posted
Hm. That's really odd. The story appears to be gone from their site. The link still works for me, but I suspect that that's because the page is cached.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
Noemon, I'm pretty sure two storms would add if they merged. They might lose strength temporarily while merging, as the winds got more chaotic. But my guess (totally untrained in meteorology) is that as they near each other there will be a powerful attraction for each other, due to the distribution of pressures. Think about how the winds in between would tend to cancel each other out, while those around the perimeter would add to each other. I think that would lead to a very strong tendency to merge. Maybe someone who studies storms on Jupiter or Saturn can say for sure. I've never heard of two storms merging on Earth before but I think it happens on Jupiter and Saturn all the time.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
So my husband took down our sukkah before the holiday is over, for the first time ever. We don't want it to take flight in 70 mph winds we keep hearing we'll be getting.
Now, I have to go cook for the holiday which is starting tomorrow night, in case our power goes out tonight, Our power goes out in a routine thunder storm, never mind a hurricane, and we have an electric stove.
Posts: 5771 | Registered: Nov 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
My power goes out as well in a regular storm. I do not like the thought of another 2 days without ac in South Florida again. Posts: 870 | Registered: Mar 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
My electricity has already flickered off a couple times, but I got most of my cooking done.
I usually turn the ac to a cooler temp before a storm - it gives us a little more time before we reach the uncomfortable stage if the power goes off.
Posts: 5771 | Registered: Nov 2000
| IP: Logged |
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE CENTER...IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF...FLORIDA...EARLY MONDAY MORNING
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND WILMA COULD BE...MAJOR HURRICANE...STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE...COAST MONDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...IS ESTIMATED TO BE 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT [2.7to5.1metres] ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL
pH: Wilma expanded the breadth of its hurricane force winds by a significant distance since leaving Cozumel/Cancun. Even if Wilma stays exactly on it's predicted course, there is a chance that UoM will experience hurricane force winds&rain of CategoryOne. The good news is that buildings at the University of Miami can easily withstand Cat.3 hurricanes. With enough confidence in standing up to stronger hurricanes that evacuees from the FloridaKeys are being housed there for the duration, even though the choice of shelter was made when a Cat.4 or Cat.5 landfall was still feared.
Boon: Your in-laws survived a northern edge of Andrew coming at them from the east, after travel across ~100miles of land caused major weakening. Wilma's eye is forecast to make landfall directly on the coast around 10miles from where they live inland, with possibly Cat.3 winds&rain. Since the hurricane left the Yucatan, the NHC's forecast of Wilma's path has been very accurate. Where I lived in Tampa, ya couldn't dig much more than a yard/metre down without hitting water. If your in-laws are similarly located, that would mean that their home is lower compared to the ocean than the height of the expected storm surge. About the only saving grace is that the freeway curving around them might be high enough to act as a levee. Haven't been there, so I wouldn't know. But if I were them, I'd rent an interior third-floor room in a nearby major hotel for tonight, and park my car on the third floor of an enclosed multi-story garage.
* And no, I ain't psychic. Boon posted an earlier link to a map of her in-laws' location.
posted
The wind is picking up here, and we have had a few more power flickers. Think it's time to shut down the computer, for now.
Posts: 5771 | Registered: Nov 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
By the last several NHC reports: HurricaneWilma's center will make landfall with strong Category3/125+mph/200+kph winds near Naples, pass directly over LakeOkeechobee, and enter the Atlantic near FortPierce. Zoom out one step on this map until both coasts appear. Naples is on the southwest of the Gulf coastline, and FortPierce is on the northwest of the Atlantic coastline.
Posts: 8501 | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged |
posted
By the time I posted the above, HurricaneWilma's center had made a 6:30amETD Florida landfall at CapeRomano. Nope, no city or town, no name on the map. Just the point where the red star is.
By 7:00amETD, HurricaneWilma's winds had decreased to 120mph/193kph , stillCategory3, and its center had moved to the red-starred point on this map
Straightline projection through the two red stars indicates that HurricaneWilma's center will graze the southern end of LakeOkeechobee, then exit Florida into the Atlantic a bit south of PortSt.Lucie
At 9:00amEDT, HurricaneWilma's maximum sustained winds have fallen to 110mph/177kph, high CategoryTwo, and the current position of its center is about two-thirds north on the line between LakeOkeechobee and Miami.
posted
Animation of Wilma's trip across Florida. Look soon, as it advances every half hour.
Hope everyone's safe. The eye looked very large on the satellite pics. It's windy today all the way up here, even, though it's sunny and clear here so far.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
The Mexican army has gone into Cancun to stop looting, so apparently some people there survived. I haven't been able to find anything much on Cozumel.
