posted
Well I'm not going to do a Cousin Hobbes, but right now I'm trying to figure out who I'm rooting for more. Stormy's story will be over in two days, while I still have time to savor the anticipation of the Tour.
I don't follow cycling all year round only in the couple months leading up to Le Tour de France. I do follow the Tour regardless of whether an American has a chance of winning.
They have some good quality riders, including Igor Gonzales de Galdeano but the question is will this team have enough depth to match USPS. One person can make all the difference and Heras has always been thought to be the person who would take up the Tour mantle once Lance retires. Heras was picked to lead USPS after this next tour, but since USPS will dissolve after this year, it was good timing for him to leave now. I like the guy despite myself, and will be rooting for him somewhat.
Lance is already a legend, if he can hold of Heras and Ulrich for one more year, he will make history. I think Heras will challenge him more than Ulrich though. Heras can climb and sprint with the best of them, has worn the yellow jersey and knows Lance's mental game better than almost anyone else.
It should be an exciting race. Lance struggled more last year to win than almost any previous year IMO. Was it just a fluke of bad health or is age catching up? Cycling carreers last longer than those in many other sports but age still makes a difference.
Christian Vandevelde from USPS also went to them. Gonzalez-De Galdeono's older brother is also on the team. But they are both aging. You can compare their UCI rankings for 2003 with USPS and see what you think for yourself.
posted
Lance is going to win. I think last year was a fluke, or at least mostly a fluke. Loosing that much water in one time trial when your at his level of training is not due to getting one year older, it's due to a werid fluke. This year Lance has focused entirly on the tour, no other races involved (he races them, but only in preperation for the Tour de France). Also, I've been watching The Lance Chronicles and Road to the Tour on OLN and everyone seems to think that he's going as strong as they've ever seen him. He won the tour of Georgia and he wasn't even trying to. He has an entire team built around him, he's going to win.
I'm surprised you picked Heras as the main challenger, he has no chance. Sure he can climb but Armstrong can take minutes off him in the time trial. Maybe with some more training he'll be tour leader caliber but right now he is a specialist and he just plain wont have a chance, not to mention the fact that his team, while not the weakest ever, just doesn't compare to USPS (even now that he's gone).
For competitors I'm putting my money on Hamilton. He came in 4th last year with a broken collar bone from stage one. He's all around good and still young enough that he should be better this year than last. He has a solid team and an amazing team leader. The break-away on the non-mountain stage at the end of last year's tour was beyond inspired, he's the only one I personally think can challenge Armstrong all the way to the finish.
Other big competitors: 1) Ulrich as always, however I don't think he'll be the threat he was last year. He hasn't been doing that well this season. When he was a threat last year he came into the tour completely trained and ready for the first time (normally, since the tour wears you out, people come in just a little below ideal phsycial training and build up in the begining). This year he's gone back to starting out of shape. His team is strong but there's three potential leaders on it and I just can't see that non being a problem.
2) Mayo, personally I don't think he's that likely because, like Herras, he's a specialist. But his time trials last year weren't *that* bad and he sure can climb. Certainly the big hope for the Basques, I'd watch out for at least a stage win on the mountains from Mayo.
3) Cunego, with the teamate of Simoni taking the Giro despite himself I'm going to be excited to see how he does in the Tour. I don't really expect him to finish that high, but he was riding for someone else when he took the Giro, I'm not going to rule him out.
4) Beloki, he was a big threat last year, it sounds like he's pretty much just never been the same since that crash on stage 9 (it was 9 right?) but he at least was the peak of cycling riders last year so I feel obligated to include him.
posted
Going by overall ranking is kind of a werid way to rank a team. For instance, Pettachi's team (I have no clue how to spell Allesandro's name btw, but you know who I'm talking about) needs lead out guys and some people take long turns at the front of the peleton to bring back in break aways. These people would be far more useful to him than Lance Armstrong, but they're ranking would be abysimal becuase what they do best will not help them win races, it will help their teamates win races.
USPS has every base covered, and with their replacment of Herras they've still got strength in the mountains, and I think their team time trial will blow everyone else away just like last year.
posted
I'm not saying Herras's team isn't good, but USPS has been built up for years as the top team and made entirley to support one man. No one else in the tour has this advantage, even T-Mobile's powerhouse doesn't have the depth and range of skill you can find on USPS.
posted
I think Heras can quite possibly break Lance in the mountains, like Ulrich never could. If he can, then I think he will have enough of a lead that the time trials won't be as significant.
And as team leader Heras can focus more on his one weakness to improve.
