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Author Topic: Autism & Vaccinations: How Conclusive is the non-Link?
Dagonee
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Article in the post today about a British doctor who's staking his career on the link between the MMR vaccine and autism. I know there have been studies about this that say there's no link, but it's near impossible to evaluate those studies from the popular media. My understanding is they're pretty much as conclusive as can be when trying to prove a negative.

The article is here.

One thing the article didn't seem to mention is the number of children who can't take vaccines that are put at risk by an increased number of non-vaccinated children. I've heard it mentioned before in articles about the vaccination drives in DC. Is this a serious problem? How many children can't take vaccines, and what are some of the causes?

Thoughts from Hatrack's more medically capable?

Dagonee

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Dagonee
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Thanks, CT. Buying the house and getting ready for the wedding has made me think more about things like this.

I look forward to any light you can shed on the topic.

Dagonee

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Dagonee
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That's the part the lawyer-me seized on immediately. I know I could make hash of him on the stand without any additional scientific knowledge.

I've been hearing about this scare for a few years now, and I think the media has portrayed it mostly as an even split in the medical community, which seems to be patently untrue. It's "equal time" gone awry. That's starting to change now.

I think it's the appeal of big pharma/government conspiracy theories that led to the widespread acceptance of the story, plus the human need to make bad things be somebody's fault.

Dagonee

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Dagonee
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Absolutely. As soon as I pass the bar, my skills will be at your disposal.

And don't tell Stephen, but he's actually gotten me to look into changing focus to disability advocacy. I don't think I'll do it, mainly because I can do some good in this area as a prosecutor if I play the game well enough. But he's made me think about it, which is saying something.

Dagonee

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TMedina
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One of my night-shift supervisors at GSU firmly believed that immunizations actually served no viable purpose.

He pointed to bell curve studies tracing the rate of infection between immunized and non-immunized children - the graph showed a spike during the innoculation period but then dropped to the standard curve found in non-immunized children.

As I am neither a parent nor a scientific mind, I'm just going to toss this into the fray for better minds than mine to worry on. Worry as in chew, tear and otherwise gnaw.

-Trevor

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Dagonee
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Vaccinations are a classic games-theory problem. The more other people get vaccinated, the less risk an unvaccinated person faces. But if too many don't get vaccinated, then the risk goes up for each unvaccinated person. There's also the increased risk of mutations which render old vaccines ineffective if the disease population isn't kept down with vaccinations. Doubling the number of unvaccinated people more than doubles the number of cases.

Medicine faces almost the same problem with anti-biotic resistance, except there it's caused by over-use of medicine. One person receiving unneeded antibiotics doesn't hurt anyone (barring allergies or bad reactions). 200,000 people receiving them does.

These problems crop up in many fields, and stem from the psychology of small individual risks not being recognized as potentially large risks in aggregate populations.

There's also the fact that not getting vaccinated endangers people who can't get vaccinated for whatever reason. I don't know how many such people there are, but I know the numbers aren't trivial. Many people aren't aware that they're risking more than there own child's life by refusing vaccines.

Dagonee

[ July 11, 2004, 12:54 PM: Message edited by: Dagonee ]

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Ela
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quote:
Also a lack of understanding of the difference between causation and correlation. The lack of developmental progress (as well as the "positive" signs of diagnoses along the autistic spectrum) become apparent at the same time as vaccines are scheduled to be given. So, for example, is changing the car seat, and a similar correlation between the timing of development of autism and switching car seats can be shown.
This is exactly what has always bothered me about the claim that vaccines cause autism. I have read a great deal over the years, both mainstream and from alternative medicine and anti-vaccine groups. I am inclined to believe the findings that there is not a definitive cause and effect going on between vaccines and autism.
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TMedina
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Fair enough Claudia.

In his defense, I will point out this conversation happened at 03:30, during a lull in the mid-term rush so I may be garbling the gist of the message.

As I say, I don't have enough expertise or knowledge to debate it either way.

-Trevor

Ela - so we don't know the causes of autism and as such, the vaccine theory cannot provide a sustainable claim of a direct link between one and the other?

[ July 11, 2004, 12:56 PM: Message edited by: TMedina ]

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Dagonee
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Ooh, good point. I've never seen coverage of that aspect of the issue in the general media, and it's so obvious once pointed out. It's always stuff about resistant staph in hospitals and such on the "news."

