quote:The U.S. military has lost control over the volatile al-Anbar province, Iraqi police and residents say.
The area to the west of Baghdad includes Fallujah, Ramadi and other towns that have seen the worst of military occupation, and the strongest resistance.
Despite massive military operations which destroyed most of Fallujah and much of cities like Haditha and al-Qa'im in Ramadi, real control of the city now seems to be in the hands of local resistance.
In losing control of this province, the U.S. would have lost control over much of Iraq. ...
The resistance seems in control of the province now. "No government official can do anything without contacting the resistance first," government official in Ramadi Abu Ghalib told IPS.
"Even the governor used to take their approval for everything. When he stopped doing so, they issued a death sentence against him, and now he cannot move without American protection."
quote:Over a longer period, the increase in violence is more dramatic. Weekly attacks have nearly doubled, from 423 in spring 2004 to 792. More than 110 people a day died violently in Iraq in the last three months, the report said, up from fewer than 30 a day in 2004. ...
The data and language of the report also contrasted with recent statements by administration officials who have been seeking to shore up sagging public support for the war.
Administration officials, for example, repeatedly have emphasized that recent violence has been concentrated in Baghdad. The new report notes that violence has increased in Diyala, Mosul and Kirkuk as the sectarian conflict has spread to those cities.
The report also noted that sectarian attacks had set up a cycle of deepening violence in which civilians were driven to "endorse extremist actions on their behalf," lending their support to the insurgent and militia groups in order to provide security for their neighborhoods. That dynamic is undermining the government's reconciliation efforts and ability to provide security.
quote:After a monthlong vacation, the large number of no-shows at a short parliamentary session prompted dismay among colleagues and created confusion about voting rules.
"No more orphans, no more widows," Mahmoud Mashadani, speaker of parliament and a Sunni Arab, declared in his opening statement, in front of rows of empty chairs.
During the brief session, legislators passed a one-month extension of a state of emergency amid the nation's unrelenting violence.
quote:Iraqi Kurds living in the semi-autonomous northern part of the country lowered Iraqi flags this past weekend, replacing them with Kurdish banners over official government buildings in Iraqi Kurdistan. Their actions sent immediate shock waves to Baghdad, where Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki derided the move by the Kurds, calling it 'illegal.'
And when Baghdad complained, the Kurds threatened to secede.
This move by the Kurds has also sent up red flags in neighboring Turkey, where Ankara eyes any move towards Kurdish independence with much trepidation, less it encourages its own Kurdish population to emulate their Iraqi brothers.
Addressing the region`s parliament, Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan region, said Iraq`s flag was a symbol of his own people`s past oppression. He asked the regional parliament to adopt the new flag.
Barzani told his parliament: 'If at any moment we, the Kurdish people and parliament, consider that it is in our interests to declare independence, we will do so and we will fear no-one.'
GUESSING TIME:
1. Guess the date of full or 'near full' (confinement to limited areas such as embassies) pullout of American troops.
2. Guess if that pullout will be 'mission success,' or a simple evacuation due to collapse of American occupation.
3. If you think that the Kurds are going to secede, guess the date of Kurdistan's secession and the resultant fracture of the Iraqi borders.
4. If you think that the present government is going to collapse, guess the date of their last official session.
5. If you think that civil war is approaching, guess the date that it will officially be recognized as occurring.
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You forgot one, call it 3b. Will the Kurds attempt to take Kirkuk and it's oil with them? and 3c. Will the Shiites or/and Sunnis counterattack them ensuing in a battle for the city, or will they just annex it outright?
edit to add: And even more, 3d. Will Turkey invade a newly independent Kurdistan? 3e. Will Turkish Kurds rebel outright? Will Iranian Kurds?
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quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: You forgot one, call it 3b. Will the Kurds attempt to take Kirkuk and it's oil with them? and 3c. Will the ShiitesSunnis counterattack them ensuing in a battle for the city, or will they just annex it outright?
As if the Sunni's and the Shiites will team up. The Shiites have other oil fields and are far more numerous than the Sunnis.
If anything the Sunni's will go it alone in trying to intimidate the Kurds if they try to take Kirkuk with them. Terrorizing them in much the same way they terrorize the Shiites right now.
edit: Samp, I admit to failing this thread. I have no idea WHICH events will happen, much less WHEN.
quote:You forgot one, call it 3b. Will the Kurds attempt to take Kirkuk and it's oil with them? and 3c. Will the Shiites or/and Sunnis counterattack them ensuing in a battle for the city, or will they just annex it outright?
