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Blayne, of COURSE everyone who disagrees with you is wrong. Even if they lived there, know people actually experiencing the events, or have an actual education in these matters.
Carry on the good fight! Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: My support is based on the fact that there is so much sheer sinophobia in online discussions, after doing fact checking and finding that 99% of these are utterly nonesense I choose to take a stand.
Does denial of basic civil liberties fall under the 99% "nonsense" or the 1% truth?
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Blayne Bradley
unregistered
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quote:Originally posted by Mucus: Blayne: *facepalm* You've outright said that Taiwanese would not care about Tibetans on sole account of the fact that Tibetans are not Han. Period. Not only would my Taiwanese colleagues be rather surprised by this amazingly broad characterization but the implication that this is actually a good thing ... thats just *facepalm*
BlackBlade: Sure, "lured" I can live with. I just have a special objection to "move" (in the prior wording) as if the people involved were cattle.
Then there is a misunderstanding, what I meant to say is "the political status of Tibet is not a primary Taiwanese election issue" there are also people who find fat people sexy I don't understand them either *shrug*.
quote: Does denial of basic civil liberties fall under the 99% "nonsense" or the 1% truth?
I started off in Perspectives.com whose idea of a point is "nuke Three Gorges Dam problem solved" and know someone who thinks that for America to insure the 21st century to be an extension of the American century the US needs to pull out of Iraq forget about Iran and invade China "now" before they're "too powerful".
I have consented in the past that there are human rights issues but what people fail to see is that this matter is improving over time, unless your one of those minimalist libertarians who think any form of government control is wrong then its hopeless discussing it.
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First and foremost, let me begin by criticizing your colloquial use of the term 'Colony.' Do you know a damn thing about early 20th Century British Colonial Law? The British invasion of Tibet in 1904-05 was indeed spurred on primarily over fears of an increased Russian presence in what is today Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region. These fears were connected to the ongoing Great Game in Central Asia between Great Britain and Russia where British fears over the loss of the land routes out of the Ottoman Empire through Iraq and Persia into the British Raj. Mind you, at that time period, British policy was by-and-large concerned with one main objective: Maintaining the routes to British holdings in India and the Far East.
Addressing once more your use of the term, "Colony" as it applied to Tibet is a great stretch of the meaning of the word "colony" and the reality of British colonial policy as it played out during the Victorian and Edwardian Eras. During the Victorian Era, the term colony applied wholesale to almost every imperial possession overseas until the Dominion of Canada Act, 1869, granted Canada, your nation of birth if I'm not mistaken, formal dominion status within the British Empire. However, prior to 1869 one could technically divide colonies up into two separate political entities: Settler colonies with an Imperial Governor and non-elected Legislative and Executive Councils, examples of these being Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and Imperial Protectorates run by a military governor or an imperial attache (my knowledge of early to mid-19th Century imperial protectorates is sketchy at best so forgive me if I'm mistaken), this being the primary form of government in India during most of the 19th Century until the post of Governor-General was created.
With that out of the way, Tibet's status as a colony as you described it is factually incorrect. The 1904-05 British invasion of Tibet as a reaction to Russian imperial ambitions in Central Asia was a success for the most part. However, upon reaching Lhasa the British found that governing Tibet was harder than they had expected given the rough terrain, harsh weather, lack of transportation infrastructure, and generally non-friendly natives. By the end of the decade, Britain had abandoned her military ambitions in Tibet to focus its attentions on more pressing matters, namely the growing tensions in Europe between Germany, France, and the mounting tensions in the Balkans region. Legally speaking, Tibet never had a formal Protectorate declared, never had a permanent military garrison stationed in Lhasa or any other Tibetan city, never had an imperial governor dispatched from London to oversee the situation there, and quite frankly, was seen very quickly by the British government as a waste of manpower and resources, and was soon after left to manage its own affairs.
The current situation in Tibet is a bit more complicated. After the British evacuation of Lhasa, the collapsing Qing Dynasty never reasserted its authority over the area. Whether or not it had fully asserted its authority over Tibet during the 250 years of the Qing Dynasty is a matter of debate among Far East scholars given the cockeyed fashion in which the Manchu governed the more...distant areas of China, especially those without a majority Han Chinese population. From around 1908 (forgive me again for not remembering the year when the British evacuated Lhasa) until the PRC launched its invasion of Tibet in 1950, Tibet remained largely isolated from the comings and goings of the outside world. While the province directly north of it, modern Xinjiang-Uyghur, experienced several large upheavals from the collapse of the Qing Dynasty in 1912 until the end of the Second World War in 1945, Tibet remained insulated from world affairs due to its geographic location. After the end of the Second World War and the subsequent outbreak of hostilities between the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party, Tibet still remained politically isolated.