So I can add medicine to the list of things the media butchers coverage on.

Dagonee

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TMedina
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Bah, if it bleeds, it leads. "Fair and balanced" reporting doesn't fit into the 6 o'clock newsbite.

And a total aside - I've always hated the term "practicing physician." Shouldn't you get it right before you play doctor? [Taunt]

Of course, I build that premise into my "practicing hedonist" joke.

-Trevor

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rivka
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In my experience -- both as a science teacher and chatting with other moms I know IRL -- the difference between causality and correlation is COMPLETELY lost on far too many people. (CT, I love that bit about there being a similar correlation with car seats! I am so using that the next time someone tries to convince me that vaccines are evil.)

I have a friend who is convinced that the placenta previa she had with child #3 was caused by using an OTC yeast treatment. [Wall Bash] (After all, she had not used one during her earlier (or later) pregnancies, and she didn't have that problem with them. Besides, the problem showed up two weeks after she used the medication.) And she is quite intelligent. [Dont Know]

I resent the fact that my (thoroughly vaccinated) kids are more at risk for disease (since no vaccine is 100% effective, and some are as low as 90%) because some of their peers are not vaccinated. OTOH, I don't see that there's much I can do about it.

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romanylass
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When my 7 year old was in infant, I read extensively on both sides of the issue. I decided at that time to delay vaccinations until 2 years of age. When he got the first round of shots at age 2, he became violently ill and remained so for three days. The doctors office refused to acknowledge that it even might be related to the vaccine. Back to the research, and I eventually decided against vaccinating at all.
I think it is commom to assume that non-vaccinating parents are working with too little information, or only biased information, and moreover that they thing all vaccines are evil. That is not always true- I made a well thought out, well informed decision that I feel was right for *my* family.

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aspectre
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I'd suspect the "violently ill " response was caused by an allergic reaction to the serum (carrying liquid) more than by any reaction to the vaccine itself.

I've always wondered why nowadays -- when purification of active ingredients is relatively simple -- the medical industry still insists on injecting folks with horse plasma, duck eggs, etc instead of using eg a saline solution as the carrier.

What the heck, it ain't as if they don't know that people react (sometimes very strongly) to alien proteins injected into the blood stream.

[ July 11, 2004, 06:42 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]

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AmkaProblemka
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This well thought out decision was also based on the fact that your children are depending on other parents to vaccinate their children, yes?

If your child has a history of allergic reactions or is immuno-depressed, I understand.

Otherwise, it is a little irritating to me to vaccinate my child and know that other parents are relying on my own minutely risky, overwhelmingly responsible decision to protect their children. Kind of like the soldier who holds back just a little so the other soldiers will run into the brunt of the battle.

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Dagonee
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CT, thanks for all the info so far. I'm looking forward to reading more.

Dagonee

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rivka
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Amka, exactly!

And it's not that my kids never had reactions to their shots -- they did. Never severe enough for a doctor's visit, but once bad enough to warrant a call to the doctor's office.

But I've heard enough from my mom to know that their reactions were not even comparable to actual bouts with measles or mumps. And my mom remembers a classmate in kindergarten dying of polio. [Frown] Heck, I remember the misery of chicken pox, and was thrilled to be able to vaccinate my kids against it. And while one did have the pseudo-pox reaction, it was SO much milder than the real thing.

I also wonder at how knowledgeable a parent could be if all vaccines (some of which occasionally cause reactions to the vaccine itself, some of which can cause allergic reactions to the carrier or growth medium, and some of which almost never cause ANY reaction) are seen as equal.

My nephew (who goes to the same pediatric group as my kids) had a severe reaction to DTP (back before it was DTaP). So he never got that one again -- but he had all his other vaccinations. If I had a pediatrician who was ignoring my concerns about a vaccination, I'd consider switching doctors. Not decide that my kids didn't need one of the things that saves more lives per year per dollar than just about any other medical treatment I can name.

Somehow, I think that if a trip to an area where the majority of kids are NOT vaccinated was in the future, a lot of parents who choose not to vaccinate their kids might rethink their position.

