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Author Topic: Intelligent conversation about "Shadow of the Hegemon"
youngnapoleon
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I would like to have something of a disclaimer paragraph before I go off on my rant. I mean no offense to Mr. Card, his intelligence, or his writing in this post. I am simply looking for some disscussion about Shadow of the Hegemon. I do not intend for this to be a "troll" post. I apologize if this post is not appropriate for the website, since it deals with mostly geo-political and military matters. My info comes from GlobalSecurity.com, GlobalFirepower.com, and the CIA world factbook, and assumes that the future will have a proportionate relationship to the modern day.

I recently finished Shadow of the Hegemon and I had some doubts about the plausibility of the war in southeast Asia. I personally don't think even had the combined Thai and Burmese used mobile guerrila tactics against a static Indian army, they could have beaten India.Most importantly, the Indian Navy was not factored into the war. Thailand relies heavily on imports and exports from the sea. Over half of Thailand's GDP comes from exports. Thailand today imports about 1,700,000 bbls per day in peacetime, making it the 15th largest importer of oil in the world. Thailand has a merchant marine of 398, the 25th largest in the world.

The balance of naval power favors India. The Thai/Burmese (Who will be refered to as "the allies" now.) have combined around 170 ships, most importantly 1 carrier and no submarines of any sort. India has 143 total units, 1 carrier (although I assume since Indian industry is larger than that of either of the allies, it will outnumber them in carriers by 2170 A.D.), and importantly 18 submarines, 4 of them nuclear. In WW1 and WW2, the german U-boats posed a serious danger to the combined naval forces of the U.S. and U.K. , and they were far inferior to modern nuclear submarines.

If India declared an unrestricted blockade against the allies, they (more importantly Thailand than Burma) might collapse in a couple weeks. Since the Indian Air Force is bigger than the combined Air Forces of the allies, and due to the larger GDP of India, also qualitively superior, I think that in reality the Indians would have air superiority, contrary to what happens in the book. While my understanding of naval power is somewhat lacking, I know that surface ships are outweighed easily by submarines and carriers. The Indian navy would commence total slaughter on the allied forces.

With naval and air superiority, a blockade would be easily sucessful, since India needs not worry about international opinon. If Thailand lost such a significant portion of it's GDP, reserves would quickly dry up and the currency and economy would plummet. There would be in all likelyhood anger at the Thai government, and a large faction supporting peace terms with India. With a blockade cutting off oil, the Thai armed forces would face a supply crisis , and thus be unable to fight.

With naval and air superiority, the Indian MACROS (somewhat similar to the Rangers in the U.S. , although they are amhipbious.) could launch a raid on Bangkok or one of the Thai ports. This would undoubtebly raise support for peace terms with India. At this point, I think that Thailand would have no chance whatsoever, unless they had devloped nukes by 2170, and India would turn Thailand unto a heap of smoldering nuclear rubble if they tried. I am finished for now, but I will post again tommorow, about China's invasion.

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TomDavidson
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Bear in mind that the book takes place in the future, after two major wars against alien enemies, at least one worldwide economic collapse, and the resurgence of a Soviet bloc.

In other words: you have to look for internal consistency, not try to evaluate it based on present-day capabilities.

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youngnapoleon
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quote:
Originally posted by TomDavidson:
Bear in mind that the book takes place in the future, after two major wars against alien enemies, at least one worldwide economic collapse, and the resurgence of a Soviet bloc.

In other words: you have to look for internal consistency, not try to evaluate it based on present-day capabilities.

This is true, but the Indian Navy was not taken into account at all, and I think for the reasons I outlined, it would have been decisive. Thailand would still need oil imports, and India would still have a better navy in all likelyhood. When I read the book, I often thought the nations of the world were often similar to the present day, unless diffrences were outlined.
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TomDavidson
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quote:
This is true, but the Indian Navy was not taken into account at all, and I think for the reasons I outlined, it would have been decisive.
Possibly. Or possibly the entire Indian Navy was wiped out by a resurgent Chad over a hundred years before the events of the novel. Who knows?
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Mucus
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quote:
Originally posted by youngnapoleon:
... This is true, but the Indian Navy was not taken into account at all, and I think for the reasons I outlined, it would have been decisive.