I know that there are different kind of specialists for different areas, but I don't follow cycling THAT closely to know who is which. Generally a lower ranked guy will be a specialist in at least ONE area which is why I went with overall rankings for last year.
Victor Hugo Pena could also mount a significant challenge, but we don't have to worry about him since he is still on USPS.
Who do you see as the significant threat? Tyler Hamilton might do better this year if he stays injury free, but I don't think he's got the raw climbing talent of Heras, even if he did put in a spectacular performance last year with the broken collarbone. Tyler is better at the time trials.
I don't think Ulrich has what it takes, just don't. Who else is there?
Typically it takes one or two breaks in the mountains and good time trials to win, as well as having no bad days.
Reasons I don't think Herras has what it takes: 1) The team time trial. I'm not sure how he's fixed for long term lead out guys, but it was a miracle he kept up with the USPS team time trial last year and he spent the entire time at the back. Even his leaders match the USPS time trialers he's still missing one of the biggest factors in last year's USPS victory: Armstrong. Almost all real competitors in the Tour will take long turns at the front in the TTT and Herras will at best be a non-factor in his, he can't contribute, and USPS will gain minutes on him then.
2) Individual time trials. There are two individual time trials every year. This year is especially interesting in that one of them is flat (like normal) and one is up the massive Alp d'Huez climb. On the flat Armstrong can take big minutes of Herras even if he does train for it. On Alp d'Huez Herras gets a boast for it being a mountain stage, but Armstrong get's a comparable one for his incredible training that he's already doing and done on it, which can make a big difference in mountain stages. He's spent days and days there, he claims going up the thing 4 times in one day. Which leads to:
3) Training. No one trains like Armstrong does, and this year he's training harder. No other races, no other distractions. he's focusing entirley on the Tour, and his body should peak right at it. Herras has to race, he has a team to support and can't afford the type of training Armstrong is doing. Lance will out train him pure and simple.
Herras has to win multiple mountain stages, and win them by a lot to make up for his other defficiancies, and I just plain don't think he can. Remember last year he would lead out Armstrong (a weaker than normal Armstrong) for a while but he could never keep it up. It's true, he was leading out and Armstrong was following, but also remember that almost every day they kept Herras behind Armstrong all the way to the last climb, he was as rested as Lance when the last big mountain would come. Even if he is a stronger climber than Armstrong (which I'm not convinced of) he's not that much stronger. And wining the mountain stages isn't just about strength, you have to have a very good acceleration off the front of the pack and do that for around 10 to 15 to minutes if you plan on making a few minutes break. And no one has the mountain acceleration that Lance does.
posted
Alexandre Vinokorov was kind of the wild card last year in the top 3. He wasn't even the picked team leader. Do you think he's got a shot at anything this year?
posted
re your point 3) I know he is putting in the appearance of focusing for the tour, but I don't know if he is. I know you get used to cameras eventually but I think the constant taping might get old. Also, he's got a new gf. Now that could swing things either way as far as focus goes. But, it could be a distraction even if he doesn't realize it especially since she is at least as big of a celeb as he is.
I never liked his ex-wife much to begin with. Partially because she was out gallavanting around Europe during the Tour rather than sweating out each stage with him according to her diaries in 2000. I mean there are times for gallivanting but during Le Tour isn't it. If you want to sightsee during the Giro or Tour de Suisse that's fine!
posted
Well I can tell you the answer to that right now: not a chance.
He's now on T-mobile: Ulrich's team. Plus, there's another leader on there with those (two one whose name escapes me). He's one of the reasons I don't think Ulrich will win (one of the many reasons), T-mobile is top heavy.
And even if they do work together well, they'll be working for Ulrich.
posted
He's putting in appearence and he's doing it well. He's winning races he's not even trying to win, and every commentator (and myself) think he looks great. He's out training hard every day, Crow or no.
As for the rest of the response, I have one word for you: Jeleous!
Whoops I totally missed Ulrich on the list! duh. Yeah I think they are too top heavy as well. Zabel puts them into play in the sprinters competition but that totally messes with team standings.
I think Tyler's team is halfway in between USPS and T-moble in terms of how top heavy they are. They have Oscar Sevilla too as well as other notables.
Heras' team is surprisingly strong, considering they are so young. I say he will still make it into the top 7 or so.
The finish I would like to see: 1)Lance 2)Tyler 3)Heras
The finish that I think is more probable is 1)lance 2)tyler 3) Ullrich Probably also more probably than Heras finishing third is 1)Tyler 2) Lance 3) Ulrich. I think I remember hearing that Ulrich has never finished worst than 2nd in any Tour he's been in. I want him 3rd this year damnit!
posted
If you're going to get your wish any year, this will be the one. Ulrich isn't training like he did last year and it's showing as much as ever. My bet would be Tyler in second place.
