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Author Topic: Ice Age worries
plaid
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The Pentagon has been studying possibilities of a rapid ice age hitting the eastern U.S. and western Europe.

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/technology/articles/0,15114,582584,00.html

Fortune, Feb 9, 2004

CLIMATE COLLAPSE: The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare
By David Stipp

quote:
Climate researchers began getting seriously concerned about it a decade ago, after studying temperature indicators embedded in ancient layers of Arctic ice. The data show that a number of dramatic shifts in average temperature took place in the past with shocking speed—in some cases, just a few years.

The case for angst was buttressed by a theory regarded as the most likely explanation for the abrupt changes. The eastern U.S. and northern Europe, it seems, are warmed by a huge Atlantic Ocean current that flows north from the tropics—that's why Britain, at Labrador's latitude, is relatively temperate. Pumping out warm, moist air, this "great conveyor" current gets cooler and denser as it moves north. That causes the current to sink in the North Atlantic, where it heads south again in the ocean depths. The sinking process draws more water from the south, keeping the roughly circular current on the go.

But when the climate warms, according to the theory, fresh water from melting Arctic glaciers flows into the North Atlantic, lowering the current's salinity—and its density and tendency to sink. A warmer climate also increases rainfall and runoff into the current, further lowering its saltiness. As a result, the conveyor loses its main motive force and can rapidly collapse, turning off the huge heat pump and altering the climate over much of the Northern Hemisphere.

Scientists aren't sure what caused the warming that triggered such collapses in the remote past. (Clearly it wasn't humans and their factories.) But the data from Arctic ice and other sources suggest the atmospheric changes that preceded earlier collapses were dismayingly similar to today's global warming. As the Ice Age began drawing to a close about 13,000 years ago, for example, temperatures in Greenland rose to levels near those of recent decades. Then they abruptly plunged as the conveyor apparently shut down, ushering in the "Younger Dryas" period, a 1,300-year reversion to ice-age conditions. (A dryas is an Arctic flower that flourished in Europe at the time.)

More about the conveyor belt:

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0130-11.htm

quote:
The Great Conveyor Belt, while shaped by the Coriolis effect of the Earth's rotation, is mostly driven by the greater force created by differences in water temperatures and salinity. The North Atlantic Ocean is saltier and colder than the Pacific, the result of it being so much smaller and locked into place by the Northern and Southern American Hemispheres on the west and Europe and Africa on the east.

As a result, the warm water of the Great Conveyor Belt evaporates out of the North Atlantic leaving behind saltier waters, and the cold continental winds off the northern parts of North America cool the waters. Salty, cool waters settle to the bottom of the sea, most at a point a few hundred kilometers south of the southern tip of Greenland, producing a whirlpool of falling water that's 5 to 10 miles across. While the whirlpool rarely breaks the surface, during certain times of year it does produce an indentation and current in the ocean that can tilt ships and be seen from space (and may be what we see on the maps of ancient mariners).

This falling column of cold, salt-laden water pours itself to the bottom of the Atlantic, where it forms an undersea river forty times larger than all the rivers on land combined, flowing south down to and around the southern tip of Africa, where it finally reaches the Pacific. Amazingly, the water is so deep and so dense (because of its cold and salinity) that it often doesn't surface in the Pacific for as much as a thousand years after it first sank in the North Atlantic off the coast of Greenland.

The out-flowing undersea river of cold, salty water makes the level of the Atlantic slightly lower than that of the Pacific, drawing in a strong surface current of warm, fresher water from the Pacific to replace the outflow of the undersea river. This warmer, fresher water slides up through the South Atlantic, loops around North America where it's known as the Gulf Stream, and ends up off the coast of Europe. By the time it arrives near Greenland, it's cooled off and evaporated enough water to become cold and salty and sink to the ocean floor, providing a continuous feed for that deep-sea river flowing to the Pacific.

These two flows - warm, fresher water in from the Pacific, which then grows salty and cools and sinks to form an exiting deep sea river - are known as the Great Conveyor Belt.

Ack.

I don't know how much to worry about an ice age in particular... though I do think that we humans are messing around with the planet in very stupid ways. I don't know if it's Global Warming or Global Freezing, I prefer to call it Global F***-up...

Maybe this'll keep Steven King from retiring...

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slacker
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I saw a show about this one time. Interesting stuff.

I remember how they said that it had once put Europe into a mini Ice Age around the 15th century (give or take 200 years - I can't remember).

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Nick
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This a natural occurence. We had nothing to do with it.
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ak
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Ice Ages tend to come at rougly 10,000 year intervals, or have recently, and one is about due now. I personally am hoping all the greenhouse gases we are pumping into the atmosphere will short circuit this one and leave us the same. I don't have a lot of confidence in that hope, but it's something to hope for, at least.

Climate systems seem to be inherently unstable. There's really not much we can do about that at this point. We are a long way from being able to deliberately control the climate in the direction we want it to go. What affect we do have for the time being is just unintentional side effects of our other activities, which aren't easy for us to change.

