posted
Personally, I think the danger of Iran gaining nuclear weapons is being seriously over blown. The proliferation of nuclear weapons is terrifying and the more countries that have them, the greater the risk is that someone will eventually use them.
But if Iran does get nuclear weapons, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will hardly be the first paranoid, crazy, oppressive crazy leader to have them. We survived USSR, China, Pakistan and North Korea getting nuclear weapons and we will in all probability survive Iran getting nukes. Ahmadinejad maybe dangerous, but he is not so crazy that he doesn't clearly understand that nuking Israel would result in the total obliteration of Iran nor is he so crazy he'd be willing to sacrifice his entire nation to get rid of Israel.
If any one in Iran has two cents worth of brains, they want nuclear weapons because its obvious that having nuclear weapons is the best deterrence against an attack from the US or Israel or any other enemy. Its there best chances of preserving their sovereignty in the face of mounting international pressure. If this is their motivation for developing a nuclear weapon, the threats western countries are making against Iran can only serve to solidify their resolve to get nuclear weapons as fast as possible.
Posts: 12591 | Registered: Jan 2000
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quote:Ahmadinejad maybe dangerous, but he is not so crazy that he doesn't clearly understand that nuking Israel would result in the total obliteration of Iran nor is he so crazy he'd be willing to sacrifice his entire nation to get rid of Israel.
It's worth pointing out that he isn't really in charge over there, and he'll be gone pretty soon.
There's even talk that Khamenei will abolish his office entirely.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
From my POV, the danger isn't so much that Iran will gain nuclear weapons, but that Israel will bomb Iran, possibly dragging the US into it as well. This should have pretty widespread economic and social consequences.
For me, the title isn't so much "Ready for a Nuclear Iran?" (answered "yes") but "Ready for Israel/US to bomb Iran?" (answered "no")
Posts: 7593 | Registered: Sep 2006
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posted
Given Obama's cool relationship with Israel for the past couple years, I'm skeptical of how automatic US support for Israel's bombing Iran would be.
Personally, I'm really not a fan of helping them directly on this one. We can live with a nuclear Iran. If Israel can't, that's their business.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Well, that's his personal relationship. But there's still the party, the electorate, and the election to consider.
Let's just say, if it happens, I'd hope that you're right. But I definitely wouldn't be betting that way.
Posts: 7593 | Registered: Sep 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Mucus: Well, that's his personal relationship. But there's still the party, the electorate, and the election to consider.
Let's just say, if it happens, I'd hope that you're right. But I definitely wouldn't be betting that way.
If it happens before Nov. 2012, I doubt Obama would risk going against Israel. If Obama it happens after the elections, all bets are off (whether Obama is reelected or not).
[ December 02, 2011, 02:13 PM: Message edited by: The Rabbit ]
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quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: You are also forgetting that China and Russia very nearly went to war. If Russia had a presence in Manchuria or even Japan, I'm betting that China and Russia would have gone to war. If not then, then Russia and the US during the Korean conflict definitely would have.
Operation August Storm was done in consultation with Chiang Kai Shek, who had met with and was allied with Stalin, recall that Stalin had basically told Mao "stfu newb and sit down" as he wanted China to be a bufferzone. China and the Soviet Union, much less Chiang's China were at no point even remotely plausibly likely to fight a war. The Soviet occupation of Manchuria, a puppet state of Japan and originally ceded in 1931 by Chiang wasn't even remotely unwelcome in China, only when they took apart its industry and infrastructure (when the PRC was formed) did relations start souring with China.
Right, I'm talking about post WWII, which is when Chiang was pushed out of China, and the Korean conflict.
Posts: 14316 | Registered: Jul 2005
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Russian pilots were flying Migs during Korea. We basically were at war. It was just in everyone's best interests to pretend like we weren't.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
I just hope that this doesn't happen because Europe - for sure the UK in a big way, probably Spain in a minor way - would be involved without question (look at Libya) and at the moment everything is looking pretty bleak and messy over here on an economic level.
The world, probably even including the US, just can't really afford another war right now.
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