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Author Topic: Cousin Hobbes explains the Tour de France
Hobbes
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[NOTE: Everything from right after this note through Stage 14 was written about 9 months ago, and Part 1, which I think went to Stage 11 has already been posted… but that was 9 months ago so here it is again]

I want to start a thread that will go over every stage and in the process try and explain professional cycling. The Tour de France (and all major races) are done in stages. The riders will all leave the stage at the same time (except time trials when they leave at 2 minute intervals) and then just add up the time it takes them to finish each stage. The person with the lowest overall time wins the race, and in The Tour de France, that means they wear the yellow Jersey.

The Tour de France picks a select few teams of riders. A team is group of 9 riders that are sponsored by a company (or group of people). The make-up of the team is variable, some teams have riders that win on certain stages (a sprinter, someone to lead the sprinter to the finish, a climber…) and some are centered around one man. The American based United States Postal Service is based around one Lance Armstrong (from Huston Texas). The team was built with the singular goal of seeing Lance in yellow at the end of the race. They have riders to protect Lance in flat stages (make sure crashes wont affect their leader) and climbers to help up the mountains. The USPS team is considered one of the strongest teams in tour history.

Prologue
This is the Tour’s 100th anniversary. The first race was run in 1903, and all though this isn’t the 100th race (a few were missed because of the wars) it’s still a big deal. Because of this the race starts off in Paris for the 6.5 km prologue. This isn’t a full fledged stage because of how incredibly short it is. Of course it doesn’t mean the riders don’t care since the winner of the stage will be the overall leader, which is something they all want.

Each rider leaves separately for this one, and just races as hard as they can for the short distance. The fast riders will take this stage. The ones that are no threat to finish first we return to Paris in three weeks because they just can’t handle the mountains. Bradley McGee wins the stage (as he had expected) and we move into stage 1 of the Tour de France.

Stage 1
The first few stages of the tour are made for the “sprinters”. On a flat stage almost all the riders stay in a group, called a peleton. Each one staying in the slip stream of those before them, with alternating riders leading the group. Normally a few riders try to break off the group and finish ahead of the peleton for the stage win. The peleton will normally let them go (or some of them anyways) and then use the fact that they have more people (and better rested people) to catch them at the end. When they’re trying to catch the lead riders at the end, they’ll hit speeds over 70 km/hr on the flat.

Stage 1 was just as expected, three riders break off of the main peleton and try to get a gap large enough to keep the main pack at bay. And like usual, the peleton was able to the pull them in at the end, allowing the sprinters the win. A sprinter is someone who will stay in the main peleton all the way, and then at the last 100 meters or so break off and accelerate to the finish faster than any of the other riders. Today, the winner was one Alessandro Petacchi, a top notch sprinter.

However, stage 1 wasn’t exactly as it was supposed to be. On the final kilometer there was a sharp turn, and rather narrow as well. As the peleton swept through it at 70 km/hr a rider towards the edge fell. The problem is that when one rider falls in the middle of the peleton, many more will go down. And so they did, Tyler Hamilton, an American going for a top three finish, or maybe the overall win fell and fractured his collar bone in two places. Luckily, the crash was in the last 1km, so the race rules gave everyone who crashed there the same finishing time as the leaders. Another American broke his pelvis and is out for the race. A very dramatic and very sad stage in all.

Stage 2
There were two big stories today, and neither one was the stage winner. The first one is the Tyler Hamilton is still racing with a double fracture to his collar bone. He says he’s still in the race just to help his team mate. Everyone knows that at the mountain stages he’ll have to drop out, since this injury will keep him from standing up on the bike and getting any power, though he did manage to keep with the main peleton today.

The other story was Frederic Finot and Lilian Jegou, two young riders that broke off 198km from the end of the race, a race that isn’t much over 200km long. Unfortunately, this story has the sad ending is that Finot (who outlasted Jegou) lead the race for almost exactly 197km. He was caught by the peleton at 1km to go and the race was given back into the hands of the sprinters. Today it was won by an Aussie: Baden Cooke.

Stage 3
This stage was a pretty mellow, nothing kind of stage. Another day for the sprinters accelerating in the last 500m or so. Though there was a minor crash that kept Cookey (as he is often called) from taking his second stage victory and the yellow jersey, no major contenders where affected by it. The winner was Alessandro Petacchi, again.