It was not until the British formally granted India and Pakistan independence in 1947 that Tibet gained any importance to Chinese security. After the Nationalists were routed from mainland China in 1949, Chairman Mao began looking west towards modern Xinjiang-Uyghur and Tibet in his goals for reasserting Chinese sovereignty. The break away Second Uyghur Republic in modern Xinjiang-Uyghur was absorbed by the PRC following the end of the Chinese Civil War.
Tibet was seen by Mao and CCP leadership as an effective buffer state between China and the nations of India and Pakistan, both of which had already fought one major land conflict following the recognition of formal independence in 1947. The 1950 invasion of Tibet was a limited affair at best with only a few hundred thousand troops at most involved in the military action. The invasion would be overshadowed in coming months following the outbreak of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula between North and South Korea which would prompt the UN to dispatch peacekeeping forces to the Far East.
The last major issue would be the 1959 Tibetan Uprising, the event that drove the Dali Lama from Tibet into exile in northern India. The Tibetans attempted to assert their independence from China after nine years of military occupation, but failed to toss the Chinese out. Without aid from any neighboring country, the Tibetans lost the revolt and were once more placed under Beijing jurisdiction. Tibet was heavily garrisoned following the 1959 Uprising and was used as a staging ground during the Sino-Indian Border Conflict in the early 1960's.
It was not until the advent of the overland railroad routes that large scale Han Chinese settlement of Tibet began in the last quarter of the 20th Century. Native Tibetans are NOT Han Chinese, they never have been Han Chinese, and they never WILL be Han Chinese. They have more in common with the nomadic tribes of the Central Asian steppe and the residents of modern Bhutan and Nepal than they do with ethnic Han Chinese settlers in Tibet.
The only reason that the Chinese government has made such a big fuss over the status of Tibet as an "integral" part of China has been, in large part, due to the fears that any movements towards autonomy and self-government in Tibet would be prompted by similar movements in Xinjiang-Uyghur and Taiwan.
Taiwan and Tibet are politically connected, just not in the way you think they are. Beijing fears that a unilateral Taiwanese Declaration of Independence would spur on similar independence movements in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Guangxi Autonomous Region, Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region, and of course, Tibet Autonomous Region. Noticing a pattern here with the feared independence movements? They're all Autonomous Regions for a reason! Legally, the Politburo can deploy armed forces into those regions at a moment's notice without any prior authorization from the People's Congress, the Prime Minister, or the President.
I'll just end it here, so I don't bore you to death with all my relevant and pertinent information that you seem to be lacking in...
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quote:Then there is a misunderstanding, what I meant to say is "the political status of Tibet is not a primary Taiwanese election issue" there are also people who find fat people sexy I don't understand them either *shrug*.
Blayne. Seriously. Did you HAVE TO GO THERE? Do you not understand that that is potentially personally offensive to people you interact with on this forum?
Posts: 21182 | Registered: Sep 2004
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quote:Then there is a misunderstanding, what I meant to say is "the political status of Tibet is not a primary Taiwanese election issue" there are also people who find fat people sexy I don't understand them either *shrug*.
Blayne. Seriously. Did you HAVE TO GO THERE? Do you not understand that that is potentially personally offensive to people you interact with on this forum?
Yeah, that is unnessasarily rude. Posts: 9942 | Registered: Mar 2003
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quote:Then there is a misunderstanding, what I meant to say is "the political status of Tibet is not a primary Taiwanese election issue" there are also people who find fat people sexy I don't understand them either *shrug*.
Blayne. Seriously. Did you HAVE TO GO THERE? Do you not understand that that is potentially personally offensive to people you interact with on this forum?
Like me.
Seriously, dude. Not cool. At all.
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DasGeneral, welcome to Hatrack. Please tell us a bit about yourself.
(What, do even first posters on Hatrack bash on Blayne and on semantics no less?)
