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» Hatrack River Forum » Active Forums » Books, Films, Food and Culture » There goes Chris Christie's shot at 2016 (Page 1)

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Author Topic: There goes Chris Christie's shot at 2016
Elison R. Salazar
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Must. Restrain. Endless. Mirth.
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dansigal
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I think that's a massive overreaction. This will be long forgotten in two months, let alone two years. Sure Christie is ultimately responsible, but unless there's ever any actual evidence that he had actual knowledge, this blows over.
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BlackBlade
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Agreed.
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Elison R. Salazar
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Its something his primary opponents can hit him with; a lot of things that blow over for Republicans has partly to do with the circling the wagons mentality, the right wing protection bubble does its best in those circumstances to insulate them. However Christie is outside of that bubble and he's being savaged by others on in the GOP and on the right, "if" this is just the tip of the iceberg as I've seen on other discussion forums, it could get a lot worse.

Like the "He killed grandma" thing.

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Rakeesh
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If you think that as long as this is the story-Christie staffers, even higher end staffers-went off the reservation and engaged in some political retaliation by screwing around with a city's roads-is anything like a nail in the coffin for Christie's 2016 chances...

Well, I don't know why you would think that. He's got more than enough time to weather this, and even weather it should things ratchet up a step or two.

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BlackBlade
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It's one tiny talking point his opponents can't really peg on him since he fired those involved (as he should have).

Unless something surfaces linking Christie to the decision, he can simply parry with, "I felt absolutely awful for that, and I would never have authorized it had I known."

If his opponent keeps referencing it, it will have even less of an effect. Because he can start responding to his opponents wanting to focus on character smears instead of the issues.

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Xavier
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quote:
I think that's a massive overreaction.
I actually think its a significant under-reaction. Using your political power to intentionally make life worse for thousands of your constituents for the sake of spite is just sickening to me. Not to mention the harm to democracy of forcing your political opponents to support you for fear of you intentionally harming their jurisdictions.

In a perfect world, I'd have everyone involved in this arrested for manslaughter in the death of the woman whose emergency rescue was impeded. Along with several other charges, and civil suits from everyone whose business that week was harmed.

[Mad]

(I'd like to think I'd have the same reaction if it was a democrat, perhaps with additional anger that the action harmed the party I am affiliated with.)

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Aros
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Now every time traffic is bad, the thought will strike me that my enemies are the cause, maliciously wishing me annoyance.
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Rakeesh
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I think but I'm not sure that dansigal might have been referring to the idea that Christie's ship is sunk as the overreaction, not the firing.

As for the staffers, I would not bat an eye if they were clapped in irons and sent to prison. Preferably to build some roads. If only the people who made such decisions didn't keep a weather eye on themselves being subject to those decisions too.

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dansigal
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What Rakeesh said. Right now there is zero evidence that Christie was a decision maker or even aware of what was going on. If that changes, it's a different story, but as it is, the most that can really be pinned on him is poor judgment in picking one of his senior aides.
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Xavier
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You're probably correct that his aide takes the fall and nothing can be concretely pinned on Christie.

But I think the idea that an aide independently decided to punish a town's mayor for not endorsing the governor, without the knowledge or support of said governor, to be pretty laughable. Even if Christie didn't know (which I find unlikely), at the very least I would guarantee that the aide thought the governor would approve of the action.

Added: My longshot hope is that Kelly is arrested on a serious charge, offered immunity, and reveals Christie's role.

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Samprimary
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I actually think it's fairly likely Christie didn't know.
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stilesbn
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quote:
Originally posted by Samprimary:
I actually think it's fairly likely Christie didn't know.

This does seem pretty equivalent to the times Obama has claimed ignorance. My guess is that most people's thoughts about whether he knew or didn't know divides pretty neatly down party lines.

Although in this case there are two lines with the second one being further right as they don't seem to be Christie fans either.

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BlackBlade
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I don't like Christie much, but going solely off feelings and knowledge of what Christie has done in the past (which isn't reliable) it doesn't sound like something he would do.
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Elison R. Salazar
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The guy who yelled at a teacher?
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stilesbn
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Well he did say "which isn't reliable"...
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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by Elison R. Salazar:
The guy who yelled at a teacher?

