A vaccine consisting of killed virus combined with an immune system stimulator is being tested, with the results expected in December. If successful, the world's vaccine producing capabilities would essentially quadruple.
In addition to the US order for $100 million worth of vaccine:
Canada, Australia, and Japan have pledged unspecified amounts for vaccine trials
France has pledged to buy enough vaccine for its population
The UK has asked companies to tender bids
Germany has pledged 20 million euros for vaccine trials
Italy has announced it will spend 50 million euros on vaccines, and has announced purchasing contracts with three differrent companies
posted
I think the reason they considered that fact that there could have been more people contracting it a bad thing is because it could invalidate tehir ideas of what the mortality rate is...it could be higher, or lower, the problem is that they don't know.
I doubt it will be a problem, really, for many reason, but that is why they were wondering. Posts: 15082 | Registered: Jul 2001
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Kwea, I'm not sure what you're responding to. I assume it's one of the articles that's been linked to in this thread, but could you quote it or reference it? It may just be that I'm tired, but I'm puzzled.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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Um, the way you avoid disease is to quarantine like crazy. Anyone remember the SARS outbreak? Shut down the airports, cordon off neighborhoods, forbid people to leave their houses, put armed guards at exits and entrances. And yes, I definitely think the government would do this is we were looking at a Pandemic.
The book many of you may be remembering is Connie Willis' Doomsday Book. Oh Connie, how I love thee.
How to prepare? Get your yearly flu shots, that resistance rolls over, stay in general good health, and if an outbreak occurs stay away from other people.
As far as a vaccine: Flu vaccine is very specific. Each year the WHO and the CDC and whoever guess what the nest year's flu virus will look like. They sequence it and then it takes several months to produce. Sometimes they guess wrong and the vaccine isn't for the right virus. In the event of a Pandemic, it would be some time before our scientists would be able to produce a vaccine. Then there would be issues of manufacturing and ditribution, not to mention dead or dying scientists, workers, etc.
In order to prevent the outbreak, China and the rest of the Asian countries where bird flu has popped up need to get real about the danger and let the WHO in to do their work. And continue quarantines and mass bird slaughter .
Posts: 471 | Registered: Jul 2005
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Noemon, that's an awesome article in New Scientist. I'm so glad to hear that something is finally being done. I only hope it's in time.
Samarkand, quarantine is shown in computer models to be effective only in very early phases of outbreaks of human-to-human (H2H) transmissible strains. Once the virus gains a decent foothold in a population, it's inevitable that it will travel around the globe within weeks to months. However, pre-vaccination of the whole population, plus quarantine in those places where H2H outbreaks first occur (if caught very early) is shown to be effective at supressing outbreaks.
Mass slaughter of infected bird populations has waned in effectiveness as a containment tool. The virus is endemic now in wild bird populations, and is found in asymptomatic pigs and domestic ducks. Basically, we're past the stage where mass slaughter can help much. Focus has changed to mass vaccination of domestic birds.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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17 People have bird flu in Indonesia right now, but as far as they can tell, they all got it from birds in the zoo. They claim there's still no good evidence for much human to human transmission, for which I am grateful. I would feel we'd collectively dodged a bullet if it doesn't happen some time this winter, though. Pray that it does not.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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Yeah, I read about the people in Indonesia. ::winces::
Any particular reason for the winter timeframe for an outbreak, or is it just a feeling? I don't have much of a feel at all for when it'll happen.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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I've been wondering what will happen if the outbreak occurs while I'm still at college, living in the dorm. This is a building with maybe 300 people, and the air is circulated from room to room. If someone gets the flu, we will all get it. I guess that the school would probably shut down, and maybe I can stay at a friend's house until my parents can come to get me (taking a plane home would probably be a bad idea).
Posts: 3546 | Registered: Jul 2002
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quote:Originally posted by Noemon: More good news! Well, part of this is just an expansion of the last article I linked to, but still, it's heartening stuff!
A vaccine consisting of killed virus combined with an immune system stimulator is being tested, with the results expected in December. If successful, the world's vaccine producing capabilities would essentially quadruple.
In addition to the US order for $100 million worth of vaccine:
Canada, Australia, and Japan have pledged unspecified amounts for vaccine trials
France has pledged to buy enough vaccine for its population
The UK has asked companies to tender bids
Germany has pledged 20 million euros for vaccine trials
Italy has announced it will spend 50 million euros on vaccines, and has announced purchasing contracts with three differrent companies
On the other hand, no flu virus is capable of keeping everyone from catching the flu. Many people actually catch the flu from the vaccines (my father quit taking them once he got out of the military because they always made him sick). Since the virus also randomly mutates once inside humans, the people that do catch it could still spread it, even to people who may have had the vaccines.