[ July 11, 2004, 10:52 PM: Message edited by: rivka ]

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Space Opera
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I strongly believe that all children should be vaccinated, but I'm very interested to hear the parents' reasonings for not having it done. My children also had slight reactions to their shots, but like rivka, I figured that was better than getting the mumps, etc. My daughter had to have DT instead of DTP b/c pertussis (sp?) supposedly can sometimes cause problems for kids with epilepsy. What do parents who don't vaccinate their kids do when it's time for school? I thought all kids had to have them in order to be admitted.

space opera

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rivka
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Schools are legally required (and I think this is federal law, but maybe it's CA law?) to allow parents to sign a form that says that they have knowingly (for religious, medical, or whatever reasons) opted NOT to immunize their kids.
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Suneun
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A friend of mine from college has never had a single vaccination. He and his family are Christian Scientists. I'm sure Brown gave him special permission to opt out of the required vaccinations. He has never been sick, as long as I've known him (~6 years). He does brush his teeth very well, and is very clean, but practices no other medicine-style care. He carries a card that declines medical help, and all his friends know that he'd rather they not call an ambulance or doctor if he's ever hurt.
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WasabiTurtle
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Yeah, Suneun, but that's because he has an aura of being really sketchy so that the germs don't even have a shot of getting in there. [Big Grin]

Here's my take, and I am by trade a neuroscientist, so it's a decently informed take: There is no one cause of autism thus far. Even people who have been doing this for decades, such as Marcel Kinsbourne and Helen Tager-Flusberg, don't agree. The concept of regression, that a normal child loses language and turns autistic after a vaccination, is not well held, though. Vaccinations come at a time of developmental milestones, when simple babbling turns into complex wording and interaction with the environment goes from passive to active. Some of us think that an autistic child is initially capable of simple tasks, but when the changeover to more frontal, more adult actions is necessitated, the autistic brain isn't capable. Does this make sense? I can explain it better but I'm being a little sketchy so as not to drown people on my first foray.

There is a decent amount of evidence to suggest that autism is present earlier rather than later. People can often look back at first birthday party videos and note that the child is not interacting correctly. My nephew, who has Asperger's, was "strange" from the get-go. This "strangeness" merely becomes more pronounced when social demands are placed later in life. This is not to say that allergic reactions to the vaccine, as proposed by Kinsbourne among others, aren't a cause of autism. They are just not the primary cause. For me, it's genetics from day one, a bad roll of the dice, so to speak.

I want to leave with a final thought... There was recently an outbreak of polio in Nigeria, in the regions that refused vaccinations because they were supposedly part of a (zionist) plot to sterilize Muslims. Meanwhile, the Midwest has been hit with whooping cough and the UK is facing a measles in record numbers. Are the consequences of not vaccinating outweighed by the costs of vaccinating, or vice-versa? I think those diseases are more terrible than autism, with the potential to do greater widespread and long-term damage than autism.

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Derrell
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CT, does this mean Christy's finally having the baby? *crosses fingers* You will keep us informed, right?
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pooka
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My own belief on autism is that it is a genetic vulnerability, that can be activated by stressors particularly during the early development years. My sister, who has a daughter with autism, is currently touting the theory that fevers in particular can be implicated. Vaccinations cause fevers, of course, but so would the underlying illnesses as well as a variety of other bugs.

I waited until kindergarten to get my oldest immunized. But once I had other kids I couldn't concentrate all my anxiety into that one issue. I just thought I'd mention that I wasn't offered any religious/philosophical opt-out on the vaccinations. It was definitly "my way or the highway". I guess if I got pushy about it, who knows what would have happened. But I think the approach generally is to bully people who are disinclined to vaccinate, both on the part of schools and healthcare providers.

I understand epidemiologic medicine has different ethics. It is not "first do no harm". It is "sacrifice a few to raise the chances for everyone else."

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rivka
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pooka, I don't think schools have the obligation to OFFER the alternative. Simply to accept it if a knowledgeable (and pushy [Wink] ) parent demands it.

As I said, maybe it's CA law -- or maybe the schools I'm familiar with just caved. [Dont Know]

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romanylass
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quote:
This well thought out decision was also based on the fact that your children are depending on other parents to vaccinate their children, yes?