Is there some sort of correlation between people who yell at teachers and people who block traffic?
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dansigal
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quote:
My guess is that most people's thoughts about whether he knew or didn't know divides pretty neatly down party lines.
Eh, I'm a democrat, and I think it's more likely that he didn't know. Two reasons:

1) He has now come out and explicitly stated he didn't know. It's always the lie about the bad act that kills you more than the bad act. I have to think the guy is smart enough to know there's a chance he'd weather being involved in this, but there is ZERO chance he'd weather being involved in this and explicitly lying about it. Obviously people do dumb things, but I think this just makes it more likely he didn't know.

2) Running a state is HUGE job, I'm sure there are a ton of things he delegates that he doesn't have hands on knowledge about.

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kmbboots
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
quote:
Originally posted by Elison R. Salazar:
The guy who yelled at a teacher?

Is there some sort of correlation between people who yell at teachers and people who block traffic?
Blocking traffic in retribution and a governor yelling at a teacher are both the acts of a bully.
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Samprimary
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I can't wait for the upcoming republican primary. where a bunch of tea party weirdos with no chance of winning a general election whatsoever are going to be using this scandal to hammer at someone with a nonzero probability of winning a general election. That part is somewhat enjoyable.
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Lyrhawn
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The thing is, Christie already had a razor thin margin in 2016. Christie has a great, maybe fantastic chance at the general election, but his hopes of becoming the nominee were hanging by a thread.

Double Down suggested that Christie was a ticking time bomb of opposition research crap. I think there are already a ton of skeletons in his closet that primary challengers will dig up. And most of those things seem to be related to corruption and influence peddling. He also has a rather extreme history in the last two elections of putting a high value on loyalty and retribution. In other words, even if he didn't order this traffic snarl, his opponents will put it up against a history of behavior that makes it look likely he did in fact order it. I'm not 100% convinced he didn't order it.

So will this blow over? In the immediate aftermath, yeah, the primaries are still two years off. But once the primaries return, this is the sort of thing that will become a -gate - Trafficgate. The 2016 primaries won't be as bruising as the 2012 ones were, mostly because of how the GOP rejiggered everything. But he's going to take a ton of heat already and will be painted as a corrupt centrist. But you better bet two years from now this will come up, especially if there are special investigations that take up all of the next year to get to the bottom of the issue. Christie is a big name, and any news related to him is big news. This isn't blowing over, it's just going to get turned down from a boil to a simmer.

This issue is the star on top of an overloaded Christmas tree. By itself it won't kill him, but when taken with the weight of every thing else, it just might topple the tree.

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BlackBlade
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I'll just leave this here.
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Elison R. Salazar
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I don't get it.

Anyways, also apparently the Federal government will be investigating this now as it may have been a violation of the Commerce Clause/Interstate Commerce.

I'll agree with the sentiment I've seen elsewhere and I think originated by Ezra Klein, while it may be possible this isn't what "kills" his 2016 chances, its vastly increases the chances it'll lead to people finding something that will.

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BlackBlade
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Presumably if Christie shut down traffic for days over the New Jersey election, if he is not elected president he will end humanity.
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Geraine
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The average American has a very short political memory. Everyone will forget about it in the short term until it is brought up during the primaries. The Republican nominees will most likely be:


Christie
Rand Paul
Paul Ryan
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio (Not too sure on this one)
One or two governors nobody has heard about

None of them have a chance of winning against Hillary. All of them have a chance against Biden. It's really the Democrat's race to lose. The only real issue that could cause the momentum to swing in the other direction of course is Obamacare and the continued implementation.

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Elison R. Salazar
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Obamacare implementation has been steadily improving so the Republicans are probly gonna lose again. The Democratic Party has been focused on income inequality as its platform (tying it to the PPACA, which helps alleviate poverty). While Republican plans/policies/soundbytes are entirely lacking, one particular sociopath even suggested eliminating the minimum wage or reducing it to 4$/hour.
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Thesifer
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I personally believe he had complete knowledge. And if they start getting into Jail time for those involved (which they have discussed, because of things it caused - Delayed Ambulances, etc.) That person won't want to take the fall anymore as they are doing now. A "Deputy Chief of Staff" is actually pretty close to working directly with Christie. If the Deputy Chief of Staff for Obama does something, you won't get people laying off and saying Obama probably didn't know.

There's a big difference between "Someone at the IRS / Obama" and "Someone at State / Obama"...

If Obama's Deputy CoS does something really really stupid, an attempt at impeachment would already be underway.

As for Christie, I don't think it was done because of the "Mayor of Fort Lee didn't support re-election" I think the version of event Maddow put out seem more likely. About it being a retaliation for a Senator voting against something Christie wanted.