All the report I can find on the Yukatan focus on the tourist areas. I haven't been able to find anything on how the Hurricane impacted the poorer parts of this region. Outside the tourist resort towns along the coasts, the Yukatan pennisula is the poorest region of Mexico with 94% of the population living below poverty level.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
I just reached Shlomo on the phone. He and Ela and my dad are fine. They had a lot of tree damage and the power is out, but otherwise things are okay.
quote:Originally posted by Tatiana: Noemon, I'm pretty sure two storms would add if they merged. They might lose strength temporarily while merging, as the winds got more chaotic. But my guess (totally untrained in meteorology) is that as they near each other there will be a powerful attraction for each other, due to the distribution of pressures. Think about how the winds in between would tend to cancel each other out, while those around the perimeter would add to each other. I think that would lead to a very strong tendency to merge. Maybe someone who studies storms on Jupiter or Saturn can say for sure. I've never heard of two storms merging on Earth before but I think it happens on Jupiter and Saturn all the time.
I am no expert on meteorology either but I think your conclusion is wrong for these storms. If we had a storm system that had originated from a high pressure system and one that had originated from a low pressure system, I would expect them to combine. If we had a cold storm meeting up with a warm storm, I would expect realyy intense precipitation. But what we have is two low pressure tropical storm systems.
Both storm systems have low pressure in the center and higher pressures around the perimeter. As the storms approach each other, there will be a high pressure ridge between the two storms which will work against the two storms merging. There would have to some very strong fronts pushing the storms to get them over this high pressure ridge in order for the storms to merge.
Since both storms are moving counter clockwise, there will be opposing winds as the storms approach each other. In the convergence zone, winds from Wilma (which is currently to the west of alpha, will be blowing toward the north and winds from alpha will be blowing toward the south. I wouldn't want to be at sea between the two storms because the shear will be really nasty. This action will most likely weaken both storm systems.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
Rabbit, I'd love to hear a meterologist's opinion on this. I'm thinking the high between the two storms would collapse rapidly in the chaotic movement from the opposing winds. Then the whole thing would form again from the outer areas inward.
I do know that tropical storms merge on Jupiter and Saturn rather frequently. I'm very curious to see what will happen. I've never heard of this happening on earth, but the storm dynamics are quite similar, from what I understand.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
I'll ask Rich about it. He's an atmospheric chemist not a meteorologist but he's had a fair number of high level meteorology classes. My guess is that the outcome will depend on the size of the storms and the relative size of the storms.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
OK, The word from Rich is that the most common thing to happen when two low pressure cyclonic storms collide is that they dissipate. It's possible that they could merge and form a low pressure band but that band of storms would most commonly be far less energetic than the original storms.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
| IP: Logged |
I hear that the best way to get messages through in a disaster is text messaging. If you send a text message, it will enter the queu and be send as soon as band width is available. Its far more efficient that dialing over and over until you manage to get through.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
Tropical Storm alpha has now weakened to a trough and will no longer be tracked. Thus ends this short lived, weak, but record breaking tropical cyclone.
Now we can ask, will we have a beta this season?
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
| IP: Logged |
We are OK here in the Orlando area, it was a high wind day and a bit chilly, and we got lots of rain last night, but no major problems. Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged |
So if you zoom out one step on this map centered on Latitude26.4766North/Longitude80.8375West, HurricaneWilma path went fairly close to a straight line from the tip of the island south of Marco on the southwest coast of what is visible on the map, through the red star, through PalmBeachGardens on the northeast coast of what is visible on the map.
Hurricane force winds -- those exceeding 64knots/74mph/119kph -- extended out about 100miles/161kilometres on either side of that line; though winds were stronger south of the centerline, and weaker north of the line. The nearer to the centerline, the stronger the wind; with eyewall winds from up to 125mph/201kph at landfall on Florida's west coast to 105mph/169kph as Wilma left Florida's east coast.
Tropical force winds -- those from 34knots/39 mph/63 kph thru 63knots/73mph/118kph -- extended outward up to 260miles/418kilometres from Wilma's centerline of travel.
I just spent some time reading some of the regional papers that cover Cancún and the state of Quintana Roo. The areas are only just starting to get electricity and communications back, so we will hopefully start to hear more about their status.
The reports I've seen so far indicate that damages on Cozumel are not as severe as expected, but other areas are worse. As far as I can tell, only two deaths have been reported, although I expect that there have probably been a few more than that. Also, the tourist areas took the brunt of the damage, which is one of the reasons why's there's little information about non-tourist areas.
Posts: 959 | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged |
posted
Ah crap, another hurricane?! Is mother nature on crack this year, or is she just pissed off at the South East?
