You assume Israel has enough nukes to take out half the middle east, and the delivery systems to make it possible. That's pure conjecture.
As for Koreans and ICBMS, they have nukes capable of reaching almost anywhere in Asia, to Japan, and Alaska. Best guess is they will have missiles capable of reaching most of the continental US by 2008. Read that in Time Magazine a year ago.
Also, the US has a laughably low humint capability in Iran BC, getting boots on the ground to root out the truth sounds really cool in a Tom Clancy novel, but that takes LONG TERM planning and execution.
And what makes you think we could muster the power to invade Tehran? We're saber rattling against Syria, threatening Iran, trying to keep Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in line, bolstering democracy in Lebanon, and that's just ONE region of the world. That says nothing of what we are trying to do in North Korea, about relations with China, and for that matter, all of Africa and South America.
There comes a point where there is only so much America can do.
posted
"There comes a point where there is only so much America can do." Exactly. And we are dangerously close to that point. Iraq has stretched us thin.
Posts: 6316 | Registered: Jun 2003
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posted
Part of the problem is that Bush and Rumsfeld are trying to fight a war while simultaneously retooling the US Armed Forces to make them lighter, and more mobile without losing lethality. We have the ability to do that, and it involves massive base closings, huge troop reshuffling, and armament retooling.
Starting another war, without finishing the first TWO wars we started, while in the midst of the most major retooling of the armed forces since before the Berlin Wall came down is irresponsible and stupid. Unless we institute the draft. That's the only way I see it becoming plausible, and even that is a prelude to a MAJOR increase in defense spending and major purchases of more military hardware. As if the tens of billions in funding increases to the military weren't enough recently.
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posted
The most impressive heroes aren't the ones that go around trumpeting, "I'm a hero!"
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Morbo,
There are no sufficiently hardened targets that we cannot destroy with air power. With the exception of going hundreds of feet below the surface (and not even then), and for that situation...
...well, there are other options. Now, unlike you I cannot speak for certain, but I believe you underestimate the dedication of Israeli intelligence services to this particular threat, and their willingness to throw money and resources at investigating it.
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But that's neither here nor there. I will say one thing, though. If Israel launched a non-nuclear attack against Iran, without having one from Iran, they would not lose American foreign aid. You know why? Because the leadership of Iran is calling for Israel's destruction, and they are developing nukes. It's just that simple.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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quote:There comes a point where there is only so much America can do.
There also is a point where we are doing the opposite of what we intend to be doing. If Iraq has proven anything yet, it should be that using unilateral preemptive invasion to fight fundamentalism only has the opposite of the intended effect.
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posted
I don't think Iraq has proven anything yet. It will take years, perhaps decades to see the results. For example, postwar Germany was not a pretty picture either.
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posted
Post WWII Germans though were receptive to our rebuilding efforts. They weren't firing RPGs at our planes during the Berlin Airlift BQT.
And thank you for the link Noemon.
Rakeesh -
How do you know there are no hardened targets or bunkers or any hidden areas of strength in Iran? Can you cite evidence? Or is it just conjecture?
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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There are no sufficiently hardened targets that we cannot destroy with air power. With the exception of going hundreds of feet below the surface (and not even then), and for that situation...
...well, there are other options. Now, unlike you I cannot speak for certain, but I believe you underestimate the dedication of Israeli intelligence services to this particular threat, and their willingness to throw money and resources at investigating it.
-----
But that's neither here nor there. I will say one thing, though. If Israel launched a non-nuclear attack against Iran, without having one from Iran, they would not lose American foreign aid. You know why? Because the leadership of Iran is calling for Israel's destruction, and they are developing nukes. It's just that simple.
Did you read that link I posted on why there won't be another Osirik-like raid?
It spells out in detail why Israel can't do it alone.
Even with US support, it would be an extended bombing campaign, over days and weeks, with no confidence of 100% success-- hardly a "quick and surgical" raid.
And you do speak with certainty--you claim that US and Israeli intelligence could find all nukes and nuclear programs in Iran, and our AFs could destroy them all. This turns out not to be the case.
Posts: 6316 | Registered: Jun 2003
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quote: I also think you might underestimate Israel's military might... those are scary good soldiers.
Top-notch quality, and the best in the world in times of need. Israel won in 1967, and won in 1973 despite all odds.
Israel is also aware of the dangers of trying to blow Iran up. This probably seems like a rather simple statement - but Israel, particularly the intelligence force (with which I have had the privileged honour of being acquainted with), is very careful about any foolish action.