I’ll use this opportunity to explain how the sprint at the end of these kind of stages works. Or more precisely to let Chris Carmichael (Lance Armstrong’s coach) explain.

quote:
The Jump
The sprint is initiated by a jump, 10-20 extremely powerful pedal strokes intended to establish a small gap. With a strong jump, you can get three or four bike lengths ahead of the other sprinters. It's like getting a head-start, and everyone else has to catch up with you. Riders often jump in smaller gears than they use for the rest of the sprint. You can accelerate more quickly in a slightly smaller gear, and if you can follow up your jump with a strong acceleration, it is difficult for others to reach your back wheel or come around you.

The Acceleration
Once you have initiated the sprint, you have to accelerate to maximum speed. Gaining speed quickly is a matter of coordinating your cadence and shifting. It is tempting to throw the chain into your biggest gear right away, but that may actually slow you down. If you immediately shift into a huge gear, the resistance increases immensely and your cadence falls as you try to muscle the gear. Instead, spin the gear up to a high cadence, then shift down one cog and keep accelerating until your cadence is high in that gear. Keep accelerating and shifting until you reach your maximum speed.

Top-End Speed
No one can maintain his maximum sprint speed for very long, so it is very important to gauge the distance to the finish line before you start your sprint. Ideally, you should time the sprint so you are able to accelerate all the way to the finish line. Most sprints, though, reach their maximum speed 75-100 meters from the line. Your jump and acceleration can get you out in front of the peleton, but then you have to have the power to maintain that speed so no one catches up.

Stage 4
This is a fascinating stage, the team time trial. On a typical time trial each rider leaves the start separately and is not allowed to ride the wheel of any other rider that catches them (or is caught by them). It is a completely individual race. The team time trial is similar, if you think of a team as a person. They leave far enough apart from each other (since there are 9 people on the team) that riding each other’s wheels isn’t an issue. Within the team they can do whatever they want, the time of the 5th rider across the finishing line is the time the whole team gets.

When you ride the wheel of another rider you are getting two things. Most importantly you are getting blocked from the air resistance. If you stay inside that rider’s slip stream you get a huge advantage of energy (or energy saved at least) and have to do much less work. You also are getting someone to dictate the pace, which is much more minor, but important none the less. When all the riders are working together (like the teams were today) you have continual change of whose the lead rider, to make sure everyone gets enough rest to stay with the group.

An American based team has never won this event in Tour history, and Lance wanted to change that, and did. USPS finished first in the race today, placing a full 30 seconds above the next team (team Once, lead by Joseba Beloki). Today’s stage also had another first (besides USPS’s win). Because Victor Hugo Pena preformed brilliantly in the prologue stage (beating Lance by 1 second) he is now in yellow, being the first Columbian in the history of the tour to wear the jersey.

Stage 5
This was another flat stage, and one where we saw who the best sprinter is in the tour. was Alessandro Petacchi was behind the sprinters coming into the final 200m, and seeing this, jumped ahead of them and cruised to his third stage win. His acceleration and top speeds simply could not be matched by his fellow sprinters, and he walks away with the win.

Stage 6
Today was the last flat stage before the tour heads to the mountains. Stuart O'Grady and Anthony Geslin both attacked early on in the race and managed, at one point, to put close to twenty minutes between themselves and the peleton. And once again they were caught, but not until only 400m before the end. That must’ve hurt them hard, 400 meters at these speeds is under 30 seconds. [Eek!] Petacchi picked up his 4th tour win, and put himself and his shoulder firmly above the rest of the sprinting field.

Stage 7
The first mountain stage is upon us. Previous stages have been conducted entirely over level ground. Ups and downs are of course present, but today we’ll go over a few mountain passes. This is when many riders drop out and the time gaps go from 2 minutes to 30. Alessandro Petacchi is one of the first to drop out, leaving some feeling bitter, including Baden Cooke who called him “a wimp”.

The mountain stages are when the leaders appear. On the flat stage there is a limit to what kind of gaps can be put between riders, since the true leaders can always keep with the main peleton and stay within just minutes of the finish. In the mountains, there is no assurance of where the riders can finish, and the big break-always are made.