No, actually. I am relying on my ability to boost their immunity, limit potential exposures and treat appropriatley.
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romanylass
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quote:
I understand epidemiologic medicine has different ethics. It is not "first do no harm". It is "sacrifice a few to raise the chances for everyone else."
I find this to be irritratingly true, and is at the crux of why I don't vax. I am not willing to risk a potentially fatal vaccine reaction in my kids for any other person.
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pooka
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I can kind of see you point, romy, but even though my kids aren't in daycare we do go to church and visit with other people from time to time.

And I do think some exposure to other people is as important to the immune system as good nutrition and rest and all that. Both for the germ resistance and for social benefits.

In the end I just say a prayer and hold my breath. If something did happen to one of my kids, I guess I would have to turn into one nasty extremo-disestablishmentarian.

[ July 12, 2004, 05:37 PM: Message edited by: pooka ]

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romanylass
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This is a long list of peer reviewed article linking vaccines and convulsions and neurological damage:

http://www.thinktwice.com/s_neuro.htm

A short article linking the chicken pox vaccine with increased cases of shingles
:
quote:
uk.news.yahoo.com/020502/80/cy5c0.htmlThursday May 2, 04:27 PMDeath risk from chickenpox jabBy Richard WoodmanLONDON (Reuters) - Vaccinating children against chickenpox could cause millions of adults to develop shingles, according to scientists.A team at the Public Health Laboratory Service said on Thursday that although vaccination would save thousands of children's lives, just as many adults could die from the complications of shingles.After a bout of chickenpox, the varicella zoster virus remains dormant in the body and may reactivate decades later to cause shingles, a painful rash that typically strikes chickenpox veterans after the age of 60.Marc Brisson and his team say their research shows that adults living with children have more exposure to the virus and enjoy high levels of protection against shingles.Being close to children means that adults keep being exposed to the virus, which acts like a booster vaccine against shingles, they believe.But if all children were vaccinated, adults who have had chickenpox would no longer be protected against developing shingles.Writing in the journal Vaccine, they called for a re-evaluation of the policy of mass chickenpox vaccination that has been introduced already in the United States and is imminent in many other countries.The researchers worked out a mathematical model which predicts that eliminating chickenpox in a country the size of the United States would prevent 186 million cases of the disease and 5,000 deaths over 50 years.However they said it could also result in 21 million more cases of shingles and, again, 5,000 deaths.The PHLS said in a statement it was working out what the impact might be of introducing a chickenpox vaccine in Britain."As more evidence becomes available, it will be shared with the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) which advises the Department of Health on the immunisation schedule."

Will post more later, have to make a bunch of phone calls now.
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romanylass
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Oh, we interact with people too, church, playdates, ect for all the reasons mentioned. But we do avoid daycare and public schools.
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Space Opera
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I don't understand the remark about public schools. Do people think that private schools have less germs? Perhaps I've just misunderstood the context.

space opera

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pooka
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I used to consider homeschooling, but my husband fears I would loose my already tenuous grasp of reality if we did that. Or something.
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rivka
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My kids attend private schools for religious reasons. As far as I can tell, just as likely to be exposed to germs there -- and possibly MORE likely to be exposed to unvaccinated kids. (See my comment in a previous post.)
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TMedina
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Public schools are attended because you are required - not because the parents or children are motivated or putting forth additional effort.

So students in private schools are enrolled and have a desire to attend, or at least have parents who desire the children to attend.

So, hypothetically, the students in private schools are more likely to be immunized because of motivated parents than parents in public schools.

Strictly conjecture, granted - but private schools traditionally have smaller numbers and more resources to handle those smaller numbers whereas public schools tend to be more heavily burdened with fewer resources per student.

-Trevor

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rivka
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Trevor, I agree with paragraphs one, two, and four. Three is an incredible stretch.
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Dagonee
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quote:
but private schools traditionally have smaller numbers and more resources to handle those smaller numbers
This is a stretch, too, at least with Catholic parochial schools, and if you mean financial resources. Of course, one of the reasons they generally have more success with less money per pupil is that they have other, non-worldly resources to call on. [Big Grin]

