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Author Topic: The American Economic Death Spiral
DarkKnight
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quote:
Did you know that 37% of statistics are made up on the spot?
I know that 43% of that post was made up....or at least I am 60% sure that more than 27% of the post was based on data at least 41% accurate...
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Geraine
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quote:
Originally posted by DarkKnight:
quote:
Did you know that 37% of statistics are made up on the spot?
I know that 43% of that post was made up....or at least I am 60% sure that more than 27% of the post was based on data at least 41% accurate...
Ah, but 100% of the time the percentage in the phrase "X% of statistics are made up" is actually, in fact, made up.
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Nighthawk
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See, now you're just talking crazy talk.
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Samprimary
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I kind of want to make a malanthrop talking point generator now.
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Danlo the Wild
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America is winning the currency devaluing war!

The Recession is over!

The next decade looks great!

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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by TomDavidson:
That's a conclusion. That's not a method. I want to know the method by which you are crunching data, and which data you've crunched.


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Kwea
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quote:
Originally posted by malanthrop:
I have a prediction...

pass the stimulus and unemployment wont go over 8%.......

Sorry, that was the geniuses in charge's prediction.

10% isn't so bad, they've "saved or created" millions of jobs. It's "Recovery Summer".....yeah, things are good.

Proof, for once in your live. Show me a link where Obama said he promises it won't go over 8% if the stimulus package was passed.

I call bullshit. (as usual)

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Dan_Frank
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quote:
Originally posted by Kwea:
quote:
Originally posted by malanthrop:
I have a prediction...

pass the stimulus and unemployment wont go over 8%.......

Sorry, that was the geniuses in charge's prediction.

10% isn't so bad, they've "saved or created" millions of jobs. It's "Recovery Summer".....yeah, things are good.

Proof, for once in your live. Show me a link where Obama said he promises it won't go over 8% if the stimulus package was passed.

I call bullshit. (as usual)

I'm not Mal, but I've got thirty seconds and google, so I'll give this a shot anyway.

Well, it wasn't Obama himself (links to Google, tinied because it wasn't displaying correctly) who said that, but rather his advisors. Ignore the first hit, but the second and third are both relevant. The second is from an anti-Obama site, the third from a pro-Obama site. They both actually present the same basic fact: After Obama had been elected but prior to being sworn in, some of his advisors released a forecast that suggested that if the stimulus was passed unemployment would peak around 8%.

From there, each site spins the data according to their narrative.

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Samprimary
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I thought there had been an assurance of sorts that the stimulus package meant no unemployment over 8% if it got passed. I really didn't realize that was b.s. until I read those links.

From the document where the 'promise' is extrapolated:

quote:
For this reason, we have undertaken a preliminary analysis of the jobs effects of some of the prototypical recovery packages being discussed. Our analysis will surely evolve as we and other economists work further on this topic. The results will also change as the actual package parameters are determined in cooperation with the Congress.
quote:
Second, as emphasized above, there is considerable uncertainty in our estimates: both the impact of the package on GDP and the relationship between higher GDP and job creation are hard to estimate precisely. . .
well then.
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Lyrhawn
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That's interesting. I was under the impression that the 8% thing was solid.

And frankly it pisses me off. This has been repeated so many times by every mainstream news company that it's likely almost universally understood to be a fact. I consider myself pretty good at spotting unconfirmed crap that gets repeated and I fell for it. Irresponsible journalism like this really, really gets to me.

Obama's supposed promise and the fact that it was supposedly broken is a major reason why so many people think the stimulus was and is a failure. I suspect that even a concerted effort to overturn the public understanding of this issue would have almost no effect.

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fugu13
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How on earth could the 8% thing be solid? The President, even with the full support of Congress, simply doesn't have the capability to have that much influence on the economy. About the only way 8% maximum unemployment could be guaranteed would be a government work program that put the WPA to shame.

What's more, even very optimistic economists would never make a claim that strong. I'm sorry for my astonishment, but anyone thinking the President is capable of making such a claim (without a bill in hand promising to employ by the government all the unemployed necessary to meet the claim) should review what economic models are capable of.

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Kwea
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Exactly.

I also didn't think Bush meant the war in Iraq was really over, and he PERSONALLY said " Mission Accomplished" on national TV.

They HOPED it would peak around that, but no one PROMISED it would. As a matter of fact, they went OUT OF THEIR WAY to say it was uncertain.

Link to it if you can find it. Otherwise it's just more of your BS, Mal. Thanks for making this one easy.


