I show this almost every day to my students, it is a 10 minute version of the news geared towards younger vierwers. They did a nationwide mock election, and Obama won the electoral vote by a landslide. He won the popular vote by about 10%.
Posts: 3134 | Registered: Mar 2005
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The Economist has an electoral vote split of 278 for McCain and 9120 for Obama. Nickelodeon has a dead heat in preferences amongst its viewers. Which proves only that self-selecting polls are pret near useless.
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quote:Which proves only that self-selecting polls are pret near useless.
But aren't our elections "self-selecting"? I would expect that there is a pretty large overlap between the people who choose to respond to polls and those who choose to vote on election day.
I think the problem isn't with "self-selecting" polls in particular but with polls directed at a narrow audience. A poll taken on the "Rush Limbaugh" website is certain to give very different results than a poll taken on the Michael Moore website and that isn't because of self-selection in the poll, its because of self-selection in ever entering the website.
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Hey look! If you click on the banner at the bottom of the page you can give $50 to the McCain/Palin compliance fund.
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I think a survey of high school students of who they would vote for and why would be fascinating.
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I think the "why" portion would be the best.
"Obama, because he represents change, and he has such a powerful presence. He's a Rock Star!!!" would probably be the most common answer.
Wait, that's representative of a majority of the entire voting population, not just high school kids. I guess the average voter has as ephemeral a concept of what qualities are important for a president to possess as the average high schooler (or middle schooler, for that matter. Vote for Change, for the world is a butterfly! Yay!)
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quote:Originally posted by Reshpeckobiggle: I think the "why" portion would be the best.
"Obama, because he represents change, and he has such a powerful presence. He's a Rock Star!!!" would probably be the most common answer.
Wait, that's representative of a majority of the entire voting population, not just high school kids. I guess the average voter has as ephemeral a concept of what qualities are important for a president to possess as the average high schooler (or middle schooler, for that matter. Vote for Change, for the world is a butterfly! Yay!)
Why do you find in necessary to belittle people who disagree with you? Have you not yet learned that there are thoughtful, intelligent people on all sides on any question?
Tell, me what would you put on the "I'm voting for McCain banner" Would it be "I'm voting for McCain because Obama's a closet Muslim terrorist?"
While I believe there are at least some people out there who are that idiotic, I also know that there are people who have rational reasons for supporting McCain.
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This goes to show that many Obama supporters are really favoring Obama because they are infatuated with him. What they are really favoring is their own personal "ideal" of the perfect political leader, which they have persuaded themselves that Obama fits. That is not intelligent. It is like a naive teenager being "in love with love," rather than having his eyes open to see the reality of the person he is dating.
It also provides a good case for raising the minimum voting age back up to 21, where it was originally.
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I show this almost every day to my students, it is a 10 minute version of the news geared towards younger vierwers. They did a nationwide mock election, and Obama won the electoral vote by a landslide. He won the popular vote by about 10%.
On the bright side, most of them aren't old enough to vote, and most of those who are, won't.
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I show this almost every day to my students, it is a 10 minute version of the news geared towards younger vierwers. They did a nationwide mock election, and Obama won the electoral vote by a landslide. He won the popular vote by about 10%.
On the bright side, most of them aren't old enough to vote, and most of those who are, won't.
You never know. This could always be the year that they surprise you. Especially since the great majority of Obama volunteers, let alone supporters, at least around me are teenagers.
Posts: 3852 | Registered: Feb 2002
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: This goes to show that many Obama supporters are really favoring Obama because they are infatuated with him. What they are really favoring is their own personal "ideal" of the perfect political leader, which they have persuaded themselves that Obama fits. That is not intelligent. It is like a naive teenager being "in love with love," rather than having his eyes open to see the reality of the person he is dating.
Exactly how do you see McCain/Palin supporters as different. Yes a lot of voters make their decisions for irrational reasons, but I don't see that Obama voters are necessarily more prone to this than McCain voters. I know quite a few people who are backing McCain solely because he fits their own personal image of an ideal leader better than Obama. I also know some who are voting for McCain because they think Obama is a closet Muslim.
quote:It also provides a good case for raising the minimum voting age back up to 21, where it was originally.
Once again, you'll have to show me that over 21 voters are on the whole better. If you think 18 year olds aren't sophisticated enough to make a rational voting choice, what about older people suffering from dimentia or people who never read a new paper or people who are of below average intelligence?
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McCain supporters are not infatuated with him--he is not that beautiful. You have to know accurate details about him, his past, what he has shown by actions that he believes in, to favor him. Of course, Palin is beautiful, not just as a former beauty queen, but as the closest we have come to a woman who exemplifies the Christian ideal of the "virtuous woman." But she is not running for president (this time).