Edit to add: Blayne: ... For my part, fair enough. I may add though, just because you encountered some nuts on perspective.com does not mean you need to go to the opposite extreme to "average them out".
quote:Originally posted by Blayne Bradley: I started off in Perspectives.com whose idea of a point is "nuke Three Gorges Dam problem solved" and know someone who thinks that for America to insure the 21st century to be an extension of the American century the US needs to pull out of Iraq forget about Iran and invade China "now" before they're "too powerful".
I have consented in the past that there are human rights issues but what people fail to see is that this matter is improving over time, unless your one of those minimalist libertarians who think any form of government control is wrong then its hopeless discussing it.
[tangent] I started out on perspectives.com as well. Just thinking about it brings back bad memories. I eventually quit when I realized that (a) it was taking up hours of my time each night and (b) the posters on there were constantly making me angry. It's appalling how ignorant and bigoted a large chunk of the posters there are.
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DasGeneral: For the sake of accuracy, I think Blayne was saying Tibet was NOT a colony while it was I who was arguing that for a time they were a colony in all but name.
I'm fairly moved that the Dalai Lhama would take such a strong stand against the violence. It was the right move to make IMHO. I'm so mad I was out of the country when he visited my school!
Blayne: Regardless of whether things are improving, they are not improving because the government is becoming more honest and accessible to the people. History classes there are a pathetic joke, government leaders essentially hand pick their successors for the most part, the gap between the rich and the poor is increasing with no middle class emerging, and the male:female ratio is widening, (as in males are starting to out number females 2:1 with that ratio increasing to 3:1 in 20 years.)
That's a recipe for massive social upheaval and revolution. Things might be livable, even prosperous now, but underneath there is cantankerous rotting discontent. I just hope the government is smart enough to call a spade a spade eventually and that the people won't hold the last 60 years against whatever administration is in power then.
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quote:Then there is a misunderstanding, what I meant to say is "the political status of Tibet is not a primary Taiwanese election issue" there are also people who find fat people sexy I don't understand them either *shrug*.
the blayne method: to keep people from focusing on your incoherence, spice up your posts with some blanket offensiveness.
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quote:Then there is a misunderstanding, what I meant to say is "the political status of Tibet is not a primary Taiwanese election issue" there are also people who find fat people sexy I don't understand them either *shrug*.
the blayne method: to keep people from focusing on your incoherence, spice up your posts with some blanket offensiveness.
Thats a quote from Zero Punctuation and making fun of no other then myself I am 5'11" and 235lbs I thought people saw my picture.
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BlackBlade: A bit of an exaggeration, no? I've met a fair number of immigrants from the mainland middle class who would be rather surprised that they don't *exist* and statistics from independent publications normally estimate the middle class at 100 million which is a pretty good improvement a little over 30 years out from the Cultural Revolution and almost complete poverty. Their history classes are also surprisingly good when it comes to stuff outside of Communism and Marxism, which actually leaves a surprising amount. I'd put many of them (when they were in school) up against the average North American middle-class student in a quiz on European history, Roman history, or even the history of China up to and excluding the cultural revolution.
Sure, we can argue till the cows come home whether the current government would do better or worse than some imaginary substitute democracy, but for now its not all that bad compared to some of the possible alternatives that could have occurred (Balkanization like colonial Africa, a continuation of the monarchy, colonization by the Japanese). In fact, its even debatable whether the average Chinese person would be better served by an Russian-style democracy rather than the current state of affairs.
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DasGeneral I am saying and have been saying and have been arguing in over 4-5 posts that Tibet was and is most definately NOT a Colony.
B) I have never said Tibetans were Han Chinese, why do people keep bringing this up?
So DasGeneral I await your reply.
To BlackBlade:
Look up Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao and current events in China 2000 onwards and you will find that many many efforts have been made to increase transparency, make the media more invigerated and independent, and increase public discurse on government policy. As well as efforts to strengthen rule of law, to fight pollution and to find ways to narrow the gap between rich and poor, and they do have a middle class, theyre middle class current outnumbers every man, woman, and child in the United States.
The gender problem and demographics is troubling but I fail to see any clear means to solve it, however it should correct itself as more of Chinas population Urbanizes. things are still "bad" but Im certain when playing World of Warcraft or Eve-Online I can find many ethnic Chinese nationals who I can find many things in common young adult college student to young adult college student. Things are better now then there were in 1989, better then then in 1970, better in 1970 then in 1950. Things are constantly improving, constantly changing.
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Hmm that begs the question how does one determine what constitutes middle class? I'm middle class, family has a home business doing pet cremations and ceramics but we make 18,000$ a year. If we consider my family as the lowest spectrum of middle class and convert it to the Chinese equivilent and I think we can get roughly 300,000,000 as "middle class".
