posted
I have to wonder, do any of you think that this will escalate into a major war in the middle east? Are we watching history occur right before our very eyes?
Posts: 883 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
i think it's history in the making. as much as i don't wanna see it, i think we are going to see a war.
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posted
By the way, there are threads on the other side about this, you'll find more debate going on there if interested.
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I'm rooting for the guy with the home court advantage But inappropriate levity aside, the Israelis cannot afford to lose while the Palestinians and their allies are not as vested. They insist they are, because Jerusalem is "among their 5 holiest sites."
My only question is exactly how ugly it will get.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
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I think it will get VERY ugly. Things in that area are always VERY ugly. It's so sad in a way, everyone claims to want it because it's so holy, and then all they ever do overthere is kill people in such a savage way that half the casualties are 'non combatants'. And people say we no longer practice human sacrafice.....
Posts: 1321 | Registered: Jun 2006
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I think it is going to get very bad very quickly, because the Hezbollah-Lebanese conflict will probably tear Lebanon apart, and Iran and Syria will then attack Israel. This will pull the U.S. in probably, since it is a traditional supporter of Israel, especially after Ariel Sharon's pullout earlier this year. If the U.S. attacks Syria and Lebanon, muslim extremist groups will probably claim that the U.S. is trying to attack Islam, and this will fuel greater conflict... I can only imagine.
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posted
OSC may have written about a muslim/western war, but it isn't something I think would go quite so prettily in real life. I'm not anxious at all to see it. It's hard enough watching it on TV, Isreal and Lebanon make the war in Iraq look like Disneyland.
Posts: 1321 | Registered: Jun 2006
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posted
Erm, if you are speaking of the Shadow series, the middle east was nuked. What could be less pretty than that? The subsequent war he wrote about was between Asian powers more than the West.
Posts: 11017 | Registered: Apr 2003
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posted
I think that all the leaders of these countries should be ashamed. My question is, is this a battle over religion or real estate? I am really hoping that the US doesn't get sucked into this, because if we do then it will very likely lead to WW3. there is enough of a chain reaction set up here that this could draw in most of the world on some level or another.
Posts: 104 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
We won't stay out of it... it'd be safer to stay out of it, but we helped create the mess, so in a way it's even RIGHT to try to help stop it, even if I don't think we CAN stop it. Grrrr...
As far as what pooka was saying... in the shaddow series MECCA was bombed, but that's far from saying the ENTIRE middle east was bombed, and OBVIOUSLY far from the entire muslim world having been oblitterated.
Posts: 1321 | Registered: Jun 2006
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posted
It is interesting to see the financial aspect of the whole middle eastern thing. All motives and rights and wrongs aside, US has spent way too much on the war as it is. Each american spent what, 2000 dollars on the war by now? So, the timing is perfect for Iran, Korea, whoever else to move quickly now and be less than usually afraid of the US military retaliation simply because it is making babies expensive for US to go to another war right now.
This is only an observation, I do not have a solution. It is unfortunate though, that the US Iraq attempt that is meant to stabilize the situation in Middle East, is actually destabilising it right now because of either bad financial management or overestimating US military capacity.
posted
What we spend for war does not impact our economy and our nation as much as the market's reaction to war. Ifyou follow the stock market at all (and the price of gas, etc.) you know exactly what I mean.
Our nation is much closer to being destroyed economically via a war by our reaction (financial markets) to it, than by any war spending or action itself.
9-11 should have shown us that -- look at how the markets reacted to a one-day, one time event. It took us a year to get the economy back even.
posted
I think the question is whether USA will have the support of its citizens when it enters the conflict.
Posts: 1158 | Registered: Feb 2006
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quote:Originally posted by DDDaysh: OSC may have written about a muslim/western war, but it isn't something I think would go quite so prettily in real life. I'm not anxious at all to see it. It's hard enough watching it on TV, Isreal and Lebanon make the war in Iraq look like Disneyland.