McCain really does fit my personal image of an ideal leader. Like Arnold Schwarzeneggar just said, McCain spent more time serving America in a POW camp than Obama has in the U.S. Senate.
You will have to change the universe to try to establish the idea that people below the age of 21 have better judgment than people 21 or above.
The people with dementia or are below average intelligence who vote, were probably registered by ACORN.
[ November 01, 2008, 12:35 PM: Message edited by: Ron Lambert ]
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I think most McCain supporters probably have better reasons for supporting McCain than Obama supporters have for voting for their man. This because in order to support McCain, you kinda need a reason. From what I can tell, you don't need a reason to support Obama. Not to say that Obama supporters don't have reasons -good ones even. Just that I rarely hear anyone say he or she supports McCain because "He's awesome," or "he's black" and no more explanation appears to be needed.
I hope some of you see the humor in that last sentence...
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quote:Just that I rarely hear anyone say he or she supports McCain because "He's awesome," or "he's black" and no more explanation appears to be needed.
Never heard a single person say either of those things with no further explanation. Some examples would be nice. I don't think it would necessarily be untrue, but I just haven't seen it.
I have, however, seen people interviewed saying they wouldn't vote for Obama because he was black, or because he was too popular.
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quote:Originally posted by Reshpeckobiggle: Vote for Change, for the world is a butterfly! Yay!)
I think it's more like 'Vote for Change, because the last eight years sucked and most Americans are worse off than they were eight years ago'.
Living in a country that: a) is directly affected by the decisions of US voters, and b) has just changed government for much the same reason
I'm all for Obama and the change he represents. I'm also unimpressed with McCain, and to be honest, if I had a vote I would not vote for him anyway, simply based on the fact that Palin (the most appalling candidate in the entire election) comes with him as part of the package.
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I know so many people who are voting for McCain/Palin "because they've always voted Republican" or "because Obama is a muslim communist socialist terrorist". Neither of which show any knowledge about McCain at all save for the fact that he's the "real American". Neither of which show any knowledge about the issues or the either of the candidates. Neither of which show anything but incredible gullibility, ignorance or disguised racism!
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"You will have to change the universe to try to establish the idea that people below the age of 21 have better judgment than people 21 or above."
Some people below the age of 21 have better judgment than some people 21 or above, yes, definitely. It happens on this forum, in fact, fairly regularly.
Generalizations don't work with human beings for anything more complicated than actuarial tables. They just don't. For just one extreme example, I submit that my 16-year-old son has far better judgment than the 25-year-old man who gets shot stealing money for drugs.
If you've known even one sensible teenager and one idiot adult (and odds are good you know or have heard of many, many of them), your statement is meaningless.
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I can't wait 'til I'm 45 so I can finally grow up, realize love is a lie, my income and border security are more important than anything else, and deny that I ever had a childhood.
Damn me and my unenlightened 20 year old judgment. Can't wait to grow out of this. Posts: 349 | Registered: Jul 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Alcon: I know so many people who are voting for McCain/Palin "because they've always voted Republican" or "because Obama is a muslim communist socialist terrorist". Neither of which show any knowledge about McCain at all save for the fact that he's the "real American". Neither of which show any knowledge about the issues or the either of the candidates. Neither of which show anything but incredible gullibility, ignorance or disguised racism!
I had a conversation tonight that was pretty depressing. Not that I hadn't thought of it already, but never in such clear terms.
For what reasons might one be intent on voting this Tuesday, and yet remain undecided? I honestly cannot think of any scenario that would not have this hypothetical voter being some kind of self-important moron -at least, the very large majority of undecided likely voters at this point must be either extremely uninformed or highly susceptible to superficial influences, yet feel that their vote must be counted anyway. Perhaps some (or most, or all) honorably feel that there exists an obligation on them to cast their vote, regardless of their intellectual participation in the process. But as David Sedaris put it, and I paraphrase: "It's like being asked by a flight attendant, 'would you like the plate of sh*t or the chicken dinner,' and one responds, 'well, how is the chicken prepared?'"
And here we are, with 95% of the voting population having made up their minds, with varying degrees of coherent reasoning, awareness of the issues, and independent thought contributing to each voter's decision making, and the candidates are fighting for the remaining 5% of undecided voters that reside in the swing states.
I haven't yet sat down and thought about why this is so troubling to me, but believe me, I am troubled. This seems to indicate some inherent flaw in our entire voting/campaign system; I find myself drawn toward a sense that our election system was unwittingly designed to give more weight toward the votes of the uniformed/easily manipulated.