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quote:Originally posted by Sid Meier: ... I'm middle class, family has a home business doing pet cremations and ceramics but we make 18,000$ a year. ...
posted
18K a year for a family of...what, 5 (you've mentioned both a brother and a sister. Are those your only siblings?)? That sounds to me like it would be below the poverty line.
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I have a 2000$ computer, and 800$ laptop, my brother has a 600$ laptop (came 3 months later so its better then mine grr!) my family has 2 cars, a van, we have a House that has 2 floors, a basement, a second building thats roughly larger for our "shop" for ceramics production which is 2 floors, we own about 2 square kilometers of swampland that also serves to provide us with maple syrup, live in the ritsy wealthier part of town where all the old people go to live the remainder of their retirement. And I have opposite of a beach, with dock, with boats its a major tourist attraction.
We have a washing machine, a clothes washer, a clothes dryer and some 5-7 rooms in our house. (both floors are really big rooms with 2-3 smaller rooms attached).
I'ld qualify that as Middle Class. I am also 10 minutes away from a major sky resort, a Federal Customs College where yankees come to learn how to "properly" patrol the border from the Mounties.
If that is not middle class then what the heck are poor people complaining about.
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quote:Originally posted by Noemon: 18K a year for a family of...what, 5 (you've mentioned both a brother and a sister. Are those your only siblings?)? That sounds to me like it would be below the poverty line.
My sister moved out so its down to 4, but yes it used to be mostly 5 people.
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yes, we have an oven where we throw in dogs, cats etc and ocne theyre burned to ashes brush out the bones, crush them putem in a nice looking urn and give it back to the grieving owner.
posted
Sounds like your parents are doing a pretty good job of making that 18K go a long way. I'm not sure how they're able to do so, but more power to 'em.
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quote: Paradoxically, the power of the Chinese intellectual is amplified by China's repressive political system, where there are no opposition parties, no independent trade unions, no public disagreements between politicians and a media that exists to underpin social control rather than promote political accountability. Intellectual debate in this world can become a surrogate for politics—if only because it is more personal, aggressive and emotive than anything that formal politics can muster. While it is true there is no free discussion about ending the Communist party's rule, independence for Tibet or the events of Tiananmen Square, there is a relatively open debate in leading newspapers and academic journals about China's economic model, how to clean up corruption or deal with foreign policy issues like Japan or North Korea. Although the internet is heavily policed, debate is freer here than in the printed word (although one of the most free-thinking bloggers, Hu Jia, was recently arrested). And behind closed doors, academics and thinkers will often talk freely about even the most sensitive topics, such as political reform. The Chinese like to argue about whether it is the intellectuals that influence decision-makers, or whether groups of decision-makers use pet intellectuals as informal mouthpieces to advance their own views. Either way, these debates have become part of the political process, and are used to put ideas in play and expand the options available to Chinese decision-makers. Intellectuals are, for example, regularly asked to brief the politburo in "study sessions"; they prepare reports that feed into the party's five-year plans; and they advise on the government's white papers.
quote: As it creates these zones, Beijing is embarking on a building spree, criss-crossing the African continent with new roads and railways—investing far more than the old colonial powers ever did. Moreover, China's presence is changing the rules of economic development. The IMF and the World Bank used to drive the fear of God into government officials and elected leaders, but today they struggle to be listened to even by the poorest countries of Africa. The IMF spent years negotiating a transparency agreement with the Angolan government only to be told hours before the deal was due to be signed, in March 2004, that the authorities in Luanda were no longer interested in the money: they had secured a $2bn soft loan from China. This tale has been repeated across the continent—from Chad to Nigeria, Sudan to Algeria, Ethiopia and Uganda to Zimbabwe.
This would probably have something to do with differences in health care, cost of living, etc.
Although consumer goods tend to be comparable in price from what I have seen, for the most part. So go figure.
I would imagine that one cannot uniformly say that "an income of such-and-such a number" is lower, upper, or middle class without taking into context the country one is speaking of.
