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» Hatrack River Forum » Active Forums » Books, Films, Food and Culture » Malaysia Airlines loses contact with plane en route to Beijing with 239 aboard

   
Author Topic: Malaysia Airlines loses contact with plane en route to Beijing with 239 aboard
Derrell
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The plane just disappeared over Viet Nam. No radar contact or radio contact.
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BlackBlade
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I believe Malaysian vessels have found oil slicks consistent with a downed plane, and with it being over 20 hours since they've heard from the plane I think we should expect the worst. :\
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Derrell
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Unfortunately, I agree with your take on it. I honestly don't think they'll find any survivors. [Frown] I read somewhere that this is the second Boeing triple 7 to crash in 6 months.
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Mucus
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That was probably a reference to the Asiana crash, only three deaths in that one. I hope they find out what happened here.
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Lyrhawn
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Reports are that two of the passengers were flying on stolen visas.

It was the safest part of the flight, no inclement weather, on a plane with a sterling safety record and an experienced flight crew.

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Mucus
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From what I understand, they had stolen passports, but not necessarily visas.
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Lyrhawn
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Sorry, you're right, passports.

One of them was from an Italian man who had his passport stolen recently. The other I think was a Swiss man who had his reported stolen months or years ago. Kind of thought that would have been flagged by security.

No proof of any kind that these things are related to the crash. And no claims of responsibility from terror groups.

Kind of scary actually. A friend of mine from high school just flew on that airline from Singapore recently.

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Mucus
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Hmmm, sounds like they are up to four people with suspect identities.
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Lyrhawn
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Does this sort of thing happen often? Like, is this a detail the news might be focusing on although it happens with some regularity?
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Mucus
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No idea, I've read a bunch of speculation about the issue, but nothing so far from anyone with verified expertise in the area.
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Samprimary
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I guess there's hypothetical scenarios. My completely uneducated guess is one in which the plane has a catastrophic and full loss of a system, like the electrical system goes completely out, and the plane goes into a terminal descent that is nevertheless controlled enough to ensure that the plane does not break apart when it touches down.

That's if no debris (or not a lot of debris) is found.

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Bella Bee
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I doubt it was caused by the fraudulent passengers, as apparently they had connecting flights booked to Amsterdam. Which could be a cover, but sounds more like people trying to immigrate illegally or under assumed identities to Europe for whatever reason.

This reminds me a little of the Air France flight from Brazil that vanished suddenly when it went down due to pilot error 2009. The fact that they turned the plane back but didn't give a Mayday, could suggest that the pilots, as in that case, were confused about what was happening and why they had a problem flying the plane, and didn't realise until too late (in the Air France flight, only about 5 seconds before impact with the sea, when the alarm sounded) that they were really going to crash, or that they were too busy dealing with the problem to consider making a distress call.

The Air France plane wreckage was also not visible until ships arrived in the area, as the remains of the plane sank into the ocean. However, I believe in that case, as in this, fuel slicks were visible. Apparently there are two slicks, so the plane may have broken up. The wreckage would be smaller and probably more difficult to spot under the water.

Either way, it is terribly tragic and utterly horrible. I can only hope that the passengers were asleep and the plane went down at a gradual steady angle so that they never knew what was happening.

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Mucus
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Hmmm, up to five passengers with questionable identities, there is a questionable claim of responsibility linking it to the terrorist attack in Kunming, Interpol has essentially flamed Malaysia for not checking the database of stolen passports (which is disturbingly common apparently), and Malaysia Airlines is preemptively denying that it has a responsibility to check for valid passports.
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Lyrhawn
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What's the point of even having passports if no one has a responsibility to check them? That seems a silly denial of responsibility.
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Mucus
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It sounds like they're trying to duck responsibility basically, sounds like a pretty dumb policy to me.

In more detail:
quote:
Earlier, Malaysia Airlines had played down the use of two stolen passports, saying that any passengers headed to Beijing would have had to apply for a Chinese visa.
"To get a visa you need to submit your passport to the Chinese authorities and they get validated at that stage," said Hugh Dunleavy, a Malaysia Airlines executive vice president in Beijing.
However, the Telegraph confirmed with China Southern, the codeshare airline which made the economy-class bookings for the men travelling under the names "Luigi Maraldi" and "Christian Kozel" that both were merely transiting in Beijing and did not require a visa.
...
Dr Dunleavy said it was not Malaysia Airlines' responsibility to validate a passport. "We just need to make sure that if we see a passport, it doesn't look like it has been forged and it has a legitimate visa. We look to ensure they have a visa, if they have a visa and it looks legitimate and everything else about the customer is legitimate we will load them on the plane," he said.
Another spokesman for the airline added that all the photographs had matched the passports of the passengers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10685857/Malaysia-Airlines-crash-terror-experts-investigate-four-stolen-passports.html

(They're definitely in left field about the visas, the telegraph has it correct in terms of the Chinese policy on visas)

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Lyrhawn
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The latest news is that tickets bought for the two originally reported stolen passports were bought in cash by an Iranian man, and that security footage reviews show the two men are not "Asian-looking." So illegal migration seems to be an unlikely explanation.