Armstrong, like all of the winners of the tour, gets his wins in the mountains, on stages the end on summits, which is why there are so few stages like that this year. When a stage goes to the mountains but doesn’t end on the summit, Armstrong can’t do the same kind of damage, because in a descent of a mountain other riders take big risks and catch up to him. The tour directors don’t want Lance to win again, or at least not easily, so they took away most of those stages, and we end up with stages like this one. Mountains all over the course but the finish is in a valley.

Today a young French rider named Richard Virenque took the stage. He made an early break-away and managed to keep it up all the way to the finish. Actually, today was a pretty boring stage for the first mountain stage (unless you happen to be Richard Virenque). The gaps between the main contenders are all still the same, but all of the sprinters have fallen far behind.

Lance Armstrong gets the yellow jersey today since he had such a good team time trial and all the leaders on the flat have fallen so far behind.

Stage 8
So far I haven’t mentioned Hamilton much. He was supposed to have dropped out after he broke his collar bone on stage 1 (he hasn’t fully recovered from a broken shoulder he got in the Giro d’Italy, a race that despite the break, he finished second in). He was supposed to drop out on the first mountain stage but some how stayed in. With his collar bone, he is in constant pain, and getting out of the saddle (standing up on the pedals, which gives you more power) is utter agony. Yet he’s still in the race, and today he actually put in an attack! But I’m getting ahead of myself.

Alpe d'Huez is the mountain today. Many stages have finished there, many famous stages. It is one of the mountain stages this year that ends on the top of the mountain. Armstrong is expected to attack today. His team leads out the race, as it is the tradition the team with the yellow jersey sets the pace for the main peleton. Today, perhaps from the excitement of the stage, they lead out too fast and too hard. Everyone’s legs are hurting at the beginning of the climb; the main peleton falls apart of many in the USPS team fall back, unable to help Lance.

This is a bad stage for Armstrong, his teammates fall off one by one as riders continue to attack (try to sprint out ahead of him and keep they’re distance). Armstrong is continually forced to chase down attack after attack with no help from his team. Iban Mayo, a Basque climber, makes a break the Armstrong doesn’t reel in and takes the stage. Armstrong managed to keep the attacks under control (at least from the main competitors) but he wasn’t able to attack anyone himself. He looked weak today, not the Armstrong of old.

Stage 9
This is a day to remember. It is another mountain stage, but one that ends in down hill. Armstrong knows he can not make a break himself as he would be caught at the end, but he has to make sure none of his competitors do either, as they may be willing to risk it all for a big time gap over the Texan. He makes it up the mountains and is coming down. His team has left him and he is riding with a big contender, Joseba Beloki. Beloki is taking the descent very fast, trying to catch a mini break in front of them. As they approach the bottom of the descent it looks like they’ll manage to catch the break so Beloki continue his pace, Armstrong riding perilously close behind him.

Then it happens. While careening down the mountain at 70 to 80 km/hr Beloki falls. His tire had broken and gotten stuck in the tar (that was melted due to high temperatures). It takes him about 3 meters to finish his fall, he lands hard on the pavement and doesn’t move. Armstrong was only a few meters behind him, and miraculously avoid the crash by jerking his bike off of the road and riding (a road bike) over the terrain where he meets up with the road again after it’s taken a switch back. No other biker could have managed a trick like that, but it costs Lance as the time it takes to get down a minor barrier on the road and get going again allows all the riders falling him to catch up. None the less he makes it to the finish with out being caught by any major competitor.

Joseba Beloki is out of the race now. He broke his fingers, his collar bone, and his femur. It’s a sad day for Beloki and his ONCE team, and a sad day for the race as one of the major competitors is ambulanced off of the road.

Stage 10
Stage 10 is a rest day. The riders can not allow their bodies a full day of lounging around, so they all go for a easy (for them) 2 or so hour bike ride. They have to make a move today as Stage 11 does not start any where near where stage 9 ended, but overall it gives them a chance to get their bodies back into shape. Tomorrow, we ride again.

Cousin Hobbes explains the Tour de France Part II

I’ve been putting it off for a while, but here it finally is. For those interested, the first thread (Part I) is here.

