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Sharon's stroke won't be end of peace process
IU experts say Israel will go on without popular leader

by Steve Hinnefeld
331-4374 | shinnefeld@heraldt.com
January 6, 2006

The stroke that disabled Ariel Sharon has thrown Israeli politics into confusion less than three months before national elections, Israel experts at Indiana University said.

But the sidelining of the popular prime minister doesn't necessarily mean the government will move to the left or right, they said. And Sharon's stroke may have no impact on prospects for Middle East peace, which depend on Israelis growing weary of the conflict.

Sharon, 77, suffered a massive stroke Wednesday. Doctors said his survival was in question, and he was unlikely to fully recover.

Dror Wahrman, an IU history professor and an Israeli, said Sharon has embodied Israelis' concern for security combined with acceptance of a Palestinian state. Last year, Sharon formed a new centrist party, called Kadima, which was expected to win the late-March elections and form a new coalition government.

"If his party survives this, as maybe the dominant party, then the political implications are not that great," Wahrman said. "It will prove this is not just the whim of a very powerful leader but really what people want."

Wahrman said initial polls after Sharon's stroke showed Kadima remained popular.

"The party map now really does reflect much better the real positions of the electorate," he said. "That, in a sense, does not depend on Sharon."

Vice Premier Ehud Olmert took charge of the government and would be a likely Kadima leader. But Labor veteran Shimon Peres, 82, is "the glue that holds the whole thing together," Wahrman said.

Rafael Reuveny, a professor in IU's School of Public and Environmental Affairs and also an Israeli, thinks Kadima supporters will return to their previous parties - Likud on the right and Labor on the left.

"Many of the votes Kadima was getting were due to Sharon," he said. "With him out of the picture, I believe we're almost back to Step 1."

He said Likud and its leader, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are the likely front-runners with Sharon out of the picture. But that may not mean a move to the hard right, he said.

"Once you present Israeli politicians with the ability to govern, they sometimes forget some of their ideology," he said.

So it was with Sharon, a one-time hard-liner who last year unilaterally withdrew Israeli forces from Palestinian Gaza as a step toward peace.

Reuveny said Sharon got out in front of the parade of Israeli public opinion.

"People think the big events in history rise and fall based on the personality of one guy. Well, this is not the case," he said. "It's not about Sharon; it's not about Netanyahu. These are just people. They lead in the direction the country wants to go."

Meanwhile, Palestinian elections are scheduled Jan. 25, adding uncertainty to the region's political future. Wahrman said that, ironically, the best outcome could be a victory for the radical Hamas group, which might then have to recognize that a Palestinian majority wants a two-state solution to the conflict with Israel.

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Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
Hey cool, your dad's famous!

I'm curious though, how does a victory for Hamas help, if Israel refuses to recognize Hamas as a legitimate political party? It'd be great if Hamas realized that the destruction of Israel isn't a realistic goal, though I doubt they'll be that rational anytime soon.

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