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the final paragraph i find rather striking.
quote: China is not an intellectually open society. But the emergence of freer political debate, the throng of returning students from the west and huge international events like the Olympics are making it more so. And it is so big, so pragmatic and so desperate to succeed that its leaders are constantly experimenting with new ways of doing things. They used special economic zones to test out a market philosophy. Now they are testing a thousand other ideas—from deliberative democracy to regional alliances. From this laboratory of social experiments, a new world-view is emerging that may in time crystallise into a recognisable Chinese model—an alternative, non-western path for the rest of the world to follow.
posted
While I agree with many of BB's political points, China has one of the largest middle classes in the world, and that strata is growing at an extremely fast rate.
My position is roughly: the situation in China, both politically and economically, is and has been improving rapidly. However, fairly significant resistance to some cultural-political (and to a lesser degree, economic) changes has long been a reaction of many parts of the central gov't (and others), and the tools of authoritarian totalitarianism are still employed regularly in horrible and deplorable acts, albeit in a more disjointed fashion than several decades ago.
Posts: 15770 | Registered: Dec 2001
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Mucus: 100 Million out of 6 Billion is alittle over 1.6% of the population. I can't say for certain, but every article I read about economics in Chinese indicates that the rich are getting richer while the poor go nowhere.
My posts lately have been similar to how I've talked about the KMT in previous threads. I'm a bit overly pessimistic about China in response to Blayne's fanboism.
Although I'd agree that Chinese students understanding of history outside of China would be comparable to anybody else, it would depend on what you test for. On the matter of names, places, dates, I think they would do extraordinarily well. But when it comes to concepts, cause and effect they would likely perform dismally. Beyond that, it seems silly to praise their understanding of foreign history when it's their own history that they ought to understand before they worry about others. Sure their knowledge of Qing dynasty politics might be just fine, although much of their primary source material was destroyed in the cultural revolution, so who knows? But I still remember watching a news report in Hong Kong where reporters asked everyday Chinese people what they thought of the events at Tian An Men square, an event that happened merely 18 years ago, and the overwhelming response was along the lines of, "The protestors were enemies to the stability of China, and the government was right to act as they did."
Now perhaps they were simply saying what the government would want to hear, so as to avoid repurcussions for saying what they really felt, but even in anonymous polling the answer remains the same. Leaders of the rally have said in interviews that Chinese democratic support since Tian An Men has waned steadily because people are starting to believe the lies they are taught at school, and those who do speak out are still hauled off to reeducation camps or often just disappear completely.
Maybe a combination of slow steady political progress, coupled with consistant quick economic progress will leave China in good stead. I just worry there is still a very high chance that one day there will be a bloody violent upheaval in Chinese society, and it won't just be the Chinese people who are involved.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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quote:But I still remember watching a news report in Hong Kong where reporters asked everyday Chinese people what they thought of the events at Tian An Men square, and event that happened merely 18 years ago, and the overwhelming response was along the lines of, "The protestors were enemies to the stability of China, and the government was right to act as they did."
Now perhaps they were simply saying what the government would want to hear so as to avoid repurcussions for saying what they really felt, but even in anonymous polling the answer remains the same. Leaders of the rally have said in interviews that Chinese democratic support since Tian An Men has waned steadily because people are starting to believe the lies they are taught at school, and those who do speak out are still hauled off to reeducation camps or often just disappear completely.
That is very sad.
I remember going to a protest at the Chinese Embassy in L.A. at the time. I was 6 at the time, I think... I read about it in the newspaper and wanted to do something. My dad took us. I think that was the beginning of my social activism...
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quote:Originally posted by ketchupqueen: (Sorry that wasn't really relevant. Just brings back a looot of memories.)
I think it's awesome that your dad took you out to protest, it's a very important lesson to engage in social activism.
I think I was also 6 maybe 7 years old when the protest happened. I can still remember massive sympathy protests in Hong Kong, in response to the students at Tian An Men. There was an endless sea of people marching through some of the main streets of down town Hong Kong.
They still hold yearly candle light vigels on the anniversary of the government crackdown.
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*nods* I remember very clearly being horrified. How we discussed (and even my little brother got involved) what "democracy" meant, why some people didn't have it, and what were and were not acceptable actions of a government, and what happens when power is misused.
We also talked a lot about what we would do if WE were in charge.
That protest and the time surrounding it is one of my most vivid early childhood memories. We asked what we could do, my dad heard about the protest, explained what a "protest" was, and we begged to go. When we got there it was immensely powerful. We listened to speakers, we sang protest songs (we knew all the words to "We Shall Overcome" and "Blowin' in the Wind" already, and learned a few new ones that day), and we were on tv 'cause some news people spotted me standing on the fountain and my (three-year-old) brother on my dad's shoulders. They asked if we knew what was going on and I think they were a little shocked when I gave a succinct summary of the situation and why we were there, and my brother said, "Jesus and Buddha both taught that we should not kill other people. Killing people is wrong." But it made for a good newsbite on the protest.
