posted
I'd like to dedicate this serious thread to Eddie, Pat, Toni, and I forgot the other one.
so I'm washing the dishes last night and there's a telecourse on Channel 9 (say what you will about Utah, we have as many PBS channels as there are Major Networks if you don't count either Fox or ABC).
It's statistics for the social sciences, and their exercise is whether women were more likely to voted democrat in the 1996 general election. They found more women voted in total, and a higher proportion of them voted for Clinton. The chi squared result was that there was a less than 5% chance of type one error. But the other thing, I think the P value? said it wasn't an extremely strong correlation.
My mom said that she could feel Clinton's mojo ensnaring her whenever she heard him speak, so she would shut him off immediately. Do you think it is that?
Does anyone know of results from other years?
My theory is more younger women voted, and that younger people favor democrats more.
quote: Also, there are more Democrats than Republicans.
You mean registered?
So does that mean that for the past two elections less democrats have been turning up to vote, or are more democrats switching sides?
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posted
I don't think that's necessarily true, Desu.
It's a common phenomenon in most two party systems that the main parties have converged to a more centrist position: in Australia, this a right centrist stance, while in Germany it's more left.
But there definately are some differences - mind you, that's why I liked Bill Bradley so much because I thought he did provide something a bit different.
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posted
Aren't there more female Democrats in Congress? That might explain the voter issue, though then there's the question of why female candidates prefer the Democrat party.
Oh, and the idea of women voting for a candidate based on how sexy he is is very disturbing. I sure hope the reports of women liking Gore because he kissed his wife in public were just humorous exaggeration.
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posted
Oh, but I think it is. Men in office are pawns, the players always being the same.
Not consipracy, it is as it has been, and will be as it is, unless we change it.
I have just one thing to add; George Bush is at the head of the United States of America, do you think the man thinks for himself?
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posted
No, but I think some of that is a reflection on Dubya than an inevitable consequence of the system.
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Edited to add more stuff instead of just cluttering up this thread with more of my posts...
Shigosei - I wonder whether the Democrat party has more of a focus on attracting female candidates? I know that here the Labour party has an active policy to recruit more women.
Otherwise, maybe it goes back to Icarus' suggestion that the Democrats are perceived as more responsive to women's issues.
Also, given how white people tend to vote republican more often, it would be interesting to see statistics of how people sort out along the intersections of race and gender.
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posted
I definitely think that the mojo has something to do with it. I can see it working with Howard Dean as well. Do you guys notice that? It seems that most females that I talk to are in his corner for now, and I'm not sure if it's because they think he's the best for the job, or if it's because he's a little younger, a little in shaper, or because he's experimented with marijuana. In fact, in my limited experience, it seems like a lot of women aren't specifically loyal to a specific party. Many of them wait to see what the candidates have to say before they decide for whom they'll vote. It could be argued that this is the best way to go about it, unless the vote cast is based only on the mojo factor.
quote:I don't get why someone would go to bother of registering their affiliation but then not turn up to vote.
because at one time they actually gave a damn, and have since become cynical and bitter?
The would question anyone who thinks that they any political party member, elected offical actually thinks for themselves all the time. Concerns such as getting back into office next term and, concerns about controling the legislature all limit ones ablity to think onle for onesself.
The fact that you think that the GW Bush is an idiot is academic, meaningless to the discussion.
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posted
Fugu, race is pretty clear-cut as well. I have no reports on hand, but I've read several. As I recall, 9 out of 10 black people vote Democratic. Black women are even more overwhelmingly Democratic.
Catholics have been historically Democratic, but they're being wooed by the Republicans, primarily through the school voucher issue. Along with this group come the Latinos, a traditionally liberal group, but also strongly Catholic. While there's little Republican sentiment among Latino voters, that may change soon, especially given the Republican nomination of Miguel Estrada -- a fairly obvious political move, given that Estrada was instructed to not answer Congress' most relevant questions, and thus doomed to failure. A failure that can be blamed on the Democrats, and thus the Democrats' anti-Latino sentiment.
I'm not sure how Asians vote, nor the percentage of Democratic Caucasions vs. Republican Caucasians.
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quote: The fact that you think that the GW Bush is an idiot is academic, meaningless to the discussion.
That I believe Dubya isn't the best US President you've had wasn't actually my point. I was saying that while I do think Dubya is controlled by the team behind the scenes, the extent to which he is controlled is not something that is an inevitable consequence of the US political system.
That is, I think it's possible to have a President who is in primary control: responding to Desu's view that all politicians are pawns.
posted
As for one of the original questions, it is absolutely true that some women vote based on the mojo factor. I personally know a number of middle-aged women who vote based on which candidate they think is cuter.