And now I'm niether working nor doing the Tyler vs. Armstrong comparison.
If I had to sum it up one sentance this would be it: "Tyler Hamilton is Armstrong's mini-me".
Hamilton is a good all around biker, time-trialing, flats, climbing, he can do it all, and do it all well.
Hamilton used to be on USPS, working for Armstrong, when he left, they remained (reamain) good friends (he didn't leave like a thief in the night as Herras did). He left because he felt he had a chance at personal victory, and everyone agreed.
His first really, really major race was the Giro d'talia (The Tour of Italy), and everyone was excited to see how he did. He broke his shoulder blade badly, but rode anyways. He got his teeth capped durring the race because he was grinding them down while riding in such pain. He ended up finishing second to Italy's Simoni. When the Tour de France came it was once again exciting to see how Hamilton would do. On the very first stage Hamilton fell, along with tens of other rides in what was one of the biggest crashs of Tour history; he had broken his collar bone and was expected to drop out.
Once again Hamilton defied expectations and remained in the race, and his preformance was most interesting. At first he just tried to cling-on since, let's face it, he had a broken collar bone. When the Tour reached the mountains Hamilton put in an incredibly amazing preformance, he stayed with the leaders on almost all of the stages, and stayed close on the rest. He even attacked a few times, and if he was met with faliure on those it was probably because he was in so much pain that he had to attack in the saddle.
Later on in the Tour, on a non-mountain ending stage, Hamilton attacked and made it. This is more amazing and ground-breaking than may meet the eye, and I think it may open up a whole new kind of Tour racing.
On the flat stages there are break-aways all the time, groups of riders that get in front of the peleton (the main bunch of riders) and try to beat them to the line. Normally they loose because 100 guys can out endurance 7 anyday, but even if they win, these riders are never very high in the overall classification and are let to win, never advancing any where near the leader board. The real time gains from the leaders (like Hamilton and Armstrong) are put on in the mountains. The main group is normally over half an hour behind (no one can make up that kind of time); the other leaders are all normally within a few minutes of each other, but the Tour is won be minutes, and sometimes seconds.
However, mountain stages need two things to be mountain stages. First the need mountains (obviosly), but they also need to end on mountains, otherwise the time gains the leaders put in going up the mountain can be lost to someone willing to take chances on the descent of the mountain, or because the peleton will reform at the top and when they reach flat they'll out endurance the person in front. So no leader ever tries to put in gains on the non-mountain stages, even if there are mountains in it.
Tyler Hamilton's break-away win last Tour could change this. Leaders don't break away, they know the whole peleton will try to hunt them down, and they know that the next day they'll be much more tired than usual. Hamilton showed though, that when a real top rider gives a break-away and plans well, they can do it. Now competition for the yellow jersey may move onto the non-montain stages, after the big climbs so that the gains from those break-aways can't be made up later. If Hamilton has a chance of wining, he needs to try this again, and he may not be alone. I'm excited that this really may be a revolution in Tour racing if any of the team captins can see it, and if any can, Hamilton's can, he's the best in the buisness.
What I see happening this race between Hamilton and Armstrong is Hamilton keeping pace with Lance all the time, never losing big gaps to him, but I don't think Hamilton will be able to pull out the end of race, up-hill accelerations that Armstrong is going to give. So I think Armstrong will take it those mountain stages by a few short minutes, but Hamilton will always be there, even in the time trials, keeping up and making it one hell of a race.
posted
I did see it and read it. <grin> I just hadn't responded. I like your points. You've convinced me that Tyler is more of a threat than Heras, and that Tyler may turn out to be the biggest competition that Lance has.
I worry about Tyler's team though, because they have more "big" names than just him, and therefore the team will not be as totally focused on Tyler but have other goals too. This may hurt him. Though it may not given his outstanding individual breakaway last year. Lance I'm sure has not forgotten that! He will NEVER let Tyler get away with that this year.
I think it a breakaway like that though often attempted is something that would only happen once to any individual under rare circumstances. I don't think it will be repeated soon or often, and I don't think it will rewrite cycling strategy. Tyler was behind enough in the GC that Lance could afford to let him go. It won't happen this year.