Even if the vaccine worked perfectly, there would still be problems, because the government would have a hard time forcing people to get the vaccine. It's not like with kids before they go to school, (and because of freedom of religion laws some people can get around required school immunizations) they can't just show up and require you to take medication. Which means, no matter how much they encourage it, there will be people who refuse to go. It's been long enough since the last pandemic that there hasn't been one in my lifetime. Many young people won't think that it's as big a problem as it could be, and unless the government offers free flu shots there are many who cannot afford them.
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posted
If it is a killed virus vaccine then you can't catch the flu from it. Because it is DEAD. I'm not quite sure what your point is about mutations.
Posts: 1014 | Registered: Jul 2005
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Flu season is in the wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere. I don't think anyone knows for sure why. There are various theories.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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Well, it'll help you to avoid getting sick from the flu that it's designed to prevent against. If you were living in an area where birds carrying H5N1 were present it would be a good idea to get the shot, as you would be doing something to remove yourself as an incubation ground in which a human to human transmissible flu could swap genes with H5N1.
But in terms of protecting you from a human to human transmissible H5N1 variant? Nah, won't do you much good.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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posted
So I was watching the news and they showed pictures of birds in Turkey with the virus, and the birds were turkeys . . . and then I didn't know if it was found in Turkey the country or turkey the bird, or maybe both. It was traumatizing.
Posts: 471 | Registered: Jul 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Samarkand: So I was watching the news and they showed pictures of birds in Turkey with the virus, and the birds were turkeys . . . and then I didn't know if it was found in Turkey the country or turkey the bird, or maybe both. It was traumatizing.
That was awesome!
Scientific American's new issue (November) has an article "Preparing for a Pandemic, Are we ready?" It's not up online yet, and I don't know if it will be available to the public when it is, but I thought I would quote some interesting bits.
"The lethargic, poorly coordinated and undersized response [to Katrina] raises concerns about how nations would cope with a much larger and more lethal kind of natural disaster that scientists warn will occur, possibly soon: a pandemic of influenza. The threat of a flu pandemic is more ominous, and its parallels to Katrina more apt, than it might first seem. The routine seasonal upsurges of flu and of hurricanes engender a familiarity that easily leads to complacency and inadequate preparations for the "big one" that experts admonish is sure to come."
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"Epidemiologists have warned that the next pandemic could sicken one in every three people on the planet, hospitalize many of those, and kill tens to hundreds of millions. The disease would spare no nation, race or income group. There would be no certain way to avoid infection."
"Flu shots matched to the new virus will arrive too late to prevent or slow the early stages of a pandemic, but rapid response with antiviral drugs might contain an emerging flu strain at its source temporarily, buying time for international preparations."
"In many places, drug supplies and other health resources will be overwhelmed."
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"The experts recommended surgical masks for flu patients and health workers exposed to those patients. For the healthy, hand washing offers more protection than wearing masks in public, because poeple can be exposed to the virus at home, at work and by touching contraminated surfaces, including the surface of a mask."
Sounds like to me that masks AND frequent handwashing are both good ideas during a pandemic, since 1) we don't know who is infected and contagious but not showing symptoms yet, and 2) if it's a good idea for health workers exposed to patients then it must be a good idea for anyone potentially exposed to anyone sick, in other words, anyone in public during an outbreak.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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"Because no one would have immunity to a new strain, they expect 50 percent of the population to be infected by the virus. Depending on its virulence, between one third and two thirds of those people will become sick, yielding a clinical attack rate of 15 to 35 percent of the whole population."
"No government is ready now. In the US ... Trust for America's Health (TFAH) esitmates that a severe pandemic virus ... could translate into 4.7 million Americans needing hospitalizations. ... The country currently has fewer than one million staffed hospital beds."
"Many of the most severe illnesses and deaths from H5N1 infection have been among previously healthy young adults and children."
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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"Nothing about the H5N1 virus in its current form offers reason to hope that it would produce a wimpy pandemic, according to Frederick G. Hayden, a University of Virginia virologist who is advising WHO on treating avian flu victims. "Unless this virus changes dramatically in pathogenicity," he asserts, "we will be confronted with a very lethal strain.""
"Fatality rates in diagnosed H5N1 victims are running about 50 percent. Even if that fell to 5 percent as the virus traded virulence for transmissibility among people, Hayden warns, "It would still represent a death rate double [that of] 1918, and that's despite modern technologies like antibiotics and ventilators.""
""We have only one enemy," CDC director Gerberding has said repeatedly, "and that is complacency.""
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
It is, but it'll likely get them some stiff fines. Countries which ignore patents are generally frowned upon in groups like the WTO.
