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Author Topic: Shock Swing Vote Analysis (Stern Warning!)
sndrake
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I am still trying to wrap my head around the demographics discussed in this article. [Confused]

A Shock Jock Voting Block?

quote:
A Shock Jock Voting Bloc?
By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: June 27, 2004

WING voters may be in relatively short supply this year, but they definitely exist, and a surprising number of them may be listening to Howard Stern on their way to church.

A new analysis found that 21 percent of voters were either undecided or so tentatively committed to one presidential candidate that they would be willing to reconsider. That is low compared with the share of voters up for grabs at this point in past elections - 33 percent in 2000, 27 percent in 1996 and 31 percent in 1992 - but enough to give one candidate a decisive victory.

"People have been saying that this election will be a repeat of what we saw four years ago, but there is still a sizable number of voters with a favorable view of both candidates," said Andrew Kohut, the director of the nonpartisan Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, which conducted the analysis. "The election might be close, but a candidate who did a really good job of reaching these persuadable voters could win by a gap of five percentage points or more."

Unfortunately for Republicans, a lot of these voters tune their radios to Mr. Stern, who has been crusading to oust President Bush. Mr. Stern is angry at the Federal Communications Commission, which cracked down on stations that broadcast a show of his that discussed anal sex and what the commission called "repeated flatulence sound effects."

Mr. Stern, who has backed Republican candidates in the past, has a mother lode of swing voters in his audience, according to a poll by the New Democrat Network, an advocacy group. Its pollster, Mark Penn, calculates that this "Stern Gang" of swing voters makes up 4 percent of the likely voters this year, nearly as large as the entire Hispanic vote in 2000.

But one bit of solace for Republicans is that Mr. Stern's listeners go to church frequently, which tends to correlate with voting Republican. The poll showed that Mr. Stern's listeners were slightly more likely than nonlisteners to call themselves born-again Christians and were three times more likely to attend church daily. The pollsters did not ask why they went to church after listening to Mr. Stern, so there is no way to calculate how many were performing an act of contrition.

Got that? "Stern's listeners are slightly more likely than nonlisteners to call themselves born-again Christians"?????

They are "three times more likely to attend church daily"???

[Confused] [Confused] [Confused]

I'm a lefty agnostic who never tunes into Stern because the few times I did I was pretty repulsed.
But then again, I don't attend church daily, so maybe it makes sense after all. [Roll Eyes]

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Erik Slaine
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Yeah, now I can finally understand why I can't stand Howard Stern.
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Dagonee
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I'm guessing he heard about the survey and told his listeners to say that to mess with the results.

Dagonee

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FoolishTook
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Christian here, but count me off that list.

I've never understood Howard Stern's appeal to Christians. It's especially shocking when I'm talking to a very nice, lovely Christian woman who has reservations about Harry Potter because of the witchcraft issue, but then admits she's been trying her darndest to find Howard Stern on the local radio stations.

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sndrake
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Maybe, Dag.

But then again, I remember tuning in a couple times to Rush Limbaugh on TV. At that time, part of his schtick was to have scantily clad women deliver him stuff on the show and he'd openly leer at them.

Not in the same league as Stern by a longshot, at least as far as objectification of women goes, but still...

And, as the article notes, Stern has supported Republicans in the past. I think NY's governor George Pataki was on a friendly basis with him.

I think I'll hold out to see if there was any indication Stern tried to stack the deck - I'd want some evidence first. Not that he wouldn't do it - I just think a pollster would have been trying to avoid that.

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aspectre
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Ain't surprised m'self. Always figured that a majority of Stern listeners were like the majority of Springer watchers: Pharisees who go to the temple to pray/brag about how much better, more moral they are than those around them.

And seein' there ain't nothin' better about their own life, they gotta turn to Stern and Springer to find somethin' worse.

[ June 28, 2004, 04:35 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]

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FoolishTook
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quote:
I'm guessing he heard about the survey and told his listeners to say that to mess with the results.
I hope this is true. I hope my lovely and wonderful Howard Stern-lovin' Christian friend is just the wonky exception.
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Dagonee
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Stern's definitely trying to get his listeners to vote Democrat. I think the Christian thing is the joke, not the party thing.

Stern is vehemently anti-religious.

Dagonee

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