Maybe I've been watching "The Wire" too much, and seeing how often people 'take the fall' or do things acting like they are "off the reservation", but personally... as much as I've seen of Christie, he seems just the type to pull some bullying tactics.

He might not have thought his Deputy CoS was stupid enough not to talk in code though.

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Elison R. Salazar
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Apparently Wildstein's lawyer offered that he'll testify in exchange for immunity.
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Lyrhawn
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Geraine -

Christie and Rubio have a chance against Hillary.

I don't believe any of the others do.

Against Biden? I think Christie and Rubio win automatically and it's a dogfight with Ryan and Paul.

In no scenario is Ted Cruz a viable candidate. Frankly I don't think Rand Paul is either, because he's so much better on paper than he is in person, where he's an even bigger gaffe machine than Biden. Biden's gaffes are usually just embarrassing rather than providing evidence of his own naivete and stupidity.

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Elison R. Salazar
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I feel it would still be an uphill fight even against Biden, his 'gaffes' (accidentally saying something true) and his coming across as 'rude' to "Very Serious People" are his only downsides.

Heck, by virtue of being white he can afford to 'get angry' where Obama couldn't and not pull his punches. He'ld still get the nominally Democratic leaning Black vote, the Hispanic and asian votes are just if not more so democratic leaning now, and Biden would have the solid democratic platform of campaigning on the ACA and solving income inequality.

There is not currently a single Republican that as of now could reverse that trend and offer a solid alternative, not unless they elected to go full Single Payer, because whelp, They tried that before. Or actually for the whole 'minority outreach' thing down, which they have not been doing because Republican primary voters are actually surprisingly racist.

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Ron Lambert
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Biden is the comic relief of the current administration. Thank goodness he has no real power.

As for Christie, I would never vote for him for anything. But I do have to marvel at the hypocrisy of the liberal mainstream media for devoting more time to dissing Christie over Bridgegate, which is peanuts, than they ever did in the past year taking Obama to task for using the NSA and the IRS to get political payback against his conservative adversaries all over the country.

[ January 11, 2014, 02:46 PM: Message edited by: Ron Lambert ]

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MattP
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They spent weeks on the IRS thing. This has only been going on for a few days.
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Elison R. Salazar
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quote:
Originally posted by Ron Lambert:
Biden is the comic relief of the current administration. Thank goodness he has no real power.

As for Christie, I would never vote for him for anything. But I do have to marvel at the hypocrisy of the liberal mainstream media for devoting more time to dissing Christie over Bridgegate, which is peanuts, than they ever did in the past year taking Obama to task for using the NSA and the IRS to get political payback against his conservative adversaries all over the country.

False equivalence ahoy! Typical right wing misdirection tactics, "We're being criticised so lets find something THEY did!".

1) The IRS official was not Obama's "Right hand man" or someone who reported directly to the Oval Office.

2) Not sure which NSA story your referring to, probably not to the illegal use of drones to target American civilians in Yemen deemed to be 'terrorists', so your certainly exaggerating or making something up, 'again'.

3) Your actually wrong about Biden, he actually as the VP is quite active as a part of the Executive branch, not to Cheney's level thankfully, there was enough of that to last 10 administrations there. However notwithstanding your patently ridiculous assertions of Biden being 'comic relief' its quite clear he has an active role in the formulation of policy. For instance Robert Gates's book "Duty" I've heard mention Biden's role as "Skeptic-in-chief", this is a man who sits in on meetings and has a clear say and is actively involved in the decision making process.

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Rakeesh
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quote:
Originally posted by Ron Lambert:
Biden is the comic relief of the current administration. Thank goodness he has no real power.

As for Christie, I would never vote for him for anything. But I do have to marvel at the hypocrisy of the liberal mainstream media for devoting more time to dissing Christie over Bridgegate, which is peanuts, than they ever did in the past year taking Obama to task for using the NSA and the IRS to get political payback against his conservative adversaries all over the country.

