
By the last several NHC reports: HurricaneWilma's center will make landfall with strong Category3/125+mph/200+kph winds near Naples, pass directly over LakeOkeechobee, and enter the Atlantic near FortPierce. Zoom out one step on this map until both coasts appear. Naples is on the southwest of the Gulf coastline, and FortPierce is on the northwest of the Atlantic coastline.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
By the time I posted the above, HurricaneWilma's center had made a 6:30amETD Florida landfall at CapeRomano. Nope, no city or town, no name on the map. Just the point where the red star is.
By 7:00amETD, HurricaneWilma's winds had decreased to 120mph/193kph , stillCategory3, and its center had moved to the red-starred point on this map
Straightline projection through the two red stars indicates that HurricaneWilma's center will graze the southern end of LakeOkeechobee, then exit Florida into the Atlantic a bit south of PortSt.Lucie
At 9:00amEDT, HurricaneWilma's maximum sustained winds have fallen to 110mph/177kph, high CategoryTwo, and the current position of its center is about two-thirds north on the line between LakeOkeechobee and Miami.
[ October 24, 2005, 09:29 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
Looks like Wilma took a more southern course than people anticipated. Seems like it exited between Dade and Broward Counties.
Ela, you alright?
-o-
kwea, how did you enjoy your first "hurricane"?
Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :
She certainly seems to have been close to it, though.
And the southern side of this storm would have been the worst side.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Animation of Wilma's trip across Florida. Look soon, as it advances every half hour.
Hope everyone's safe. The eye looked very large on the satellite pics. It's windy today all the way up here, even, though it's sunny and clear here so far.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Has there been any word yet from Cozumel? Is anyone still alive there? How about Cancun?
Posted by Narnia (Member # 1071) on :
I can't wait til our folks check in...the satellite pics make me nervous. Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
The Mexican army has gone into Cancun to stop looting, so apparently some people there survived. I haven't been able to find anything much on Cozumel.
All the report I can find on the Yukatan focus on the tourist areas. I haven't been able to find anything on how the Hurricane impacted the poorer parts of this region. Outside the tourist resort towns along the coasts, the Yukatan pennisula is the poorest region of Mexico with 94% of the population living below poverty level.
Posted by JaneX (Member # 2026) on :
I just reached Shlomo on the phone. He and Ela and my dad are fine. They had a lot of tree damage and the power is out, but otherwise things are okay.
~Jane~
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Good News.
I wonder how Boon's parents faired,
Posted by Boon (Member # 4646) on :
Dunno. They haven't answered their phone in 4 days. I hope they left. Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:Originally posted by Tatiana: Noemon, I'm pretty sure two storms would add if they merged. They might lose strength temporarily while merging, as the winds got more chaotic. But my guess (totally untrained in meteorology) is that as they near each other there will be a powerful attraction for each other, due to the distribution of pressures. Think about how the winds in between would tend to cancel each other out, while those around the perimeter would add to each other. I think that would lead to a very strong tendency to merge. Maybe someone who studies storms on Jupiter or Saturn can say for sure. I've never heard of two storms merging on Earth before but I think it happens on Jupiter and Saturn all the time.
I am no expert on meteorology either but I think your conclusion is wrong for these storms. If we had a storm system that had originated from a high pressure system and one that had originated from a low pressure system, I would expect them to combine. If we had a cold storm meeting up with a warm storm, I would expect realyy intense precipitation. But what we have is two low pressure tropical storm systems.
Both storm systems have low pressure in the center and higher pressures around the perimeter. As the storms approach each other, there will be a high pressure ridge between the two storms which will work against the two storms merging. There would have to some very strong fronts pushing the storms to get them over this high pressure ridge in order for the storms to merge.
Since both storms are moving counter clockwise, there will be opposing winds as the storms approach each other. In the convergence zone, winds from Wilma (which is currently to the west of alpha, will be blowing toward the north and winds from alpha will be blowing toward the south. I wouldn't want to be at sea between the two storms because the shear will be really nasty. This action will most likely weaken both storm systems.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Rabbit, I'd love to hear a meterologist's opinion on this. I'm thinking the high between the two storms would collapse rapidly in the chaotic movement from the opposing winds. Then the whole thing would form again from the outer areas inward.
I do know that tropical storms merge on Jupiter and Saturn rather frequently. I'm very curious to see what will happen. I've never heard of this happening on earth, but the storm dynamics are quite similar, from what I understand.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
I'll ask Rich about it. He's an atmospheric chemist not a meteorologist but he's had a fair number of high level meteorology classes. My guess is that the outcome will depend on the size of the storms and the relative size of the storms.
