posted
The asteroid in question is 400 meters long, large enough to cause a lot of damage. NASA article, Wikipedia article. If it hits, the impact will release energy equivalent to 2000 megatons of TNT. For comparison, the Tunguska event produced an equivalent of just 15 megatons of TNT.
The good news is that this asteroid stays near the earth's orbit all the time, and therefore if an impact is ultimately predicted (still considered unlikely) we may have many opportunities to deflect it in the next 24-25 years.
This asteroid is interesting because it's the most highly rated ever on the Torino scale, a 4. This means that collision is still unlikely, but that the object can potentially cause regional damage and merits close attention from astronomers to assess risk.
posted
Not knowing a whole lot about this subject, and not being able to both quickly absorb the necessary knowledge while doing my job... is there any reason we could not nuke it, and/or explode a nuke that would knock it into a different path?
Posts: 281 | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
I say we launch Ben Affleck and Bruce Willis immediately. Toward it, if anyone thinks that would be of additional help.
Posts: 666 | Registered: Dec 2003
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posted
If anyone does anything about this, it'll probably be the British. Their government is the only one that has been taking the thread of asteroid collision with any seriousness.
If this thing is on target to hit us, I wonder at what point it will be too late to divert it.
Best case scenario--it looks like it's going to be a head on collision, and we get off our collective asses as a species and develop defensive measures to protect ourselves from it. Then it misses us by a hair's breadth.
Well, no best case scenario would be that we discover that it's an opportunity for peaceful first contact, and the asteroid is actually an artifact of some sort made by another race. That's on the unlikely side of things though, I'm thinking. Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
In 24 years, we should have fixed our space impededness, especially if we determine it is more likely to happen...
Posts: 1132 | Registered: Jul 2002
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quote:Then they better hurry up on the Ender's Game movie.
I kinda hope that the 7th Harry Potter book is out by then.
Not to mention the ever-diminishing hopes that George RR Martin will finish "A Feast for Crows," let alone the series by then.
Posts: 4344 | Registered: Mar 2003
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quote: If anyone does anything about this, it'll probably be the British. Their government is the only one that has been taking the thread of asteroid collision with any seriousness.
I would be really sad and ironic if after all the movies showing America saving the earth, it turns out to be the British Flag flying in the background as a defense strategy is launched into space.
*Thinks of Deep Impact, Independence Day, and Armageddon*
posted
Remember, Murphy's laws of probability apply. In tabletop gaming, rolling a 1 or 2 on a d6 is actually 50% for a negative effect and 13.5% for a positive effect.
I imagine that the probablity is more like 25% that it's going to hit.
*rolls a d4*
Damn. Best start digging the bunker now. Posts: 903 | Registered: May 2003
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posted
I look to Iran to supply the rocket and warhead, ouch! It looks like we should be pretty sure within a year, do they have anything like a probable impact sight? If it is in water it will be very bad, if it hits Yellow Stone wow Irony on Irony!
This is a classic example, by the time we get off our butts to build the space infrastructure no amount of money will get it done in time. Though with an asteroid this size I expect an ion drive H bomb or a stack of them would get it done. Of course we might cause a hell of a dangerous meteor shower.
posted
Hmmmm... we should attempt to capture it with explosives and rockets. What a perfect candidate for an orbital mining station, or as a replacement for the ISS.
Or we could blow it up. We should do it with the biggest laser we can find, Death Star style.
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quote: t to mention the ever-diminishing hopes that George RR Martin will finish "A Feast for Crows," let alone the series by then.
Storm of Swords is (C)2000. I just started Game of Thrones, and I'd be a very unhappy spirit in the afterlife if I didn't get to see the series to its conclusion before Armageddon.
posted
I want to deflect it to impact the moon. If it's the nickle iron type asteroid then it will make great raw materials for mining. The lunar crust is mostly silica, so we need something better to build structures out of than sand or glass. Importing steel from earth would be prohibitively expensive. That's why I think it's a great idea, while nobody is there and there's no atmosphere to disrupt, to just aim it for the moon. Plus the fireworks would be awesome. Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
What we REALLY need to do is to put our chances at survival at the odds of one to a million. We all know that one in a million chances usually have a way of always happening.