Hell....Bush is the one who wanted to reclassify working in fast food as a manufacturing job to improve his own employment numbers while is office. I didn't see you objecting to that.

Employment numbers are voodoo math. It is educated guesswork at best, and often it is a complete lie. For EVERYONE. Anyone who tells you they know for SURE what the effect of a package was, and exactly how many jobs were created is lying, regardless of their party.

Funny....I bet I could find links showing the word "estimate" for the latest job figures.....

Link to the Link to the burger "manufacturing" debate in 2004, just to show mal how it's done.

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BlackBlade
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Also please note this thread was recently resurrected. Everything previous to Danlo's most recent post was said a long time ago.
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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
How on earth could the 8% thing be solid?

I saw it f****** everywhere. It's such a commonplace piece of invective against the administration that I had no idea it wasn't actually a promise he had made.

MAH BAD

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Samprimary
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
And frankly it pisses me off. This has been repeated so many times by every mainstream news company that it's likely almost universally understood to be a fact. I consider myself pretty good at spotting unconfirmed crap that gets repeated and I fell for it. Irresponsible journalism like this really, really gets to me.

Right there with you.

quote:
Obama's supposed promise and the fact that it was supposedly broken is a major reason why so many people think the stimulus was and is a failure. I suspect that even a concerted effort to overturn the public understanding of this issue would have almost no effect.
I think that's the most facepalm part of it. It's complete disinformation. And it's a success. Can't be undone.
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Kwea
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Dow Jones from Friday


quote:

10,830
Change
+41.63 +0.39%
Volume
161.89m
Oct 1, 2010, 4:02 p.m.
Previous close
10,788
Day low
Day high
10,781
10,867
Open: 10,790
52 week low
9,481

52 week high
11,258

Bold mine.

How's the prediction doing, Thor? [Wink]

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Lyrhawn
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quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
How on earth could the 8% thing be solid? The President, even with the full support of Congress, simply doesn't have the capability to have that much influence on the economy. About the only way 8% maximum unemployment could be guaranteed would be a government work program that put the WPA to shame.

What's more, even very optimistic economists would never make a claim that strong. I'm sorry for my astonishment, but anyone thinking the President is capable of making such a claim (without a bill in hand promising to employ by the government all the unemployed necessary to meet the claim) should review what economic models are capable of.

Just because presidents don't actually have the power to do something doesn't mean they won't claim they can. Remember any of a million promises Bush made about Iraq that were WAGs at best but he proclaimed as certainties?

I have zero faith in a president's ability to restrain himself from making claims that aren't within his actual power to meet.

Also, this:

quote:
Originally posted by Samprimary:
quote:
Originally posted by fugu13:
How on earth could the 8% thing be solid?

I saw it f****** everywhere. It's such a commonplace piece of invective against the administration that I had no idea it wasn't actually a promise he had made.

MAH BAD

Seriously, it was a frigging tsunami of stories that all said the same thing, and everyone repeated it everywhere. Given our propensity to believe presidents will say anything and the sheer number of people repeating this as fact, why assume it was false?
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fugu13
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I think you'll find Presidents hardly ever promise exact details about the future of the US economy. They make optimistic statements, yes, but I can't recall offhand hearing about any of the last several Presidents making a specific numerical promise that could be verified (that is, it is frequent to assert a plan will add X jobs or $X to the economy, but not that a plan guarantees the GDP will be $X or similar). Are there any examples of such verifiable numeric promises about the economy from Presidents in the last few decades?
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Lyrhawn
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Ask the average American that question and I'd bet the response would be 80/20 in favor of saying that presidents make promises like that all the time. Guaranteeing X numbers of jobs is just as much a WAG as saying the unemployment rate won't go above a certain level. It rarely ever comes out the way they say it will, if ever, but they still make promises, or give the impression of promises. In a nation where perception is reality, I'd almost put forth that suggesting something is as good as promising it specifically. Going almost all the way but falling short of a precise, specific promise doesn't much matter here. All that matters is what people think was promised. I don't like that. Actually, I hate it.

But even I fall for it more often than I'd like, and I'd be willing to bet the vast majority of other Americans do as well, mostly because no one ever calls presidents on what they do so, and because the average American, myself included at times, just don't know enough technical details or economic history specifically to be able to call BS at face value to some of this stuff.

So, when I hear every major news outlet far and wide repeating this with no one really objecting, sure I believe it, because presidents make promises all the time, and this one sounded perfectly believable. Nothing set off my BS detector.