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quote:Originally posted by Saephon: I can't wait 'til I'm 45 so I can finally grow up, realize love is a lie, my income and border security are more important than anything else, and deny that I ever had a childhood.
Damn me and my unenlightened 20 year old judgment. Can't wait to grow out of this.
Ever heard the expression, "If you are not a liberal at the age of 20, you have no heart. And if you are not a conservative at the age of 40, you have no brain?"
Seriously, does the average 20-year-old think he or she is more likely to know more about the world and its machinations than the average 40-year-old? I mean, I think bleeding-heart liberalism serves a vitally important purpose in keeping the older, wiser, conservative-er WASPs from taking their heartless brilliance too far, but surely the peacenik stoners realize that if they were allowed to run things unimpeded, we'd all be on a road to destruction?
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T:man, there may be a few individual exceptions, but I spoke in terms of generalities. I did not say ALL people above the age of 21 have better judgment than ALL people below 21. For you to fail to recognize this distiction, shows you do not read with good undertanding. But hang on there for another year with Saephon, and maybe your reading comprehension will improve.
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Seriously, there was a report in science news about a year ago that researchers had ascertained that there is a portion of the human brain that is not fully developed yet in most teenagers, which makes it difficult for them to look ahead to the future with more sense of responsibility and acuity. It involves the ability to anticipate consequences. The age where this portion of the brain matures is said to be in the 18-20 year range.
Most of us are well aware of the way that we ourselves, and virtually everyone around us, changes dramatically in how forward-looking and responsible we are as we get out of the teen years. There are, of course, individual exceptions. Some young people 16 years old or younger can exhibit a great sense of responsibility, and amaze us with their organization and intelligent plans for their future. But then, occasionally we see eight-year-olds who can do calculus.
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quote:I haven't yet sat down and thought about why this is so troubling to me, but believe me, I am troubled. This seems to indicate some inherent flaw in our entire voting/campaign system; I find myself drawn toward a sense that our election system was unwittingly designed to give more weight toward the votes of the uniformed/easily manipulated.
This is just you basically saying, again, that 'People voting for liberals disturb me and I like to assume that they are mentally deficient somehow'
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Ron, I would not mind increasing the voting age if we also increased the driving, drinking, sexual maturity, and military recruitment ages. I figure if we're going to keep artificially extending adolescence, we should at least be consistent about it.
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quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: Of course, Palin is beautiful, not just as a former beauty queen, but as the closest we have come to a woman who exemplifies the Christian ideal of the "virtuous woman."
The people with dementia or are below average intelligence who vote, were probably registered by ACORN.
Uh, Ron, which Christian Church do you belong too?
Personally, I'd pick Mother Teresa as the woman who exemplifies the Christian ideal of the "virtuous woman".
So I am very curious to know which Christian Religion raised you to see Sarah Palin as 'The Model of the Christian Virtuous Woman'.
If you raised the voting age to 21, would you raise the Armed Forces enlistment age to 21? Jonas Goldberg too used your arguement that people under the age of 21 were too stupid, foolish and easily swayed to be able to vote. I wanted to ask him the same thing.
OK. So are the 18 year olds too naive to sign up for the military? I'd say that is a BIGGER choice than voting.
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There is also considerable evidence about a decrease in mental faculties as a person ages. Perhaps we should also set a maximum voting age? Would that be OK with you, Ron?
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MattP, because most elderly people maintain striking mental acuity and are the most likely segment of society to display profound wisdom and extensive knowlege, such tests used to validate someone's entitlement to vote should be based on mental maturity or maybe something like "mental acuity" tests. After all, this is how Alzheimer's is most commonly diagnosed--on the basis of verbal responses to a specific list of questions.
There are many factors which can keep the mind alert and active and clear even with increasing age. Diet matters, of course, along with other lifestyle things, like how many brain cells you have killed over your lifetime by consuming alcohol. Also, it was recently reported that surfing the Internet or otherwise being active on-line helps keep older minds active and clear. So I guess I owe a debt of gratitude to some of you whipper-snappers.
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quote:because most elderly people maintain striking mental acuity and are the most likely segment of society to display profound wisdom and extensive knowlege
I think your definitions of "elderly," "acuity," "wisdom," and "knowledge" matter a great deal, here.
Most people hit an intellectual peak at around 36, IIRC.
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This discussion is pretty silly; considering that people with IQs of 80 are permitted to vote, the differences between ages 20, 40, and 60 don't even amount to rounding error.