The man who bought the tickets said he bought them for two friend who wanted to return home to Europe.

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Orincoro
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quote:
Originally posted by Mucus:
That was probably a reference to the Asiana crash, only three deaths in that one. I hope they find out what happened here.

More of a crash landing really. I saw that plane when I flew into San Francisco in July. They still had it by the runway.
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Samprimary
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now Malaysia is saying it was hijacked.
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BlackBlade
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From the NYT Times.

quote:
The disappearance of the jet has mesmerized many in China, partly because nearly two-thirds of the 239 people aboard were Chinese citizens. After Mr. Najib’s statement Saturday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs demanded to know more, and said that China was sending technical experts to Malaysia.
[Big Grin]

Chinese people in Malaysia are a discriminated minority. All the upper level government positions are retained for Malay applicants. And the Chinese are limited on how many businesses they can own. The whole system stinks of who you know, not always what you know. Quite a lack of accountability.

So to have China telling Malaysia, "Not good enough, do your jobs, or we'll do them for you." is kinda awesome.

Also I totally read China and thought United States which means China's acting like us. I think I'm a fan of it.

[ March 15, 2014, 01:21 PM: Message edited by: BlackBlade ]

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Tuukka
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Malaysian-Chinese make up 25% of the population and largely run the Malaysian economy. They are discriminated politically, because they can't reach political positions of power. But since they largely run the business, and have done so for centuries, they have a huge amount of power in Malaysia.

This is what you can read from places like Wiki, and it's what everyone told me than I was in Malaysia back in 2009. I don't know if things have changed much since then.

Indians on the other hand are just cheap labor, and have no real power at all.

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Lyrhawn
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quote:
Originally posted by BlackBlade:
From the NYT Times.

quote:
The disappearance of the jet has mesmerized many in China, partly because nearly two-thirds of the 239 people aboard were Chinese citizens. After Mr. Najib’s statement Saturday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs demanded to know more, and said that China was sending technical experts to Malaysia.
[Big Grin]

Chinese people in Malaysia are a discriminated minority. All the upper level government positions are retained for Malay applicants. And the Chinese are limited on how many businesses they can own. The whole system stinks of who you know, not always what you know. Quite a lack of accountability.

So to have China telling Malaysia, "Not good enough, do your jobs, or we'll do them for you." is kinda awesome.

Also I totally read China and thought United States which means China's acting like us. I think I'm a fan of it.

China is more like the United States than probably most Chinese or even the rest of the world, are willing to admit.
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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by Tuukka:
Malaysian-Chinese make up 25% of the population and largely run the Malaysian economy. They are discriminated politically, because they can't reach political positions of power. But since they largely run the business, and have done so for centuries, they have a huge amount of power in Malaysia.

This is what you can read from places like Wiki, and it's what everyone told me than I was in Malaysia back in 2009. I don't know if things have changed much since then.

Indians on the other hand are just cheap labor, and have no real power at all.

From what I understand there are actually government quotas that require X number of businesses to be headed by a Malay. There are quite a few businesses where Chinese de facto run them, but they are still under the leadership of Malay men.
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BlackBlade
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quote:
“I believe Malaysia was defensive about this and embarrassed,” said Ernest Bower, a Southeast Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. With many Malaysians viewing China as a growing threat and competitor, their failure on radar detection sends a “signal to China and other neighbors that they are not able to use their maritime and aviation domain awareness capabilities to full effect.”
Yep.
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Geraine
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Tin Foil Hat time!

Some people think the plane may have been taken to an island with a runway, or another country, including Pakistan. Never mind that the countries it would have had to fly over would have picked it up on their radar / satellites.

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BlackBlade
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And now the Malay government is U-turning on the claim that the plane's location system was turned off at the precise time it would have needed to be to avoid detection.
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Mucus
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quote:
Originally posted by Geraine:
Some people think the plane may have been taken to an island with a runway, or another country, including Pakistan. Never mind that the countries it would have had to fly over would have picked it up on their radar / satellites.

Interestingly, it sounds like the official investigation is actually investigating this as a possible lead. Charitably, they might think the pilot flew under the radar, uncharitably, the Malaysians might think that other countries radar operators are as incompetent as their own.
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BlackBlade
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It's kind of surreal seeing all the theories being posited around the internet. A lot of them are well argued.

Sometimes I wonder if the US government could use Reddit to solve problems.

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tertiaryadjunct
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That worked real well after the Boston bombing (not). IMO professionals with actual expertise are likely to be a lot more accurate. Crowdsourcing is best left to simpler, menial tasks - say, putting post-disappearance satellite imagery up for examination so those millions of square miles can be much more quickly examined and flagged for anomalies.
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Aros
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They crash landed on an island. Nobody can find it because of all the electromagnetic interference and the fact that it travels through time.
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Bella Bee
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The problem is, on LOST everyone back in the world thought that they had already found the plane and all the dead passengers.

No-one was even looking for them anymore.