Posted by pH (Member # 1350) on :
No word from my brother or my parents.
-pH
Posted by pH (Member # 1350) on :
Nevermind, got ahold of my brother. Everyone is okay.
-pH
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
OK, The word from Rich is that the most common thing to happen when two low pressure cyclonic storms collide is that they dissipate. It's possible that they could merge and form a low pressure band but that band of storms would most commonly be far less energetic than the original storms.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Good news pH.
I hear that the best way to get messages through in a disaster is text messaging. If you send a text message, it will enter the queu and be send as soon as band width is available. Its far more efficient that dialing over and over until you manage to get through.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Tropical Storm alpha has now weakened to a trough and will no longer be tracked. Thus ends this short lived, weak, but record breaking tropical cyclone.
Now we can ask, will we have a beta this season?
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Why? Does it still need testing?
We are OK here in the Orlando area, it was a high wind day and a bit chilly, and we got lots of rain last night, but no major problems. Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
So if you zoom out one step on this map centered on Latitude26.4766North/Longitude80.8375West, HurricaneWilma path went fairly close to a straight line from the tip of the island south of Marco on the southwest coast of what is visible on the map, through the red star, through PalmBeachGardens on the northeast coast of what is visible on the map.
Hurricane force winds -- those exceeding 64knots/74mph/119kph -- extended out about 100miles/161kilometres on either side of that line; though winds were stronger south of the centerline, and weaker north of the line. The nearer to the centerline, the stronger the wind; with eyewall winds from up to 125mph/201kph at landfall on Florida's west coast to 105mph/169kph as Wilma left Florida's east coast.
Tropical force winds -- those from 34knots/39 mph/63 kph thru 63knots/73mph/118kph -- extended outward up to 260miles/418kilometres from Wilma's centerline of travel.
[ October 25, 2005, 06:16 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Risuena (Member # 2924) on :
Rabbit & Tatiana -
I just spent some time reading some of the regional papers that cover Cancún and the state of Quintana Roo. The areas are only just starting to get electricity and communications back, so we will hopefully start to hear more about their status.
The reports I've seen so far indicate that damages on Cozumel are not as severe as expected, but other areas are worse. As far as I can tell, only two deaths have been reported, although I expect that there have probably been a few more than that. Also, the tourist areas took the brunt of the damage, which is one of the reasons why's there's little information about non-tourist areas.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Rabbit, that's good to know, that they usually dissipate.
BunnV's parents said there was pretty high winds and some flooding in Miami.
Posted by Altáriël of Dorthonion (Member # 6473) on :
Ah crap, another hurricane?! Is mother nature on crack this year, or is she just pissed off at the South East?
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Three of the nine most intense hurricanes since measurements began have occurred in the past two months, four of the nine have occurred within the past 14months, and six of the nine have occurred since 1998. So it may well be that MotherEarth is making payback to US for producing ~25% of the world's man-made greenhouse gas emissions while having less than 4.6% of the world population.
[ October 25, 2005, 06:07 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Risuena, which papers are you reading? Because I'm finding zilch about Cozumel beyond that the pier got reduced to car-sized rubble strewn about, and virtually nothing about the Yucatan beyond dribbles about the two major resort cities.
Posted by Risuena (Member # 2924) on :
Glancing through them again today, still no electricity in Cozumel or Isla Mujeres, but some stores are reopening and boat service has restarted to the mainland, so both islands should be starting to get food now. The papers are reporting that reconstruction efforts are starting today and Cancun will supposedly be fine in two months (I almost believe that since the tourist areas were most affected and Mexico's going to want to repair them as soon as possible to get all the tourism money again).
Although I don't see any articles saying this today, yesterday the ones about Cozumel basically said that although every building on the island was affected by Wilma, it was mostly broken windows and cosmetic damage, not structural. They may be revising that now that they've had more time to evaluate. Cozumel has also reported no deaths, although the overall numbers have increased a bit for the rest of the affected areas.
Additionally, the papers are also showing Havana, Cuba and the flooding that's occured there since Wilma passed over.
Posted by Farmgirl (Member # 5567) on :
quote: Three of the nine most intense hurricanes since measurements began have occurred in the past two months
And aspectre -- just what year did "measurements begin" in that way? I mean where they were able to measure things like 882 mb? I'm just curious how big a span of the century we are talking - because they have much more sophisticated instruments now than they did, say, around the turn of the century.