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fugu13
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quote:
Guaranteeing X numbers of jobs is just as much a WAG as saying the unemployment rate won't go above a certain level.
But one is verifiable, and the other isn't.

The 8% statement is the sort Presidents don't make, because it can come back to bite them so much. Their advisors aren't that stupid.

Of course, even if a President did make it, the complete absurdity means anyone who took it as anything more than puffery wasn't thinking very hard.

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Lyrhawn
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First off, how is guaranteeing jobs verifiable? You're telling me that every job promise a president has made in the last decade or two has come true?

Second, alright, I'll submit that yes, it would be silly to think that he actually promised anything regarding economic activity, because you can't legislate economic change, you can only put into play legislation that you hope will influence the economy in some way.

So we're working with opinions and forecasts, yes? Let me ask this then: What responsibility do presidents have towards the opinions they express on how a given legislative measure will affect the economy? I would submit that a presidential opinion has the force of a promise insofar as when that opinion fails to come true, presidents suffer the fallout from being wrong, just like they do on promises. And in that vein, presidents put forth experts' guesses and opinions all the time as statements of influence to get you on his side. They win when those opinions are right, and they lose when those opinions are wrong.

So, when I see someone saying "Obama said that the unemployment rate would never go above 8%" I see that as what he thought would happen, and the specific figure didn't jump out at me as at all out of the ordinary, and I'm betting most others wouldn't see it that way either.

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fugu13
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quote:
First off, how is guaranteeing jobs verifiable? You're telling me that every job promise a president has made in the last decade or two has come true?

If a President says a bill will create/has created X jobs, that's unverifiable, because it is impossible to tell what the situation would have been without it. If a President says some statistic will be X at some point in the future, that statistic can be checked at that point in the future: verifiability.

Verifiable promises about the future of the economy are extremely rare. As I said, I can't think of one by the last several Presidents.

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Lyrhawn
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I see what you're saying.

I think it's a distinction without a difference. But as far as the distinction goes, I agree.

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TomDavidson
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quote:
Their advisors aren't that stupid.
I submit the idea that the American people would, without too much prompting, be perfectly willing to believe that their advisors are that stupid.
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Danlo the Wild
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How's the prediction going?

The Federal Reserve has flooded the banks with free cash, and now the Fed shall pump another 5 trillion into government and corporate coffers.

The dollar is dieing and in return, the stock market and oil is rising while gold is going berzerk.

Plunge Protection Team working hard!

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Kwea
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and we never got close to 7000, right?

You made a clear prediction, and so far it hasn't happened. Stop pretending you are some sort of prophet, or even that you have a basic understanding of the nature of anything you are criticizing.

How's the award winning novel/screenplay coming, Thor? You know, back when you are making other unsubstantiated claims, such as you being a great writer who can "obviously" write much better than OSC ever has.


Don't you ever get tired of not only always being wrong, but making such a big deal about it all of the time?

The economy sucks. We know this. But it is hardly the death of our way of life, or proof that any of your unsubstantiated claims have any more than a grain of truth in them.

As usual.

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Kwea
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-08/gold-declines-from-record-pares-weekly-advance-on-strengthening-dollar.html
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Danlo the Wild
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"How's the award winning novel/screenplay coming, Thor? You know, back when you are making other unsubstantiated claims, such as you being a great writer who can "obviously" write much better than OSC ever has."

Ender's Game is flawless. I never said could top 'flawless'.

I am a Prophet. I know who the 3rd anti christ is.

What's the point of telling people?

Let's just all enjoy Hyperinflation together.

Oh, and I've been more correct in my predictions than all of your American Christian Churches combined.

They've been too busy protecting us from Homosexuals.

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Danlo the Wild
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AND. I predicted the Dow Jones hitting 7000 BEFORE DECEMBER.

Oh look, my prediction has TOTALLY FAILED!!!!!!

It's up to 11,000 and it's The beginning of October!!!! OCTOBER IS WAY WAY WAY AFTER DECEMBER, right?

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Danlo the Wild
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"Don't you ever get tired of not only always being wrong, but making such a big deal about it all of the time?"

In 2004, I declared that the Beast/Whore of Babylon written in the Holy Bible is in fact the 'Global Markets'.

Boy. Do I look like a fool. heh.