Things at this magnitude are taken very seriously, and I assure you that I will not be blown off the map in the next month due to foolish Israeli moves. Also, remember that no religious fanatic from either Judaism, Christianity or Islam would be so stupid to blow up Jerusalem. The worst missile attacks Israel suffered were in 1991, where 37 (I think) landed in Tel Aviv.
quote: There also is a point where we are doing the opposite of what we intend to be doing. If Iraq has proven anything yet, it should be that using unilateral preemptive invasion to fight fundamentalism only has the opposite of the intended effect.
While I think, personally, that Bush invvaded Iraq for very personal reasons, and while I think that it was a wrong and grossly miscalculated move that did only harm - I am grateful for the soldiers. I am grateful that there are people who, even if they do something so accidentally terrible such as fluctuating the Middle-Eastern status quo, they do it for the benifit of peace. Right or wrong, at least it's an attempt for helping.
So thank you very much, all you soldiers in Iraq, but I wish that your lives could be spared and that you didn't have to be stuck in Iraq. I don't think that Israel needs your direct military assistance now.
quote: There comes a point where there is only so much America can do.
I think that the United States of America should stop feeling responsible and fully-credited for constructing Pax Americana. While I realised that this is a mixed act of pompous self-boasting and sincere goodwill, I think that it cn harm. Again, thanks for sticking your nose in and scaring the bad guys off, but sometimes the nose can get in the good guys' way.
Israel will deal with Iran as it sees fit; I can assure you that nothing foolish such as an airraid or war will happen without speaking to the US first - but please, just let us do our work our way, the way we're used to do it. We really do appreciate the goodwill and concern that's been present even since Golda Meir gathered $50M from you in 1948 to buy weapons for our survival, independence war.
We'll do our work, and consult you when needed. Posts: 2978 | Registered: Oct 2004
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posted
Of course that consultation, regardless of the help we've offered in the past, will most likely be ignored unless it 100% agrees with what you wanted to do in the first place. Israel makes me laugh only because they don't listen to anyone, but throw the biggest hissy fit in the world whenever you talk about cutting support to Israel. All the benefit without any of the responsibility is incredibly hipocritial if you ask me.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote: I believe you underestimate the dedication of Israeli intelligence services to this particular threat, and their willingness to throw money and resources at investigating it.
You probaly are; the Israeli intelligence is far more extensive than US intelligence or UK intelligence (relatively to population). The different branches collaborate efficiently, and I know what I'm talking about here; seriously, no boast. I may be oblivious to almost all things, but this thing I've actualy studied from professionals, and I can tell you for sure that the Israeli intelligence service is not to be underestimated.
It has proven itself in the past. Even in 1973. Trust it, Morbo; trust it to be able to manage the intelligence bit. Military is another matter.
Posts: 2978 | Registered: Oct 2004
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posted
Even if Iran had nukes, in my opinion they wouldn't be stupid enough to use them.
"Thanks" to the traitor spy, everyone knows that Israel has over 300 warheads, it will take the Iranians quite a while to produce a match for Israel's nuclear power.
Israel seems the only country in the middle east with a missle defense system that actually works...
Israel is surrounded by weak Arab countries that signed a peace deal with her, Iran is bordered by Iraq, Pakistan, Afgahistan - meaning the US - and by China and Russia. All three states have nuclear power. China has weapon deals with Israel(despite all the trouble it gave Israel with the US), and it does not want to lose its partner. And Russia - my guess is that they'd like to get involved and regain their power and influence that they used to have (of course now without all of the communist preaching and totalitarism...).
However, destroying the nukes in Iran will not be easy. This is not 1981. And these are not Arabs, but Persians. I'm sure that if they indeed have nukes, they've spread their supply and had it well hidden.
Hopefully, I will not have to face a war in my country...
But Beanny's right - at the time being, no country in the Middle East is a match for Israel on its own. Iran hasn't had nuclear power since the 60s like Israel, and it just won't work for them yet.
Israel, in the meantime, is treating this matter very seriously.
Posts: 2978 | Registered: Oct 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: Post WWII Germans though were receptive to our rebuilding efforts. They weren't firing RPGs at our planes during the Berlin Airlift BQT.
There are of course differences, no analogy is a perfect example. However, here's a little bit of what I was talking about here.
My purpose was not to dispute facts of the problems there, but merely to point out that a more realistic time frame might be needed before judgements are handed out about the success of beheading a dictatorship and establishing diplomacy through a military operation. History may show that such an operation was a complete failure, or that it was the quickest method for change with the lowest body count. We just don't know yet. I think that only reasons such for judgement calls right now are political in nature and thus suspect.