Posts: 3389 | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged |
Three of the nine most intense hurricanes since measurements began have occurred in the past two months, four of the nine have occurred within the past 14months, and six of the nine have occurred since 1998. So it may well be that MotherEarth is making payback to US for producing ~25% of the world's man-made greenhouse gas emissions while having less than 4.6% of the world population.
posted
Risuena, which papers are you reading? Because I'm finding zilch about Cozumel beyond that the pier got reduced to car-sized rubble strewn about, and virtually nothing about the Yucatan beyond dribbles about the two major resort cities.
Posts: 8501 | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged |
Glancing through them again today, still no electricity in Cozumel or Isla Mujeres, but some stores are reopening and boat service has restarted to the mainland, so both islands should be starting to get food now. The papers are reporting that reconstruction efforts are starting today and Cancun will supposedly be fine in two months (I almost believe that since the tourist areas were most affected and Mexico's going to want to repair them as soon as possible to get all the tourism money again).
Although I don't see any articles saying this today, yesterday the ones about Cozumel basically said that although every building on the island was affected by Wilma, it was mostly broken windows and cosmetic damage, not structural. They may be revising that now that they've had more time to evaluate. Cozumel has also reported no deaths, although the overall numbers have increased a bit for the rest of the affected areas.
Additionally, the papers are also showing Havana, Cuba and the flooding that's occured there since Wilma passed over.
Posts: 959 | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged |
quote: Three of the nine most intense hurricanes since measurements began have occurred in the past two months
And aspectre -- just what year did "measurements begin" in that way? I mean where they were able to measure things like 882 mb? I'm just curious how big a span of the century we are talking - because they have much more sophisticated instruments now than they did, say, around the turn of the century.
quote: So it may well be that MotherEarth is making payback to US for producing ~25% of the world's man-made greenhouse gas emissions while having less than 4.6% of the world population
posted
DarkKnight, I can't help but notice that not one of the articles you link comes from a respected, reviewed, scientific publication. If you were to look at those sources, you would find the opposite answer.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
| IP: Logged |
posted
Actually, Farmgirl, that's a rather good question. First, there really hasn't been a major improvement on weather barometers since 1843 when the first commericial-grade bellows-type aneroid barometer was prototyped. Any increase in sophistication since then -- eg electronic barometers, barometers with radio transceivers, etc -- have been more for cosmetics, sturdiness, portability, ease of use, and remote access than for increased accuracy.
Naturally since folks back then didn't live&work in climate-controlled buildings and couldn't just flip on the radio for a weather report, spending money on a device which could give hint to future weather was an extremely popular choice. Especially for those in charge of farms and maritime work. So the USNationalWeatherService maintains barometric records of hurricanes all the way back to 1851.
You may notice that the intensity ranking in the first NationalHurricaneCenter link is for hurricanes making landfall in the US. What you may not know is that the main financial impetus for establishing national weather services in maritime nations -- especially GreatBritain and the US -- was to provide weather information to their navies and the maritime industry. A farmer pretty much hasta take weather as it comes. A sailor can sail around it; or sail into it, should the winds and currents be favorable. So it was very important for the navies and the maritime trade to know weather conditions out at sea. As mutual assistance to provide needed information to each other, copies of ships' weather logs were routinely turned over to the local national weather service when ships made harbor.
Thus there was a rather large and statisticly significant data base of barometric pressures recorded by ships caught out at sea. Not quite random enough though, what with the strong bias toward reporting lower intensity hurricanes because ships with the bad luck of sailing through the strongest hurricanes were often sunk. And until the advent of automatic recording devices, sailors were often too busy working to stay alive to be able to spend time paying attention to the barometer.
In other words, there are tons of records of nearly (due to the sinkings) random ship encounters with hurricanes since 1851.* At least until a bit after 1900, when the navies' and shippers' need for weather news made them amongst the very first to adopt radio after its invention. What is good news for sailors -- the majority of ships being able to sail around the worst parts of storms after reports of first encounters by the unlucky few -- is bad news for data collection. The 1912 sinking of the Titanic caused the maritime industry to make radios mandatory on all large ships -- ie those most likely to survive hurricanes -- further detracting from the randomness of hurricane barometric sampling. The 1937 sinking of the ?Alcon? extended that maritime legal mandate to all ships, so even fewer ships were likely to cross paths with the eye of a hurricane.
WWII brought radar and, after the war, even greater ease in hurricane avoidance for ships. However, it also brought extremely sturdy aircraft built to survive intense wingloading during combat maneuvering and over-pressures generated by anti-aircraft fire through multiple redundancy of key components in case of failure of structural members. And hot shot pilots with the nerve to fly them into hurricanes. So shortly after the war, the HurricaneHunters began flying for the NationalWeatherService, with their coverage of hurricanes at sea limited only by their fuel supply and suitable airports for takeoff and landing. And the USNavy has weather aircraft on their carriers; with their reports also being consolidated into the NationalWeatherService's database.