If you think that, then you aren't paying enough attention to the war in Iraq.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Oh, I'm paying attention to the war in Iraq, and live in San Antonio basically, so we get to hear all the good and horror stories. The war in Iraq however, scary as it may be, is at least going SOMEWHERE, and accomplishing something, and has a HOPE of a resolution, a chance to "get off the ride" so to speak. The war in Isreal and Lebanon is much much scarier to me, because the hatred goes back much further, and NEITHER side seems to be giving much consideration to civilian casualties.
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posted
The question is : Can "the western countries" allow Israel to be destroyed ? My answer is No. Israel existence and position is too important to be wasted.
If this islamic warmongers get their prize, they won't stop there. Sooner or later, we'll have to fight them. So if there's a war, we better get in, in time.
Or we simply surrender because ... we hate wars.
Posts: 9 | Registered: Aug 2003
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posted
Hi everybody. I just got back from Lebanon a few days ago. I regretfully have to say that what you see on american T.V. is very watered down.
Israel has failed in all their main objectives. They bombed Manar T.V., the Hesballah station, but it was brodcasting again within the hour. They blew out the power stations, but due to Lebanon's already shaky power system, most of the country is supplemented by a seperate power system. They attacked LBC and bombed cellular phone stations in order to disconnect Lebanon from the world, but they failed. All the while they have killed 750 civilians. Hesballah is unabated. They have killed 33 Israli soldiers and 19 civilians, and they continue to bomb. They are now using some long-range missiles. And Manar T.V. is still brodcasting. The entire world is starting to turn on Israel. There have even been anti-Israel protests in Tel Aviv and Haifa.
I am deeply saddened for the people of both countries.
Posts: 1594 | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
One thing that has struck me as ironic about this whole conflict is that Hezbullah has been deliberately targeting Israeli civilians, launching around 2,000 rockets in the last 3 weeks. They have been largely ineffictive as far as the killing goes.
Israel has been attempting to kill terrorists hiding out among civilians. However, they've killed many more civilians than the other side.
So Israel gets the flak for killing civilians despite doing so accidently and taking measures to avoid it, but Hezbullah doesn't get near the criticism because they can't seem to kill very many. Also, their tactic of hiding out amoung the children of their own people is rarely called reprehensible. They're bringing war to the innocent families and children.
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The only difference is, BQT, is that Israel is not just targeting millitants who are firing rockets. They are attacking all members of the political party, and any company that has declared for hesballah. They are also targeting the civilian infrastrcture. Did I mention that they attacked an LBC station in order to disrupt communications with the Western world? One of the saddest sights that I saw was an Israeli plane shooting at a car going across a bridge before actually attacking the bridge.
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posted
i have to say i'm suprised by the fact, that people from around the world are even intrested in what's going on in the middle east, and not only that, but they know the situation very well...
i know there's a lot of astrocities happening around the world that most people don't give a second thought about (well, at least me)
anyway. maybe i can help answer some questions... I'm a soldier from israel, and i can write here right now because i kinda faked an illness so i can spend a bit of time at home...
so this is a war, but not in the usual way you think of "war", because it's a large army force, using modern weaponry, agianst small squads of terrorists hiding among civilians.
do i think this will escalate into a major war in the middle east? i doubt it... altough all the arab countries are feeling sorry for lebanon and see israel as the couse for all the trouble, they won't join to help, since they care about their own countries first, and they don't want to risk themselves.
who do i think will win? that's hard to say, because it depand on what do you defy as winning... our goal, is to stop the terrorists ability to threat us. their goal is to kill all of us. i think our goal is much more obtainable. plus we can't efford to lose, so it's not even an option. (truce is a bad option right now as well, since that wil mean everything we achived up to now will be wasted, and the terrorists will regain lost stations)
how ugly will it get... if you'll see one of our northern cities, you'll see jsut how ugly it can get. people live in shelters at all times... everyday betwen 80-200 missiles fall (yesterday was a record 230+) aimed only to kill civilians. yesterday 3 soldiers died, and today i think about 5-8 soldiers died.