FG
Posted by DarkKnight (Member # 7536) on :
quote: So it may well be that MotherEarth is making payback to US for producing ~25% of the world's man-made greenhouse gas emissions while having less than 4.6% of the world population
DarkKnight, I can't help but notice that not one of the articles you link comes from a respected, reviewed, scientific publication. If you were to look at those sources, you would find the opposite answer.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Actually, Farmgirl, that's a rather good question. First, there really hasn't been a major improvement on weather barometers since 1843 when the first commericial-grade bellows-type aneroid barometer was prototyped. Any increase in sophistication since then -- eg electronic barometers, barometers with radio transceivers, etc -- have been more for cosmetics, sturdiness, portability, ease of use, and remote access than for increased accuracy.
Naturally since folks back then didn't live&work in climate-controlled buildings and couldn't just flip on the radio for a weather report, spending money on a device which could give hint to future weather was an extremely popular choice. Especially for those in charge of farms and maritime work. So the USNationalWeatherService maintains barometric records of hurricanes all the way back to 1851.
You may notice that the intensity ranking in the first NationalHurricaneCenter link is for hurricanes making landfall in the US. What you may not know is that the main financial impetus for establishing national weather services in maritime nations -- especially GreatBritain and the US -- was to provide weather information to their navies and the maritime industry. A farmer pretty much hasta take weather as it comes. A sailor can sail around it; or sail into it, should the winds and currents be favorable. So it was very important for the navies and the maritime trade to know weather conditions out at sea. As mutual assistance to provide needed information to each other, copies of ships' weather logs were routinely turned over to the local national weather service when ships made harbor.
Thus there was a rather large and statisticly significant data base of barometric pressures recorded by ships caught out at sea. Not quite random enough though, what with the strong bias toward reporting lower intensity hurricanes because ships with the bad luck of sailing through the strongest hurricanes were often sunk. And until the advent of automatic recording devices, sailors were often too busy working to stay alive to be able to spend time paying attention to the barometer.
In other words, there are tons of records of nearly (due to the sinkings) random ship encounters with hurricanes since 1851.* At least until a bit after 1900, when the navies' and shippers' need for weather news made them amongst the very first to adopt radio after its invention. What is good news for sailors -- the majority of ships being able to sail around the worst parts of storms after reports of first encounters by the unlucky few -- is bad news for data collection. The 1912 sinking of the Titanic caused the maritime industry to make radios mandatory on all large ships -- ie those most likely to survive hurricanes -- further detracting from the randomness of hurricane barometric sampling. The 1937 sinking of the ?Alcon? extended that maritime legal mandate to all ships, so even fewer ships were likely to cross paths with the eye of a hurricane.
WWII brought radar and, after the war, even greater ease in hurricane avoidance for ships. However, it also brought extremely sturdy aircraft built to survive intense wingloading during combat maneuvering and over-pressures generated by anti-aircraft fire through multiple redundancy of key components in case of failure of structural members. And hot shot pilots with the nerve to fly them into hurricanes. So shortly after the war, the HurricaneHunters began flying for the NationalWeatherService, with their coverage of hurricanes at sea limited only by their fuel supply and suitable airports for takeoff and landing. And the USNavy has weather aircraft on their carriers; with their reports also being consolidated into the NationalWeatherService's database.
Hence my best estimate is that there exists an extremely strong hurricane database for analysis of the past 50years, perhaps a couple or so less, with less complete and thus less statisticly trustable data on hurricanes at sea for 154years.
* Whether they have been properly collated&archived for study Probably would have to question the NationalWeatherService, cuz I can't find data on the NationalHurricaneCenter's website. I do know that UK climatologists seeking clues to past climate conditions have recently been delving into those old ships' logs for information regarding past weather.
[ October 25, 2005, 09:02 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by DarkKnight (Member # 7536) on :
Rabbit... The BBC is not respected? National Geographic is not respected?
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
They are respected news organizations, they are not respected, reviewed scientific journals. There is a major difference.
[ October 25, 2005, 06:26 PM: Message edited by: The Rabbit ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Thank you, Risuena, I'll have to give those sites a looksee.
Apparently, DarkKnight, I made the same mistake with my reply this time that Rabbit objected to on another posting earlier within this thread: failure to provide enough emphasis. In this case, I should have italicized "So it may well be that MotherEarth..." to indicate less than surety inregard to the GlobalWarming theory's applicability to the HurricaneIntensification hypothesis. But then if I meant to indicate full confidence rather than a "hrrrm... this is interesting" in reply to Altáriël of Dorthonion, my statement would have started "MotherEarth is..."