Stage 11
In this stage we encounter the last flat the riders will be seeing for a few days. There were some odd results since an off day produces different reactions from different bodies. Jens Voigt was forced to drop out of the race due to intestinal problems, but other than that no big headlines were made.

The winning break away (a break away managed to hold of the peleton today) included Stuart O’Grady and Flecha, who won the stage. I hope the riders enjoyed the relative ease today because the next 5 days get rather steep.

Stage 12
Today is this tour’s first time trail. A time trail is the same as a team trial only the riders go by themselves (obviously), we finally get a chance to see how each rider performs on their own. Hamilton put in a stunning performance today, getting himself 4th in the overall classification (with his broken collar bone). But the real story was one Jan Ulrich.

Jan Ulrich has never finished lower than second in the Tour, and has one the tour (before Armstrong entered). This year he wasn’t billed as highly since he had to form a new team inn under a year and was untested since an injury that had kept him out of last year’s tour. Well he’s back and he’s a threat (as Armstrong had always claimed).

It was a blisteringly hot day today, and only Ulrich had the foresight to warm up in air-conditioning (in a local bike shop, I bet that was a thrill for the owner!) Ulrich came out blasting and absolutely scorched the course. Armstrong seemed to be putting in a marginally weak performance, but fundamentally Ulrich blew him apart by 1:36 in a race that lasted about an hour.

Armstrong became severely dehydrated out on the stage, and though he did manage to pull of second place, he almost never looses the time trials here, and never by this much. There’s not too many stages left for him to make it up, and his ability to win has been put in serious question. Ulrich has clearly established himself as Lance’s major challenger.

Hamilton and Vinikourav both put in good performances, but the story is Ulrich, and Lance makes it clear who he is now racing against.

Stage 13
We come to our third to last mountain stage, one that ends on the AX 3 DOMAINES, early on Tyler Hamilton’s teammate Carlos Sastre pulls away with a few other riders and begins his break away. He was the man Hamilton initially said he was staying in the race to try and help.

As the main peleton goes up the final climb Vinokourov breaks away from the bunch, around the same time Sastre leaves the other riders and goes it alone. Well Sastre makes it to the finish without being caught (though the two other riders he pulled along do end up finishing behind the main bunch), but that’s not the interesting story. As Vinokourov races up the mountain Ulrich begins the chase, and to everyone’s astonishment, leaves Lance Armstrong behind. Armstrong attempts to keep up, and stays about 100 yards behind up until Ulrich reaches Vinokourov. Then those two race together up the mountain, banishing Armstrong behind them.

The camera crew leaves Armstrong as we see the two new threats for the Tour finish the race. The question now is, how far behind will Lance be? It seems pretty clear he’s a long ways out, that’s how we left him just a short time ago and Ulrich and Vinokourov have been racing hard all the way up, but will it be the 30 seconds necessary to give away the yellow jersey to Ulrich?

Ulrich and Vinokourov cross the finishing line, picking up time bonus for coming in second and third, now we watch the clock. Only we don’t have to, here comes Armstrong right on their tale, finishing 7 seconds behind! No one knows how he made up that deficit like he did, it was pure heroism, and it’s secured him yellow for today. But now Ulrich is even closer and more and more people are beginning to predict a non-Armstrong winner.

Stage 14
Second to last mountain stage, and we still have surprises in store. Today we saw a rather non-dynamic stage finish, but some interesting changes occurred.

In a quest to secure the polka-dotted King of the Mountains Jersey Virenque broke early along with a few others, including Giro d’Italy (another major race) winner Simoni. They broke right at the beginning and help off everyone, including an attack Kazakhstan rider, all the way. But Vinokourov did attack, and he did fend off any attempt to reel him from Armstrong and Ulrich. He’s now in second place, in front Ulrich. The time gaps are some of the smallest ever seen this late in the race and everyone is getting antsy, what’s going to happen next?

Stage 15
This stage was perhaps the most exciting stage in Tour history. This was the stage that Armstrong marked off to put a serious time gap between himself and the rest of the tour (most notably the German Jan Ulrich) on the last mountain climb. Ulrich was, of course, aware of this and has his own strategies in plan.