If you think political targeting via the IRS is new (though it is news, and I wish we had more responsible safeguard sl against this sir of thing) then you're misinformed about the history of the IRS and politics.
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TomDavidson
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It's also worth noting that that particular interpretation of the IRS scandal -- that it was some sort of political targeting and/or payback -- is incorrect, verging on being a malicious falsehood.
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Rakeesh
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The idea that it was a grand federal scheme? Sure. That there was some...reduced committment to avoiding inhibiting or retaliating against political opponents, though. Well, that seemed quite clear to me, and it doesn't rely on the current administration being especially nefarious, either.
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Ron Lambert
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No wonder EVERYTHING gets past you liberals. You cannot see anything, nor grasp its real importance. You probably believe Obamacare is great and that Obama never tells any lies or does anything malicious or unamerican. You truly have the government people like you deserve. You probably will even think it is great when Obama invokes martial law and contrives a way to remain in power past 2016. He is truly your kind of president. The vast majority know your liberal political theories have never worked in all of human history, so you think it is proper to use force to compel everyone to accept your brainless policies. You are allowing a genuine tyrant to seize more and more power, and the most shameful thing is that you think that is good.
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MattP
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quote:
The vast majority know your liberal political theories have never worked in all of human history
The "vast majority" is not in agreement on pretty much anything. It's about 50/50 on any major issue you can think of, though on *most* issues, the polling swings a little in favor of the "liberal" (i.e. Democrat-advocated) position. But, since it's become a bit of a sport to get you to support any of your demonstrable and yet not demonstrated assertions of fact I'll go ahead and ask - on what specific policy do you believe a "vast majority" opposes a "liberal political theory" and what data do you use to substantiate that belief?

[ January 12, 2014, 12:37 AM: Message edited by: MattP ]

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TomDavidson
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quote:
You probably believe Obamacare is great and that Obama never tells any lies or does anything malicious or unamerican.
Dude, you're a Creationist.

quote:
You probably will even think it is great when Obama invokes martial law and contrives a way to remain in power past 2016.
You willing to put some money where your mouth is, Ron? I'll bet you $1000, straight up, at 10:1 odds, that this will not happen.
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Emreecheek
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quote:
No wonder EVERYTHING gets past you liberals. You cannot see anything, nor grasp its real importance. You probably believe Obamacare is great and that Obama never tells any lies or does anything malicious or unamerican. You truly have the government people like you deserve. You probably will even think it is great when Obama invokes martial law and contrives a way to remain in power past 2016. He is truly your kind of president. The vast majority know your liberal political theories have never worked in all of human history, so you think it is proper to use force to compel everyone to accept your brainless policies. You are allowing a genuine tyrant to seize more and more power, and the most shameful thing is that you think that is good.
I really want to save this for when one of my friends leaves their Facebook open.
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theamazeeaz
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I'm perfectly willing to admit that Obama and his administration have many faults, but I don't feel like I can have a rational conversation with people who seriously believe he was born in Kenya.
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Elison R. Salazar
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quote:
Originally posted by Ron Lambert:
No wonder EVERYTHING gets past you liberals. You cannot see anything, nor grasp its real importance. You probably believe Obamacare is great and that Obama never tells any lies or does anything malicious or unamerican. You truly have the government people like you deserve. You probably will even think it is great when Obama invokes martial law and contrives a way to remain in power past 2016. He is truly your kind of president. The vast majority know your liberal political theories have never worked in all of human history, so you think it is proper to use force to compel everyone to accept your brainless policies. You are allowing a genuine tyrant to seize more and more power, and the most shameful thing is that you think that is good.

Dude, I'm Canadian, our Conservatives are to the Left of your Democrats. Explain to me what 'Obamacare' is going to do that Canada hasn't already did but apparently not suffering for? Remember we have Universal Healthcare.

Lets take this apart though, lets deconstruct you piece by piece you miserable human being.

1. "You probably believe Obamacare is great"

False. Most 'liberals' and 'progressives' actually are NOT please at all with the PPACA, its a Conservative brainchild of the Heritage Foundation that has all sorts of issues built into it by lobbyists, such as religious whackjobs bitching about how now they have to pay their employees to do stuff with 'money' to do stuff they don't like. Single Payer would've completed side stepped this legal horseshit.

2. ' and that Obama never tells any lies', oh Obama has lied plenty, he's a politician, its what they do. But none of his lies, all put and packaged together come even remotely close to the LIE by George W. Bush to get America into an unprovoked war of aggression and commit crimes against humanity, war crimes and crimes against peace; by every precedent of the Nuremburg Trials GWB should be behind bars as well as every other major US official involved except for maybe Colin Powell. And not even remotely close to the lies Fox News, "Very Serious People" and the GOP tell everyday about the PPACA.

3. 'or does anything malicious or unamerican'

Of course he does, just not anything you'ld object to because you're a racist religious fanatic who thinks bombing brown muslims is A-OK.

4. You truly have the government people like you deserve.

No one except maybe the Germans or whoever else have Mixed-Member proportional have a duly elected government that represents them.

5. You probably will even think it is great when Obama invokes martial law and contrives a way to remain in power past 2016.