Dagonee

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ctm
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You know, we had a neighbor whose first born seemed to be different right from birth-- especially because he wouldn't look at faces as much as a normal baby. My mom, a public health nurse who worked with babies a lot, used to wonder if he was autistic. Later he had a severe reaction to the MMR vaccine. They moved away, and I don't know if he was ever diagnosed as autistic, but I've often wondered if, rather than vaccines causing autism, kids with autism are more likely to have adverse reactions to vaccines? I've never seen any research addressing this, so I suppose there is no link, but I've always wondered...
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Wendybird
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As a parent I am concerned about the current "schedule" of immunizations. When we are injecting so many at once it is hard to figure out which one the child is actually reacting to. As a new mom, I didn't give it any thought and immunized my oldest two "on schedule". As an older mom with my third, I did a lot of reading and prayer (some may roll their eyes at this but its a personal thing). I really felt that the current push to immunize by two was concerning. I can't find it now, but I know I read about studies that talked about how Japan used to immunize by two and their SIDS rate when up. When they went back to immunizing starting at age 2 their SIDS rate went down. I personally felt it was better to wait and started with the DTP at age 2. Two doses later we are okay but I'm not rushing it. I also have great concerns about the chemicals and heavy metals and foreign substances that the vaccinations are made in. Some utilize aborted fetus tissue to grow the culture in. Those things greatly concern me.
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romanylass
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Ooops- perhaps I should have been more clear at the start, and said I am homeschooling, not private schooling. While they aren't raised in a bubble, most of the of the families I know tend to keep sick kids home.(Where I have found, when parents rely on school, public or private, for childcare, some tend to dose up sick kids and send them) Most of the families we do playdates with are non-vaccinated or only partially vax.

CT, I know most of those articles are dated, but I have mostly researched in print form. My large burst of research was done when my 7 year old was an infant and toddler, and I have mostly kept up with alternative magazine. (Mothering, for example). Of course that could be called biased, but don't most of us, once we have made our minds up about something, tend to stick to our bias?

I have read some of these, but as I said, that was years ago and at this point I would be hard pressed to remember which.

ctm, my daughter is one of those kids that has seemed twitchy since birth ( not autistic, but digestive problems, ADHD, pica) and I would be most afraid of her having a severe vaccine reaction. Heck, she reacts to multi vitamins! I feel I just can't take chances with her especially.

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Dagonee
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I already like it:

quote:
Oscillococcinum, a 200C product "for the relief of colds and flu-like symptoms," involves "dilutions" that are even more far-fetched. Its "active ingredient" is prepared by incubating small amounts of a freshly killed duck's liver and heart for 40 days. The resultant solution is then filtered, freeze-dried, rehydrated, repeatedly diluted, and impregnated into sugar granules. If a single molecule of the duck's heart or liver were to survive the dilution, its concentration would be 1 in Edit: (100^200). This huge number, which has 400 zeroes, is vastly greater than the estimated number of molecules in the universe (about one googol, which is a 1 followed by 100 zeroes). In its February 17, 1997, issue, U.S. News & World Report noted that only one duck per year is needed to manufacture the product, which had total sales of $20 million in 1996. The magazine dubbed that unlucky bird "the $20-million duck."
And CT, I didn't mean to give anyone homework. [Smile] But I am grateful for the info.

Dagonee

[ July 14, 2004, 08:15 AM: Message edited by: Dagonee ]

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rivka
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quote:
The magazine dubbed that unlucky bird "the $20-million duck."
[ROFL]
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Kwea
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What exactly is Aspergers syndrome? I know it is a type of autism, I believe that it represents a "functioning autistic", as opposed to those who are completely withdrawn.

My cousin has autism, and if I am right about the definition then he has Aspergers syndrome.

Obviously, this thread hits home for me a bit more than some others do.

Kwea

[ July 18, 2004, 01:58 AM: Message edited by: Kwea ]

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rivka
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What is Asperger's Disorder?
More
In medicalese

Asperger's is actually distinct from autism in several ways, although it is sometimes referred to as "high-functioning autism," and is on the same continuum.

My son is being tested right now (over the course of a couple months) for a bunch of things -- Asperger's is one of several possibilities that was mentioned. I guess we'll see in a few weeks when the testing is complete. [Dont Know]

[ July 18, 2004, 02:11 AM: Message edited by: rivka ]

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rivka
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Thanks, CT. He's actually already doing much better than he was 6 months ago -- different school (well, he's in camp now) and a good therapist. But yeah, it will be good to have a better idea of what we're dealing with instead of, "Well, it might be X, or possibly Y. And maybe a little Z . . ."