The stage started out with a young French rider taking a big lead over the field and the top contenders staying together at the front of the field. Then, on the second to last climb (still a long ways from the finish) Ulrich launched an attack. He got 300, 400 meters on Armstrong before Armstrong began to close the lead. Armstrong caught up with Ulrich, upon which Ulrich immediately launched another attack. Once again Armstrong caught up with Ulrich but the rest of the field had been smashed apart.

The two Basque climbers caught up with them and they made their way over the top of the mountain and started coming back down. On the descent and flat between the mountains the Armstrong-Ulrich group is caught by a few riders including two of Armstrong’s team mates, one of Ulrich’s, and Tyler Hamilton. They went together up the mountain, everyone waiting to make a break. The Basque riders are in home territory, and well over half of the spectators are Basque; so they are expected to make a break for the stage, as is Armstrong to try and put some time between himself and Ulrich. As the top of the climb approaches Mayo (a Basque climber) makes a break away, but Armstrong is on his tail and immediately catches up to him, and then blows by him.

This seems to be the Armstrong of old coming back to the tour. He leads the way forward as Ulrich tries to catch up and Mayo tries to stay on his wheel. Then, Armstrong’s front wheel takes a dramatic turn half way round. Armstrong falls hard, and Mayo with him. His front handlers had been caught on a small feeding bag held by a little girl. It spun his wheel around and caused him to crash. The leading group is confused and slows down. Ulrich has slowed down the pace for Armstrong, as you aren’t supposed to attack a competitor when they fall. The other Basque climber looks like he want to make a break but Hamilton rides up tells the whole group to slow down and wait for Armstrong.

Mayo is up right away and going, he seems to have sustained no damage to himself or his bike. Armstrong takes a longer time, but does get up. His mechanic has raced at top speed to get to him just in time to give him a push to get started. Armstrong begins to catch up to the main pack helped by a team mate that he was lucky enough to have in the break away with him. Then, his right foot slips off the petal and he is barley able to keep the bike up right. Yet he manages to make it back to the main field and gets going along everyone. But not for long, as right after the group has accelerated back to full speed Mayo breaks away again. And again goes Armstrong, despite the fact that his equipment clearly isn’t working. And he accelerates again past Mayo and up, blowing away everyone including Ulrich. He puts a full minuet between himself and Ulrich before the difference begins to stabilize. The riders manage to stay with Ulrich but do not help at all with the pace making. As the chase moves up the mountain Ulrich sheds more and more riders, but the Basques stay on. Armstrong passes the French rider in the lead and gets to the finish without further equipment problems. Which turns out to be good luck as it is later discovered that his chain-stay was cracked half way through. Ulrich cuts back time on Armstrong, but he is still down 40 seconds minus the 20 second bonus Armstrong gets for crossing the line first. Ulrich would get 12 seconds for coming in second, except Mayo breaks off of Ulrich’s pace about 50 meters from the end. He takes second despite the fact that Ulrich did all of the pace making the whole way up.

Now there is a 1:07 between Armstrong and Ulrich, and no more mountain stages left. It will all come down to the final time trial on Saturday to decide who the best in the world is.

Stage 16
Today was not a mountain stage, though there were a few mountains in it. Maybe a stage for a break-away by some non-GC-contenders, most likely a sprint finish between McEwen and Cooke. That’s not what happened.

Tyler Hamilton was dropped from the main peleton during the first half of the stage. Because it was a mountain stage there was a second peleton behind and he fell in there, clearly his injury was getting the best of him. After a while he regained strength and managed to make it back up to the main peleton, which wasn’t the leader at the time, as there was actually a break-away going on.

All of a sudden Hamilton and CSC teammate break off from the main peleton and start chasing down the break-away in front. Not only do they catch it, but Hamilton then starts off on his own and blows the break-away apart.

I can’t describe how unconventional it is for a GC contender to attack on a non-mountain stage, it just plain doesn’t happen. And here Hamilton is not only attacking, but holding onto the attack broken collar-bone and all! It was incredible, he held out all the way to the end, taking minutes back on his deficit (though still not coming into being a serious thread for Yellow). It was one of the most amazing Tour victories ever.

