posted
I hope this link isn't a repost of anything earlier in the thread...
Smithsonian magazine did a feature back in January 2006 on Robert Webster, a leading scientist in the field and "the one who discovered that birds were likely responsible for past flu pandemics," according to the article. Not that Smithsonian is the final authority on scientific information, but considering Webster's level of involvement in the research currently taking place, I find it difficult to disregard his warnings.
I'm not going to hide in the ground because of this threat, but I will stock flu medicines with my other emergency preparations and keep my ears tuned to the news.
Posts: 354 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
The 1918 flu managed to jump the species barrier. Genetic studies seem to indicate that it also came from birds. Additionally, flu pandemics really aren't a rare event. Historically, there have been several -- there was also a pandemic in 1890 -- and there were milder pandemics (such as the one in 1957). It has happened before, and it will happen again. It might not be now, and it might not be H5N1, but it will happen eventually.
Additionally, our advanced medicine probably won't save us. Our health care system is already stretched pretty thin. We don't have extra resources, and we won't be able to care for all the people who get sick. The only way modern technology will help us is if we get a vaccine made and stockpiled before the pandemic hits. Otherwise, I suspect we will be on our own.
Which is not to say that I think we should be panicking. You should have food and water to last a few months, but it's a good idea to have that around anyway. Wash your hands and practice good hygiene -- again, good to do in any case. And yes, I think we need to be putting pressure on the government and our communities to be ready for something like this. Dwelling on it, however, isn't going to help.
Posts: 3546 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
For the record, that article is bunk. Not only is this NOT the most deadly disease in the world, it isn't even close. I can name at least 3 with a mortality rate of over 90% easily.
Or I could if I wanted USAMRIID to be very unhappy with me again.
I agree that this type of program is good, but the obvious bias in reporting makes me cringe.
I think an agenda just smacked me in the face........hard.
Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
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DeathofBees, that Smithsonian article was great!
quote: Webster says the world is teetering on the edge of a knife blade. He thinks that H5N1 poses the most serious public health threat since the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, which killed an estimated 40 million to 100 million people worldwide. Though the H5N1 strain has so far shown no signs that it will acquire the ability to transmit easily from person to person—all evidence is that flu victims in Vietnam and Thailand acquired the virus from direct contact with infected poultry—that has provided Webster no comfort. It’s only a matter of time before this virus, as he puts it, “goes off.” He has been saying this for several years. The world is finally taking notice. Elaborate plans are now being created in dozens of countries to deal with a pandemic. In November, President Bush requested that $7.1 billion be set aside to prepare for one, with hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent on further developing a new vaccine that was recently hatched in Webster’s lab.
posted
Great. Even if this peters out, I think the money spent on research is well spent. It will pay off if we ever need it for anything else as well, and we are long overdue for a system to be developed in our country.
Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
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posted
Agreed, Kwea. H5N1 isn't the only possibly dangerous pathogen out there, and it certainly isn't the most deadly by either death toll or mortality rate. Much of what we can do to protect ourselves against bird flu is also useful for protecting ourselves in general, and I highly support those measures. We need our health infrastructure to be in better condition. I also think that we could do well by having a better system for making flu vaccine. After all, a faster means of production will be useful not just in a pandemic, but also when something happens to the annual stockpiles of flu vaccine.
Posts: 3546 | Registered: Jul 2002
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More deaths reported but no definite evidence for human to human transmission. (I'm going to abbreviate as H2H from now on, okay?)
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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quote: Should a strain of avian flu acquire the ability to cause sustained human-to-human transmission, the results could be catastrophic, Longini said. "If not contained, the outbreak could spread worldwide through the global transportation network faster than the appropriate vaccine supply could be made available. That's why it's so important to ascertain whether human-to-human transmission is happening as well as the virulence of the strain." The researchers estimated the secondary-attack rate of the virus in Indonesia — the risk of one infected person passing it to another — to be 29 percent, a level of infectiousness similar to statistical estimates for seasonal influenza A in the United States.
posted
That is really cool! I hope it pans out....and not just because of the implications for Avian Flu, but because of the value of the technique used in making this. What other types of vaccinations will be possible soon.....
Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
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posted
Wow that is so awesome! I want to get that vaccination. I don't want to have the flu ever again. Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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