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Danlo the Wild
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-dead-maybe-by-2012-2010-10-05

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/three-horrifying-facts-about-us-debt-%E2%80%9Csituation%E2%80%9D

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-08/greenspan-says-u-s-engaged-in-dangerous-game-as-debt-deficits-increase.html

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/national-debt-national-interest-rate-samuel/10/8/2010/id/30473

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/lessons-not-learned-no-failure-too.html

http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/tpg/taipan-daily/taipan-daily-100810.html?sub=TD&o=182104&s=184461&u=48412125&l=169531&g=183&r=Milo

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2010/10/07/fed-is-banking-on-phony-wealth-effect/

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/10/08/The-Next-Investment-Disaster.aspx

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=556

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/10/october-8-2010-wile-es-suspended.html

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=557

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/10/october-5-2010-800-pound-gorilla-on.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard240.html

http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=812

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2010/10/04/insolvency-too.aspx

http://www.thedailybell.com/1436/Doug-Casey-on-the-Violence-of-the-Storm-the-Destruction-of-the-Middle-Class-and-the-Coming-Gold-Standard.html

http://theburningplatform.com/blog/2010/10/06/consumer-deleveraging-commercial-real-estate-collapse/

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/coming-middle-class-anarchy.html

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Samprimary
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I saw lewrockwell.com in there, take a shot
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Danlo the Wild
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Link

[Formatted link (dead anyway) to stop horizontal page scroll. --PJ]

[ December 07, 2010, 03:07 PM: Message edited by: Papa Janitor ]

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Danlo the Wild
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It amazes me how few Americans care about the most important issue facing us now and in the future. Bernanke's assassinating the dollar, giving all our wealth to the banks and destroying our country.
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MrSquicky
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quote:
I predicted the Dow Jones hitting 7000 BEFORE DECEMBER.
Tick tock. Tick tock.
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MrSquicky
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We apparently only have less than 2 hours left for the Dow to drop over 4000 points. You could make a massive fortune shorting...well, pretty much anything, if this were to occur.
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Samprimary
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LOOK OUT
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Samprimary
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LOOK OUT GUYS HERE IT COMES, THIS IS THE BIG ONE
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Danlo the Wild
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Ok. I was wrong.

I was wrong to pick an actual date like "Oh. 5000 by December 1, 2010".

I can tell you one thing for sure, the downward Velocity of the economic Vortex is spinning much faster.

Also, it is now on record that the Federal Reserve is pumping anywhere from $8 billion to $50 billion -A-DAY- into the Stock Market to create the "Wealth Effect".

Will we get Inflation when all this money moves from the sidelines into the economy?

Will we get deflation from all the Toxic Assets and Maturing Debt?

Will we get biflation from a combination of both?

Or, will we get Hyper Inflation and the collapse of the Dollar?

The Super Villains who caused the 'almost' collapse of he Economy in 2008 have been rewarded with all the cash they can handle and more political power than society can handle.

You can dance your little dance and sing your song about me, but you know that I am right. The whole world economy hangs by a few strings, and a small group of very evil men hold the strings.

Global economics is too hard for the majority of American's brains or souls to handle, the Truth is horrifying. Dancing with the Stars is more their speed.

We've given the global banks over $30 trillion dollars in free cash and guarantees. We've allowed Geithner/ Paulson/Bernanke/Bush /Obama to rape and pillage our nation.

I may be off by a week, a month or a year, but the Global Economy was on the verge of total collapse in 2008, and all we've done is made every financial problem worse, if you do the math, this Fiat currency has to collapse. Soon.

The period of Lawlessness is almost upon us.

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Rakeesh
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How has it taken you this long to reach the foundation of doomsaying, Thor? Don't be specific!
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Samprimary
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"As you can see from my inaccurate prediction, we are obviously circling the drain even faster!"
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Danlo the Wild
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Samprimary do you even know what economics is?
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MrSquicky
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Thor,
I don't think that people's reaction to you is due to them not thinking the economic problems facing America are not serious, but rather than you aren't. Or rather, that you are not worth taking seriously.

These are large and complicated problems that call for detailed and responsible consideration, not the childish screeching that you do.

I seriously doubt you even understand what the DJIA is, let alone have actually done any serious calculations or analysis about what will happen to it. Your completely off base prediction was not based on anything other than you wanting the economy to tank.

Unfortunately, your sort of ignorant hyper-alarmism is a common response to our situation. I believe we'd be better off if people like you got away from thinking you have a clue about this sort of thing. We'd actually be better off if you were absorbed in everyday pop culture.

