posted
At least there's no Diddy-sponsored award show going on this time to demand the attention of a huge portion of the police force while the population of non-celebrities in South Florida face the hurricane without the benefit of a full force of law enforcement officials.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.
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Since the hurricane is projected to be coming from the west and travel north of Miami, with Miami far enough away from the eye to experience only tropical force winds at worst, there shouldn't be any storm surges hitting the campuses.
posted
If the northern front across the US -- which is supposed to push Wilma eastward -- arrives in time to prevent a Yucatan landfall, there may be an accompanying windshear that would lessen the speed of the hurricane's winds to a considerable degree.
If not, HurricaneWilma might follow the same path as HurricaneStan did; travel westward across Mexico into the PacificOcean.
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quote:If not, there is a chance that HurricaneWilma will do the same thing as HurricaneStan did: cross Mexico into the PacificOcean.
That seems very unlikely. Currently, (i.e. prior to the arrival of the northern front), Wilma is heading due north. If the front doesn't arrive in time, it seems most likely that Wilma would continue on its current northerly trajectory, move into the gulf of Mexico and potentially hit land along the US gulf coast. I don't see anything that is likely to push the storm westward.
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR... WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.
posted
I stand corrected. For some reason I had the map turned a bit in my head putting the gulf of Mexico due north of the Yukatan rather than northwest of the Yukatan.
But still, if the Hurricane continues on its current west northwest trajectory it will cross the yukatan and end up in the gulf of mexico. In order for it to cross Mexico and end up in the pacific, it would have to turn to the southwest which seems highly unlikely.
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posted
Yep, Rabbit, and your statement matches that of the talk from the NationalHurricaneCenter experts. Which is why I used "might" in: If not, HurricaneWilma might follow the same path as HurricaneStan did. Guess I should have italicized might for more emphasis.
However, as I stated before on this thread, the NHC has been predicting a more northward path than has occurred from each point recorded on Wilma's actual storm track. ie Wilma has been squirrelly in movement when compared to the NHC predictions. So I'm more willing to offer possibilities which differ from the NHC predictions for consideration by others.
posted
BTW: Take a look at the difference in sea surface temperatures for the Gulf of Mexico between Oct18 and Oct19. Which was one of the things which made me think that perhaps the cold pressure cell of the northern front has already descended onto the Gulf of Mexico, with perhaps enough pressure to prevent Wilma's northward movement past the Yucatan. Just speculation. Of course, if I hadda know what I was talking about I'd talk a lot less.
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posted
"Pressure of 882 and hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from the center?! 175 mph is a pretty conservative wind speed estimate..."
From an article on HurricaneWilma's unusual features, "A hurricane’s winds are blown because higher-pressure [outside] air rushes [inward] toward the lower-pressure eye to equalize the difference. Typically, the lower the pressure, the faster the air speeds in. But because the [outside] pressure around each storm is different, lower [central] pressure doesn’t [directly] correspond to a specific wind speed."
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR WILMA IS A [top end] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.
WILMA HAS [been] MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13KM/HR...WITH SOME WOBBLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR... WILMA IS A [top end] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
WILMA IS...MOVING...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR WITH SOME WOBBLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WILMA IS A[n upper level] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES.
WILMA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR... WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES.
posted
Why do I have an image of Fred Flintstone standing outside yelling "WILLLLLLLLMAAAAAAAAAAAA!" as loud as he can?
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quote:Originally posted by DarkKnight: Why do I have an image of Fred Flintstone standing outside yelling "WILLLLLLLLMAAAAAAAAAAAA!" as loud as he can?
For two days, I've been asking myself the same question . . .
. . . and wondering if it would be utterly insensitive of me to mention it considering that peoples lives are in the balance.
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quote:WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT.
This is not good news for the people in the Yucatan. Looking at the maps it appears that there is no escape.
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posted
I've been getting the same image And wondering why the NationalHurricaneCenter hasta print advisories in capital letters. It's not like the rest of their website is written that way. It's not like they don't have the time to make proper use of capitalization: the advisories are usually posted online ~15minutes before scheduled.
But then, the NationalHurricaneCenter website is one of the worst designed for extracting information. Not only is the most-looked-for information buried in the all-capitals text instead of being placed as the leading lines on the advisories, but the public can't directly access old advisories and old forecasts. Instead ya hafta download a bunch of pages and non-links -- individually by changing numbers in the browser address box -- then sort through them visually to find the relevant pages. They don't even publish the actual storm track along with their forecast maps. It's almost as if the NHC's head bureaucrats are afraid that the public expects forecasts to be perfect.
