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Author Topic: Fed trades $85 billion for 80% stake in AIG (BAC buys ML thread)
James Tiberius Kirk
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Changed the title.

It's the economy, stupid: [CNBC]
quote:
Growing expectations that Lehman will become Wall Street's most high profile bankruptcy since junk bond specialist Drexel Burnham Lambert collapsed in 1990 sparked a sell-off in U.S. asset prices.
Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day.

--j_k

[ September 16, 2008, 08:09 PM: Message edited by: James Tiberius Kirk ]

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Mucus
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Cheery.

May fortune favour the bold.

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TomDavidson
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I would prefer fortune to favor the responsible.
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Mucus
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The two are not mutually exclusive.
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Elmer's Glue
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Fortune favors your mom!
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Lyrhawn
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Yipes. I guess Greenspan was right when he said it was only going to get worse.

What next? And what's the expected long term impact of so many major banks and investment houses either going bankrupt or being taken over by other companies?

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BlackBlade
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Wow, although the stock market is always fluctuating, that news is going to do something.
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Jhai
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I'm glad the government decided to not bail out Lehman, and kudos to BoA for buying in a shaky market. If they're lucky (and did the financial scenarios right), they'll do very well with Merrill Lynch.

Right now, the only ones I'm worried about are my friends from undergrad who are low on the investment banking totem pole. Now is not a good time to be graduating with an eye towards a job on Wall Street.

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Samprimary
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Well, all this talk about market problems. The important question is, how do we blame it on our political opponents?
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Mucus
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Actually, there is this interesting essay about why there will not be too much blame, at least aimed at one favourite scapegoat:

quote:

... there have been surprisingly few people, even on the left, as far as I can see, and even in Asia, who have pointed out another seeming contradiction.

When other countries find themselves in a debt crisis, as happened across Asia a decade ago, America and world institutions like the International Monetary Fund argued strongly for free market, monetarist solutions: take the pain, cut subsidies, stop bail-outs.

When America (and the West more generally) finds itself unable to pay its debts, on the other hand, the pain must be alleviated by government action - even up to the point of nationalisation of giants like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and the giantly ambitious Northern Rock.

Why is the anti-globalisation left not up in arms about this double standard?
...
And there is little doubt that Chinese government intervention played a part in this: it kept the yuan low against the dollar, rather than allowing it to float - thus keeping those imports cheap. It dealt with the huge consequent trade surpluses by buying US currency, using its dollars to invest in bonds. Buying bonds is another way of saying lending money, which is to say that the Chinese irresponsibly injected huge quantities of unnaturally cheap credit into the whole bloated system.

So in this case why is the anti-China, pro-free market right not up in arms about that? (I add in "pro-free market" because there is also the anti-China left, but they are not so pro-free market).
Well, here are some answers.

The anti-China, pro-free market right is largely an American phenomenon, and naturally enough will in this year's presidential election vote largely Republican. And the curious fact is that it is a Republican administration that has overseen the extraordinary interlinking of American free market capitalism with Chinese communism - or state capitalism, as some prefer to call it.

Among the biggest buyers of bonds in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is the Chinese government, via the People's Bank of China. In other words, the American financial establishment arranged for millions of ordinary Americans unknowingly to take out their mortgages with the Chicoms, as the neoconservative bloggers love to call the folks in Beijing.

And that is just the symbolic icing of the cake of the close relationship between the two economies.

Does the anti-China right want too much stress to be laid on the fact that Mr Paulson, a standard-bearer now for both the administration and Wall Street, was helping his friends in the Chinese government just as much as he was American home-owners when he nationalised FM and FM? No, I thought not.

What about the anti-globalisation left? Unfortunately, the unwinding of first the Asian credit crisis and then the Western credit crunch has revealed much that does not quite fit their picture of social justice as applied to developing and developed industrial states.

...