Tyler proved that he's a worthy contender, especially given the hideous additional pain he endured. It is possible that the pain did give him a psychological edge he might not have had otherwise. Bodies and human minds are funny that way. But you can't count on that one way or the other. Tyler did demonstrate extreme mental toughness. Quite possibly more than Lance at that time.
posted
Your probably right about the strategy not changing, but the thing is what will stop it wont be the fact that Lance would never let Hamilton go this year, since he will try not to do that on a typical mountain stage either, what I was thinking could (but probably wont) happen is that GC contenders begin to see opportunities in stages that don't end in mountain tops as well as typical mountain stages.
Hamilton's team is his big draw back, but if he plays smart he can ride off of Lance's team and just sit on Armstrong's wheel for the mountain lead outs, it'll cost him manuveribility strategy-wise but if he gonna win this he'll have to be able to beat Armstrong in a mountain finish in a one on one battle and then the teams wont matter. How Hamilton's team looking for the TTT? That can be pretty important.
I'm really psyched about his chances for a few reasons. We've only seen Hamilton race on his own in two big races, and in both races he was suffering from an injury that would've kept any other biker off the roads, and he ended up finishing 4th and 2nd in the two biggest tours in the world (Yes, I consider the Giro much bigger the the Veulta Espana). Not only that, it's pretty easy to see that the Giro can really take a lot of your Tour de France preformce, and this year Hamilton is skipping it, allowing for mroe focused training, and not getting drained right before the Tour. Plus he's been racing beautifully, go CSC!
posted
As a side note, I'm getting mroe and more worried about Mayo, he's been doing splendidly this year, and he gets a big boost from the mountain time-trial. Last year his team (spelled something like: Eusketal-Euskadie, it's a Basque team) preformed dreadfuly in the TTT, they can probably do better this year since they will have a serious GC contender but not a whole lot better, so Armstrong will have the adcantage there and in the flat TT, but with the current strength of Mayo, and the possibilty that the team will put their entire focus on Mayo on make Hamier Zuebeldia (these names are killing me) work for him he can turn into a more serious threat than I've been anticipating.
posted
on and off, we haven't been watching much TV lately. I know i'm going to be glued to the tube in July. I try to watch the occasional rerun though.
posted
I've heard that Ulrich is getting better but that he's still 10 pounds overwieght. That's not a good sign for him.
One interesting tactic that T-Mobile could pull would involve the fact that they have to GC contenders (potentially). The time trial up Alp d'Huez is after I think the first two mountain stages. They could send Vinny up on either one or two in an all out attack. Armstrong would then have to choose, if he responds he'll use up a lot of energy for the key TT, though I'm confident he could keep Vinny under wraps if he does so. However, if he doesn't respond in deference to the upcoming TT stage, T-Mobile could simply push out Vinny as their GC contender instead of Ulrich and then Armstrong would've already lost valuable time.
Of course this ploy only works if Armstrong believes that Ulrich would be willing to give up the team lead this year, but on the other hand, when a potential GC winner attacks, it's a very difficult desicion not to respond.
posted
Yes Hobbes I did read this too. Just didn't have anything to say at the moment. Just cause I don't post doesn't mean I didn't read it. It means I didn't have anything remotely intelligent to respond.
posted
Well we could speculate as to if Cippolini will ride the tour or if his injury will keep him out. I'm not sure it will matter since it looks like Pettachi is even more dominate than he was last year, but if he drops out again (wimp!) then the green jersey is up for grabs. Cooke I think is still riding (right?) and Zable and Mcewn and who knoes who else, Stuart Grady, Cruz. Let's face it, the green jeresy was taken by a nobody last year, it's just as open this time, especially since Petachi might not be able to get the strength to finish two major tours so close to each other.
posted
How old is Danny Menchov? As I recall he took the white Jersey (best young rider) by a very sizable margin last year. Haven't heard a thing about him this year though, is he someone's domestique?
I give Virenque (how the heck is that spelled?) 2.5 to 1 odds of breaking the king of the mountains record and getting his 7th victory in that category. I'd give him better odds except a new rule was introduced this year that stage finishes are worth double in mountain points (an dmaybe green points as well, which gives Petachi an even bigger advantage should he finish the Tour) and the stages in the mountains are much more highly contested than the top sprints. I don't think it will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if the tour winner this year comes out in Polka-dotted yellow as a result.
posted
Hey, did I ever post my second Cousin Hobbes on the 2003 Tour? I remember writting it but not positing. If I didn't I should go dig that out and post it when I get home.
posted
You know I don't know, but I could certainly find out when I get home (stupid work ).
