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» Hatrack River Forum » Active Forums » Books, Films, Food and Culture » Is the market about to crash again?

   
Author Topic: Is the market about to crash again?
Stephan
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The S&P 500 historical chart shows that right now it looks an awful lot like it did at the beginning of 2000 and the middle of 2007 before both quick declines. From the 1950's onward the S&P was always on a slow and steady climb. Since skyrocketing in the 90's it has has been rather turbulent.

After the 2007 fiasco I put a bunch of money into an S&P 500 fund, knowing it would go back up. I just sold every penny of it. Seriously taking a hard look at the family retirement portfolio right now.

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Xavier
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I'm looking at the historical graph, and I'm not sure I see it. What is it about the chart that makes you think its due for a crash?
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Stephan
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I am sure there are many other factors that caused the last two. But I just see three very steep inclines in the last 20 years. The first two right before a major decline, and us currently at the top of the third.

I am looking at the Yahoo Chart for the S&P on the max setting.

S&P Chart

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Xavier
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Ah, guess I wasn't pulled back far enough. Though I actually prefer Google's view to Yahoo's, it seems to show the fluctuations a bit more fine-grained.

I see your point, though I'm not sure that future results are so easy to predict as that. The great (and horrible) thing about the market is that if enough people think similarly to you and start selling, it will cause the crash. Gotta love self-fulfilling prophecies.

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twinky
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I shuffled most of my NA investments from index funds to more stable funds last year. I wasn't pretty uncertain about what would happen in the Eurozone, and wasn't willing to risk a round of large losses, so I effectively decided to park for the year, forgo possible gains, and reevaluate at the end of this year.
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King of Men
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I hope you're right. Cheap stocks, yum.
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Stephan
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quote:
Originally posted by King of Men:
I hope you're right. Cheap stocks, yum.

That's my thinking. I had a nice return after the last crash. With about 20 years at least until retirement, I hope to get some of those.
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Blayne Bradley
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I'm seeing conflicting information, on one hand it looks like we might enter another recession but on the other hand the economy might be recovering. Depending on what you look at.
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Hobbes
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quote:
Originally posted by Blayne Bradley:
I'm seeing conflicting information, on one hand it looks like we might enter another recession but on the other hand the economy might be recovering. Depending on what you look at.

Congratulations Blayne: you are now an economist. All you need to do in order to become a pundit is recognize that other factors may, in fact, indicate they we will stay the same.

Hobbes [Smile]

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Xavier
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And the great thing about being economist, is that whichever direction you predict (crash or boom), it will happen eventually. So even if you are totally wrong and the other occurs, you'll be right someday and you can feel vindicated when it does.
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King of Men
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No, no. For such advanced prognostication as that, a pundit is entitled to require that you first cross his palm with silver. I assume nobody is paying Blayne to post his opinions, so you only get the basic version of his punditry.

All that aside, the gyrations of the stock market are pretty well decoupled, at least in the short run, from what the underlying real economy does. We could get a stock market crash whether the economy is recovering or not.

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El JT de Spang
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Wait, you guys aren't paying Blayne?
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Stephan
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quote:
Expenditures by Standard & Poor's 500 Index companies will fall 1.3 percent in 2013 after three years of growth, according to more than 10,000 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Companies from Verizon Communications Inc. to Rockwell Collins Inc. (COL) said they don't plan to boost investment amid concern political leaders will fail to agree on a plan that would avert more than $600 billion of spending cuts and tax increases that threaten to throw the U.S. into another recession.
Bears say CEO pessimism will sap the rally that boosted the S&P 500 12 percent this year and note that the last time capital spending declined was at the end of 2008, just before stocks slumped to a 12-year low. Bulls point out that estimates for corporate spending show any decline will be limited and say the improving U.S. economy will lift equity valuations, now 12 percent below the 58-year average, Bloomberg data show.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-held-hostage-ceos-plan-102712782.html
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King of Men
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Additionally, the augurs seemed off their feed this morning; but on the other hand the liver of the white cockerel sacrificed to Juno had a particularly fine teardrop shape, which is a sure sign of prosperity to come.
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advice for robots
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Is it possible to have a less confidence-inspiring name than "Standard & Poor"? How did that organization ever get off the ground on Wall Street?
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