posted
It occurs to me that Senator Obama may not have such a hard time getting out the "women" vote in the general when the "woman" vote remembers that the next president is almost certain to appoint at least one and probably two Supreme Court Justices.
Posts: 11187 | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
Vanity Fair published a piece by Todd Purdum over the weekend that is getting surprisingly little coverage. I'll bet it's getting read by Democratic party officials, though - especially uncommitted superdelegates.
Warning: article contains some language guaranteed to be offensive to some readers here, in terms of obscenities. The Comeback Id
quote: Old friends and longtime aides are wringing their hands over Bill Clinton’s post–White House escapades, from the dubious (and secretive) business associations to the media blowups that have bruised his wife’s campaign, to the private-jetting around with a skirt-chasing, scandal-tinged posse. Some point to Clinton’s medical traumas; others blame sheer selfishness, and the absence of anyone who can say “no.” Exploring Clintonworld, the author asks if the former president will be consumed by his own worst self.
*Specific* examples of Senator Clinton's "baggage" have been rare in this primary contest.
This article gives a a fair sampling of what some of that post-presidential baggage might contain. It contains suggestions of continued womanizing on Bill's part, but the worst parts involve his use of his presidential prestige to boost business interests for donors to his foundation.
Burnum, the author, is a former reporter for the NY Times and husband to former Clinton press secretary Dee Dee Myers.
Not sure this helps make a case for her as VP...
Posts: 4344 | Registered: Mar 2003
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posted
Yeah. Terry McAuliffe said on MSNBC this morning (amidst his usual gung ho rhetoric) that after the event on Tuesday, the Senator would be "making phone calls" presumably to super delegates. That he didn't have any other activity planned seemed telling.
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I think that the biggest damage this race has done to the Democrats is convince just about everyone that the system is unfair. I think this is why people are willing to vote for mccain if their candidate does not win, because they feel they were cheated out of their choice. I have trouble imagining Clinton saying she lost fair and square, which is what really needs to be said.
Posts: 2223 | Registered: Mar 2008
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For the most part, the idea of voting for McCain, for anyone that really, really supports Clinton's platform, because they feel cheated is mind bogglingly stupid to me. This is a woman who is running on the platform that Bush has been a disaster and Democratic policies that Obama embraces entirely are necessary to fix the country. So in protest they will vote for a guy who is the exact opposite of their candidate's policies? Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
I think this year has highlighted the need for reformation of the system. I'd be surprised, though not very, if in four years the process hadn't changed at all. At the very least I'm betting Superdelegates will get the axe. But I also think a lot of states aren't going to sit around and let the DNC annoint early voting states to an upper class election status. Something's gotta give.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Tom Vilsack, former candidate and Clinton supporter says it's over. Bill Clinton has said that today is his last day of campaigning. Insiders are saying that in her speech, which will take place tonight in New York and not in the two voting states, MT and SD, she'll hint that she'll accept the VP spot if it is offered to her. In other words, it's going to sound like a concession speech, and she's going to sound concilliatory. Others are also saying that the campaign is sending a lot of staffers home, and that there are no plans to campaign in any further states after tomorrow.
Despite the fact that most other polls have Obama ahead in both states by decent margins, ARG, the court jester of polling agencies, has Clinton ahead I think 30 some points in one of the states and Obama only five ahead in the other, I can't remember which. Regardless of what happens tomorrow (Obama I think will win at least one of the states, if not both, by a comfortable but not stellar margin), I think we'll see a dozen supers go to him tomorrow, and by Friday he'll have another 50 join up. The House Whip will support Obama as will at least a half dozen senators. Some of them are saying they want to give her a day to breathe before they make their move, as a courtesy, but I think an avalanche of Supers are about to clinch this thing for Obama. He'll have a majority of delegates by Friday.
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I'm doubtful that Clinton will work as hard at placating her supporters and mobilizing them to support Obama as she did getting them all riled up and resentful in the first place.
But hey, if I'm wrong it can only make me happy.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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quote:Originally posted by sndrake: Vanity Fair published a piece by Todd Purdum over the weekend that is getting surprisingly little coverage.
Since you posted this, the mainstream media seems to have picked up the story. When I was in the caffeteria at work yesterday afternoon the commentators at FOX News were talking about little else.
What are the odds that she'll carry the fight to the convention, regardless of Obama's lead in delegates? I'm guessing pretty good, given the resolve she's displayed thus far.