By the way, a while ago you mentioned that pain could help give Hamilton an edge last year, and though I agree in theory I don't think it helped at all. Once you pass a point, pain detracts instead of adding fury. Hamilton was so bad tht he couldn't get out of the saddle for more than a couple of seconds, and even when he did that he winced with pain. Whatever edge he got mentally from the pain was well overcompensated for by the limits it put on him. I bet he does brilliantly.
posted
yes but there is also the athletic trick of channeling all your pain into the place that already hurts. (I've done it myself) You pretend all of the pain is coming from that one spot and it is easier than thinking about all the little bits that hurt. You know like slamming your thumb with a hammer while trying to scratch that annoying itch behind your elbow.
posted
Like I said, I agree with you in princable, but a broken collar bone is not something can be channeled away, it kept him from standing up on his bike simply because his body was incapable of supporting itself that way.
I had one of the Lance Armstrong Chronicles on last night while I was doing chores and then watched the Road to the Tour.
If I ever get to meet Lance Armstrong, and start shreiking at the octaves that the females were attaining outside Lance's bus on the Tour of Georgia, would someone please shoot me? I know people say my voice gets higher when I get excited but there are limits.
Secondly on the Road to the Tour presentation, they didn't sound terribly "dissapointed" by Lance's performance at the Dauphine, more impressed by the others. Apparently it has been anounced as a team strategy all along that they weren't going to try to win this, because Lance felt he put too much effort into it last year and it hurt him on the Tour.
quote:Out on the road, Mayo came rampaging by fighting himself, the road and the bike. But as you know by now it was pretty bloody effective. Millar was pushing a pretty big gear for such a slope, but still seemed to come through pretty quick behind his minute man, even although Jaksche looked really smooth.
Virenque was giving it his usual 110%, but the noise was building just below him suggesting that Hamilton was making up a big chunk of time.
Moreau looked good, too, with a real grimacing effort. In what seemed like no time later, Armstrong came cruising by, barely looking like he was pushing.
And then he was gone. And then the banners came down, and the fans did their best to ignore the gendarmerie who were trying to control the descent back into Megeve.
Lance while not the fastest did quite well in that time trial. What could he have done if he actually tried? Clearly he isn't disclosing what is actually in the tank. They said he did work up the Ventoux, but it sound like he didn't necessarily start riding to win all the way.
quote: Vinokourov loses driver's licence T-Mobile's Alexandre Vinokourov isn't just fast on the bike, he's also fast behind the wheel - but too fast for the French police. Vino was caught doing 103 km/h in a 50 km/h zone Wednesday in Nice. After paying a fine of €135, he was allowed to continue, but as a passenger in his own car while his wife drove.
How did he get to the police station the next day to sign his statement? Well, he can still ride his bike, fortunately, because he has now lost his driver's license for two months.
quote:Two years later, Armstrong set the current record for the ascent of the Ventoux when he clocked 50 minutes while chasing Richard Virenque in stage 14 of the Tour. Virenque won the stage, but Armstrong's domination of that year's Tour was complete.
It is only the time-trial record of Vaughters at 56'50" that was broken by Hamilton and Mayo
quote: 1 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 55.51.49 (23.202 km/h) 2 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.35.26 3 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 1.03.09 4 Juan Miguel Mercado (Spa) Quick.Step-Davitamon 1.48.44 5 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal presented by Berry Floor 1.57.89
posted
My vote is for Tyler Hamiliton. Like Heras, he has ridden as Lance's first leutenant but he is a much better time trialist than Heras. I think that the time trial on the Alpe de Huez favors him.
I'm also a big fan of Jan Ullrich. He's looking quite good in the Tour of Switzerland right now. If the weather is hot like it was last year, I think he will win the tour but cold and rain will favor Lance over either Ullrich or Hamilton.
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posted
I can't make myself like Jan, he's too much of an arrogant spoiled rich boy with a drug problem. Yeah Tyler went to a rich kids school, but he's humble. Jan isn't. You'd think after getting beaten 4 times he would be but he isn't.
posted
What makes you think Jan is an arrogant spoiled rich boy? I read his website all the time and have heard his interviews on German television and he always comes across as very gracious and down to earth. That is what I like about him. There is never any swagger like you get with Lance.
And as far as the drug problem goes, I believe he took one ecstasy pill at a party, which was down right idiotic for a bike racer but hardly consititutes "a drug problem".
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posted
Vinokorov may be out of the Tour de France completely, he's expected to be out for at least 3 weeks after a crash yesterday in the Tour de Suisse, putting his Tour start in jeapordy. So Ulrich might have lost one of his best domestiques, even if Vino wasn't going to be a pure domestique.
posted
Yes, I saw that on the web this afternoon. It looks like he's torn several ligaments in his shoulder and the timing couldn't be worse. Even if he is able to ride the tour, it won't be able to train for it.
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