Posts: 530 | Registered: Jan 2003
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Twinky, it wouldn't have any effect on the tides. The moon would not change orbit or anything. It would take something far far bigger to have any noticable effect on the celestial mechanics of the earh-moon system. The global devastation on earth if it hit earth would all have to do with the ocean, atmosphere, etc. All an asteroid would do if it hit the moon is make a nice hot new impact crater. (Since there's no atmosphere and nothing lives there.)
We would likely get a few more meteors than usual, is all. Plus a wonderful fireworks display, lots of fun for amateur astronomers, but probably not something most people would even notice.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
Of course Tatiana, as we've talked about before, the moon is bound to be littered with good construction materials from previous impacts. All we have to do is get there and dig them up. Not that I think that diverting the thing into the moon is necessarily a bad idea.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
Whats wrong with glass as a building material? At 1/6th G it should work very well. As Neoman said we will find many nice impactors up there, plenty of Iron for phase three of my plan to conquerer space...
Hitting the moon with the asteroid might not be as easy or desirable as say, blasting it to grit. These asteroids can be strange in composition, conglomerate semi solids, stony and even solid all have their problems. Also the moon is a very small target, empty space is easier to hit.
It would be cool if it happened to nick the moon on the way by though, wang!
posted
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 38,000years.
Adjusting parameters in the AsteroidImpactCalculator such that energy before atmospheric entry equals 2000Megatons
Atmospheric Entry: The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 54kilomtres or 33.5miles. The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 16 km/s or 9.96 miles/s. Impact energy is 1780MegaTons or 7.47x10^18Joules The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.655km by 0.655km
Major Global Changes: The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass. The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis. The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed. Transient Crater Diameter: 4.91km = 3.05miles Transient Crater Depth: 1.74km = 1.08miles Final Crater Diameter: 6.07km = 3.77miles Final Crater Depth: 0.509km = 0.316miles The crater formed is a complex crater. The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.0665 cubic kilometres = 0.0159 cubic miles Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 3.51meters = 11.5feet
Effects at 100kilometres or 62miles distance
Time for maximum radiation: 0.244seconds after impact Visible fireball radius: 3.12km = 1.94miles The fireball appears 7.1 times larger than the sun Thermal Exposure: 2.66x104Joules/m2 Duration of Irradiation: 5.08seconds Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 5.24
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 20seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 100km: VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight. VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.
The ejecta will arrive approximately 144seconds after the impact. At 100kilometres/62miles the ejecta arrives in scattered fragments Average Ejecta Thickness: 5.19mm = 0.204inches Mean Fragment Diameter: 3.78cm = 1.49inches
The air blast will arrive at approximately 303seconds. Peak Overpressure: 11700Pa = 0.117bars = 1.66psi Max wind velocity: 26.3m/s = 58.7mph Sound Intensity: 81dB (Loud as heavy traffic) Glass windows will shatter
Effects at 50kilometres or 31miles Time for maximum radiation: 0.244seconds after impact Visible fireball radius: 3.71km = 2.31miles The fireball appears 16.9 times larger than the sun Thermal Exposure: 1.34x10^5Joules/m2 Duration of Irradiation: 5.08seconds Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 26.3
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 10seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 50km: VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
The ejecta will arrive approximately 101seconds after the impact. Average Ejecta Thickness: 4.15cm = 1.64inches Mean Fragment Diameter: 23.7cm = 9.33inches
The air blast will arrive at approximately 152seconds. Peak Overpressure: 38200Pa = 0.382bars = 5.43psi Max wind velocity: 78.2m/s = 175mph Sound Intensity: 92dB (May cause ear pain) Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse. Glass windows will shatter. Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
At 25kilometres or 15.5miles
Thermal Radiation: Time for maximum radiation: 0.244seconds after impact Visible fireball radius: 3.86km = 2.4miles The fireball appears 35.1 times larger than the sun Thermal Exposure: 5.61x10^5 Joules/m2 Duration of Irradiation: 5.08 seconds Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 111 humans directly exposed suffer first degree burns