Stage 17
Today was a flat day, no surprises, an attack leads to a successful break-away, leads to a winner of the stage being Servais from the QuickStep team. All the major contenders did what they normally do on a flat stage, watch each other. Day after tomorrow will be the showdown and they’re conserving their energy.

Stage 18
Once again, a normal, flat stage. This time it was the victory was given to Pablo Lastras, coming out with the fastest road stage in the history of the Tour. However, the main peleton with Armstrong and company was far behind, and still riding looking toward the next day, not to this stage. Tomorrow is the day.

Stage 19
The last day before the trip into Paris, which traditionally is not a stage in which the GC contenders are supposed to gain any time. So today is it. The question is, can Ulrich pull back the minute and change he’s behind on Armstrong? He did more than that last time trial, but then clearly Armstrong was suffering from something unusual. No one’s quite sure what will happen, but mother nature decides to make it more interesting: it rains all day.

Rain is one of the most difficult things that a rider has to deal with, the roads get incredibly slippery, especially the white lines signifying lanes, pedestrian crosswalks and the like. The riders start off in reverse order of their current position, so Ulrich goes second to last and Armstrong starts off last.

Riders are falling all over the course, almost no one has made it through without at least one fall, and many are going over multiple times. This makes it very interesting to see the showdown, Ulrich will be more willing than Lance to take chances now, it’s his only hope, this could be his break.

The two start down the course, Ulrich begins with a lead over Lance at a minor check point, then Lance takes the lead back. They’re going incredibly fast in these rainy conditions, they have a tail-wind to speed them along. Lance is down by less than 10 seconds when it happens, someone falls.

Ulrich took a sharp turn and the wheels just didn’t have the friction to hold him up, he falls and slides for meters until he hits some hay that’s been placed at the side of the road for just such an occasion. He managed to avoid getting injured and gets back on his bike; but his impotence is gone. He takes the curves slower, he isn’t taking chances. Lance has won.

The final standing conclude it, Lance finishes second to Brittan’s David Millar who takes the second fastest time trial ever even though he fell down once. Ulrich looses seconds to Armstrong and admits defeat, after tomorrow, Armstrong will become one of the few to win 5 Tours.

Another interesting note, Hamilton put in a very good time trial and passed Mayo and Zeubeldia, putting him in 4th, the man who broke his collar bone on stage 1 and was destined to drop out has finished in the top four of the world’s hardest bike race.

Stage 20
The winner is decided, there are no more GC attacks now, it’s a ride to Paris filled with talk, and even champagne served to the riders in little plastic cups. The only thing left to decide is the green jersey, it’s come down to a contest between Cooke and McEwen, and the stage winner will get the prize.

The pack races into Paris, where they do 10 laps within the city. There’s a break-away that’s survived into Paris, but within a few laps they’re picked up. Now it’ll be a sprint finish for green.

As they approach the ending McEwen and Cooke are both there and both racing hard. McEwen rides out Cooke’s wheel for a few seconds of the sprint, then takes off on his own and they go side by side down the road for the finish. Except Nazon, a Frenchman, beats them to the line. But the difference between second and third is still large enough to decide the winner, and the call goes to count back, as the finish was too tight to judge without a reply. Cooke takes second, and with it, the green Jersey.

The 2003 Tour de France is over, Armstrong has won 5, Ulrich finishes second again. Hamilton’s first appearance as his own team leader shows that even in excruciating pain he proves a worthy threat for the title. Cooke appears out of no where to take the green jersey, and good old reliable Virenque takes the King of the Mountains. 2004 tour is the next thing on Armstrong’s list, and we’ll all be routing for number 6.

Hobbes [Smile]

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advice for robots
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That was awesome, Hobbes. For the first time, I want to watch the Tour de France.
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Professor Funk
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Very cool. [Smile] When do we get to go see it in person? [Kiss]
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Hobbes
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afr, [Blushing] [Big Grin] [Group Hug]

Annie darlingest, it's a bit expensive to get to France, but when we have the money and the time... [Kiss]

In the meantime OLN will be broadcasting the Tour all July, showing the tage live in the morning, and then multiple replays of it (typically about 2.5 hours shedualed per play, the replay is an exact copy of the live braodcast, not highlights or antyhing silly).

July 2nd = prologue! Yay!