Though I've been tempted to retype the advisories into something less screaming and more readable, I'm also leary of even the amount of condensation, changed line placement, and bracketed personal notes that I'm already doing; so...
WILMA IS MOVING...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WILMA IS A[n upper level] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.
quote:This is not good news for the people in the Yucatan. Looking at the maps it appears that there is no escape.
My dad worked on hurrican relief efforts and planning for the Navy. He said the general rule is "run from water, hide from wind." Of course, this requires an appropriate hiding place: strong enough building or underground shelter. Of course, the height needed to avoid water generally makes one more vulnerable to wind.
The Yucatan has some high ground. I hope there are adequate shelters there. But they don't necessarily have to get off the penninsula to be safe if they have adequate shelters.
I have a bad feeling that the strongest buildings might be all on the coast, though.
posted
BTW: When looking at maps, each degree of latitude is 60nauticalmiles/~69miles/~111kilometres. So the 5degrees between lines on the NHC forecast map is about 300nm : "about" because the longitude lines(rings) shrink as their distance from the equator(ring) increases.
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Even though the eye of this hurricane is still around 12 hours away, the edge of the hurricane is already striking the coast of the Yukatan. The next 24 hours are going to be brutal for the people there. And the storm is currently getting stronger rather than weaker.
I'd say prayers are in order.
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posted
BTW, Isn't it cool that we can get all this stuff online. Back in my grad. school days, we used to have to go to the map room on the top floor of the UW meterology building to see this kind of stuff. And of course, that was limited access.
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posted
Yep. And really nice to be able to easily share whatcha find. Here's a usefully large (click to expand) map of Central America, the Caribbean, and the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
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posted
Looking at this topographic (click to enlarge) map of NorthAmerica, the triangular tip region of the Yucatan peninsula is as flat and low to the ocean as southern FloridaPosts: 8501 | Registered: Jul 2001
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posted
If you watch the animation of the satellite map right now, you can see the hurricane disappear as the sunsets. Wouldn't that be nice? If you can't see it, it isn't there.
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WILMA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL [large tourist resort island just east of the Yucatan Peninsula] AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED IN COZUMEL AND ADJACENT AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WILMA IS A[n upper level] CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WILMA REGAINS CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.
Even IF the hurricane turns north-northeast so that it's eye passes through the center of the YucatanChannel between Mexico and Cuba, Wilma is so large that: at least CategoryOne hurricane strength winds and rain will hit the coasts of both countries; and tropical force winds and rain will hit a large section of western Cuba and most of the triangular tip of the YucatanPeninsula.
Which is the best case scenario minimizing the combined damage in both countries. And a possibly very bad one for the US. Without a landfall or near landfall of the hurricane's eye to greatly reduce Wilma's strength, there is a very strong chance that: Wilma will pass through the YucatanChannel into the Gulf of Mexico as a Cat.5 hurricane; and even the Gulf's lower sea surface temperatures, lower humidity, and greater windshear won't weaken the hurricane enough to prevent Wilma from making landfall in the US as an extremely strong hurricane.
posted
Wilma’s outer eyewall made landfall in Cozumel at ~8:15am. The hurricane’s eye is ~40miles/~64kilometres wide -- ~20miles/32kilometres in radius -- while the center of the eye was ~50miles/~80kilometres southeast of Cozumel.
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posted
Everything I'm reading is about the resorts and tourists. What about the hundred of thousands of Mexicans who live there, of whom 94% live below poverty level?
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posted
Looks like I better go buy new tires while I can . . .
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Boon
unregistered
posted
My in-laws live about here. That seems right in the path of the storm track, neh? It's unlikely that they'll evacuate. They rode out Andrew, and, even though their neighbor's roof blew off, they've stayed home for every hurricane since then.
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posted
(click to enlarge) Cozumel is being totally trashed. With 145to140mph/233to225kph winds&rain battering the island for hours on end, I expect that the overwhelming majority of homes will be destroyed. And even the poshest resort hotels will have the most of their windows blown out, and a substantial portion of their interior doors and walls blown into the internal corridors.
I hope I'm very very wrong, but the death&casualty figures could be horrendously ugly. Including large numbers of disappeared buried under sand and mudslides or swept away from the island by the tidal surge.
posted
I've been watching the sattellite pictures all morning. Wilma's just been virtually sitting on top of Cozumel at least since dawn. I keep reading in the US news about how it's "good news" that this storm is moving so slowly because that gives it more time to loose strength before it hits the US.
