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Author Topic: The October Suprise Is Here!
newfoundlogic
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quote:
CAIRO, Egypt - Osama bin Laden (news - web sites), reading a statement to the American people in a new videotape aired Friday, directly admitted for the first time that he ordered the Sept. 11 attacks and said "the best way to avoid another Manhattan" was to stop threatening Muslims' security.

It was the first footage of the al-Qaida leader to surface in more than a year. The video, broadcast on Al-Jazeera, showed bin Laden with a long gray beard, wearing traditional white robes, a turban and a golden cloak reading from papers in front of a plain, brown curtain.

In Washington, the FBI (news - web sites) and Justice Department (news - web sites) had no immediate assessment of the meaning of the bin Laden tape. Officials said one part of their analysis will be to discern whether there may be hidden messages or clues about a possible future attack against the United States. But they said it was too early to know that yet.

There was no way to determine when the tape was made, although it did refer to next week's presidential elections in the United States.

"We decided to destroy towers in America," bin Laden said, referring to the World Trade Center.

"God knows that it had not occurred to our mind to attack the towers, but after our patience ran out and we saw the injustice and inflexibility of the American-Israeli alliance toward our people in Palestine and Lebanon, this came to my mind," he said.

He accused President Bush (news - web sites) of "misleading" the American people since the 2001 suicide airline hijackings that hit the World Trade Center and the Pentagon (news - web sites).

"Your security is not in the hands of (Democratic candidate John) Kerry or Bush or al-Qaida. Your security is in your own hands," bin Laden said.

"To the U.S. people, my talk is to you about the best way to avoid another disaster," he said. "I tell you: security is an important element of human life and free people do not give up their security."

"If Bush says we hate freedom, let him tell us why we didn't attack Sweden, for example. It is known that those who hate freedom do not have dignified souls, like those of the 19 blessed ones," he said, referring to the 19 hijackers.

"We fought you because we are free .. and want to regain freedom for our nation. As you undermine our security we undermine yours."

The image of bin Laden reading a statement was dramatically different from the few other videos of the al-Qaida leader that have emerged since the Sept. 11 attacks.

In the last videotape, issued Sept. 10, 2003, bin Laden is seen walking through rocky terrain with his top deputy Ayman al-Zawahri, both carrying automatic rifles. In a taped message issued at the same time, bin Laden praises the "great damage to the enemy" on Sept. 11 and mentions five hijackers by name.

In December 2001, the Pentagon released a videotape in which bin Laden is shown at a dinner with associates in Afghanistan (news - web sites) on Nov. 9, 2001, saying the destruction of the Sept. 11 attacks exceeded even his "optimistic" calculations.

But in none of his previous messages, audio or video, did bin Laden directly state that he ordered the attacks.

The last audiotape purportedly from bin Laden came in April. The speaker on the tape, which CIA (news - web sites) analysts said likely was the al-Qaida leader, offered a truce to European nations if they pull troops out of Muslim countries. The tape referred to the March 22 assassination by Israel of Hamas founder Sheik Ahmed Yassin.

Al-Zawahri, bin Laden's Egyptian deputy, has spoken on three recent audiotapes that emerged on June 11, Sept. 9 and Oct. 1 this year. In the latest, he called on young Muslims to strike the United States and its allies.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=3&u=/ap/20041029/ap_ on_re_mi_ea/bin_laden_tape
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Amanecer
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Hmmm... sounds like bin Laden is changing his message to sound more appealing. A message like this one would probably be very appealing to Iraqis that want the US to leave. It makes the terrorists sound more pious than previous statements. Very interesting development.
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Farmgirl
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So this means......what? Terrorists endorse Kerry?

FG

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Lost Ashes
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bin Laden, like most political leaders, can change his reasonings to fit the situation as need be.
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Tristan
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Hey, Sweden got mentioned!

Uhm...

I haven't yet decided what I think about that.

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newfoundlogic
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Both sides will try to twist it both ways, the better twister just might win the election.
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Farmgirl
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quote:
In what could be read as a bizarre endorsement of Bush's Democratic challenger John Kerry, bin Laden, addressing the American people, said "best way to avoid another disaster" was to avoid provoking Arab anger. "Liberals do not neglect their security, contradicting Bush, who says that we hate freedom," bin Laden said.
(from the Jerusalem Post's article about the video)

FG

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Narnia
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Wow. So bin laden really would vote Kerry/Edwards!
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Xaposert
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Actually, bin Laden says both Kerry and Bush are irrelevant:

"Your security is not in the hands of (Democratic candidate John) Kerry or Bush or al-Qaida. Your security is in your own hands"

I think bin Laden's position can be inferred to be quite similar to many Americans' - that John Kerry is sub-par, but Bush is far worse. But he clearly seems to think it is up to US to decide to pursue a different sort of policy in the middle east.

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Narnia
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Hm. I suppose I need to start ending my posts with "j/k [Wink] "...

j/k [Wink]

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Elizabeth
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How possible would it be for a good Photoshop person to revamp an old video of bin Laden? Are they sure it is even him?