I do not want to suggest myself, by the way, that along with lip-synching schoolgirls, Tibet crackdowns etc we have to start rounding on the Chinese as being "to blame" for the credit crunch. In these great interlocking patterns of globalisation, policy-makers all over the world get into ruts where collisions are impossible to avoid and in the absence of marked roads it is hard to say one driver is more responsible than the other.
...

link

Edit: To shorten essay, not an easy thing to do given how its structured

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The Rabbit
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That article makes too critically false assumptions. First, that the politicians involved actually care about the facts and second that most Americans understand enough about international finance to understand. I predict he is wrong on both counts and that both political sides will indeed be pointing fingers at the opposition.
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Mucus
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I don't think you quite get his point. He's not saying that Americans won't point fingers, by all means they will point fingers around, but at each other for once.

He's just predicting (and attempting to explain) why there won't be (and hasn't been) much finger pointing at China, even though China (and foreign targets in general) is normally a quite popular scapegoat.

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ClaudiaTherese
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Greenspan anticipates more banks also falling.

If Social Security had been privatized, would this sort of market downturn have been likely to have had substantial specific and individually-felt effects on Social Security payments?

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BlackBlade
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It seems all too apparent why my father breathed a huge sigh of relief when he watched markets tank for the past year having sold all his Merryl Lynch shares in the spring of 07.

Still Shinsei Bank took huge chunks out of all their executive's employment packages this fall. It stands to reason many banks are taking similar steps.

edit: Just talked to my father and Shinsei Bank has several hundred million dollars tied up in Lehman Brothers. Lehman going bankrupt could potentially mean my dad will lose his job. He is going in to work today to see what the damage is. [Frown]

[ September 15, 2008, 06:14 PM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]

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Lyrhawn
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My mom said she had to stop doing quotes (which is a sort of offer estimate for annuities) with AIG today, after spending half the day redoing them, because they are in some sort of trouble.
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rivka
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Anybody know what the story is with WAMU? Someone warned me about them, and they're my primary bank . . .
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TomDavidson
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Bank holdings will be safe, unless you're over the FDIC limit -- unless the economy actually collapses. In that case, I'd imagine that anyone who's not in cash will have problems.
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Kwea
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WAMU is a huge back, and have a HUGE debt in mortgages, so they are far more at risk than most banks are, and you should be vary careful with them, investment-wise.
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Mucus
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TSX, Hang Seng, DOW, NASDAQ, why must you all hold back? Please tell us how you really feel.
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rivka
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Would that I had over the FDIC limit with anyone!

I guess I shouldn't call them my primary bank -- my IRAs and savings and such are all elsewhere. Just my checking accounts are with WAMU. Which is what I deal with day-to-day.

Am I at risk of having said accounts frozen if the FDIC is forced to take over? If so, probably for how long?

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James Tiberius Kirk
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
My mom said she had to stop doing quotes (which is a sort of offer estimate for annuities) with AIG today, after spending half the day redoing them, because they are in some sort of trouble.

AIG Credit Rating Downgraded

--j_k

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AvidReader
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Man, I hope this doesn't mess with my car insurance rates...
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Lyrhawn
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quote:
Originally posted by rivka:
Am I at risk of having said accounts frozen if the FDIC is forced to take over? If so, probably for how long?

I'm not sure how it would work with a bank as large as WAMU, but presumably it would be a process similar to what happened with smaller banks. In that case, the FDIC would take over, but you'd still have access to your money via checks, debit cards and ATMs, and then all funds would be transferred to a different bank where you'd have complete access to it. Unless they use a different process, you wouldn't be without access to your money.
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rivka
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Ok, thanks, Lyr. [Smile]
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James Tiberius Kirk
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NYGov: AIG has "one day"

--j_k

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AvidReader
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quote:
At 1515 GMT, AIG was down 22 percent at 3.71 dollars, taking its worth down to 10 billion dollars.
quote:
News reports said AIG was is crisis talks at the New York Federal Reserve, seeking a short-term loan of as much as 75 billion dollars to avert a cash crunch and bankruptcy.
I strongly suspect I'm going to need new car insurance.
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James Tiberius Kirk
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You and millions of others. I hadn't realized how big AIG is. The Fed is reconsidering a loan.

I keep thinking about that kid from those commercials.

"Don't worry son, we're with AIG."