It really meant something to me to know that even if all you can do is raise your voice to let people know something is wrong, that is an important thing to do. It's a lesson that has stuck with me.
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quote:Originally posted by Bob_Scopatz: I assume NPR isn't even available in Israel, or are you saying that they're so anti-Israel that most Israelis would never choose to listen to them?
I don't know if it's available there, but I used to work for the husband of one of the more outrageous of the NPR Israel correspondants. Other than her political vileness, she was a nice person. Her husband refers to NPR as "National Palestinian Radio". I found it hard to understand how they could stay together.
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Of course its a small number. China is still a very poor country, overall, as much growth as it has had. However, it is a much larger number than it used to be, and it grows rapidly. In order to reach larger numbers, the number of middle class must go through the smaller ones. For a country as poor as China was so recently, a middle class of that size is pretty remarkable.
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quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Mucus: 100 Million out of 6 Billion is alittle over 1.6% of the population.
The population if china is about 1.3 billion, world population is 6 billion, that makes it about 6.7 percent.
Posts: 959 | Registered: Oct 2005
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quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: 100 Million out of 6 Billion is alittle over 1.6% of the population.
100 million where there probably used to be < 10 million in the middle class only 30 years ago. it may not sound impressive for someone in the first world. But in the third world? Thats damn good.
Also, China only has roughly 1.3 billion which makes it actually 8%.
Edit to add: Scratch this. Thread moves fast.
quote: I can't say for certain, but every article I read about economics in Chinese indicates that the rich are getting richer while the poor go nowhere.
And most articles I've read indicate that the poor are being raised out of poverty in dramatic numbers while the middle class is growing at very good rate. Indeed, thats part of the reason for the recent boosts in commodity prices, they're attempting to consume in the same way we do with rather predictable results. In fact, I rather suspect that the first real challenges to the government from the middle class in China will be when the current boom *stops.*
quote: My posts lately have been similar to how I've talked about the KMT in previous threads. I'm a bit overly pessimistic about China in response to Blayne's fanboism.
Indeed. You have the option of ignoring him.
quote: But I still remember watching a news report in Hong Kong where reporters asked everyday Chinese people what they thought of the events at Tian An Men square, an event that happened merely 18 years ago, and the overwhelming response was along the lines of, "The protestors were enemies to the stability of China, and the government was right to act as they did."
I think there's a huge difference between "I think their history classes are awful" and "I think their history classes teach them to disagree with me."
Of course, the REAL disagreement that we (or rather me) have with that statement is not whether the students were a threat to the stability of China, but that we think that what the protesters were protesting is *worthwhile.*
We think that the temporary pain of transitioning to democracy and a less repressive society is "worth it." But thats a disagreement in terms of values and predictions, not in facts.
Of course much of this is again, academic. The number of people that have access to even *this* type of education is increasing rapidly compared to just thirty years ago. They used to burn Western books, instruments, people probably.
Now, they learn about the West. Even the youtube block on news from Tibet is not particularly effective from what I've heard. Even if they get a CCP bias, I think thats a good thing and better than nothing.
Heck, even the basic measure of literacy is at roughly 90% which is miles ahead of 80% illiterate in 1950 and I think thats important not to forget.
quote: Leaders of the rally have said in interviews that Chinese democratic support since Tian An Men has waned steadily because people are starting to believe the lies they are taught at school, and those who do speak out are still hauled off to reeducation camps or often just disappear completely.
I disagree. The news reports out of Shanghai are rather heartening with middle-class protesters protesting and *actually* getting what they want. With the addition of Hong Kong, the slow progress there, and with free traffic back and forth, there are encouraging changes.
Even the addition of capitalists to the party broadens the scope of the party to include people that very literally are "bourgeoise". That is, the upper class in China is quickly becoming that spoiled, rich, business-like class that we see in the industrial revolution in Europe which can only lead to change.
In fact, if you read behind the lines, the massive and pervasive discontent with "corruption" in China is really symptomatic of the fact that many people want change. It is just that with current prosperity, people won't rock the boat if they can just wait for better things. When good times stop, *then* we will see things get really interesting.