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posted
That's still a horrible analogy. Those factors don't mean anything when we still don't have basic control over the area we're in. Where's the numbers on how many citizens and troops were dying two and a half years into the occupation from guerilla attacks?
Municipal councils? Seriously? Your priorities are skewed if you place municipal councils on the same level as security from insurgent attacks from a progress standpoint. And what does their 56,000 troops matter? They can't operate without US forces guiding them by the hand, and for all we know, half of them are spying for insurgents.
I think it's safe to say Iraq was a big mistake, and we would have been better off if we have never gone back there.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Jonathan Howard: Israel, particularly the intelligence force (with which I have had the privileged honour of being acquainted with
What, the entire Mossad?
Posts: 32919 | Registered: Mar 2003
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posted
rivka, I suppose that JH is in "Gadna Mizrahanim", which is a pre-enlistment institute to promote the study of arabic and islam so that the participants will work for the military intelligence in the future.
Posts: 803 | Registered: Dec 2004
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posted
I assure that while the average Iraqi, be he ING, IP or insurgent who is given a gun turns into a thug, however that said we are not done with them yet and to call this occupation a failure and a mistake is simply cowardly. Yes Cowardly! It is wanting to run because something is difficult. We killed half the able bodied men in Germany to secure the peace that followed, imagine if we had limited the scale of WWII and tried to occupy while they were still full of wind! This is a new situation, it is not Viet Nam, it is not Japan, it is not Germany. We have no training manuals, we are writing them. Every day I go out and we talk to people, what they are afraid of, what they need, who is stirring up trouble, our medics see to their kids, our bases give them jobs, and they give us cache after cache, insurgent after insurgent. You think we lose because 90 soldiers die in a month? What if some silly ass were to start recording teenage traffic deaths tomorrow as headline news? When they reach 2000 will you call for us to abandon the automobile? We are soldiers we signed up for this, we get paid for it, it is what we do. Just because you do not have the stomach for it, don't put your fear above our service to the most important Shaping Force for human good on the face of the Planet!
Yes I am Confident Israel can take care of itself, I still laugh when I think of them using hellfire missiles on that guy in the Wheel Chair, Hee Hee....
Still there are things that it is better for Uncle Sam to do, If we need to retool we could just open the bidding to the Chinese! (Joke)
well Duty calls, one of my friends just got us a pool table! War is Hell!
posted
The deaths aren't what make it a failure. The fact that no matter the outcome there, it isn't worth the price. And judging from the lack of anything resembling promising news, I'd say it's not only not worth it, we're going to leave that country in worse shape than when we got there.
Success in Iraq has to be a fully functional, pro US democracy. That's what America was promised by the Bush administration, that is what I will use as my guide to success. Right now I see a hostile hellhole that has only steadily gotten worse. If we have to wait while the army kills off the insurgents one by one, then it WILL be a failure, we can't keep this up indefinetely unless we raise taxes or cut spending elsewhere.
I just don't see the point in spending billions upon billions of dollars to kill Syrian infiltrators and men who weren't terrorists before we got there. It's like wandering into a drunken barfight swinging a broken bottle, then complaining that while you are there you have to finish the fight. Afterall, can't leave the bar a mess, have to clean up after yourself.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Your chest thumping, patriotic rigmarole is an embarrassment.
You speak of your "choice" to join the military as if it should serve as an example of your superior moral character, distinguishing you from the many men and women who serve without the self-aggrandizing propaganda that you spew forth, or from the men and women who, for whatever reason, choose not to serve at all.
Cowards, you call them, cowards for disagreeing with you; as if your role as a soldier gives you the right to judge them.
Well, as long as we’re passing judgment, I name you coward.
A coward, who is afraid to have their beliefs or ideas challenged; A coward, whose self-image is built up by tearing others down; A coward, who believes that bravado and bluster can compensate for true courage; A coward, who is too afraid to even admit that he’s afraid,
quote:Originally posted by Lyrhawn: Of course that consultation, regardless of the help we've offered in the past, will most likely be ignored unless it 100% agrees with what you wanted to do in the first place. Israel makes me laugh only because they don't listen to anyone, but throw the biggest hissy fit in the world whenever you talk about cutting support to Israel. All the benefit without any of the responsibility is incredibly hipocritial if you ask me.
Cut aid to Israel. All of it. Today. Cold turkey.
Posts: 12266 | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
How likely is it that that will ever come to pass though THT? Iran's government will never go for a decentralization of their power.