--j_k

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BannaOj
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Avid reader.
found this link on CNN. As far as actual insurance day-to-day you are probably fine.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/16/news/companies/aig_questions/?postversion=2008091612

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AvidReader
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Hooray!
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maui babe
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I don't have AIG, but the driver who rear-ended my daughter a couple of weeks ago does. I just spoke with the claims agent yesterday, and she indicated I'd be getting a check within a week. Hearing the dire news on NPR this morning has me a bit worried, but I'm reassured by the faq above.

Scary times.

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fugu13
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CT: it really depends on what is meant by 'privatized', but probably not. Assuming we mean individual retirement accounts, those accounts would have been shifted into low-risk investments for anyone approaching retirement, and for anyone not approaching retirement they wouldn't have had access to their money until things recovered, anyways.

There could theoretically be some effects if someone is at the cusp of switching to more conservative investments, though they wouldn't be felt for years, and could be almost entirely circumvented by rearranging the reallocation plan.

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MrSquicky
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quote:
and for anyone not approaching retirement they wouldn't have had access to their money until things recovered, anyways.
Unless they were disabled.
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ClaudiaTherese
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quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
... those accounts would have been shifted into low-risk investments for anyone approaching retirement...

Honest question (and you have to use short words with me [Smile] ): before last week, wouldn't Merrill Lynch, AIG, et al, all have been considered low risk investments?

---

Edited to add: I think I don't understand the timing context of your answer; i.e., is it "would [already] have been shifted into low-risk investments" or "would have been shifted into low-risk investments [in response to recent changes]?"

Thanks so much.

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James Tiberius Kirk
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The NYTimes says the Fed will take an 80% stake in AIG and provide a $85 billion loan.

--j_k

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TomDavidson
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Oh, wow. That's a huge mistake.
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King of Men
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Am I mistaken, or is 85 billion fairly serious money even for the government?
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TomDavidson
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Yeah. It's like a whole week in Iraq.
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King of Men
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Well, Iraq is a notoriously expensive war, no? But in that case, why is it such a mistake? It seems to me that 80% of a company known to have assets in the trillions if only they could be untangled is a bit of a bargain at 85 billion.
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Lyrhawn
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That's pretty serious money, even for the government. The Federal budget is around 3 trillion dollars, so 85 billion is, off the top of my head, almost 3% of the budget?

I don't know economics as well as some of you, but I agree with Tom, that's a huge mistake. The government is handing out money like candy.

For someone more well versed than I, what is the upside/downside of bailing out or not bailing out a company like AIG? In other words, what does the government hope to gain from such a massive infusion of money, or what is it trying to prevent losing?

To think the Fed was balking just a few days ago at any further bailouts and Congress was rolling their eyes at the Big Three asking for a secured loan that was either half or a fourth as big as what AIG is getting (depending on which story you read).

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BlackBlade
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The government could afford to let Lehman crumble but many market analysts are saying that AIG collapsing would represent the first disaster on par with the Great Depression.
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AvidReader
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quote:
He thought the near brush with catastrophe would bring about an acceleration of efforts within the Treasury and the Fed to put safety controls on the use of credit default swaps.

“They’re going to tighten the screws and say, ‘We want some safeguards on this market,’ ” he said of the Fed and the Treasury.

The swaps are not securities and are not regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. And while they perform the same function as an insurance policy, they are not insurance in the conventional sense, so insurance regulators do not monitor them either.

I agree with this 100%. Promoting a free market shouldn't mean there are no rules. And I'm all for keeping a close eye on the guys who stand to make large swaths of cash off a company regardless of how it performs.

The things we let CEOs and boards get away with today is disgusting and harmful to businesses and their employees. Both parties should be ashamed of themselves for letting them get away with all the outrageous post-WorldCom/Enron/etc scandals, including the bad credit glut.

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fugu13
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CT: would have been shifted into low risk investments simply because retirement was approaching.

Any individual stock is a very high-risk investment, as is any managed fund. Any index fund is a high risk investment in the short term (say, under five years, perhaps longer).