It seems that such sentiments are very insensitive in the least to the Mexican's and Cuban's who are getting totally trashed by this monster storm. The more slowly it moves, the worse it will be for all those people who live on the Yucatan pennisula and in Cuba. It makes me angry to read articles about tourists who are trapped in hot over crowded shelters, when the local residents are loosing their homes.
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posted
Yeah, I totally agree. And I think that'll be a topic, possibly a thread for later
But I read hours ago in the NBC article posted above that the roof of the gymnasium where Cancun tourists/refugees are being housed was already leaking, with winds still under or barely reaching tropical storm force. The windows weren't boarded up and unlikely to become so. Which doesn't bode well for the roof to survive the hurricane.
quote:Everything I'm reading is about the resorts and tourists. What about the hundred of thousands of Mexicans who live there, of whom 94% live below poverty level?
I heard a piece last night on...hm...either All Things Considered, Marketplace, or BBC World Service that made me feel somewhat better about the average person's chances of weathering this storm, Rabbit. According to the piece local governments have been taking the threat of hurricanes pretty seriously since Glibert ripped through the Yucatan in 1988. Most people still have their stockpiles of food and water from a hurricane scare this past June, according to the piece, and announcemnts have been being made over both the radio and speakers in both Spanish and Mayan warning people about the storm and advising them to make their way to shelters (and apparently shelters exist, too, which is always a good thing. I have no idea what they consist of, though, or how well constructed they are).
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posted
Rabbit, I have not heard that tone around here.
Maybe it's because, this close to Latin America, many people here have relatives in the afflicted areas. But the tone I have heard has been concern for all those affected, not relief that it's spending more time in Mexico.
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posted
Rabbit, it always upsets me when the US news reports only US deaths, and acts like other people don't even matter. That happens far too often. I wish there were some way we could clue them all in that we do count other nationalities as people, and what happens to them matters to us. Icarus, I'm glad that attitude isn't universal, as shown by your area. I mean, we're the melting pot country! Americans are from everywhere, and have friends and family from all over the world. It's just weird that so many of the US news outlets don't seem to realize that yet.
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET [2.3to3.3metres] ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES
When Wilma's outer eyewall first struck Cozumel, Cuba was reporting 20foot/6metre waves were hitting its southwestern coastline. Photograph of a Wilma-generated wave hitting GrandCayman*, which remained outside of Wilma's path.
Still no news coming out of Cozumel. Any mention seems to be repetition of the last news reports which came out a bit before 75mph/120kph hurricane-force wind&rain touched the island, before the ~10foot/~3metre storm surge had arrived. And well before the 145mph/233kph outer eyewall struck Cozumel with more than 7times as much power, and with possibly 45foot+/13.5+metre waves on top of the storm surge.
* Star-marked island south of Havana, Cuba. Click to enlarge map.
posted
The news coming out of the Yucatan remains sparce, but "In Cancun, the Caribbean flowed over the hotel zone, reached three stories high and merged with an inland lagoon. Hundreds of tourists had to be rescued from their refuge at a gymnasium after the roof blew away." Wonder if the gynasium is the one with the leaky roof mentioned in the article posted earlier.
Still no news from Cozumel, except the mention of a Mexican naval ship which ran across several floating bodies, and a mention of a "fruit and vegetable salesman who phoned in that damage was minimal". Considering that no other Cozumelian has phoned, internetted, or radioed out a message*...
* Which is unusual cuz there are a LOT of direct satellite-bounce phones, satellite-bounce internet-linked computers, and radio transceivers there for the boating&yachting crowd, and a lot of private electrical generators. Plus there is a Mexican naval station on the island, which apparently hasn't been back in contact yet. Though I suppose that could have been evacuated before the hurricane struck. However, about half of Cozumel's population did not evacuate.
posted
Noemon, I get a 404 on that link. Could they have moved the article? I can't find it on the BBC news website. Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
The satellite loop here makes me wonder if the two storms will eventually collide. Click on the "Tropical Forecast Points" check box, after the whole loop loads, to see the projected future path of the two storms.
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I'd talk a lot less.
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And wondering why the NationalHurricaneCenter hasta print advisories in capital letters. It's not like the rest of their website is written that way. It's not like they don't have the time to make proper use of capitalization: the advisories are usually posted online ~15minutes before scheduled.