On the other hand, Rabbit has good reason to mention that your links should be taken with a large grain of salt. Science reporting in general interest magazines/newspapers/television/etc is far too often misleading or just flat-out wrong. Enough so that I wonder whether the reporters --and the editors who watch over those reporters -- have even an inkling of interest in the sciences.
Though in the case of reporting on GlobalWarming, it could just be the media's desire to generate enough revenue to keep the news operation running and the media's attitude of "bend over backwards to be even-handed" as counter to charges of liberal bias running roughshod over reporting the facts. I mean let's face it, most advertisers are selling junk that no one in their right mind would purchase, junk that produces a lot of energy waste and lots of unnecessary pollution. And most customers are buying that junk because they've been convinced through the media that being wasteful is status enhancing. So every "liberal" media report on GlobalWarming hasta be "balanced" with caveats from professional liars to give customers an excuse to continue buying junk; lest advertisers pull their ad dollars and/or customers cancel their subscriptions to show their displeasure with exposure to facts which demonstrate that over-indulging their desires is immoral.
And yes, the BBC does have political pressures which cause their editors to bend over backward by repeatedly soliciting the same ol' antiGlobalWarming quotes from the same ol' weather forecaster who sells his services to energy firms as the "balance" against the general scientific consensus.
[ October 25, 2005, 07:47 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Incidentally, DarkKnight, your links are interesting enough for you to post as a topic for discussion on a thread of its own. And should you do so, coherent enough to make it worth my time to correct the disinformation within those links.
[ October 25, 2005, 08:56 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Boon (Member # 4646) on :
If anyone was wondering, my in-laws are fine. They lost about half the shingles on their roof, and, wonder of wonders, they had gone to a shelter.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Always good to hear, Boon, that Hatrackers and their relatives and friends are doing well. Especially after being held in suspense. Guess the BigBadWolf's huffing and puffing convinced your in-laws to move to the solid brick house.
* Last NHC advisory at 5pmEDT yesterday ** GOES-East geosynchronous satellite photograph of the northern half of the hemisphere; with the USWestCoast nearing the western horizon, and the western edges of WesternEurope appearing on the extreme eastern horizon. *** Last NHC 3day path projection **** Click to enlarge the polar projection, then scroll to the left bottom of map. Follow the curved ring/latitude line just north of Canada's Newfoundland through the Atlantic to the EnglishChannel then France.
[ October 26, 2005, 12:38 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
Hi all, This is the first time I've been able to get to a wireless hot spot. Finally the Starbuck's near me has power. (almost nothing else does.) I still have no power at home and there is a 3 hour (at least) wait for the laundrymat I found that is on a generator. My clothes are filthy but I really don't want to wait 3 hours. sigh. I am rapidly running out of gas for my car but the waits at the gas stations are getting shorter, thank goodness. The store I work at still has no power so I've been sent to another in the area that does, so at least I'm getting paid now. My patio is demolished. It's actually quite remarkable. The whole roofed, screened in area caved in and I had scrap metal on my house roof. It took a little of my real roof with it when it went. Added complaint : Ice cold showers suck! But at least I have running water now. /end complaining Good news- I am ok and everyone I love survived fine as well, though none of us has power yet. (this is Sunday, 1 week later ..guess I still had a complaint left in me) Power company is doing all they can but there are 3 concrete power poles down on my grid so it will be a while. They said maybe till November 22. BUT I'M OK! I won't be around for a while but I miss you all and will be back soon.
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
I'm still at Starbucks (ahhh ac) somebody say "hi" to me, I'm lonely. Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Hello Treason!
Sorry you're without power, but as you said, you're okay. That's what counts. Do you have a gas or electric stove?
Posted by ElJay (Member # 6358) on :
Oh my goodness! I'm glad you're okay, but so sorry about all the other crap. No power 'til November 22nd? That's awful! I hope that was a worst-case estimate and they get it on much sooner. Good luck!
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Good to hear from you, Treason. Still love Florida, hurricanes and all? And good to hear that things are at least starting to return to normal for your area, even though you're obviously having to rough it a bit. Cold showers and no power until Thanksgiving? ...bbbbbbrrrrrr... Just keep in mind, "I will survive"
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
Yay! Thanks guys. I had horrible visions of coming back to Starbuck's today and seeing nobody posted here. I would have felt so abandoned. Thanks for the encouragement! It will get better, eventually. Noemon, I have an electric stove. I've been using the grill on the (non-existant) patio for beans and spaghettio's and such. Thankfully, some of the restaurants are open now so my boyfriend has been bringing home take-out every night. aspectre, I never did love Florida. Bah, heat all the time and hurricanes and 1 week of "winter". Pooh on Florida. Thanks again Noemon, ElJay and aspectre!