(jeepers. Imagine. There was a day when a photograph was pretty much believed to be of the person it was showing. I don't believe anything I see on tv anymore.)

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Verily the Younger
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quote:
and said "the best way to avoid another Manhattan" was to stop threatening Muslims' security.
The best way to stop us from threatening Muslims' security is to stop attacking us and our allies and slaughtering innocent civilians. Go figure.
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Miro
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And the cycle continues...
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the_Somalian
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Say Bin Laden really supports Kerry. Would he be so stupid as to state his support? If he wanted Kerry to win he'd have not said anything. Indeed, this should be seen as an attempt by Bin Laden to keep Bush in power so that the fighting continues and he has more to complain about. And the best way to do this is to endorse Kerry as this can only hurt him.
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CStroman
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That last post is quite...interesting. Do you really believe that?
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the_Somalian
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But logically, if Bin Laden wants Kerry in because Kerry is, say, a wimp who won't be as aggresive as Bush on terrorism, why would he fuel Bush's fire by indirectly endorsing Kerry through criticism of Bush? Listen to the man! He sounds like your typical liberal! I suspect that the whole video was calculated to guarentee a Bush win so that the fighting continues.
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CStroman
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I guess that's a "yes"? Am I wrong?

I'm sorry, I'm not buying the whole "reverse physcology" thing.

He's trying to make himself look like the "victim's advocate" so that people will sympathize with him and vote Bush out.

His message seems to be aimed at people who dislike Bush trying to make Bush out to be the bad guy and bin Laden as the "we're only trying to defend ourselves" savior.

I've heard some whoppers of conspiracy theories, but the one you put forth ranks right up there.

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Troubadour
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As to the photoshop question -

Well if it was a still image, not a problem. Video, much, much harder.

You're talking either 25 frames per second or 29.97 (whatever they're using as a video standard in the middle east). Assume four minutes of footage. That would be a minium of 6000 individual frames that would have to be altered painstakingly AND timed to make the lip-sync look right.

Not absolutely impossible, but very very very difficult and time consuming. Humans can be fooled easily by still photos, but not so much when movement is involved, and the kind of detail work here would get picked up very easily unless you had ILM working on it...

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Fyfe
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It's not all that wild a theory. Osama bin Laden would have to be pretty damn stupid to give a message endorsing Kerry if he wanted Kerry elected. I mean. You'd have to be really stupid.
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Xaposert
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Well, if Osama is all about simply destroying America then he should want Bush to win, because Bush's strategy is more likely to escalate the war and harm America. I suspect Osama realizes this.

However, I think bin Laden is an idealist, and thus means what he is saying here. He doesn't seem like the sort that would want leaders he hates to rule his enemies, just so they will do a poor job of ruling. I think he's going to support the candidate that he thinks actually is going to be less aggressive towards the Middle East.

Not that his opinion matters.

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MaydayDesiax
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As Bernard said when he first read it: "It seems to me that Bin Laden's a fan of Farenheit 9/11."
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Intelligence3
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Hey, let's all analyze the logic of the crazy guy!
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Bob_Scopatz
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Good Point I3
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fil
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There are whole building's worth of people trying to analyze this "crazy" person. Should they stop? [Big Grin]

Hey, he also forgot to mention Poland! Gah!

fil

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Foust
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Eh? Who said bin Laden's crazy? Plenty of people you would consider sane have issued orders that would directly result in the death of vast numbers of people.

Face it. bin Laden makes more sense in that speech than either Bush or Kerry. A little introspection is in order for America.

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Verily the Younger
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I guess I just don't understand why this should even matter. Why should Americans care whom Osama bin Laden wants in the White House? I'm going to vote for the candidate I prefer, and I would hope that everyone else will vote for the candidate they prefer. I'm sure as hell not going to change my vote because Osama bin Laden wants me to or does not want me to. It's not going to be his feelings I'll be considering when I'm at the polls.
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Boris
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quote:
Well, if Osama is all about simply destroying America then he should want Bush to win, because Bush's strategy is more likely to escalate the war and harm America. I suspect Osama realizes this.
I don't see why people think Kerry is going to pull us out of Iraq or Afghanistan or anywhere. He's said multiple times that he wants to go out and kill or capture all the terrorists everywhere. I really don't see how Kerry's going to make anything different than they are now, aside from the even bigger screwups that occur during a shift in command that is.
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Boris
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quote:
I guess I just don't understand why this should even matter. Why should Americans care whom Osama bin Laden wants in the White House? I'm going to vote for the candidate I prefer, and I would hope that everyone else will vote for the candidate they prefer. I'm sure as hell not going to change my vote because Osama bin Laden wants me to or does not want me to. It's not going to be his feelings I'll be considering when I'm at the polls.
I'm with you there. I guess people just like to argue too much.
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newfoundlogic
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Maybe he genuinely wants Kerry to win and this is just his way of getting the fundamentalists out to the polls on November 2.
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