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For example, I think this is a very positive sign of a growing awareness attributable to increased affluence and education, among middle-class Chinese of their own problems.
quote: A Chinese government website set up for the public to complain about corruption crashed within a day of launching under the volume of cases reported. The website was constructed by the National Bureau of Corruption Prevention to collect information on corrupt activities as part of an ongoing purge by the Beijing authorities.
...
"The enthusiasm that greeted the launch of the website reflects the growing frustration felt by the general public towards corruption at government level," reported the state news agency, Xinhua.
Many of the messages lodged on the website were congratulatory, but nearly as many were from sceptical members of the public who questioned its work.
A comment from Qu Han, who said he was a peasant with no formal schooling, claimed that despite the Communist Party’s slogans against corruption, the problem has become even more widespread.
"Is there any point in setting up this bureau? Unchecked power will of course result in corruption," said another message.
"So long as the system doesn’t change, any [anti-corruption] effort is bound to be quite fruitless."
Another message said: "This will have no effect at all ... we even have to put a question mark next to your own moral standards."
The message concluded: "I don’t expect anything from you." Despite the website urging people to use their real names, most used pseudonyms. Another entry was signed: "Don’t take revenge on me."
quote:And most articles I've read indicate that the poor are being raised out of poverty in dramatic numbers while the middle class is growing at very good rate. Indeed, thats part of the reason for the recent boosts in commodity prices, they're attempting to consume in the same way we do with rather predictable results. In fact, I rather suspect that the first real challenges to the government from the middle class in China will be when the current boom *stops.*
I'm not disagreeing that there was a middle class boom, over the past 30 years or so. But that this is not sustainable, and that it will suddenly stop, which is what you seem to be indicating as well.
quote:Indeed. You have the option of ignoring him.
I suppose. I'm not very good at ignoring people. But it's true that I could remain more objective rather then slanting my statements in response to others.
quote:Even the addition of capitalists to the party broadens the scope of the party to include people that very literally are "bourgeoise". That is, the upper class in China is quickly becoming that spoiled, rich, business-like class that we see in the industrial revolution in Europe which can only lead to change.
In fact, if you read behind the lines, the massive and pervasive discontent with "corruption" in China is really symptomatic of the fact that many people want change. It is just that with current prosperity, people won't rock the boat if they can just wait for better things. When good times stop, *then* we will see things get really interesting.
Yes people in China want positive change, they want to be progressive. But can't you see that that was the very thing being offered to them by Mao? The Chinese people bought it because they didn't have an adequate understanding of history or sociology. They were promised an effect, and the cause was explained, and because they did not have an adequate background in those concepts they believed that the process worked as described.
Things will indeed get interesting when the boom stops for a consistant period of time. But I feel like alot of good intentions will be forcedly pushed forward, and disaster will come out of it instead of the intended progressive reform.
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What Mao offered was progressive at least compared to the times of the disunited of China, foreign humiliations, and economic dispare.
BlackBlade have you perhaps read the China oriented Tom Clancy novels? I think that accounts for a good portion of your skewed world view, you say one thing, get corrected and say whats what "I always said along" you said "China had no middle class" now your suddenly saying "well they have a middle class, but its growth is not sustainable *nods*"
What economic proof can you provide that China's economic growth is not sustainable when every single economic indicator says otherwise? At the above article I linked shows that the Chinese are doing every single effort to insure that the "spice must flow".
Economic slows down and stagnates but only after the econom has quite a bit of time to mature, the United States had what? 100 years of what I could arguably call "boom" with one or two minor interruptions until the 70's?
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quote:BlackBlade have you perhaps read the China oriented Tom Clancy novels? I think that accounts for a good portion of your skewed world view, you say one thing, get corrected and say whats what "I always said along" you said "China had no middle class" now your suddenly saying "well they have a middle class, but its growth is not sustainable *nods*"
Wow....it's like I can't spell out my background in Chinese affairs enough. How's this for one more try. I'm 25 years old and I have spent more time living in China than in any other country. As an aside, no, I have yet to even read a single Tom Clancy novel.
And I said that at 7.6%, China has an incredibly small middle class. I am willing to concede the point that they went from having virtually no middle class as late as the 70's to having a small but not marginal middle class today.