personally i have 2 good friend in the armored corps, and i'm afried something will happen to them
and on their side, horrible things happen as well, when civilians are being hit it's horrible, but inevtible... they were warned that the area is dengerous :/ i heard that terrorists occupied a kindegarden that was hit just so they can say we killed the children
this war is not about religion at all. you can see they refer to us as the "zionist enemy" and not jewish etc. it started because 2 of our soldiers were kidnapped (and are still held captive) and i'm sure you've heard the pherase "leave no man behind"... there's no plan to leave any.
as to what Flaming Toad on a Stick is saying... it's funny because it's like i'm reading what i just heard Nasralla say on tv right now. to spell it out, the lies he feeds his nation. as any terrorist leader would do, ofcourse... telling the true situation wouldn't help lift the morale obviously.
"All the while they have killed 750 civilians. Hesballah is unabated. They have killed 33 Israli soldiers and 19 civilians, and they continue to bomb. They are now using some long-range missiles. And Manar T.V. is still brodcasting. The entire world is starting to turn on Israel. There have even been anti-Israel protests in Tel Aviv and Haifa."
killed 750 civilians? i don't think even if our aim was to kill civilians we could kill as much! that's extremly exegurated and doesn't even make sense.
other then that, look at the tone he used when he wrote the Hesballah's achivments... proud at the death of civilians.
"There have even been anti-Israel protests in Tel Aviv and Haifa."
no... there have been anti-war protests... and it was made from about 20 people. and i know couse i've seen it. and i know what nassralla said about those protests couse i've seen him say it on T.V. and i can only laugh at the none-sense he feeds people.
like today he said an army ship was hit, and many many tanks... but he doesn't have the pictures because... well... there was fog... and... it was from a long range... and... err... it never happend.
to sum it up, i may not now the whole truth, since i know the the T.V. tells me. but i belive it is very unlikable our media will lie, since it never happend before (acctuely, they even always criticize the army) so i belive in know a thing or two about what's going on.
anyway, we can only hope this will end by next week somhow, since this situation is really bad for everyone :/
Posts: 12 | Registered: Apr 2006
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quote:The only difference is, BQT, is that Israel is not just targeting millitants who are firing rockets. They are attacking all members of the political party, and any company that has declared for hesballah.
Kind of like the USA did with the Taliban and al-Qaeda, right?
quote:They are also targeting the civilian infrastrcture. Did I mention that they attacked an LBC station in order to disrupt communications with the Western world?
Targeting infrastructure is different from deliberately targeting civilians.
Listen, I'm not saying this conflict is not a bad thing for everyone involved. I just think it shows an ideological difference when one sides mission statement is the destruction of Israel, civilians and all, and the other sides goal is the erradication of a terrorist group seeking to exterminate them.
If Israel had rogue militants shooting almost 2000 missiles into Beirut, and the Israeli government couldn't or wouldn't stop them, wouldn't you support a military option against those targets, even if they were cowardly enough to hide out among civilians? Or would you let citizens of your own city perish in order to avoid any collateral damage to the other side?
Posts: 1412 | Registered: Oct 2005
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Nottet, thank you for the first hand account. I value that and hope you appreciate that many in america are very sympathetic and hoping you can neutralize Hezbollah.
This seems clearly a struggle between evil and good, a statement that will surely infuriate many. The Arab desire to destroy Israel is simply evil, IMHO. We pray for you.
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posted
I am in strong support of Israel, one because you defending yourselves, and two, because you are fighting against the Arab Ayatollah-esque governments in Lebanon.
Keep on keeping on, and good luck.
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quote:Originally posted by DraKKenN: The question is : Can "the western countries" allow Israel to be destroyed ? My answer is No. Israel existence and position is too important to be wasted.
Why do you say so? I'm leaving the moral question completely out of this; but just taking it as a question in cold strategy, why is Israel valuable? There's no resources, and its existence is something that the extremists can point to and say "Look what the evil crusaders are doing!" And as for a stable Middle East, well, you could get more stability without Israel. "Create a desert and call it peace", sure, but the point is, it would be stable and we could buy oil in peace.