I suspect, though, that this isn't so much an objection to the practice, but an objection to the lack of clarity in such a practice. The uncertainty it introduces into markets is significant for anyone who makes a drug treating even moderately serious illnesses. I think it could be transformed into a more acceptable action by the adoption of well-defined guidelines for doing so.
Posts: 15770 | Registered: Dec 2001
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Actually, there is an internationally recognized exception to drug patent monopolies for the case of a national health emergency.
Posts: 8501 | Registered: Jul 2001
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And Hoffman-LaRoche is already in negotiations with various drug companies around the world inregards to royalty payments in exchange for use of their patent. Considering that it takes ~6months for a batch of Tamiflu to be processed from start-to-finish -- even with machinery, proper manufacturing&separation techniques, and experienced technicians already in place -- there should be more than enough time for the Taiwanese to secure a royalty agreement before it is even possible for their first pills to be sold. I'd be surprised if the entirety of the manufacturing machinery could be properly assembled&tested in 6months.
posted
I agree that it's a good idea. I wish every pharmacy company in the US would do the same. Then there might be a chance we would have enough. Seriously, Roche should invoke some extraordinary circumstances in this case and waive their patent rights.
Imagine being the CEO or other executive who could have made that choice, after about 100 million people have died because you didn't. That would suck.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
It was Hoffman-LaRoche's idea to share their patent, with good reasons. They can't produce enough of Tamiflu to meet demand. And can't meet the deadline for new manufacturing plant capacity in a morally timely manner to fulfill current demand. Nor can they economicly justify the risk of building new manufacturing facilities based on projecting the unprecedented current demand into the future.
By creating Tamiflu manufacturing partnerships, Hoffman-LaRoche can reasonably expect to be able to meet current demand within the near future, while minimizing their own financial exposure. And incidentally, dodge the political lynching sure to come should H5N1 start killing large numbers of people before there is an abundant supply of their drug available.
I am trying not to get extremely panicky about this, so if anyone has some good "calm down, silly" advice, I am all for it!
Posts: 10890 | Registered: May 2003
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Calm down, silly. One is as likely to die of a newly virulent strain of Ebola as of BirdFlu. And even more likely to die of a flu that hasn't been seen yet. And yet even more likely to die of a flu that "A lot of that has been going around." already.
Personally, I expect to be taken out by an SUV driver who hates bicyclists for not wasting enough gasoline.
Posts: 8501 | Registered: Jul 2001
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Actually, the odds of dying are closer to 1 out of 1. Eventually. I'm still gonna try to beat the odds though.
The problem is that I haven't seen anything even vaguely scientific which makes H5N1 more than marginally more likely to mutate into human-to-human infectivity which would lead to an especially deadly pandemic than other diseases known. Or unknown, like SARS popping up in China from outta nowhere.
posted
Do you mean the odds of dying from it once you get it, or the odds of getting it? Or, dare i ask...both?
My husband has been freaking me out with info lately. One of the things "they" are saying is that it will cause a major depression, as no one will go to work, etc.
Posts: 10890 | Registered: May 2003
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I'm not going to bother worrying about this... It'll just make me sick. I'll try not to get sick, but if I do get sick, I'll die no matter what.. so there's really no reason to get all stressed out.. Either I die or I don't. That's how it is all the time anyway.
Posts: 4816 | Registered: Apr 2003
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"Either I die or I don't. That's how it is all the time anyway.
Except it isn't really as easy as all that, Ryuko, though you might want it to be.
Almost dying is not very fun, and it makes you realize that dying is not so hot itself. Add to that the fact that, in the case of a pandemic, you would most likely watch your children die(if you have them) and everyone else you know, and it is not as easily discounted(to me) as regular old "everyone dies eventually" kind of dying.
Posts: 10890 | Registered: May 2003
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quote: The problem is that I haven't seen anything even vaguely scientific which makes H5N1 more than marginally more likely to mutate into human-to-human infectivity which would lead to an especially deadly pandemic than other diseases known. Or unknown, like SARS popping up in China from outta nowhere.
aspectre, have you read about reassortment? The WHO and CDC both disagree with your assessment. The last I saw, they put the chances of an H5N1 pandemic at 50%.
I was relieved when it was found that the 1918 flu strain that killed so many people had mutated directly from a bird flu strain, without making use of reassortment. They said several mutations were required to produce a strain that would infect humans readily.
But with reassortment, all it takes is one person or pig to be sick with two types of flu at once, a human flu and H5N1, for every possibly reassortment of the 8 influenza genes to occur in their cells. The chances of producing a strain that's easily human to human transmissible, and also extremely virulent, go way way up.