Hence my best estimate is that there exists an extremely strong hurricane database for analysis of the past 50years, perhaps a couple or so less, with less complete and thus less statisticly trustable data on hurricanes at sea for 154years.
* Whether they have been properly collated&archived for study Probably would have to question the NationalWeatherService, cuz I can't find data on the NationalHurricaneCenter's website. I do know that UK climatologists seeking clues to past climate conditions have recently been delving into those old ships' logs for information regarding past weather.
posted
Thank you, Risuena, I'll have to give those sites a looksee.
Apparently, DarkKnight, I made the same mistake with my reply this time that Rabbit objected to on another posting earlier within this thread: failure to provide enough emphasis. In this case, I should have italicized "So it may well be that MotherEarth..." to indicate less than surety inregard to the GlobalWarming theory's applicability to the HurricaneIntensification hypothesis. But then if I meant to indicate full confidence rather than a "hrrrm... this is interesting" in reply to Altáriël of Dorthonion, my statement would have started "MotherEarth is..."
On the other hand, Rabbit has good reason to mention that your links should be taken with a large grain of salt. Science reporting in general interest magazines/newspapers/television/etc is far too often misleading or just flat-out wrong. Enough so that I wonder whether the reporters --and the editors who watch over those reporters -- have even an inkling of interest in the sciences.
Though in the case of reporting on GlobalWarming, it could just be the media's desire to generate enough revenue to keep the news operation running and the media's attitude of "bend over backwards to be even-handed" as counter to charges of liberal bias running roughshod over reporting the facts. I mean let's face it, most advertisers are selling junk that no one in their right mind would purchase, junk that produces a lot of energy waste and lots of unnecessary pollution. And most customers are buying that junk because they've been convinced through the media that being wasteful is status enhancing. So every "liberal" media report on GlobalWarming hasta be "balanced" with caveats from professional liars to give customers an excuse to continue buying junk; lest advertisers pull their ad dollars and/or customers cancel their subscriptions to show their displeasure with exposure to facts which demonstrate that over-indulging their desires is immoral.
And yes, the BBC does have political pressures which cause their editors to bend over backward by repeatedly soliciting the same ol' antiGlobalWarming quotes from the same ol' weather forecaster who sells his services to energy firms as the "balance" against the general scientific consensus.
posted
Incidentally, DarkKnight, your links are interesting enough for you to post as a topic for discussion on a thread of its own. And should you do so, coherent enough to make it worth my time to correct the disinformation within those links.
posted
If anyone was wondering, my in-laws are fine. They lost about half the shingles on their roof, and, wonder of wonders, they had gone to a shelter.
IP: Logged |
posted
Always good to hear, Boon, that Hatrackers and their relatives and friends are doing well. Especially after being held in suspense. Guess the BigBadWolf's huffing and puffing convinced your in-laws to move to the solid brick house.
* Last NHC advisory at 5pmEDT yesterday ** GOES-East geosynchronous satellite photograph of the northern half of the hemisphere; with the USWestCoast nearing the western horizon, and the western edges of WesternEurope appearing on the extreme eastern horizon. *** Last NHC 3day path projection **** Click to enlarge the polar projection, then scroll to the left bottom of map. Follow the curved ring/latitude line just north of Canada's Newfoundland through the Atlantic to the EnglishChannel then France.
posted
Hi all, This is the first time I've been able to get to a wireless hot spot. Finally the Starbuck's near me has power. (almost nothing else does.) I still have no power at home and there is a 3 hour (at least) wait for the laundrymat I found that is on a generator. My clothes are filthy but I really don't want to wait 3 hours. sigh. I am rapidly running out of gas for my car but the waits at the gas stations are getting shorter, thank goodness. The store I work at still has no power so I've been sent to another in the area that does, so at least I'm getting paid now. My patio is demolished. It's actually quite remarkable. The whole roofed, screened in area caved in and I had scrap metal on my house roof. It took a little of my real roof with it when it went. Added complaint : Ice cold showers suck! But at least I have running water now. /end complaining Good news- I am ok and everyone I love survived fine as well, though none of us has power yet. (this is Sunday, 1 week later ..guess I still had a complaint left in me) Power company is doing all they can but there are 3 concrete power poles down on my grid so it will be a while. They said maybe till November 22. BUT I'M OK! I won't be around for a while but I miss you all and will be back soon.
Posts: 870 | Registered: Mar 2005
| IP: Logged |
Sorry you're without power, but as you said, you're okay. That's what counts. Do you have a gas or electric stove?
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
| IP: Logged |
Printer-friendly view of this topic
![[Frown]](frown.gif)
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
![[Dont Know]](graemlins/dontknow.gif)
Probably would have to question the NationalWeatherService, cuz I can't find data on the NationalHurricaneCenter's website. ![[Cry]](graemlins/cry.gif)