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As an aside, why is everybody suddenly calling it Hezballah, when it used to be Hezbollah? Not that it matters, I just find it curious - latinisations are usually fairly stable. Posts: 10645 | Registered: Jul 2004
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quote:Originally posted by DraKKenN: The question is : Can "the western countries" allow Israel to be destroyed ? My answer is No. Israel existence and position is too important to be wasted.
Why do you say so? I'm leaving the moral question completely out of this; but just taking it as a question in cold strategy, why is Israel valuable? There's no resources, and its existence is something that the extremists can point to and say "Look what the evil crusaders are doing!" And as for a stable Middle East, well, you could get more stability without Israel. "Create a desert and call it peace", sure, but the point is, it would be stable and we could buy oil in peace.
it's true Israel doesn't have natural resources such as oil (unless you count salt from the dead sea)
but Israel is a vital part of world buisnesses. in terms of technolagy a lot of things are happening here. (also, half a year ago an israeli won a novel prize for the games theory)
we might be a small country, but we take a large part of world affair... if we were'nt importent, you wouldn't hear about this war at all.
i think it's spelled Hezballah, because of "allah". but in any case, it's pronounced: Hiz-Bah-Lah
btw, i was participating in a royal reception ceramony for Japan's prime minister when the war acctuely "started". (our prime minister and japans were 1cm from me ^_^)
and in case you were wondering what i do in the army... i'm a military investigator (still in training though) a hard and cruel job Posts: 12 | Registered: Apr 2006
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While I understand your patriotism, I think you are badly exaggerating the economic effects of Israel. Innovative or not, there's only 7 million of you. That's nothing in either European or American trade. Besides, if Israel as a state ceased to exist, the refugees would go to America and be innovative there.
Posts: 10645 | Registered: Jul 2004
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maybe i gave the impression of exaggerating... but israel does play a role in world economics. i can't give you any good example because i'm not well edjucated in that area :s
but there's enough importent deals between nations to care about what's going on here. hmm, i know for example that we bought a lot of fighter planes from usa etc.
Posts: 12 | Registered: Apr 2006
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Um. "I don't know anything about the subject, but X is true" is not usually considered a good argument. As for fighter planes, you can't seriously think that would be enough to make a dent in the US economy, especially considering how many subsidies the deal is likely to have had. Besides, there's a whole bunch of Arabs rich from their oil, that fighter planes could be sold to, if only they wouldn't be used to blow up a US ally.
Posts: 10645 | Registered: Jul 2004
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King of Men, it looks like you are thinking in terms of pure numbers and, while I understand that is the easiest way to do a cold calculation, there are other parts that would need to be used in a cold calculation. Israel is a staunch ally. Those don't come around often. Israel also has a very large army if you consider the reserves.
Those two items, provided another war for the United States in the Middle East, are extremely valuable.
Now, another piece of the puzzle is how useful Israel is to the U.S. arms economy. Very. You may say that there are a whole bunch of rich Middle Eastern countries who would purchase them... but we already sell to the ones that we would be willing to sell to. We sell to countries that would not only hold off on an attack of Israel, but also not use the range of our crafts to perform a strike on Europe or enflame surrounding countries. So, while we can sell to other countries, we can provide Israel with a level of technology we would be unwilling to give other countries. This is useful to our own military by testing technologies which we haven't yet been able to employ.
Furthermore, Israel's experiences dealing with terrorism translate to that of the United States quite easily. Israel, in my opinion, has far more expertise in dealing with terrorism due to dealing with it day to day. That experience alone can be extremely valuable via books, observers, training, etc.
Those are just a few of the less looked at reasons, when calculated 'coldly'(which really should never be done in matters of war because the human element is always the most important), that provide the 'West' with strategic reason to keep Israel from succumbing to the opposition.
Posts: 1 | Registered: Aug 2006
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quote:Originally posted by RunningBear: I am in strong support of Israel, one because you defending yourselves, and two, because you are fighting against the Arab Ayatollah-esque governments in Lebanon.