H5N1 is much more dangerous than Ebola, because influenza travels through the air, influenza pandemics have occurred at intervals throughout human history, and once the virus gets a good foothold, it invariably sweeps through the entire world. None of that is true for Ebola.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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According to this timeline, we're at Phase 3, "Pandemic Alert." There have been human infections of a new sub-type, but no human to human transfers.
Posts: 1813 | Registered: Apr 2001
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posted
IF the bird flu mutates and is therefore transmitted human to human, and IF iti gets to the USA (which is highly likely) there is little you can do other than be smart. Avoid those who are sick, take care of yourself, wash your hands often, stay away from cheap pizza and by all means NO buttered popcorn at the theaters!
Seriously, to put this in perspective, the state of NC estimates that 5,600 citizens will die from bird flu. While that is staggering, it is only eclipsed by the fact that annually, 10,000 NC citizens die from tobacco related illness (i.e. cancer).
I personally want to die from an overdose of greasy hanburgers and fries after dieting for the last 10 years.
Got any chicken?
Posts: 56 | Registered: May 2005
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Tstorm, some people think we're in stage 4.
Phase 4 : Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.
There are 3 or 4 cases highly suggestive of human to human transmission, cases where there was no known contact with birds at all. Two hospital workers got it in a hospital that was treating bird flu patients. Also the mother of one of the children who died apparently caught it from her child. They are limited cases of spread that seem to match the criterion for stage 4, though the CDC is indeed saying we're only in stage 3. I'm not sure why, since all authorities do admit there seems to be no other explanation for a few of the cases.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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Now that I've already made certain information readily available to my family, I feel I can share with you all some disheartening information about the bird flu.
The father of one of my best friends has been working under the direction of the U.S. government researching H5N1 for a while now, and he recently told his closest friends and family to start stockpiling Tamiflu, because the outbreak was not only likely, the U.S. government is treating it as imminent. Apparently the appropriate people in the white house have already secured a sufficient supply for the people they feel need it most (read: the politicians and their families). Bush's entire administration is scared out of their minds over the very real, very serious possibility that H5N1 will become transmittable from human to human.
Don't delay. Get your drugs now. Talk to your physicians about writing you a prescription to help offset the cost.
Posts: 4313 | Registered: Sep 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Elizabeth: "Either I die or I don't. That's how it is all the time anyway.
Except it isn't really as easy as all that, Ryuko, though you might want it to be.
Almost dying is not very fun, and it makes you realize that dying is not so hot itself. Add to that the fact that, in the case of a pandemic, you would most likely watch your children die(if you have them) and everyone else you know, and it is not as easily discounted(to me) as regular old "everyone dies eventually" kind of dying.
That's not really what I meant to say. I was just saying that since I can't do anything about the possibility of a pandemic or whatever, and there's nothing beyond what I always do that I can do about myself getting sick, I shouldn't get sick with worrying about it. I'm almost positive that if I did get this flu I would die, because of how weak my lungs are and my health in general...
I wasn't even talking (or thinking) about the possibility of my family getting sick, which would be the worst thing to happen because I wouldn't be able to go be with them...
Posts: 4816 | Registered: Apr 2003
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erosomniac, everyone I know who knows anything about it is taking it very, very seriously. It's not inevitable, by any means, but it's certainly quite possible.
What IS inevitable is that eventually we will have another flu pandemic. Scientists don't understand yet exactly what makes a strain turn into a deadly pandemic strain. But nothing we DO know would lead us to believe this particular flu strain can't become one. If it does, then unless we just get fabulously lucky, it will be a very deadly one.
Posts: 6246 | Registered: Aug 2004
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quote:Apparently the appropriate people in the white house have already secured a sufficient supply for the people they feel need it most (read: the politicians and their families). Bush's entire administration is scared out of their minds over the very real, very serious possibility that H5N1 will become transmittable from human to human.
Your first sentence makes sense. Of course they are being careful and thinking ahead. Your second sentence just sounds like panicky guesswork. You can't know any of that is true.
Posts: 1014 | Registered: Jul 2005
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Tatiana: Agreed, I just thought I'd pass along some information to contribute to the speculation.
Theaca: Despite what you may think, it is not panicky guesswork. I tried to make it not sound like fear mongering either. And you're right, I don't know if any of it's true. But a person whom I trust and is in a position to confirm that yes, it IS true, told me that two months ago was the time to prepare, and now it may be too late. I simply passed on a message: you don't have to believe it. If you choose to ignore it and the warnings of everyone else who has contributed to this thread, well, be my guest. I'd personally rather pay $140 for some Tamiflu on the (increasingly likely) chance that I'll need it than debate the validity of some information about the likelihood of a life-threatening pandemic. I'm hoping you feel that way about your own life, and your family.
Posts: 4313 | Registered: Sep 2004
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