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
By the way, how did all the other Floridians fare? Ela lives here too, right? I know there are others. Post here if you can and I'll check next time I get to a Starbucks. Hope everyone is fine!
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Man, not having a stove for a month would be rough--I feel for you. I expect that supplies are limited right now, but you might try to get your hands on a camping stove. A solar powered oven would probably be better for you than gas, since I expect that getting your hands on gas cannisters will be tricky.
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
Ohhh, I didn't even know they had solar powered ovens. (For outside, yes? Without buying a solar panel for my roof?) That sounds cool. I'll look into it. Thanks!
Posted by Boon (Member # 4646) on :
You can build one yourself with some cardboard boxes, a piece of plexiglass, and some aluminum foil.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Yep, they're just for the outside. I've been looking for reviews of different models for you, but so far I haven't had a lot of luck--I've only found one. Here it is. Doesn't sound like an ideal solution, but in a hot sunny area like you're in it should perform better than it did for the reviewer, I'd think.
Posted by Boon (Member # 4646) on :
Here is an inexpensive solar cooker. Looks like a grill or something, but there isn't any real description of it, so it's hard to say.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Boon beat me to it--I was just about to tell you that after doing some digging, I thought that you might as well just build your own. It'll be cheaper, and you'll have it more quickly than if you had to wait for it to be shipped.
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
Wow. Thanks guys! I'll have my boyfriend (the "I can build that" guy) see if he can build one. Neat!
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Glad to have been of help! Let us know how well it works once you guys have it built.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
There was a thread about it...Glen Arnold asked about solar ovens, and I dug up some things...they are all over the internet...
Well, no I'll probably never get it built... I HAVE POWER!!!!!!! BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Posted by Treason (Member # 7587) on :
And, though I love you guys dearly...I'm off to play WoW!
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
I guess I'm back .
As Adam and JaneX reported, we didn't have power immediately after the storm. It went out about 5 or 6 am. The storm also knocked out our phone, though we discovered late Monday afternoon that the line we normally use for our computer dial-up worked. No one knows that number, except the few people we called to give it to when we discovered it worked, so we got very few calls last week. It's also not listed in our name, but in the name of someone who had it over 5 years ago. My husband once called the phone company to correct the error, but gave up after being kept on hold for over an hour - after all, we only use it for the computer, right?
We were surprised when the power came back on Tuesday night after the storm, at midnight. But the AC started making a terrible noise (at first I thought it was someone's generator) and my husband got up and turned it off. We soon discovered that we had partial power - 110V instead of 220V. This meant that some lights and the refrigerators worked, but the AC, stove, washing machine and dishwasher did not, some of the lights were dimmed, and some of the outlets only had half power. My husband went around with a lamp to test which outlets had full power, and then ran an extension cord from my daughter's room to my son's computer, so he could finish working on his college application.
I ended up having to bail out the dishwasher with a turkey baster after my husband tried to run it - it filled up with water but wouldn't run.
We had a lot of big tree branches knocked down all around the house, but, fortunately, no damage at all to the house. My husband (with a little help from me) spent Thursday cutting and cleaning up many of the large tree branches that fell in front of our house. After unsuccessfully trying to obtain a chain saw (ha!) he unwrapped a very large brand-new hand saw, which had come from his dad's hardware store when they closed it many years ago, and used that. He has spent several more days cleaning the debris off the roof, and in the back yard, and still isn't finished. We will still need to get a professional to prune broken branches off all our trees - which will be a very expensive proposition.
On the Friday after the storm, as I was trying to figure out how to cook the Sabbath meal in a microwave, the power company came and turned off our power again, leaving me with half-cooked pasta and cold (but, fortunately, cooked) chicken. Turns out there was a live wire in the palm tree across the street.
Two days later, on Sunday night, we got back our partial power, and on Monday a week ago we got full power. Seems like each utility guy was a "one-trick" pony. One came to turn off the power, but he couldn't fix the downed line. Next guy came and cut away the loose line so he could turn on partial power, and so forth. Each time the whole neighborhood came out to watch and asked "how come" whoever was there couldn't do the whole job at once.