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Blayne Bradley
unregistered
posted
I find that the ethnic option is uitimately unfeasible and will only at best result in the slowing down of the programme. At worst some of those guns could fall into insurgant hands.
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Blayne Bradley
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posted
THT, I think Lisa is daring you.
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Blayne, I didn't make the original statement to cut funding, and daring me to do so would be woefully unimpressive as I have already cut off all financial aid to Israel, having never actually startedPosts: 1480 | Registered: Dec 2004
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The removal of ambassadors throughout Europe -- who had negotiated the prior deal to keep Iran's nuclear program in check -- is looking like a purge.
Posts: 22497 | Registered: Sep 2000
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quote: Cut aid to Israel. All of it. Today. Cold turkey.
Lisa, In your opinion, what point does this serve?
It's to Israel's benefit. It will enable Israel to make decisions on the basis of its own self-interest, without worrying about what Big Daddy America will say or do.
No junkie wants to go cold turkey. And certainly no pusher wants its customers to do so. But it's the right thing to do.
That's from an Israeli point of view. From an American point of view, foreign aid in the case of immediate emergencies is one thing. Having a welfare program for other countries is quite another. While it may feel good to be buying control of the policies of other countries, it's wrong to do so. Both because it's an egregious interference in those other countries, and because the Constitution most certainly does not grant the federal government the right to levy taxes on US citizens in order to give goodies to other countries.
Posts: 12266 | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
Calling me "Coward" is as laughable as calling two men "Married", good luck with that new dictionary inside the space between your ears, the only place it has relevance.
Those who cannot find good news out of Iraq are simply avoiding it, like the evidence of links between Al Quaida and Baghdad, like the presence of WMD components, like the checks Saddam paid to suicide bombers, they are embarrassing facts that a closed mind cannot accept without shifting worldview so they are easier to deny or ignore.
The only one who should be worried about my embarrassment is me, and I would only feel shame to not be where I am doing what I am doing when I could be.
"A warrior looks to his own impeccability and calls that Humility"
I am a Hero not because I am special, but because I am part of the greatest force for good ever assembled in the process of seeing to humanities future. If you are not then how on earth do you live with yourself?
quote: I am a Hero not because I am special, but because I am part of the greatest force for good ever assembled in the process of seeing to humanities future. If you are not then how on earth do you live with yourself?
<edit: insert your own comments here>
quote: Those who cannot find good news out of Iraq are simply avoiding it, like the evidence of links between Al Quaida and Baghdad, like the presence of WMD components, like the checks Saddam paid to suicide bombers, they are embarrassing facts that a closed mind cannot accept without shifting worldview so they are easier to deny or ignore.
Those who cannot find bad news out of Iraq are simply avoiding it, like the links between Cheney's office and supposed evidence linking Al Quaida and Baghdad, like the suspected WMD components that could double as agricultural equipment , like the checks that were paid to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers, violating no international laws, embarrassing facts that a closed mind cannot accept without shifting worldview, so they are easier to deny or ignore.
Denying all opposition to your point of view based on solely on the fact that it disagrees with your position is foolish at best, dangerous at worst.
posted
Papa, I tried to keep this thread on topic as much as I possibly could, and have unfortunately derailed it by reacting in anger. I've edited out the personal attack while attempting to keep the substance of my response.
If this is unacceptable then please lock it, delete it, or do whatever you feel is necessary.
quote: It's to Israel's benefit. It will enable Israel to make decisions on the basis of its own self-interest, without worrying about what Big Daddy America will say or do.
When has Israel ever NOT done something it wanted to do for worries about what America would say or do? Israel has taken American handouts for fifty years, and in part because of them has become a strong regional power. And now you say that we're the ones who are in the wrong and shouldn't be doing it?
This is one of those times I REALLY wish I had a time machine. I wonder how Israel would have faired without American aid for the last 50 years.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Doing good does not a hero make, Bean Counter.
Certainly not if you're as smug as you are about it.
--------
Lyrhawn,
If you'd had that time machine, then the land that the Arabs didn't give a damn about until Jews were on it would have belonged to them again, to marginalize and ignore, and many, many Jews would be dead.
They aren't 'handouts'. Personally, I consider ongoing foreign aid to Israel to be a partial expiation of our (American) national shame for ignoring the Holocaust until some Japanese people bombed a base in the Pacific.
A big part of my contempt for the politics of European nations in the region stems from a similar belief that they owe even more.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
If a few million KKK members took up residence in Alaska we'd probably care, even though right mow we don't pay a lot of attention to it.