Posts: 1813 | Registered: Apr 2001
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All her subordinates and everyone around her are indicating that if Obama gets enough support tonight she'll call him the nominee, and that's the ball game. She's even softening her tone (has been for weeks) and hinting that she wants to be VP. Now that the top spot is out of reach, I think she'll start exerting pressure for the #2 spot. She doesn't want to go back to the Senate for a number of reasons. Whether she gets it is anyone's guess, though my guess is no (but I could be wrong).
From what I've read, there are a couple dozen Supers waiting to get on board with Obama after tonight's election is over. Some might wait a day, but I think enough will announce tonight to put him over the top, with many more following as the week progresses.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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I agree with Lyrhawn, both that this is saber rattling and that she won't get the VP slot that she's eyeing. I expect that she'll wrangle a cabinet position out of this, though.
Posts: 16059 | Registered: Aug 2000
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What cabinet position could she possibly be qualified for? Based on her pursuit of healthcare, maybe HHS? She knows the military better than him due I think to a combination of her time on the Armed Services Committee and her former White House experience. I know she didn't order troops into combat as first lady, but I'm betting she picked stuff up. But neither of those leave her remotely qualified to run the DoD. Other than HHS, which I think is a stretch by itself, I don't see what else she'd even want.
I see her running for the Governor of NY when Patterson's term expires before I could see her in Obama's cabinet. I think she'll try to repair her position in the party by campaigning eagerly for Obama, and she'll argue that by making the process go through all 50 states, they energized the base, set up operations in all 50 states, got volunteers out and raised vast sums of money. In other words, she'll spin what everyone else called a mess as a huge advantage for the party (and she might not be wrong in doing so) and she'll claim partial credit for the leg up Obama will have over McCain.
Why? Because it's the only shot she has at getting the Chair from Carl Levin when he retires some day.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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By the most recent counts, a slew of Superdelegate endorsements today, including one switch from Clinton to Obama, has put Obama within 12 delegates of clinching the nomination, according to the new numbers adjusted for the Michigan/Florida decision. 31 delegates are at stake tonight, which means even if he lost both races by 10 points, he'd still clinch.
Reports from various sources say another wave of superdelegates are preparing to announce tomorrow, but want to give Clinton the chance tonight to gracefully exit the contest.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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With more superdelegates coming out for Obama throughout the day CNN now has him only 12 delegates away from the "magic number." I'd be really surprised if he doesn't get at least that many from Montana and South Dakota today.
ETA: Interrupted while typing means Lyrhawn beat me to it!
posted
Even if Montana and South Dakota don't deliver the final 12 delegates, the AP has more than that in super-delegates who've privately told them they are with Obama.
Posts: 6316 | Registered: Jun 2003
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posted
Even more updates put Obama six delegates away. It changed from seven to six as I was reading the story. I guess confirmations are coming in frequently.
He is at 2,112, with 2,118 being the magic number.
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posted
Well, Clinton didn't concede tonight, she said she won't make any decision tonight and wants to think on it for a few days. I still think we'll have moved on to the next stage by the end of the week, but, we'll see.
So you'll probably still have this thread around for a couple more days.
Obama was heavy in his speech on the Lincoln references "full measure of devotion" and "last best hope" (Yes, that's Lincoln first, not Bab 5), and FDR "nothing to fear by fear itself." It was a nice speech, great energy, which was in contrast to McCain's rather sedate speech he gave earlier in the day.
I guess we'll give this thing a couple days to pan out. The primary elections are over...now it's just hanging around waiting for something to happen? I guess.
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posted
I have to admit Senator Clinton as SoD is almost humorous in its frightening implications.
I'd like my Secretary of Defense to be able to remember clearly whether or not they took gunfire coming out of a helicopter once in their damn lives, thanks.
Posts: 17164 | Registered: Jun 2001
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While I think she'd be a terrible SecDef, she couldn't be worse than Donald Rumsfeld.
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edit: You know, that may be one lasting legacy that President Bush leaves behind. No matter who you suggest for a given position, it's likely he put forth/had someone worse. Donald Rumsfeld - SecDef, Harriet Myers - Supreme Court, Mike Brown - FEMA, either of his first two AGs, etc.
posted
Clinton as Secretary of Defense? Why? What experience does she bring to the job?
I'm hearing rumors from the AP that Clinton is gunning for VP. I can't think of a better way for Obama to shoot himself in the face than to bring her along for the presidential ticket.
Posts: 14554 | Registered: Dec 1999
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So far as I can tell, the only leverage Sen Clinton has is the influence she has over her supporters for the general elections and her husbands popularity. I'm pretty sure this is nowhere near enough to let her bargain for the VP slot and it might not be enough for a serious cabinet position either.