I spent all day Tuesday doing laundry. I never thought I would be so happy to be able to clean and do laundry. And take a hot shower. We were pretty fortunate that the weather was a pleasant temperature the whole time our AC was off.
The phone was fixed Wednesday night, and I could finally get back online without worrying that I was tying up the phone line. I did have some competition from the rest of the family, though.
Shlomo's school reopened last Thursday. I've been pretty busy since then trying to catch up with tasks that I couldn't do with no power.
And that's the abbreviated story of what happened to us in Hurricane Wilma.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:We soon discovered that we had partial power - 110V instead of 220V
If I understand correctly, in the US, even in Florida, power comes to your house at 110 V. 220 V outlets have two 110 volt lines.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Oh, and Ela its good to have you back in one piece.
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit:
quote:We soon discovered that we had partial power - 110V instead of 220V
If I understand correctly, in the US, even in Florida, power comes to your house at 110 V. 220 V outlets have two 110 volt lines.
Yes, and one of the electrical lines serving our house and 6 other houses between here and the corner of our street was severed and dangling in the palm tree across the street after the storm came through. So we only had half the amount of power we should normally have been getting to the house.
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit: Oh, and Ela its good to have you back in one piece.
Thanks. Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Yes, most residential power feeds are 220V, with a grounded center leg. So you have ground, +110V, and -110V on your three legs. Normal lights, outlets, and other 110V feeds are distributed roughly half and half on these two legs (from ground to one leg or the other), while dryers, air conditioners, and other 220V feeds go directly from the +110V to the -110V legs.
If something happens to one leg, like a short to ground or an open circuit, you are left with half the plugs and lights in your building out, a confusing situation. Any motors that run long on half power will burn up if not protected, so it's very smart to turn off the AC or any appliances that have a funny looking (220V) plug, even if they are still halfway working.
Ela, I'm glad your power is back on now. It's great to be able to be clean, isn't it? Every time I lose power, I realize that I don't appreciate it enough during regular times. I think the worst part of being a homeless person for me would be not being able to bathe every day.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
Thanks Tatiana. I appreciate the explanation. It's always good to have an EE around.
Posted by Ela (Member # 1365) on :
quote:Originally posted by Tatiana: YEla, I'm glad your power is back on now. It's great to be able to be clean, isn't it? Every time I lose power, I realize that I don't appreciate it enough during regular times. I think the worst part of being a homeless person for me would be not being able to bathe every day.
Yeah, I definitely missed hot baths.
Even not being able to wash dishes in hot water felt somehow less clean to me. And I was calculating how long it would be before I would have to brave a laudromat, along with all the other Floridians who had no power in their homes.
And thanks for the great explanation.
We are fortunate that our loss of electricity was for a relatively short time. Some still haven't gotten their power restored.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
Sorry, Farmgirl, I generated a bit of disinformation earlier. KerryEmanuel has stated: ...we have only been measuring the intensity of storms over the open ocean thoroughly and accurately for about 35 years, so in such a short record, record-breaking events are not that unusual and should not, by themselves, be cause for undue concern.
Which matches the 35year database of the researchers who wrote the paper supporting the HurricaneIntensification hypothesis arising from GlobalWarmingTheory.
My guess as to the cause for that difference from my earlier estimate of a ~50year "extremely strong hurricane database" would be that advances in miniaturization of transistorized circuitry finally allowed the common use of dropsondes to directly measure minimum barometric pressures within a hurricane. Whereas between postWWII and ~1970, I'd guess that most recorded minimum barometric pressures were estimates derived from the actual barometric measurements taken at flight altitude on the HurricaneHunter aircraft themselves. Because of better&smaller electronics, there probably was also an increased accuracy in measurements of maximum sustained windspeed due to improved aircraft position tracking and to the placement of weather-doppler radar onto the HurricaneHunters.
[ November 09, 2005, 06:10 AM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
For Noeman, Tatiana, and Rabbit: shoulda remembered to post this earlier, the Fujiwhara Effect. More later.
BTW: Who deleted? or what the heck happened to? the Katrina thread??? Which is what I was looking for before I became sidetracked rereading the other old hurricane threads.
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And wondering why the NationalHurricaneCenter hasta print advisories in capital letters. It's not like the rest of their website is written that way. It's not like they don't have the time to make proper use of capitalization: the advisories are usually posted online ~15minutes before scheduled.![[Dont Know]](graemlins/dontknow.gif)
Probably would have to question the NationalWeatherService, cuz I can't find data on the NationalHurricaneCenter's website. ![[Cry]](graemlins/cry.gif)