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As a Norwegian Christian Space Samurai, I think JK Rowling WTFpwns Sarah Palin as a living "Virtuous Christian Woman" and she might not even be Christian. I D K
So I am very curious to learn which steeple pinnacle Sarah Palin stands at the top of. Alaskan Baptist? Just a guess.
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quote:I haven't yet sat down and thought about why this is so troubling to me, but believe me, I am troubled. This seems to indicate some inherent flaw in our entire voting/campaign system; I find myself drawn toward a sense that our election system was unwittingly designed to give more weight toward the votes of the uniformed/easily manipulated.
This is just you basically saying, again, that 'People voting for liberals disturb me and I like to assume that they are mentally deficient somehow'
Where in "undecided" do you find "liberals?" Are you projecting, what with my calling undecideds uninformed, ignorant, and wishy-washing? I can understand why you would take those descriptors and unconsciously think "he must be talking about liberals."
It is inherent in its meaning that "undecided" is ideologically neutral for practical purposes. Stop maligning my intent with your presuppositions.
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quote:It would be fascinating. And then I would vote exactly the opposite of what they think...
There is a reason we have an age requirement to vote...
In all seriousness, I strongly suspect adults would give just as many ridiculous reasons for supporting a given candidate as teenagers would. After all, this was an election in which at least some adults seemed to think a person's middle name is relevant to how qualified they are to be president.
Posts: 2432 | Registered: Feb 2001
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quote:Originally posted by TomDavidson: Ron, I would not mind increasing the voting age if we also increased the driving, drinking, sexual maturity, and military recruitment ages. I figure if we're going to keep artificially extending adolescence, we should at least be consistent about it.
Just so. If they are old enough to die for their country, they should be allowed to vote and allowed to drink if they want to. It should be consistent.
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quote: Ever heard the expression, "If you are not a liberal at the age of 20, you have no heart. And if you are not a conservative at the age of 40, you have no brain?"
I prefer to believe that I was just so vastly intelligent as a teenager that I skipped the whole "liberal voting phase". Far better than to assume I was heartless.
quote: Seriously, there was a report in science news about a year ago that researchers had ascertained that there is a portion of the human brain that is not fully developed yet in most teenagers, which makes it difficult for them to look ahead to the future with more sense of responsibility and acuity. It involves the ability to anticipate consequences. The age where this portion of the brain matures is said to be in the 18-20 year range.
I think you're referring to the frontal lobe, which isn't even mature in men until the age of twenty-five. I used to blame my husband's bone-headed stunts on his immature frontal lobe. I'm out of excuses, now.
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The Biblical ideal of the "virtuous woman" is set forth in Proverbs chapter 31:10-31. So it is actually a Jewish ideal, as well. Most of the time, people say that the picture of such an excellent woman is a composite, no one woman could be all those things. But Sarah Palin seems to come close.
Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2001
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In the Report, "Rethinking the 'Juvenile' in Juvenile Justice," (Wisconsin Council on Children and Families) is the proposition that behavior that often gets juveniles into legal trouble can more be related to a developmental stage than to an adult type of criminality.
Here are some very interesting statements from the report:
quote:Adolescence is a distinct period of brain development - decision making is one of the last brain functions to mature in the early 20s.
Within the report is an analysis of the most recent findings on adolescent brain development, along with the practical implications for the justice system. For example, research in the field of adolescent brain development has confirmed that adolescents are more likely to engage in risk-taking behavior and less able to consider long-term consequences of risky behavior than adults.
The above would also indicate that young people still need some parental supervision and restraint well into their college years. It also raises serious question whether young people in their early twenties or younger are really capable of being ready for marriage.
In a summary of brain development facts, I found this:
"The frontal cortex does not fully develop until sometime in the early twenties."
quote:Originally posted by Ron Lambert: The Biblical ideal of the "virtuous woman" is set forth in Proverbs chapter 31:10-31. So it is actually a Jewish ideal, as well. Most of the time, people say that the picture of such an excellent woman is a composite, no one woman could be all those things. But Sarah Palin seems to come close.
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Rivka, perhaps you take seriously the nasty propaganda of the pro-Obama news media. Virtually everything they say about Palin to make her look bad is wrong. Everything. Don't believe a word of it. Look at the motives of the mud-slingers and sexist disparagers. As soon as McCain picked Palin, and the electorate was thrilled with her apparent quality, the Left immediately dispatched an army of lawyers and other dirt-diggers to Alaska to find every excuse they could for portraying Palin in a negative light. All the dirt they dug up depends upon a negative, hateful interpretation for it to look bad. And much of that comes from the corrupt politicians she forced out of office, expressing their resentment and trying to get back at her.
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