No, personal anecdotal experience doesn't count as an actual statistic and it is a logical fallacy, but regardless of all that I think it is a factor. There are too many people out there who are voting ignorant of the issues at hand. Why not accept the fact that some women vote for who they think is cuter? It isn't any different than a woman/man who votes for the party line with no reason why.
posted
imogen: Well then you have my apology. I meet far to many people that dismiss Bush out of hand because they think that he isn't too bright.
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posted
I'll check Fugu's reference in a second, but I wanted to address the Mojo factor, politely referred to as charisma or "temperment". Recalling the primary between John McCain and Bush. John McCain had a lot of energy, but the energy seemed to come from outrage and not confidence. I'm not aware of an Asian voting strategy. Because we are so often a target of resentment by other minorities (we are supposedly the "model minority") we don't align with them as naturally. Also, I feel that most Asians in America see themselves as their individual nationality more than "Asian American". That is, first I'm an American, second I'm of Chinese heritage. "Asian" doesn't really mean a lot to me. But maybe that is more true of the far east - China, Korea and Japan, than smaller Asian countries that have contributed more recent immigrants.
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posted
Thirty years ago, Democrats supported women's rights and Republicans did not.
Republicans are for tight fiscal policy with emphasis on economics instead of social programs.
Democrats are for social programs instead of balanced fiscal policy.
Women have, historically, been more concerned with the hungry, the poor, and schools than men. They care about health care. They care that their children, and all children, get a good education.
These are all Democratic core issues.
When President Bush pushed his tax credit, he strove hard to push it as a credit for the common working man. He didn't quite get the message across that it was for the working woman too. And then the details showed that the entire refund for the average working family was eaten up by higher Health Insurance costs, the average woman was not impressed by it.
This is why, historically, the Democrats have had the "woman's" vote.
Now recently the Republicans have strived hard to retake it with their "Family Values" push. Yet when some of the most outspoke proponents of Family Values also push for "Woman are subservient to their husbands," this cut into that attack. When family values are seen as an attack on single mother families, those mothers will not vote Republican. When family values revolve around the idea that women should quit their jobs and stay at home, working women who cannot quit, or do not want to quit, get upset.
YEs, its just some of the fringe making those noises, but it pollutes the entire argument and drives women to the Democrats.
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quote:The party identification data on the teens are striking. Like earlier generations when they came of age, today's teens have a large proportion (50 percent) of self-described independents. But the 46 percent of the sample who declare a party preference break two to one Republican (30-16 percent). Republicans do 10 points better among the boys than among the girls (36 percent to 26 percent), but the Democrats do only 4 points better among the girls (18 percent to 14 percent). Democrats trail Republicans in both groups, but gender differences in party preferences among these young people are substantial.
I think women, especially younger women, don't like to make definitive statements. I guess this goes with the overall issue of whether women prefer a "softer way". So they will say "unaffiliated" but then vote for the guy with more mojo. (by the way, is the word mojo really offensive to anyone? being a woman, I'd rather spend all afternoon editing posts than offend anyone : }).
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quote:Lalo said: [A] fairly obvious political move, given that Estrada was instructed to not answer Congress' most relevant questions, and thus doomed to failure. A failure that can be blamed on the Democrats, and thus the Democrats' anti-Latino sentiment.
This is a mischaracterization of what happened: He refused to turn over internal working memos from his time as Assistant U.S. Solicitor General. Every living Solicitor General condemned the request for those documents, fearing a chilling effect on the internal workings of the office.
And the nomination was not doomed to failure – there were excellent reasons to think that the filibuster could be broken.
posted
making a definitive statemate on anything binds you into a position that you may have to defend, or admit that you are incorrect, by saying that you are independent, or undecided you can get let go, are not bothered by anyone.
What would also be interesting would be the break down by gender and location of people, do they live in a city or not.
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posted
But the point of the statistical analysis was that just being female does cause one to be at higher risk of voting democrat.
I think it was kind of an old show, because they introduced the idea of whether Elizabeth Dole could capitalize on* the Gender gap. She wasn't nominated and since most the women are presumed to be in the Dem party, I guess we'll never know.
This is a major problem I have with the democrats. They set up some white guy to be overseer of the minorities on the understanding he'll protect us. But I'm an asian, after all.
posted
A graphic after the 2000 election showed that most of Gore (the dem for you australians etc) support was centered around large urban areas, while less densely populated areas went with Bush. Is that what you meant, Luthe?
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