Posts: 10177 | Registered: Apr 2001
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posted
And it is a rather scorched earth type of leverage. If she decides to throw the election to the Republicans because she doesn't get what she wants, she is pretty well ruined, I would think. Although I should be surprised at anything she does, it is hard to imagine that she would trash any future she might have. And I'm not sure it would work. As I said before, are all those women going to vote for pro-life (now) Senator McCain?
I think that there are better choices for a running mate who can rally the "poor white" vote who don't come with all the baggage. Being forced to add Senator Clinton to the ticket would also look weak and diminish Senator Obama's ability to govern.
Posts: 11187 | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
So yeah my mother called me just to rub it in...grumble...
But yeah Congrats to Obama. He ran a good campaign. Of course none of this matters if he loses in November. I'm hoping he wins big, I don't think I can take another close call.
Posts: 796 | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
Before Obama gave his speech, there was a little moment when he and Michelle knocked knuckles and gave each other thumbs up. It was cute and funny. I wonder if anyone else noticed...
Posts: 722 | Registered: Jul 2004
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CNN is reporting that Clinton will drop out by the end of the week. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are saying the race is officially over.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Nah, estimates are estimates. There are 3409&1/2 pledged-delegates to be bound through the DemocraticPresidentialPrimary process For a clear victory in the primary caucuses and elections, 1705 pledged-delegates must be bound to a specific candidate. As of today, there are 1684&1/2 pledged-delegates bound to Obama. ie Obama needs 20&1/2 more pledged-delegates to obtain a clear victory. So Clinton cannot have lost the Primary contest until June6th/7th when the TexasStateConvention decides how their remaining 67 pledged-delegates will be bound.
And most superdelegates can change their minds up through the last Nominating ballot at the DemocraticNationalConvention.
posted
Not only the superdelegates can change their minds, but also the so-called pledged delegates, according to the rules of the Democratic Party, are not legally bound to vote the way the primaries went. Every single delegate could change his mind, even on the first ballot in the convention. There will be nothing to take for granted when the votes are taken in the Dem convention.
The Dems have shot themselves in the foot so many times during this primary campaign, they have no feet left. The convention should be convened with everyone in wheelchairs.
Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2001
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Maybe a young senator will speak at the convention and unify the party solidly around Obama.
Of course 4 years ago that might have been Obama with a time machine creating a time paradox that somehow allowed him to create the environment necessary for his becoming president.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
Montana is an interesting final note on the primary election season. Montana held the republican primary in Feb. when there were still half a dozen candidates in the running but held their democratic primary this week.
Only 1628 people voted in Montana's republican primary last february or 0.25% of the registered voters. Which is very low even for primary elections. This week 181,423 Montanan's voted in the democratic primary (28% of the registered voters). And this is in a purported "red state".
Over one hundred times as many people came out to vote in the democratic primary this week as voted in the republican primary in february and Obama won by a 16% margin.
I'm not exactly sure what that means for the general election but I think its clearly an indicator that the long drawn out primary process attracted a lot of attention and motivated many people to participate in the primary.
It may mean that the hard fought democratic primary will turn out to be a boon for Obama rather than the shot in the foot so many republicans have been hoping for.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
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I hadn't checked here in a bit and was surprised to see that Clinton's delay in conceding - or giving the slightest indication that she actually knew Obama was the nominee - hadn't been discussed.
From news reports, it sounds like she was inclined to let this all hang out even longer, but yesterday, Rep. Charlie Rangel and a bunch of other members of the House did an intervention on her.
Rangel - a loyal Clinton supporter - was *not* happy with her introduction on Tuesday night as "the next president of the United States."
I don't use the term "intervention" lightly, this was a blunt talk by concerned friends telling her she was harming her own career and the prospects of her own party.
Posts: 4344 | Registered: Mar 2003
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posted
I am surprised to hear that her chief advisor introduced her Tuesday night as "The next President of the United States."
There is absolutely no way Obama could pick her for VP now, even if he wanted to. It would look like he was bullied into it.
Posts: 26077 | Registered: Mar 2000
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posted
"I'm not sure where you got your figures, but the News Hour site had it different."
NewsHour's total includes their estimated split of 124 pledged-delegates by the yet-to-occur Texas, Idaho, Iowa, Washington, and Nebraska state conventions. One hardly calls the SuperBowl based on what the sports writers predict will occur.
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