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ak
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But did you guys hear anything about the possibility that the earth's magnetic field is about to do a flip to the other pole? These are frequent in geological history, though there's never been one in recorded human history. They happen quite rapidly, from what we can tell from the geologic record. If one happens to us now, there may be a time when compasses don't work at all (if the earth's magnetic field dies down briefly) before it happens that all the worlds compasses would start pointing south instead of north. (The end that's marked north would now point south and vice versa.)

Is that any big deal? Would there be any major problems even if compasses quit working altogether forever? I am pretty sure that pracitally nobody navigates with magnetic compasses anymore. I can imagine there might be a few cultures in isolated primitive conditions that may be affected. Are there? I mean GPS devices are so cheap, and even older airplanes use radio navigation from known broadcasting points, from what I understand. So I can't think of anything that would be affected.

Populations of animals who navigate magnetically for migration purposes might go extinct. That would be sad. But I can't know of any human activities that would be terribly affected. Can anyone?

[ February 11, 2004, 02:58 AM: Message edited by: ak ]

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Annie
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*thinks*.... hmmm.... Santa?
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Noemon
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Actually, Anne Kate, I was reading about that awhile back, and it's possible that the consequences would be fairly dire (at least according to the article I read). Something about the Earth's magnetic field protecting the Earth from cosmic rays, and that field faltering before it flips, briefly (in geologic terms) exposing the surface of the planet.

The magnetic field is currently weakening, I seem to remember from the same article.

So, I guess the real question is this:

Would you rather have Reed Richard's, Johnny Storm's, Sue Richard's, or Ben Grim's superpowers?

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PSI Teleport
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I prefer to bask in the hope that Tucson will do what it always does....remain at 150 degrees.
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imogen
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Actually, the scientific community is very undecided as to how a magentic pole reversal would affect the world.

Throughout my physics degree, I was taught it would have a profound impact (to the point of catastrophic) - and this view is supported by this paper. (sorry, only the summary is free). Other papers supporting this view: here, here - but more on whether the poles will flip, rather than the effect

Other sources, on the other hand, see it only as a nuisance to compasses, and not much more.
USA Today says it wouldn't affect our world much. However, they quote two sources for this: one which is the link above, and the other conludes that we just don't know enough to predict what will happen.

What I remember about physics (not much!) is the point isn't that we won't be able to find North anymore, but rather that when the poles flip, the electromagnetic field is altered. The EM field works on a global scale: so if the poles flip it will be drastically altered and those appliances built to work on an EM field will be affected.

However, I also remember being taught that any magnetic pole reversal wasn't due for a while (in physicist's terms, read tens of thousands of years)... physicists, help me out??

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pooka
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Uh... I saw "The Core". [Blushing]

I mentioned this recently for some reason. I guess it was in some argument about evolution. Yeah, that was it. I was saying a polar shift might have been what wiped out the dinosaurs, and not an asteroid. So, on the darker end of the spectrum is that possibility.

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imogen
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Pooka, I think that theory is probably the effect of what Noemon was referring to. If the poles did shift, and the EM field was weakened to a degree to let in the current solar energy, that would be enough to kill us (and would have been enough to kill the dinosaurs).

[Edit: grammer]

[ February 11, 2004, 11:07 AM: Message edited by: imogen ]

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pooka
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Oh, I thought he was saying we would become mutants. [Razz] And here I've been keeping the microwave door closed for nothing.
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imogen
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Oh no, pooka, you've got it all wrong. Microwaves have nothing to do with EM fields.

It's just, if you keep the door open, the aliens come.

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ak
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Well, how much radiation does the earth's magnetic field actually protect us from, and how much does it just channel toward the north and south poles giving rise to the auroras? I mean, if being right beneath the northern lights doesn't make people mutate too badly (though a few of those far northerners have made me wonder), then why would the same radiation spread out evenly over the whole earth be a problem?

And as far as I know, no appliances use the earth's magnetic field in their function, except for compasses. Boy scouts doing orienteering might be affected, I guess. They'll all just have to buy gps systems, which aren't that expensive, or navigate by the sun and stars.

Does the earth's magnetic field actually deflect any radiation away from the earth entirely? I didn't think it did.

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Tstorm
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I always thought it was the VanAllen Radiation Belts that protected the earth from extreme solar radiation. Isn't there an official Hatrack Physicist?
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rivka
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They do; they're part of the magnetosphere.

Linky

Another

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Maccabeus
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If the poles have really flipped all that often, I can't see why we should fear it. It certainly seems that it was survivable, including for at least some large species, or we wouldn't be here to worry about it.

Would cancer and mutation rates go up? Probably. Some people would likely die. But I don't think we need to worry about a mass global die-off.

As for the Ice Age...haven't there been eras in which Earth was considerably hotter than it is now? The sea level rose--which would no doubt be a problem for coastal cities--but it doesn't sound like the biosphere went to pieces over it as some environmentalists have suggested might happen now.

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