But Chinese Charles Widmore probably knows where they are.

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BlackBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by tertiaryadjunct:
That worked real well after the Boston bombing (not). IMO professionals with actual expertise are likely to be a lot more accurate. Crowdsourcing is best left to simpler, menial tasks - say, putting post-disappearance satellite imagery up for examination so those millions of square miles can be much more quickly examined and flagged for anomalies.

Sure, always have experts working with the facts. But yeah like you said, giving the mundane work over to the masses has been a very effective way to save on computational power.
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Sean Monahan
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quote:
Originally posted by Aros:
They crash landed on an island. Nobody can find it because of all the electromagnetic interference and the fact that it travels through time.

Interestingly, the Lost producers and cast recently got together for a ten year anniversary panel to talk about the show, and they requested that no one ask questions about the Malaysia Airlines flight as it would be in bad taste.
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Lyrhawn
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I'll post the link if I find it tomorrow, but there was an article from a pilot who was saying the conspiracy stuff in this investigation is ludicrous. There was likely an electrical fire that made them trip the breakers. That killed communications. They climbed and dove to try to kill the fire then turned west for the closest airport. Even the smoke from the fire knocked them all out, they kept flying on autopilot, for hours into the Indian Ocean

quote:
Originally posted by tertiaryadjunct:
That worked real well after the Boston bombing (not). IMO professionals with actual expertise are likely to be a lot more accurate. Crowdsourcing is best left to simpler, menial tasks - say, putting post-disappearance satellite imagery up for examination so those millions of square miles can be much more quickly examined and flagged for anomalies.

Except for the part where they falsely accused two Arab looking men, spread their picture around the internet, where it was picked up by news outlets, and they were heavily harassed for days.

I think reddit does some great things.

I also think as a community they have a large capacity for spiraling out of control, leaping to conclusions, and hysteria.

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BlackBlade
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According to the WP the course correction was entered into the computer 12 minutes before the copilot said goodnight to traffic control. Assuming that's accurate (right?) I think that rules out fire.
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Lyrhawn
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Perhaps.

But nothing else makes any more sense.

Reports have stressed that only a pilot would know how to make those changed. And pilots have many ways of signaling there is a hijacking. Plus their flight behavior was erratic and makes no sense for a hijacking.

So whatever happened, the pilots had to be willful participants. Either a pilot with thousands of flight hours decided to become a terrorist, but not a very good one because he made his move before shutting off the traneponder, or there was a problem on the plane, and communication suffered.

Pilots are taught to navigate and fly before communicating. If there was an emergency, maybe they turned west and south to try to land, but when smoked filled the cabin, they said good night as a good bye.

It had holes, but it makes the most sense of anything I've heard.

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tertiaryadjunct
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
Except for the part where they falsely accused two Arab looking men, spread their picture around the internet, where it was picked up by news outlets, and they were heavily harassed for days.

I think reddit does some great things.

I also think as a community they have a large capacity for spiraling out of control, leaping to conclusions, and hysteria.

I'm... Glad you agree.
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Lyrhawn
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I missed the parenthesis. My bad.
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Mucus
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyrhawn:
I'll post the link if I find it tomorrow, but there was an article from a pilot who was saying the conspiracy stuff in this investigation is ludicrous ...

If anyone is curious, this was the Goodfellow who proposed the theory. https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts I first saw it when it was picked up by James Fallows (a "China watcher" (needs a better term)).

Note that the theory does seem to conflict with the radar sightings of the flight going north west in the strait of Malacca and the two current corridors of search based on the last radar ping.

In the comments, Goodfellow addresses the former as the Malaysian's simply being incompetent again (which seems pretty reasonable) but I can't find an explanation for the latter.

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vineyarddawg
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---- MILD SPOILERS FOR ENCHANTMENT ----

I didn't want to bring this up too soon and seem to be making an unnecessarily maudlin or inappropriate statement... but I couldn't be the only OSC reader who started thinking about the episode with Baba Yaga making an airplane disappear in Enchantment, could I?

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BlackBlade
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As far as I know you were, but now that's all I'll think about.
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Papa Moose
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You were not the only such reader.
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katdog42
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Looks like there were at least three of us!
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PSI Teleport
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Four.
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Kwea
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Five
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Mucus
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Wow, that's pretty crappy treatment. I've gotten better even with job interview rejections, yikes.

quote:
When the news came, at 9.46pm in Beijing, it was not face to face, or even in a language the relatives could understand.
Inside the conference room at the Lido hotel, phones began to beep with text messages in English, not Chinese.
After 16 days of doubt and mistrust, and heavy criticism of the calamitous misjudgements of the Malaysian authorities, the text message was a final insult.
It prompted rage from the families of the 154 Chinese on board the missing plane.
...
Later, Malaysia Airlines claimed they had told "the majority" of the relatives the news in person, not by text. But most of those gathered in Beijing said they had not been briefed before their phones buzzed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10719598/MH370-Relatives-grief-and-anger-as-survival-hopes-dashed-by-text-message.html
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