NO I am not calling Jews the KKK, but Americans as a whole dislike the KKK, and Arabs as a whole dislike Israel, so choose whatever group you want that we'd have a dislike for to compare it to. They didn't care about the land as much before because it was theirs. And now they have millions of displaced peoples, and limited access to their holy places, so I don't deny them there anger, I'm surprised you do.
And alright Rakeesh, I accept that premise for foriegn aid. But if they all feel the way starLisa does, it's obvious they don't want us, and don't respect us. So I say let them figure it out themselves.
When the French go their own way, we call them cowards and change every joke in America to equate stupidity with French. When Israel goes their own way, while insulting America, we ignore it and give them tanks. I think there's something wrong with that.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Let's not kid ourselves, Lyrhawn. The Arab nations in the region didn't then and don't now give a hoot in hell about the Palestinian people. They could have lived up to their charitable obligations as Muslims and given real sanctuary to those displaced peoples...but refugee camps are a more potent political tool.
It was the neighboring nations I was talking about (but didn't mention specifically, that's my bad), not the Palestinians themselves.
As for your comparison between France and Israel...not that I grant your premise or the things you stated, but if I did, there would be one big difference.
We don't owe France crap. That's different with Israel. We owe them a shameful debt.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
National shame for ignoring the Holocaust? America was not even in the top five powers at that point in time, I can see where, as the sole Super Power we have certain Noblesse Oblige but then? Sorry I do not feel any shame at all for what Insane Germans did and six million people allowed to have happen to them. It is a good lesson on how far people will go, but that is a warning and a caution, not a chastisement.
Sorry I missed your next comment there HT must have been a doosie... Hee Hee.
Of course with people trying to kill me, the ones calling me names really don't fret me much.
In general Israel does what we wish we could do but can't because we are too big and would be perceived as bullies. The world can make allowances for the David fighting Goliath but not the other way.
I really love the way Israel lashes out with frightening ferocity when attacked. Sometimes I think the terrorist hit back again just to try and prove that they were not frightened by the last round of retribution when you can see the stains on the back of half the man dresses in Palestine.
The Jews and Arabs understand each other and are morally in the same place. Jesus gave the Christians a higher morality with Turn the Other Cheek and love those that do you Wrong. The Jews never got that note and the Koran takes it away in Sura 1 with "Your enemies I give you!" So they are in the same place as each other for different reasons. (Though the Jews in my experience are much more honest and less corrupt)
Essentially they live the same code of retribution that we ache to join but hold ourselves in check from trying to achieve a higher path. It makes it all the easier for us that Israel is not only able but eager to do the dirty work.
quote:They aren't 'handouts'. Personally, I consider ongoing foreign aid to Israel to be a partial expiation of our (American) national shame for ignoring the Holocaust until some Japanese people bombed a base in the Pacific.
So, wait a minute, we have to give them money because we, like the rest of the world, didn't come to their aid during the first half of WWII?
"Sorry another country tried to wipe you out, here's 50 years worth of unearned aid."
As much as it pains me to agree with BC, that doesn't make sense.
Although it doesn't change the fact that he has far too high an opinion of himself.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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quote:National shame for ignoring the Holocaust? America was not even in the top five powers at that point in time, I can see where, as the sole Super Power we have certain Noblesse Oblige but then?
You revel in revealing your ignorance, BC. At the time, we had by far the most robust economy and manufacturing capability. Within a matter of a couple of years, we had the largest military. We were definitely among the top five powers at the time.
It wasn't just Germans that did it. We turned away Jews fleeing the Holocaust, knowing full well what would happen to them. And we were willing to ignore what was going on in Europe until we were ourselves attacked. That is, to me, a national shame in living memory. It's a horrible shame because of how demonstratably hypocritical our behavior was, given our beliefs.
-----
Sprang,
"Sorry other nations tried and damn near succeeded to wipe you out, sorry for not stopping them, and sorry for sending boatloads of you away when you made it this far trying to escape."
I'll agree that one doesn't have to come to that conclusion, but it does make sense. It makes sense because we screwed them over egregiously, and it's still in living memory. Much like we owe-but will not stop such things-victims of massive genocides in Africa.
At least with Israel, we're paying our debt of shame.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
I personally liked our non-interference policy a lot better than our current "global police" policy. Bad things happen, but the Germans aren't giving aid to Israel out of guilt and I don't see why we should.
That doesn't mean I approve of the holocaust, but I think our actions since then hurt more than help. Giveaways beget a sense of entitlement.
Posts: 5462 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Blayne Bradley
unregistered
posted
I think losing alot of their finest Jewish scientific mines is something they German polticians take note of when noone is watching.
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