Just think of it as a classic story-telling device, a triumph of the underdog story, having more to do with what the author wants to happen in the story to trigger certain emotions rather than a realistic appraisal of what would really happen.
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youngnapoleon
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Hmm, good point. However, there is still something else I think that probably wouldn't happen: China's invasion of soth east Asia. While I am willing to be somewhat lenient here, since the book was written before the second gulf war or the invasion of Afganistan, and in the last chapter Peter mentions something about sabotage. However, China would have to occupy over 4.5 million square kilometers of land, with half the worlds total population according to the book. I think the Chinese general staff could have studied the campaigns of the British against the I.R.A., the Spanish against the Basques, etc. etc. and would have realised that the conquest of so many people would be impossible. With such a brutal occupation, resentment of China would be high, and Chinese forces would be spread thin. Iraq, a country of much smaller size and poulation, with few big cities and no mountains, jungles, or terrain suitable for guerrila operations is giving the U.S., with a concillatory policy, heaps of trouble. Thailand, India, and Burma are full of jungles, mountains, and big cities, perfect terrain for guerrilas and terrorists. I find it highly unlikely China would even consider an invasion.

[ July 17, 2010, 02:25 PM: Message edited by: youngnapoleon ]

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Mucus
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*shrug* An underdog needs a big villain. Card could hardly have depicted the plucky insurgency and a resurgent Muslim force defeating an American invasion, so that leaves Russia and China really.

Again, the storyline is dictated more by what Card needs to happen then anything realistic. Consider that Pastwatch has things work out between central America and Europe by introducing Christianity to the central Americans.

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youngnapoleon
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Even still, the book needs to be somewhat coherent in the geo-political events.
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TomDavidson
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Finish that sentence by saying "...to remain believable to me and preserve my suspension of disbelief," and I'll agree with you completely.
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Craig Childs
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I have to agree with Youngnapolean.

To Tom's point - yes, the books take place far into the future, but SotH clearly intends that most of the countries/societies that take place in the conflict, closely resemble the countries/societies that exist today in the early 2000's. The whole book is, as OSC describes, an elaborate game of Risk. The chinese, Indians, Thai, Americans, etc. are supposed to closely resemble those same cultures today.

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Shawshank
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Same culture doesn't mean 'same exact geopolitical position' though. There's also some pretty large departures- like the fact that Mecca had a nuclear warhead dropped on it.

And Mucus: do you really think that things would have worked out in the early 1500s between Europe and Central America if they had kept the same Aztec Gods? It seems like introducing them to some kind of pseudo-Christianity was a fantastic way of saving some bloodshed.

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Wingracer
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One thing to remember, while the countries and cultures are somewhat similar, it still takes place way in the future in a much more technically sophisticated setting. I doubt that a world with interstellar space flight and instantaneous communications would still be relying on oil for its economy. That one change alone would totally change the balance of power throughout the world.

Just look at our world over 100 years ago. It's still pretty similar to what we have today yet there were countries then that seemed unbeatable that are no longer major players (some don't even exist anymore) and small time players that could take on most anyone today.

A century ago, what major power would have feared China and North Korea?

[ July 20, 2010, 12:27 PM: Message edited by: Wingracer ]

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Mucus
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quote:
Originally posted by Shawshank:
... do you really think that things would have worked out in the early 1500s between Europe and Central America if they had kept the same Aztec Gods?

I think you've got me backwards. I find it highly unlikely things could have worked out as nicely as depicted, either way.
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youngnapoleon
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quote:
Originally posted by Wingracer:
One thing to remember, while the countries and cultures are somewhat similar, it still takes place way in the future in a much more technically sophisticated setting. I doubt that a world with interstellar space flight and instantaneous communications would still be relying on oil for its economy. That one change alone would totally change the balance of power throughout the world.

Just look at our world over 100 years ago. It's still pretty similar to what we have today yet there were countries then that seemed unbeatable that are no longer major players (some don't even exist anymore) and small time players that could take on most anyone today.

A century ago, what major power would have feared China and North Korea?