I'm learning new words, though. Never heard of a psychometrist before recently. [Smile]

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rivka
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Yes, I knew that. [Smile] Having two brothers with ADD, one of whom was later diagnosed as bipolar -- yeah, diagnosis is a useful tool, but not the Answer to Everything. [Wink] Better than limbo, though, I'm hoping.

And I don't think I agree with your first sentence. Having to know the in-and-outs may imply sad things. But knowledge is a good thing, IMO. And somewhat reassuring.

Knowing what Asperger's was (in general terms, and because of Hatrack, natch) before it was ever mentioned as a potential issue with my son, helped me be more calm and accepting of the possibility. (Note: I said more calm. The gibbering idiot running around screaming inside my skull at the mention of the possibility was still there; I just managed to keep him mostly internal.)

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rivka
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You are, and you do. (((((CT)))))
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TMedina
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Wendy - some of us don't believe in prayer, some of us do.

Never feel like you have to justify what you believe in because people on this board may or may not share those or similar beliefs.

However, I do wish you the best for your children.

-Trevor

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rivka
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That is a wonderful way to put it! CT, may I borrow that to hand out to my students?

[ July 18, 2004, 03:04 PM: Message edited by: rivka ]

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rivka
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This is great stuff, CT. [Smile]

I just have to interject (sorry, but I really have to [Big Grin] ) that I suspect, given the average ambient temperatures in Antarctica, that wearing flip-flops will affect ALL aspects of such a group's health. [Wink]

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rivka
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*notices post count*

*wonders which of today's posts was the roll-over*

*avoids mentioning CT's post count* [Wink]

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rivka
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Actually, I think I will leave in the Antarctica bit in the version I give my students. See if they notice it. [Evil]

This is totally going to be the first extra-credit reading of the year. Thanks! [Smile]

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romanylass
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Why am I skeptical about vaccination programs? (Is that the question CT?)

Of course, in addition to the researches I have read (which may, of course, be biased one way or the other, I have several issues.

One is that I believe too much medical intervention can harm the body as much as, or more than, too little. I do seek medical care when appropriate, which I admit we would do less often than the average mainstream parent. OTOH, my boys have been exceedingly healthy, and the issues we have had with Olivia do not seem to be they kinds one "catches". I have a 7, 5, and 2 year old and have only faced one ear infection! (Matthew, when he was 9 months old.) Even when I seek medical advice, I will evaluate it before going forward (Two examples- Olivia got an infected toe, and the doc prescribed oral Keflex. We decided giving a yeast prone child systemic antibiotics for her toe was not a good idea, and put in place a rigourous plan of washing, putting on neosporin, and then keeping it bandaged and dry, and it healed in 5 days. Two, the ER doc rx'd Tylonol with codeine for Matthew's arm, and we were just not comfortable giving him narcotics for something so minor). So, to bring this back to vaccines, I don't wish to load their systems with the additives and preservatives in vaccines for a disease that they may never be exposed to and if they are, they would most probably not have any lasting effects from.
I beleive the healthiest thing is to keep the child's immune system healthy and practice excellent hygiene, and seek medical treatment when they do get seek.

I also have an ethics issue with the way vaccines are presented. Most parents are kept well in the dark about exemptions, and are told they have have their child vaxed for XYZ, even where they have a legal right to claim an exemption. I do think most parents have chosen to view medical experts as having authority over them, perhaps because that takes a lot of research and decision making out of their own hands. That is their decision.I have chosen to be questioning, and take the decision making into my own hands. In my observances, parents who do that tend to make less then mainstream decisions, whether that is to treat ADHD with diet rather than drugs, to vax partially or not at all, or to birth at home (giving examples form my own life).
Umm, I went off on a rabbit trail there. I wanted to adress the concept that parents should feel obligated (often pressured) to vax their kids for the sake of public health. I think taking care of the puiblic health is essential, and I would hate to see sanitation suffer, for universal precautions to be dropped, etc. ( I could get into the interests of big business vs public heatlth, but that's awhole 'nother post). But when it gets down to injecting my children with something that *I* feel could do more damage than good, for the good of other people, I say that is a step too far and my first priority is to protect my children. Just liek I have chosen, somewhat against the grain, to protect them from pesticides, food additives and tobacco smoke.

So there are my thoughts for the moment, I *do* plan to look for more recent research, but those are the non-scientific aspects that inform my decisions.

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