The economic proof I can offer is that currently their economy is fueled by a manufacturing based economy. As their wealth increases and their standard of living increases, they will not be able to offer foreign countries such low costs for Chinese labor, as wages will also increase. Food prices will also increase. Fewer and fewer Chinese will be willing to work in factories much less farms and will want to work in the service industry. Those cheap manufacturing jobs will have to go somewhere else. Where? I do not know. I am skeptical that they can transition efficiently to advanced manufacturing or service based economies.
Even with the one child policy in place the population of China is increasing quickly, and the male:female ratio is widening. With such a strong emphasis on families, Chinese men will not long abide the prospect of living entire lives unmarried.
The ability of the Chinese to feed their vast population is already suffering strain, and that problem is only getting worse. They are going to have to start buying more and more food from other countries.
Couple all that with growing political unrest and rampant corruption in their economy and government and the prospect of endless Chinese prosperity seems whimsically naive IMO.
And you only think I keep changing my mind, because in fact I do. I accept new positions as new facts come to my attention. You are still stuck in 1950 with a little red book and the strange idea that Mao was good for China.
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It won't keep going at the same rate all the time, but I see no indication China will not continue to significantly increase the size of its middle class for many years to come. It isn't 'sustainable' in the sense that an entire country isn't going to become middle class, but that's true of every country
Blayne: The Chinese gov't is frantically trying to damp economic growth so that the next recession they enter isn't like our great depression. China's current rate of growth is emphatically not sustainable, a point on which economists and the Chinese gov't agree.
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BB: China has already lost a substantial number of the low value added manufacturing jobs, to countries such as Vietnam. It hasn't been a significant damper on growth, yet. This is a hopeful sign.
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quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: Yes people in China want positive change, they want to be progressive. ...
I guess this kind of leads into two questions 1) What is the best way to lead China to become a better, more democratic society? 2) What can we (as in the West) do about it?
Both questions are big and interesting enough, that I'll save them (here as a reminder) till I get a good enough time to cover them. (Man this thread is a magnet for my long posts)
Also, IIRC, you lived in Hong Kong more than any other country, not China (at the time anyways). Of course this IM(not-so)HO is better than living in China, but still
Edit to add: Hold on, maybe not. If you're saying "most of your life" you might have lived through handover. NVM.
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BlackBlade your posts however keep showing that you however seem to lack perspective or any real knowledge of the facts on the ground, already people have said "it is a remarkable feat" inregards to their middle class, and if you look at the article I linked nowhere near as "marginal" as you describe it as. Also right now your basing alot of your view on 100 million as being their middle class, please remember that this is even if true 1/3 of the total US population whose middle class is far far far less.
But here we go 5 seconds of google
quote: . A study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) found the middle class to be 19% of the population in 2003, up from 15% at the end of 1999. Using CASS criteria, in 2003, the middle class included 247 million people out of a population of 1.3 billion. (More recent statistics are not yet available.)
Your wrong yet again, a number that may very well be 300 million roughly the population or even more then the population of the entire United States population is nothing to marginalize.
Your next point has already been handidly disputed China does have a very large manufacturing based economy but then again so did Japan in the 1950's-60's they teched up, they transitioned from say crud steel to high grade refined steel, from toasters to making computers, etc. China is already starting to do the same and is out sourcing many of their jobs to india, Africa and other nations like Vietnam.
China is still self sufficient in food, food exports/imports are weird but they are still a net exporter of foodstuffs and are making huge investments to their agricultural output, read the Rise & Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy for a closer look out their agricultural investments.
The demographics situation you are describing I am going to have to ask you for proof, every indicator shows that as a country industrializes and its people move to the cities females generally wish to have smaller and smaller families as we've seen in the US, Canada, and Europe many of these places have their populations only sustained through immigration.
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Blayne, Japan's manufacturing technology in the 50s and 60s was comparatively high value-added. They had manufacturing with a value-added comparable to China's around 1900.
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Fugu while alot of what Japan produced back then was "good quality" there was alot of stuff being produced because at the time it was cheaper to make it in Japan then in the States, these businesses became unprofitable and the economic equivalent of the Prussian general Staff for Japan euthanasized and out sourced.
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Of course it was cheaper to make it in Japan than back in the states. That says nothing about the degree of value-added -- that is, how much more the products output are worth than the materials input. The amount of value-added is a way of measuring what 'level' of manufacturing is going on.
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I'm just saying that the goods produced then, they decided at oen point to produce even higher quality goods.
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Good luck in believing that countries can bring about economic transitions by 'deciding' to do so.
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