Mr. Card does not deal with technological things in the book. I think with everyone focusing on the Buggers, there would be little weapons research on Earth, with everyone unifed. I do not remeber anything in the OSC books I have read (Ender's Game, Speaker of the Dead, Shadow of the Hegemon) about fuel sources. Mr. Card usually retains similarity in general with modern day nations. The Indian Army faced a "supply crisis" (of whatever futuristic supplies they use), so I assume the Thai could face a similar problem from a blockade.

P.S. Napoleon said that China was a "sleeping giant", in fact, 200 years ago. No major power fears NK.

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Wingracer
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quote:

No major power fears NK. [/QB]

Really? Then why are we about to stage a massive naval training exercise with South Korea in the area? We may even be sending a carrier. China and NK aren't too happy about it. We certainly aren't doing it to foster good will.
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Wingracer
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quote:
Mr. Card does not deal with technological things in the book.
No explanation should be required to realize that oil doesn't get a space ship to another star. There is no way to launch the kind of major interstellar military operation depicted in the books without some form of cheap energy on a massive scale. Any such technology will have major implications for world economies far beyond merely military applications.
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youngnapoleon
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quote:
Originally posted by Wingracer:
quote:

No major power fears NK.

Really? Then why are we about to stage a massive naval training exercise with South Korea in the area? We may even be sending a carrier. China and NK aren't too happy about it. We certainly aren't doing it to foster good will. [/QB]
Because of China. NK can't touch the U.S., or Taiwan, or Japan, or China, since it is a country in shambles.
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youngnapoleon
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quote:
Originally posted by Wingracer:
quote:
Mr. Card does not deal with technological things in the book.
No explanation should be required to realize that oil doesn't get a space ship to another star. There is no way to launch the kind of major interstellar military operation depicted in the books without some form of cheap energy on a massive scale. Any such technology will have major implications for world economies far beyond merely military applications.
It doesn't matter what they use!! India ran out of it in the book, and anyway if you read the OP you would realize that a blockade would cut off more than just fuel. Exports, which will probably still be important economically to Thailand, would stop. If goods are exported by air, naval air will shoot them down. I think it is safe to say that Thailand will need to import supplies of some sort, which can be sunk by a blockade.
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Scott R
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quote:
I think with everyone focusing on the Buggers, there would be little weapons research on Earth, with everyone unifed.
I'm not sure how you justify this opinion.

Everyone is focusing on the war effort with the buggers, an enemy who is mysterious, inhuman, and more advanced. The funding for R&D is going to be astronomical.

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youngnapoleon
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quote:
Originally posted by Scott R:
quote:
I think with everyone focusing on the Buggers, there would be little weapons research on Earth, with everyone unifed.
I'm not sure how you justify this opinion.

Everyone is focusing on the war effort with the buggers, an enemy who is mysterious, inhuman, and more advanced. The funding for R&D is going to be astronomical.

I think I worded my sentence poorly. What I was saying is that since the wars were fought in space, most research wouldn't go to earthly weapons, and since presumably no wars were fought on earth duing the wars with the buggers, little funds would have been given to the armed forces on earth.
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Rawrain
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quote:
Originally posted by youngnapoleon:
quote:
Originally posted by Wingracer:
quote:
Mr. Card does not deal with technological things in the book.
No explanation should be required to realize that oil doesn't get a space ship to another star. There is no way to launch the kind of major interstellar military operation depicted in the books without some form of cheap energy on a massive scale. Any such technology will have major implications for world economies far beyond merely military applications.
It doesn't matter what they use!! India ran out of it in the book, and anyway if you read the OP you would realize that a blockade would cut off more than just fuel. Exports, which will probably still be important economically to Thailand, would stop. If goods are exported by air, naval air will shoot them down. I think it is safe to say that Thailand will need to import supplies of some sort, which can be sunk by a blockade.
Only two (technological) things I can think of were learned from the buggers, that would be Near-Lightspeed Travel (NLT) and the Ansible and both of those were explained rather fully.

From these things NLT and weapons made from the same couldn't be used on a planet, I do suppose the Disruptor Barrier could be used on Earth, but it's only much good as a fence and I doubt it existed much before Xenocide.

The supply line, was food and munition there was little worry about running out of fuel as fuel is never mentioned!
(sorry for my latecoming and badly written sentences, it's just how I am /: )

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