I don't have the money but I'ld fork up 100$ towards Tom's betting pool. Though personally I think having another President be like Lyndon Johnson or FDR would be great.

6. The vast majority know your liberal political theories have never worked in all of human history.

Now this is just stupid. America was founded on liberal principles, modern representative democracy is a liberal development, not conservative. In fact the GOP are 'reactionaries', working against the flow of history. Conservatives work to preserve institutions and believe the role of government is to govern, which would be respectable.

Conservatives were originally Monarchists.

Look at Europe ron, they seem to have functioning governments to me.

Since democracy is liberal and you hate liberals or think anything by liberals is bad, why do you hate democracy?

7. 'so you think it is proper to use force to compel everyone to accept your brainless policies.'

Seems like Romney lost with, what was it now? 47% of the vote?

I'm confused why you seem to think 'liberals' are the same thing as 'communists'. As I know it isn't that your mistaking one group for the other, you genuinely believe they are the same.

8. 'You are allowing a genuine tyrant to seize more and more power, and the most shameful thing is that you think that is good. '

Obama is not a tyrant anymore than any other US President has been, nor has he been 'seizing' more power, merely using what Congress it is complicity has allowed him to wield and legitimized as now part of the day to day tools of the executive.


Take it from me, I *am* a Communist and I am personally insulted you think the modern spineless cowards that is the Democratic Party are even remotely close.

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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by theamazeeaz:
I'm perfectly willing to admit that Obama and his administration have many faults, but I don't feel like I can have a rational conversation with people who seriously believe he was born in Kenya.

Word.
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Ron Lambert
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Predictable, and typically thoughtless responses. How can you people be intelligent enough to read science fiction--or do you?
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theamazeeaz
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I'm never been formally trained in debate, but as I understand it, insulting your debaters while ignoring the actual content of what they said is a logical fallacy and doesn't count as refuting their argument. In fact, that is the mark of someone who is unintelligent.

Would you care to counteract to my post in a way the addresses the actual point I've made-- that someone who believes Obama was born in Kenya has consumed so much biased media that they do not distinguish among the bad things Obama has been accused of and decide which are true, which are true from the point of view of the opposition's value's system, and which are hallmarks of a lunatic fringe that are out of touch with reality. The Kenyan thing belongs to the latter category.

In my point of view, Ellison did a fantastic job responding to you. Not because his responses are correct (though I agree with many of them), but because he took each sentence that you wrote and addressed it directly.

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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by Ron Lambert:
You probably will even think it is great when Obama invokes martial law and contrives a way to remain in power past 2016.

And here we have another example of the Ron Lambert Prediction:

1. Ron will predict something that is pretty much almost assuredly not going to happen, like that Obama will be impeached with the help of Democrats.

2. Before the timeframe in which it is supposedly going to happen, Ron will be mostly or even completely certain it is going to happen and will aggressively and tiresomely insult and degrade people who fail to see how 'clear' his truth obviously is.

3. It won't happen.

4. When it doesn't happen, Ron will literally just forget that he made the prediction, because he cannot reconcile the truth of his actual prediction track record against his self-image need to believe that he sees the truth. He will reframe the prediction in his mind and make it something that is at least technically correct, and firmly argue he never made the original prediction at all.

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Samprimary
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quote:
Since democracy is liberal and you hate liberals or think anything by liberals is bad, why do you hate democracy?
this actually makes no sense
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Jon Boy
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And let's not forget that people have been saying that Obama was going to destroy the Constitution, turn the country into a fascist/socialist/communist/atheist/Muslim dictatorship, create a Gestapo, and use it to round up his opponents and put them in death camps for over six years now. As far as I can tell, he hasn't done a single one of those yet.

Worst.

President.

Ever.

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Elison R. Salazar
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quote:
Originally posted by Samprimary:
quote:
Since democracy is liberal and you hate liberals or think anything by liberals is bad, why do you hate democracy?
this actually makes no sense
That's kind of the point.

quote:
Originally posted by Ron Lambert:
Predictable, and typically thoughtless responses. How can you people be intelligent enough to read science fiction--or do you?

The same fiction that supposed a Authoritarian government that restricted the number of children per family was actually necessary to save humanity, exempted the one family where classical notions of eugenics would result in the third child just being sufficiently ruthless but not as ruthless middle ground of the other two children?
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Samprimary
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the thing is is that it doesn't make sense in a way you did not intend. using the definition that we are all using (hopefully) democracy is neither liberal nor conservative, as both brands of political thought in this day and age are effectively democratic.
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