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 5seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 25km: VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
The ejecta will arrive approximately 71.6seconds after the impact. Average Ejecta Thickness: 33.2cm = 13.1inches Mean Fragment Diameter: 1.49m = 4.88ft
The air blast will arrive at approximately 75.8seconds. Peak Overpressure: 150000Pa = 1.5bars = 21.3psi Max wind velocity: 234m/s = 522mph Sound Intensity: 104dB (May cause ear pain)
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse. Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse. Highway truss bridges will collapse. Glass windows will shatter. Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
At 16.1kilometres/10miles
Time for maximum radiation: 0.244seconds after impact Visible fireball radius: 3.89km or 2.41miles The fireball appears 54.9 times larger than the sun Thermal Exposure: 1.37x 10^6Joules/m2 Duration of Irradiation: 5.08 seconds Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 269 Humans directly exposed suffer second degree burns Newspaper ignites Deciduous trees ignite Grass ignites
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 3.22 seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 16.1km: VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
The ejecta will arrive approximately 57.4seconds after the impact. Average Ejecta Thickness: 1.24m or 4.08ft Mean Fragment Diameter: 4.78m or 15.7ft
The air blast will arrive at approximately 48.8seconds. Peak Overpressure: 380000Pa = 3.8bars = 54psi Max wind velocity: 434m/s = 972mph Sound Intensity: 112dB (Will cause ear pain)
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse. Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse. Multistory steel-framed office-type buildings will suffer extreme frame distortion, incipient collapse. Highway truss bridges will collapse. Highway girder bridges will collapse. Glass windows will shatter. Cars and trucks will be overturned and displaced, requiring major repairs. Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
posted
But what if we get it to crash into the moon and the moon destabilizes, crashing into the earth? Is there any chance of that? Or am I really confused about the relative sizes of these things?
Posts: 666 | Registered: Dec 2003
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posted
Yeah, much bigger things have slammed into the moon in its history, I'd be willing to bet. This think is only 400 meters across. Nothing to sneeze at, but it isn't a dinosaur killer or anything.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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At first I was a little confused, since other articles had said that it would be Feb. at the earliest before we got more data that would do much to help us pinpoint the thing's trajectory, but apparently they went back through old data, and now that they knew what to look for they were able to glean information about the asteroid from that.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
Whew! Glad this one is not going to hit. We don't need to get complacent, though. My worst fear is that we will discover a big one incoming with a few years or less lead time. There is no way we could be ready to deflect it by then. That's why we have to go ahead and start working on the problem now. We don't know how much warning we will have. One very near miss (as someone mentioned earlier) was only discovered when it was outbound.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
Yeah, I'm glad they determined this asteroid isn't going to hit. Perhaps one day we'll take these threats seriously and develop some countermeasures.
Posts: 3546 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
You know, in a way it would have been better for the species if this one had been on a collision course. It's big enough to have gotten our attention, but not so large that it would have driven us extinct had we been unable to deflect it in time. I'm not sure than anything short of billions of tons of space debris hurtling directly toward us will goad us into the necessary action, frankly.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
Yes, but I would be concerned about a panic reaction if it were announced that the asteroid was going to hit. What would be good is a period of uncertainty for a greater length of time, finally resolving as a miss. That way we get the kick in the pants we need without the certainty there will be a strike.
Posts: 3546 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
But the thing is, if it were looking more and more likely that the thing would stike for a long enough period of time for us to mobilize against the threat, I think that there would likely be panic anyway.
That said, you do have a point. I would like for a certain strike to not be necessary to spur us to action.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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