Keep on keeping on, and good luck.
Lebanon is democratic. Hesballah's party holds only 18% of the seats in government.
Notter, I got the information from this article here.
quote: it started because 2 of our soldiers were kidnapped (and are still held captive) and i'm sure you've heard the pherase "leave no man behind"... there's no plan to leave any.
Hesballah captured those soldiers in order to barter for the release of hundreds of men who are being held captive, without trial, for years. I fail to see why you use the word kidnapped.
Israeli expansionist parties hold more power in Israel than Hesballah holds in Lebanon.
quote: and on their side, horrible things happen as well, when civilians are being hit it's horrible, but inevtible... they were warned that the area is dengerous :/
Yes, they were told to leave the area, after the bridges and roads were bombed.
[ August 05, 2006, 01:31 PM: Message edited by: Flaming Toad on a Stick ]
Posts: 1594 | Registered: Apr 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Keptin: King of Men, it looks like you are thinking in terms of pure numbers and, while I understand that is the easiest way to do a cold calculation, there are other parts that would need to be used in a cold calculation. Israel is a staunch ally. Those don't come around often.
Well, of course it is - against the people who are trying to destroy it! I mean, it's a bit of a no-brainer for them. Absent Israel, would we actually need an ally in the Middle East?
quote:Israel also has a very large army if you consider the reserves.
That will certainly be very useful the next time the Arab nations invade Europe - oh, wait.
quote:Those two items, provided another war for the United States in the Middle East, are extremely valuable.
Yes, 'provided'.
quote:Now, another piece of the puzzle is how useful Israel is to the U.S. arms economy. Very. You may say that there are a whole bunch of rich Middle Eastern countries who would purchase them... but we already sell to the ones that we would be willing to sell to. We sell to countries that would not only hold off on an attack of Israel, but also not use the range of our crafts to perform a strike on Europe or enflame surrounding countries. So, while we can sell to other countries, we can provide Israel with a level of technology we would be unwilling to give other countries. This is useful to our own military by testing technologies which we haven't yet been able to employ.
Ok, fair enough. On the other hand, is this sort of 'lab and market' really as valuable as the subsidies?
quote:Furthermore, Israel's experiences dealing with terrorism translate to that of the United States quite easily. Israel, in my opinion, has far more expertise in dealing with terrorism due to dealing with it day to day. That experience alone can be extremely valuable via books, observers, training, etc.
And again, this assumes that the Arabs would still be at odds with us absent Israel. Now that's certainly possible, but I think you are taking it too much for granted.
Posts: 10645 | Registered: Jul 2004
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Flaming Toad on a Stick:
Hesballah captured those soldiers in order to barter for the release of hundreds of men who are being held captive, without trial, for years. I fail to see why you use the word kidnapped. /QUOTE]
i'm guessing you're just trying to get on my wrong side with that statment...
why do i use the word "kidnapped"? because that's exactly what it is. kidnapping 18 year old boys and holding them for ransom in the form of hunderds of criminals.
did you know one of the crimes in the army law here, is hitching a ride? you can get quite some time in jail for that... and you know why? because terrorists have special squads that pretend to be israeli and they kidnap soldiers on their way home. (the military police have a force that searches for soldiers that try to hitch a ride)
now you might say that we take a whole lot of people and put them in prison for no good reason, but i doubt you can prove it. our prisons are full enough as it is, no point in holding people who aren't guilty. if someone is in there, it's for a good reason. and i know becuase i have friends working in those prisons, plus i chased some suspects that ran away from me, but after i cought them i let them go.
so what, plucking soldiers who are just doing their job and "holding them captive", is a just method to release dengerous criminals in your opinion?
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But inappropriate levity aside, the Israelis cannot afford to lose while the Palestinians and their allies are not as vested. They insist they are, because Jerusalem is "among their 5 holiest sites." ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
It is unfortunate though, that the US Iraq attempt that is meant to stabilize the situation in Middle East, is actually destabilising it right now because of either bad financial management or overestimating US military capacity.![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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