Someone approaching retirement should have little to no money (at least, that they'll need within the next five or ten years) in index funds, much less anything higher risk. The money needed for the near future in retirement should be rolled into much safer investments such as CDs, money-market accounts, and short term bonds. All of these are doing just fine.

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fugu13
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Regarding AIG, without voicing an opinion, the reason the gov't bailed out AIG is that they were on the insuring side of large amounts of credit insurance for large numbers of banks (and other financial institutions).

That is, right now banks have (or are at least allowed to pretend they have) insurance against certain large moves in the credit of things they are invested in, because they have agreed to make payments to AIG in exchange for AIG taking on that risk (basically).

If AIG goes away, that shield disappears, and there's suddenly a lot more unchecked risk being held. As the current situation has amply demonstrated that even with such insurance in place there is a lot of risk going around, the extra risk would probably lead to more failures. How many and who is probably unknown, except for some notions by those who are very familiar with AIG's customers.

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King of Men
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Let me see if I can understand the basics of what's going on, with Hatrackers in the starring roles. I, Bank of Men, have lent $1000 to kq so she can buy a house. There is some nonzero risk that she will have an attack of hives and be unable to repay her loan, so I buy insurance from Papa Janitor against that risk, at say one dollar, which reduces my profit and my risk from the loan. PJ then turns around and lends that dollar, minus ten cents of capital requirement, to someone else.

Now, when I lent that money, kq looked like a reasonable risk. But now I've heard through malicious Hatrack gossip that ketchup is going out of fashion and the mustard heresy is gaining ground. So I take out my insurance policy from PJ and check that it covers this instance, which it does, but hang on. The people PJ lent money to are also not such great risks anymore. If kq defaults, it's not clear that he will have the cash on hand to pay me the balance of her loan. He has the assets, more or less - lots of people owe him money - but it's not necessarily stuff he can lay hands on quickly. And now Lisa, who I owe money to, is knocking on the door, saying "KoM, can you make the next payment?" And the thing is, I'm damned if I know! On paper I've got everything I need - kq owes me money, PJ will pay if she can't - but it's not clear whether they can actually pay me or not. Usually I would put such a thing on my credit card and eat some interest payments, but now my bank has lowered my limit because, b'God, they're not sure about whether I can pay. And I've got a loan payment due tomorrow...

So now the Fed can be played by OSC, who is pretty well off by Hatrack standards. He agrees to lend PJ enough money that I can be sure I'll get my insurance, if not the original loan - the ketchups are still in trouble, no bailout for them - but only in exchange for 80 percent of the profits. In other words, 80 cents of that dollar I paid PJ for my insurance. Which is probably a fairly good deal, because after all it's not certain that kq won't be able to pay; we only have vicious Hatrack gossip to go on for that. So it could well be that PJ won't have to pay me anything.

Is this a reasonable picture of what's going on?

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Blayne Bradley
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I lost you at "Let.." [Wink] [Big Grin]

Seriously, yeah that sounds a bit right.

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ClaudiaTherese
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Thanks, fugu13. I'll go chew on that for awhile.

That was a glimmer of light, King of Men -- thanks.

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fugu13
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One thing worth noting about some of the instruments (such as credit swaps) people are railing against as alleged causes for this downturn is that some companies that are doing pretty well (given the economic environment), such as JP Morgan, divested most of their positions in areas suffering problems in advance because they used changes in the prices of credit swaps related to those sectors as indicators of the riskiness of those sectors.

KoM's description is a decent approximation. Credit insurance, and in particular credit swaps, are a lot more complicated thing (especially when neither party in the swap is the one whose credit is in question), but they're pretty hard to explain thoroughly.

And yes, AIG's balance sheet is in decent shape (for the current situation), it is its cash balance that is in trouble.

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rivka
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quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
KoM's description is a decent approximation.

Also very funny. [Big Grin]
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Chris Bridges
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[goes off to buy mustard futures]
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BannaOj
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Skimming an article I came across this:

quote:
Rabbit said stocks were also under seasonal pressures, with September typically the worst month of the year for the major gauges.

[Big Grin] Of course I thought of our Rabbit first...

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/17/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?cnn=yes

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