Hobbes [Smile]

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BannaOj
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Yeah if I ever do go to France it will have to include part of July. PRobably towards the end and August so we can catch Rugby season too.

AJ

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dem
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Big cycling news from the 56th Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré.

Lance Armstrong finished a disappointing 5th in today's uphill time trial (Ventoux). For several reasons, this should be seen as a bad omen for LA's attempt for a record a 6th Tour de France win. Primarily, the uphill TT is seen as a preview of Le Tours uphill time trial (an oddity). This was suppose to be a place where Lance could put time into his competitors. Instead, he lost 2 minutes to one of his big rivals...Mayo. Lance has also never won a race up Ventoux, one of cycling’s great climbs. Most people expected him to 'leave nothing in the bag'.

I would still have Armstrong as my favorite heading into Le Tour, but would give him less than a 50% chance of winning.
Here is my prerace handicapping sheet...
Armstrong 35%
Mayo 25%
Hamilton 20%
Ullrich 10% (Never finished worse than 2nd, but I think he is done)
Vinokourov 10%
Damiano Cunego has had a great couple of months, but is probably too young to take the big one. However, if you want to impress your friends, throw out his name as a dark horse (his teammate Gilberto Simoni of Saeco is a more reasonable pick...probably deserves a 10% chance).

[ June 10, 2004, 02:49 PM: Message edited by: dem ]

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BannaOj
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To play devils advocate, for the heck of it. While yes, Lance is a fierce competitor, he is also extremely wily. His focus is the Tour not the Critierium. He's totally capable of NOT going all out now, to trick people into thinking he doesn't have anything left in the tank, and then pulling a fast one.

AJ

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Hobbes
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Which he did a few years ago up Luz Ardeden actually, faking being ill and then riding away with the race (I think that was the stage anyways). Plus there's the fact that Armstrong has never done well on this climb, where as he's done well on Alp D'Heuz.

I do think this is a negative revelation for Armstrong, but I still think his chances of winning are over 50%. AJ, want to link in your thread where we were disussing tour poissibilities?

Hobbes [Smile]

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Hobbes
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Ohh, a good place to see the results of today's stage is this, it has snippets every few minutes through-out the stage. Very interesting to follow that way. [Smile]

Hobbes [Smile]

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BannaOj
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The pre-race remarkgs by Bruniel make you wonder too.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/jun04/dauphinelibere04/?id=results/stage4

AJ

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BannaOj
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heh, guess we go to the same place for our info Hobbes! [Wink]

Lance owns L'Alpe D'Huez He's ridden it how many times in the last couple months? And even when they have gone up Mont Ventoux even though he's not one the stage, he's kept himself in the running enough to win. I think seeing how many Americans are doing well in cycling is exciting. Sad thing is that they are more likely household names over in Europe than here.

AJ

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dem
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The Lance rope-a-dope is a possibility. He truly only trains for Le Tour de France and is completely willing to use any race as just a training tool (one of his detractors' main criticisms).

My thoughts are that he already looked tarnished. Last year showed he could have multiple bad days. I think a great performance would have put fear into his competitors. That said, Mayo was putting up a great performance and maybe Lance knew he couldn't beat Mayo (maybe just match him). Lance could have decided to close it down and let Mayo think he was that much better.

Or maybe Sheryl Crow took that two minutes out of him. We will know in about 45 days.

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BannaOj
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was he on that new bike they were talking about in the earlier stages today too?

AJ

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BannaOj
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Oh and Dem since we've got you as another cycling sucker to add to the list of hobbes and I, here is the previous thread where we were debating.

http://www.hatrack.com/ubb/forum/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=024819

I threw Heras out as a conversation starter cause it was interesting.

AJ

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dem
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Heras is a possibility. I think most people have discounted him because of his team. He also can't take big pulls in the team time trial that are necessary for a good showing.

I just realized I am taking my volleyball team to team camp on the day of the big TT. I will be driving to Florida with 15 high school girls when Le Tour heads up L'Alpe D'Huez. What was I thinking? [Wall Bash] <--my first ever graemlin in 10 years on this site.

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BannaOj
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well you can always catch the re-cap on OLN, or do they have TVs where you are going?
AJ

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