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I hope it doesn't hit-- just in case there's such thing as karma. Though I certainly understand the appeal of stuff getting smashed. I mean, what if it hits Mars and breaks a chunk of Mars and that chunk comes and hits Earth? That would totally stink.
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It's not just the appeal of stuff getting smashed. I read that scientists are hoping to see evidence of water during and after the impact.
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Because of the direction of its approach, a near miss should accelerate it outward from the sun via slingshot effect. If it hits at 8 1/2 mps, would that produce back-blast where some particals might have enough velocity to escape Mars, and perhaps then fall inward toward the sun, and possibly pass near Earth? Some scientists in recent years have claimed that some meteorites have come to Earth from Mars by such means.
If it is only 150 feet across, that would not seem like a lot--relatively speaking--but it could impart a wallop powerful enough to send some respectable Martian boulders toward Earth orbit, especially if it is very dense, like solid nickel-iron.
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This may be approaching Probability Zero (with apologies to Analog), but wouldn't it be really, really cool if some heroic Martian astronauts intercepted the asteroid and nuked it before it hits?
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Good point, Icarus. I have this sneaking suspicion that we are soon going to suffer a serious disaster from a hit by an asteroid (or a shot gun blast of several), and humanity is going to realize that yes, we really do need to take this danger seriously and prepare to protect ourselves from it--but it will already be too late. It may not be an extinction level event, but it will deliver a shattering blow to the world's economy, and even America will be nearly bankrupted by the costs of dealing with it.
I am surprised this has not happened already. Every few decades earth takes a meteoric hit of significant power. At least one last century in South America was said to have released energy equivalent to a fair-sized nuke. The only reason it did not produce a major catastrophe was that it hit in a jungle area sparseley inhabited by humans. Like the Tunguska event in Siberia in 1908, if it had hit somewhere like Los Angeles, it would have destroyed the city.
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So, there's really no reason to think a civilization disrupting event should have PROBABLY happened.
Eh.. anyways. I think the worrying here is misplaced, and with a lot of astronomers watching this there's probably more concern from things we haven't yet seen, than from the meteor that is being watched by the world..
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It would be a sad, but spectacular, end for one of the Mars Rovers to be struck by this.
I don't suppose it's even possible for the asteroid to land close enough to one of the rovers to leave a crater accessible without the solar panels being choked to death by dust from the impact?
Posts: 1368 | Registered: Sep 2002
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quote:Originally posted by Starsnuffer: Eh.. anyways. I think the worrying here is misplaced, and with a lot of astronomers watching this there's probably more concern from things we haven't yet seen, than from the meteor that is being watched by the world..
People are worrying about this? I've seen people being excited and people being indifferent. That's been about it. Oh, I guess one person did express concern for the rovers; is that what you're talking about?
[Edit - One person other than Architraz Warden, I mean; that post wasn't there when I started my reply]
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If the crater is within range of the rover, the blast from the impact would have either disintegrated the rover, or sent it flying like a leaf in the wind. The Martian atmosphere is much thinner than earth's, but I'm sure it would still transmit the shockwave quite a long way. The shockwave would include a huge wall of dust and gravel, ahead of any molten crustal ejaculate. Maybe the rover will be able to pick up a distant view of the blast from a safe distance. That is probably the best we can hope for.
Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: If the crater is within range of the rover, the blast from the impact would have either disintegrated the rover, or sent it flying like a leaf in the wind. The Martian atmosphere is much thinner than earth's, but I'm sure it would still transmit the shockwave quite a long way. The shockwave would include a huge wall of dust and gravel, ahead of any molten crustal ejaculate. Maybe the rover will be able to pick up a distant view of the blast from a safe distance. That is probably the best we can hope for.
That's very true. I'd forgotten that the rovers have traveled 4-7 miles each during their time on Mars. But suppose it did impact, say 20 miles away from the rover with all its wheels functional, and once the dust settled the rover was still operational? Would it be worth flogging the thing to death trying to cover that distance in as short a time as possible (I know, I'm talking months / a year here). They're well past their life expectancy, would the reward of investigating a very recent impact be worth the risk of losing a rover?
Posts: 1368 | Registered: Sep 2002
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quote:Originally posted by Starsnuffer: There is no (appreciable [my own words here..]) danger to the rovers.
If an asteroid did suddenly fall out of the sky and land on top of one of the rovers, I would start to seriously suspect that we pissed off the universe somehow.
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posted
It's been downgraded to 1 chance in 40 of a hit / 97.5% chance of nothing happening.
While there is no appreciable danger to the two rovers from an asteroid strike, backblast might toss a few hundred thousand tons of rocks into the paths of the four current Mars orbiters, as well as present a lesser orbital hazard for future missions.
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