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Darth_Mauve
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Thor, two questions.

1) Why would the supervillian bankers want to destroy world currency? You speculate that in the chaos they will use their power to create an uber-world-state and uber-world-currency. How? If their power comes from their control of the economy, when the economy is destroyed so will their power be destroyed. A banker becomes nothing by a fat man with a big empty vault if money becomes worthless. You call the dollar the "world currency" one minute, then say that once its destroyed they can replace it with--a world currency. Since they control one "world currency" why the need to replace it? It would be simpler to just continue conquering the world with their ownership of that one currency.

2) What do you suggest we do, besides finding someone to blame? If these people are as powerful as you say they are, what would you have us do? Pointing fingers and crying, "They are doing this" doesn't solve the problems.

Note, those that spout "End Of Times" conspiracy theories all have one thing in common. They believe that they are special enough to be part of the most important part of human history.

In other words--Delusions of Grandeur, Paranoia, and Ego issues.

So if you are spouting these theories, be prepared to meet with those who have seen such paranoid prophesies fizzle before.

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Herblay
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This is sad.

I remember when all the kooks were convinced that the world was ending in 2000. It was fun to redicule them, but this just leaves me feeling morose.

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MrSquicky
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Nah. It's ending in 2012. As I understand it, that's Sarah Palin's campaign strategy: "The world's ending anyway. Why not go out with a laugh? Vote Palin in 2012."
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Danlo the Wild
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Darth_M.

1 ) The Dollar is the Main currency the world uses but it is not "THE" global currency. When the World Economy grinds to a halt and breaks, the International Monetary Fund is ready with the SDR (Special Drawing Rights).

For the basic millionaire Banker, I believe their faith in the economy is much like 95% of all Americans, "The economy CANNOT break". So the banker thinks it will get bad, but not really, really bad.

Now, the Super Power players, they've had years and years to put these plans in action. Those who control the world currency control the world.

How many times through out history have we seen a collection of people ATTEMPT to conquer the whole world? It's happened almost once a generation since the dawn of time.

How many times have Fiat (Paper based) Currencies crashed? Every single time. It happened to China before Genghis Khan invaded. It happened to Germany before Hitler took power. It happens every time. The King or the Banks or the Government or a combo of all three always prints more paper money than they've got tangible assets to back the paper with.

2) What do we do?

FIRST AND FOREMOST, FIRE BEN BERNANKE!!!!!!

Please watch this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw

He's been wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong about every aspect of the economy since he was appointed by Bush and then Re-appointed by Obama.

He's printed tens of trillions of dollars in the last 5 years, he's done something NO Fed Head has ever done, which is lower the interest rates to ZERO. And he's had 5 years to "Help unemployment" and in those 5 years, unemployment / under employment has risen to 22%.

HE SHOULD BE FIRED.

The second thing I'd do to fix it ALL.

Any INDIVIDUAL AMERICAN would be allowed to donate as much money as they wanted to any politicians, BUT, if you are not a singular American, YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO DONATE MONEY TO OUR POLITICIANS.

This is simple and an EXCELLENT fix to many of our problems.

The idea that we let Global Corporations donate billions to our National politicians so they can co-write legislation is the DAGGER in the heart of America, our Liberty, and the Free Markets.

Why does Pepsi deserve better rights than a man or woman? AT&T can break 1000 laws and never go to jail. People go to jail when they break one law.

America has two choices, Slavery or Default.

I choose Default and rebuild.

....but America believes that the solution to the problem is "Fire Barack Obama in 2012". That's a good idea and will happen. But it isn't a 'solution' by any means.

We still have no idea how to handle our $200 trillion dollars in debts and liabilities.

Oh.

And.

Hey.

Let us keep an eye on December 7th and 15th.

December 7th, I think is the day JPMorgan gets caught with its pants down on 1.5 trillion dollars in naked silver shorts, AND...

December 15th, IF Bush's Tax cuts for the Uber Rich aren't extended you could see a HUGE SELL OFF in people locking in the 15% Capital Gains rate. But, I think we will see the Tax cuts extended for everyone, AND the Unemployment Insurance extended for a year.

If we're printing a Quadrillion dollars, why not buy everything?

thanks,

T

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Danlo the Wild
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DOW JONES @ 20,000 by Valentines day, 2011!
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TheHumanTarget
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When did Hatrack become overrun with sociopaths and trolls?
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Samprimary
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what, what sociopaths where?
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