I have no idea how that's going to go. Kurdistan still wants to just 'claim' Kirkuk and spirit away with it, sans-fighting.
If Iraq keeps heading down the handbasket chute it's presently on, then central iraq will probably be too much of a flaming tire pile to really earnestly object in force to indie Kurdistan making claim on the city.
This may be Barz's plan.
As for Turkey's reaction? I've no idea. The leadership there is viewing the process of fracture with 'extreme trepidation,' and plenty of voiced indignance, but is beginning to silently understand how little they can actually meddle in the issue. Hands tied.
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I'd be surprised if the Sunnis let it go without a fight. They aren't stupid. They know that when (not if) they would lose and kind of a civil war to the Shiites, they'd be left with an almost useless swath of land, with all the oil in the hands of their northern and southern neighbors. Holding Kirkuk against the Kurds would be their only chance at anything approaching an economy.
I agree that Turkey's hands are tied. If they tried to lay any kind of violent pressure on their own citizens, or even worse, outright attempted to invade or annex Iraqi Kurdistan, the EU would make their EU Membership bid evaporate, at least I have to believe they would. I don't see how they can admit a nation with that bad a record on their human rights AND has a very recent incident of cruel repression and taking away an entire ethnic group's right to self determination.
This to say nothing of US pressure on them.
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quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: I don't see how they can admit a nation with that bad a record on their human rights AND has a very recent incident of cruel repression and taking away an entire ethnic group's right to self determination.
Yet somehow China is in the UN, and on the security council no less.
Turkey has been so oppressive of its Kurdish population that I honestly think the only way they could keep them from mass exodus into a "Kurdistan" would be to use their military. They might say, "The UN be damned."
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Since it is all but assured that the United States will be allowed to remain comfortably in Kurdistan.
The Kurds actually miraculously like us. They're the single shining beacon of 'what went right.'
May not have been our intention (hell, the state department is still furiously trying to keep the lid on the public image disaster of an Iraqi fracture) but by god we're unintentionally getting something right!
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quote:Public declarations from Turkey amount to: "No Kurdistan at ANY price."
I recognize and respect the gravity of the Turkish position. But -- I call bluster. Turkey won't be crossing swords with the uh ess of ay.
They would if it really was 'no Kurdistan at ANY price,' but there's plenty of demonstration by the Turkish PM, Recep, that he is simply making promises that cannot be fulfilled.
But he's doing so for an important reason: he has to placate the Turkish military. There's .. stresses. Internal stresses. It's a bit of a mess in Turkey right now, over the EU and the threat of Kurdish rabble-rousing.
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Blackblade - It's not the UN they'd be afraid of. A lot of Turks, their PM included, think EU membership is their ticket to the future, especially economically. They want in, they want in BADLY. But the EU can set whatever requirements they want for admission, and they can be a heck of a lot more choosey and picky than the UN has the ability to be. Turkey can thumb their noses at the UN if they want, and they'll get away with it, but "getting away with it" won't matter much if the EU slams the door to the Hellesponte shut on them. It's shooting themselves in the foot, for what might be little or no gain in the end.
Samp - I'm a little surprised they still like us quite frankly. We've promised to help them for what, the last four decades? And almost every time we've ended up leaving them holding the bag. Maybe years of US Air Power over northern Iraq repaired all that damage. Even so, I wouldn't necessarily say that we got the war in the north right, what was there really to get right there anyway? After the no-fly zone was set up, Kurdish independence flourished. By the time we invaded, the stage up there was already set, and the Kurds were already in charge. All we had to do was leave them alone and throw them a thumbs up as we drove by. Still, I'm glad that the Kurds DO like us. If not for Turkey, urging them to declare independence at all costs would be a wise policy in many ways for us, not the least of which would be the damage done to Iran.
Orlox - I really don't see that happening. There's enough firepower at Incirlik to level any military response Turkey might try to inflict on Iraqi Kurdistan, and I highly doubt they'll get the drop on us. I just don't see it going that far. The EU and the US will talk them down. They've more to gain by just giving up that fourth or whatever it is, of their country than by trying to fight the US for northern Iraq and sacrificing future relations with the EU.
edit to add: Samp's right, I call bluster too. It's a PR show.
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